MLB Playoffs: Divisional Series

The MLB postseason begins tonight with the American League teams kicking off the Divisional round.  There's nothing more intense than October baseball, a time when heroes are made and scapegoats are forever vilified.  The pressure can be suffocating, with every pitch, every swing, every catch capable of taking your breath away.  It's an adrenaline rush like no other, and it begins now.

Picking postseason winners is never an easy task because you never know how teams will perform under the bright lights of the big stage.  The team with the best record rarely wins the World Series and the hottest team over the final weeks of the regular season is far from a lock either, as history has shown.

With that in mind, I'll attempt to make my postseason predictions, then sit back and wait to be surprised.

Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays enter the postseason on a magical run that saw them erase a 9 game deficit in early September to come back and clinch the Wild Card on the final day of the season.  Their momentum and confidence is riding high, but they've been in a must win playoff mode for the past week and eventually that has to wear on them.  With a postseason start on the line, they were forced to pitch their top starters in the series finale against the Yankees.  They'll turn to rookie phenom Matt Moore for Game 1.  The September call up has a bright future, but he's pitched just over 9 full innings in the majors, including 1 start.  That's a lot to put on a young kid with so little big league experience.  The Rangers will have the luxury of starting ace CJ Wilson in Game 1, giving them a huge advantage out of the gate. 

The Rays win with pitching and defense, but their rotation depth is negated in a short series and there are some question marks in their bullpen (would you trust Kyle Farnsworth in the 9th inning of a playoff game?).  They had some clutch hits down the stretch, particularly from Evan Longoria, but the fact remains that they hit only .244 as a team for the season (only Seattle was worse in the AL), a far cry from the Rangers league leading .283.  The Rangers hit well at home, where the series will begin, and the Rays don't seem to have enough firepower to keep up.  With Wilson able to go twice in this series and the Rays potentially only able to use Shields and Price once, the pitching should be relatively even, so the Rangers big edge with the bats puts them ahead.
Prediction: Rangers in 4

New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers
Game 1 will feature a match up between two aces that likely will finish as the top two in AL Cy Young voting, with Justin Verlander taking the mound against CC Sabathia.  No team would be excited to have to face Verlander twice in a 5 game series, but if any team is built to match up with the Tigers, it's the Yankees.  Sabathia will give his team as good a chance as any at beating Verlander.

The problem is, what happens to the Yankees if they don't win with Sabathia on the mound?  The rest of the Yankees rotation behind him is questionable.  They'll avoid starting AJ Burnett at all costs in this series, but how much faith can they really put in Ian Nova and Freddy Garcia?  Perhaps Bartolo Colon can get another shot of stem cells to boost him back to the level he was at earlier this season.  Otherwise, the Yankees are in big trouble if they lose Game 1.  After Verlander, the Tigers will use Doug Fister, who has been a savior for their rotation depth since being acquired mid-season from Seattle (8-1, 1.79 ERA with Detroit).  He'll be followed by Max Scherzer, who despite bouts of wildness and inconsistency, is capable of shutting down an opposing lineup at any time.  Hope is not lost for Detroit if Verlander can't get the job done in both of his starts this series.  I'm not convinced the Yankees can say the same about Sabathia.

The edge that the Yankees do hold is on offense, but it's not as big of a difference as you might expect.  The Yankees were second in the league in runs this year, but Detroit surprisingly was 4th.  Miguel Cabrera is an MVP candidate, and we can all remember the impact he had as a young rookie during the Marlins World Series run back in 2003.  The Yankees are loaded with high priced talent of their own, but many of the stars in their lineup have historically failed to shine on the big stage of October (A-Rod, Teixeria, Cano). 

The Yankees are capable of shortening any game knowing they have the reliable Mariano Rivera and his All-Star set-up man David Robertson lurking in the bullpen, but Detroit's underrated late inning combo of Valverde and Benoit is just as capable.  Plus, the Yankees will need to rely on their starters getting to the 8th inning with a lead for that to be a factor anyway, which I'm skeptical of happening three times in this series.  The Yankees may be heavily favored because, well, they're the Yankees, but Detroit's pitching will carry them to the next round.
Prediction: Tigers in 4

Note: while I may have predicted both teams to lose, part of me would like to see the Yankees and Rays both advance to the ALCS.  I'd like nothing more than the Yankees to be eliminated from the postseason by the Rays, the team they handed a postseason spot to on the season's final day (blowing a 7 run lead, benching starters and refusing to use Mo in a 1 run 9th?  Come on!).  Remember a couple years ago when the Bengals rested their starters in Week 17 to allow the Jets to get into the playoffs, then they lost to that same Jets team a week later in the first round of the NFL playoffs?  New York will be on the opposite end of that this time.  Karma will come back to bite them and the Yankees will be wishing they had the chance to eliminate the Rays when the had the chance.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks
The Brew Crew went all in to win this year, knowing it's likely to be Prince Fielder's last year before he departs for a big free agent contract.  Their urgency led them to strip the farm system to trade for Zack Grienke and Shaun Marcum, to team with Yovani Gallardo to form a formidable trio.  The problem is that the team is so terrified of how the former Cy Young winner Grienke will react under the intense pressure of the postseason that they are pushing him back to Game 3.  Take the uncertainty in their rotation and add in one of the league's worst defenses and that's not a recipe for success in the postseason.

The Diamondbacks are the surprise team of the season, making a worst to first turn around to capture the NL West division.  Ian Kennedy and Dan Hudson give them a chance to win in each of their starts, as it's hard to give a significant edge to any of the Brewers pitchers over either of the youngsters.  Kennedy (21 wins, 2.88 ERA) may be the best pitcher in the series.  He'll help keep the Diamondbacks in the series.

The Brewers will need their offense to win this series.  Lucky for them, they have two of the leagues best sluggers in Prince Fielder and MVP candidate Ryan Braun.  They may be the league's most formidable duo, plus the supporting cast, including Corey Hart and energizer Nyjer Morgan, is plenty potent.  Justin Upton gives the D-Backs an MVP candidate of their own, but he needs more help.  The frustrating Chris Young is a 20/20 guy with solid run production, but hit only .236.  He's a streaky hitter that could help carry the team or derail it.
Prediction: Brewers in 5

Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals
If the postseason is all about pitching then it's hard to argue against the Phillies, who have the ability with their fearsome foursome to put an ace on the mound in every game this series.  The combined ERA of those four starters was 2.69 for the season.  That's better than the top starter for most teams!

On the other hand, we can't be too quick to discount a lineup that features Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman.  That's a tough trio to deal with for any pitching staff.  Pujols will be a free agent this off-season.  Coming off a disappointing season (by his high standards), he'll be looking to put on a show in October to make up for it and prove he's still the game's most feared hitter (just ask Brad Lidge, he still hasn't recovered from a Pujols postseason home run).

The Phillies lineup was once feared as much as their pitching, but the rapid declines of the overrated Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins has taken some of the shine off of them.  Shane Victorino has been the one carrying the offense, and mid-season pick up Hunter Pence has given them a much needed boost.  Their lineup is solid enough to support a dominant pitching staff.
Prediction: Phillies in 4

MLB Season Awards

The 2011 MLB regular season came to an exciting finish last night, as the Wild Card races in each league came down to game number 162.  With the regular season in the books it's time to look back and reflect on the accomplishments of the league's elite.  While the regular season awards won't officially be announced for a few weeks, now is our time to make our own predictions.

AL MVP
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (.321 AVG, .376 OBP, .552 SLG, 32 HR, 105 RBI, 39 SB, 16.8 UZR, 9.6 WAR)
2. Jose Bautista     (.302 AVG, .447 OBP, .608 SLG, 43 HR, 103 RBI, 9 SB, -10.2 UZR*, 8.4 WAR)
3. Justin Verlander (251.0 IP, 24 W, 2.40 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 8.96 K/9, 2.99 FIP, 7.0 WAR)

Ellsbury followed up a frustrating injury plagued season that deprived him of all but 18 uneventful games last year with a career season.  He ranked in the top 10 in the league in AVG, SLG, HR, RBI, and SB while leading the majors in WAR.  While he isn't quite the imposing slugger that Bautista is, it's important to note that these are two very different hitters.  While Bautista is supposed to put up big time power numbers hitting in the middle of the lineup, Ellsbury surprised many with his power surge from the lead off spot.  Bautista's OBP also benefited from pitchers having the luxury of pitching around him, while they couldn't afford to do that to Ellsbury, with elite hitters like Pedroia, Gonzalez and Ortiz hitting behind him.  The league leading HR, SLG and OPS numbers put up by Joey Bats are impressive nonetheless, and likely will earn him the Hank Aaron award, but he falls short in the MVP race.  I'm not a believer in the theory that a player from a losing team should be excluded from consideration for an individual award, so the Blue Jays record isn't held against him in my opinion.  However, Ellsbury's production while attempting to carry the Red Sox to a playoff spot does earn him some points.  The Sox came up just short, but that's by no fault of their lead off hitter, who was one of the game's best hitters down the stretch. 

I'll also point out that the MVP award doesn't just factor in hitting (otherwise Bautista likely would win).  Ellsbury is by far the superior base runner and defender.  Ellsbury played a more demanding position in centerfield and did so while rating as the second best defensive outfielder in the majors with a UZR of 16.8.  Bautista, on the other hand, spent the majority of his time playing below average defensively in right field.  He also spent some time at third base, where his advanced metrics don't rate him nearly as poorly (hence the asterik above), but it's a small sample size, and nobody that watched him play the position would mistake him for an elite defender at the hot corner.  Ellsbury's all around game, as well as his ability to light a spark at the top of the league's most lethal offense, push him a step above Bautista.

As for Verlander, there is likely to be a controversial debate over whether pitchers should even be considered for the award.  There are those that consider the Cy Young to be the pitching equivalent of the award and therefore refuse to vote for a pitcher.  That line of thinking is wrong, as the rules specifically state that pitchers should be considered.  However, it's difficult to compare the value of a pitcher in relation to a hitter due to the disparity in the number of games they impact.  While Ellsbury's contributions were spread over 158 games played, Verlander appeared in only 34.  While he was certainly dominant in those appearances, it would take a historically dominant performance to push a pitcher to the top of the list.  Verlander comes close, but as good as he was this season, he doesn't come close to the season Pedro Martinez had in '99 (when he was robbed by 2 voters that left him off the ballot) or Roger Clemens in '86 (the last starting pitcher to win the MVP award).  It's true that the Tigers wouldn't come close to a spot in the postseason without their ace, while the loaded Red Sox lineup would manage to get by without Ellsbury, but that underestimates the value Ellsbury adds to his team.  Ellsbury's league leading WAR measures him above Verlander, who is limited to the number of wins he can contribute due to lack of opportunities.  Not that it's his falut by any means, it's just another reason why hitters and pitchers are so difficult to compare.  The debate will rage on until the MVP award is more clearly defined, but while it's still open to interpretation and we have no clear way of comparing the value of hitters and pitchers, my vote goes to Ellsbury.

