The NBA trade deadline is fast approaching and no player has made more headlines regarding trade rumors this season than Carmelo Anthony. The All-Star forward from the Nuggets has an early opt out clause in his contract that can make him a free agent after this season and it's no secret that he intends to leave Denver.
There are plenty of pros and cons for everyone involved, which has turned this into a very complicated issue. Let's break down the different aspects of a potential trade.
Why does Melo want to leave Denver?
Anthony has his eyes set on the bright lights of New York. He wants to be on a big stage and no other city can cast him into the spotlight more than NYC. There he would have the opportunity to team up with his buddy Amare Stoudemire to attempt to form their own group of super friends to rival the trio in Miami that was formed over the summer. The Knicks also run a player friendly system through Mike D'Antoni's up-tempo offense, which would be appealing to a high volume shooter like Melo. It also doesn't hurt that his wife is pushing for a move to New York to help further her own career.
When you look around the league at contending teams it's clear that in this league you need to have more than one super star in order to be a contender. Teams like the Celtics, Lakers and Heat all have multiple All-Star caliber players. As great a player as Carmelo Anthony is, he knows he's not winning a title in Denver. He has a nice supporting cast with players like Nene and Afflalo, but neither of them will be a super star, and Chauncey Billups is on the decline. The window in Denver has closed and Melo has decided that it's time to move on. After seeing players like LeBron, Wade and Bosh team up together this season, Melo is determined to take a similar short cut to land on a contending team.
Why would Denver want to trade him?
Because they saw how the departures of LeBron and Bosh devastated their former teams when they were allowed to walk away as free agents while getting nothing in return. The Nuggets are determined not to let that happen to them. If they are going to lose their star player then they are going to want to get some young players and draft picks back in return. They would also like to dump some of their bad contracts on any team looking to acquire Melo, with the goal of getting under the luxury tax line, which would save them millions of dollars.
Would Melo consider staying in Denver?
Here is where it gets interesting, because Denver actually has more leverage in these trade talks than people think. A common misconception is that teams will try to low ball the Nuggets because they think they are desperate, but that's not necessarily the case. There is still a 3 year, $65 million extension from Denver on the table that would be awfully hard to walk away from. Ideally, Melo would like to sign the extension and then be traded. That way he gets his big money contract and also moves to his team of choice. The problem is that the Nuggets aren't foolish enough to be held hostage in these talks, so they aren't going to accept an offer that doesn't benefit them. If they don't receive a serious offer to their liking then they could decide to keep him for the rest of this season and hope that he changes his mind by signing the extension to stay with them after all.
Why should the Knicks give up anything when they can sign Melo as a free agent?
For a team like the Knicks that is looking to trade for Melo, they have to play along to come up with a package that appeals to Denver because they can't count on getting him as a free agent, no matter how much Melo claims he's only interested in playing in New York.
One of the biggest obstacles in these trade talks is the uncertainty of the collective bargaining agreement, which expires after this season. A new agreement has yet to be reached, which means we potentially could be headed for a lockout next season. Even if a new agreement is reached in time, it's widely believed that it will include a lower salary cap limit, which may also include a hard cap that prevents teams from overspending into the luxury tax. This would make it more difficult for a team like the Knicks to afford giving another max contract to a star like Melo when they already have so much money committed to Stoudemire. Rumor has it there may even be a franchise tag option, similar to what the NFL uses, which would allow teams to prevent a star player from leaving (we can thank LeBron for forcing the league to consider that idea). The new agreement is also likely to be less friendly to player contracts, meaning that the extension Melo is able to sign now is almost certainly more money than he will be able to make as a free agent. If a trade can't be worked out before the deadline this month then Melo is risking millions of dollars if he refuses to sign the extension.
The other thing to keep in mind is that the Knicks really aren't giving up much, at least under the three team deal that is currently on the table, which includes the Minnesota Timberwolves. In this proposed deal, the Knicks would send Anthony Randolph to the Timberwolves, along with Eddy Curry's expiring contract. They would then send Wilson Chandler to the Nuggests, who would also receive Corey Brewer and a first round draft pick from Minnesota. Denver and Minnesota may require additional pieces, draft picks or cash to be included to finalize such a deal, but it doesn't sound like that will include anything the Knicks aren't willing to part with the get Anthony. Curry's bloated contract covers a lot of the salary requirements and he doesn't even play. Randolph is loaded with potential but currently is not a key part of their rotation. Chandler is the only real loss to the Knicks rotation. He's having a break out season and still has more upside, but Melo is still a clear upgrade and would take his spot in the rotation. Chandler will be a restricted free agent after this season, and in order to sign Melo as a free agent they would need to renounce their rights to Chandler because they can't afford both. If signing Melo would mean losing Chandler anyway then trading him away now isn't a big loss. If the Knicks can pull off this trade without having to sacrifice Danillo Gallinari or Landry Fields then this deal becomes a steal for them. Even if one of those two needs to be included, the Knicks still end up ahead. Getting a trade done now, even if it means giving up some expendable assets, is a much wiser choice than gambling that Melo won't cave in and accept more money to stay in Denver.
