Celtics GM Danny Ainge isn't the most popular guy in Boston at the moment and a lot of that has to do with his surprising decision to ship fan favorites Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson to Oklahoma City for Jeff Green, Nenad Kristic and a 2012 1st round draft pick from the Clippers. It was a shocking move made just before the trade deadline expired that sent fans into a frenzy of confusion.
Step back from the cliff for a moment Celtics fans. It's not as bad as it seems.
For starters, many of the people complaining about this deal don't know enough about how good Jeff Green is. You may forget, but he was the 5th overall choice in the 2007 draft - selected by the Celtics. He was traded to Seattle in the deal to acquire Ray Allen, but the team has plenty of scouting material on him from when they evaluated him back then, as well as what they've seen from him in his 3+ years in the league to justify their evaluations. Talent wise, he's a better player than Perkins. He's averaged 15 points and 6 rebounds per game over the last few seasons despite playing alongside All-Stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook in OKC. He's a pretty good shooter and defender, capable of filling in at either forward spot. He can thrive off the bench as the main scoring option in Boston's 2nd unit while allowing the team to manage the minutes of their aging big three.
The Celtics were desperate to add a wing player, preferably one that could fill the SF spot behind Paul Pierce. They were thin at the position already, but when Marquies Daniels went down with a bruised spinal cord and was likely lost for the season the team found itself in an uncomfortable position of not having a back up at that position. The addition of Green allows them to give more rest to Pierce so that he's healthy and fresh for the playoffs. Green can also help fill in for KG and perhaps even Ray Allen. His versatility will help coach Doc Rivers manage his team's minutes while still keeping a capable scoring option on the floor.
The argument against the trade is that many believe the Celtics may have robbed Peter to pay Paul. They filled a big void on their roster by acquiring a wing player, but also weakened their depth at the center position. It's true that the physical presence of Perkins will be missed. He brought toughness and attitude to the starting unit and was one of the best defensive centers in the league. His presence was vital to the Celtics success the last few years as he kept other big men in check - from Dwight Howard to Andrew Bynum.
I'm not going to argue that Perkins will be missed, but it may be overblown just how much of an impact his loss will have on this team. For starters, the Celtics are currently at the top of the Eastern Conference despite the fact that Perkins has only played in 12 games this season. He missed most of the year recovering from a torn ACL and is currently back on the shelf for at least a week with a sprain to his other knee. Durability has been a concern for all of the Celtic's centers this year and the team may have figured they needed a more reliable option. You may not be thrilled with Kristic, but at least he's healthy. He's also a better offensive player than Perkins and has a good mid-range jump shot that will help spread the floor and force the other team to keep a defender on him. However, he's not nearly the defensive player that Perkins is. The Celtics are keeping their fingers crossed that Shaq will get healthy soon and Jermaine O'Neal will contribute something before the playoffs begin. That's a pretty big risk if you are counting on both of those to happen and those not in favor of this trade are right to point out that neither of the O'Neals can play heavy minutes. However, it should be pointed out that Perkins has never averaged as many as 30 minutes per game in his career. If they can get 20 minutes a night out of Shaq, another 5-10 minutes from Jermaine and split the remaining minutes between Kristic and Big Baby Davis then they can get by with that. Kristic is an upgrade over rookie Semih Erdin, who was forced to play more minutes earlier this season then we would have liked. Considering how well they played before Perkins returned from injury despite the rash of other injured big men, the Celtics may be in better shape now then they were earlier this season.
Let's not forget that Perkins wasn't the only player the Celtics gave up in this deal. Nate Robinson was adored by fans for being an exciting spark plug off the bench that was capable of scoring in bunches. However, Nate never seemed to find a consistent groove in the past year with Boston. Due to the team's lack of depth behind Rondo, he was often forced to be a ball handler despite not really being comfortable in that role. He thrives more when he plays off the ball and can be a shooter, but that was rarely the opportunity he was given with this team. Doc's trust in him was on thin ice due to some of his decision making issues, so when you add that to the fact that he didn't have a clear role on this team then he just wasn't a good fit. With Delonte West healthy again and ready to take over as the back-up guard, Nate became expendable.
Another aspect of this trade that needs to be considered is that it was also made with an eye towards the future. Granted the Celtics are in a position to win now, but they still feel they can win with this roster, and rightfully so. The team had attempted to work out a contract extension with Perkins, but he had made it clear that he was interested in testing his value on the open market. They risked losing him after this season, or at least would have had to pay him more than they were comfortable with given his recent knee issues. Perhaps they know something about his knees that we don't. In any case, he was no longer a part of the team's future plans. Meanwhile, Jeff Green will be a restricted free agent, making him a more likely target to be re-signed long term. He could be an important piece for the team's future after the big three retire to their rocking chairs.
Don't overlook the 2012 draft pick they obtained in the deal, which OKC had previously obtained from the Clippers. It's top 10 protected for that year, but the Celtics could still potentially get a late lottery pick out of the deal. Given the Clippers history, it seems like they are always in the lottery, so there is a good chance we'll end up with a good draft pick at some point, even if we have to wait a few years to get it. It's also a valuable trade asset if we choose to package it for another deal in the future.
We also have to keep in mind that just because the trade deadline has come and gone doesn't mean the roster has been finalized. There is still work that can be done. In separate deals the Celtics already sent rookies Semih Erdin and Luke Harangody to Cleveland, as well as Marquies Daniels to Sacramento for future 2nd round draft picks. It wasn't the draft picks the were after though, it was the roster spots. None of those players were likely to be key contributors come playoff times (especially Daniels, who is out for the season). By freeing up three roster spots it allows the team to acquire any veteran players that get bought out of their current contracts by teams looking to save money. Names such as Troy Murphy, Rip Hamilton and Samuel Dalembert have floated around as potential candidates to be bought out, allowing them to sign with a contender. When the Celtics won the title in 2008 it was in part due to contributions from players like PJ Brown and Sam Cassell, both of whom were picked up after the trade deadline. The Celtics find themselves in the same situation and are hoping to pick up some veterans that can provide a similar boost.
This is just speculation, but could letting Perkins go be part of a bigger plan for the future? Dwight Howard can be a free agent in 2012. By not extending Perkins, the Celtics have made themselves players as a potential destination for the league's top center. By then the only current players under contract for the Celtics would be Rondo and Pierce, plus potentially Green and Davis if they get extended after this season. That opens up a lot of cap room to lure a player of D12's caliber. Maybe the post-big three rebuilding era in Boston won't be so bad after all.
It's understandable that Boston fans are left bewildered by this trade, especially considering how under the radar it was kept. It seemingly came out of nowhere and it was a surprise to everyone. Once the new guys settle into their roles and we begin to get more of our injured players back on the court, I believe the team will be better off both for the rest of this year and in the long run. Part of that may be determined based upon who we have to face in the playoffs. We needed Perkins to beat Orlando last year and you can make a fair case for his injury being the main reason why we lost game 7 of the Finals to LA. It's a new year though, and those two teams may not be the ones we need to go through this time. If the path to the title goes through Miami and San Antonio then this trade makes us better suited to match up with those teams. It's risky to try to project playoff match-ups at this point, but if those teams are a bigger threat then this trade makes sense, as depth at the wings becomes more important than a defensive big man like Perkins.
It's risky for a team already in first place in the conference to shake things up this much. Doc Rivers will now need to retire the phrase stating that this starting five has never lost a playoff series when healthy. Perhaps the added depth is more important though. Maybe Shaq can play strong down the stretch and successfully replace Perkins in the starting line-up to start a new streak of undefeated playoff series. Maybe fans will stop being angry about this trade if it ends up with the Celtics raising banner number 18 in June. Give it time for the dust to settle down and see how the rest of the roster fills out. Maybe things aren't as bad as they seem. Maybe Danny Ainge knows what he's doing after all.
Friday, February 25, 2011
NBA Deadline Deals
The NBA trade deadline has passed, bringing an end to weeks of drama brought on by rumors and speculation. Surprisingly, this year's deadline actually lived up to the hype, perhaps even surpassing it. We expected one All-Star player to be on the move, but were instead treated to two blockbuster trades that sent a couple of this year's Western Conference All-Stars over to the East.
Now that the dust has settled down, let's sort through the rubble to determine which teams came out winners and which were losers in these deals.
Winners
New York Knicks:
Going out: Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Timofey Mozgov, Raymond Felton, Anthony Randolph, Eddy Curry's expiringcorpse contract, 2014 1st round draft pick + cash
Coming In: Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Anthony Carter, Renaldo Blackman, Sheldon Williams, Corey Brewer
After months of speculation, the Knicks finally got their man. They now have a second legitimate super star to pair with Amare Stoudemire that they can attempt to build around to make the team into a contender.
Despite that they appear to have gutted their team, they actually didn't really give up that much. The majority of the money used to match contracts comes from Curry, who will likely never play another game. If they weren't able to trade for Melo and attempted to go after him in free agency then they would be forced to renounce their rights to restricted free agent Wilson Chandler, so they would have lost him either way. Felton is having a career year, but Billups is the kind of savvy veteran they will need in the playoffs. Felton wasn't going to be their PG of the future anyway, as they have their sights set on Chris Paul in 2012. Billups is a better fit until then. Mozgov's 4 points and 3 rebounds per game were easy to let go of and Randolph still hasn't lived up to his potential. Neither player was a key part of Mike D'Antoni's short rotation.
Gallinari is the biggest loss for the Knicks, but he plays the same position as Melo. The Knicks have enough trouble on defense as it is without attempting to play the two of them together, so despite his upside he became expendable because Melo is a clear upgrade. The trade also weakens their depth, which is less of a concern for them since they generally only play 8 guys anyway. The area their lack of depth could come back to haunt them is at PG. Felton was playing over 38 minutes per game, which is a number they can't hope for the older Billups to come close to unless they plan to run him into the ground. That likely means giving more minutes to their weak bench players.
The Knicks currently hold the 6th seed in the East. With only 27 games remaining they have no chance at one of the top seeds in the conference. They should improve enough to easily hold other teams below them, but it will be a challenge to move up. They have a chance at catching Atlanta, despite being 3 games back in the loss column, due to the Hawks having one of the more brutal schedules for the remainder of the season. It's unlikely that they have time to go any higher than that unless Orlando suffers an epic collapse. We also have to assume that Melo and Billups will take some time to mesh with their new teammates. We saw the Miami trio get off to a slow start this season, and James and Wade are better passes and less selfish players than Melo/Stoudemire. It may take them the rest of the season to really gel as a team. What this trade does do is make them a more dangerous first round playoff opponent. They still probably won't get out of the first round, but they are now the team that none of the top Eastern contenders wants to have to face in the first round.
The real winner in this deal is Carmelo Anthony. He gets to go to the team he wants to play for and gets his money too (he agreed to the three year, $65 million extension as part of the trade, something he would not have gotten if he became a free agent).