AL Cy Young
1. Justin Verlander (251.0 IP, 24 W, 2.40 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 8.96 K/9, 2.99 FIP, 7.0 WAR)
2. CC Sabathia      (237.1 IP, 19 W, 3.00 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.72 K/9, 2.88 FIP, 7.2 WAR)
3. Jered Weaver    (235.2 IP, 18 W, 2.41 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 7.56 K/9, 3.20 FIP, 5.6 WAR)

Not much of a debate here, as Verlander was the only pitcher that was even considered in the MVP discussion.  He should cruise through the Cy Young voting (although it will be interesting to see if a few NY writers try to make a case for Sabathia).  Verlander beats Sabathia in just about every category, except for a slight edge CC holds in FIP, which explains his slightly higher WAR.  Sabathia's case is strengthened by the fact that he plays in a much more extreme hitters park as well as a loaded AL East division, but it's not enough to push him passed Verlander.

Weaver had a strong case as the ERA leader for most of the season, but he struggled in a few starts down the stretch, which allowed Verlander to pass him for the lead, taking away Weaver's only real advantage.

NL MVP
1. Matt Kemp   (.324 AVG, .399 OBP, .586 SLG, 39 HR, 126 RBI, 40 SB, -4.3 UZR, 8.7 WAR)
2. Ryan Braun   (.332 AVG, .397 OBP, .597 SLG, 33 HR, 111 RBI, 33 SB, -4.8 UZR, 7.8 WAR)
3. Justin Upton  (.289 AVG, .369 OBP, .529 SLG, 31 HR, 88 RBI, 21 SB, 8.2 UZR, 6.5 WAR)

This is another tough debate, with Kemp and Braun having very similar numbers across the board.  Kemp just misses winning the NL Triple Crown, which likely would have made him a shoe in for the award despite his team's record.  He finished 3rd in AVG behind Braun and Jose Reyes, which opens the debate a bit more.  Kemp has a slight edge in most other categories.  True, Bruan's team will advance to the postseason, while Kemp's Dodgers struggled to stay above .500, but the case against Braun is that he might not even be the best hitter on his own team.  Prince Fielder put up superior offensive numbers to both players, but his poor base running and defensive skills drop him just outside of this MVP debate.  Kemp and Bruan are both below average defenders by most advanced metrics, but over the course of their careers Kemp has proven to be the better defender, so he gets the benefit of the doubt.  At times he can appear distracted (honestly, who wouldn't be with the mess going on with that team) which can lead to occasional miscues that drag down his defensive metrics, but he still rates better than Braun, who the Brewers stuck in left field to hide his defensive short comings after he failed miserably as a third baseman.  It essentially comes down to a coin flip between the two sluggers, but I'm leaning towards Kemp.  If he doesn't win the award, we can just add that to the list of things we can blame Frank McCourt for.

As for Upton, he deserves some mention for carrying a young Diamondbacks team to a surprising NL West division title.  His offensive numbers fall short of the two studs above him in this race, but his improved defense gives him an edge in at least one category.

NL Cy Young
1. Clayton Kershaw   (233.1 IP, 21 W, 2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 9.57 K/9, 2.47 FIP, 6.8 WAR)
2. Roy Halladay         (233.2 IP, 19 W, 2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 8.47 K/9, 2.20 FIP, 8.2 WAR)
3. Cliff Lee                 (232.2 IP, 17 W, 2.40, 1.03 WHIP, 9.21 K/9, 2.60 FIP, 6.8 WAR)

In the National League the Cy Young race is much more open for debate, as there is no Justin Verlander type season to run away with the award.  You can pretty much pick any Phillies pitcher and toss them in the mix, along with the Dodger's Clayton Kershaw.  Kid K blows away the rest of the group in strikeouts, which helps limit the number of base runners and gives him the lowest WHIP on the list.  The less balls that go into play, the less chance of a ball falling in for a hit.  It will be tough for voters to keep the award away from a pitcher that wins the pitching equivalent of the Triple Crown (leading in W, ERA and K's), despite that some of the advanced metrics seem to favor Halladay.  This is due in part to Kershaw playing in a pitchers park while Halladay and Lee both call one of the league's better hitting parks home.  I'm tempted to go with Halladay because of the advanced stats, and still feel like he's the game's best pitcher, but I'll go with Kershaw.  Voters will likely be swayed by the rare Triple Crown accomplishment, and Halladay may split some votes with Lee amongst Phillies supporters.  Plus, how great would it be if the MVP and Cy Young winners both came from a team that won only 82 games?

AL Rookie of the Year
1. Jeremy Hellickson
2. Mark Trumbo
3. Eric Hosmer

Desmond Jennings would have had a chance to steal the award with his impressive second half campaign, but he didn't play enough games to qualify for my vote.  Instead, I'm picking his teammate, Jeremy Hellickson.  Despite the rookie label, the Rays starter was arguably one of the AL's 10 best starters.  Sure, his 2.95 ERA and .210 opponent's batting average against may have been helped by his home park and outstanding defensive play behind him, but that doesn't take away how important he has been as a reliable part of the Rays playoff bound rotation.

NL Rookie of the Year
1. Craig Kimbrall
2. Freedie Freeman
3. Danny Espinosa

Reliever's often don't get a lot of credit in these award races because of the minimal innings they pitch, but it's hard to overlook a rookie that tied for the league lead in saves while boasting a 2.10 ERA and ridiculous 14.84 K/9.  He ran out of gas down the stretch, but that can be blamed on a manager that overworked his top bullpen guys all season long.  Kimbrall's 77 innings was more than any other closer in the majors.  He should be considered as the top player at his position in the NL, which is something none of these other rookies can come close to saying.

AL Manager of the Year
1. Joe Madden
2. Jim Layland
3. Ron Washington

Hard to pick anyone ahead of Madden after his team just made one of the all time great comebacks to earn a playoff spot.  Granted, that had a lot more to do with the Red Sox collapse than anything Tampa did, but the Rays do deserve credit for getting the job done when the opportunity was handed to them.  In a season after he lost stars like Crawford, Soriano and Garza, he still managed to plug in new pieces and hardly miss a beat.  Plus, with stories about his infamous theme days where he gets players to dress up on road trips (my favorite was the pajamas), who wouldn't want to play for him?

NL Manager of the Year
1. Kirk Gibson
2. Charlie Manual
3. Ron Roenicke

Who would have ever thought the Diamondbacks would come away with the NL West division title?  The same team that lost 97 games last year.  Sure, the injury to Buster Posey helped derail the season for the defending champion Giants, the Dodgers were sunk by the mess of their owner's divorce, and the Rockies mysteriously digressed, but give credit to a young Diamondback's team for taking advantage of the opening.  In turn, their manager deserves credit for rallying the troops and pushing them to what some may consider a season of over achievement.  Or perhaps it's young players like Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy finally making the jump to elite status and carrying the club.  Still, we'll give some credit to the manager too.

Things I noticed: Week 3

The first couple weeks of the NFL season have shown us a record setting pace for passing yardage across the league.  Would the trend continue, or are defenses finally catching up?

Here are some things that I noticed this week.

