After an 82 game marathon, followed by three grueling rounds of postseason games, two teams are left standing in the end to square off on the biggest stage of the game - the NBA Finals.
This years Finals features a re-match from 2006, when the Miami Heat defeated the Dallas Mavericks in a controversial series. These two teams are much different now, with Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry being the only holdovers from that Mavs team. Meanwhile, the Heat have gone from a dynamic duo of Wade and Shaq to a trio of All-Stars by exchanging the Diesel for LeBron James and Chris Bosh. Despite the many differences these two franchises have gone through in the past 5 years, expect many comparisons to be made to their previous Finals match-up, as this Mavs franchise is still haunted by the title they let slip away.
Back in 2006, Dallas held a 2-0 lead to start the series, only to see Miami rally to win the next 4 games. While there is no excuse for losing 4 straight in the Finals, there were at least a couple of games in that stretch that will forever be questioned by Mavs fans due to the controversial officiating. Dwayne Wade cruised to a Finals MVP trophy that year thanks to a record setting amount of free throw attempts. Even un-biased basketball fans were puzzled by how one sided the calls seemed at times, so you can imagine how fans in Dallas must have felt. Let's just say that Bennette Salvatore better not get the assignment of officiating a game in Dallas for this series.
Enough about the past, let's get back to the present. These two current teams could not be any more different. The obvious distinction being that Dallas is a team with one super star surrounded by a few good role players, while Miami is a team with three super stars surrounded by... let's just say, a less than stellar supporting cast. Their differences may be even more extreme in how their respective stars carry themselves. Take for example the ending of the final game of the Mavs series against the Thunder, where instead of celebrating wildly on the court, Dirk snuck quietly back to the locker room. His post game comments made it clear that he knew from having been in this position before that the team hadn't won anything yet and he was already focused on the next series. The time for celebrating will have to wait until after their ultimate goal has been achieved. The Heat on the other hand are the opposite. They had a championship parade to celebrate before the season even started.
The Mavs have surpassed the expectations of even their most optimistic supporters already (ok, maybe not Mark Cuban's) and there may not be a more dominating offensive threat in this postseason than Dirk. So far no other team in the playoffs has had an answer for the 7 foot German's jump shot, and there does not seem to be an obvious stopper on the Miami roster. Trying to contain Dirk will be the top priority for the Heat, but it won't be easy.
The problem for Dallas is how they will adjust if Dirk has an off game. He has carried them through most games this season, but even the brightest stars in the game can hit a shooting slump at times. If Dirk has any trouble finding his stroke, do the Mavs have enough offensive firepower around him to pick up the slack? Perhaps Terry or Peja could get hot from deep, as they did earlier to close out the Lakers, but neither can create their own shot and rely heavily on being open because of the attention Dirk demands from the opposing defense. Shawn Marion has provided some vintage performances of late, leading the team offensively in a few of their victories, but he's no longer the All-Star caliber player he was in his prime in Phoenix. Jason Kidd is no longer an elite point guard, and while he has shown he still has some left in the tank and is capable of running the offense, he's not a scorer. In fact, he was one of the worst players in the league in terms of scoring on a per minute basis. While he can hit a wide open three now and then, he can't be counted on for much scoring (even with Mike Bibby guarding him). So the Mavs have some nice role players capable of chipping in, but it has to be Dirk that carries the load, particularly in crunch time.
The Heat on the other hand don't have that problem because they have multiple players that can carry the load. LeBron James and Dwayne Wade tend to take turns carrying it anyway, so if either of them has an off night then the other will just need to step up their game to pick up the slack. They also have the luxury of turning to Chris Bosh to carry the team for stretches as well.
Dallas doesn't have the depth of wing defenders to contain Miami's stars. If Marion guards LeBron then how do they stop Wade? DeShawn Stevenson did a serviceable job of it in the regular season, but he doesn't play heavy minutes despite being the starter. Once Jason Terry checks in, that's when Wade will start to go off, because Dallas doesn't have anyone else in their backcourt that can stay with him. The Mavs face the dilemma of whether or not to take away minutes from Terry and JJ Barrea in favor of Stevenson to sacrifice offense for defense. Those two are too important to the offense, especially when Dirk is resting on the bench. The Mavs lead all teams in the playoffs in offensive efficiency, with their numbers jumping dramatically when Terry or Barrea are in the game.
Dallas plays more zone defense than any team in the league, so expect them to use that approach a lot to mask some of their defensive deficiencies. This will make it more difficult for LeBron and Wade to find lanes to get to the basket and also allow their big men to double team in the paint, as they won't need to pay much attention to Joel Anthony when he's in the game. They will attempt to force LeBron and Wade to settle for jump shots, which they hope they can't possibly continue to hit at the scorching pace they've been on lately. A zone defense will put more emphasis on the importance of shooters like Bibby, Miller and Chalmers to step up and hit big shots when they get open, something that none of them have done with much consistency thus far.
The Mavericks will look to avenge the loss in their last Finals appearance, but Miami may be too much of a force to contend with. Most people have picked against Dallas since the postseason started and been proven wrong along the way, so it may be unwise to pick against them now. However, if any team has been hotter than Dallas lately it's Miami. They have yet to lose at home in the playoffs this year and they hold home court advantage in this series. Because of the 2-3-2 format of the Finals, Dallas almost has to steal one of the first two games in Miami to have a chance, because if they can't finish them off in Dallas then they will have to head back to win at least one more in Miami. Teams with home court advantage in the Finals are 20-6 since the league moved to the 2-3-2 format and have won 10 of the last 12 meetings. Dallas may be good enough to end the home winning streak for the Heat, but it's hard to see them winning more than once in Miami.
There is a lot on the line in this series for both teams. The Mavs have never won a title and are desperate to make up for their past failures, but for them the pressure falls primarily on Dirk. He may already be the best European player to ever come over to the NBA, but winning a title may put him in the conversation of being one of the best power forwards of all time and perhaps even put him in the top 25 overall. Without a ring though he may be destined to fall just short of that group, as it would be harder to put him ahead of other stars without rings such as Karl Malone and Charles Barkley. He needs to lead his team to a Championship to push himself above that level and this may be his last shot to do it.
As for the Heat, they have been under pressure to win a title since the moment LeBron decided to take his talents to South Beach. Anything less than a title will be perceived as failure. While the entire team has come under scrutiny all season, it's LeBron that finds himself cast under the brightest light. Winning a title will justify his decision to leave Cleveland. It will silence the naysayers and those that vilified him for his actions. Most importantly, it will alter how he will inevitably be viewed historically, as there are many that would refuse to believe he can be an all time great without having won a title. People may not agree with how he went about getting a ring, but if he gets one then years from now that will be all that matters. There are some that think that this may be the start of a dynasty, but they have to win one first. I think this is the year LeBron finally gets to that next level. So begins a new era in the NBA - for better or for worse.
Prediction: Heat in 6
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Saturday, May 28, 2011
NBA Playoffs - Conference Finals
We're down to the final four teams battling it out for a Conference Championship that will grant them access to the big stage that all teams aspire to perform on - the NBA Finals. Each series provides us with a match between a veteran group that has been there before against a young up and coming force. Will youth win out over experience?
Dallas Mavericks defeat Oklahoma City Thunder
Experience wins out in the West, as Dallas continues their scorching streak through the postseason. After dismissing the crumbling Lakers in a 4 game sweep, the young, athletic Thunder team prevented a different kind of challenge for the Mavs. The veteran savvy and experience of the Mavs proved to be up to that challenge.
The biggest factor in the Mavs favor for this series was the dominant play of Dirk Nowitzki, whose 48 point outburst in Game 1 made Durant's 40 point effort look like a footnote in the game. Dirk put on a shooting clinic in this game, making it seem at times like it was impossible for him to miss on his way to a 12-15 night from the field. He also set an NBA record for most consecutive free throws in a game without a miss, by hitting all 24 attempts from the charity stripe.
You can argue that no player has been as dominant as Dirk has in this postseason. Even though his Game 5 performance may have made him look somewhat mortal (26 points), it was his 3 point dagger with just over a minute left in the game that gave the Mavs the lead, while his 2 free throws would later ice the game that clinched the series for Dallas.
Give credit as well to the supporting cast of the Mavs, particularly Shawn Marion, who has looked as good lately as he was at his peak in Phoenix. He actually led the team in scoring in two of their victories in this series, while also providing great defense against Durant.
The Thunder have been a great story in this postseason and clearly are a team on the rise that will be contenders for a long time. Yet this series showed that they just aren't ready for the next level yet. As I said before the series, it's incredibly difficult for a team to make the jump from first round fodder to NBA Finals in one season. That's especially true for a young team like the Thunder, but because of their youth you can count on them being contenders again. Often times young teams need to have some playoff heartache before they can taste victory.
Some of their struggles came down to immaturity and inexperience - two common traits among young teams. Russell Westbrook is one of the brightest young point guards in the league, but he's often been criticized this postseason for his shot selection and for being unable to get the ball in the hands of Durant more often. He saw some more of that in this series, and it nearly boiled over in Game 2 when Westbrook was benched for the 4th quarter in favor of Eric Maynor in the one game the Thunder actually one in this series. In fairness, all the Thunder starters sat on the pine down the stretch, except for Durant, as coach Scott Brooks stuck with a lineup that got hot and was working. The lineup was working too well to risk blowing it by making a change, so he stuck with them and it worked. However, we also saw how upset Westbrook was as he sulked to the bench after being taken out of the game following an ill advised turnover. After the game Westbrook said all the right things and claimed not to be upset about the coach's decision, but his body language said otherwise during the game. Winning can be a cure for many things though, so I'm sure Westbrook was just happy his team got the win and the team can move on from this mini-controversy.
Turnovers were also an issue that plagued the Thunder, particularly in Game 4 when Durant and Westrbrook combined for an inexcusable 15 turnovers. Both players played great for the most part in this series, but it was those miscues that led to the Thunder letting 4th quarter leads slip away in the final two games of the series. You may have heard, you can't spell choke without OKC. As unfair as it may be to criticize a young inexperienced team for failing to execute late in games, it's hard to overlook how their late game collapses cost them this series. The young Thunder team needs to use this as a valuable lesson, which will help them in the future. With a core of players still in their early 20's, the future is still bright in OKC.
As for the Mavs, they return to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2006, when they coincidentally lost to the Miami Heat. They will hope for a better result in their re-match this year (and hope to avoid a game officiated by Bennett Salvatore), as they attempt to capture the championship that has eluded them for so long.