Denver Nuggets
Going out: Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Anthony Carter, Renaldo Blackman, Sheldon Williams
Coming In: Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Timofey Mozgov, Raymond Felton, 2014 draft pick + cash
Despite being on the opposite end of the trade that provided us with perhaps the deadline's biggest winner, the Nuggets came out of this in fairly good shape. They knew Melo wasn't going to re-sign with them, but also knew that they held all the cards in the negotiations because Melo wanted the extension money just as badly as a move to NY. This forced the Knicks to up their offer to ensure they would get their man rather than risk him taking the money to stay in Denver or allowing another team to swoop in with a better offer.
The Nuggets watched the disasters in Cleveland and Toronto when their stars walked away for nothing and they were determined to not allow that to happen to them. They were never going to get equal value for a player of Melo's caliber, but at least they got some good pieces in return. The deal also saves them a boatload of money, not just from the cash they receive from NY, but also because it puts them under the luxury tax.
New Jersey Nets
Going Out: Devin Harris, Derrick Favors, 2 first round draft picks + cash
Coming In: Deron Williams
What a coup pulled off by the Nets! All season long they had been in and out of the discussions for Carmelo Anthony. That plan didn't work out since Melo gave them no assurances of signing an extension with them, but at least they succeeded in driving up the price for the Knicks. They then turned a deal similar to the one they offered for Melo and used it to acquire Deron Williams, who arguably is a better player. Nothing against Harris, but Williams is a huge upgrade that is capable of carrying the team. He is the kind of star player the Nets were looking for to sell tickets when they move to Brooklyn in two years, something Favors or any of the draft picks they gave up are likely to become soon enough.
The problem with this deal for the Nets is that it comes with enormous risk. Williams can be a free agent in 2012 and is not able to sign an extension until this summer. The Nets made this trade without getting any assurances that Williams will even still be around when they move to Brooklyn. The new CBA (whenever it is eventually agreed upon) is expected to make it more attractive for players to remain with their current teams and may even include an NFL style franchise tag that allows teams to prevent their top player from leaving. So the risk may be less drastic than it currently appears, but the uncertainty of the situation makes it a risk nonetheless. If Williams does bolt after next season then the Nets would be big losers in this trade.
Minnesota Timberwolves:
Going out: Corey Brewer
Coming In: Anthony Randolph, Eddy Curry
The Wolves were included in the Melo deal to make the salary cap numbers work. In exchange for donating their cap space to accommodate Curry's expiring contract, they upgrade their bench by acquiring Randolph. The results so far would tempt many to consider him a bust, but Randolph is still young and has a high ceiling. He's going to a team with low expectations where he should finally be able to earn some playing time. This isn't the first time the Wolves have taken a risk on a hyped prospect that another team had given up on, and so far things have worked out well for them with Michael Beasley. Perhaps Randolph can turn things around and become a star like many once predicted he would. It's a low risk-high reward move.
Atlanta Hawks
Going out: Mike Bibby, Jordan Crawford, Maurice Evans, 2011 1st round draft pick
Coming In: Kirk Hinrich, Hilton Armstrong
If Atlanta is to have any hope of winning in the playoffs then they need to be able to stop speedy penetrating point guards like Rajon Rondo and Derek Rose. That's a role that Mike Bibby hasn't been able to get done for the past several years. So they replace him with a hard nosed defender in Hinrich that can cover either guard position.
The deal is pretty good for the Wizards too, as they will save some money (potentially even more if they buy out Bibby or Evans). They gained a draft pick from the Bulls last year by using their cap space to take on Hinrich's contract and now get to flip him for a promising rookie and another draft pick. Pretty savvy management by their GM.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Going Out: Jeff Green, Nenad Kristic, future 1st round draft pick (from Clippers)
Coming In: Kendrick Perkins, Nate Robinson
The Thunder have been hoarding assets and cap space while building around young players for years and they finally traded in some of their chips. Already one of the top teams in the West, the only thing holding OKC back from being a contender was their lack of toughness. They have plenty of shooters, but no interior presence. Perkins gives them the enforcer they need to defend against the big men in the West. He's exactly the type of player they need to improve a team that had slipped drastically on the defensive end this season after overachieving last year. In a separate trade they also picked up Nazr Mohammed, giving them a capable back-up and insurance policy in case Perkins struggles to stay healthy.
They give up a valuable player in Jeff Green, but one that wasn't really a good fit. Green is capable of playing either forward spot, but often got burned defensively against some of the more dominant power forwards. With Kevin Durant taking up most of the minutes at the other forward spot it forced Green into a role he was never really suited for. The Thunder can now give the starting spot and more minutes to Sergi Ibaka, who along with Perkins will form a formidable defensive front court. While Green may be a more talented player than Perkins, he's not a better fit for this team. Green will also be a restricted free agent this summer and the Thunder were unlikely to be willing to pay him when they have so many other young players due for extensions soon. The risk is that Perkins can also be a free agent, so they could potentially lose him after the season. If so then they gave up quite a bit to get him for only half a season, especially when you consider that any draft pick you have from the Clippers holds value the way that franchise has been lately.
I'm reluctant to put the Celtics in the Losers category for this deal, despite that many Boston fans are calling for the head of GM Danny Ainge after this shocking trade. More on them in a later article, but in short, this deal isn't bad for Boston either. They desperately needed a wing player and Green is better than anyone they expected to be able to get. He will allow them to ease up on the minutes for their aging big three to keep them fresh as we head towards the postseason. Losing Perkins will be hard to cope with, but he's barely played all season and the Celtics are still the top team in the East. When/if Shaq and Jermaine O'Neal can get healthy then they aren't in any worse shape up front then they have been all year. Perhaps even better when you consider that Kristic is an upgrade over rookie Semih Erdin. The Celtics also freed up 3 roster spots in separate trades, so you can't judge them on this trade until we know what veterans they bring in after players get bought out by teams looking to save some money.
Portland Trail Blazers
Going Out: Joel Przybill, Dante Cunningham, Sean Marks, 2 first round picks
Coming In: Gerald Wallace
The Blazers took advantage of the Bobcats need to cut salary and attempt to rebuild by getting a former All-Star while giving up only expiring contracts and some draft picks (one belonging to New Orleans) which aren't likely to be lottery picks. Wallace has declined a bit this year and is still owed $21 million over the next two seasons, but perhaps moving to a team that actually has a chance at the playoffs will revive him for the stretch run. With the rash of injuries the Blazers have suffered and the uncertainty of how much they will get out of Brandon Roy the rest of the way, adding a wing the caliber of Wallace is a big boost for this team.
Losers
Utah Jazz
Going out: Deron Williams
Coming In: Devin Harris, Derrick Favors, 2 first round draft picks + cash
This has panic move written all over it. It made sense for Denver to trade Melo because he was about to leave as a free agent, but Williams can't be a free agent until 2012. Why trade him this year? Coming into the season the Jazz appeared to be contenders. Maybe not championship contenders, but potentially in the top half of the West at least, which would give them a shot. Since then they've blown up the team by introducing a new head coach for the first time since Ronald Regan was president and trading away their best player.
There's nothing wrong with what Utah got in return. Harris is a big downgrade from Williams, but he's still a good player who was an All-Star a couple of years ago. Favors was the #3 overall pick in last years draft and is loaded with potential. His offensive game will take more time to come around, but he adds a defensive presence to a front court that was lacking on that end of the court. He should grow into a good compliment up front to the defensively challenged Al Jefferson and Paul Milsap. Plus they could potentially have three lottery picks (assuming the trade sinks them out of playoff contention). So the future isn't all bad.
The problem is that not only are none of the pieces they got back equal value for Williams, but there seemed to be no pressure for the team to make this deal now. In fact, nobody (including Williams) seemed to know it was coming until the last minute. If they kept Williams for this season they would still likely make the playoffs and would still have the chance to trade him at next year's deadline. You could argue that the Jazz could have gotten an even better deal next year, since the team trading for him could have the opportunity to work out a contract extension as part of the deal. Other teams may have been willing to give up even more if they knew they'd be keeping Williams past 2012.
LA Clippers
Going Out: Baron Davis, 2011 1st round draft pick
Coming In: Mo Williams, Jamario Moon
The Clippers paid a hefty price to rid themselves of Baron Davis. The former All-Star has a long history of injuries and unmotivated play when he's unhappy, so it's not surprising that they wanted to get rid of him. Mo Williams and Moon are decent enough assets to get back in return, even if they aren't long term solutions. However, the harsh pill to swallow for the Clippers is that they were forced to surrender their first round draft pick, which likely will be a high lottery pick.
This move was likely heavily influenced by Clippers owner Donald Sterling. He hasn't been shy this year of his frustration with Davis, as he's been very publicly critical of him. The move also saves the Clippers money in the long term, as Davis has more money and years left on his contract than the two players they got in return. Typical Sterling, doing his best to further de-rail a struggling franchise just as things seemed like they might be turning around.
For Cleveland, they will now have to deal with the headaches caused by Davis, who isn't likely to be happy about being traded to another losing team. Even with his contract he shouldn't impede much on their rebuilding efforts. If they can score a high lottery pick in the draft this year, to go along with their own high pick, it could go a long way in speeding up the recovery process in the wake of Lebron's departure.
LA Lakers
The Lakers make the losers list without even making a trade at the deadline. Actually, that's why they are on the list. They have struggled at times this year and many have questioned their chances at repeating as champions again this year. Everyone from Jerry West to Magic Johnson has publicly stated the Lakers desperately needed to shake things up, but instead they stood pat.
Sometimes the best trade is the ones that you don't make. I don't blame the Lakers for not pulling the trigger on a potential Bynum-Melo swap that was supposedly on the table. While Melo is clearly the better player, it's unclear how well he'd play alongside Kobe. One of the Lakers biggest advantages is their size, which they would have sacrificed in that deal. However, there are other deals they could have explored. Finding someone to take Ron Artest off their hands would have been a good start. If they could have convinced the Bobcats to take him for Gerald Wallace or Stephan Jackson then that would have been a huge help, but those talks fell apart. Even a smaller deal to upgrade their bench, especially at point guard, would have gone a long way towards helping the Lakers back to the Finals.
Houston Rockets
Going Out: Aaron Brooks, Shane Battier, Ish Smith
Coming In: Hasheem Thabeet, DeMarre Carroll, Goran Dragic, 2 first round picks
The deals they made weren't horrible, considering it saved them money and provided them with two decent draft picks. I rated them as Loser not because of what they did, but more of what they didn't do. They had a lot of assets and were willing to deal, they just couldn't find a willing trade partner. They were hoping to lure in a much bigger fish, but couldn't get anyone to bite. I'm surprised that nobody was willing to trade for Yao's expiring deal (mostly covered by insurance money). The Rockets have to feel disappointed that they weren't able to pull of a bigger deal that could help them get into the playoffs.
