NFL Rankings

The NFL kicks off its regular season this week, with the defending champions Packers hosting the Saints on Thursday night.  There is no crystal ball to predict how the season will play out.  Some teams will exceed expectations while others will disappoint.  A lot can change between now and the end of the season, but based on what we know now, here is how I rank each team in the league.

32.  Buffalo Bills
Last season: 4-12
Prediction this season: 2-14
The woeful Bills have been struggling to rebuild for years.  Despite having strung together years of poor performances, they haven't been quite bad enough to land a top pick that they could use on a franchise QB.  They've been forced to try to get by with below average options at the game's most important position.  Until they find the right player to build around they will be doomed to mediocrity at best.  This could be the year that they tank in hopes of finally putting themselves in position to draft the most coveted QB in next year's draft.  It's time for the Bills to "suck for Luck."

31.  Cincinnati Bengals
Last season: 4-12
Prediction this season: 3-13
This was a bad team that only got worse with the loss of some key veterans.  When once elite QB Carson Palmer demanded a trade, threatening to retire rather than spend another year playing for the Bungals, General Manager Mike Brown stubbornly refused to give in to his demands.  Great, so he stuck to his guns and refused to let a player hold the franchise hostage, but in doing so he cost himself a chance to trade Palmer for valuable draft picks for their rebuilding process.  They will start the season with rookie QB Andy Dalton, who can't possibly be close to ready to be an NFL starter after a lockout shortened off-season, for an offense missing it's two top targets from last season (Ochocinco was traded to the Patriots and T.O. is slowly recovering from off-season surgery).  They also lost their best defensive player, CB Jonathan Joseph, to free agency.  Hmm, maybe predicting 3 wins was too generous. 


30.  Washington Redskins
Last season: 6-10
Prediction this season: 4-12
How Daniel Snyder is still allowed to own an NFL team is beyond me.  His solution of throwing money at a problem has never worked for him in the past, yet he never learns.  After signing Albert Haynseworth to a $100 Million deal, he was forced to give up on the disgruntled defensive lineman after two disappointing seasons and received only a future 5th round draft pick in return.  Then he traded a 2nd and 4th round draft pick for Donovan McNabb last year, only to allow the team to misuse him and destroy his value, so that they only managed to get a couple of 6th round picks in return for him.  They now have little to show for all they invested in high priced veterans and have the displeasure of watching a QB battle between Rex Grossman and John Beck play out over another losing season.


29.  Carolina Panthers
Last season: 2-14
Prediction this season: 4-12
The Panthers probably weren't quite as bad as their record last year shows, as they were victimized by a string of injuries to their stable of talented running backs and inconsistent QB play.  Better health from DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart will help.  Cam Newton won't immediately make them a much better team, but he's a step in the right direction.  Overpaying to keep together a core of players from a losing team may not prove to be the best investment, but they can't get much worse.  There's nowhere to go but up for this team.


28.  Denver Broncos
Last season: 4-12
Prediction this season: 5-11
The disastrous reign of Josh McDaniels still has the Broncos in a deep hole, but bringing in someone with the experience of John Fox to stabilize the situation should help.  It will be interesting to see if the new coaching staff sees Tim Tebow as a franchise QB.  They have already given the starting job to Kyle Orton, which is the right move for them to win now, but not necessarily right for Tebow's development.  They need to figure out their future plans at the position before this team can take another step forward.


27.  Seattle Seahawks
Last season: 7-9
Prediction this season: 6-10
They shocked the world last season on their way to the divisional playoff round last season.  Shocking not just because they upset the Saints in the first round, but more so that the NFL actually allowed a team with a losing record to host a playoff game.  How did that debacle not lead to a change in the playoff format?  It won't take much to knock them out of playoff contention, and replacing veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck with Tavarias Jackson could drop them to the bottom of a bad division.


26.  San Francisco 49ers
Last season: 6-10
Prediction this season: 6-10
Alex Smith is still their QB, so there's only so high they can go.  Their defense underperformed last year, but is talented enough to expect a bit of a bounce back season.  It'd be nice if Michael Crabtree could show us some of the talent that he felt warranted a hold out in his rookie season.  If Frank Gore can stay healthy for a full season then he'll have enough of an impact to prevent the 49ers from finishing last in their division. 


