The Pujols Problem

How much is too much?  When does a deal stretch a team's financial limits beyond the point where it no longer is in the team's best interests?  These are the types of questions that the St. Louis Cardinals have been asking themselves for a while now.  It's hardly a matter that can be taken lightly and one that requires much thought and attention.  Yet the Cardinals may have doomed themselves by thinking too much and for too long while stretching beyond their time limits.  Now the window may be closing - possibly forever.

The problem the team faces is with re-signing their super star player, Albert Pujols, who's contract will expire after this season.  Pujols made it clear that he had no desire to negotiate during the season and had set a deadline for a deal to be reached.  Otherwise he had every intention of playing out his final year on his contract before becoming a free agent.  That deadline was noon yesterday, and a deal has yet to be agreed upon.

It's unclear how far apart the sides are at this point, but it's rumored that Pujols is looking for a deal that would pay him $30 million per year for the next 10 years.  The $300 million total would eclipse the $275 million, 10 year deal that Alex Rodriguez signed with the Yankees in 2008, giving Pujols the largest contract on MLB history.

Is Pujols worth that much?  Well, if anyone is worth it, it's Pujols.  He's undeniably the best player in the game today, and arguably could end up being amongst the best players ever.  He's the only player in MLB history to hit more than 400 HRs and 800 Extra Base Hits in the first 10 years of his career.  He's averaged a .331 Batting Avg., .425 OBP, .624 SLG, 42 Home Runs, and 128 RBIs per season in his career.  Those are MVP caliber numbers for most players, but for Pujols it's just a typical year.

His value is tied to more than just what he can do with his bat.  He's one of the top fielding first basemen in the NL, something that most of the top sluggers at his position can't claim.  He's also an above average base runner, especially for his position, having stolen an average of 15 bases over the past two seasons while only being caught stealing 4 times in each of those years (80% success rate).  Over the past decade he has accumulated a WAR of 83.8, which makes him only the second player in history to have a WAR over 80 over that same time span (Ted Williams is the all time leader).

Those are some impressive statistics, but Pujols means much more to the Cardinals than what can be found in a box score.  He's the face of their franchise.  He's spent his entire career in St. Louis and become deeply tied to the fanbase and community.  He has led the team to two World Series, winning one of them.  The Cardinals have been a contender in the NL for the past decade because of Pujols.  Without him the team would be relatively mediocre.

So why would they let him go?  Well, to be fair, they aren't exactly pointing to the exit.  They want to keep him and undoubtedly will still continue to try even if he does reach free agency, but the price has to be right.  $30 million a year may seem like an unreasonable amount, but for everything Pujols brings to the table it's not quite as absurd as you might think.  It's commonly theorized that each win a player earns his team compared to a replacement level player (WAR) is worth between $4-$5 million.  Pujols has averaged over 8 WAR per season in his career according to FanGraphs.com, meaning that in his average season his value makes him worth between $32-40 million a year.  With last year's 7.4 WAR, FanGraphs valued him at $33.3 million.  So a $30 million price tag isn't unreasonable if he sustains a similar level of production. 

The problem isn't with the yearly salary, it's with the number of years.  10 years is a long time for a team to commit to one player, especially one that is on the wrong side of 30 years old.  Pujols is officially listed as being 31 years old, but it's rumored that he may be older than that.  It's not all that uncommon for players from other countries, such as the Dominican Republic, to lie about their age.  This is all speculation of course, but it's a risk to consider for any team looking to give him that long of a contract.  Players tend to decline as they enter their mid-30's and most retire soon after.  A 10 year deal would keep Pujols under contract until he is at least 41 years old (depending on what age you believe he is now).  Even if he continues to play that long, it is unprecedented for a player to keep producing at this elite level at that age.  It's not unreasonable to expect Pujols to remain amongst the top players in the game for several more years, but not another decade.  Anyone willing to commit to that long of a contract will have to be comfortable with the last several years of that contract essentially being a sunk cost, as the production he offers in the twilight of his career will no longer be worth the high salary. 

A mid-market team like St. Louis may not be able to afford to have such a high portion of their payroll budget tied up to one player, especially when that player is no longer able to carry the team.  Unlike the Yankees, who can afford to overpay Derek Jeter to reward him for his past contributions and legacy, it makes business sense for the Cardinals to offer Pujols a contract that will primarily be based upon what he will contribute over the course of this next contract, not the previous contract.  Because their budget is more limited than some of the other top teams, extending Pujols at that amount per year may mean they are forced to part ways with some of their other high priced veterans, such as Chris Carpenter.  It also may mean that they may run into problems in the future signing some of their young stars, such as Colby Rasmus.  Giving in to his contract demands would keep the Cardinals on the short list of contenders for the next several years, but in doing so they would be mortgaging their future, as they would find it very difficult to compete in the later years of this contract when so much money is tied to one player that is no longer producing at a high level.