• The Bills legitimized their fast start to the season with a shocking upset against the Patriots, their first against New England in their last 16 meetings.  Buffalo erased a 21 point deficit, sealing the victory with a FG as time expired.
• The Bills were aided by a bogus unnecessary roughness call against New England in the game's final minute.   Ryan Fitzpatrick fumbled the snap, leading to a pile up where the Patriots believed they had come away with the ball.  None of the Bills players seemed all that confident that they hadn't lost the ball.  Luckily for them, the refs seemed to ignore the fact a fumble ever occurred, instead throwing a flag for contact after they assumed the play was over.  With the ball loose the Patriots players should have been allowed to jump into the pile for it.  To top off the botched call, the refs reported the penalty on a player (Logan Mankins) that wasn't even on the field!  The penalty gave the Bills a first down, which allowed them to run the clock all the way down before they kicked the game winning FG.
• Tom Brady, who threw 4 INTs all of last season, threw 4 of them in this game, one of which was returned for a TD.  Despite another big yardage day, Tom was far from terrific today, so maybe he won't run away with the MVP race after all.
• In his defense, two of those INTs were on tipped passes, and another can be blamed on the poor route taken by Ochocinco.  So his poor play wasn't entirely his fault.
• Wes Welker caught 16 passes for a career high 217 yards and two TDs.  So at least someone played well for the Patriots this week.  Entering the game, Welker had never topped 100 yards or scored a TD against Buffalo in his career.
• It looked like a battle between FG kickers in Cincinnati until Kendall Hunter finally scored the game's first TD with about 4 minutes left in the game.  
• Aside from the TD, Hunter didn't impress much with his 2.9 yards per carry, but it was better than Gore's 2.5 average.  As poorly as Gore has played, it might not take much for him to start losing carries to Hunter.  Gore also injured his ankle in the game, which could factor in depending on the severity of the injury.
• Andy Dalton had gotten off to a good start in his rookie season, but he failed to come through in what looked to be a winnable game.  157 yards and 2 INTs isn't going to get it done, even against the 49ers.
• Colt McCoy connected with Mohamed Massaquoi for the game winning TD with under a minute remaining.  Miami once again finds a way to give games away.
• Cleveland won despite playing without Madden 12 cover boy, Peyton Hillis.  Which means this week they were exempt from the Madden Curse.
• The Titans rallied to beat Denver, but it came at the price of losing Kenny Britt to an ugly knee injury (torn ACL, MCL) that caused him to carted off the field.  Looks like a season ending injury for the promising young star.
• As for the most overpaid running back in the league?  Chris Johnson rushed 13 times for a miserable 21 yards.  At least he added 54 receiving yards, including a key 34 yard catch on 3rd down that helped set up their first TD.
• The Lions are off to a 3-0 start for the first time in over 30 years after beating the Vikings with a FG in overtime.  
• Matthew Stafford (378 yards) continued his great rapport with Calvin Johnson (108 yards), connecting with him for both of his TD passes.
• For the 3rd straight week, the Vikings gave up a lead in the second half.  Adrian Peterson, who dominated in the first half (73 yards and a TD), hardly touched the ball in the second half.
• How much longer until McNabb loses his job as the starting QB?  If rookie Christian Ponder is showing any sign of talent in practice then it may be sooner rather than later.
• Drew Brees erupted in the 4th quarter, leading 3 TD drives, including one that ended with a 13 yard TD run by Mark Ingram to put the Saints ahead for good in this good old fashioned shoot out with the Texans.
• With Arian Foster out again with a nagging hamstring injury, Ben Tate had a chance to become only the 2nd RB in history to rush for over 100 yards in each of his first three career starts.  He came up short, with only 82 yards, but has shown enough already to give the Texans confidence that their ground attack will be just fine even without the league's reigning rushing leader.
• For the second straight week, Michael Vick left the game early with an injury.  It was questionable whether he should have been out there to begin with after suffering a concussion last week, but it was a broken right hand that forced him out this time.  The lefty says he'll try to be back on the field next week, but it will be a week long question mark hanging over the Eagles once again.
• The Giants took advantage of Vick's absence to get a big win in Philadelphia.  Given the injuries that depleted the Giants secondary early in the season, who would have thought they'd lead the Eagles in the standings at any point this year?  Thanks to the injury to Vick, that's the case for now.
• In a related note, football is a dangerous game.  
• With injuries limiting the depth of the Giants receiving corps, Victor Cruz stepped up to be the hero with a game high 110 yards and 2 TDs.  His first was a 74 yard catch and run that demonstrated some of the worst tackling you'll ever see from the Eagles defense.  Apparently Asomugha is thrown at so infrequently that he's forgotten how to tackle.
• Cam Newton's run of 400+ passing yard games came to an end, but he did get his first career victory.  I'm pretty sure he'll take that trade off.
• Maurice Jones-Drew (167 total yards) is the lone bright spot on the Jacksonville offense. Without him it would be a wonder if they ever managed to move the ball.
• The Tampa Bay Bucs withstood a Falcon's rally to hold on for a big win at home.  Josh Freeman had a very underwhelming day, but he made some key plays with his legs to run for first downs and even ran one in for a score.
• Atlanta got behind early, which pretty much took Michael Turner out of the game early considering he's next to useless in passing situations.  Matt Ryan did his best to help make up for it, with Roddy White and Julio Jones both going over the 100 yard mark, while the reliable veteran Tony Gonzalez added a TD catch.
• Well, the Chiefs didn't get blown out this week, so that's an improvement.  After losing their first two games by a combined 79 points, Kansas City showed some signs off life by scoring 17 second half points to close the gap with the Chargers.  Sure, they still lost, but it's a start.
• The Chiefs are terrified of giving too many touches to 170 pound Dexter McCluster, but when the alternative is handing off to the ancient Thomas Jones, I think it may be beneficial to feed him the ball a bit more.  With Jamaal Charles out for the season, McCluster is their most explosive weapon.
• Speaking of running back duos, I thought the Chargers were supposed to have a split in their backfield, but it was Ryan Mathews (21 carries, 98 yards) carrying the load in favor of Mike Tolbert (4 carries, 19 yards).  If Mathews can stay healthy and keep up that kind of production then he'll have a chance to keep the bigger role in this time share.
• The Raiders battered Mark Sanchez, sacking him 4 times (and they all looked painful), in their upset win over the Jets.  
• So wait, if the Jets lost... and the Pats lost... so are you telling me that the Buffalo Bills are in first place in the AFC East??  That removes a bit of the luster from the whole New York/New England rivalry.  I'm going to need some time to let this sink in.
• Oakland appears to be one of the few teams left in the league capable of still running the ball in this pass wacky era we live in.  If you're going to move the ball against the Jets, with their tandem of Revis and Cromartie shutting down every receiver that comes their way, you have to be able to effectively run the ball.  Darren McFadden got the memo, rushing for 171 yards and a couple of TDs.
• It was like a bad case of deja vu for the Rams, as every time they looked they were getting burned by Torrey Smith for a TD.  He caught three of them in the first quarter on his way to a 152 yard receiving day as the Ravens blew out the Rams.
• That was nice of the Ravens to let the Rams get on the scoreboard in the second half so they could go home feeling good about themselves.  Or as good as they could feel after getting crushed by 30 points.
• Actually the one score the Rams did get was a beauty.  Sam Bradford, on the run, unleashed a rocket that found Brandon Gibson, who did an impressive job of his own to come down with his feet in the endzone.
• Ray Rice had a decent day when you combine his yardage through the ground and air (162 total yards), but his fantasy owners (including yours truly) can't be happy that Joe Flacco had more rushing attempts (9) than Rice did (8) in a game the Ravens led the entire way.
• The Seahawks took the lead after a gutsy headfirst dive into the endzone by Tavaris Jackson.  If Michael Vick made the same play we'd be questioning his decision making for taking such a risk, but when Jackson does it... great play!  Probably because had he gotten injured on the play, would the Seahawks really be losing much?
• Remember before the season when some people questioned whether Kevin Kolb could be a legit starting QB?  Losing to Seattle while throwing more INTs than TDs makes those people smile.
• JerMichael Finely was a beast, hauling in 3 TD catches in the Packers win in Chicago.  You could argue Finely is their most dangerous receiving option and this team just won a Super Bowl without him!  
• Just when it looked like James Starks had stolen away the role of lead running back in the Packers offense, he hands it back to Ryan Grant on a silver platter.  His 11 carries for a miserable 5 yards was a far cry from Grant's 17 carry, 92 yard performance.  Grant, who missed almost all of last season with a knee injury, is only a year removed from back-to-back 1,200 yard rushing seasons.  Don't forget about him.
• Poor Jay Cutler.  When he had the chance to try to lead a comeback for the Bears, the refs missed a blatant pass interference call that otherwise could have led to a long TD reception.  Then Johnny Knox drops a perfectly thrown pass for what would have been another big gain.  Sure, he still struggled and threw a couple more INTs in the game, but it should have been a lot better than it looked.
• What's up with these Sunday Night games being so exciting?  For the third straight week the SNF game came down to the wire.  The Manning-less Colts didn't appear to have a chance against the defending AFC Champion, but they put a scare into the Steelers, who finally put the Colts away with a FG in the last few seconds of the game.
• The Steelers appeared to be on their way to dominating the game early until they temporarily fell apart near the end of the half.  Their two minute drill was a disaster, as a Ben Roethlisberger fumble was returned for a TD.  He then threw an INT that set up a Colts FG just before halftime.  10 points in about 90 seconds and suddenly the Colts were back in the game.
• Kerry Collins was knocked out of the game with a concussion.  Curtis Painter took his place and after some early struggles, managed to put together a few drives that gave his team a chance to win.  It will go down as another loss, but it's the best this team has looked all year.
• Playing with broken ribs, Tony Romo didn't have much to work with on Monday night, but somehow managed to pull off a win against their rival Redskins.  The win was the first home opening victory for Dallas since they moved into their new mega stadium three years ago.
• Miles Austin missed the game with injury and Dez Bryant was limited due to an injury of his own.  That left the Cowboys with a group of inexperienced receivers, and it showed.  Romo repeatedly showed his frustration as receivers messed up their routes.  On top of that, his center snapped the ball early at least 4 times, leading to broken plays and stalled drives.  
• Felix Jones had a big game (115 yards) that included several big plays, including a run for 40 yards and another for 29.  Before that, Dallas hadn't had a running play for over 10 yards all season.
• The winning drive for Dallas came after Romo converted an unlikely 3rd and 21 by connecting with Dez Bryant.  For reasons known only to them, Washington sent an 8 man blitz on the play, leaving Bryant single covered for a 30 yard gain (which was made worse by a facemask penalty that tacked on another 15 yards).  Had the Redskins not blitzed and instead held more defenders back in coverage they likely would have prevented Dallas from converting.  Their poor play calling put the Cowboys in range for the game winning FG.
• Since 1990, when the current playoff format was adopted, 76% of teams that started the season 3-0 have gone on to make the playoffs.  The teams that got there this week - Green Bay, Detroit, and Buffalo.  Raise your hand if you picked all three of those teams to be the last remaining undefeated teams at this point in the season.  Ok, but your hands down, liars.
• Buffalo and Detroit are tied for the longest postseason draughts, with neither team making the playoffs since 1999.  So if they both make it, does that mean we get to party like it's 1999?

Slumping Sox

The Boston Red Sox aren't just limping to the finish line, they are hobbling on one leg.  Their season is spiraling down the drain like a flushed toilet washing away an ugly mess.  I could continue on with more analogies, but I think you get the point.  Things are going bad, historically bad, for the Red Sox this month.

The Red Sox were the pre-season favorites, a team on paper capable of winning 100 games and cruising to the top spot in the American League.  Now it looks like they may struggle just to win 90 games a back their way into a playoff spot.  They recovered from a troubling 2-10 start to dominate for the majority of the season until crumbling in the home stretch.  On September 3rd, Boston led Tampa Bay in the Wild Card race by a seemingly insurmountable 9 games.  No team in history has ever overcome that large a deficit this late in the season.  Thanks to a 5-16 record in the month of September, that lead is now down to 2.5 games.  It could have been an even narrower lead if not for a little help from an unlikely ally, those division leading Yankees.  Yet Boston's lead in the race remains close - too close.  Close enough to also allow the Angels to jump back into the race, as their winning streak has pulled them even with Tampa.

So where did it all go wrong?  It may sound like a cop out, but some of it has actually just been bad luck.  A blown call here, a broken bat hit there or an ill timed error have all contributed to the late season swoon.  More than anything though, it's been the pitching.  Red Sox starters have a horrendous 6.77 ERA this month.  That's unfathomable for a team boasting two aces, in Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, but the starters behind them in the rotation have been awful.  John Lackey is having one of the worst seasons ever for a Red Sox starter.  Tim Wakefield is finally starting to look like, well, a 45 year old pitcher.  The long term injury to Clay Buccholz has deprived the team of a dependable 3rd starter in the second half of the season.  Erik Bedard, who was brought in at the trade deadline to fill that void, has missed more starts than he's made due to a variety of injuries of his own.  When a team is forced to fill in a far from ready Kyle Wieland during the late stages of a pennant race, you know your rotation is in trouble.

The bullpen has been just as troubling.  Dan Wheeler and Bobby Jenks were supposed to add solid depth to the back end of the bullpen, but both have been injured and ineffective for most of the season.  That's left the bullpen woefully thin, which has finally started to catch up to them.  Matt Albers had been a savior for the bullpen earlier in the year, but he's collapsed in the second half to the point that he can no longer be trusted in key situations.  Alfredo Aceves has been a vital cog in the pitching staff, capable of providing the occasional spot start while also coming out of the bullpen, but he's pitched well over 100 innings already, far more than the typical limit of a relief pitcher.  Even the normally lights out Daniel Bard has been hit hard this month, with an ERA of 9.90 over the past month.  Their lack of depth has forced the bullpen to be overworked, which has inevitably led to their late season struggles.

For the most part, the offense has kept on rolling.  They still boast three MVP candidates (although their late season collapse will surely weaken their chances).  Yet all is not completely well on that end either.  Kevin Youkilis has missed most of the month with an injury, and there's no telling when he'll be healthy enough to contribute.  Adrian Gonzalez and David Ortiz have both struggled with injuries that likely would have kept them out of the lineup longer if not for the pressing need to keep them in it.

Essentially everything that could go wrong at this point in the season has gone wrong for the Red Sox.  Overcome with injuries and exhaustion, the team has just fallen apart.  The players remain confident, or at least claim to be, but you can see their frustration as doubt begins to creep in.  It certainly has for those around them.  Even former Sox pitcher Curt Schilling, the man who once wore a bloody sock to the mound and became an icon symbolic of improbable comebacks, has lost hope, predicting the Sox will fall out of the playoff race.  It's hard to blame him for his pessimism given what we've seen lately.

Boston has 6 games left in the regular season, with road series in New York and Baltimore.  Meanwhile, Tampa has a slightly more difficult schedule, playing New York and Toronto.  With a lead of at least two games entering the weekend series in New York, it should be enough of a lead to hold off the Rays.  If they can split their remaining games then Tampa would need to win 5 of their last 6 games just to tie and force a 1 game playoff against the Sox.  Then again, given how poorly the Sox have played lately, winning 3 of their remaining 6 games may be asking for too much.  You'd think it should be easy enough to win at least 2 games in Baltimore, one of the worst teams in the league, except the O's just took 3 out of 4 games in Fenway Park.  Even if they get the benefit of missing CC Sabathia in the New York series, they'll be lucky to leave without getting swept, which means they'll be in desperation mode when they arrive in Baltimore.  If they can't take care of business against a bad team when the pressure is on, they don't deserve to advance to the postseason.

There may still be hope that the Sox can manage to hang on.  Perhaps there is even hope that once the calendar flips to October they will turn things around again, similar to how they did after their miserable start to the season.  Perhaps their stars will shine bright on the big postseason stage and lead the Sox to another World Series.  They playoffs may not be as big of a disaster as this past month has been.