Miami Heat defeat Chicago Bulls
The following night another young team coughed up a late fourth quarter lead to end a series. This time it was the Miami Heat going on a blistering 18-3 run to wipe out a 12 point deficit down the stretch to clinch the series in Game 5. Having been held to modest totals to that point, LeBron James and Dwayne Wade each scored 8 points during this run, knocking down several clutch jump shots. The Bulls defense forced the two super stars to settle for outside shots, typically the ideal game plan against the Heat, but if either of them gets hot and actually starts making the majority of those shots then they become very difficult to defend. If both of them have the hot hand then it's virtually impossible to stop them.
LeBron was a force throughout the series, yet those final minutes of Game 5 aside, Wade struggled against the tough Chicago defense. While he wasn't shut down in any game, he did not deliver the type of stand out performance that he typically produces at least once per series. His overall performance for the series seemed as mediocre as his below average shooting percentage would suggest. Throughout most of the series he failed to put his stamp on the game, but he saved his best for last, helping James clinch the series.
As for the third member of their All-Star trio, Chris Bosh had perhaps his best playoff series in his career. He responded to some criticism to start the series about him being too soft to play against this Bulls team by abusing Carlos Boozer for 30 points in Game 1, setting a trend that would continue later in the series.
Meanwhile, regular season MVP Derrick Rose struggled in this series, particularly in the final two games. As the only real offensive threat on his team, he of course still managed to post decent numbers, but he failed to bring his game to another level that they needed to get passed the Heat. Poor shooting and mounting turnovers from their star doomed the Bulls down the stretch.
While Rose may have been the most valuable player during the regular season, this series was an example that he is still a step behind LeBron and Wade in the conversation of best player in the league. LeBron in particular has answered several of the questions that have plagued him regarding his ability to finish in clutch moments. Now all he needs is a ring to validate his standing as not only the best in the league, but one of the all time greats.
Dallas Mavericks defeat Oklahoma City Thunder
Experience wins out in the West, as Dallas continues their scorching streak through the postseason. After dismissing the crumbling Lakers in a 4 game sweep, the young, athletic Thunder team prevented a different kind of challenge for the Mavs. The veteran savvy and experience of the Mavs proved to be up to that challenge.
The biggest factor in the Mavs favor for this series was the dominant play of Dirk Nowitzki, whose 48 point outburst in Game 1 made Durant's 40 point effort look like a footnote in the game. Dirk put on a shooting clinic in this game, making it seem at times like it was impossible for him to miss on his way to a 12-15 night from the field. He also set an NBA record for most consecutive free throws in a game without a miss, by hitting all 24 attempts from the charity stripe.
You can argue that no player has been as dominant as Dirk has in this postseason. Even though his Game 5 performance may have made him look somewhat mortal (26 points), it was his 3 point dagger with just over a minute left in the game that gave the Mavs the lead, while his 2 free throws would later ice the game that clinched the series for Dallas.
Give credit as well to the supporting cast of the Mavs, particularly Shawn Marion, who has looked as good lately as he was at his peak in Phoenix. He actually led the team in scoring in two of their victories in this series, while also providing great defense against Durant.
The Thunder have been a great story in this postseason and clearly are a team on the rise that will be contenders for a long time. Yet this series showed that they just aren't ready for the next level yet. As I said before the series, it's incredibly difficult for a team to make the jump from first round fodder to NBA Finals in one season. That's especially true for a young team like the Thunder, but because of their youth you can count on them being contenders again. Often times young teams need to have some playoff heartache before they can taste victory.
Some of their struggles came down to immaturity and inexperience - two common traits among young teams. Russell Westbrook is one of the brightest young point guards in the league, but he's often been criticized this postseason for his shot selection and for being unable to get the ball in the hands of Durant more often. He saw some more of that in this series, and it nearly boiled over in Game 2 when Westbrook was benched for the 4th quarter in favor of Eric Maynor in the one game the Thunder actually one in this series. In fairness, all the Thunder starters sat on the pine down the stretch, except for Durant, as coach Scott Brooks stuck with a lineup that got hot and was working. The lineup was working too well to risk blowing it by making a change, so he stuck with them and it worked. However, we also saw how upset Westbrook was as he sulked to the bench after being taken out of the game following an ill advised turnover. After the game Westbrook said all the right things and claimed not to be upset about the coach's decision, but his body language said otherwise during the game. Winning can be a cure for many things though, so I'm sure Westbrook was just happy his team got the win and the team can move on from this mini-controversy.
Turnovers were also an issue that plagued the Thunder, particularly in Game 4 when Durant and Westrbrook combined for an inexcusable 15 turnovers. Both players played great for the most part in this series, but it was those miscues that led to the Thunder letting 4th quarter leads slip away in the final two games of the series. You may have heard, you can't spell choke without OKC. As unfair as it may be to criticize a young inexperienced team for failing to execute late in games, it's hard to overlook how their late game collapses cost them this series. The young Thunder team needs to use this as a valuable lesson, which will help them in the future. With a core of players still in their early 20's, the future is still bright in OKC.
As for the Mavs, they return to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2006, when they coincidentally lost to the Miami Heat. They will hope for a better result in their re-match this year (and hope to avoid a game officiated by Bennett Salvatore), as they attempt to capture the championship that has eluded them for so long.
Miami Heat defeat Chicago Bulls
The following night another young team coughed up a late fourth quarter lead to end a series. This time it was the Miami Heat going on a blistering 18-3 run to wipe out a 12 point deficit down the stretch to clinch the series in Game 5. Having been held to modest totals to that point, LeBron James and Dwayne Wade each scored 8 points during this run, knocking down several clutch jump shots. The Bulls defense forced the two super stars to settle for outside shots, typically the ideal game plan against the Heat, but if either of them gets hot and actually starts making the majority of those shots then they become very difficult to defend. If both of them have the hot hand then it's virtually impossible to stop them.
LeBron was a force throughout the series, yet those final minutes of Game 5 aside, Wade struggled against the tough Chicago defense. While he wasn't shut down in any game, he did not deliver the type of stand out performance that he typically produces at least once per series. His overall performance for the series seemed as mediocre as his below average shooting percentage would suggest. Throughout most of the series he failed to put his stamp on the game, but he saved his best for last, helping James clinch the series.
As for the third member of their All-Star trio, Chris Bosh had perhaps his best playoff series in his career. He responded to some criticism to start the series about him being too soft to play against this Bulls team by abusing Carlos Boozer for 30 points in Game 1, setting a trend that would continue later in the series.
Meanwhile, regular season MVP Derrick Rose struggled in this series, particularly in the final two games. As the only real offensive threat on his team, he of course still managed to post decent numbers, but he failed to bring his game to another level that they needed to get passed the Heat. Poor shooting and mounting turnovers from their star doomed the Bulls down the stretch.
While Rose may have been the most valuable player during the regular season, this series was an example that he is still a step behind LeBron and Wade in the conversation of best player in the league. LeBron in particular has answered several of the questions that have plagued him regarding his ability to finish in clutch moments. Now all he needs is a ring to validate his standing as not only the best in the league, but one of the all time greats.
Thursday, May 19, 2011
Red Sox Rolling
The weather in Boston has been dreadful this week. This entire homestand for the Red Sox has been played through a hazy fog with sporadic showers. Well, at least when they get to play anyway, as Tuesday's game was postponed due to rain. This of course was the game I was supposed to go to, with tickets atop the famed Green Monster at Fenway Park, but Mother Nature had other plans that night. While the weather washed out my chance to see a game that night, it's done nothing to halt the momentum of a suddenly surging Sox team.
After Boston fell to a league worst 2-10 record to start the season there were many who figured the season was over already. Yet here we are a month later and the team finds itself right back in the race in a highly competitive AL East. With wins in 8 of their last 10 games, including a current 5 game win streak, the Red Sox have climbed up from the cellar to a respectable 3rd place in a tight division. Sitting only 2 games behind Tampa for the division lead and 1 game behind the Yankees, it's clear that this race is far from over despite how poorly it started.
The first signs of a turnaround came in mid-April when the team went on a streak of winning 8 of 9 games where their starting pitchers surrendered two runs or less in each game. The streak appeared to get the Sox back on track, especially their pitching staff, which had raised a few red flags early on. They hit another small speed bump to close out the month, but have come back strong in May, with a record of 11-5 so far this month.
The offense, which was supposed to be the strength of the team, struggled with inconsistency to start the season. Things are starting to look up for this line-up lately, and it all starts at the top of the order with Jacoby Ellsbury. The speedy outfield struggled to stay above the Mendoza line for much of April, but a blistering May has him flirting with the .300 mark. After his early season struggles dropped him to the bottom of the order, he's now back in his rightful spot at the top.
The prized trade acquisition of the off-season, Adrian Gonzalez, has been every bit as advertised so far. He's hit well all year, but his power took some time to come around. Once the calender flipped to May, his power switch flipped on too. He currently is tied for the league lead in Extra Base Hits and RBIs, making him one of the league's most feared hitters. Once Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis shake off the rust from last year's injury shortened seasons and hit like they are capable of, it will only make Gonzalez that much better and this line-up even more dangerous.
Meanwhile, while a strong month has helped the Sox climb back towards the top of the division, they've also been aided by the recent funk of the Yankees. Boston's recent win streak began over the weekend with a 3 game sweep on the road against the Yankees. The sweep may have been just what this team needed to give them a spark, while it also helped contribute to their biggest rival spiraling further into turmoil. While the Sox had plenty to complain about early in the season, it's the Yankees who now are littered with issues to worry about. Derek Jeter isn't hitting, and the shadow of the inevitable conversation of moving him down in the order looms over their clubhouse like a dark storm cloud. A-Rod's hip is hurting, halting his torrid start. Now they are dealing with the drama caused by Jorge Posada's ill-timed decision to refuse to play during the Boston series because he was upset about being dropped to 9th in the order (Jorge, have you looked at that miserable batting average lately? You should be begging to hit lower in the order!). There were rumors of the long time Yankee being suspended, or even released, stirring a huge controversy in New York. There is still too much talent on their team to discount them already, but these issues may be a foreshadowing of more pressing issues that lay ahead for a team that is getting too old, too fast.
Let's not forget about those Tampa Bay Rays, who currently lead the division. Like the Sox, they got off to a terrible start, but have since rebounded. The loss of their star third baseman contributed to their slow start, but since Evan Longoria has returned from injury the team has been playing great. They have a deep pitching staff, led by David Price and James Shields, that should keep them in contention all season. Yet you get the feeling that some of what they are doing is with smoke and mirrors. They lost a lot of talent to free agency this off-season and have replaced them mostly with young players and cast offs. They are still a very good team, but with the talent level leaning heavily in Boston's direction, the Sox should be able to overtake them over the course of a long season.