25.  Cleveland Browns
Last season: 5-11
Prediction this season: 6-10
A puzzling team, that seemed to play well against their tougher competition, but play down to weaker opponents.  Payton Hillis had a monster break out season a year ago, but the way he broke down at the end of the year suggests they won't be able to lean on him quite as much this time.  They are slowly improving, but young QB Colt McCoy needs more seasoning before he can take this team much further.


24.  Oakland Raiders
Last season: 8-8
Prediction this season: 7-9
Of course the Raiders would rise up to a solid .500 season the year the Patriots owned their first round draft pick.  Now it's back to another losing season in Oakland.  Losing Asomugha to free agency is a big hit to their pass defense, as it opens up that whole side of the field that the star CB once shut down for them.  They need to hope that Darren McFadden can stay healthy enough to carry the offense, which he's never done for a full season.  The Raiders are also one of those teams most impacted by the new kick off rules, as speedy young weapon Jacoby Ford will have less chances to run one back, while Sebastian Janikowski's powerful leg is negated by the fact that it's now much easier for anyone to kick one out of the endzone for a touchback.


23.  Jacksonville Jaguars
Last season: 8-8
Prediction this season: 7-9
The Jags are hard to predict, in part because of the uncertainty of Maurice Jones-Drew's return from off-season knee surgery.  They nearly snuck into the playoffs last year, led by the always underrated David Garrard, and in a weak division they could find a way to make it in this year.  Then again, I could just as easily see them getting off to a rough start and turning things over to Blaine Gabbert to stagger to a 5 or 6 win season.  The team recently released Garrard and announced days before the season opener that Luke McCown will begin the year as the starting QB.  That's not a good sign.  The good news for the Jags is that even if they don't win, at least nobody will be watching anyway.

22.  Arizona Cardinals
Last season: 5-11
Prediction this season: 7-9
There is some debate over whether Kevin Kolb is really the answer, but he certainly can't be any worse than the options they cycled through last year.  Larry Fizgerald is an elite target that can help (almost) any QB look good.  The problem could be with their running game, as Beanie Wells has yet to prove himself as a capable workhorse back.  They traded away Tim Hightower, and his rookie replacement, Ryan Williams, was lost to a season ending injury.  They were already a team that ran the ball less than anyone in the league and that's not likely to change.  Is Kolb up for the challenge, or will he face the harsh reality that running the offense in the desert isn't the same as they system he was used to in Philadelphia?  He has talent, but his inconsistent play in a small sample size of games makes that too big of a question mark to make them a favorite in their division.


21.  Miami Dolphins
Last season: 7-9
Prediction this season: 8-8
They replaced their aging backfield with a duo of rookie Daniel Thomas and the flashy (yet overrated) Reggie Bush.  Thomas has disappointed in the pre-season and Bush is more dangerous as a receiver and not likely to be counted on to carry the load.  Plus, their QB is still Chad Henne.  They still have some elite players, like WR Brandon Marshall, LT Jake Long and LB Cameron Wake, which gives them some hope.  Playing in the same division as the Patriots and Jets though puts a damper on any expectations of winning the AFC East.


20.  Minnesota Vikings
Last season: 6-10
Prediction this season: 8-8
Brett Favre is really gone, right?  Are we sure?  As far as we know, yes.  Unfortunately, he's been replaced by another past his prime veteran.  Can Donovan McNabb make a comeback to prove the Redskins were just too dysfunctional for him to thrive in?  If not, then Adrian Peterson can expect to see a lot of guys stacked in the box looking to stop him.  He may be the leagues best RB, but even he needs some help once in a while.  The loss of Sydney Rice leaves them without a primary receiving threat, but McNabb is used to that from his early days in Philly.  He'll find ways to spread it around and use explosive weapons like Percy Harvin.