They just have to get there first.

Things I Noticed: Week 2

It was a rough week for a lot of fantasy football owners, as several players drafted in the first round of most leagues were knocked out of the game early, including Michael Vick, Arian Foster and Jamaal Charles.  With stars like that going down already, maybe it's a good thing that we didn't move to an 18 game schedule.

Here are some other things I noticed this week:

• Tom Brady didn't have another historic yardage day, but he may have played an even better game this week.  He put up 423 yards against a team that led the league in total defense last season and just last week limited Donovan McNabb to a meager 39 passing yards.  TB12 is well on his way to another MVP season.
• The Patriots defense once again gave up a ton of yardage, but managed to capitalize on turnovers to hold off the Chargers.  Philip Rivers thew for a lot of yardage while attempting to play catch up all afternoon, but also threw two interceptions and lost a fumble.
• The opportunistic Patriots defense helped the team to victory this week, but turnovers aren't something that can be counted on every week.  The Pats will need to tighten up their defense and force more punts to avoid every game turning into a shoot out.
• The scheme for the Pats defense was to take away Antonio Gates, which worked to perfection.  Gates was held without a catch, while only being targeted once.  The extra attention on the star TE meant less help on Vincent Jackson, who had a big game (172 yards, 2 TDs) to make up for the lack of production from Gates.
• The Pats Tight End attack continues to impress, as Hernandez and Gronkowski combined for 148 yards and 2 TDs.  Aarob Gronkandez may be the best TE in football.
• The shoot out between Oakland and Buffalo saw a wild finish with the teams combining for a total of 5 TDs in the 4th quarter.  The Bills scored with 14 seconds remaining to win it.
• The way things were going, I was a little surprised that Jason Campbell's hail mary throw to end the game wasn't successful.  Instead it was intercepted, but at least someone caught it!
• That's another impressive performance for Ryan Fitzpatrick.  If he keeps this up we might have to actually consider him a viable starting QB.  Let's see him do it against a good defense first. 
• The season couldn't be going any worse for the Chiefs, and it's not just because they lost another blow out this week.  The bigger loss for them is that Jamaal Charles blew out his ACL.  A week after losing their best defensive player (Eric Berry), the Chiefs have lost their best offensive player.  They also lost TE Tony Moeaki in the pre-season to the same injury.  Seriously, what do ACLs have against the Chiefs?
• Everyone's favorite sleeper team came up big again this week and are now 2-0 for the first time in... forever?  Certainly seems that way.  Matthew Stafford had another big day, throwing a pair of TDs to Calvin Johnson, while finding the endzone a couple more times for good measure.  They sent the hobbled Chiefs packing before Stafford could tear his own ACL.  With the way Chiefs players keep falling to the injury, it may be contagious, so it was imperative to get them out of Detroit before the injury prone Stafford suffered the same fate.  Close call, Lion's fans.
• The 48-3 shellacking was the largest margin of victory in Lion's history.
• After the Ravens looked dominant against the Steelers last week, they disappointed this week by falling to a Titans team that had looked awful in their previous game.  See how quickly things can turn around in the NFL? 
• A big part of the Ravens letdown was that they lost the turnover battle (3-1), after having a +7 turnover margin against the Steelers. 
• Chris Johnson got to see a lot more action this week (24 carries) but did little with it to impress anyone (53 yards).  Don't worry, he'll live up to that contract someday, he's just easing his way in.
• The Browns have never beaten Peyton Manning's Colts before, and well... they still haven't, because Manning isn't playing.  The Browns did get a win over the Colts though, so that's a start.
• We knew Kerry Collins wasn't the answer, so the offense was sure to suffer, but why has the defense been such a disappointment?  The Manning injury seems to be deflating the entire team.  Or they are tanking to get into the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, just in case Manning never recovers.  Is week 2 too early to tank?
• Those of you that were worried about LaGarett Blount can relax.  He still isn't getting a heavy workload (the Bucs played from behind most of the game), but he averaged 5.5 yards on the carries he did get and found the endzone twice, including the game winner with 31 seconds left in the game.
• Adrian Peterson did the heavy lifting for the Vikings, scoring two first quarter TDs.  Not a whole lot to like about this offense besides AP.
• The Saints bounced back from their tough loss to the Packers last week to put up a convincing victory against the Bears.  Drew Brees led the way with 3 TDs and doesn't appear to have missed a beat, despite losing his top receiver, Marques Colston, last week.
• You had to root for Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher this week, after he spent the past week dealing with the sudden loss of his mother.  Not many people would have the strength to pull themselves together in time to play just days later.
• The Blaine Gabbert era can officially begin in Jacksonville, after Luke McCown was pulled during a lopsided loss to the Jets.  No word yet on if the switch is permanent, but it will be tough to hand the job back to a guy coming off a 4 interception performance.  He has a 1.8 QB rating!  How is that even possible?
• Mark Sanchez didn't exactly light it up in this game either.  He made some good throws, but several bad ones as well.  The Jets took advantage of the good field position afforded to them by the numerous Jaguar turnovers to coast to victory.
• Nothing like an NFC West opponent to help get over a tough loss.  The Steelers took advantage by shutting out the Seahawks.
• Ben Roethlisberger took a hit to the leg that sent him limping to the locker room for an early halftime break.  He later returned and appeared to be ok.
• The Redskins kicked a late field goal to beat the Cardinals and improve to 2-0.  That's right, a team led by Red Grossman is undefeated.  It's still early, but the Redskins are already surpassing the expectations of most people. 
• The Cards looked like they had put the game away in the 4th quarter when Larry Fitzgerald burned the defense for a 73 yard TD, but their defense couldn't hold the lead.  Fitzgerald got his wish when he asked for a competent QB.  Too bad they had to give up their only good defensive back in order to get him.
• Cam Newton continues to impress in his rookie season.  After setting a rookie record for passing yards in a game last week, he followed it up with another 400+ yard performance.  You could overlook last week's break out as an aberration of racking up stats against a bad defense, but this time it came against the defending Super Bowl champion Packers.  He still hasn't managed a win, but he played well and managed to put a scare into the champs by taking an early lead and staying close throughout the game.
• Part of what cost the Panthers a chance at an upset was their inability to stop big plays.  Rodgers threw TD passes to Greg Jennings (49 yards) and Jordy Nelson (84 yards).
• Tony Romo is doing his best to change the opinion that he can't thrive in clutch situations.  He impressed his doubters this week by playing through injured ribs to lead a comeback victory.  His 77 yard throw set up the game winning FG in overtime.
• In fact, when Romo was temporarily forced out of the game with the rib injury, it was Jon Kitna's poor performance (2 Interceptions) that was partially to blame for the game getting to be as close as it was.  Maybe the Cowboys aren't better off without Romo after all.
• It was a much needed win for the Cowboys, but it turned out to be a Pyrrhic victory.  In addition to the broken ribs for Romo, Dez Bryant missed the game with a quad injury, Miles Austin tweaked a hamstring and Felix Jones injured his shoulder.  That's a lot of star power missing from an offense that has already been struggling with inconsistency.  They can't afford for all of them to be out.
• Should the 49ers start to worry about Frank Gore?  I thought it was a mistake to give a big contract to a 28 year old RB coming off a season ending injury, but didn't think the decline would be so sudden.  Through 2 weeks, he has 42 carries for 106 yards (2.5 per carry).  Hopefully it's just a slow start in a small sample size because without him playing like his usual self, this offense is in trouble.
• Kyle Orton led the Broncos to their first win of the season, but it won't stop Denver fans from clamouring for Tim Tebow.  The biggest cheers from the fans seemed to be when Tebow came on the field, and it wasn't even an appearance as the QB.  He never even touched the ball.  Poor Orton can't wait for the team's next away game.
• Rookies Andy Dalton and A.J. Green are quickly developing a good rapport together.  Green caught 10 passes for 134 yards and a TD, making the game look as easy as it was for them back in their college days.  Probably because the team they were facing has the talent equivalent to most college teams. A Bronco's defense, without Champ Bailey or Elvis Dumervil, isn't pretty.
• Arian Foster returned for the Texans... then left after aggravating his hamstring again.  He didn't do a lot to impress in his cameo appearance anyway, and Ben Tate certainly looks capable of carrying the load, as he went over the 100 yard mark again.  Even if Foster is healthy enough to play next week, expect Tate to stay involved.
• Chad Henne came crashing down to earth (12-30 for 170 yards).  Apparently he can only put up big numbers in games where the opposing QB is having a historic day.  In a typical game, he goes back to being terrible.
• Miami falls to 0-2, with both games coming at home.  They were 1-7 at home last season.  So much for home sweet home.
• For everyone that picked Michael Vick in the first round of their fantasy football drafts, get ready to hear a lot of I told you so's regarding the health risks tied to Vick.  A hard hit knocked him out with a concussion, but the good news is that the blood he was spitting up was the result from biting his tongue, not a sign of internal bleeding, which was originally feared. 
• With Vick out of the game, the Eagles struggled to move the ball and were unable to put up any points in the 4th quarter, which led to a Falcons comeback.  It's not that Mike Kafka played poorly, he actually filled in admirably.  He's just not like the other Mike.  The Eagles are a much easier team to defend when the defense doesn't have to account for a QB scrambling for a huge gain.
• Jeremy Maclin had a huge game (171 yards, 2 TDs), but dropped a seemingly routine pass on the biggest play of the game - a 4th and 4 deep in Atlanta territory.  The Eagles turned the ball over on downs, allowing the Falcons to run out almost all of the remaining time.
• Speaking of which, do the Falcons like living dangerously, or did they just not see what DeSean Jackson did to the Giants last year?  Why would they even consider kicking to him?  It didn't end up costing them this time, but the odds of Jackson taking the kick back for a game winning score are a lot better than the odds of a desperation hail mary toss from mid-field.  Just kick it out of bounds!
• It's not often that you see a QB throw 4 TDs in a game, yet fail to pass for more than 200 yards, but Matt Ryan did it.  Typical win for Matty Ice, leading the team to victory without putting up huge numbers.  It's why he'll always be a better real life QB than fantasy football QB.
• I thought Tony Gonzalez was supposed to be washed up by now.  He led the team in receptions, yards, and caught 2 TDs.  Maybe the veteran TE has something left in the tank after all.  Also, the Eagles really need to do a better job of covering TE's.  All those highly paid corners help shut down the opponent's receivers, but they don't have a good match up for a big target like Gonzalez.
• The Giants capitalized on some key turnovers and penalties to get themselves back on track against the quickly sinking Rams.  A Sam Bradford fumble that was returned for a TD was the turning point, which the Rams never recovered from. 
• The Rams had no trouble moving the ball against an injury depleted Giants defense, at least until they got into the red zone.  They had several drives stall once they got close to the endzone, resulting in several short field goals.  Meanwhile, the Giants didn't move the ball quite as successfully, but mistakes made by the Rams granted them opportunities that they were able to take advantage of.  Once they got into the red zone they came away with TDs instead of FGs, which proved to be the difference maker.
• Domenik Hixon had the catch of the night in the endzone.  The ball bounced off his chest, but he showed tremendous concentration to stick his hand out and tap the ball back into the air several times to keep it from hitting the ground, before finally bringing it in for the successful catch.
• The Washington Redskins, widely predicted to finish last in the NFC East, currently lead the division at 2-0.  Who would have guessed that?
• Only 4 teams in the AFC have started the season 2-0.  Three of those teams are in the AFC East (Pats, Jets, Bills).
• The 2-0 Lions have been world beaters so far, leading all teams in point differential (+52).