As I stare out the window at grey skies and falling rain, I'm reminded that all teams go through stretches where they struggle and the outlook appears gloomy. For Boston, that stretch just happened to start the season. The season is a marathon, not a sprint. While it's not often that you can trip and fall at the start of the race but recover to be the first to cross the finish line, this Red Sox team has the talent to make up for their slow start. After all, they've already done the hard part just by getting back into the race. Hopefully there will be less storm clouds and more sunny skies ahead.
After Boston fell to a league worst 2-10 record to start the season there were many who figured the season was over already. Yet here we are a month later and the team finds itself right back in the race in a highly competitive AL East. With wins in 8 of their last 10 games, including a current 5 game win streak, the Red Sox have climbed up from the cellar to a respectable 3rd place in a tight division. Sitting only 2 games behind Tampa for the division lead and 1 game behind the Yankees, it's clear that this race is far from over despite how poorly it started.
The first signs of a turnaround came in mid-April when the team went on a streak of winning 8 of 9 games where their starting pitchers surrendered two runs or less in each game. The streak appeared to get the Sox back on track, especially their pitching staff, which had raised a few red flags early on. They hit another small speed bump to close out the month, but have come back strong in May, with a record of 11-5 so far this month.
The offense, which was supposed to be the strength of the team, struggled with inconsistency to start the season. Things are starting to look up for this line-up lately, and it all starts at the top of the order with Jacoby Ellsbury. The speedy outfield struggled to stay above the Mendoza line for much of April, but a blistering May has him flirting with the .300 mark. After his early season struggles dropped him to the bottom of the order, he's now back in his rightful spot at the top.
The prized trade acquisition of the off-season, Adrian Gonzalez, has been every bit as advertised so far. He's hit well all year, but his power took some time to come around. Once the calender flipped to May, his power switch flipped on too. He currently is tied for the league lead in Extra Base Hits and RBIs, making him one of the league's most feared hitters. Once Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis shake off the rust from last year's injury shortened seasons and hit like they are capable of, it will only make Gonzalez that much better and this line-up even more dangerous.
Meanwhile, while a strong month has helped the Sox climb back towards the top of the division, they've also been aided by the recent funk of the Yankees. Boston's recent win streak began over the weekend with a 3 game sweep on the road against the Yankees. The sweep may have been just what this team needed to give them a spark, while it also helped contribute to their biggest rival spiraling further into turmoil. While the Sox had plenty to complain about early in the season, it's the Yankees who now are littered with issues to worry about. Derek Jeter isn't hitting, and the shadow of the inevitable conversation of moving him down in the order looms over their clubhouse like a dark storm cloud. A-Rod's hip is hurting, halting his torrid start. Now they are dealing with the drama caused by Jorge Posada's ill-timed decision to refuse to play during the Boston series because he was upset about being dropped to 9th in the order (Jorge, have you looked at that miserable batting average lately? You should be begging to hit lower in the order!). There were rumors of the long time Yankee being suspended, or even released, stirring a huge controversy in New York. There is still too much talent on their team to discount them already, but these issues may be a foreshadowing of more pressing issues that lay ahead for a team that is getting too old, too fast.
Let's not forget about those Tampa Bay Rays, who currently lead the division. Like the Sox, they got off to a terrible start, but have since rebounded. The loss of their star third baseman contributed to their slow start, but since Evan Longoria has returned from injury the team has been playing great. They have a deep pitching staff, led by David Price and James Shields, that should keep them in contention all season. Yet you get the feeling that some of what they are doing is with smoke and mirrors. They lost a lot of talent to free agency this off-season and have replaced them mostly with young players and cast offs. They are still a very good team, but with the talent level leaning heavily in Boston's direction, the Sox should be able to overtake them over the course of a long season.
As I stare out the window at grey skies and falling rain, I'm reminded that all teams go through stretches where they struggle and the outlook appears gloomy. For Boston, that stretch just happened to start the season. The season is a marathon, not a sprint. While it's not often that you can trip and fall at the start of the race but recover to be the first to cross the finish line, this Red Sox team has the talent to make up for their slow start. After all, they've already done the hard part just by getting back into the race. Hopefully there will be less storm clouds and more sunny skies ahead.
Monday, May 16, 2011
NBA Playoffs: Conference Finals
The final four teams remaining clash for the rights to represent their conference in the Finals. Some familiar faces have already fallen, while some new blood has begun to climb towards the group of elite teams in the league.
Chicago Bulls vs Miami Heat
This years MVP leads his team against a trio of super stars that includes the man who won the previous two MVP awards. Chicago will try to match up against the star power of the Heat with their superior depth.
Chicago swept the regular season series against the Heat, but the victories were by a total of only 8 points in the three games, and Lebron James missed the first meeting due to an injury. So all we can really take from those meetings is that these teams are fairly evenly matched. Rose had the best year of any player in the league, but James and Wade were right behind him, while Chris Bosh is easily the next best player in the series at a notch below their level.
Miami has struggled in the past against Chicago's defense. Not only in their three regular season meetings, but Miami has had well documented struggles against Boston, whose defense was orchestrated by the new Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau. While Miami finally cleared the hurdle of the Celtics, they did so against a banged up unit that was far from it's best. Yet Miami still only averaged 95 points per game in the series, only once breaking the 100 point barrier, so their victory isn't an indication that they've solved the complicated defensive schemes. The defensive strategy of loading up on the strong side to keep LeBron and Wade out of the lane and force them into taking contested jumpshots backfired only because both stars were able to hit those long jumpers at an unsustainable rate. The Bulls were the top defensive squad in the league and come into this series much healthier than Boston was. This will prove to be a much more difficult task for Miami.
A cause for concern for Chicago is one carried over from their previous series, where Carlos Boozer struggled with a painful turf toe injury. He finished the final game against Atlanta strong, but he needs to play consistently well in this series to help Chicago advance. He is bigger and stronger than Bosh, so if he's healthy he should be able to dominate their match-up in the paint and on the boards. He may have trouble roaming out to contest Bosh's mid-range shot, but he has to prevent him from getting easy shots inside while helping Noah keep the Heat off the glass.
It will be interesting to see who Miami has guarding Rose in this series. Regular starter Mike Bibby will most certainly get toasted by Rose on every trip. He will need a lot of help from his teammates when he's in the game. They could use Wade to check Rose at times while letting Bibby cover the offensively deficient Ronnie Brewer, but would they really want Wade using so much energy chasing the speedy Rose around all series? Probably not, at least not for long stretches. It may mean more minutes for Mario Chalmers, who at least has a better chance at keeping up with Rose than Bibby does.
The teams are an even match, with Chicago being a bit better on the defensive end, while also lacking the explosive firepower that the Heat have on offense with their three stars. Rose can only do so much on his own, and while he may end up being the best player in the series, he can't cancel out Miami Trice on his own. His teammates will have to step up to help, but with Miami's stars unlikely to spend much time on the bench this series it will lesson the impact of Chicago's superior 2nd unit.
Miami hasn't been this far in the postseason since 2006 when Wade teamed with Shaq to win the title, but that ring gives Wade more postseason experience than anyone in a Bulls uniform. LeBron's postseason failures are no secret, but at least he's been to the Finals before. This Bulls squad has never made it out of the first round as a team before, and Boozer is the only key player in their rotation that has. While the Bulls may be the better team, it's incredibly difficult for a young team to make the jump from being a first round exit to making the Finals. Experience matters in this league, and Miami has the edge there.
Miami in 6
Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder are coming off a draining 7 game series that included a total of 4 overtime periods, while Dallas cruised through a 4 game sweep that earned them over a week off before the start of this series. While the time off could make the Mavs rusty to open the series, the rust factor isn't as big an issue for a veteran team. The time to rest up will likely be more beneficial to the older veteran team.
Dirk Nowitzki is having one of the best postseaons of anyone this year, and that should not be expected to change in this series. The imposing front court of Perkins and Ibaka will keep Dirk out of the paint, but he can hit jump shots all day. Ibaka's athleticism makes him a shot blocking force in the post, but Dirk's flawless shot has such as high release point that Ibaka has no chance of stopping it.
Part of what helped keep Memphis alive for so long in the last series was the pressure brought on Kevin Durant by the hounding defense of Tony Allen. The Mavs don't have a defensive stopper of that caliber, but Shawn Marion is the long, athletic type that should be able to bother Durant. If he helps keep the ball out of Durant's hands then it may encourage Westbrook to continue his trend of taking more shots, which could be to the detriment of the team.
That's not to suggest that Westbrook should not look for his own shot at times though, as his matchup with an aging Jason Kidd appears to be a mismatch worth exposing. He has the speed to get around Kidd, so his gameplan should be to drive to the basket whenever possible to either coast for an easy layup or dish the ball to an open teammate when the defense collapses to try to help.
Dallas won 2 out of the 3 regular season meetings, with the road team winning each contest. This may bode well for OKC, who is without home court advantage in this series, but I would not expect that trend to continue for the entire series. It's just worth noting that each team knows they are capable of winning on the road against their opponent. Nonetheless, the experience of Dallas will likely carry them through to the Finals. It'd feel a bit hypocritical in picking OKC (no matter how much I'd like to) after having just stated about the Bulls that a young team will struggle to make the jump from the first round to the Finals. While I believe OKC has a better chance of doing that, despite it's youth, I think they may still be a year away from a Finals appearance.
Dallas in 7
Chicago Bulls vs Miami Heat
This years MVP leads his team against a trio of super stars that includes the man who won the previous two MVP awards. Chicago will try to match up against the star power of the Heat with their superior depth.
Chicago swept the regular season series against the Heat, but the victories were by a total of only 8 points in the three games, and Lebron James missed the first meeting due to an injury. So all we can really take from those meetings is that these teams are fairly evenly matched. Rose had the best year of any player in the league, but James and Wade were right behind him, while Chris Bosh is easily the next best player in the series at a notch below their level.
Miami has struggled in the past against Chicago's defense. Not only in their three regular season meetings, but Miami has had well documented struggles against Boston, whose defense was orchestrated by the new Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau. While Miami finally cleared the hurdle of the Celtics, they did so against a banged up unit that was far from it's best. Yet Miami still only averaged 95 points per game in the series, only once breaking the 100 point barrier, so their victory isn't an indication that they've solved the complicated defensive schemes. The defensive strategy of loading up on the strong side to keep LeBron and Wade out of the lane and force them into taking contested jumpshots backfired only because both stars were able to hit those long jumpers at an unsustainable rate. The Bulls were the top defensive squad in the league and come into this series much healthier than Boston was. This will prove to be a much more difficult task for Miami.