Other Notable Deals
New Orleans Hornets & Sacramento Kings
Going to Hornets: Carl Landry
Going to Kings: Marcus Thorton
This trade seems like a win-win for both teams. The Hornets are a playoff team that needed to add some depth to their thin frontcourt behind David West and Omeka Okafor. Landry is a gritty player that can rebound and score. He should thrive off the bench. Thorton broke out with a big second half as a rookie last year, but his lapses in defense have kept him out of the rotation for the most part this year. Despite his talent, he was expendable to fit a bigger need.
The Kings are going nowhere this year anyway and Landry was likely to leave after the season. They can take the risk on Thorton's upside. He could prove to be a valuable insurance policy to Tyreke Evans, who is out for the next several weeks with a foot injury. They can give Thorton a test run the rest of the year to see how he fits in and retain him as a restricted free agent relatively cheaply if it works out.
Golden State Warriors & New Jersey Nets
Going to Warriors: Troy Murphy, 2nd round draft pick
Going to Nets: Dan Gadzuric, Brandon Wright
The Nets haven't been able to find a spot for Murphy in their rotation all season, so it's no surprise that he got traded. For the Warriors this is a salary dump move. Murphy will be bought out and free to join a contending team.
Now that the dust has settled down, let's sort through the rubble to determine which teams came out winners and which were losers in these deals.
Winners
New York Knicks:
Going out: Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Timofey Mozgov, Raymond Felton, Anthony Randolph, Eddy Curry's expiring
Coming In: Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Anthony Carter, Renaldo Blackman, Sheldon Williams, Corey Brewer
After months of speculation, the Knicks finally got their man. They now have a second legitimate super star to pair with Amare Stoudemire that they can attempt to build around to make the team into a contender.
Despite that they appear to have gutted their team, they actually didn't really give up that much. The majority of the money used to match contracts comes from Curry, who will likely never play another game. If they weren't able to trade for Melo and attempted to go after him in free agency then they would be forced to renounce their rights to restricted free agent Wilson Chandler, so they would have lost him either way. Felton is having a career year, but Billups is the kind of savvy veteran they will need in the playoffs. Felton wasn't going to be their PG of the future anyway, as they have their sights set on Chris Paul in 2012. Billups is a better fit until then. Mozgov's 4 points and 3 rebounds per game were easy to let go of and Randolph still hasn't lived up to his potential. Neither player was a key part of Mike D'Antoni's short rotation.
Gallinari is the biggest loss for the Knicks, but he plays the same position as Melo. The Knicks have enough trouble on defense as it is without attempting to play the two of them together, so despite his upside he became expendable because Melo is a clear upgrade. The trade also weakens their depth, which is less of a concern for them since they generally only play 8 guys anyway. The area their lack of depth could come back to haunt them is at PG. Felton was playing over 38 minutes per game, which is a number they can't hope for the older Billups to come close to unless they plan to run him into the ground. That likely means giving more minutes to their weak bench players.
The Knicks currently hold the 6th seed in the East. With only 27 games remaining they have no chance at one of the top seeds in the conference. They should improve enough to easily hold other teams below them, but it will be a challenge to move up. They have a chance at catching Atlanta, despite being 3 games back in the loss column, due to the Hawks having one of the more brutal schedules for the remainder of the season. It's unlikely that they have time to go any higher than that unless Orlando suffers an epic collapse. We also have to assume that Melo and Billups will take some time to mesh with their new teammates. We saw the Miami trio get off to a slow start this season, and James and Wade are better passes and less selfish players than Melo/Stoudemire. It may take them the rest of the season to really gel as a team. What this trade does do is make them a more dangerous first round playoff opponent. They still probably won't get out of the first round, but they are now the team that none of the top Eastern contenders wants to have to face in the first round.
The real winner in this deal is Carmelo Anthony. He gets to go to the team he wants to play for and gets his money too (he agreed to the three year, $65 million extension as part of the trade, something he would not have gotten if he became a free agent).
Denver Nuggets
Going out: Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Anthony Carter, Renaldo Blackman, Sheldon Williams
Coming In: Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Timofey Mozgov, Raymond Felton, 2014 draft pick + cash
Despite being on the opposite end of the trade that provided us with perhaps the deadline's biggest winner, the Nuggets came out of this in fairly good shape. They knew Melo wasn't going to re-sign with them, but also knew that they held all the cards in the negotiations because Melo wanted the extension money just as badly as a move to NY. This forced the Knicks to up their offer to ensure they would get their man rather than risk him taking the money to stay in Denver or allowing another team to swoop in with a better offer.
The Nuggets watched the disasters in Cleveland and Toronto when their stars walked away for nothing and they were determined to not allow that to happen to them. They were never going to get equal value for a player of Melo's caliber, but at least they got some good pieces in return. The deal also saves them a boatload of money, not just from the cash they receive from NY, but also because it puts them under the luxury tax.
New Jersey Nets
Going Out: Devin Harris, Derrick Favors, 2 first round draft picks + cash
Coming In: Deron Williams
What a coup pulled off by the Nets! All season long they had been in and out of the discussions for Carmelo Anthony. That plan didn't work out since Melo gave them no assurances of signing an extension with them, but at least they succeeded in driving up the price for the Knicks. They then turned a deal similar to the one they offered for Melo and used it to acquire Deron Williams, who arguably is a better player. Nothing against Harris, but Williams is a huge upgrade that is capable of carrying the team. He is the kind of star player the Nets were looking for to sell tickets when they move to Brooklyn in two years, something Favors or any of the draft picks they gave up are likely to become soon enough.
The problem with this deal for the Nets is that it comes with enormous risk. Williams can be a free agent in 2012 and is not able to sign an extension until this summer. The Nets made this trade without getting any assurances that Williams will even still be around when they move to Brooklyn. The new CBA (whenever it is eventually agreed upon) is expected to make it more attractive for players to remain with their current teams and may even include an NFL style franchise tag that allows teams to prevent their top player from leaving. So the risk may be less drastic than it currently appears, but the uncertainty of the situation makes it a risk nonetheless. If Williams does bolt after next season then the Nets would be big losers in this trade.
Minnesota Timberwolves:
Going out: Corey Brewer
Coming In: Anthony Randolph, Eddy Curry
The Wolves were included in the Melo deal to make the salary cap numbers work. In exchange for donating their cap space to accommodate Curry's expiring contract, they upgrade their bench by acquiring Randolph. The results so far would tempt many to consider him a bust, but Randolph is still young and has a high ceiling. He's going to a team with low expectations where he should finally be able to earn some playing time. This isn't the first time the Wolves have taken a risk on a hyped prospect that another team had given up on, and so far things have worked out well for them with Michael Beasley. Perhaps Randolph can turn things around and become a star like many once predicted he would. It's a low risk-high reward move.
Atlanta Hawks
Going out: Mike Bibby, Jordan Crawford, Maurice Evans, 2011 1st round draft pick
Coming In: Kirk Hinrich, Hilton Armstrong
If Atlanta is to have any hope of winning in the playoffs then they need to be able to stop speedy penetrating point guards like Rajon Rondo and Derek Rose. That's a role that Mike Bibby hasn't been able to get done for the past several years. So they replace him with a hard nosed defender in Hinrich that can cover either guard position.
The deal is pretty good for the Wizards too, as they will save some money (potentially even more if they buy out Bibby or Evans). They gained a draft pick from the Bulls last year by using their cap space to take on Hinrich's contract and now get to flip him for a promising rookie and another draft pick. Pretty savvy management by their GM.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Going Out: Jeff Green, Nenad Kristic, future 1st round draft pick (from Clippers)
Coming In: Kendrick Perkins, Nate Robinson
The Thunder have been hoarding assets and cap space while building around young players for years and they finally traded in some of their chips. Already one of the top teams in the West, the only thing holding OKC back from being a contender was their lack of toughness. They have plenty of shooters, but no interior presence. Perkins gives them the enforcer they need to defend against the big men in the West. He's exactly the type of player they need to improve a team that had slipped drastically on the defensive end this season after overachieving last year. In a separate trade they also picked up Nazr Mohammed, giving them a capable back-up and insurance policy in case Perkins struggles to stay healthy.
They give up a valuable player in Jeff Green, but one that wasn't really a good fit. Green is capable of playing either forward spot, but often got burned defensively against some of the more dominant power forwards. With Kevin Durant taking up most of the minutes at the other forward spot it forced Green into a role he was never really suited for. The Thunder can now give the starting spot and more minutes to Sergi Ibaka, who along with Perkins will form a formidable defensive front court. While Green may be a more talented player than Perkins, he's not a better fit for this team. Green will also be a restricted free agent this summer and the Thunder were unlikely to be willing to pay him when they have so many other young players due for extensions soon. The risk is that Perkins can also be a free agent, so they could potentially lose him after the season. If so then they gave up quite a bit to get him for only half a season, especially when you consider that any draft pick you have from the Clippers holds value the way that franchise has been lately.
I'm reluctant to put the Celtics in the Losers category for this deal, despite that many Boston fans are calling for the head of GM Danny Ainge after this shocking trade. More on them in a later article, but in short, this deal isn't bad for Boston either. They desperately needed a wing player and Green is better than anyone they expected to be able to get. He will allow them to ease up on the minutes for their aging big three to keep them fresh as we head towards the postseason. Losing Perkins will be hard to cope with, but he's barely played all season and the Celtics are still the top team in the East. When/if Shaq and Jermaine O'Neal can get healthy then they aren't in any worse shape up front then they have been all year. Perhaps even better when you consider that Kristic is an upgrade over rookie Semih Erdin. The Celtics also freed up 3 roster spots in separate trades, so you can't judge them on this trade until we know what veterans they bring in after players get bought out by teams looking to save some money.
Portland Trail Blazers
Going Out: Joel Przybill, Dante Cunningham, Sean Marks, 2 first round picks
Coming In: Gerald Wallace
The Blazers took advantage of the Bobcats need to cut salary and attempt to rebuild by getting a former All-Star while giving up only expiring contracts and some draft picks (one belonging to New Orleans) which aren't likely to be lottery picks. Wallace has declined a bit this year and is still owed $21 million over the next two seasons, but perhaps moving to a team that actually has a chance at the playoffs will revive him for the stretch run. With the rash of injuries the Blazers have suffered and the uncertainty of how much they will get out of Brandon Roy the rest of the way, adding a wing the caliber of Wallace is a big boost for this team.
Losers
Utah Jazz
Going out: Deron Williams
Coming In: Devin Harris, Derrick Favors, 2 first round draft picks + cash
This has panic move written all over it. It made sense for Denver to trade Melo because he was about to leave as a free agent, but Williams can't be a free agent until 2012. Why trade him this year? Coming into the season the Jazz appeared to be contenders. Maybe not championship contenders, but potentially in the top half of the West at least, which would give them a shot. Since then they've blown up the team by introducing a new head coach for the first time since Ronald Regan was president and trading away their best player.
