Celtics GM Danny Ainge isn't the most popular guy in Boston at the moment and a lot of that has to do with his surprising decision to ship fan favorites Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson to Oklahoma City for Jeff Green, Nenad Kristic and a 2012 1st round draft pick from the Clippers. It was a shocking move made just before the trade deadline expired that sent fans into a frenzy of confusion.
Step back from the cliff for a moment Celtics fans. It's not as bad as it seems.
For starters, many of the people complaining about this deal don't know enough about how good Jeff Green is. You may forget, but he was the 5th overall choice in the 2007 draft - selected by the Celtics. He was traded to Seattle in the deal to acquire Ray Allen, but the team has plenty of scouting material on him from when they evaluated him back then, as well as what they've seen from him in his 3+ years in the league to justify their evaluations. Talent wise, he's a better player than Perkins. He's averaged 15 points and 6 rebounds per game over the last few seasons despite playing alongside All-Stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook in OKC. He's a pretty good shooter and defender, capable of filling in at either forward spot. He can thrive off the bench as the main scoring option in Boston's 2nd unit while allowing the team to manage the minutes of their aging big three.
The Celtics were desperate to add a wing player, preferably one that could fill the SF spot behind Paul Pierce. They were thin at the position already, but when Marquies Daniels went down with a bruised spinal cord and was likely lost for the season the team found itself in an uncomfortable position of not having a back up at that position. The addition of Green allows them to give more rest to Pierce so that he's healthy and fresh for the playoffs. Green can also help fill in for KG and perhaps even Ray Allen. His versatility will help coach Doc Rivers manage his team's minutes while still keeping a capable scoring option on the floor.
The argument against the trade is that many believe the Celtics may have robbed Peter to pay Paul. They filled a big void on their roster by acquiring a wing player, but also weakened their depth at the center position. It's true that the physical presence of Perkins will be missed. He brought toughness and attitude to the starting unit and was one of the best defensive centers in the league. His presence was vital to the Celtics success the last few years as he kept other big men in check - from Dwight Howard to Andrew Bynum.
I'm not going to argue that Perkins will be missed, but it may be overblown just how much of an impact his loss will have on this team. For starters, the Celtics are currently at the top of the Eastern Conference despite the fact that Perkins has only played in 12 games this season. He missed most of the year recovering from a torn ACL and is currently back on the shelf for at least a week with a sprain to his other knee. Durability has been a concern for all of the Celtic's centers this year and the team may have figured they needed a more reliable option. You may not be thrilled with Kristic, but at least he's healthy. He's also a better offensive player than Perkins and has a good mid-range jump shot that will help spread the floor and force the other team to keep a defender on him. However, he's not nearly the defensive player that Perkins is. The Celtics are keeping their fingers crossed that Shaq will get healthy soon and Jermaine O'Neal will contribute something before the playoffs begin. That's a pretty big risk if you are counting on both of those to happen and those not in favor of this trade are right to point out that neither of the O'Neals can play heavy minutes. However, it should be pointed out that Perkins has never averaged as many as 30 minutes per game in his career. If they can get 20 minutes a night out of Shaq, another 5-10 minutes from Jermaine and split the remaining minutes between Kristic and Big Baby Davis then they can get by with that. Kristic is an upgrade over rookie Semih Erdin, who was forced to play more minutes earlier this season then we would have liked. Considering how well they played before Perkins returned from injury despite the rash of other injured big men, the Celtics may be in better shape now then they were earlier this season.
Let's not forget that Perkins wasn't the only player the Celtics gave up in this deal. Nate Robinson was adored by fans for being an exciting spark plug off the bench that was capable of scoring in bunches. However, Nate never seemed to find a consistent groove in the past year with Boston. Due to the team's lack of depth behind Rondo, he was often forced to be a ball handler despite not really being comfortable in that role. He thrives more when he plays off the ball and can be a shooter, but that was rarely the opportunity he was given with this team. Doc's trust in him was on thin ice due to some of his decision making issues, so when you add that to the fact that he didn't have a clear role on this team then he just wasn't a good fit. With Delonte West healthy again and ready to take over as the back-up guard, Nate became expendable.