A cause for concern for Chicago is one carried over from their previous series, where Carlos Boozer struggled with a painful turf toe injury. He finished the final game against Atlanta strong, but he needs to play consistently well in this series to help Chicago advance. He is bigger and stronger than Bosh, so if he's healthy he should be able to dominate their match-up in the paint and on the boards. He may have trouble roaming out to contest Bosh's mid-range shot, but he has to prevent him from getting easy shots inside while helping Noah keep the Heat off the glass.
It will be interesting to see who Miami has guarding Rose in this series. Regular starter Mike Bibby will most certainly get toasted by Rose on every trip. He will need a lot of help from his teammates when he's in the game. They could use Wade to check Rose at times while letting Bibby cover the offensively deficient Ronnie Brewer, but would they really want Wade using so much energy chasing the speedy Rose around all series? Probably not, at least not for long stretches. It may mean more minutes for Mario Chalmers, who at least has a better chance at keeping up with Rose than Bibby does.
The teams are an even match, with Chicago being a bit better on the defensive end, while also lacking the explosive firepower that the Heat have on offense with their three stars. Rose can only do so much on his own, and while he may end up being the best player in the series, he can't cancel out Miami Trice on his own. His teammates will have to step up to help, but with Miami's stars unlikely to spend much time on the bench this series it will lesson the impact of Chicago's superior 2nd unit.
Miami hasn't been this far in the postseason since 2006 when Wade teamed with Shaq to win the title, but that ring gives Wade more postseason experience than anyone in a Bulls uniform. LeBron's postseason failures are no secret, but at least he's been to the Finals before. This Bulls squad has never made it out of the first round as a team before, and Boozer is the only key player in their rotation that has. While the Bulls may be the better team, it's incredibly difficult for a young team to make the jump from being a first round exit to making the Finals. Experience matters in this league, and Miami has the edge there.
Miami in 6
Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder are coming off a draining 7 game series that included a total of 4 overtime periods, while Dallas cruised through a 4 game sweep that earned them over a week off before the start of this series. While the time off could make the Mavs rusty to open the series, the rust factor isn't as big an issue for a veteran team. The time to rest up will likely be more beneficial to the older veteran team.
Dirk Nowitzki is having one of the best postseaons of anyone this year, and that should not be expected to change in this series. The imposing front court of Perkins and Ibaka will keep Dirk out of the paint, but he can hit jump shots all day. Ibaka's athleticism makes him a shot blocking force in the post, but Dirk's flawless shot has such as high release point that Ibaka has no chance of stopping it.
Part of what helped keep Memphis alive for so long in the last series was the pressure brought on Kevin Durant by the hounding defense of Tony Allen. The Mavs don't have a defensive stopper of that caliber, but Shawn Marion is the long, athletic type that should be able to bother Durant. If he helps keep the ball out of Durant's hands then it may encourage Westbrook to continue his trend of taking more shots, which could be to the detriment of the team.
That's not to suggest that Westbrook should not look for his own shot at times though, as his matchup with an aging Jason Kidd appears to be a mismatch worth exposing. He has the speed to get around Kidd, so his gameplan should be to drive to the basket whenever possible to either coast for an easy layup or dish the ball to an open teammate when the defense collapses to try to help.
Dallas won 2 out of the 3 regular season meetings, with the road team winning each contest. This may bode well for OKC, who is without home court advantage in this series, but I would not expect that trend to continue for the entire series. It's just worth noting that each team knows they are capable of winning on the road against their opponent. Nonetheless, the experience of Dallas will likely carry them through to the Finals. It'd feel a bit hypocritical in picking OKC (no matter how much I'd like to) after having just stated about the Bulls that a young team will struggle to make the jump from the first round to the Finals. While I believe OKC has a better chance of doing that, despite it's youth, I think they may still be a year away from a Finals appearance.
Dallas in 7
Sunday, May 15, 2011
NBA Playoffs: Round 2 Recap
The NBA playoffs continued in round 2, as the two teams from last year's Finals were eliminated. As the older veteran teams continue to fall, new up and coming teams continue to shine.
Dallas Mavericks defeat LA Lakers
I expected this to be a hard fought series, with the potential to go a full 7 games. Instead, it ended in a 4 game sweep, but not by the team many would have expected to cruise through this series. It was the defending champion Lakers that fell to the team with a long history of postseason collapses, the Dallas Mavericks.
When the series started it appeared that we'd be treated to a thrilling series, highlighted by the two super stars that somehow had never faced each other in the postseason. Dirk led the Mavs to a narrow 2 point victory in Game 1, defeating Kobe's Lakers on their own court. What should have been a back and forth battle all series long ended up being the unraveling of the Lakers dynasty. Instead of competing for their 3rd straight title (and 6th overall for the tandem of Kobe and Phil Jackson), the Lakers will be headed for an early summer vacation with a lot of questions about their future. Phil Jackson is likely to retire, which depending on his replacement could result in drastic changes that may take time to adjust to. As Kobe Bryant nears the end of his storied career, he may not have the time to spare. Kobe's reluctance to go anywhere near the paint and settle for jump shots all series long is a sign that the window is closing for him.
When a champion falls, they fall hard. A 4 game sweep is bad enough, but a near 40 point blow out loss to end the series is just embarrassing. To top it off, a couple of players, notably Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum, showed a total lack of class and sportsmanship by getting themselves ejected at the end of the game. Bynum in particular was a disgrace. When Mavs guard JJ Barrea coasted down the lane for a layup, Bynum checked the defenseless Barrea in mid-air, causing the much smaller player to go crashing hard to the floor. Luckily Barrea was ok, but there's no way you can view that play without classifying Bynum's attack as a dirty cheap shot and a blatant attempt to injure another player. There is no place for that sort of play in the NBA and Bynum and the Lakers should be ashamed of themselves. Bynum will be suspended for the first 5 games next season, in addition to a heavy fine, and he's lucky the penalty wasn't steeper than that.
Let's not make this series all about the collapse of the Lakers. As Kobe admitted, the credit goes to the Mavs, who may be the hottest team in the league right now while performing well above the expectations of most of us who thought Dallas would struggle just to make it out of the first round. They are getting production from a variety of sources, especially from their bench, which combined for 86 points in Game 4, matching the total of the entire Lakers team in the game. Jason Terry tied an NBA playoff record by hitting 9 three pointers in the game. He combined with Peja Stojakovic to hit 15 out of 16 shots from beyond the arc, leading the way for the team, which hit a total of 20 three pointers in the game to bury the rapidly free falling Lakers.
Then there is Dirk, who may be the best player in this year's postseason thus far. Despite the Mav's disappointing track record in the postseason through recent years, the blame can't be tied to Dirk, who is one of the few players in the league who's PER in the postseason is actually higher than his already impressive regular season rating. He's also one of only 4 players in history to average 25+ points and 10+ rebounds per game in the postseason. The other three on the list (Pettite, Baylor, Olajuwon) are already in the Hall of Fame, and one day Dirk Nowitzki will join them there. For now though, his focus is on preparing for the Western Conference Finals, as his journey to acquire an elusive championship ring continues.
Miami Heat defeat Boston Celtics
Last season the Celtics eliminated both Dwayne Wade and LeBron James on their way to the Finals. Boston has been a major roadblock for the two stars over the past few years. Having failed to dethrone the reigning Eastern champs on their own, the duo decided to join forces in Miami, along with Chris Bosh. With a star studded Big Three of their own, they were finally able to cast aside the demons that have haunted them for years by eliminating Boston from the playoffs.
The Heat got off to a fast start by winning the first two games in Miami to put Boston in an early hole. They had some help in Game 1, being on the fortunate end of several blown calls. Before you accuse me of making this observation through green tinted glasses, note that the NBA essentially said so themselves after the game. A bogus flagrant foul called on Jermaine O'Neal was later overturned by the league. It resulted in a 5 point possession, which unfortunately can't be overturned, that swung momentum to the Heat. Later in the game, James Jones committed a blatant flagrant foul against Pierce, who was unable to keep his cool and got into the face of Jones, resulting in each player being hit with a technical foul. After review, the league later upgraded the foul to a flagrant, but since it was not initially called one then the Celtics did not benefit from the extra free throws they deserved. So if you're keeping score at home, that's a 4 point swing due to the free throws that were awarded to the wrong team. Less than a minute later, Wade crashed through a screen set by Pierce, which could easily have been called a flagrant, but wasn't. The hard foul baited an already irate Pierce into a shouting match with Wade, which resulted in another set up double technicals, which meant Pierce was ejected from the game. You would be hard pressed to find anyone outside of Miami that agreed with the call to kick Pierce out of a playoff game for what he did, as even the TV announcers discussed how bizarre the decision was. That's not to say that Boston would have won if not for the blown calls, but the ending to what was a close game surely would have been altered if Pierce was on the court for those final 7 minutes of the game.
In Game 3 in Boston the Celtics were under a lot of pressure to fight their way back into this series, and they delivered. Kevin Garnett led the way with a vintage performance with 28 points and 18 rebounds, while shutting down Bosh on the defensive end. As much excitement as the win brought to energize the team, it came at a heavy cost. Rajon Rondo got tangled up with Wade going for a loose ball and Rondo fell hard to the floor, landing awkwardly on his left arm. The gruesome injury turned out to be a dislocated elbow, which forced Rondo back to the locker room. He would later make an inspiring return to the game, showcasing a gutsy performance to help lead the team to victory while one arm hung uselessly by his side. His "Willis Reed" moment gave the team a much needed spark, but in the long run may have doomed their chances in the series, as Rondo would be far from his usual self the rest of the way.
The Celtics had a chance to even the series in Game 4, but a botched play to end regulation ruined their chances at a game winning buzzer beater. The play was designed for KG to set a screen to free Ray Allen to get to his favorite spot in the corner, while also allowing Pierce to get enough room to try to make a drive to the basket as the clock ran down. But the screen never came, KG and Ray looked at each other in confusion, and Pierce was forced to throw up a contested fall away at the buzzer that clanged off the rim. The Heat would win easily in OT against a weary Celtics squad.
Game 5 was the last chance for Boston to make a stand, but the Heat's stars were too much to overcome. In addition to Rondo's injured elbow, the Celtics were devastated with injuries throughout their roster. Shaq played a mere 10 minutes in the entire series before shutting it down. Jermaine O'Neal battled back problems and an injured wrist, which now requires surgery. Pierce and KG were both banged up while Delonte West's shoulder was in such pain that he required an injection before the game to make it on the court. To beat a team with the talent that Miami has you have to be at your best. This banged up Celtics team, littered with injuries and slowed by fatigue, was far from at it's best. They put up a valiant fight, giving themselves chances to win in each game, but they eventually hit a wall they could not overcome.