19.  Tennessee Titans
Last season: 6-10
Prediction this season: 8-8
The Titans record may have been misleading last year, as they actually had a positive point differential, which would suggest a winning record.  The debacle of how the Vince Young/Jeff Fisher drama was handled certainly didn't help.  Now they've moved on with a new QB and new coach.  Hasselback should provide some more stability at the position, but he has less upside than Young and is clearly just keeping the spot warm for Jake Locker.  Chris Johnson is their primary weapon on offense, but after a lengthy hold out that was only recently resolved, it may take him some time to get back up to speed with the new system.  A slow start from him would inevitably lead to a slow start for the Titans.  Their division is wide open, so as long as they don't dig themselves too deep of an early hole then they have a shot to climb to the top by the end of the season.

18.  Chicago Bears
Last season: 11-5
Prediction this season: 8-8
Despite making a run to the NFC Championship game last season, the Bears just aren't as good as last year's record made them seem.  10 of their games were decided by 7 points or less, and they were fortunate enough to win most of those close games, where one possession could have turned around the outcome.  One of those games was the win over the Lions, where a potential game winning TD catch by Calvin Johnson was wrongfully overturned.  They still have a defense to be feared, but I don't have much hope for a team led by the mistake prone Jay Cutler to repeat last year's success.  When their biggest off-season acquisition is Roy Williams, it's hard to see how they could improve.  Meanwhile, a presumably healthier Packers team is poised to take back the division title.


17.  Kansas City Chiefs
Last season: 10-6
Prediction this season: 9-7
The Chiefs were one of the surprise teams from last season, jumping into the playoffs thanks to a cupcake schedule.  Their path should be much harder this time.  Matt Cassell will be hard pressed to sustain such a low interception rate and is already dealing with injured ribs that could keep him out of at least the first week of action.  Once he's back, the offense should still be fine, but they need to give more carries to Jamaal Charles.  He's clearly their best offensive weapon, but they had an annoying habit last year of giving carries to Thomas Jones at the expense of JC.  I can see their concern about a RB with a small frame like JC not holding up to a heavy workload, but a 50/50 split isn't going to cut it.  It needs to be more like 70/30.

16.  St. Louis Rams
Last season: 7-9
Prediction this season: 9-7
Somebody has to win the NFC West, and this time they damn well better have a winning record!  If anyone in that division can do it then I'll bet on the team with the young franchise QB.  Sam Bradford looks like the real deal, and with some added weapons to work with this year he should be able to take this team up a level.  Josh McDaniels was a miserable failure as a head coach in Denver, but he's still an offensive whiz and will help this team as their new coordinator.  If he could make Matt Cassell and Kyle Orton look like stars, imagine what he could do with a young talent like Bradford.

15.  New York Giants
Last season: 10-6
Prediction this season: 9-7
Big Blue is already off to a rough start on the injury front, especially in their secondary.  Osi Umenyiora had an ugly hold out which was resolved just in time for him to suffer an injury as well.  Luckily for them, they have a fairly easy early schedule, aside from a road game in Philly, so the injuries may not force them into too deep of an early hole.  They had better hope not, because after their bye week they finish up with 7 of their final 9 games against potential playoff teams.  Eli Manning will likely improve his interception rate, bringing down last year's league leading total of 25 picks, but he'll have to drastically improve there in order to help make up for the struggles they may have in the early going due to the injuries on the defensive end.

14.  Detroit Lions
Last season: 6-10
Prediction this season: 9-7
This is the sleeper team that everyone seems to love, and it's not hard to see why.  We're still waiting for Matthew Stafford's breakout season, and with a target with the talent of Calvin Johnson, this could be the year.  Ndamukong Suh brings some attitude to the defense, along with elite passing rushing skills.  This team is loaded with exciting young talent, enough so to make many believe they may be ready to make a big jump to playoff contention.  If they can put it all together this year then they have the talent to do it.  On the other hand, Stafford has never proven he can stay healthy and play consistently well yet in his career.  Johnson and RB Jhavid Best also have a history of nagging injuries that could strike again.  Plus, you never know when Suh could get himself suspended for decapitating a QB.  A lot has to go right for them to make that jump, and there are too many things that are more likely to go wrong to put them any higher... for now.