Is John Lackey the worst Red Sox pitcher ever?

John Lackey is the worst pitcher ever!

That's the kind of statement your likely to hear these days in Red Sox Nation as a panicking fan base agonizes over rotation woes highlighted by the train wreck of a season in progress by John Lackey.  While the hostility has been somewhat warranted, it's a stretch to say that he's actually the worst pitcher in baseball history.  However, it may not be quite as far fetched to consider that Lackey is having the worst season of any Red Sox pitcher ever.

Part of the negativity being spewed at Lackey this season comes from the disappointment of failed expectations that come along with the pricey 5 year, $82.5 million contract he signed two years ago.  He's essentially the J.D. Drew of pitchers, a solid player throughout his career, but hardly a star caliber player that will never live up to that large of a contract.

Perception doesn't always match reality, and Lackey's contract certainly works against him in the eyes of fans.  Yet the truth is in the numbers, so how does Lackey rate statistically in relation to other forgettable bottom feeders in Red Sox history?

First, let's take a look at just how bad Lackey has been this season.  His current 6.19 ERA ranks as the worst amongst all starting pitchers that have thrown over 100 innings so far this season.  His FIP, which calculates a pitcher's ERA independent of fielding (essentially using strikeouts and home runs to eliminate balls in play out of the pitcher's control) stands at 4.81.  Still unreasonably high considering what is expected of him, but it still suggests his bloated ERA may be partially inflated by elements out of his control.  His BABIP of .333 is well above league average and easily a career high for him, suggesting he's been the victim of some bad luck along the way.  His rapidly declining K/9 rate (career low 6.07 K's per 9 innings) is partially to blame, but it's fair to say that he hasn't really been this bad.

Yet make no mistake, he's clearly been bad.  It's just a question of if it's been historically bad or not.  Let's compare Lackey's season to some of the other worst pitching seasons for Red Sox pitchers.  Only starting pitchers that topped at least 100 innings for the season qualify.

                                 ERA  WHIP  K/9   BB/9  HR/9  FIP    BABIP     
John Lackey (2011)    6.19  1.59    6.07    3.07  1.20   4.81  .333      
Lefty Grove (1934)     6.50  1.66   3.54    2.63  0.41   3.83   .339
Mike Smithson (1988) 5.97  1.47   5.19    2.63  1.78   5.20   .295
Del Lundgren (1927)   6.27  1.81   2.57    5.74   0.46   5.12  .304
Jack Lamabe (1964)   5.89  1.65   5.53    2.89   1.27   4.21  .340

Grove's 1934 season was clearly an aberration, shortened by injury which likely played a part in his poor season.  He'd go on to have a Hall of Fame career, so I think it's safe to say he's not in John Lackey territory, but that one season was at least comparable to Lackey's season.  Lundgren is easily the least talented pitcher on the list, as this was only his first full season in the rotation and he was out of the league the following year.  Smithson's numbers are inflated by a spike in home runs allowed, coming around a time when power numbers were starting to rise (perhaps a bit premature for what's known as the "steroid era," but that doesn't mean players hadn't already started using PEDs around that time).  Lamabe's season is the closest replica of the season Lackey is currently having, but he seems to have been even more unlucky than Lackey has been.  It's difficult to fairly compare these pitchers given the different eras they played in, but it's clear that Lackey's putrid season fits in with the rest of the group. 

It's also important to note that Lackey's season hasn't been a complete disaster.  He's logged nearly 150 innings, which is the 3rd most innings on the Red Sox pitching staff this season.  Granted they haven't been quality innings, but even in games where he's given up a lot of runs, he's capable of settling down and grinding out a few extra innings to prevent the bullpen from getting too overworked, while still keeping his team in the game.  With an explosive offense like the one this Red Sox team boasts, they are rarely out of a game even after a poor effort from their starting pitcher.  It may be ugly, but Lackey still sticks around long enough to give his team a chance to win, which is why he doesn't have a losing record.  His last outing, at home against the Blue Jays, is a good example.  Lackey gave up two early runs, but fought back to make it through 5.1 innings.  He didn't make it quite far enough to get credit for a quality start, but he left with a lead, which his bullpen would later blow. 

It's clear that Lackey's skills are in sharp decline, a tough pill to swallow given his bloated contract (which, I shudder to think, lasts another 3 years).  In his prime, Lackey dominated hitters with his fastball, but a loss in velocity has made that fastball far more hittable.  There has been speculation that part of his issues have been mental, as he struggled to adjust to the media market in Boston and suffered through some personal issues off the field since joining the Red Sox.  Injury issues may also have led to some of his issues.  Still, he's clearly on the downside of his career and rapidly declining. 

Lackey has shown glimpses of his former self this season, but has been unable to sustain it.  Can he get it back, at least temporarily, to give the Red Sox rotation a boost down the stretch and (hopefully) into the playoffs?  They better hope so, because as it stands now, they likely would be forced to rely on him as their third starter in a playoff series.  That's a scary thought, to give such an important role to a pitcher that just may be having the worst season in franchise history.

Things I Noticed: Week 1

The long awaited NFL regular season has finally arrived!  No more lock out drama, no more training camps or meaningless pre-season games.  It's go time.

Here are some things that I noticed this week.