There's nothing wrong with what Utah got in return. Harris is a big downgrade from Williams, but he's still a good player who was an All-Star a couple of years ago. Favors was the #3 overall pick in last years draft and is loaded with potential. His offensive game will take more time to come around, but he adds a defensive presence to a front court that was lacking on that end of the court. He should grow into a good compliment up front to the defensively challenged Al Jefferson and Paul Milsap. Plus they could potentially have three lottery picks (assuming the trade sinks them out of playoff contention). So the future isn't all bad.
The problem is that not only are none of the pieces they got back equal value for Williams, but there seemed to be no pressure for the team to make this deal now. In fact, nobody (including Williams) seemed to know it was coming until the last minute. If they kept Williams for this season they would still likely make the playoffs and would still have the chance to trade him at next year's deadline. You could argue that the Jazz could have gotten an even better deal next year, since the team trading for him could have the opportunity to work out a contract extension as part of the deal. Other teams may have been willing to give up even more if they knew they'd be keeping Williams past 2012.
LA Clippers
Going Out: Baron Davis, 2011 1st round draft pick
Coming In: Mo Williams, Jamario Moon
The Clippers paid a hefty price to rid themselves of Baron Davis. The former All-Star has a long history of injuries and unmotivated play when he's unhappy, so it's not surprising that they wanted to get rid of him. Mo Williams and Moon are decent enough assets to get back in return, even if they aren't long term solutions. However, the harsh pill to swallow for the Clippers is that they were forced to surrender their first round draft pick, which likely will be a high lottery pick.
This move was likely heavily influenced by Clippers owner Donald Sterling. He hasn't been shy this year of his frustration with Davis, as he's been very publicly critical of him. The move also saves the Clippers money in the long term, as Davis has more money and years left on his contract than the two players they got in return. Typical Sterling, doing his best to further de-rail a struggling franchise just as things seemed like they might be turning around.
For Cleveland, they will now have to deal with the headaches caused by Davis, who isn't likely to be happy about being traded to another losing team. Even with his contract he shouldn't impede much on their rebuilding efforts. If they can score a high lottery pick in the draft this year, to go along with their own high pick, it could go a long way in speeding up the recovery process in the wake of Lebron's departure.
LA Lakers
The Lakers make the losers list without even making a trade at the deadline. Actually, that's why they are on the list. They have struggled at times this year and many have questioned their chances at repeating as champions again this year. Everyone from Jerry West to Magic Johnson has publicly stated the Lakers desperately needed to shake things up, but instead they stood pat.
Sometimes the best trade is the ones that you don't make. I don't blame the Lakers for not pulling the trigger on a potential Bynum-Melo swap that was supposedly on the table. While Melo is clearly the better player, it's unclear how well he'd play alongside Kobe. One of the Lakers biggest advantages is their size, which they would have sacrificed in that deal. However, there are other deals they could have explored. Finding someone to take Ron Artest off their hands would have been a good start. If they could have convinced the Bobcats to take him for Gerald Wallace or Stephan Jackson then that would have been a huge help, but those talks fell apart. Even a smaller deal to upgrade their bench, especially at point guard, would have gone a long way towards helping the Lakers back to the Finals.
Houston Rockets
Going Out: Aaron Brooks, Shane Battier, Ish Smith
Coming In: Hasheem Thabeet, DeMarre Carroll, Goran Dragic, 2 first round picks
The deals they made weren't horrible, considering it saved them money and provided them with two decent draft picks. I rated them as Loser not because of what they did, but more of what they didn't do. They had a lot of assets and were willing to deal, they just couldn't find a willing trade partner. They were hoping to lure in a much bigger fish, but couldn't get anyone to bite. I'm surprised that nobody was willing to trade for Yao's expiring deal (mostly covered by insurance money). The Rockets have to feel disappointed that they weren't able to pull of a bigger deal that could help them get into the playoffs.
Other Notable Deals
New Orleans Hornets & Sacramento Kings
Going to Hornets: Carl Landry
Going to Kings: Marcus Thorton
This trade seems like a win-win for both teams. The Hornets are a playoff team that needed to add some depth to their thin frontcourt behind David West and Omeka Okafor. Landry is a gritty player that can rebound and score. He should thrive off the bench. Thorton broke out with a big second half as a rookie last year, but his lapses in defense have kept him out of the rotation for the most part this year. Despite his talent, he was expendable to fit a bigger need.
The Kings are going nowhere this year anyway and Landry was likely to leave after the season. They can take the risk on Thorton's upside. He could prove to be a valuable insurance policy to Tyreke Evans, who is out for the next several weeks with a foot injury. They can give Thorton a test run the rest of the year to see how he fits in and retain him as a restricted free agent relatively cheaply if it works out.
Golden State Warriors & New Jersey Nets
Going to Warriors: Troy Murphy, 2nd round draft pick
Going to Nets: Dan Gadzuric, Brandon Wright
The Nets haven't been able to find a spot for Murphy in their rotation all season, so it's no surprise that he got traded. For the Warriors this is a salary dump move. Murphy will be bought out and free to join a contending team.
Thursday, February 17, 2011
The Pujols Problem
How much is too much? When does a deal stretch a team's financial limits beyond the point where it no longer is in the team's best interests? These are the types of questions that the St. Louis Cardinals have been asking themselves for a while now. It's hardly a matter that can be taken lightly and one that requires much thought and attention. Yet the Cardinals may have doomed themselves by thinking too much and for too long while stretching beyond their time limits. Now the window may be closing - possibly forever.
The problem the team faces is with re-signing their super star player, Albert Pujols, who's contract will expire after this season. Pujols made it clear that he had no desire to negotiate during the season and had set a deadline for a deal to be reached. Otherwise he had every intention of playing out his final year on his contract before becoming a free agent. That deadline was noon yesterday, and a deal has yet to be agreed upon.
It's unclear how far apart the sides are at this point, but it's rumored that Pujols is looking for a deal that would pay him $30 million per year for the next 10 years. The $300 million total would eclipse the $275 million, 10 year deal that Alex Rodriguez signed with the Yankees in 2008, giving Pujols the largest contract on MLB history.
Is Pujols worth that much? Well, if anyone is worth it, it's Pujols. He's undeniably the best player in the game today, and arguably could end up being amongst the best players ever. He's the only player in MLB history to hit more than 400 HRs and 800 Extra Base Hits in the first 10 years of his career. He's averaged a .331 Batting Avg., .425 OBP, .624 SLG, 42 Home Runs, and 128 RBIs per season in his career. Those are MVP caliber numbers for most players, but for Pujols it's just a typical year.
His value is tied to more than just what he can do with his bat. He's one of the top fielding first basemen in the NL, something that most of the top sluggers at his position can't claim. He's also an above average base runner, especially for his position, having stolen an average of 15 bases over the past two seasons while only being caught stealing 4 times in each of those years (80% success rate). Over the past decade he has accumulated a WAR of 83.8, which makes him only the second player in history to have a WAR over 80 over that same time span (Ted Williams is the all time leader).
Those are some impressive statistics, but Pujols means much more to the Cardinals than what can be found in a box score. He's the face of their franchise. He's spent his entire career in St. Louis and become deeply tied to the fanbase and community. He has led the team to two World Series, winning one of them. The Cardinals have been a contender in the NL for the past decade because of Pujols. Without him the team would be relatively mediocre.
So why would they let him go? Well, to be fair, they aren't exactly pointing to the exit. They want to keep him and undoubtedly will still continue to try even if he does reach free agency, but the price has to be right. $30 million a year may seem like an unreasonable amount, but for everything Pujols brings to the table it's not quite as absurd as you might think. It's commonly theorized that each win a player earns his team compared to a replacement level player (WAR) is worth between $4-$5 million. Pujols has averaged over 8 WAR per season in his career according to FanGraphs.com, meaning that in his average season his value makes him worth between $32-40 million a year. With last year's 7.4 WAR, FanGraphs valued him at $33.3 million. So a $30 million price tag isn't unreasonable if he sustains a similar level of production.
The problem isn't with the yearly salary, it's with the number of years. 10 years is a long time for a team to commit to one player, especially one that is on the wrong side of 30 years old. Pujols is officially listed as being 31 years old, but it's rumored that he may be older than that. It's not all that uncommon for players from other countries, such as the Dominican Republic, to lie about their age. This is all speculation of course, but it's a risk to consider for any team looking to give him that long of a contract. Players tend to decline as they enter their mid-30's and most retire soon after. A 10 year deal would keep Pujols under contract until he is at least 41 years old (depending on what age you believe he is now). Even if he continues to play that long, it is unprecedented for a player to keep producing at this elite level at that age. It's not unreasonable to expect Pujols to remain amongst the top players in the game for several more years, but not another decade. Anyone willing to commit to that long of a contract will have to be comfortable with the last several years of that contract essentially being a sunk cost, as the production he offers in the twilight of his career will no longer be worth the high salary.
A mid-market team like St. Louis may not be able to afford to have such a high portion of their payroll budget tied up to one player, especially when that player is no longer able to carry the team. Unlike the Yankees, who can afford to overpay Derek Jeter to reward him for his past contributions and legacy, it makes business sense for the Cardinals to offer Pujols a contract that will primarily be based upon what he will contribute over the course of this next contract, not the previous contract. Because their budget is more limited than some of the other top teams, extending Pujols at that amount per year may mean they are forced to part ways with some of their other high priced veterans, such as Chris Carpenter. It also may mean that they may run into problems in the future signing some of their young stars, such as Colby Rasmus. Giving in to his contract demands would keep the Cardinals on the short list of contenders for the next several years, but in doing so they would be mortgaging their future, as they would find it very difficult to compete in the later years of this contract when so much money is tied to one player that is no longer producing at a high level.
But who says they have to give into his demands? Even if he does follow through on his threat to test free agency, it doesn't eliminate the Cardinals from keeping him. They aren't comfortable handing out that large of a deal, but would anyone else do it? Every team in the league would like to add Pujols to their lineup, but perhaps not at that price. The usual suspects with big payrolls, such as the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies, are already locked into long term big money deals with elite first basemen. The Phillies don't have the luxury of simply moving Ryan Howard to DH, and the two AL rivals have first basemen that are equal, if not better, to Pujols with the glove, meaning if he were to join either team it'd likely be as a DH. That's far too much money to commit to a player who doesn't play the defensive side of the game.
So if we can likely rule out those three teams, who else could be in the mix?