13.  Tampa Bay Bucs
Last season: 10-6
Prediction this season: 9-7
The young Bucs were one of last year's surprise teams, nearly making the playoffs behind a breakout season for second year QB Josh Freeman.  However, a closer look reveals that an easy schedule may have padded their win total.  They got to beat up on the woeful NFC West teams in addition to their division rival Panthers.  They failed to win a game against a team with a winning record until their week 17 victory over a Saints team that had nothing to play for.  This team still has a lot of good young talent, so I'm not expecting too much of a drop off, but a tougher schedule, and the fact that they still share a division with the Saints and Falcons, makes it hard to believe they'll be able to improve on last year's success.

12.  Indianapolis Colts
Last season: 10-6
Prediction this season: 9-7
The Colts are the most difficult team to predict thanks to questions surrounding the health of Peyton Manning.  He's still recovering from off-season neck surgery and at the moment it appears doubtful that he'll be ready to start the season.  How much time Manning may miss is the big question mark hanging over this team.  The Colts talked veteran Kerry Collins out of retirement to fill in if Manning is out of action, but that's still a pretty drastic downgrade.  How this team will play without the former MVP on the field is difficult to predict, because Manning has never missed a game in his career before.  If he were healthy to start the season then we could likely pencil this team in for double digit wins and another division title.  Without him, they probably aren't close to being a playoff team.  How many games Manning is able to suit up for will determine which end of that spectrum they finish up at.  Assuming he misses no more than a few games, the Colts will probably rally around his return and finish strong enough to stay in the hunt.  A slow start could cost them the division, but if Manning plays most of the season they should be in the mix for at least a Wild Card spot.

11.  Dallas Cowboys
Last season: 6-10
Prediction this season: 10-6
Last season's disaster included losing their starting QB for most of the season and firing their head coach mid-season.  Now Tony Romo is back on the field and the coaching situation should be more stable this season.  The offense is loaded with weapons, with Miles Austin and Dez Bryant each looking like either of them could become one of the game's top receivers.  Add in TE Jason Witten, always a favorite target of Romo's, and a potential breakout season for RB Felix Jones, and you have the makings of an explosive offense.  A lot was expected from them last season before injuries crippled them, but they'll have a chance to make up for it this year.  Expect them to flip last year's record around and be a winning team this year with a shot at getting back to the postseason.

10.   Houston Texans
Last season: 6-10
Prediction this season: 10-6
They seem to be the team that everyone expects to breakout every year and finally make the playoffs, but it never happens.  If they don't do it this year then people may start to give up on them, but there are too many reasons to believe in them this season.  For starters, the Manning injury makes the AFC South division wide open and the Texans seem to be the best equipped team in the division to take over should the Colts stumble.  Typically known as a dominant passing attack led by Matt Schuab and elite WR Andre Johnson, the Texans added a new dimension to their offense last year thanks to the unexpected breakout season by Arian Foster, who led the league in rushing last year.  They have enough weapons that nobody has ever questioned their offense.  It's the defense that has always held them back.  The secondary inparticular has been an issue, as they were the league's worst pass defense last year.  That should change this year, with additions like CB Jonathan Joseph to beef up their pass protection.  Former Dallas coach Wade Phillips comes in as their new defensive coordinator.  While he may have failed as a head coach, he has a strong history of success in this coordinator role.  He may not turn them into an elite defense overnight, but he's enough of a reason to expect enough of an improvement that this defense will no longer be a liability holding back their offense, which will still be relied on to carry the team.

9.  San Diego Chargers
Last season: 9-7
Prediction this season: 10-6
The Chargers inexplicably managed to miss the playoffs last year despite having the league's top ranked offense and defense.  The main reason for their struggles had to do with special teams, which was a disaster.  Those concerns will be partially negated by the new kick off rule, which is intended to limit the number of kick returns.  The Chargers may benefit more from this than anyone else.  They still have an elite QB in Philip Rivers, who should have a full season of Vincent Jackson to throw to this year, after the star receiver sat out during a lengthy hold out last season.  If Antonio Gates can stay healthier this year then this team has all the tools it needs to reclaim their division title.

