The Big Game is almost here! Super Bowl Sunday has become an unofficial national holiday in the eyes of sports fans from coast to coast. No other sporting event draws as many viewers or gets as much hype as the NFL's championship game. Granted there are some people that only watch for the commercials or the halftime show. Nonetheless, the Super Bowl is as exciting an event as you'll find in sports.
Super Bowl XLV features the Pittsburgh Steelers against the Green Bay Packers. These are two of the league's most storied franchises. Despite being from small markets, their deep historical roots in the NFL have drawn rabid fan bases for each team that spread nationwide. Both teams have some of the most passionate fans in the league, many of whom will fill the stadium in Dallas this Sunday (at least the seats that aren't all bought by corporations anyway).
The Green Bay Packers won the first two Super Bowls and later added a 3rd title during the Brett Favre era (you didn't think you'd get through an article about the Packers... or football... or anything for that matter... without Favre being mentioned, did you?). Dating back to the pre-Super Bowl era, no team in the league has won more championships than the Packers franchise. Since the Super Bowl was introduced in 1967, no team has won more than the Steelers, who have won 6 Super Bowls. Led by QB Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers have won 2 of the last 5 Super Bowls. With a win on Sunday, Big Ben will have won the third Super Bowl of his career, moving him into a tie with Tom Brady for the most titles among active QBs.
The last time these two teams met was in a late regular season match-up in 2009. The Steelers won a 37-36 shootout when Roethlisberger hit Mike Wallace for a TD as time expired. The two teams combined for nearly 900 passing yards and 9 TDs. This game should also be close, but don't expect that kind of offensive explosion.
The Steelers and Packers were 2nd and 5th in the league respectively in total defense this season. The Steelers were by far the toughest team to run against. Their 62.8 rushing yards allowed per game is nearly 30 yards per game better than the next best rush defense in the league. Good thing Green Bay doesn't have much of a running game anyway!
These elite defenses boast two of the best defensive players in the league in Clay Matthews and Troy Polamalu. All eyes will be on these two players when their defenses take the field - and it's not because of their hair. Polamalu received the award for Defensive Player of the Year with his 7 interceptions, despite missing two games this season. Matthews, who was my pick for the award for best defensive player, had 13.5 sacks and forced 3 turnovers.
As impressive as these defenses are, each team has plenty to offer on offense. Aaron Rodgers was in the top 10 in the league in passing yards and Roethlisberger likely would have joined him near the top had he not been suspended for the season's first four games. Both QBs are among the best in the league at rolling out of the pocket to the right to make a throw or scramble for extra yards on the ground. The two teams match each other with big play receivers. Greg Jennings is one of the league's best playmakers at the position and was 2nd in the league in receiving TDs. The Steelers counter with Mike Wallace, who may be the fastest receiver in the league, and a master at catching deep passes.
The biggest advantage for either team is in the running game. While the Steelers have become more of a throwing team in recent years as opposed to the franchise's traditional ground and pound approach, they are still very capable of gaining yards on the ground. Rashard Mendanhall rushed for over 1,200 yards this season and established himself as an elite RB. Meanwhile, the Packers struggled to establish a running game all year and will start the unproven James Starks, who only appeared in 3 games this season before taking over the lead role in the playoffs.
The Steeler's biggest weakness is with their offensive line, which has been decimated by injuries. This could present a problem for them when dealing with a pass rushing force like Clay Matthews. On the bright side for Pittsburgh, Roethlisberger is a mobile QB capable of moving around to avoid the rush. He's also rather big for his position and difficult to bring down. It often takes more than one defender to drag Big Ben to the ground. Plus, it's not as if the Packers have a great offensive line themselves. Despite being a mobile QB himself, Rodgers was sacked 31 times this season, only 1 less than Roethlisberger. True, Roethlisberger played less games due to his suspension, but Rodgers also missed a game (as well as most of another) due to a concussion, so it's really more like a 2 game difference between the two QBs.
These teams are pretty evenly matched, making it a tough call in predicting a winner. I will of course be rooting for the Packers, since another Steelers Super Bowl victory would challenge Tom Brady and the Patriots for the title of the best team of the past decade. Can't let that happen! Plus I have trouble siding with someone with as many shady character issues as Roethlisberger. From a purely football standpoint though, it's a close call. I imagine it will be a close game, with the winner being decided in the final minutes of the game. Roethlisberger has been on this stage before, giving him an advantage. He's mastered the art of winning ugly, as several of his playoff wins have come despite less than impressive stats in the box score.
I expect the Steelers defense to frustrate the Packers early, allowing Pittsburgh to get out to an early lead before Rodgers leads a furious comeback in the second half. If the game is close in the end then game management will be a key element. The Steelers have an advantage between the coaches here, as Mike McCarthy has often been criticized for his late game decision making. Each of their six losses this season was by 4 points or less, two of which came in overtime. Each of their wins was by a margin of at least that much. Granted two of those losses came without Rodgers on the field, but while the sample size may be small it still isn't a good sign for the Packers in a close game.
The odds seem to be leaning towards the Steelers, but I'm still sticking with the Packers. Roethlisberger may have more of a track record as a winner, but I still give Rodgers the edge as the better QB. The strength of the Steelers defense is against the running game, but Green Bay has proven capable of winning without much help from their stable of feeble RBs. For the Steelers to be successful they need to dominate with a strong rushing attack, but I think the Packers will try to lure them into trying to match them in the passing game. The Packers have a deeper core of receivers that can spread the defense - a tactic that has worked well for the Patriots in recent years against the Steelers. Rodgers will carry the team on his back (perhaps aided by some ill-timed Steelers penalties, which have plagued them all year) and will be the one raising the Lombardy trophy in the end.
My prediction for Supser Bowl XLV...
Packers 31, Steelers 27
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