• The season kicked off on Thursday night in a battle of the last two Super Bowl champs, as the Packers hosted the Saints.  The celebration of a new season included an extended pre-game show with musical performances by Kid Rock, Lady Antebellum and Maroon 5. 
• I liked the Maroon 5 performance, as I must admit to being hooked on that catchy "Moves like Jagger" song.  Although I was a little thrown off hearing Adam Levine sing Christina Aguilera's part.  I've never seen them perform the song live before, but I imagine since she doesn't tour with the band that he usually does that, but that was my first time hearing it that way.  Is it just me, or was he actually trying to imitate a more feminine voice for those lines?
• The pre-game show also included an uncomfortable interview with Commissioner Paul Tagliabue, where Bob Costas asked him some hard hitting questions about HGH, overpriced pre-season games and the fact that only the greedy owners are in favor of 18 game schedules.  The Commish put on a fake smile and provided some scripted answers.  So that was pointless.
• As for the game, it ended up being pretty exciting.  It looked like a blow out early on, but every time the Packers extended their lead, the Saints found a way to get back in the game.  Brees was on fire in the 4th quarter, leading a scoring drive in the final minutes to pull the Saints within one score.  While the on side kick attempt failed, their defense managed to force a 3 and out, giving the Saints one last shot.  In a thrilling finish, the Saints managed to march down to the Packers' 1 yard line (aided by a questionable pass interference call in the endzone as time ran out).  The Packers managed to stuff the Saints last attempt to get into the endzone, hanging onto the win by mere inches.
• Questionable play call in the end.  The Saints hadn't had much luck running it up the middle against B.J. Raji and the stout Packer front line, but on the deciding play of the game they attempted to rush Mark Ingram up the middle.  With the game on the line, I want the ball in the hands of my best player - Brees.  Allow him to try to make a play to win the game rather than give it to a rookie in his first career game.
• The new kickoff rule is in effect and we saw the impact in this game.  Of the 12 kickoffs in the game, 8 of them went for touchbacks.  In 8 home games for the Packers last season there was a total of only 2 touchbacks.  Once the weather gets colder and the winds pick up it will be harder to kick it as deep, at least in a place like Green Bay, but we can already see a noticeable difference the rule has made.
• On the other hand, kick returns are far from eliminated.  Packers rookie Randall Cobb returned a kick 108 yards for a TD and Darren Sproles had a few nice returns for the Saints, in addition to his punt return for a TD.  Some of their success may be attributed to sloppy tackling and poor execution, a potential impact of the shortened off-season.  As the year goes on we may see even less kicks returned.
• Two of the league's best QBs put on an aerial show.  A good chunk of Brees' 419 passing yards came in the 4th quarter as the Saints desperately hurried to catch up, but it's impressive nonetheless.  Rodgers wasn't too shabby either, with 312 yards of his own.  Each of them also had 3 TDs.  With less incentive to pass late in the game and a much higher completion percentage, Rodgers had the better performance, but they each showed why they are amongst the elite.
• Brian Urlacher dominated the Falcons, picking off a pass and returning a fumble for a TD, as the Bears routed the Falcons in Chicago. 
• Despite a decent yardage total from Matt Ryan, the Falcons offense never really got going.  Their only TD of the game came from their defense.  The same defense, which besides for that pick six play, made Jay Cutler look like a star again.
• Hyped rookie Julio Jones caught 5 passes for 71 yards, following just short of the team lead.  A good sign going forward, but hardly the breakout many were hoping given the boatload of draft picks they gave up to get him.
• Bengals rookie QB Andy Dalton got his team off to a quick start before leaving with an injury, but Bruce Gradkowski came in to finish off the upset victory.
• On the game winning TD in the 4th quarter, Gradkowski caught the Browns defense napping.  Before the defense had time to even line up and get in position, Gradkowski snapped the ball and found a wide open AJ Green for a 41 yard TD reception.
• The theory that the Bengals will be one of the worst teams in the league took a bit of a hit after this shocking outcome, but it still doesn't change my view of them being a losing team.  Nice win for them, but last place is still their likely finish.  The Browns on the other hand were a popular sleeper team, thanks in part to an easy early schedule.  As was the case with their troubles last year, they once again seem to be playing down to their competition, which could doom their chances of being a team that jumps to a winning record this season.
• Speaking of upsets from teams we expected to be terrible, the Bills blew out the Chiefs in KC.  Typically a team that plays very well at home and coming off a season where they made the playoffs, the Chiefs were expected to be the ones to roll through this matchup.  Instead, it was the opposite.
• Ryan Fitzpatrick enjoyed a 4 or 5 week stretch in the middle of last season where he was statistically one of the best QBs in the league.  Granted stats that include high yardage totals can be misleading for a team that often is playing from behind and forced to throw a lot, but at least we've seen a small sample of this before.  Enough so that maybe we shouldn't have been surprised by his 4 TD performance.
• The Chiefs were one of the teams that I downgraded this year, expecting them to fall short of the playoffs this season after they won the division last year thanks to a creampuff schedule.  Considering they now can't beat the supposedly easy teams, perhaps I didn't downgrade them quite enough.
• The Michael Vick show was on display through the air and on the ground.  Along with playmakers like DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy, this Eagles offense is going to be tough to stop.
• Shady McCoy is as dangerous a receiver out of the backfield as there is in the league, notching a receiving TD in this one.  His big day showed that he is plenty capable of getting it done on the ground as well.  Check out this 49 yard TD run.
• It was hard enough dealing with the Eagles' revamped pass defense, but things only got worse for the Rams.  First, their top receiver Danny Amendola went down with an ugly dislocated elbow which puts his season in doubt.  Then the face of the franchise, QB Sam Bradford left after hitting his finger against an opponent's helmet.  They don't expect the injury to be too serious, but seeing him removed from the game due to any injury has to scare the Rams a bit.
• Stephan Jackson also left the game with an injury, but that surprises no one.
• In a battle of two young up and coming teams, the Lions outlasted the Bucs.  Tampa made a valiant comeback attempt late in the game, with Josh Freeman connecting with Mike Williams in the endzone to pull within one score with about a minute and a half remaining.  The dramatic finish came to a close after the Bucs failed on their on side kick attempt, allowing Detroit to run out the clock to end the game.
• Matthew Stafford made it through Week 1 injury free.  As I've said before, the Lions are a team on the rise, with a shot at a playoff spot if Stafford can stay healthy.  He's now 1/16th of the way there.  When he stays on the field he gets the chance to display his impressive talent, racking up over 300 yards and 3 TDs.
• Two of those TDs went to Calvin Johnson, who is an absolute beast on the field.  He's another young Lions star with a worrisome injury history though.
• Remember when we were excited about LeGarrette Blount after he rushed for over 1,000 yards in only 10 starts last season?  5 carries for 15 yards in the opener takes away some of that excitement.  Maybe he's just waiting until Week 7 to really get started.  I think it's also safe to assume the Bucs won't completely abandon the running game so early every week.
• Is there any more uncertain division than the AFC South?  Peyton Manning's injury puts the division up for grabs.  Not much was expected from Jacksonville, especially after they released their starting QB a week before the season started, but a big win over the Titans at least gets them off to a good start.  Or maybe it just shows that the Titans won't be the team to take advantage of the opening at the top of the division.
• Hey Chris Johnson, congrats on the new contract!  Holding out through the entire pre-season clearly had no impact on your adjustment to a new offense after a shortened off-season.  Then again... 9 carries for a pedestrian 24 yards?  Nevermind.
• When Kenny Britt is healthy and not getting into trouble with the law, he's actually a pretty darn good football player.  136 yards and 2 TDs, one of which came after the play had broken down and Hasselbeck shoved the ball in his direction in desperation.  Britt bailed out his QB, taking the ball to the house for an 80 yard TD.
• In a game between two of the league's fiercest rivals, in which the games are typically low scoring close battles, the Ravens changed up the script this time by dominating the Steelers.  After a lot of talk about how the Ravens defense has gotten old, they proved their experience makes them a still dominant unit, forcing 7 turnovers in the game.
• 5 of those turnovers came from an overmatched Ben Roethliberger (3 Ints, 2 fumbles).  The Ravens defense treated Big Ben the way Ben treats college girls in bar restrooms.
• Ray Rice is making my prediction of a monster season from him look good early on, with 149 total yards and 2 TDs.
• We new there would be a drop off by the Colts with Manning out of the game, but this was ugly.  Kerry Collins looks like an old guy they picked up off the streets a couple weeks ago.  Oh wait, that's exactly what he is.  Colts fans could be in for a long season while they await Manning's return, which may not even happen this season the way things are going.
• The Texans are looking like the smart pick to run away with the AFC South.  Well, if it weren't for a questionable head coach and a history of dwindling down the stretch anyway.  They looked pretty dominant this week though.  Granted a Manning-less Colts offense isn't much to worry about, but the Texans much maligned defense looks to have improved already.
• The Colts may have been without Manning, but the Texans were without last year's league leading rusher, Arian Foster.  Yet they didn't miss a beat, with Ben Tate and Derrick Ward combining for 155 yards and 2 TDs on the ground.  That may actually just say more about the importance of the QB to an offense in comparison to RBs.  A good offense can plug just about anybody in the backfield and still be effective.
• He didn't manage to win in his NFL debut, but Cam Newton gave us plenty to be impressed with.  He tied a rookie record for most passing yards in a game (422) and obliterated the previous mark for a rookie debut.  The future just got a little brighter for Newton and the Panthers.
• Meanwhile, Kevin Kolb wasn't too shabby in his Cardinal's debut.  His stats weren't as eye popping as Newton's, but he proved capable of running the offense to victory and may have showed just enough to get Larry Fizgerald to stop counting down the days until he can escape the desert.
• Then again, maybe these impressive performances can be partially attributed to the fact that they did it against terrible defenses from two of the worst teams in the league last season.  Let's wait to see a larger sample size before we shower either of them with too much praise.
• Philip Rivers started off slow, but finished strong to lead his Chargers to a rare September victory. 
• The running game never got going, but San Diego's two headed backfield was very effective in the passing game.  Mike Tolbert stole the show, scoring 3 TDs (two through the air).
• Donovan McNabb started off slow... then never got going.  I know the Chargers were the top ranked defense in total yardage last year, but 39 passing yards?  Really?  Poor Adrian Peterson is going to have to carry this offense again.
• The Chargers struggles on special teams haven't gone away, as they gave up a kick off return for a TD to Percy Harvin to open the game.  The game likely wouldn't have been even close if it weren't for poor special teams play, something the Chargers should be used to by now.
• To make things worse for their special teams unit, kicker Nate Kaeding was injured on the opening kick off, forcing their punter into all kicking situations. This predictably made the Chargers a bit hesitant in field goal situations, forcing them to try to convert some 4th down attempts that they typically wouldn't have been bold enough to go for
• Ted Ginn, Jr. was the star for the 49ers.  He returned a kick off and a punt for TDs late in the 4th quarter to put the game out of reach.
• Did Seattle really expect Tarvaris Jackson to be the answer, or are they all in on the Andrew Luck sweepstakes?
• Did Rex Grossman suddenly become a viable NFL starting QB, or is the injury ridden Giants defense just this bad right now?  I'm leaning toward the latter. 
• Hakeem Nicks was the only reliable weapon for the Giants, accounting for nearly half of the yardage put up my Eli Manning.  The 68 yard bomb that he caught to set up their first TD was their best offensive play of the day.
• Speaking of that first score, you can count the number of times Eli has run the ball into the endzone himself on one hand, yet he managed to do it early in this game. 
• It's like deja vu for the Cowboys, as their season opens with yet another late game collapse aided by a series of miscues down the stretch.
• Romo fumbled on the Jets' 3 yard line, preventing the score that likely would have sealed the game. 
• A blocked punt was returned for another Jets TD to tie the game.
• After getting the ball back with yet another chance to put the game away, Romo makes an awful decision to throw to a well covered Dez Bryant, resulting in Revis easily intercepting the pass.  This puts the Jets in great field position, leading to the game winning FG.
• Did you know Plaxico Burres is out of jail? He was out of the league for 2 years, which apparently was enough time for people to forget that Plax isn't going to beat anyone deep. It took Sanchez until the 4th quarter to realize nobody can stop a pass that he throws up for Plax to grab. It worked for a late TD that was key to their comeback victory.
• Conditioning may be an issue early in the season due to a lack of off-season training. This was the first week that players were expected to play a full game, and in same cases it showed. In the Jets/Cowboys game, several players, including Revis, Cromartie and Bryant, had to leave the game temporarily due to what was reported as leg cramps. Bryant was noticeably gassed near the end of the game and may be partly to blame for that Revis interception.
• Tom Brady set a franchise record by shredding the Dolphins for 517 passing yards, 5th most for a single game in league history.
• Chad Henne put up some big numbers as well.  He benefited from adding a lot of extra yardage in garbage time to reach his lofty total of 416 yards, but he was still having a pretty good game late into the third quarter when the game was still close.  Brady and Henne combined to set a record for the most passing yards by opposing QBs in the same game.
• Brady threw his first regular season interception since Week 5 of last season to end his record setting streak.  It came on a fluke play, where the ball was deflected off his intended receiver.  The ball bounced high in the air and took a fortunate bounce for Miami defensive end, Jared Odrick, who ran the ball back 39 yards to set up Miami's second TD of the game.
• The Patriots surprised the Dolphins defense by playing up tempo for most of the game, primarily sticking with two receiver/two tight end sets to allow them to quickly run another play without allowing Miami to substitute and get set.  The Pats were supposed to be the ones that would struggle in the heat of a warm Miami night, but it was the Dolphins that appeared to suffer more from exhaustion.  Multiple times in the game Miami was forced to call time out just to catch their breath.
• The play of the game goes to Wes Welker for his 99 yard TD reception that sealed the game for the Pats.  Miami clearly wasn't prepared for Welker to run a deep route, despite that Welker had done so earlier in the game.  Backed up to their own 1 yard line, teams will often run a conservative run play to push themselves a couple of yards further from the endzone to avoid allowing a costly safety.  Credit the Pats for being aggressive, coming out in the shotgun formation in their own endzone, which rewarded them with a huge play.
• Oakland won it's 8th straight game against fellow AFC West opponents with a victory in Denver.  Unfortunately for them, they had trouble beating just about anyone outside of their own division last year, and the Chargers can't possibly play as poorly this year.
• Sebastian Janikowski tied a record with a 63 yard field goal to end the first half.  A lot of teams wouldn't bother trying from that distance, instead opting to pray for a Hail Mary attempt to end the half.  The powerful leg of Janikowski combined with the thin air in Denver were the perfect mix for the historic kick, which ended up being the difference in the game.
• Despite the new kick-off rule, which was supposed to limit the amount of returns, we saw three kick-offs returned for TDs this week.  I noticed the many teams seem more willing to take a chance on a return, even when the ball is fielded deep in their own endzone, almost as if in defiance of the new rule. 
• One reason may be that kick returners are now awaiting the ball deeper in their own endzones.  In the past, returners would line up near the goal line, or even out of the endzone.  This would often mean they had to take a step back to field the kick, disrupting their momentum.  Now lining up deeper to begin with the returner doesn't need to step back, and in some cases may already be moving forward in order catch the ball, giving them added momentum in the right direction.  Meanwhile, defenders aren't allowed to line up more than 5 yards back of where the ball is kicked, allowing for less of a running start and therefore less velocity and momentum as they charge toward the returner.  This should still help decrease the force of collisions, while also still limiting the amount of returns due to a kickers ability to kick the ball out of the endzone.  However, could it be that the new rule also could lead to more long returns? 
• Another new rule this year is that all touchdowns will automatically be reviewed by the booth.  This has a big impact, aside from the added delay between scores.  It's good that the reviews will help ensure the right call gets made.  However, it means that coaches no longer have to worry about saving a challenge to overturn a call on a scoring play.  Could this mean coaches will be less conservative with challenges on other plays? 
• Already we've seen several calls overturned on scoring plays, including one that aided each side in the Pats/Dolphins game.

NFL Rankings

The NFL kicks off its regular season this week, with the defending champions Packers hosting the Saints on Thursday night.  There is no crystal ball to predict how the season will play out.  Some teams will exceed expectations while others will disappoint.  A lot can change between now and the end of the season, but based on what we know now, here is how I rank each team in the league.

32.  Buffalo Bills
Last season: 4-12
Prediction this season: 2-14
The woeful Bills have been struggling to rebuild for years.  Despite having strung together years of poor performances, they haven't been quite bad enough to land a top pick that they could use on a franchise QB.  They've been forced to try to get by with below average options at the game's most important position.  Until they find the right player to build around they will be doomed to mediocrity at best.  This could be the year that they tank in hopes of finally putting themselves in position to draft the most coveted QB in next year's draft.  It's time for the Bills to "suck for Luck."

31.  Cincinnati Bengals
Last season: 4-12
Prediction this season: 3-13
This was a bad team that only got worse with the loss of some key veterans.  When once elite QB Carson Palmer demanded a trade, threatening to retire rather than spend another year playing for the Bungals, General Manager Mike Brown stubbornly refused to give in to his demands.  Great, so he stuck to his guns and refused to let a player hold the franchise hostage, but in doing so he cost himself a chance to trade Palmer for valuable draft picks for their rebuilding process.  They will start the season with rookie QB Andy Dalton, who can't possibly be close to ready to be an NFL starter after a lockout shortened off-season, for an offense missing it's two top targets from last season (Ochocinco was traded to the Patriots and T.O. is slowly recovering from off-season surgery).  They also lost their best defensive player, CB Jonathan Joseph, to free agency.  Hmm, maybe predicting 3 wins was too generous. 