While there were certainly plenty of issues that contributed to the team's decline in this series, they won't use that as an excuse. Give credit to Wade and LeBron, who alternated dominating this series. In the final minutes of the close out game, Lebron hit several back breaking big shots, helping to quiet the doubters that have hounded him about his inability to finish in close games. The Celtics defense is a puzzle that the Heat had always had trouble solving, as their team defense of loading up on the strong side to prevent Lebron or Wade from driving to the hoop forced them to settle for jump shots. The plan worked, but unfortunately they managed to hit those shots, while the Celtics struggled to hit theirs. LeBron, who is a mediocre career 32% shooter from 3 point range, hit a scorching 5 of 7 threes in Game 5. It's a shot the Celtics hoped to bait him into taking, but this time he made them pay.
So the Heat will move on to the next step in their quest for a title that will validate their decision to unite their trio of All-Stars, while the Celtics will slip away into the off-season with several questions about their future.
Chicago Bulls defeat Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks weren't given much of a chance in this series, especially with Kirk Hinrich missing the series due to injury, depriving them of their only reasonable stopper to contain Derrick Rose. Yet the Hawks put up a good fight and got off to a good start by stealing Game 1 on the road. Joe Johnson lived up to his hefty contract, at least for that game, as his game high 34 points stole the show.
One of the questions people had regarding the Bulls chances was how effective their rotation would be in the playoffs. One of their strengths in the regular season was their depth. Their second unit consistently dominated the benches of opposing players, which was a big factor in them rising to the top seed in the East. However, in the playoffs the starters tend to play more minutes, making less time for the Bulls to exploit that advantage. That weakness began to show in this series against a Hawks team that didn't have much depth beyond their starters, but for most of this series it didn't seem to matter.
Another reason for the Bulls struggles was the disappointing play of Carlos Boozer, who struggled through a painful turf toe injury. He seemed lost early in the series, before finally turning it up a notch and finishing strong to help lead his team to a clinching victory in Game 6.
One reason that helped Atlanta make this such a hard fought series came from an unlikely source. Jeff Teague wasn't used much in the regular season, but thanks to the Hinrich injury he was forced into an expanded role in the starting lineup, and the speedy point guard didn't disappoint. Not only was he the Hawks leading scorer in three of the games, but he also did a surprisingly good job of staying in front of Rose. While the newly crowned MVP still found ways to get his points, he wasn't quite as efficient as he typically is, in part because the defense forced him to shoot more outside shots.
The series lasted longer than the Bulls would have liked, but in the end the top seed prevailed, advancing them to the Eastern Finals for the first time since Jordan's last title run back in 1998.
Oklahoma City Thunder defeat Memphis Grizzlies
Perhaps the best series of this second round, or at least the one that was most closely contested. It was the only series this round to go a full 7 games and there was plenty of excitement. You could make a case for either team deserving to advance based on how they played, but in the end the Thunder outlasted this year's surprise underdog.
After upsetting the top seeded Spurs in the first round, the Grizzlies looked to keep the momentum going by taking Game 1 in OKC to steal home court advantage in the series. Zach Randolph's big game matched an equally impressive performance by Kevin Durant. Russell Westbrook had an impressive stat line of his own, but he once again took some heat for his shot selection by taking more shots than Durant at a less efficient rate. His 7 turnovers certainly didn't help either.
After a breathtaking triple overtime battle, it's safe to say we'll be seeing replays of Game 4 on ESPN Classic for years to come. After the Grizzlies hit a pair of incredible buzzer beaters to force the first two overtimes, Westbrook hit a big shot of his own to force the 3rd OT. By that point the Grizzlies team looked exhausted, while the younger legs of the Thunder helped them cruise through the final period. You know it was a great game when the fans of the losing team give the players a standing ovation at the end. The efforts of fighting through a total of 4 OT periods in the past two games carried over to Game 5 for the weary Grizzlies, who were blown out in OKC.
It should have been all but over after that, but those pesky Grizzlies just wouldn't go away, coming back to win on their home court and force a decisive Game 7. Randolph led the way again, furthering his case for being amongst the best players in the league this postseason.
With the series on the line the Thunder took care of business in front of a frenzied crowd at home. Kevin Durant led the way with a spectacular 39 point performance. Westbrook finally figured out how to get Durant the ball, while producing a triple-double (14 points, 10 boards, 14 assists). As impressive as their two All-Stars were, it was their bench that was the major difference in the game. Led by James Harden's 17 points, the Thunder bench outscored the Grizzlies reserves 42-22. As good as the front line for Memphis had been all series, the combination of Z-Bo and Gasol weren't able to make up the difference for the lackluster performance of the team's second unit.
It was a great run for the Cinderella story Memphis team, but the young Thunder team advance to try to show the world that their future is now.
Dallas Mavericks defeat LA Lakers
I expected this to be a hard fought series, with the potential to go a full 7 games. Instead, it ended in a 4 game sweep, but not by the team many would have expected to cruise through this series. It was the defending champion Lakers that fell to the team with a long history of postseason collapses, the Dallas Mavericks.
When the series started it appeared that we'd be treated to a thrilling series, highlighted by the two super stars that somehow had never faced each other in the postseason. Dirk led the Mavs to a narrow 2 point victory in Game 1, defeating Kobe's Lakers on their own court. What should have been a back and forth battle all series long ended up being the unraveling of the Lakers dynasty. Instead of competing for their 3rd straight title (and 6th overall for the tandem of Kobe and Phil Jackson), the Lakers will be headed for an early summer vacation with a lot of questions about their future. Phil Jackson is likely to retire, which depending on his replacement could result in drastic changes that may take time to adjust to. As Kobe Bryant nears the end of his storied career, he may not have the time to spare. Kobe's reluctance to go anywhere near the paint and settle for jump shots all series long is a sign that the window is closing for him.
When a champion falls, they fall hard. A 4 game sweep is bad enough, but a near 40 point blow out loss to end the series is just embarrassing. To top it off, a couple of players, notably Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum, showed a total lack of class and sportsmanship by getting themselves ejected at the end of the game. Bynum in particular was a disgrace. When Mavs guard JJ Barrea coasted down the lane for a layup, Bynum checked the defenseless Barrea in mid-air, causing the much smaller player to go crashing hard to the floor. Luckily Barrea was ok, but there's no way you can view that play without classifying Bynum's attack as a dirty cheap shot and a blatant attempt to injure another player. There is no place for that sort of play in the NBA and Bynum and the Lakers should be ashamed of themselves. Bynum will be suspended for the first 5 games next season, in addition to a heavy fine, and he's lucky the penalty wasn't steeper than that.
Let's not make this series all about the collapse of the Lakers. As Kobe admitted, the credit goes to the Mavs, who may be the hottest team in the league right now while performing well above the expectations of most of us who thought Dallas would struggle just to make it out of the first round. They are getting production from a variety of sources, especially from their bench, which combined for 86 points in Game 4, matching the total of the entire Lakers team in the game. Jason Terry tied an NBA playoff record by hitting 9 three pointers in the game. He combined with Peja Stojakovic to hit 15 out of 16 shots from beyond the arc, leading the way for the team, which hit a total of 20 three pointers in the game to bury the rapidly free falling Lakers.
Then there is Dirk, who may be the best player in this year's postseason thus far. Despite the Mav's disappointing track record in the postseason through recent years, the blame can't be tied to Dirk, who is one of the few players in the league who's PER in the postseason is actually higher than his already impressive regular season rating. He's also one of only 4 players in history to average 25+ points and 10+ rebounds per game in the postseason. The other three on the list (Pettite, Baylor, Olajuwon) are already in the Hall of Fame, and one day Dirk Nowitzki will join them there. For now though, his focus is on preparing for the Western Conference Finals, as his journey to acquire an elusive championship ring continues.
Miami Heat defeat Boston Celtics
Last season the Celtics eliminated both Dwayne Wade and LeBron James on their way to the Finals. Boston has been a major roadblock for the two stars over the past few years. Having failed to dethrone the reigning Eastern champs on their own, the duo decided to join forces in Miami, along with Chris Bosh. With a star studded Big Three of their own, they were finally able to cast aside the demons that have haunted them for years by eliminating Boston from the playoffs.
The Heat got off to a fast start by winning the first two games in Miami to put Boston in an early hole. They had some help in Game 1, being on the fortunate end of several blown calls. Before you accuse me of making this observation through green tinted glasses, note that the NBA essentially said so themselves after the game. A bogus flagrant foul called on Jermaine O'Neal was later overturned by the league. It resulted in a 5 point possession, which unfortunately can't be overturned, that swung momentum to the Heat. Later in the game, James Jones committed a blatant flagrant foul against Pierce, who was unable to keep his cool and got into the face of Jones, resulting in each player being hit with a technical foul. After review, the league later upgraded the foul to a flagrant, but since it was not initially called one then the Celtics did not benefit from the extra free throws they deserved. So if you're keeping score at home, that's a 4 point swing due to the free throws that were awarded to the wrong team. Less than a minute later, Wade crashed through a screen set by Pierce, which could easily have been called a flagrant, but wasn't. The hard foul baited an already irate Pierce into a shouting match with Wade, which resulted in another set up double technicals, which meant Pierce was ejected from the game. You would be hard pressed to find anyone outside of Miami that agreed with the call to kick Pierce out of a playoff game for what he did, as even the TV announcers discussed how bizarre the decision was. That's not to say that Boston would have won if not for the blown calls, but the ending to what was a close game surely would have been altered if Pierce was on the court for those final 7 minutes of the game.
In Game 3 in Boston the Celtics were under a lot of pressure to fight their way back into this series, and they delivered. Kevin Garnett led the way with a vintage performance with 28 points and 18 rebounds, while shutting down Bosh on the defensive end. As much excitement as the win brought to energize the team, it came at a heavy cost. Rajon Rondo got tangled up with Wade going for a loose ball and Rondo fell hard to the floor, landing awkwardly on his left arm. The gruesome injury turned out to be a dislocated elbow, which forced Rondo back to the locker room. He would later make an inspiring return to the game, showcasing a gutsy performance to help lead the team to victory while one arm hung uselessly by his side. His "Willis Reed" moment gave the team a much needed spark, but in the long run may have doomed their chances in the series, as Rondo would be far from his usual self the rest of the way.