It would be in the Cardinal's best interest to somehow get this worked out. Perhaps they can't afford the contract Pujols is hoping for, but the franchise can't afford to lose a player of his caliber. It would be a devastating loss, perhaps even worse than when LeBron James left Cleveland (although I'd expect Pujols to have a much classier exit if he does leave). He refuses to be traded, so losing him would only result in a couple of extra draft picks. There would be no replacing a player of his caliber.
I expect that when this is all said and done Pujols will remain in St. Louis. The $30 million price tag would be easier to swallow if it were for 7 years, but it may take at least 8 years to get this done. Or they could consider adding a couple extra years, as many as 9 or 10 total, as long as the average annual salary drops to something like $25 million. Either an 8 year, $240 million deal or a 10 year, $250 million deal would be fair. Unfortunately that may not be enough for Pujols because it still falls short of the A-Rod deal. Forget that the Yankees may already be regretting giving A-Rod that deal as signs of his decline are already apparent. Players don't think like that. Another player got that contract and Pujols considers himself to be the superior player, therefore he wants the larger contract. Nevermind that he'd never spend all that money in three lifetimes, it's all about the respect and pride of the game's best player getting the biggest deal ever.
So to make everyone happy, how about this: 9 years, $276 million ($30.6/year). That puts it $1 million above the A-Rod deal, so he'd still have the highest contract, as well as the highest average annual salary. The deal could also be heavily front-loaded, so they are paying him big money for his productive years now, while not crushing their future with a bloated deal near the end of the contract.
It's still probably more money and years than the Cardinals would like to pay, and obviously less than Pujols expects, but this is about compromise. Forget about unofficial deadlines, egos and hurt feelings. This deal works for both sides, so how about it guys - let's get this done!
The problem the team faces is with re-signing their super star player, Albert Pujols, who's contract will expire after this season. Pujols made it clear that he had no desire to negotiate during the season and had set a deadline for a deal to be reached. Otherwise he had every intention of playing out his final year on his contract before becoming a free agent. That deadline was noon yesterday, and a deal has yet to be agreed upon.
It's unclear how far apart the sides are at this point, but it's rumored that Pujols is looking for a deal that would pay him $30 million per year for the next 10 years. The $300 million total would eclipse the $275 million, 10 year deal that Alex Rodriguez signed with the Yankees in 2008, giving Pujols the largest contract on MLB history.
Is Pujols worth that much? Well, if anyone is worth it, it's Pujols. He's undeniably the best player in the game today, and arguably could end up being amongst the best players ever. He's the only player in MLB history to hit more than 400 HRs and 800 Extra Base Hits in the first 10 years of his career. He's averaged a .331 Batting Avg., .425 OBP, .624 SLG, 42 Home Runs, and 128 RBIs per season in his career. Those are MVP caliber numbers for most players, but for Pujols it's just a typical year.
His value is tied to more than just what he can do with his bat. He's one of the top fielding first basemen in the NL, something that most of the top sluggers at his position can't claim. He's also an above average base runner, especially for his position, having stolen an average of 15 bases over the past two seasons while only being caught stealing 4 times in each of those years (80% success rate). Over the past decade he has accumulated a WAR of 83.8, which makes him only the second player in history to have a WAR over 80 over that same time span (Ted Williams is the all time leader).
Those are some impressive statistics, but Pujols means much more to the Cardinals than what can be found in a box score. He's the face of their franchise. He's spent his entire career in St. Louis and become deeply tied to the fanbase and community. He has led the team to two World Series, winning one of them. The Cardinals have been a contender in the NL for the past decade because of Pujols. Without him the team would be relatively mediocre.
So why would they let him go? Well, to be fair, they aren't exactly pointing to the exit. They want to keep him and undoubtedly will still continue to try even if he does reach free agency, but the price has to be right. $30 million a year may seem like an unreasonable amount, but for everything Pujols brings to the table it's not quite as absurd as you might think. It's commonly theorized that each win a player earns his team compared to a replacement level player (WAR) is worth between $4-$5 million. Pujols has averaged over 8 WAR per season in his career according to FanGraphs.com, meaning that in his average season his value makes him worth between $32-40 million a year. With last year's 7.4 WAR, FanGraphs valued him at $33.3 million. So a $30 million price tag isn't unreasonable if he sustains a similar level of production.
The problem isn't with the yearly salary, it's with the number of years. 10 years is a long time for a team to commit to one player, especially one that is on the wrong side of 30 years old. Pujols is officially listed as being 31 years old, but it's rumored that he may be older than that. It's not all that uncommon for players from other countries, such as the Dominican Republic, to lie about their age. This is all speculation of course, but it's a risk to consider for any team looking to give him that long of a contract. Players tend to decline as they enter their mid-30's and most retire soon after. A 10 year deal would keep Pujols under contract until he is at least 41 years old (depending on what age you believe he is now). Even if he continues to play that long, it is unprecedented for a player to keep producing at this elite level at that age. It's not unreasonable to expect Pujols to remain amongst the top players in the game for several more years, but not another decade. Anyone willing to commit to that long of a contract will have to be comfortable with the last several years of that contract essentially being a sunk cost, as the production he offers in the twilight of his career will no longer be worth the high salary.
A mid-market team like St. Louis may not be able to afford to have such a high portion of their payroll budget tied up to one player, especially when that player is no longer able to carry the team. Unlike the Yankees, who can afford to overpay Derek Jeter to reward him for his past contributions and legacy, it makes business sense for the Cardinals to offer Pujols a contract that will primarily be based upon what he will contribute over the course of this next contract, not the previous contract. Because their budget is more limited than some of the other top teams, extending Pujols at that amount per year may mean they are forced to part ways with some of their other high priced veterans, such as Chris Carpenter. It also may mean that they may run into problems in the future signing some of their young stars, such as Colby Rasmus. Giving in to his contract demands would keep the Cardinals on the short list of contenders for the next several years, but in doing so they would be mortgaging their future, as they would find it very difficult to compete in the later years of this contract when so much money is tied to one player that is no longer producing at a high level.
But who says they have to give into his demands? Even if he does follow through on his threat to test free agency, it doesn't eliminate the Cardinals from keeping him. They aren't comfortable handing out that large of a deal, but would anyone else do it? Every team in the league would like to add Pujols to their lineup, but perhaps not at that price. The usual suspects with big payrolls, such as the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies, are already locked into long term big money deals with elite first basemen. The Phillies don't have the luxury of simply moving Ryan Howard to DH, and the two AL rivals have first basemen that are equal, if not better, to Pujols with the glove, meaning if he were to join either team it'd likely be as a DH. That's far too much money to commit to a player who doesn't play the defensive side of the game.
So if we can likely rule out those three teams, who else could be in the mix?
- Chicago Cubs: They would like nothing more than to stick it to their division rivals by stealing away their top player. However, this franchise has been a mess for years and is loaded with bad contracts. They've been able to shed some of them so far, but have a lot of work to do if they hope to be able to afford Pujols.
- LA Angels: They struck out this off-season, but could ease some of the pain by getting involved with the Pujols talks. Supposedly they still have money to spend, but haven't been able to get anyone to take it the past few years. Unfortunately they have a few holes left to fill and 1B isn't one of them. Their best hitter already plays that position. They'd have to be willing to explore trade options for Kendry Morales to help fill those other holes if they have any intention of going after Pujols, and that plan only works if Morales can come back strong from last year's freak leg injury.
- LA Dodgers: The team has always been high on James Loney, but Pujols is a clear upgrade. Loney is a good hitter, but lacks the power to play a corner position. The McCourts divorce saga would have to get resolved or the team would have to be sold before the Dodgers could think about giving out this big of a contract. That's uncertain to be resolved in time to give them a shot at Pujols.
- Washington Nationals: They were met with a lot of criticism this off-season for overpaying Jayson Werth. Do they really have enough money left over for Pujols, especially when they know they will eventually have to pay big money to keep their young core (Zimmerman, Strasberg, Harper, Storen) together?
- NY Mets: Despite the big market, the Mets haven't been in a big spending mode lately. They have too many bad contracts that need to come off the books before they can commit to another large deal. Their ownership group is still struggling to recover financially from the Madolf scandal and some of their past mistakes on big contracts may make them hesitant to sign off on another risky long term deal.
- Texas Rangers: They have new owners that are determined to be winners and have some money laying around from the cash Cliff Lee was unwilling to take. Beltre took a big chunk of that money, so it remains to be seen how much these new owners are willing to expand payroll. He would be a good fit for their team, but they need to unload Michael Young's contract and make sure they have enough set aside for the future of their own young stars before getting involved in this discussion.
It would be in the Cardinal's best interest to somehow get this worked out. Perhaps they can't afford the contract Pujols is hoping for, but the franchise can't afford to lose a player of his caliber. It would be a devastating loss, perhaps even worse than when LeBron James left Cleveland (although I'd expect Pujols to have a much classier exit if he does leave). He refuses to be traded, so losing him would only result in a couple of extra draft picks. There would be no replacing a player of his caliber.
I expect that when this is all said and done Pujols will remain in St. Louis. The $30 million price tag would be easier to swallow if it were for 7 years, but it may take at least 8 years to get this done. Or they could consider adding a couple extra years, as many as 9 or 10 total, as long as the average annual salary drops to something like $25 million. Either an 8 year, $240 million deal or a 10 year, $250 million deal would be fair. Unfortunately that may not be enough for Pujols because it still falls short of the A-Rod deal. Forget that the Yankees may already be regretting giving A-Rod that deal as signs of his decline are already apparent. Players don't think like that. Another player got that contract and Pujols considers himself to be the superior player, therefore he wants the larger contract. Nevermind that he'd never spend all that money in three lifetimes, it's all about the respect and pride of the game's best player getting the biggest deal ever.
So to make everyone happy, how about this: 9 years, $276 million ($30.6/year). That puts it $1 million above the A-Rod deal, so he'd still have the highest contract, as well as the highest average annual salary. The deal could also be heavily front-loaded, so they are paying him big money for his productive years now, while not crushing their future with a bloated deal near the end of the contract.
It's still probably more money and years than the Cardinals would like to pay, and obviously less than Pujols expects, but this is about compromise. Forget about unofficial deadlines, egos and hurt feelings. This deal works for both sides, so how about it guys - let's get this done!
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
Melo Drama
The NBA trade deadline is fast approaching and no player has made more headlines regarding trade rumors this season than Carmelo Anthony. The All-Star forward from the Nuggets has an early opt out clause in his contract that can make him a free agent after this season and it's no secret that he intends to leave Denver.
There are plenty of pros and cons for everyone involved, which has turned this into a very complicated issue. Let's break down the different aspects of a potential trade.
Why does Melo want to leave Denver?