8. New York Jets
Last season: 11-5
Prediction this season: 10-6
Having been big spenders in last year's uncapped season, the Jets were forced to make some difficult decisions this off-season, as they were unable to bring back everyone. Re-signing Santonio Holmes was a big move, but to do so they had to let go of Braylon Edwards. He's been replaced by Plaxico Burress, who spent the last two years in prison and is now 34 years old. Several other key contributors have also either moved on or retired, depriving the Jets of some of the depth that had made them so successful. With Antonio Cromartie back to pair with Darrelle Revis, they will still have one of the league's best pass defenses. If Mark Sanchez can take another step forward in his development then the Jets should find themselves back in the playoffs.

7.  Atlanta Falcons
Last season: 13-3
Prediction this season: 11-5
The Falcons were a very good team last year, but perhaps not quite as dominant as their record would indicate.  Point differential is considered a good indicator of future success.  While their +126 differential last year was still very good, it paled in comparison to the league leading +205 total from the 14 win Patriots, and also ranked far behind the 12 win Steelers (+143) and even the 10 win Packers (+148).  While it was still a good season, it shows they played in more close games than the other top teams.  Close games decided by 1 score or less can often go either way depending on a bad bounce here or there, so without a little luck their 13 win season could have just as easily been 10 or 11 wins.  They also sacrificed quite a bit to trade up to draft a rookie WR that is unlikely to perform at an elite level right away.  Still, Julio Jones is talented enough to make some impact, and the team already has an elite receiver in Roddy White that Jones should compliment well.  The Falcons have typically been known as more of a running team, but the added weapons to the passing game may signal a change to more of an aerial attack, as work horse back Michael Turner continues to get older and pile more mileage on his legs.

6.  Pittsburgh Steelers
Last season: 12-4
Prediction this season: 11-5
Since 2000, the team that has lost the Super Bowl has gone on to struggle the following season.  In 7 of those seasons since, the losing team failed to even make the playoffs the following season, with all but the 2008 Patriots finishing with a losing record that season.  The other Super Bowl losers in that time span (Seahawks, Cardinals, Colts) all had a decrease in wins the season following their Super Bowl loss and none of those teams made it passed the Divisional round of the playoffs that season.  If this Super Bowl "curse" is to be believed, the Steelers may be in trouble.  There are some reasons to think a drop off could happen.  Sticking with the subject of curses, research has shown that running backs that carry the ball more than 370 times in a season are due to regress the next season.  Counting the playoffs, Rashard Mendenhall had nearly 400 carries.  Will the "curse of 370" break down the running game they rely so heavily upon?  The Steelers may find it hard to repeat another 12 win season, especially in a tough division, but they have too much talent to completely fall apart.  They should have a full season of Ben Roethlisberger (assuming he can stay on the field and out of women's restrooms) and hopefully a healthier season from Troy Polamalu.  Expect the NFC North to come down to another dog fight between the Steelers and their rivals from Baltimore.

5.  Baltimore Ravens
Last season: 12-4
Prediction this season: 12-4
Baltimore's inability to get over the hump has always been due to struggles to get the better of the Steelers.  If ever there was a year for them to overtake their most bitter rival, it's while the Steelers are recovering from their Super Bowl hangover.  Their defense is getting older, but is still dangerous.  Joe Flacco seems right on the edge of being an elite QB.  Whether or not he can put together a strong season to cement his status in that class, or whether he takes a step back to being an inconsistent talent still unproven as a winner, will determine how far the Ravens will go.  Expect a monster season from Ray Rice.  He's already proven himself to be one of the league's most lethal rushers, in addition to one of the best pass catching threats out of the backfield.  He'll now get to run behind blocking full back Vontee Leech, the man who helped block for Arian Foster during his league leading campaign last year.  Rice has the talent and opportunity to lead the league this year, which only strengthens the Ravens case for winning their division.