The Celtics had a chance to even the series in Game 4, but a botched play to end regulation ruined their chances at a game winning buzzer beater. The play was designed for KG to set a screen to free Ray Allen to get to his favorite spot in the corner, while also allowing Pierce to get enough room to try to make a drive to the basket as the clock ran down. But the screen never came, KG and Ray looked at each other in confusion, and Pierce was forced to throw up a contested fall away at the buzzer that clanged off the rim. The Heat would win easily in OT against a weary Celtics squad.
Game 5 was the last chance for Boston to make a stand, but the Heat's stars were too much to overcome. In addition to Rondo's injured elbow, the Celtics were devastated with injuries throughout their roster. Shaq played a mere 10 minutes in the entire series before shutting it down. Jermaine O'Neal battled back problems and an injured wrist, which now requires surgery. Pierce and KG were both banged up while Delonte West's shoulder was in such pain that he required an injection before the game to make it on the court. To beat a team with the talent that Miami has you have to be at your best. This banged up Celtics team, littered with injuries and slowed by fatigue, was far from at it's best. They put up a valiant fight, giving themselves chances to win in each game, but they eventually hit a wall they could not overcome.
While there were certainly plenty of issues that contributed to the team's decline in this series, they won't use that as an excuse. Give credit to Wade and LeBron, who alternated dominating this series. In the final minutes of the close out game, Lebron hit several back breaking big shots, helping to quiet the doubters that have hounded him about his inability to finish in close games. The Celtics defense is a puzzle that the Heat had always had trouble solving, as their team defense of loading up on the strong side to prevent Lebron or Wade from driving to the hoop forced them to settle for jump shots. The plan worked, but unfortunately they managed to hit those shots, while the Celtics struggled to hit theirs. LeBron, who is a mediocre career 32% shooter from 3 point range, hit a scorching 5 of 7 threes in Game 5. It's a shot the Celtics hoped to bait him into taking, but this time he made them pay.
So the Heat will move on to the next step in their quest for a title that will validate their decision to unite their trio of All-Stars, while the Celtics will slip away into the off-season with several questions about their future.
Chicago Bulls defeat Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks weren't given much of a chance in this series, especially with Kirk Hinrich missing the series due to injury, depriving them of their only reasonable stopper to contain Derrick Rose. Yet the Hawks put up a good fight and got off to a good start by stealing Game 1 on the road. Joe Johnson lived up to his hefty contract, at least for that game, as his game high 34 points stole the show.
One of the questions people had regarding the Bulls chances was how effective their rotation would be in the playoffs. One of their strengths in the regular season was their depth. Their second unit consistently dominated the benches of opposing players, which was a big factor in them rising to the top seed in the East. However, in the playoffs the starters tend to play more minutes, making less time for the Bulls to exploit that advantage. That weakness began to show in this series against a Hawks team that didn't have much depth beyond their starters, but for most of this series it didn't seem to matter.
Another reason for the Bulls struggles was the disappointing play of Carlos Boozer, who struggled through a painful turf toe injury. He seemed lost early in the series, before finally turning it up a notch and finishing strong to help lead his team to a clinching victory in Game 6.
One reason that helped Atlanta make this such a hard fought series came from an unlikely source. Jeff Teague wasn't used much in the regular season, but thanks to the Hinrich injury he was forced into an expanded role in the starting lineup, and the speedy point guard didn't disappoint. Not only was he the Hawks leading scorer in three of the games, but he also did a surprisingly good job of staying in front of Rose. While the newly crowned MVP still found ways to get his points, he wasn't quite as efficient as he typically is, in part because the defense forced him to shoot more outside shots.
The series lasted longer than the Bulls would have liked, but in the end the top seed prevailed, advancing them to the Eastern Finals for the first time since Jordan's last title run back in 1998.
Oklahoma City Thunder defeat Memphis Grizzlies
Perhaps the best series of this second round, or at least the one that was most closely contested. It was the only series this round to go a full 7 games and there was plenty of excitement. You could make a case for either team deserving to advance based on how they played, but in the end the Thunder outlasted this year's surprise underdog.
After upsetting the top seeded Spurs in the first round, the Grizzlies looked to keep the momentum going by taking Game 1 in OKC to steal home court advantage in the series. Zach Randolph's big game matched an equally impressive performance by Kevin Durant. Russell Westbrook had an impressive stat line of his own, but he once again took some heat for his shot selection by taking more shots than Durant at a less efficient rate. His 7 turnovers certainly didn't help either.
After a breathtaking triple overtime battle, it's safe to say we'll be seeing replays of Game 4 on ESPN Classic for years to come. After the Grizzlies hit a pair of incredible buzzer beaters to force the first two overtimes, Westbrook hit a big shot of his own to force the 3rd OT. By that point the Grizzlies team looked exhausted, while the younger legs of the Thunder helped them cruise through the final period. You know it was a great game when the fans of the losing team give the players a standing ovation at the end. The efforts of fighting through a total of 4 OT periods in the past two games carried over to Game 5 for the weary Grizzlies, who were blown out in OKC.
It should have been all but over after that, but those pesky Grizzlies just wouldn't go away, coming back to win on their home court and force a decisive Game 7. Randolph led the way again, furthering his case for being amongst the best players in the league this postseason.
With the series on the line the Thunder took care of business in front of a frenzied crowd at home. Kevin Durant led the way with a spectacular 39 point performance. Westbrook finally figured out how to get Durant the ball, while producing a triple-double (14 points, 10 boards, 14 assists). As impressive as their two All-Stars were, it was their bench that was the major difference in the game. Led by James Harden's 17 points, the Thunder bench outscored the Grizzlies reserves 42-22. As good as the front line for Memphis had been all series, the combination of Z-Bo and Gasol weren't able to make up the difference for the lackluster performance of the team's second unit.
It was a great run for the Cinderella story Memphis team, but the young Thunder team advance to try to show the world that their future is now.
Thursday, May 12, 2011
Cloudy future for the C's
After a disappointing loss to the rival Miami Heat, the Celtics season came to a premature end. As injuries piled up and fatigue took over the worn down bodies of the veterans, there just wasn't enough left in the tank to overcome the star studded Heat team. With their season over, the team now finds itself entering an off-season full of questions that cloud the future of the franchise.
GM Danny Ainge will have his hands full this off-season trying to determine which direction to go in - either to make one last run with the current core group of players or blow it up and re-build. His decision will likely be heavily impacted by the first domino to fall, coach Doc Rivers. For months there has been speculation that this would be the last season for Rivers in Boston, as he has been seriously considering taking a year off to spend more time with his family and have the chance to see his son play college ball at Duke next season. If Rivers were to step aside then his decision may impact the rest of the roster.
After last nights loss, Rivers indicated that he's "leaning heavily" towards returning. "I haven't made that decision. But I can tell you that I probably will," said Rivers in response to questions about his return. Is this really going to be his decision, or was it an emotional answer given in the aftermath of defeat.
"I don't believe this team is done," added Rivers, indicating that he still considers himself a part of the team as they attempt to come back stronger next season.
But are they done? Since this core was formed back in 2008, the Big Three have attempted to defy the effects of Father Time, but there continue to be signs of the grind of so many minutes over their careers taking it's toll. Paul Pierce, KG and Ray Allen will be 34, 35, and 36 years old respectively next season. While each is in phenomenal shape and avoided major injuries for the most part this season, it's difficult to expect that all three will make it through another grueling season unscathed or without further decline in production.
After the Big Three, there are questions about who will surround them. Rondo will only be 26, and as the franchise player to build around for the future, he appears to be a lock to be here. Jeff Green could also be a key piece of their future, but he has been a mild disappointment in his short run in Boston so far and will be a restricted free agent. Considering they gave away Kendrick Perkins to get him, it would be a big loss to give up on Green already, but he would have to accept a reasonable deal and a role off the bench in order to stay. Big Baby Davis has been a key part of their bench the last few years, but he will be an unrestricted free agent. While he has expressed interest in remaining in Boston, he made clear his desire for an increased role, preferably as a starter. If the rest of the core remains, that appears to be an unlikely proposition.
Then there are the O'Neal's. Jermaine has another year left on the mid-level exception deal that he signed prior to this season, while Shaq has a player option for another year. Given that each of them struggled with injuries all season it would not be a surprise if either of them decided to hang it up. Considering he wasn't even able to finish the season healthy, Shaq seems likely to have played his last game in the NBA. If they both leave it will leave a gaping hole at the center position, which will be difficult for the team to fill given the lack of available big men and the constraints of the salary cap (which will likely be even lower next year).
Speaking of a lower salary cap, that leads us to the biggest question mark of all this off-season - the collective bargaining agreement, which could potentially lead to a lockout if the two sides aren't able to agree before the start of next season. If the worst case scenario were to occur, with the season being lost due to a lockout, then this would almost certainly spell the end of an era for this Celtics team. Only Rondo, Pierce and Avery Bradley are currently under contract for 2012 and beyond.
Most likely we won't have to endure the loss of an entire season, but it's not unreasonable to expect that a lockout could force a shortened season. The last time the NBA had a lockout was in 1999, which led to a shortened 50 game season. That season followed the latest championship run for Michael Jordan's Bulls. The uncertainty of the lockout was a major factor in MJ's decision to retire and for Phil Jackson to take some time off. There may be some similarities with that Bulls team and this Celtics team, as a lockout could push Rivers to take a year off rather than have to deal with the stress of a lockout, while some of the aging veterans may see it as a sign to walk away and retire.
Then again, a lockout could work in their favor if the coach and their core players decide to stick together for one last title run. Hypothetically, if this lockout ends up anything like the last one, then we can expect a shorter season (perhaps 50 games, like last time), which plays right into the hands of this veteran group. The past several years the Celtics have raced out to a fast start only to stumble at the end of a grueling season. With a shortened schedule, the grind would not be as tough, saving them more energy for the playoffs. Through 50 games this past season the Celtics were the top team in the East, but as they struggled with injuries and fatigue down the stretch they slowly gave away the top seed and fell to third in the conference. In theory, a shorter season would leave less time to blow a lead in the standings once the team hits that mid-season wall. The longer off-season would also give the team more time to rest their tired legs and get ready for another season.
The changing landscape in the league, based on new policies and altered salary cap rules that will eventually be agreed upon in the new CBA, will have a big impact on the direction the franchise will go in. It all starts with Doc. If the uncertainty of a lockout and the draw of his family pulls him away from coaching for a year then the rest of the core may be less inclined to stick together for a final run. Depending on who would be brought in to replace Rivers, the team's playbook could be drastically altered. If a lockout shortens or removes training camp and pre-season games then it would make it very difficult for a team to adjust to a new coach. That may tempt players like KG and the O'Neals to walk away, triggering a need for Ainge to blow things up. Perhaps those players, who technically could still be under contract, would delay retirement long enough to be used as trade bait for teams desperate to cut salary (the team trading for a player that immediately retires after the trade would have that player's contract come off their books). Ray Allen could decline his player option in that scenario, or allow the team to use him as a valuable trade chip for a team that feels they are one veteran shooter away from a title (like the Bulls). This would of course likely take the team out of contention for next year, but with a few savvy decisions by Ainge, it could speed up the inevitable re-building period by getting a few assets in return for the departing veterans rather than watching them leave as free agents or retirement.