Anthony has his eyes set on the bright lights of New York. He wants to be on a big stage and no other city can cast him into the spotlight more than NYC. There he would have the opportunity to team up with his buddy Amare Stoudemire to attempt to form their own group of super friends to rival the trio in Miami that was formed over the summer. The Knicks also run a player friendly system through Mike D'Antoni's up-tempo offense, which would be appealing to a high volume shooter like Melo. It also doesn't hurt that his wife is pushing for a move to New York to help further her own career.
When you look around the league at contending teams it's clear that in this league you need to have more than one super star in order to be a contender. Teams like the Celtics, Lakers and Heat all have multiple All-Star caliber players. As great a player as Carmelo Anthony is, he knows he's not winning a title in Denver. He has a nice supporting cast with players like Nene and Afflalo, but neither of them will be a super star, and Chauncey Billups is on the decline. The window in Denver has closed and Melo has decided that it's time to move on. After seeing players like LeBron, Wade and Bosh team up together this season, Melo is determined to take a similar short cut to land on a contending team.
Why would Denver want to trade him?
Because they saw how the departures of LeBron and Bosh devastated their former teams when they were allowed to walk away as free agents while getting nothing in return. The Nuggets are determined not to let that happen to them. If they are going to lose their star player then they are going to want to get some young players and draft picks back in return. They would also like to dump some of their bad contracts on any team looking to acquire Melo, with the goal of getting under the luxury tax line, which would save them millions of dollars.
Would Melo consider staying in Denver?
Here is where it gets interesting, because Denver actually has more leverage in these trade talks than people think. A common misconception is that teams will try to low ball the Nuggets because they think they are desperate, but that's not necessarily the case. There is still a 3 year, $65 million extension from Denver on the table that would be awfully hard to walk away from. Ideally, Melo would like to sign the extension and then be traded. That way he gets his big money contract and also moves to his team of choice. The problem is that the Nuggets aren't foolish enough to be held hostage in these talks, so they aren't going to accept an offer that doesn't benefit them. If they don't receive a serious offer to their liking then they could decide to keep him for the rest of this season and hope that he changes his mind by signing the extension to stay with them after all.
Why should the Knicks give up anything when they can sign Melo as a free agent?
For a team like the Knicks that is looking to trade for Melo, they have to play along to come up with a package that appeals to Denver because they can't count on getting him as a free agent, no matter how much Melo claims he's only interested in playing in New York.
One of the biggest obstacles in these trade talks is the uncertainty of the collective bargaining agreement, which expires after this season. A new agreement has yet to be reached, which means we potentially could be headed for a lockout next season. Even if a new agreement is reached in time, it's widely believed that it will include a lower salary cap limit, which may also include a hard cap that prevents teams from overspending into the luxury tax. This would make it more difficult for a team like the Knicks to afford giving another max contract to a star like Melo when they already have so much money committed to Stoudemire. Rumor has it there may even be a franchise tag option, similar to what the NFL uses, which would allow teams to prevent a star player from leaving (we can thank LeBron for forcing the league to consider that idea). The new agreement is also likely to be less friendly to player contracts, meaning that the extension Melo is able to sign now is almost certainly more money than he will be able to make as a free agent. If a trade can't be worked out before the deadline this month then Melo is risking millions of dollars if he refuses to sign the extension.
The other thing to keep in mind is that the Knicks really aren't giving up much, at least under the three team deal that is currently on the table, which includes the Minnesota Timberwolves. In this proposed deal, the Knicks would send Anthony Randolph to the Timberwolves, along with Eddy Curry's expiring contract. They would then send Wilson Chandler to the Nuggests, who would also receive Corey Brewer and a first round draft pick from Minnesota. Denver and Minnesota may require additional pieces, draft picks or cash to be included to finalize such a deal, but it doesn't sound like that will include anything the Knicks aren't willing to part with the get Anthony. Curry's bloated contract covers a lot of the salary requirements and he doesn't even play. Randolph is loaded with potential but currently is not a key part of their rotation. Chandler is the only real loss to the Knicks rotation. He's having a break out season and still has more upside, but Melo is still a clear upgrade and would take his spot in the rotation. Chandler will be a restricted free agent after this season, and in order to sign Melo as a free agent they would need to renounce their rights to Chandler because they can't afford both. If signing Melo would mean losing Chandler anyway then trading him away now isn't a big loss. If the Knicks can pull off this trade without having to sacrifice Danillo Gallinari or Landry Fields then this deal becomes a steal for them. Even if one of those two needs to be included, the Knicks still end up ahead. Getting a trade done now, even if it means giving up some expendable assets, is a much wiser choice than gambling that Melo won't cave in and accept more money to stay in Denver.
What are the other teams that could get involved?
New Jersey: The Nets supposedly pulled out of trade talks last month, but this could be a savvy negotiating move by Russian billionaire owner Mikhail Prokhorov to regain control of the discussions. Their package centered around promising rookie Derek Favors is still by far the best offer Denver has been given thus far. Melo has been non-committal as to whether he would sign an extension to accept a trade to New Jersey, but with the team expected to move to Brooklyn within two years, the Nets may be an appealing option still. They were clearly aggravated by how negotiations were going and the fact that so much of it became public, which caused them to back out. Don't count them out to sneak under the radar and quietly pull off a deadline deal that would trump anything else Denver has been offered.
LA Lakers: It's unclear how serious the offer is, or if it's more a matter of people blowing smoke to gain leverage, but supposedly the Lakers and Nuggets have discussed the possibility of a swap between Carmelo Anthony and Andrew Bynum. For this to make sense for Denver there would almost certainly have to be other players involved to allow them to save some money in the deal. Bynum has shown flashes of being a dominant big man, but also has some huge injury question marks. He also doesn't seem to be a good fit next to Nene, so trading for Bynum would essentially mean they should be prepared to start shopping Nene as well, or else see him walk away after this season.
For the Lakers, it's a huge risk that may not be worth taking for them either. Melo is a high volume scorer and is essentially a lesser version of Kobe. We saw Lebron and Wade struggle to co-exist early on in Miami this season. Melo and Kobe would inevitably struggle through some initial growing pains as well, but while Miami has a whole season to develop chemistry together, the Lakers would have less than half the season. Lebron and Wade are also more willing passers and less selfish with the ball than Melo and Kobe, so they seem less likely to co-exist than the Miami duo. Giving up Bynum also takes away one of their biggest advantages of a dominating frountcourt with Bynum and Gasol. When you factor in Odom coming off the bench, few teams can compete with the Lakers' length. The Lakers have a limited window to win a title now, so it may be unwise for a team going for their third straight title to risk their chemistry with such a major change this late in the season.
So where will he end up?
This all depends on what Melo values most - winning or money. Staying in Denver will most likely mean getting the most money, but going to New York or LA offers him a better chance to win a title in the next few years. When he was recently asked about this decision, Melo responded by saying "If I sit here and say I'm willing to lose 15 or 20 million dollars, I'd be lying to you. But at the same time this has never been about money. … Now I'm focused on trying to win a championship." So he's essentially saying his impending free agency is about money, but it's not about money. Ok, that clears things up.
If I had to guess, I'd bet on Carmelo Anthony being traded to the Knicks before this month's trade deadline. If he were satisfied with being in Denver then this never would have been an issue, so I just can't see him staying there long term. As we've discussed, it just makes too much sense for the Knicks to work something out before the deadline rather than risk waiting for free agency.
The Knicks are already a playoff team, currently holding the 6th seed in the East. Adding Melo would be a boost for the team, but with only about 30 games remaining in the season it may be too late to move up. The trade might make them better than Orlando and Atlanta, but it would still be a challenge for them to make up the 4 or 5 games that they trail each team in the loss column, especially when you factor in the adjustment period it would take to incorporate Melo into the offense. So while their playoff seeding might not be impacted at all, it would make them a more dangerous first round opponent for one of the East's elite teams and could be a potential upset pick to advance to the second round. That's probably their ceiling for this year, but having two star players like Melo and Stoudemire would help attract other players that they can build around in the future. With some of the league's best teams, such as the Spurs, Celtics and Lakers, nearing the end of their windows as contenders, now is the time for a team like the Knicks to start building toward being a contender in a couple of years.
It will be very interesting to see how this plays out, as it could have some major ramifications on the playoff races in each conference, both this year and in the future. Nobody knows how it will play out yet - probably not even Melo. As long as this doesn't end up with Melo as a free agent making his decision of where he's taking his talents to on national TV. Aside from that sort of a disaster, this is shaping up to be an exciting story as we head toward the trade deadline.
There are plenty of pros and cons for everyone involved, which has turned this into a very complicated issue. Let's break down the different aspects of a potential trade.
Why does Melo want to leave Denver?
Anthony has his eyes set on the bright lights of New York. He wants to be on a big stage and no other city can cast him into the spotlight more than NYC. There he would have the opportunity to team up with his buddy Amare Stoudemire to attempt to form their own group of super friends to rival the trio in Miami that was formed over the summer. The Knicks also run a player friendly system through Mike D'Antoni's up-tempo offense, which would be appealing to a high volume shooter like Melo. It also doesn't hurt that his wife is pushing for a move to New York to help further her own career.
When you look around the league at contending teams it's clear that in this league you need to have more than one super star in order to be a contender. Teams like the Celtics, Lakers and Heat all have multiple All-Star caliber players. As great a player as Carmelo Anthony is, he knows he's not winning a title in Denver. He has a nice supporting cast with players like Nene and Afflalo, but neither of them will be a super star, and Chauncey Billups is on the decline. The window in Denver has closed and Melo has decided that it's time to move on. After seeing players like LeBron, Wade and Bosh team up together this season, Melo is determined to take a similar short cut to land on a contending team.
Why would Denver want to trade him?
Because they saw how the departures of LeBron and Bosh devastated their former teams when they were allowed to walk away as free agents while getting nothing in return. The Nuggets are determined not to let that happen to them. If they are going to lose their star player then they are going to want to get some young players and draft picks back in return. They would also like to dump some of their bad contracts on any team looking to acquire Melo, with the goal of getting under the luxury tax line, which would save them millions of dollars.
Would Melo consider staying in Denver?
Here is where it gets interesting, because Denver actually has more leverage in these trade talks than people think. A common misconception is that teams will try to low ball the Nuggets because they think they are desperate, but that's not necessarily the case. There is still a 3 year, $65 million extension from Denver on the table that would be awfully hard to walk away from. Ideally, Melo would like to sign the extension and then be traded. That way he gets his big money contract and also moves to his team of choice. The problem is that the Nuggets aren't foolish enough to be held hostage in these talks, so they aren't going to accept an offer that doesn't benefit them. If they don't receive a serious offer to their liking then they could decide to keep him for the rest of this season and hope that he changes his mind by signing the extension to stay with them after all.
Why should the Knicks give up anything when they can sign Melo as a free agent?
For a team like the Knicks that is looking to trade for Melo, they have to play along to come up with a package that appeals to Denver because they can't count on getting him as a free agent, no matter how much Melo claims he's only interested in playing in New York.
