Early Free Agency Winners & Losers

It seems like the rumors have been swirling for months, but NBA Free Agency didn't officially begin until July 1st.  Teams couldn't officially sign or trade players until July 11th.  Needless to say, it's still relatively early in the process, but we've already seen a flurry of player movement this week.  With most of the big names already off the market, let's take a look at some of the teams that have gotten off to a great start this off-season, as well as others that have made some questionable moves.

Keep in mind that it's still early in the off-season.  There is still time for teams to bolster their roster with the remaining free agents or swing a trade that could improve their outlook from what we see now.

Winners

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks were busy early by getting involved in the off-season's first blockbuster trade.  New GM Danny Ferry had a lot of work to do to clean up the mess of his predecessors, who had built a team that appeared to have topped out with a second round playoff ceiling.  His first move was to unload Joe Johnson's enormous contract on the Nets for a pile of expiring contracts.  Johnson is an All-Star player, but not close to being worth the max contract that makes him one of the league's highest paid players.  As his game begins to deteriorate, that contract will be a cap clogging albatross that could have hamstrung the franchise for years.  Now it's someone else's problem.  They also managed to unload Marvin Williams, a useful player that had become a disappointment after never living up to his high draft spot (remember, he was drafted ahead of Chris Paul and Deron Williams).  They took back Devin Harris' expiring contract in that deal, meaning they will have even more money coming off their books after this season.  These moves may appear to be a step back for now, but it sets them up for a considerable make over next season, when they'll have the cap space to chase an elite free agent or two.  Atlanta native Dwight Howard is rumored to be one of their targets.  Now that Brooklyn appears to be a long shot, would D12 give his hometown a look next summer?  The Hawks could also entice Orlando in a trade this summer with a package involving Al Horford and Jeff Teague.  Either way, Atlanta now has to be considered one of the top threats to obtain Howard, which should keep his friend Josh Smith interested in sticking around past this year.  None of that would have been possible without first unloading those burdensome long term contracts, which makes their moves thus far a success.

Boston Celtics

The C's wrapped up priority #1 before the free agency period even began by signing Kevin Garnett to a three year extension.  That was a huge win for Boston, considering KG was considering retirement.  Instead of rebuilding, the Celtics are re-loading.  Brandon Bass agreed to a modest new three year deal after opting out of his player option.  A healthy Jeff Green is expected to sign a new deal and show the team he's capable of living up to the expectations that enticed them to trade for him in the Kendrick Perkins deal two years ago.  The only major loss the team has suffered this off-season was when Ray Allen spurned their offer to take his talents to South Beach for half the price.  That one had to sting a bit, but it wasn't unexpected.  Danny Ainge acted swiftly in securing a contingency plan in case Allen didn't return by signing Jason Terry.  As tough as it is to see the Big Three broken up after their five year run together, Terry is a better fit for this team right now.  He's two years younger, healthier and more comfortable coming off the bench.  The former sixth man of the year should become a potent scoring weapon off the bench.  Expect the Jet to fit right in with this veteran team and play an important role.  A team that was only 8 minutes away from advancing to the Finals last season now appears stronger than ever.

Dallas Mavericks
Plan A was to try to lure Deron Williams and/or Dwight Howard to Dallas, but that didn't work out.  Neither did their plan B of trying to bring back Steve Nash.  As far as Plan C's go, the Mavs did ok though.  It may not have been splashy, but convincing Chris Kamon to sign on a one year, $8 million deal was a solid move.  They then signed-and-traded back up center, Ian Mihinmi, for Darren Collison and Dahanty Jones.  Both are on expiring deals and both provide decent upgrades at needed positions.  They also won the bidding on the recently amnestied Elton Brand, for the very reasonable price of $2.1 million.  The best part is, Dallas was able to make these moves to improve the team for this year, while keeping their salary cap clean for a big splash next summer.  They now have to be considered among the favorites for Dwight Howard, if he ever makes it to free agency.

LA Lakers

The Lakers shocked the world by somehow convincing their hated rivals from Phoenix to give up their most beloved star.  Steve Nash gives the Lakers a huge upgrade at their weakest position.  While his talents would have gone to waste a couple years ago during the Phil Jackson era, the Lakers no longer run the triangle offense under Mike Brown, which means they need a capable point guard to run the offense.  Kobe is getting too old to run the team by himself and his teammates are getting tired of him playing hero ball all the time.  Nash is just the right guy to take the pressure off Kobe, distribute the ball enough to keep his big men happy and chip in with his own scoring when needed with his elite shooting skills.

New Orleans Hornets
Their lottery luck wasn't the only good part to their off-season.  Drafting Anthony Davis with the top overall pick, while adding Austin Rivers with the 10th, was a good start, but they didn't stop there.  The Hornets cleared enough cap space by dealing Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza away to ensure they could match the offer sheet that Eric Gordon signed with Phoenix.  It was essential to the Hornets that they keep the centerpiece of the Chris Paul trade from last year.  Even if Gordon seems hesitant to commit to New Orleans long term, by matching the offer sheet of their restricted free agent they'll ensure he stays at least one more season while giving them the chance to sell him on the idea of staying long term with this young core.  It also left them plenty of room to acquire Ryan Anderson in a sign-and-trade deal.  The Hornets have some issues to figure out in how to utilize their backcourt of Gordon/Rivers and frontcourt of Anderson/Davis.  Neither pair seems to fit together well, but the talent is clearly there.