What are the other teams that could get involved?
New Jersey: The Nets supposedly pulled out of trade talks last month, but this could be a savvy negotiating move by Russian billionaire owner Mikhail Prokhorov to regain control of the discussions. Their package centered around promising rookie Derek Favors is still by far the best offer Denver has been given thus far. Melo has been non-committal as to whether he would sign an extension to accept a trade to New Jersey, but with the team expected to move to Brooklyn within two years, the Nets may be an appealing option still. They were clearly aggravated by how negotiations were going and the fact that so much of it became public, which caused them to back out. Don't count them out to sneak under the radar and quietly pull off a deadline deal that would trump anything else Denver has been offered.
LA Lakers: It's unclear how serious the offer is, or if it's more a matter of people blowing smoke to gain leverage, but supposedly the Lakers and Nuggets have discussed the possibility of a swap between Carmelo Anthony and Andrew Bynum. For this to make sense for Denver there would almost certainly have to be other players involved to allow them to save some money in the deal. Bynum has shown flashes of being a dominant big man, but also has some huge injury question marks. He also doesn't seem to be a good fit next to Nene, so trading for Bynum would essentially mean they should be prepared to start shopping Nene as well, or else see him walk away after this season.
For the Lakers, it's a huge risk that may not be worth taking for them either. Melo is a high volume scorer and is essentially a lesser version of Kobe. We saw Lebron and Wade struggle to co-exist early on in Miami this season. Melo and Kobe would inevitably struggle through some initial growing pains as well, but while Miami has a whole season to develop chemistry together, the Lakers would have less than half the season. Lebron and Wade are also more willing passers and less selfish with the ball than Melo and Kobe, so they seem less likely to co-exist than the Miami duo. Giving up Bynum also takes away one of their biggest advantages of a dominating frountcourt with Bynum and Gasol. When you factor in Odom coming off the bench, few teams can compete with the Lakers' length. The Lakers have a limited window to win a title now, so it may be unwise for a team going for their third straight title to risk their chemistry with such a major change this late in the season.
So where will he end up?
This all depends on what Melo values most - winning or money. Staying in Denver will most likely mean getting the most money, but going to New York or LA offers him a better chance to win a title in the next few years. When he was recently asked about this decision, Melo responded by saying "If I sit here and say I'm willing to lose 15 or 20 million dollars, I'd be lying to you. But at the same time this has never been about money. … Now I'm focused on trying to win a championship." So he's essentially saying his impending free agency is about money, but it's not about money. Ok, that clears things up.
If I had to guess, I'd bet on Carmelo Anthony being traded to the Knicks before this month's trade deadline. If he were satisfied with being in Denver then this never would have been an issue, so I just can't see him staying there long term. As we've discussed, it just makes too much sense for the Knicks to work something out before the deadline rather than risk waiting for free agency.
The Knicks are already a playoff team, currently holding the 6th seed in the East. Adding Melo would be a boost for the team, but with only about 30 games remaining in the season it may be too late to move up. The trade might make them better than Orlando and Atlanta, but it would still be a challenge for them to make up the 4 or 5 games that they trail each team in the loss column, especially when you factor in the adjustment period it would take to incorporate Melo into the offense. So while their playoff seeding might not be impacted at all, it would make them a more dangerous first round opponent for one of the East's elite teams and could be a potential upset pick to advance to the second round. That's probably their ceiling for this year, but having two star players like Melo and Stoudemire would help attract other players that they can build around in the future. With some of the league's best teams, such as the Spurs, Celtics and Lakers, nearing the end of their windows as contenders, now is the time for a team like the Knicks to start building toward being a contender in a couple of years.
It will be very interesting to see how this plays out, as it could have some major ramifications on the playoff races in each conference, both this year and in the future. Nobody knows how it will play out yet - probably not even Melo. As long as this doesn't end up with Melo as a free agent making his decision of where he's taking his talents to on national TV. Aside from that sort of a disaster, this is shaping up to be an exciting story as we head toward the trade deadline.
No comments:
Post a Comment