One of the biggest obstacles in these trade talks is the uncertainty of the collective bargaining agreement, which expires after this season. A new agreement has yet to be reached, which means we potentially could be headed for a lockout next season. Even if a new agreement is reached in time, it's widely believed that it will include a lower salary cap limit, which may also include a hard cap that prevents teams from overspending into the luxury tax. This would make it more difficult for a team like the Knicks to afford giving another max contract to a star like Melo when they already have so much money committed to Stoudemire. Rumor has it there may even be a franchise tag option, similar to what the NFL uses, which would allow teams to prevent a star player from leaving (we can thank LeBron for forcing the league to consider that idea). The new agreement is also likely to be less friendly to player contracts, meaning that the extension Melo is able to sign now is almost certainly more money than he will be able to make as a free agent. If a trade can't be worked out before the deadline this month then Melo is risking millions of dollars if he refuses to sign the extension.
The other thing to keep in mind is that the Knicks really aren't giving up much, at least under the three team deal that is currently on the table, which includes the Minnesota Timberwolves. In this proposed deal, the Knicks would send Anthony Randolph to the Timberwolves, along with Eddy Curry's expiring contract. They would then send Wilson Chandler to the Nuggests, who would also receive Corey Brewer and a first round draft pick from Minnesota. Denver and Minnesota may require additional pieces, draft picks or cash to be included to finalize such a deal, but it doesn't sound like that will include anything the Knicks aren't willing to part with the get Anthony. Curry's bloated contract covers a lot of the salary requirements and he doesn't even play. Randolph is loaded with potential but currently is not a key part of their rotation. Chandler is the only real loss to the Knicks rotation. He's having a break out season and still has more upside, but Melo is still a clear upgrade and would take his spot in the rotation. Chandler will be a restricted free agent after this season, and in order to sign Melo as a free agent they would need to renounce their rights to Chandler because they can't afford both. If signing Melo would mean losing Chandler anyway then trading him away now isn't a big loss. If the Knicks can pull off this trade without having to sacrifice Danillo Gallinari or Landry Fields then this deal becomes a steal for them. Even if one of those two needs to be included, the Knicks still end up ahead. Getting a trade done now, even if it means giving up some expendable assets, is a much wiser choice than gambling that Melo won't cave in and accept more money to stay in Denver.
What are the other teams that could get involved?
New Jersey: The Nets supposedly pulled out of trade talks last month, but this could be a savvy negotiating move by Russian billionaire owner Mikhail Prokhorov to regain control of the discussions. Their package centered around promising rookie Derek Favors is still by far the best offer Denver has been given thus far. Melo has been non-committal as to whether he would sign an extension to accept a trade to New Jersey, but with the team expected to move to Brooklyn within two years, the Nets may be an appealing option still. They were clearly aggravated by how negotiations were going and the fact that so much of it became public, which caused them to back out. Don't count them out to sneak under the radar and quietly pull off a deadline deal that would trump anything else Denver has been offered.
LA Lakers: It's unclear how serious the offer is, or if it's more a matter of people blowing smoke to gain leverage, but supposedly the Lakers and Nuggets have discussed the possibility of a swap between Carmelo Anthony and Andrew Bynum. For this to make sense for Denver there would almost certainly have to be other players involved to allow them to save some money in the deal. Bynum has shown flashes of being a dominant big man, but also has some huge injury question marks. He also doesn't seem to be a good fit next to Nene, so trading for Bynum would essentially mean they should be prepared to start shopping Nene as well, or else see him walk away after this season.
For the Lakers, it's a huge risk that may not be worth taking for them either. Melo is a high volume scorer and is essentially a lesser version of Kobe. We saw Lebron and Wade struggle to co-exist early on in Miami this season. Melo and Kobe would inevitably struggle through some initial growing pains as well, but while Miami has a whole season to develop chemistry together, the Lakers would have less than half the season. Lebron and Wade are also more willing passers and less selfish with the ball than Melo and Kobe, so they seem less likely to co-exist than the Miami duo. Giving up Bynum also takes away one of their biggest advantages of a dominating frountcourt with Bynum and Gasol. When you factor in Odom coming off the bench, few teams can compete with the Lakers' length. The Lakers have a limited window to win a title now, so it may be unwise for a team going for their third straight title to risk their chemistry with such a major change this late in the season.
So where will he end up?
This all depends on what Melo values most - winning or money. Staying in Denver will most likely mean getting the most money, but going to New York or LA offers him a better chance to win a title in the next few years. When he was recently asked about this decision, Melo responded by saying "If I sit here and say I'm willing to lose 15 or 20 million dollars, I'd be lying to you. But at the same time this has never been about money. … Now I'm focused on trying to win a championship." So he's essentially saying his impending free agency is about money, but it's not about money. Ok, that clears things up.
If I had to guess, I'd bet on Carmelo Anthony being traded to the Knicks before this month's trade deadline. If he were satisfied with being in Denver then this never would have been an issue, so I just can't see him staying there long term. As we've discussed, it just makes too much sense for the Knicks to work something out before the deadline rather than risk waiting for free agency.
The Knicks are already a playoff team, currently holding the 6th seed in the East. Adding Melo would be a boost for the team, but with only about 30 games remaining in the season it may be too late to move up. The trade might make them better than Orlando and Atlanta, but it would still be a challenge for them to make up the 4 or 5 games that they trail each team in the loss column, especially when you factor in the adjustment period it would take to incorporate Melo into the offense. So while their playoff seeding might not be impacted at all, it would make them a more dangerous first round opponent for one of the East's elite teams and could be a potential upset pick to advance to the second round. That's probably their ceiling for this year, but having two star players like Melo and Stoudemire would help attract other players that they can build around in the future. With some of the league's best teams, such as the Spurs, Celtics and Lakers, nearing the end of their windows as contenders, now is the time for a team like the Knicks to start building toward being a contender in a couple of years.
It will be very interesting to see how this plays out, as it could have some major ramifications on the playoff races in each conference, both this year and in the future. Nobody knows how it will play out yet - probably not even Melo. As long as this doesn't end up with Melo as a free agent making his decision of where he's taking his talents to on national TV. Aside from that sort of a disaster, this is shaping up to be an exciting story as we head toward the trade deadline.
Monday, February 7, 2011
Super Bowl XLV Recap
Super Bowl XLV showcased two of the NFL's most storied franchises - the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Here is a recap from the big game:
Pre-game:
Pre-game:
- Dallas Cowboys stadium is packed with both Steelers and Packers fans. Both teams have a strong nationwide following and tend to travel well in road games, so no surprise that fans of each team are strongly represented. There may be slightly more Steelers fans. Or maybe they are just louder.
- Glee's Lea Michele starts the festivities by singing God Bless America. Apparently Fox thought they didn't spend enough time advertising their own shows so they had to find another way to sneak another one. A shameless plug by the network? Perhaps, but the girl does have a fantastic voice.
- Christina Aguilera does the National Anthem. I'm pretty sure you could have won some money in Vegas for betting the over on how long it would take for her to finish the song, as well as how long she would hold the last note. She also messed up one of the lines.
- Why bother doing a flyover with the Air Force jets when the roof to the stadium is closed so nobody can see it?
- Green Bay wins the coin toss and elects to defer. Half of the people foolish enough to bet on a coin toss are already disappointed with how this game is going.
- The Packers defense comes out fired up. Clay Matthews wants to prove the Packers have the tougher D. Or maybe he just wants to prove he has better hair than Troy Polamalu.
- The Packers force a quick 3 and out on the first drive of the game. Then they muff the punt, which almost resulted in a quick game changing play that could have put the Packers in an early hole, but they managed to recover the loose ball. Crisis averted.
- The Steelers have no luck moving the ball all quarter. The Packers do a bit better. Aaron Rodgers connects with Jordy Nelson for a 29 yard TD on a route down the right sideline for the game's first points.
- I'm in a playoff fantasy league with $100 going to the winner. I'm tied for first and only one other person in the league has a realistic chance of beating me. That guy has Nelson. Not a good start for me.
- Big Ben responds by throwing a TD pass of his own on the first play of the following drive. Unfortunately, the pass is to the other team. Nick Collins returns the Interception for a TD. Packers up 14-0 in the first quarter.
- The quarter begins with the Steelers in the middle of a drive. For the first time all game they are finally moving the ball, slowly but surely. Hey, it's a start! They stall in the endzone and have to settle for a field goal. At least they are finally on the board: 14-3.
- Steelers force a quick 3 and out. Donald Driver is injured during the drive and retreats to the locker room. Not a good sign for the Cheese-heads.
- A promising Steelers drive is stopped when Roethisberger throws his second Interception of the game. A pass intended for Wallace is picked off by Jarrett Bush, who saw that one coming the whole way and was in great position to jump in front of the pass.
- This leads to several jokes about bush getting Roethlisberger into trouble again.
- Packers take over near mid-field and only need 4 plays to get in the endzone. Greg Jennings has finally joined the party, scoring on a 21 yard strike from Rodgers. Packers up 21-3.
- Say what you will about the flaws with Roethlisberger's personal life, but you can't argue against the fact that he's still one of the best QBs in the league under pressure with the clock winding down. With just over 2 minutes to go in the half he leads the Steelers to their first TD of the game. The drive started out with a 37 yard catch from Antawn Randle El (who knew he still played a role other than special teams?) and ended with a short TD catch by Hines Ward.
- Packers take a 21-10 lead in the half, but Steelers end on a good note and finally have some momentum.
- The halftime show features the Black Eyed Peas, who start the show by being lowered down to the stage from somewhere up near the ceiling. I think they were hiding in that giant TV during the first half. They are wearing some funky futuristic outfits.
- Never seen the Peas perform live before, but they put on a decent show. The problem though... they can't sing! They sounded nothing like the version you hear on the radio, which must have digitally altered their voices because hearing them live it's clear they don't have great voices. They aren't popular due to their singing voices though, they are more about the beat and rhymes. You don't need to sing well to repeat Boom, Boom Pow over and over again. They had plenty of stage effects and some people in funny fluorescent costumes dancing around to distract from the singing, so it was pretty entertaining anyway.
- Fergie is wearing a pretty short skirt, so it seems unlikely that she'll pee herself on stage, as she's apparently been known to due during concerts. So there's a bonus.
- Slash from Guns N' Roses makes a surprise appearance. He plays guitar while Fergie does an awful Axl Rose impression, singing Sweet Child of Mine.
- Usher also makes a surprise appearance. I'm worried he may have a wardrobe malfunction, since in most of his music videos he never wears a shirt. We don't really need to see that....
- Overall the halftime show wasn't too bad, but it went on too long and I'm pretty sure the Black Eyed Peas did at least one of their songs more than once. Or maybe they just sound the same.
