Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Nets thinking big, while Hawks clean house

Desperate to make a move to entice star point guard Derron Williams to re-sign with the team as they make their move to Brooklyn, the Nets pulled off a bold trade for what was once believed to be one of the league's most unmovable contracts.  The Nets will send a boatload of expiring contracts (Jordan Farmar, Johan Petro, Jordan Williams, Anthony Morrow and DeShawn Stevenson), plus a future lottery protected pick (via Houston) to Atlanta for Joe Johnson.

Brooklyn takes a heavy risk in taking on Johnson's contract.  While he is coming off an All-Star season, he's far from deserving of holding the league's largest contract, which still has four years at nearly $90 million left on it.  The contract makes him overpaid now, but given that he's already 31 years old, it will look like an albatross long before it's over.  However, the Nets needed some insurance that they would begin their new era in Brooklyn with a marketable All-Star caliber talent on board in the event that Derron Williams bolts for his hometown Dallas team as a free agent this summer.  More importantly, Williams is said to be pleased with the trade, which may increase their chances of retaining him.  A starting lineup of Williams, Johnson, Gerald Wallace, Kris Humphries and Brook Lopez isn't a title contending core, but should certainly be enough to put them back in the playoffs. 

An interesting aspect of this deal is how it impacts the Nets pursuit of Dwight Howard.  The league's worst kept secret is that Orlando is willing to deal their disgruntled center before he bolts for free agency next year.  Howard has said that he wants to be traded to the Nets, which is the only team that he's willing to sign an extension with.  Any other team that trades for him now would risk losing him to free agency after a one year rental.  The problem is, the Johnson trade now means that Brooklyn won't have the cap space to sign Howard if he becomes a free agent next summer.  That takes away a lot of their leverage, as the only way they can acquire him now is via trade.  This might make it more likely that a team like Houston or Golden State would be willing to gamble on trading for him now with the hope of convincing him to stay, knowing that watching him bolt for Brooklyn would no longer be a concern. 

The Nets have yet to give up on their pursuit of Howard and are reportedly discussing a deal that would send Lopez, Humphries, and MarShon Brooks, along with multiple first round picks (2013, 2015, 2017) to Orlando for Howard.  Yet it seems that other teams are capable of trumping that offer.  If Orlando does indeed trade Howard then it only makes sense for them to do so in a way that allows them to quickly rebuild.  That means that in addition to acquiring multiple assets, they also need to unload a few bad contracts from their cap.  A team looking to acquire Howard should be prepared to also take back at least one of the group consisting of Hedo Turkoglu, Glen Davis, Chris Duhon, and Jason Richardson.  Unless a third team gets involved to help facilitate the trade, it appears unlikely that Brooklyn would be able to take back any of those salaries.

Other interested teams should be able to make Orlando a better offer.  Houston could offer Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, Kyle Lowry, plus one or more of the three rookies they just selected in the first round, or future first round picks.  By doing so, Orlando could dump the contracts of Davis and Duhon in the deal.  Perhaps the Clippers would even consider giving up Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan and Eric Bledsoe for Howard and Duhon.  Either of those options re-loads Orlando with more talent than the Brooklyn offer, while also freeing cap space with the removal of bad contracts.

If Brooklyn somehow manages to pull off another trade that acquires Howard to join Johnson and Williams then their off-season will have been a home run.  Yet it seems unlikely that they can provide Orlando with the best offer, so it will only happen if Howard pressures them into sending him where he wants or scares off other suitors by insisting he has no interest in playing for them.  If they don't end up with Howard, it appears their ceiling would be a second tier contender in the East, burdened with contracts that could look really ugly in a few years.

As for Atlanta, this deal basically allows them to take a mulligan on the outrageous contract their previous GM handed out to Johnson two years ago.  With the players they received in the deal, they will likely either buy them out, use them as assets in other trades or just allow them to play out the season to shed their expiring contracts leading into next summer.  In a separate deal, they also managed to ship Marvin Williams (2 years, $15 million remaining) to Utah for Devin Harris (1 year, $8.5 million).  Between the two deals, the Hawks save nearly $80 million in long term contracts by trading two over priced players for expiring deals.  Considering they had become a team unable to break through the ceiling of being a second round playoff exit, this was a team that needed to blow things up.  That's exactly what they've done.  Now they can be major players in the free agent market next year, when Howard could be a free agent.  The Hawks aren't currently on Howard's list of preferred destinations, but he is from Atlanta and is close friends with Josh Smith.  If Howard makes it to free agency next year and Brooklyn doesn't have the cap space to sign him, Atlanta may become an option for him. 

If they prefer not to risk waiting for free agency, the Hawks could consider offering a package revolving around Al Horford, Jeff Teague and draft picks to Orlando for Howard.  That would allow them to build around Howard.  It would likely convince Smith to re-sign long term, while still preserving enough cap space to make a run at other free agents next year (perhaps even Chris Paul?). 

The Nets appear to be going all in to revamp their roster to win now, while the Hawks are hoping for a quick rebuilding project.  Both come with a fair amount of risk if the pieces don't fall the way they hope, particularly when it comes to the uncertainty of Howard's future.  However, it also puts both franchises in position to become forces to be reckoned with in the East.

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