But who says they have to give into his demands?  Even if he does follow through on his threat to test free agency, it doesn't eliminate the Cardinals from keeping him.  They aren't comfortable handing out that large of a deal, but would anyone else do it?  Every team in the league would like to add Pujols to their lineup, but perhaps not at that price.  The usual suspects with big payrolls, such as the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies, are already locked into long term big money deals with elite first basemen.  The Phillies don't have the luxury of simply moving Ryan Howard to DH, and the two AL rivals have first basemen that are equal, if not better, to Pujols with the glove, meaning if he were to join either team it'd likely be as a DH.  That's far too much money to commit to a player who doesn't play the defensive side of the game.

So if we can likely rule out those three teams, who else could be in the mix?

• Chicago Cubs: They would like nothing more than to stick it to their division rivals by stealing away their top player.  However, this franchise has been a mess for years and is loaded with bad contracts. They've been able to shed some of them so far, but have a lot of work to do if they hope to be able to afford Pujols.
• LA Angels: They struck out this off-season, but could ease some of the pain by getting involved with the Pujols talks.  Supposedly they still have money to spend, but haven't been able to get anyone to take it the past few years.  Unfortunately they have a few holes left to fill and 1B isn't one of them.  Their best hitter already plays that position.  They'd have to be willing to explore trade options for Kendry Morales to help fill those other holes if they have any intention of going after Pujols, and that plan only works if Morales can come back strong from last year's freak leg injury.
• LA Dodgers: The team has always been high on James Loney, but Pujols is a clear upgrade.  Loney is a good hitter, but lacks the power to play a corner position.  The McCourts divorce saga would have to get resolved or the team would have to be sold before the Dodgers could think about giving out this big of a contract.  That's uncertain to be resolved in time to give them a shot at Pujols.
• Washington Nationals: They were met with a lot of criticism this off-season for overpaying Jayson Werth.  Do they really have enough money left over for Pujols, especially when they know they will eventually have to pay big money to keep their young core (Zimmerman, Strasberg, Harper, Storen) together?
• NY Mets: Despite the big market, the Mets haven't been in a big spending mode lately.  They have too many bad contracts that need to come off the books before they can commit to another large deal.  Their ownership group is still struggling to recover financially from the Madolf scandal and some of their past mistakes on big contracts may make them hesitant to sign off on another risky long term deal.
• Texas Rangers: They have new owners that are determined to be winners and have some money laying around from the cash Cliff Lee was unwilling to take.  Beltre took a big chunk of that money, so it remains to be seen how much these new owners are willing to expand payroll.  He would be a good fit for their team, but they need to unload Michael Young's contract and make sure they have enough set aside for the future of their own young stars before getting involved in this discussion.

So there are several teams that could be considered in the mix, but each has their own reasons for why they would be just as hesitant as St. Louis to offer Pujols the money and years he is looking for.  It's certainly a concern for St. Louis if he does reach free agency, as some of these teams may jump in to drive up the price, but it seems unlikely that anyone would pay the $300 million he's asking for, nevermind going over that amount. 

It would be in the Cardinal's best interest to somehow get this worked out.  Perhaps they can't afford the contract Pujols is hoping for, but the franchise can't afford to lose a player of his caliber.  It would be a devastating loss, perhaps even worse than when LeBron James left Cleveland (although I'd expect Pujols to have a much classier exit if he does leave).  He refuses to be traded, so losing him would only result in a couple of extra draft picks.  There would be no replacing a player of his caliber. 

I expect that when this is all said and done Pujols will remain in St. Louis.  The $30 million price tag would be easier to swallow if it were for 7 years, but it may take at least 8 years to get this done.  Or they could consider adding a couple extra years, as many as 9 or 10 total, as long as the average annual salary drops to something like $25 million.  Either an 8 year, $240 million deal or a 10 year, $250 million deal would be fair.  Unfortunately that may not be enough for Pujols because it still falls short of the A-Rod deal.  Forget that the Yankees may already be regretting giving A-Rod that deal as signs of his decline are already apparent. Players don't think like that.  Another player got that contract and Pujols considers himself to be the superior player, therefore he wants the larger contract.  Nevermind that he'd never spend all that money in three lifetimes, it's all about the respect and pride of  the game's best player getting the biggest deal ever.

So to make everyone happy, how about this: 9 years, $276 million ($30.6/year).  That puts it $1 million above the A-Rod deal, so he'd still have the highest contract, as well as the highest average annual salary.  The deal could also be heavily front-loaded, so they are paying him big money for his productive years now, while not crushing their future with a bloated deal near the end of the contract.

It's still probably more money and years than the Cardinals would like to pay, and obviously less than Pujols expects, but this is about compromise.  Forget about unofficial deadlines, egos and hurt feelings. This deal works for both sides, so how about it guys - let's get this done!