Another aspect of this trade that needs to be considered is that it was also made with an eye towards the future. Granted the Celtics are in a position to win now, but they still feel they can win with this roster, and rightfully so. The team had attempted to work out a contract extension with Perkins, but he had made it clear that he was interested in testing his value on the open market. They risked losing him after this season, or at least would have had to pay him more than they were comfortable with given his recent knee issues. Perhaps they know something about his knees that we don't. In any case, he was no longer a part of the team's future plans. Meanwhile, Jeff Green will be a restricted free agent, making him a more likely target to be re-signed long term. He could be an important piece for the team's future after the big three retire to their rocking chairs.
Don't overlook the 2012 draft pick they obtained in the deal, which OKC had previously obtained from the Clippers. It's top 10 protected for that year, but the Celtics could still potentially get a late lottery pick out of the deal. Given the Clippers history, it seems like they are always in the lottery, so there is a good chance we'll end up with a good draft pick at some point, even if we have to wait a few years to get it. It's also a valuable trade asset if we choose to package it for another deal in the future.
We also have to keep in mind that just because the trade deadline has come and gone doesn't mean the roster has been finalized. There is still work that can be done. In separate deals the Celtics already sent rookies Semih Erdin and Luke Harangody to Cleveland, as well as Marquies Daniels to Sacramento for future 2nd round draft picks. It wasn't the draft picks the were after though, it was the roster spots. None of those players were likely to be key contributors come playoff times (especially Daniels, who is out for the season). By freeing up three roster spots it allows the team to acquire any veteran players that get bought out of their current contracts by teams looking to save money. Names such as Troy Murphy, Rip Hamilton and Samuel Dalembert have floated around as potential candidates to be bought out, allowing them to sign with a contender. When the Celtics won the title in 2008 it was in part due to contributions from players like PJ Brown and Sam Cassell, both of whom were picked up after the trade deadline. The Celtics find themselves in the same situation and are hoping to pick up some veterans that can provide a similar boost.
This is just speculation, but could letting Perkins go be part of a bigger plan for the future? Dwight Howard can be a free agent in 2012. By not extending Perkins, the Celtics have made themselves players as a potential destination for the league's top center. By then the only current players under contract for the Celtics would be Rondo and Pierce, plus potentially Green and Davis if they get extended after this season. That opens up a lot of cap room to lure a player of D12's caliber. Maybe the post-big three rebuilding era in Boston won't be so bad after all.
It's understandable that Boston fans are left bewildered by this trade, especially considering how under the radar it was kept. It seemingly came out of nowhere and it was a surprise to everyone. Once the new guys settle into their roles and we begin to get more of our injured players back on the court, I believe the team will be better off both for the rest of this year and in the long run. Part of that may be determined based upon who we have to face in the playoffs. We needed Perkins to beat Orlando last year and you can make a fair case for his injury being the main reason why we lost game 7 of the Finals to LA. It's a new year though, and those two teams may not be the ones we need to go through this time. If the path to the title goes through Miami and San Antonio then this trade makes us better suited to match up with those teams. It's risky to try to project playoff match-ups at this point, but if those teams are a bigger threat then this trade makes sense, as depth at the wings becomes more important than a defensive big man like Perkins.
It's risky for a team already in first place in the conference to shake things up this much. Doc Rivers will now need to retire the phrase stating that this starting five has never lost a playoff series when healthy. Perhaps the added depth is more important though. Maybe Shaq can play strong down the stretch and successfully replace Perkins in the starting line-up to start a new streak of undefeated playoff series. Maybe fans will stop being angry about this trade if it ends up with the Celtics raising banner number 18 in June. Give it time for the dust to settle down and see how the rest of the roster fills out. Maybe things aren't as bad as they seem. Maybe Danny Ainge knows what he's doing after all.
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