As it stands now, it appears that Doc and the core members of this team will stay together for one last title run. Despite the early exit this season, this group will surely be a contender again next season with the right collection of role players added around them. It seems that we've been saying every year since 2008 that this will be their final run, but they still manage to keep squeezing out another competitive year from this core. There is still enough fight left in this champion tested squad to make one last stand. Whether or not they will get that chance may be out of their hands, in which case it really will be the end of an era. If that's the case then it's been an incredible run. As a fan, I'll miss watching this group compete together as a real team, but they will have left us with no regrets after they are gone. This team gave us two Finals appearances, one Championship, several memorable playoff series and made a legendary franchise relevant again. Hopefully we haven't seen the end for this team yet, but if we have then it's been a great ride.
GM Danny Ainge will have his hands full this off-season trying to determine which direction to go in - either to make one last run with the current core group of players or blow it up and re-build. His decision will likely be heavily impacted by the first domino to fall, coach Doc Rivers. For months there has been speculation that this would be the last season for Rivers in Boston, as he has been seriously considering taking a year off to spend more time with his family and have the chance to see his son play college ball at Duke next season. If Rivers were to step aside then his decision may impact the rest of the roster.
After last nights loss, Rivers indicated that he's "leaning heavily" towards returning. "I haven't made that decision. But I can tell you that I probably will," said Rivers in response to questions about his return. Is this really going to be his decision, or was it an emotional answer given in the aftermath of defeat.
"I don't believe this team is done," added Rivers, indicating that he still considers himself a part of the team as they attempt to come back stronger next season.
But are they done? Since this core was formed back in 2008, the Big Three have attempted to defy the effects of Father Time, but there continue to be signs of the grind of so many minutes over their careers taking it's toll. Paul Pierce, KG and Ray Allen will be 34, 35, and 36 years old respectively next season. While each is in phenomenal shape and avoided major injuries for the most part this season, it's difficult to expect that all three will make it through another grueling season unscathed or without further decline in production.
After the Big Three, there are questions about who will surround them. Rondo will only be 26, and as the franchise player to build around for the future, he appears to be a lock to be here. Jeff Green could also be a key piece of their future, but he has been a mild disappointment in his short run in Boston so far and will be a restricted free agent. Considering they gave away Kendrick Perkins to get him, it would be a big loss to give up on Green already, but he would have to accept a reasonable deal and a role off the bench in order to stay. Big Baby Davis has been a key part of their bench the last few years, but he will be an unrestricted free agent. While he has expressed interest in remaining in Boston, he made clear his desire for an increased role, preferably as a starter. If the rest of the core remains, that appears to be an unlikely proposition.
Then there are the O'Neal's. Jermaine has another year left on the mid-level exception deal that he signed prior to this season, while Shaq has a player option for another year. Given that each of them struggled with injuries all season it would not be a surprise if either of them decided to hang it up. Considering he wasn't even able to finish the season healthy, Shaq seems likely to have played his last game in the NBA. If they both leave it will leave a gaping hole at the center position, which will be difficult for the team to fill given the lack of available big men and the constraints of the salary cap (which will likely be even lower next year).
Speaking of a lower salary cap, that leads us to the biggest question mark of all this off-season - the collective bargaining agreement, which could potentially lead to a lockout if the two sides aren't able to agree before the start of next season. If the worst case scenario were to occur, with the season being lost due to a lockout, then this would almost certainly spell the end of an era for this Celtics team. Only Rondo, Pierce and Avery Bradley are currently under contract for 2012 and beyond.
Most likely we won't have to endure the loss of an entire season, but it's not unreasonable to expect that a lockout could force a shortened season. The last time the NBA had a lockout was in 1999, which led to a shortened 50 game season. That season followed the latest championship run for Michael Jordan's Bulls. The uncertainty of the lockout was a major factor in MJ's decision to retire and for Phil Jackson to take some time off. There may be some similarities with that Bulls team and this Celtics team, as a lockout could push Rivers to take a year off rather than have to deal with the stress of a lockout, while some of the aging veterans may see it as a sign to walk away and retire.
Then again, a lockout could work in their favor if the coach and their core players decide to stick together for one last title run. Hypothetically, if this lockout ends up anything like the last one, then we can expect a shorter season (perhaps 50 games, like last time), which plays right into the hands of this veteran group. The past several years the Celtics have raced out to a fast start only to stumble at the end of a grueling season. With a shortened schedule, the grind would not be as tough, saving them more energy for the playoffs. Through 50 games this past season the Celtics were the top team in the East, but as they struggled with injuries and fatigue down the stretch they slowly gave away the top seed and fell to third in the conference. In theory, a shorter season would leave less time to blow a lead in the standings once the team hits that mid-season wall. The longer off-season would also give the team more time to rest their tired legs and get ready for another season.
The changing landscape in the league, based on new policies and altered salary cap rules that will eventually be agreed upon in the new CBA, will have a big impact on the direction the franchise will go in. It all starts with Doc. If the uncertainty of a lockout and the draw of his family pulls him away from coaching for a year then the rest of the core may be less inclined to stick together for a final run. Depending on who would be brought in to replace Rivers, the team's playbook could be drastically altered. If a lockout shortens or removes training camp and pre-season games then it would make it very difficult for a team to adjust to a new coach. That may tempt players like KG and the O'Neals to walk away, triggering a need for Ainge to blow things up. Perhaps those players, who technically could still be under contract, would delay retirement long enough to be used as trade bait for teams desperate to cut salary (the team trading for a player that immediately retires after the trade would have that player's contract come off their books). Ray Allen could decline his player option in that scenario, or allow the team to use him as a valuable trade chip for a team that feels they are one veteran shooter away from a title (like the Bulls). This would of course likely take the team out of contention for next year, but with a few savvy decisions by Ainge, it could speed up the inevitable re-building period by getting a few assets in return for the departing veterans rather than watching them leave as free agents or retirement.
As it stands now, it appears that Doc and the core members of this team will stay together for one last title run. Despite the early exit this season, this group will surely be a contender again next season with the right collection of role players added around them. It seems that we've been saying every year since 2008 that this will be their final run, but they still manage to keep squeezing out another competitive year from this core. There is still enough fight left in this champion tested squad to make one last stand. Whether or not they will get that chance may be out of their hands, in which case it really will be the end of an era. If that's the case then it's been an incredible run. As a fan, I'll miss watching this group compete together as a real team, but they will have left us with no regrets after they are gone. This team gave us two Finals appearances, one Championship, several memorable playoff series and made a legendary franchise relevant again. Hopefully we haven't seen the end for this team yet, but if we have then it's been a great ride.
Monday, May 2, 2011
NBA Playoffs - Round 2
The final 8 teams are set to square off for the Conference Semifinals in what has so far proved to be a very exciting postseason. Round 1 provided us with plenty of drama, exciting finishes and even a historical upset.
Let's see how the remaining teams match up against each other in this round.
Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics
Boston won 3 out of the 4 regular season meetings, but Miami won the most recent game in convincing fashion and have home court advantage in this series. That loss by the Celtics came during a month long stretch where the team was in a funk and playing no better than a .500 team. They have since recaptured the intensity that makes them a championship caliber team, so we can expect them to play much better than in their last meeting. On the other hand, two of those Celtics victories came early in the season when the Heat were still struggling to find their way as a team. So what does the regular season tell us? Not much I'm afraid, except that these are two elite teams that are fairly evenly matched, which should make for a great series.
One of the best match-ups in this series will be LeBron James against Paul Pierce. The two have gone against each other many times and Pierce has lived up to the challenge by playing him exceptionally well. Most of their history goes back to when James was in Cleveland though. Now that he has two All-Stars around him it will make them much harder to guard.
One of the main reasons for the mid-season trade that cost them Kendrick Perkins was to add depth at the wing with a playoff series against the Heat in mind. Jeff Green was brought in to help guard wing players like James and Wade when the starters need a rest. He has been a bit of a disappointment thus far. This has to be the series where he breaks out and shows us something in order to validate that trade.
With the Big Three on each team essentially cancelling each other out, Rajon Rondo figures to be the x-factor in this series. He was quiet in their last meeting, but came back to life against the Knicks in the last round. He needs to play at that elite level for the Celtics to win this series. When he's playing well he can't be stopped and should be able to pick apart Mike Bibby.
Boston needs to steal one of the first two games in Miami to take away home court advantage in order to have a chance in this series. Both teams know they are capable of beating the other, but the Heat have been unable to win in Boston so far. I don't see the Heat losing a Game 7 at home, which means in order for the C's to win they need to win one of those first two games. So...
Celtics in 6 games
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis shocked the world by becoming only the second #8 seed in history to win a best of 7 series. They proved they are better than your typical 8 seed, but the Cinderella story ends here. As well as the Grizzlies have played lately, OKC has been even better. Unlike the Spurs, the Thunder have the size to contend with the Grizzlies' front court thanks to the mid-season trade that brought them Kendrick Perkins. Memphis won 3 out of the 4 games in the regular season, but that was in part due to Zach Randolph abusing the undersized Jeff Green. The Perkins trade gives them an enforcer in the middle and also allows them to start Serge Ibaka, who has been outstanding since joining the starting lineup, especially on the defensive end. San Antonio didn't have enough size aside from an aging Tim Duncan to contend with both Randolph and Gasol, but the Thunder do, which takes away the biggest advantage Memphis had that got them to where they are now.
Memphis also can't match OKC in terms of star power. They have a lot of quality players, but nobody on the level of All-Stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. They have lockdown defender Tony Allen to help slow down Durant, but then Westbrook is capable of taking over. There are just too many weapons for Memphis to handle.
I expect this to be a hard fought series with several close games. Memphis should be able to hang around considering how well they play at home, but the Thunder will outlast them in the end.
Thunder in 7 games
Chicago Bulls vs Atlanta Hawks
These teams faced each other three times in the regular season, all of which came within a span of three weeks. While Atlanta managed to win a narrow victory in the first game at home, the Bulls won in convincing fashion in the other two games. Considering Chicago has home court advantage in this series, the regular season provides us with little reason to believe Atlanta has much of a chance in this series.
