The Celtics currently only have 4 players under contract for next season - Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley and JaJuan Johnson. Those contracts total only about $30.5 million, which would be well below the expected salary cap of approximately $58 million. However, that doesn't mean that the Celtics will necessarily be able to dive into free agency on a spending spree. The system includes cap holds for impending free agents, which count against the salary cap until the players are either re-signed or their rights are renounced. Decisions will need to be made regarding the large contracts of Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen that will be coming off the books this summer. Renouncing their rights would free up cap room, but would also cost them their Bird Rights. They could still be re-signed after that, but the team would be unable to go over the salary cap to do so.Looking ahead at the free agent pool, the Celtics may be best suited by reloading their roster rather than rebuilding it. The biggest fish on the market is Derron Williams, but the Celtics already have an elite point guard, plus Williams has made it clear his choices are between Brooklyn and Dallas. Steve Nash isn't an option for similar reasons and Tim Duncan isn't leaving San Antonio. Of the remaining free agents with star potential, most of them are restricted. Players like Roy Hibbert and Eric Gordon aren't likely to be let go by their current teams and it would take an offer that wildly overpays in order to pry them away. With that in mind, it's a relatively weak free agent pool. Boston will need to avoid over spending on mediocre talent just because they happen to be the best available (just ask Detroit how Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva worked out for them).
Danny Ainge's strategy this summer in building this team will hedge mainly on the decision of Kevin Garnett. It will be difficult to make many other moves without knowing whether or not he will return, and several of the team's other impending free agents may be interested in knowing if he's coming back before making their own decisions. KG is a fiercely loyal player, so it's unlikely he'd be wearing any other uniform besides Celtics green next season. Instead, his decision will come down to whether he wants to come back for at least one more year or if he's ready to hang up his sneakers and retire. It's hard to imagine someone with KG's intensity and competitiveness doing anything besides basketball, but his 36 year old body may be telling him otherwise. He's already admitted that the toll of the season wears on him and he finds it much more difficult to prepare for games then he did in the past. If I had to venture a guess, I suspect Garnett will be back next year. A one year deal in the $8-10 million range, perhaps with a player option for an additional season, should be enough to get it done. Coming off the year he just had, he could expect to earn more on the open market, but at this point I doubt money is his biggest concern. I'm sure he'd be willing to take a discount to stay in Boston, especially if the savings helped re-tool the roster to increase their chances of remaining a contender.
Ray Allen, on the other hand, seems less likely to return. He was less than pleased when his role shifted late last season to coming off the bench, which is what his role would continue to be if he does return now that Avery Bradley has earned the starting spot with his stellar defensive play and rapidly improving offensive game. Even at his age and coming off ankle surgery, the 37 year old will receive plenty of interest from other teams due to his sharpshooting skills. In Boston's favor is that Allen would likely only consider joining a contending team, but most of the top teams don't have the cap space to offer him as much as Boston can. It's been reported that there is mutual interest between Allen and Miami, but the Heat are over the luxury tax and could only afford to pay the tax payer's exemption of a little over $3 million. He'd also be forced to come off the bench behind Dwyane Wade, so his minutes could be even more scarce with the Heat in addition to the massive pay cut. The door certainly hasn't closed for Ray to return to Boston, but he's likely to at least test the waters and consider other destinations.As for the rest of the rotation players that can become free agents, at least a few of them are likely to return. Brandon Bass opted out of his player option, but there seems to be mutual interest in his return if the price is right for both sides. A qualifying offer has already been extended to Greg Stiemsma, so he's likely to be back and E'Twaun Moore could be re-signed as well. If the majority of the core of this team is retained then it's likely that some of the veterans, such as Mickael Pietrus and Keyon Dooling, could be brought back for a reasonable amount.
One of the big open questions the team faces this summer is whether they can bring back Jeff Green, who missed all of last season with a heart ailment. If he's healthy, he brings some much needed athleticism and scoring off the bench. Given that he remained around the team during his recovery, despite not technically having a contract (he was a restricted free agent who's offer was pulled back after the season ending heart condition was discovered), it seems likely that he's willing to stay. As long as his health checks out, he should be back. If nothing else, failing to re-sign Green would make the Kendrick Perkins trade look even worse, with a draft pick being the only remaining asset from that deal.
Speaking of that draft pick, it was just used in last night's draft. The Celtics drafted two players in the first round, both of whom we can also count in for roster spots. I really liked the Jared Sullinger pick. He's a top 10 talent in this draft who's stock plummeted after he was flagged with injury concerns with bulging discs in his back. The injury scared off the lottery teams, but with the 21st pick, the reward starts to outweigh the risk. Scouts think he's one of the best scoring forwards in this draft. The Celtics can really use his ability to score in the post, given that many of their other big men seem to be allergic to the paint. As long as the injury doesn't end up being a long term chronic issue, he could be a steal. The pick acquired in the Perkins deal last year (from the Clippers, through the Thunder) was the 22nd pick, which they used to select Fab Melo. I'm a bit skeptical on this pick. He's far from a polished product and doesn't rebound nearly well enough for someone his size. I think he may have been overvalued a bit due to the fact that he was one of the few seven footers in this draft. At least his size is an asset the teams needs. He probably won't contribute much anytime soon, but as a back up center he could develop into a better option than what they were getting from Stiemsma or Ryan Hollins. I'm not expecting much out of second round pick Kris Joseph, but he may make the team for his cheap rookie contract.My crystal ball is a bit cloudy, but I'm going to predict that KG will be brought back, while Ray will end up leaving. Once those huge dominoes fall into place, the rest will start to come together. I expect Green and Bass to be brought back. Let's say Pietrus and Stiemsma are as well. Add in the two first round picks that were just drafted and that puts the team at 11 players at a cost likely a little over $60 million. That means they'll still have one spot open on the active roster. Since they'll be under the luxury tax, they will have the option of using the full mid-level exception to fill that spot. A scoring wing player to bring off the bench would fill a need and the team is rumored to be exploring options such as OJ Mayo and Jamal Crawford. If they manage to reel in a scorer of that caliber at mid-level money the team will be in great shape.
NBA teams can only have 12 active players on their roster, but can have up to 15 under contract. Once the active roster is set, those remaining spots could be used on Moore, Joseph and perhaps a veteran such as Dooling or Marquis Daniels on minimum deals.
Given the lack of front line talent available to them this summer, the Celtics would be better of reloading rather than rebuilding. Given that this team came within minutes of reaching the Finals last season, these upgrades should make the team a contender for at least one more season. After that, the team can rebuild when there is a better free agent crop.
Then again, we've heard that before. So much for the three year plan.
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