30.  Washington Redskins
Last season: 6-10
Prediction this season: 4-12
How Daniel Snyder is still allowed to own an NFL team is beyond me.  His solution of throwing money at a problem has never worked for him in the past, yet he never learns.  After signing Albert Haynseworth to a $100 Million deal, he was forced to give up on the disgruntled defensive lineman after two disappointing seasons and received only a future 5th round draft pick in return.  Then he traded a 2nd and 4th round draft pick for Donovan McNabb last year, only to allow the team to misuse him and destroy his value, so that they only managed to get a couple of 6th round picks in return for him.  They now have little to show for all they invested in high priced veterans and have the displeasure of watching a QB battle between Rex Grossman and John Beck play out over another losing season.


29.  Carolina Panthers
Last season: 2-14
Prediction this season: 4-12
The Panthers probably weren't quite as bad as their record last year shows, as they were victimized by a string of injuries to their stable of talented running backs and inconsistent QB play.  Better health from DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart will help.  Cam Newton won't immediately make them a much better team, but he's a step in the right direction.  Overpaying to keep together a core of players from a losing team may not prove to be the best investment, but they can't get much worse.  There's nowhere to go but up for this team.


28.  Denver Broncos
Last season: 4-12
Prediction this season: 5-11
The disastrous reign of Josh McDaniels still has the Broncos in a deep hole, but bringing in someone with the experience of John Fox to stabilize the situation should help.  It will be interesting to see if the new coaching staff sees Tim Tebow as a franchise QB.  They have already given the starting job to Kyle Orton, which is the right move for them to win now, but not necessarily right for Tebow's development.  They need to figure out their future plans at the position before this team can take another step forward.


27.  Seattle Seahawks
Last season: 7-9
Prediction this season: 6-10
They shocked the world last season on their way to the divisional playoff round last season.  Shocking not just because they upset the Saints in the first round, but more so that the NFL actually allowed a team with a losing record to host a playoff game.  How did that debacle not lead to a change in the playoff format?  It won't take much to knock them out of playoff contention, and replacing veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck with Tavarias Jackson could drop them to the bottom of a bad division.


26.  San Francisco 49ers
Last season: 6-10
Prediction this season: 6-10
Alex Smith is still their QB, so there's only so high they can go.  Their defense underperformed last year, but is talented enough to expect a bit of a bounce back season.  It'd be nice if Michael Crabtree could show us some of the talent that he felt warranted a hold out in his rookie season.  If Frank Gore can stay healthy for a full season then he'll have enough of an impact to prevent the 49ers from finishing last in their division. 


25.  Cleveland Browns
Last season: 5-11
Prediction this season: 6-10
A puzzling team, that seemed to play well against their tougher competition, but play down to weaker opponents.  Payton Hillis had a monster break out season a year ago, but the way he broke down at the end of the year suggests they won't be able to lean on him quite as much this time.  They are slowly improving, but young QB Colt McCoy needs more seasoning before he can take this team much further.


24.  Oakland Raiders
Last season: 8-8
Prediction this season: 7-9
Of course the Raiders would rise up to a solid .500 season the year the Patriots owned their first round draft pick.  Now it's back to another losing season in Oakland.  Losing Asomugha to free agency is a big hit to their pass defense, as it opens up that whole side of the field that the star CB once shut down for them.  They need to hope that Darren McFadden can stay healthy enough to carry the offense, which he's never done for a full season.  The Raiders are also one of those teams most impacted by the new kick off rules, as speedy young weapon Jacoby Ford will have less chances to run one back, while Sebastian Janikowski's powerful leg is negated by the fact that it's now much easier for anyone to kick one out of the endzone for a touchback.


23.  Jacksonville Jaguars
Last season: 8-8
Prediction this season: 7-9
The Jags are hard to predict, in part because of the uncertainty of Maurice Jones-Drew's return from off-season knee surgery.  They nearly snuck into the playoffs last year, led by the always underrated David Garrard, and in a weak division they could find a way to make it in this year.  Then again, I could just as easily see them getting off to a rough start and turning things over to Blaine Gabbert to stagger to a 5 or 6 win season.  The team recently released Garrard and announced days before the season opener that Luke McCown will begin the year as the starting QB.  That's not a good sign.  The good news for the Jags is that even if they don't win, at least nobody will be watching anyway.

22.  Arizona Cardinals
Last season: 5-11
Prediction this season: 7-9
There is some debate over whether Kevin Kolb is really the answer, but he certainly can't be any worse than the options they cycled through last year.  Larry Fizgerald is an elite target that can help (almost) any QB look good.  The problem could be with their running game, as Beanie Wells has yet to prove himself as a capable workhorse back.  They traded away Tim Hightower, and his rookie replacement, Ryan Williams, was lost to a season ending injury.  They were already a team that ran the ball less than anyone in the league and that's not likely to change.  Is Kolb up for the challenge, or will he face the harsh reality that running the offense in the desert isn't the same as they system he was used to in Philadelphia?  He has talent, but his inconsistent play in a small sample size of games makes that too big of a question mark to make them a favorite in their division.


21.  Miami Dolphins
Last season: 7-9
Prediction this season: 8-8
They replaced their aging backfield with a duo of rookie Daniel Thomas and the flashy (yet overrated) Reggie Bush.  Thomas has disappointed in the pre-season and Bush is more dangerous as a receiver and not likely to be counted on to carry the load.  Plus, their QB is still Chad Henne.  They still have some elite players, like WR Brandon Marshall, LT Jake Long and LB Cameron Wake, which gives them some hope.  Playing in the same division as the Patriots and Jets though puts a damper on any expectations of winning the AFC East.


20.  Minnesota Vikings
Last season: 6-10
Prediction this season: 8-8
Brett Favre is really gone, right?  Are we sure?  As far as we know, yes.  Unfortunately, he's been replaced by another past his prime veteran.  Can Donovan McNabb make a comeback to prove the Redskins were just too dysfunctional for him to thrive in?  If not, then Adrian Peterson can expect to see a lot of guys stacked in the box looking to stop him.  He may be the leagues best RB, but even he needs some help once in a while.  The loss of Sydney Rice leaves them without a primary receiving threat, but McNabb is used to that from his early days in Philly.  He'll find ways to spread it around and use explosive weapons like Percy Harvin.

19.  Tennessee Titans
Last season: 6-10
Prediction this season: 8-8
The Titans record may have been misleading last year, as they actually had a positive point differential, which would suggest a winning record.  The debacle of how the Vince Young/Jeff Fisher drama was handled certainly didn't help.  Now they've moved on with a new QB and new coach.  Hasselback should provide some more stability at the position, but he has less upside than Young and is clearly just keeping the spot warm for Jake Locker.  Chris Johnson is their primary weapon on offense, but after a lengthy hold out that was only recently resolved, it may take him some time to get back up to speed with the new system.  A slow start from him would inevitably lead to a slow start for the Titans.  Their division is wide open, so as long as they don't dig themselves too deep of an early hole then they have a shot to climb to the top by the end of the season.

18.  Chicago Bears
Last season: 11-5
Prediction this season: 8-8
Despite making a run to the NFC Championship game last season, the Bears just aren't as good as last year's record made them seem.  10 of their games were decided by 7 points or less, and they were fortunate enough to win most of those close games, where one possession could have turned around the outcome.  One of those games was the win over the Lions, where a potential game winning TD catch by Calvin Johnson was wrongfully overturned.  They still have a defense to be feared, but I don't have much hope for a team led by the mistake prone Jay Cutler to repeat last year's success.  When their biggest off-season acquisition is Roy Williams, it's hard to see how they could improve.  Meanwhile, a presumably healthier Packers team is poised to take back the division title.


17.  Kansas City Chiefs
Last season: 10-6
Prediction this season: 9-7
The Chiefs were one of the surprise teams from last season, jumping into the playoffs thanks to a cupcake schedule.  Their path should be much harder this time.  Matt Cassell will be hard pressed to sustain such a low interception rate and is already dealing with injured ribs that could keep him out of at least the first week of action.  Once he's back, the offense should still be fine, but they need to give more carries to Jamaal Charles.  He's clearly their best offensive weapon, but they had an annoying habit last year of giving carries to Thomas Jones at the expense of JC.  I can see their concern about a RB with a small frame like JC not holding up to a heavy workload, but a 50/50 split isn't going to cut it.  It needs to be more like 70/30.

16.  St. Louis Rams
Last season: 7-9
Prediction this season: 9-7
Somebody has to win the NFC West, and this time they damn well better have a winning record!  If anyone in that division can do it then I'll bet on the team with the young franchise QB.  Sam Bradford looks like the real deal, and with some added weapons to work with this year he should be able to take this team up a level.  Josh McDaniels was a miserable failure as a head coach in Denver, but he's still an offensive whiz and will help this team as their new coordinator.  If he could make Matt Cassell and Kyle Orton look like stars, imagine what he could do with a young talent like Bradford.

15.  New York Giants
Last season: 10-6
Prediction this season: 9-7
Big Blue is already off to a rough start on the injury front, especially in their secondary.  Osi Umenyiora had an ugly hold out which was resolved just in time for him to suffer an injury as well.  Luckily for them, they have a fairly easy early schedule, aside from a road game in Philly, so the injuries may not force them into too deep of an early hole.  They had better hope not, because after their bye week they finish up with 7 of their final 9 games against potential playoff teams.  Eli Manning will likely improve his interception rate, bringing down last year's league leading total of 25 picks, but he'll have to drastically improve there in order to help make up for the struggles they may have in the early going due to the injuries on the defensive end.

14.  Detroit Lions
Last season: 6-10
Prediction this season: 9-7
This is the sleeper team that everyone seems to love, and it's not hard to see why.  We're still waiting for Matthew Stafford's breakout season, and with a target with the talent of Calvin Johnson, this could be the year.  Ndamukong Suh brings some attitude to the defense, along with elite passing rushing skills.  This team is loaded with exciting young talent, enough so to make many believe they may be ready to make a big jump to playoff contention.  If they can put it all together this year then they have the talent to do it.  On the other hand, Stafford has never proven he can stay healthy and play consistently well yet in his career.  Johnson and RB Jhavid Best also have a history of nagging injuries that could strike again.  Plus, you never know when Suh could get himself suspended for decapitating a QB.  A lot has to go right for them to make that jump, and there are too many things that are more likely to go wrong to put them any higher... for now.

13.  Tampa Bay Bucs
Last season: 10-6
Prediction this season: 9-7
The young Bucs were one of last year's surprise teams, nearly making the playoffs behind a breakout season for second year QB Josh Freeman.  However, a closer look reveals that an easy schedule may have padded their win total.  They got to beat up on the woeful NFC West teams in addition to their division rival Panthers.  They failed to win a game against a team with a winning record until their week 17 victory over a Saints team that had nothing to play for.  This team still has a lot of good young talent, so I'm not expecting too much of a drop off, but a tougher schedule, and the fact that they still share a division with the Saints and Falcons, makes it hard to believe they'll be able to improve on last year's success.