Atlanta's primary goal has to be trying to slow down Derek Rose, but that task became an even bigger challenge after the loss of hard-nosed defender Kirk Hinrich. A hamstring injury could keep Hinrich out for the entire series.
The Hawks have an athletic front court of Josh Smith and Al Horford that should match up well against the Bulls. Horford, who won a NCAA championship in Florida with Joakim Noah, loves to match up against his former college teammate. Expect the two of them to take their games to another level when they match up against each other in this series. Meanwhile, Smith will have the challenge of containing Carlos Boozer, who has a size advantage over him. Boozer has struggled in the postseason so far, and Smith's athleticism helps make up for the size difference, which is why he's still among the league's best shot blockers.
Part of what carried the Hawks past Orlando in the first round was the hot shooting of Jamal Crawford. His scorching outside shot was deadly against the Magic, but he'll find it much harder to get going against the league's top defense. Atlanta will find it hard to score in this series. For them to have a chance they need their top scorer, Joe Johnson to step up and take over. He's been wildly inconsistent in the playoffs (not just this year, but in his career). It's time for JJ to live up to that outrageous contract he signed last summer.
A ferocious defense combined with a determined Derek Rose will likely prove to be too much for the overmatched Hawks. Kudos to them for making it to the Conference Semifinals again, but as has been the case over the past few years, their ride ends here.
Bulls in 5
LA Lakers vs Dallas Mavericks
If we learned anything from the first round of the playoffs it's that the Lakers may have more questions surrounding their team than we thought, while the Mavs may be a better team than many are giving them credit for. Despite being the #3 seed in a very competitive West, not much was expected of the Mavs this postseason, with some even expecting them to be upset in the first round (guilty!). They proved their doubters wrong before, but now a much more difficult task awaits as they take on the defending champs.
As successful as these two teams have been over the past decade, amazingly we have yet to see a playoff match-up between Kobe's Lakers and Dirk's Mavs. The teams finished with identical records, with the Lakers winning the tie breaker due to a blowout victory in their third meeting near the end of the season. The loss came during a troublesome stretch for the Mavs where they stumbled through a 4 game losing streak. That stretch, which cost them home court advantage in this series, would seem like an even bigger issue had the Lakers not gone through their own losing streak near the end of the regular season, in addition to struggling at times in round 1 against an undermanned Hornets team that they were expected to coast by.
One of the Laker's biggest weaknesses is containing quick guards, which is why Chris Paul was able to dominate at times in the previous series. That won't be nearly as much of a problem for them in this series. While Jason Kidd looked rejuvenated against the Blazers, the aging super star has still lost a step (or two).
The match-up to watch in this series is Dirk against Pau Gasol. Both can be unstoppable at times on offense, but neither is known as a defensive stopper. Plenty of points should be scored from that match-up. Gasol struggled through the first round (it's been pointed out repeatedly that little brother Marc is having a far better postseason for the Grizzlies), but perhaps this series will get him going.
The difference maker, to no one's surprise, is Kobe Bryant. The Mavs have nobody to stop him, so as long as he's healthy he should dominate in this series. He had an injury scare in the last series, but will play through it regardless of how much pain he's in. A bigger issue for the Lakers would be if his supporting cast continues to struggle, in which case Kobe has a history of trying to do too much on his own. He's capable of winning games on his own, but also capable of losing them on his own when he goes into that selfish mode. If the Mavs struggle to contain him it will be interesting to see if they switch up the defensive assignments on him. Shawn Marion is capable of defending just about any position, and while it's rare to see him covering a guard, he may be their best chance of slowing down Kobe.
Not many are going to give Dallas a chance in this series, but I think it ends up being closer than we expect. I still expect the Lakers to advance, but they will have to battle to do it.
Lakers in 7
Let's see how the remaining teams match up against each other in this round.
Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics
Boston won 3 out of the 4 regular season meetings, but Miami won the most recent game in convincing fashion and have home court advantage in this series. That loss by the Celtics came during a month long stretch where the team was in a funk and playing no better than a .500 team. They have since recaptured the intensity that makes them a championship caliber team, so we can expect them to play much better than in their last meeting. On the other hand, two of those Celtics victories came early in the season when the Heat were still struggling to find their way as a team. So what does the regular season tell us? Not much I'm afraid, except that these are two elite teams that are fairly evenly matched, which should make for a great series.
One of the best match-ups in this series will be LeBron James against Paul Pierce. The two have gone against each other many times and Pierce has lived up to the challenge by playing him exceptionally well. Most of their history goes back to when James was in Cleveland though. Now that he has two All-Stars around him it will make them much harder to guard.
One of the main reasons for the mid-season trade that cost them Kendrick Perkins was to add depth at the wing with a playoff series against the Heat in mind. Jeff Green was brought in to help guard wing players like James and Wade when the starters need a rest. He has been a bit of a disappointment thus far. This has to be the series where he breaks out and shows us something in order to validate that trade.
With the Big Three on each team essentially cancelling each other out, Rajon Rondo figures to be the x-factor in this series. He was quiet in their last meeting, but came back to life against the Knicks in the last round. He needs to play at that elite level for the Celtics to win this series. When he's playing well he can't be stopped and should be able to pick apart Mike Bibby.
Boston needs to steal one of the first two games in Miami to take away home court advantage in order to have a chance in this series. Both teams know they are capable of beating the other, but the Heat have been unable to win in Boston so far. I don't see the Heat losing a Game 7 at home, which means in order for the C's to win they need to win one of those first two games. So...
Celtics in 6 games
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis shocked the world by becoming only the second #8 seed in history to win a best of 7 series. They proved they are better than your typical 8 seed, but the Cinderella story ends here. As well as the Grizzlies have played lately, OKC has been even better. Unlike the Spurs, the Thunder have the size to contend with the Grizzlies' front court thanks to the mid-season trade that brought them Kendrick Perkins. Memphis won 3 out of the 4 games in the regular season, but that was in part due to Zach Randolph abusing the undersized Jeff Green. The Perkins trade gives them an enforcer in the middle and also allows them to start Serge Ibaka, who has been outstanding since joining the starting lineup, especially on the defensive end. San Antonio didn't have enough size aside from an aging Tim Duncan to contend with both Randolph and Gasol, but the Thunder do, which takes away the biggest advantage Memphis had that got them to where they are now.
Memphis also can't match OKC in terms of star power. They have a lot of quality players, but nobody on the level of All-Stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. They have lockdown defender Tony Allen to help slow down Durant, but then Westbrook is capable of taking over. There are just too many weapons for Memphis to handle.
I expect this to be a hard fought series with several close games. Memphis should be able to hang around considering how well they play at home, but the Thunder will outlast them in the end.
Thunder in 7 games
Chicago Bulls vs Atlanta Hawks
These teams faced each other three times in the regular season, all of which came within a span of three weeks. While Atlanta managed to win a narrow victory in the first game at home, the Bulls won in convincing fashion in the other two games. Considering Chicago has home court advantage in this series, the regular season provides us with little reason to believe Atlanta has much of a chance in this series.
Atlanta's primary goal has to be trying to slow down Derek Rose, but that task became an even bigger challenge after the loss of hard-nosed defender Kirk Hinrich. A hamstring injury could keep Hinrich out for the entire series.
The Hawks have an athletic front court of Josh Smith and Al Horford that should match up well against the Bulls. Horford, who won a NCAA championship in Florida with Joakim Noah, loves to match up against his former college teammate. Expect the two of them to take their games to another level when they match up against each other in this series. Meanwhile, Smith will have the challenge of containing Carlos Boozer, who has a size advantage over him. Boozer has struggled in the postseason so far, and Smith's athleticism helps make up for the size difference, which is why he's still among the league's best shot blockers.
Part of what carried the Hawks past Orlando in the first round was the hot shooting of Jamal Crawford. His scorching outside shot was deadly against the Magic, but he'll find it much harder to get going against the league's top defense. Atlanta will find it hard to score in this series. For them to have a chance they need their top scorer, Joe Johnson to step up and take over. He's been wildly inconsistent in the playoffs (not just this year, but in his career). It's time for JJ to live up to that outrageous contract he signed last summer.
A ferocious defense combined with a determined Derek Rose will likely prove to be too much for the overmatched Hawks. Kudos to them for making it to the Conference Semifinals again, but as has been the case over the past few years, their ride ends here.
Bulls in 5
LA Lakers vs Dallas Mavericks
If we learned anything from the first round of the playoffs it's that the Lakers may have more questions surrounding their team than we thought, while the Mavs may be a better team than many are giving them credit for. Despite being the #3 seed in a very competitive West, not much was expected of the Mavs this postseason, with some even expecting them to be upset in the first round (guilty!). They proved their doubters wrong before, but now a much more difficult task awaits as they take on the defending champs.
As successful as these two teams have been over the past decade, amazingly we have yet to see a playoff match-up between Kobe's Lakers and Dirk's Mavs. The teams finished with identical records, with the Lakers winning the tie breaker due to a blowout victory in their third meeting near the end of the season. The loss came during a troublesome stretch for the Mavs where they stumbled through a 4 game losing streak. That stretch, which cost them home court advantage in this series, would seem like an even bigger issue had the Lakers not gone through their own losing streak near the end of the regular season, in addition to struggling at times in round 1 against an undermanned Hornets team that they were expected to coast by.
One of the Laker's biggest weaknesses is containing quick guards, which is why Chris Paul was able to dominate at times in the previous series. That won't be nearly as much of a problem for them in this series. While Jason Kidd looked rejuvenated against the Blazers, the aging super star has still lost a step (or two).
The match-up to watch in this series is Dirk against Pau Gasol. Both can be unstoppable at times on offense, but neither is known as a defensive stopper. Plenty of points should be scored from that match-up. Gasol struggled through the first round (it's been pointed out repeatedly that little brother Marc is having a far better postseason for the Grizzlies), but perhaps this series will get him going.
The difference maker, to no one's surprise, is Kobe Bryant. The Mavs have nobody to stop him, so as long as he's healthy he should dominate in this series. He had an injury scare in the last series, but will play through it regardless of how much pain he's in. A bigger issue for the Lakers would be if his supporting cast continues to struggle, in which case Kobe has a history of trying to do too much on his own. He's capable of winning games on his own, but also capable of losing them on his own when he goes into that selfish mode. If the Mavs struggle to contain him it will be interesting to see if they switch up the defensive assignments on him. Shawn Marion is capable of defending just about any position, and while it's rare to see him covering a guard, he may be their best chance of slowing down Kobe.
Not many are going to give Dallas a chance in this series, but I think it ends up being closer than we expect. I still expect the Lakers to advance, but they will have to battle to do it.
Lakers in 7
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