Losers

Brooklyn Nets

As they prepare to move into their new building in Brooklyn, the Nets have been anxious to make a big splash.  They have certainly been busy this off-season, but it has not all gone according to plan.  Their first step was re-signing Deron Williams, which was a big win for them.  Unfortunately, what they had to do in order to convince him to come back might have made their long term future worse.  First they traded for Joe Johnson, which seemed like a move made to appease D-Will, or as insurance that they would have an All-Star talent on the roster if Williams didn't come back.  He'll make the team better in the short term from a talent standpoint, but there is a reason that he was once considered to be one of the league's most unmovable contracts (4 years, $89 million remaining).  Their regrettable decision to make a deadline deal last season to trade what turned out to be the #6 pick in the draft for Gerald Wallace forced them to commit 4 years and $40 million to a wing player with declining athleticism.  He's still a solid player, but he's no better than a third or fourth option on a contending team.  That's a lot of money to spend on that type of player, but after having paid such a steep price to trade for him, they couldn't just let him walk.  The Nets then went all in to try to trade for Dwight Howard (wouldn't that #6 pick have helped with that, had they kept it?).  After scrambling to gather the right pieces to entice Orlando, they ultimately fell short.  They signaled their intent to give up on their pursuit of the superstar center when they re-signed Brook Lopez to a max level deal for 4 years, $60 million.  Granted big men often get overpaid, but this seems like an awful lot to pay for one that missed most of last year with a foot injury and collected a very poor rebound rate for a player his size, even when he was healthy.  The deal means Lopez, one of the key components in any deal for Howard, can't be traded until January 15th.  With their chances at an off-season trade slipping away, the Nets had no choice but to lock up Lopez now, or else risk another team giving the restricted free agent an offer sheet.  Even if they matched the offer to retain Lopez, he wouldn't be eligible to be traded for a full year.  Since the Joe Johnson deal destroyed any chance of them having enough cap space to chase D12 as a free agent next summer, that would have left them with no chance of ever finding a way to get Howard to his preferred destination.  Now they can only hope that Orlando will cave to their low ball offer before this season's trade deadline - assuming they don't ship him somewhere else first.

Chicago Bulls
They aren't losers on this list for anything that they've done, but more for what has been done to them.  The Rockets put in an offer sheet to restricted free agent Omer Ashik for 3 years, $25 million.  That's a pretty steep price for a back up center, but it gets worse when you view the breakdown of the deal.  The first two years are for a manageable figure of about $5 million each, but the third year his price jumps to $15 million!  Even if the young center continues to develop, he's still likely a bench player with limited offensive skills.  Yet he has been such an important piece of a stifling defensive second unit that it would be difficult to let him walk.  Their team takes a hit by losing him, but keeping him means they will likely need to either use the amnesty clause on Carlos Boozer or trade another high priced veteran at some point in the next two years to avoid a very costly luxury tax bill in Asik's third year.  With Derrick Rose likely lost for most of this season, the Bulls are wise not to invest heavily in this free agent crop, but it could become very costly just to retain their own players.

Indiana Pacers
It's hard to figure out what the Pacers were thinking when they shipped Collison and Jones to Dallas for Mihinmi.  He'll give them a solid option as a back up center, but they could have had him as an unrestricted free agent (probably for less money than the 2 year, $16 million they gave him too) without having to give up anything.  Granted those players were expendable to them, but were clearly valuable to a team like Dallas.  I don't understand why they didn't at least get a lottery protected draft pick in the deal.  Aside from that, they've yet to do much.  They are expected to match the offer sheet that Portland put out on Roy Hibbert.  That will be big for them, as Hibbert is an important part of their core.  Same goes for re-signing George Hill, but retaining their own players doesn't do anything to make the team better and the cost to do so was more expensive then they would have liked.

Orlando Magic

They should have traded Dwight Howard a year ago.  Or even six months ago.  Now they still have the same mess on their hands, but with less leverage to get nearly as much in return as they could have if they had pulled the trigger sooner.  Howard insisted on being traded to Brooklyn, but their attempts to work out a deal proved futile, so the Nets are no longer an option.  The teams still interested in trading for him are hesitant to do so knowing it will likely be only a one year rental.  Perhaps they can still work out a deal with Houston, the team most willing to take the risk on a rental for Howard.  If not, they risk not only losing Howard for nothing next summer, but miss out on a prime opportunity to unload several of their bad contracts.  Their inability to rid themselves of contracts like Turkoglu, Richardson, Davis and Duhon may have cost them their chance to keep Ryan Anderson - their second best players last season.

Incomplete

Houston Rockets
Few teams have been as active as the Rockets this off-season without actually accomplishing much of anything.  They fixed a logjam of unhappy point guards by both trading Kyle Lowry and letting Goran Dragic go.  Marcus Camby, Sam Dalembert and Chase Budinger were also key contributors that followed them out the door.  They got back a pile of young, cheap players, expiring contracts and draft picks, all of which seem to be setting up for a blockbuster deal that has yet to happen.  They appear prepared to go all in on Dwight Howard, even though they know he's said he won't commit to them long term.  If they can pull off a deal for D12, even on a one year rental, they become off-season winners.  However, this wouldn't be the first time they've tried to package middling assets for a star player (Bosh, Gasol), only to come up short.  They also put in offers for restricted free agents Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik, but their current teams are likely to match each of them.  Darryl Morey is active as always, but so far it's yet to pay off.

Minnesota Timberwolves
The primary objective for the Wolves this season was to target Nicolas Batum.  In order to pry away a restricted free agent of his caliber, you have to be willing to overpay to convince their current team not to match.  Apparently they haven't overpaid by enough, as Portland seems willing to match their offer.  If not, he'd be a great fit in Minnesota.  Their other big move so far was signing Brandon Roy for $10.4 million over two years.  That seems like a lot for a guy that retired less than a year ago due to chronic knee issues.  If he's healthy enough to get back to anywhere near his former star potential then he's a steal, but he comes with enormous risk.