4.  New Orleans Saints
Last season: 11-5
Prediction this season: 12-4
Drew Brees has always been known for his impressive accuracy, so it was a surprise to see so many of his passes picked off last year (22 - second worst in the league).  Expect that number to drop this year.  He'll be helped by a revamped running game, led by rookie Mark Ingram and a healthy Pierre Thomas.  Reggie Bush may be gone, but Darren Sproles was brought in to fill most of that void at a fraction of the price.  The defense didn't come up with quite as many big plays last year as they did in their Super Bowl season, but if they can bounce back to play somewhere in between then that should be plenty to carry them to the top of the division.

3.  Green Bay Packers
Last season: 10-6
Prediction this season: 12-4
People tend to forget, given that they went on to win the Super Bowl, but the Packers barely managed to sneak into the playoffs last season.  They needed wins in their last two regular season games just to get in as a Wild Card, but managed to get on a role at the right time and carried that momentum to a title.  That's not to say that the Packers aren't just an elite team, it's just to point out why the defending champs fall a bit short of the top of this list.  On the other hand, they still have that Aaron Rodgers guy, so I'm sure they'll still be pretty good.  They can also hope to expect healthier seasons from their running backs as well as the return of stud TE JerMichael Finley.  Even Rodgers couldn't manage to make it through all 16 games.  If they can get a little luckier in the health department then they have the talent to be an elite team once again.

2.  Philadelphia Eagles
Last season: 10-6
Prediction this season: 13-3
Michael Vick may be the most dynamic player in the game, but also the biggest wild card.  He's coming off a season where he had one of the best stastical years of any QB, despite only playing in 12 games.  He had several games, most notably a thrashing of the Redskins, where he dominated the opposition, single handedly taking over games to deliver a victory.  The problem is, he only played 12 games.  A full season of Vick makes the Eagles Super Bowl contenders, but there are few players that carry as much risk for injury, given his fearless (perhaps reckless) style of play.  His career season was helped in part by the receiving talent around him, which is much deeper and more talented than anything he had worked with before back in his days in Atlanta.  With explosive playmakers like DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy around him, Vick doesn't need to try to do it all on his own.  If he keeps that in mind, it might help keep him healthy and on the field more.  As important as it is to have Vick on the field more this year, the defensive upgrades will be just as important to the Eagle's chances to move up to the top of the conference.  They shocked the world by signing the biggest off-season prize, shut down corner Nnamdi Asomugha.  He joins two other Pro Bowl caliber corners in Asante Samuel and Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie (who also just joined the team from Arizona as part of the Kolb trade).  The trio gives them the deepest and most talented secondary in the league.  They have the ability to shut down both sides of the field and still have an elite corner to lock on to the opponents slot receiver.  Good luck finding much success passing against this defense.

1.  New England Patriots
Last season: 14-2
Prediction this season: 13-3
Go ahead, call it a homer pick, but keep in mind that the Patriots had the league's top record last season as well.  I realize they haven't won a playoff game since the depressing Super Bowl loss to the Giants deprived them of perfection, but these rankings are for the regular season.  Ok, so I also picked the Pats to beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl as well, so what?  Last I checked, they still have MVP Tom Brady as their QB and the genius that most people around the league consider to be one of the greatest coaches of all time.  So what's not to like?  They may have even improved themselves this year.  Their biggest flaw last season was an inability to rush the passer, which led to a league worst ranking on 3rd down plays for their defense.  So now they've revamped the defense, switching to a 4-3 base attack to better suit their new personnel, like Albert Haynseworth.  Say what you will about his attitude or his failures in Washington, but he was never a good fit for that system and was unhappy with his role.  Belichick seems intent not to make that same mistake.  He's a big risk, but he appears happy and motivated now that he's in New England, which could lead to him getting back to being the pass rushing force that once made him a star.  They also added Chad Ochocinco to add another threat to an already dangerous passing attack.  He may have lost a step from his prime years, but he's still one of the league's best route runners and has great hands.  While he's struggled so far to learn the playbook and get on the same page as Brady, the same things were once said about Randy Moss when he first joined the team.  We know how that turned out that season.  Perhaps it's wishful thinking, but I certainly won't bet against Brady and the Pats to finish at the top.