12.  Indianapolis Colts
Last season: 10-6
Prediction this season: 9-7
The Colts are the most difficult team to predict thanks to questions surrounding the health of Peyton Manning.  He's still recovering from off-season neck surgery and at the moment it appears doubtful that he'll be ready to start the season.  How much time Manning may miss is the big question mark hanging over this team.  The Colts talked veteran Kerry Collins out of retirement to fill in if Manning is out of action, but that's still a pretty drastic downgrade.  How this team will play without the former MVP on the field is difficult to predict, because Manning has never missed a game in his career before.  If he were healthy to start the season then we could likely pencil this team in for double digit wins and another division title.  Without him, they probably aren't close to being a playoff team.  How many games Manning is able to suit up for will determine which end of that spectrum they finish up at.  Assuming he misses no more than a few games, the Colts will probably rally around his return and finish strong enough to stay in the hunt.  A slow start could cost them the division, but if Manning plays most of the season they should be in the mix for at least a Wild Card spot.

11.  Dallas Cowboys
Last season: 6-10
Prediction this season: 10-6
Last season's disaster included losing their starting QB for most of the season and firing their head coach mid-season.  Now Tony Romo is back on the field and the coaching situation should be more stable this season.  The offense is loaded with weapons, with Miles Austin and Dez Bryant each looking like either of them could become one of the game's top receivers.  Add in TE Jason Witten, always a favorite target of Romo's, and a potential breakout season for RB Felix Jones, and you have the makings of an explosive offense.  A lot was expected from them last season before injuries crippled them, but they'll have a chance to make up for it this year.  Expect them to flip last year's record around and be a winning team this year with a shot at getting back to the postseason.

10.   Houston Texans
Last season: 6-10
Prediction this season: 10-6
They seem to be the team that everyone expects to breakout every year and finally make the playoffs, but it never happens.  If they don't do it this year then people may start to give up on them, but there are too many reasons to believe in them this season.  For starters, the Manning injury makes the AFC South division wide open and the Texans seem to be the best equipped team in the division to take over should the Colts stumble.  Typically known as a dominant passing attack led by Matt Schuab and elite WR Andre Johnson, the Texans added a new dimension to their offense last year thanks to the unexpected breakout season by Arian Foster, who led the league in rushing last year.  They have enough weapons that nobody has ever questioned their offense.  It's the defense that has always held them back.  The secondary inparticular has been an issue, as they were the league's worst pass defense last year.  That should change this year, with additions like CB Jonathan Joseph to beef up their pass protection.  Former Dallas coach Wade Phillips comes in as their new defensive coordinator.  While he may have failed as a head coach, he has a strong history of success in this coordinator role.  He may not turn them into an elite defense overnight, but he's enough of a reason to expect enough of an improvement that this defense will no longer be a liability holding back their offense, which will still be relied on to carry the team.

9.  San Diego Chargers
Last season: 9-7
Prediction this season: 10-6
The Chargers inexplicably managed to miss the playoffs last year despite having the league's top ranked offense and defense.  The main reason for their struggles had to do with special teams, which was a disaster.  Those concerns will be partially negated by the new kick off rule, which is intended to limit the number of kick returns.  The Chargers may benefit more from this than anyone else.  They still have an elite QB in Philip Rivers, who should have a full season of Vincent Jackson to throw to this year, after the star receiver sat out during a lengthy hold out last season.  If Antonio Gates can stay healthier this year then this team has all the tools it needs to reclaim their division title.

8. New York Jets
Last season: 11-5
Prediction this season: 10-6
Having been big spenders in last year's uncapped season, the Jets were forced to make some difficult decisions this off-season, as they were unable to bring back everyone. Re-signing Santonio Holmes was a big move, but to do so they had to let go of Braylon Edwards. He's been replaced by Plaxico Burress, who spent the last two years in prison and is now 34 years old. Several other key contributors have also either moved on or retired, depriving the Jets of some of the depth that had made them so successful. With Antonio Cromartie back to pair with Darrelle Revis, they will still have one of the league's best pass defenses. If Mark Sanchez can take another step forward in his development then the Jets should find themselves back in the playoffs.

7.  Atlanta Falcons
Last season: 13-3
Prediction this season: 11-5
The Falcons were a very good team last year, but perhaps not quite as dominant as their record would indicate.  Point differential is considered a good indicator of future success.  While their +126 differential last year was still very good, it paled in comparison to the league leading +205 total from the 14 win Patriots, and also ranked far behind the 12 win Steelers (+143) and even the 10 win Packers (+148).  While it was still a good season, it shows they played in more close games than the other top teams.  Close games decided by 1 score or less can often go either way depending on a bad bounce here or there, so without a little luck their 13 win season could have just as easily been 10 or 11 wins.  They also sacrificed quite a bit to trade up to draft a rookie WR that is unlikely to perform at an elite level right away.  Still, Julio Jones is talented enough to make some impact, and the team already has an elite receiver in Roddy White that Jones should compliment well.  The Falcons have typically been known as more of a running team, but the added weapons to the passing game may signal a change to more of an aerial attack, as work horse back Michael Turner continues to get older and pile more mileage on his legs.

6.  Pittsburgh Steelers
Last season: 12-4
Prediction this season: 11-5
Since 2000, the team that has lost the Super Bowl has gone on to struggle the following season.  In 7 of those seasons since, the losing team failed to even make the playoffs the following season, with all but the 2008 Patriots finishing with a losing record that season.  The other Super Bowl losers in that time span (Seahawks, Cardinals, Colts) all had a decrease in wins the season following their Super Bowl loss and none of those teams made it passed the Divisional round of the playoffs that season.  If this Super Bowl "curse" is to be believed, the Steelers may be in trouble.  There are some reasons to think a drop off could happen.  Sticking with the subject of curses, research has shown that running backs that carry the ball more than 370 times in a season are due to regress the next season.  Counting the playoffs, Rashard Mendenhall had nearly 400 carries.  Will the "curse of 370" break down the running game they rely so heavily upon?  The Steelers may find it hard to repeat another 12 win season, especially in a tough division, but they have too much talent to completely fall apart.  They should have a full season of Ben Roethlisberger (assuming he can stay on the field and out of women's restrooms) and hopefully a healthier season from Troy Polamalu.  Expect the NFC North to come down to another dog fight between the Steelers and their rivals from Baltimore.

5.  Baltimore Ravens
Last season: 12-4
Prediction this season: 12-4
Baltimore's inability to get over the hump has always been due to struggles to get the better of the Steelers.  If ever there was a year for them to overtake their most bitter rival, it's while the Steelers are recovering from their Super Bowl hangover.  Their defense is getting older, but is still dangerous.  Joe Flacco seems right on the edge of being an elite QB.  Whether or not he can put together a strong season to cement his status in that class, or whether he takes a step back to being an inconsistent talent still unproven as a winner, will determine how far the Ravens will go.  Expect a monster season from Ray Rice.  He's already proven himself to be one of the league's most lethal rushers, in addition to one of the best pass catching threats out of the backfield.  He'll now get to run behind blocking full back Vontee Leech, the man who helped block for Arian Foster during his league leading campaign last year.  Rice has the talent and opportunity to lead the league this year, which only strengthens the Ravens case for winning their division.

4.  New Orleans Saints
Last season: 11-5
Prediction this season: 12-4
Drew Brees has always been known for his impressive accuracy, so it was a surprise to see so many of his passes picked off last year (22 - second worst in the league).  Expect that number to drop this year.  He'll be helped by a revamped running game, led by rookie Mark Ingram and a healthy Pierre Thomas.  Reggie Bush may be gone, but Darren Sproles was brought in to fill most of that void at a fraction of the price.  The defense didn't come up with quite as many big plays last year as they did in their Super Bowl season, but if they can bounce back to play somewhere in between then that should be plenty to carry them to the top of the division.

3.  Green Bay Packers
Last season: 10-6
Prediction this season: 12-4
People tend to forget, given that they went on to win the Super Bowl, but the Packers barely managed to sneak into the playoffs last season.  They needed wins in their last two regular season games just to get in as a Wild Card, but managed to get on a role at the right time and carried that momentum to a title.  That's not to say that the Packers aren't just an elite team, it's just to point out why the defending champs fall a bit short of the top of this list.  On the other hand, they still have that Aaron Rodgers guy, so I'm sure they'll still be pretty good.  They can also hope to expect healthier seasons from their running backs as well as the return of stud TE JerMichael Finley.  Even Rodgers couldn't manage to make it through all 16 games.  If they can get a little luckier in the health department then they have the talent to be an elite team once again.

2.  Philadelphia Eagles
Last season: 10-6
Prediction this season: 13-3
Michael Vick may be the most dynamic player in the game, but also the biggest wild card.  He's coming off a season where he had one of the best stastical years of any QB, despite only playing in 12 games.  He had several games, most notably a thrashing of the Redskins, where he dominated the opposition, single handedly taking over games to deliver a victory.  The problem is, he only played 12 games.  A full season of Vick makes the Eagles Super Bowl contenders, but there are few players that carry as much risk for injury, given his fearless (perhaps reckless) style of play.  His career season was helped in part by the receiving talent around him, which is much deeper and more talented than anything he had worked with before back in his days in Atlanta.  With explosive playmakers like DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy around him, Vick doesn't need to try to do it all on his own.  If he keeps that in mind, it might help keep him healthy and on the field more.  As important as it is to have Vick on the field more this year, the defensive upgrades will be just as important to the Eagle's chances to move up to the top of the conference.  They shocked the world by signing the biggest off-season prize, shut down corner Nnamdi Asomugha.  He joins two other Pro Bowl caliber corners in Asante Samuel and Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie (who also just joined the team from Arizona as part of the Kolb trade).  The trio gives them the deepest and most talented secondary in the league.  They have the ability to shut down both sides of the field and still have an elite corner to lock on to the opponents slot receiver.  Good luck finding much success passing against this defense.

1.  New England Patriots
Last season: 14-2
Prediction this season: 13-3
Go ahead, call it a homer pick, but keep in mind that the Patriots had the league's top record last season as well.  I realize they haven't won a playoff game since the depressing Super Bowl loss to the Giants deprived them of perfection, but these rankings are for the regular season.  Ok, so I also picked the Pats to beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl as well, so what?  Last I checked, they still have MVP Tom Brady as their QB and the genius that most people around the league consider to be one of the greatest coaches of all time.  So what's not to like?  They may have even improved themselves this year.  Their biggest flaw last season was an inability to rush the passer, which led to a league worst ranking on 3rd down plays for their defense.  So now they've revamped the defense, switching to a 4-3 base attack to better suit their new personnel, like Albert Haynseworth.  Say what you will about his attitude or his failures in Washington, but he was never a good fit for that system and was unhappy with his role.  Belichick seems intent not to make that same mistake.  He's a big risk, but he appears happy and motivated now that he's in New England, which could lead to him getting back to being the pass rushing force that once made him a star.  They also added Chad Ochocinco to add another threat to an already dangerous passing attack.  He may have lost a step from his prime years, but he's still one of the league's best route runners and has great hands.  While he's struggled so far to learn the playbook and get on the same page as Brady, the same things were once said about Randy Moss when he first joined the team.  We know how that turned out that season.  Perhaps it's wishful thinking, but I certainly won't bet against Brady and the Pats to finish at the top.