- Finally back to the game! Packers are forced to punt on their first possession. A facemask penalty adds on to the play after the kick, giving the Steelers the ball at mid-field. Seemed pretty weak for a face mask penalty, he barely touched the facemask, and if he grabbed anything it was the jersey just below the chin. That's not a penalty!
- Steelers capitalize on the gift field position to get back into the game. Rashard Mendanhall plows his way into the endzone. Packers lead down to 21-17.
- Packers offense is really struggling now. Steelers have all the momentum going.
- Well, maybe not enough momentum. It must have taken a little wind out of their sails when they missed a 52 yard field goal. It's indoors, so you can justify trying a kick at that distance. It was far enough, but waaaaaaaay off target. It missed wide left by about 30 yards. That might have missed from 25 yards out.
- Neither offense can get anything going. Packers don't score for the entire quarter. Lucky for them, the Steelers can't add on anymore either. Dumb penalties aren't helping either team. Dropped passes are killing Green Bay. They've had at least 6 dropped passes in this game. I think Aaron Rodgers gave Jordy Nelson the "Kobe" glare.
- Fumble! Rashard Mendanhall coughs up the ball on the first play of the quarter. Someone at the party I'm at was just saying how players don't know how to tackle anymore. They are too afraid of getting fined by the league that they won't use their helmet to try to knock the ball loose. Actually, maybe that's a good thing, that doesn't found safe. Anyway, it happened here. A good legal hit by Clay Matthews that caused a fumble, recovered by Green Bay.
- Another big catch for Jordy freakin' Nelson. If I lose this playoff bet because of some white guy named Jordy... argh!
- Jennings catches his 2nd TD of the game to give the Packers a little more breathing room. They lead 28-17.
- Steelers respond with a TD of their own. Mike Wallace is finally getting more involved. He's one of the fastest players in the league and their most dangerous offensive weapon. He caught four catches on this drive, including a deep 25 yard TD pass where he absolutely burned his defender.
- Steelers run a trick play with Randel El running to the left to convert the 2 point conversion. Steelers back to within 3 points, down 28-25. Plenty of time left.
- Packers do a good job of moving the chains to eat up over 5 minutes of game clock before settling for a short field goal. Lead is up to 6, so the Steelers now need a TD and there are just over 2 minutes left.
- We already established Roethlisberger is great under pressure with the clock winding down. We saw it at the end of the first half. I'm a little worried here, knowing he's capable of putting together a last minute winning drive.
- Wow. Incredibly stupid penalty on Pittsburgh. Unnecessary Roughness after the kick off. That will back them up to their own 13 yard line. It's only the biggest game of the year and this is the last drive of the game that will determine the winner. So dumb penalties that push you into a bigger hole and make it that much harder to win... yea that's kind of a big deal.
- Where is the hurry up offense? Under two minutes to go and Roethlisberger doesn't seem to be in much of a rush. After two plays they've already run about a minute off the clock and only gained 20 yards.
- With time running out and only one time out remaining the Steelers essentially need a miracle at this point. Roethlisberger apparently thinks Mike Wallace's middle name is miracle. He chucks up three straight bombs to Wallace. The first one wasn't even close.
- The last play comes on 4th and 5. The ball, intended for Wallace again, is tipped and nearly Intercepted. I thought it was picked off at first, but the replay showed it did hit the ground. Didn't matter anyway. Steelers turn the ball over on downs.
- Two kneel downs later and the game is over. The Green Bay Packers have won Super Bowl XLV!!
- Aaron Rodgers is awarded the Super Bowl MVP. 304 passing yards, 3 TDs, 0 turnovers
- The Steelers defense was the league's best against the run, allowing an average of only 3 yards per carry during the regular season. The Packers used an effective gameplan of using almost all passing plays, knowing they could not run consistently against the Steelers. James Starks only got 11 carries in the game, despite that the Packers led the entire game and were attempting to run down the clock for most of the 4th quarter.
- Surprisingly, Starks was rather effective in small doses, averaging 4.7 yards per carry. He was the only Packers RB to carry the ball.
- Roethlisberger has a history of putting up some ugly numbers in the postseason, but he typically manages to come through when it counts and win the game anyway. Not the case this time. He put up bad numbers and lost.
- The Packers won the turnover battle 3-0. Given that, the Steelers are lucky the game was this close.
- In my Super Bowl preview I predicted the Packers would win 31-27. They ended up winning 31-25. So close!
- Despite a big game from Jordy Nelson, I still managed to win my playoff league thanks to Mike Wallace's late game catches and the Packers defense. So I won the only bet I had any money on for this game (or would have, if you know, gambling was legal).
- Speaking of gambling, Vegas allows you to bet on some of the strangest things for the Super Bowl. I would have been tempted to place a few bets if I had the chance, but likely would have lost most of the ones I considered, such as John Kuhn rushing for over 6 yards (he didn't have a carry in this game) or the Packers scoring more points the the combined total of points, rebounds and assists for Rajon Rondo in the Celtics game earlier in the day (Rondo scored 29 against the Magic, so he nearly beat the Packers score before factoring in rebounds or assists).
- With his replica WWE title belt hanging over his shoulder, Aaron Rodgers held the Lombardi trophy up high while celebrating the emotional victory. By earning his first Super Bowl title, Rodgers has now put himself in the category of elite QBs, along with Manning, Brady, and Brees. More importantly, this title helps him step out of the shadow of Bret Favre in the Green Bay area.
- So what's next for Rodgers and the Packers? "Let's go get another one," says Rodgers. Ok then. Sounds good if you're a cheese-head.
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Super Bowl Preview
The Big Game is almost here! Super Bowl Sunday has become an unofficial national holiday in the eyes of sports fans from coast to coast. No other sporting event draws as many viewers or gets as much hype as the NFL's championship game. Granted there are some people that only watch for the commercials or the halftime show. Nonetheless, the Super Bowl is as exciting an event as you'll find in sports.
Super Bowl XLV features the Pittsburgh Steelers against the Green Bay Packers. These are two of the league's most storied franchises. Despite being from small markets, their deep historical roots in the NFL have drawn rabid fan bases for each team that spread nationwide. Both teams have some of the most passionate fans in the league, many of whom will fill the stadium in Dallas this Sunday (at least the seats that aren't all bought by corporations anyway).
The Green Bay Packers won the first two Super Bowls and later added a 3rd title during the Brett Favre era (you didn't think you'd get through an article about the Packers... or football... or anything for that matter... without Favre being mentioned, did you?). Dating back to the pre-Super Bowl era, no team in the league has won more championships than the Packers franchise. Since the Super Bowl was introduced in 1967, no team has won more than the Steelers, who have won 6 Super Bowls. Led by QB Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers have won 2 of the last 5 Super Bowls. With a win on Sunday, Big Ben will have won the third Super Bowl of his career, moving him into a tie with Tom Brady for the most titles among active QBs.
The last time these two teams met was in a late regular season match-up in 2009. The Steelers won a 37-36 shootout when Roethlisberger hit Mike Wallace for a TD as time expired. The two teams combined for nearly 900 passing yards and 9 TDs. This game should also be close, but don't expect that kind of offensive explosion.
The Steelers and Packers were 2nd and 5th in the league respectively in total defense this season. The Steelers were by far the toughest team to run against. Their 62.8 rushing yards allowed per game is nearly 30 yards per game better than the next best rush defense in the league. Good thing Green Bay doesn't have much of a running game anyway!
These elite defenses boast two of the best defensive players in the league in Clay Matthews and Troy Polamalu. All eyes will be on these two players when their defenses take the field - and it's not because of their hair. Polamalu received the award for Defensive Player of the Year with his 7 interceptions, despite missing two games this season. Matthews, who was my pick for the award for best defensive player, had 13.5 sacks and forced 3 turnovers.
As impressive as these defenses are, each team has plenty to offer on offense. Aaron Rodgers was in the top 10 in the league in passing yards and Roethlisberger likely would have joined him near the top had he not been suspended for the season's first four games. Both QBs are among the best in the league at rolling out of the pocket to the right to make a throw or scramble for extra yards on the ground. The two teams match each other with big play receivers. Greg Jennings is one of the league's best playmakers at the position and was 2nd in the league in receiving TDs. The Steelers counter with Mike Wallace, who may be the fastest receiver in the league, and a master at catching deep passes.
The biggest advantage for either team is in the running game. While the Steelers have become more of a throwing team in recent years as opposed to the franchise's traditional ground and pound approach, they are still very capable of gaining yards on the ground. Rashard Mendanhall rushed for over 1,200 yards this season and established himself as an elite RB. Meanwhile, the Packers struggled to establish a running game all year and will start the unproven James Starks, who only appeared in 3 games this season before taking over the lead role in the playoffs.
The Steeler's biggest weakness is with their offensive line, which has been decimated by injuries. This could present a problem for them when dealing with a pass rushing force like Clay Matthews. On the bright side for Pittsburgh, Roethlisberger is a mobile QB capable of moving around to avoid the rush. He's also rather big for his position and difficult to bring down. It often takes more than one defender to drag Big Ben to the ground. Plus, it's not as if the Packers have a great offensive line themselves. Despite being a mobile QB himself, Rodgers was sacked 31 times this season, only 1 less than Roethlisberger. True, Roethlisberger played less games due to his suspension, but Rodgers also missed a game (as well as most of another) due to a concussion, so it's really more like a 2 game difference between the two QBs.
These teams are pretty evenly matched, making it a tough call in predicting a winner. I will of course be rooting for the Packers, since another Steelers Super Bowl victory would challenge Tom Brady and the Patriots for the title of the best team of the past decade. Can't let that happen! Plus I have trouble siding with someone with as many shady character issues as Roethlisberger. From a purely football standpoint though, it's a close call. I imagine it will be a close game, with the winner being decided in the final minutes of the game. Roethlisberger has been on this stage before, giving him an advantage. He's mastered the art of winning ugly, as several of his playoff wins have come despite less than impressive stats in the box score.
I expect the Steelers defense to frustrate the Packers early, allowing Pittsburgh to get out to an early lead before Rodgers leads a furious comeback in the second half. If the game is close in the end then game management will be a key element. The Steelers have an advantage between the coaches here, as Mike McCarthy has often been criticized for his late game decision making. Each of their six losses this season was by 4 points or less, two of which came in overtime. Each of their wins was by a margin of at least that much. Granted two of those losses came without Rodgers on the field, but while the sample size may be small it still isn't a good sign for the Packers in a close game.
The odds seem to be leaning towards the Steelers, but I'm still sticking with the Packers. Roethlisberger may have more of a track record as a winner, but I still give Rodgers the edge as the better QB. The strength of the Steelers defense is against the running game, but Green Bay has proven capable of winning without much help from their stable of feeble RBs. For the Steelers to be successful they need to dominate with a strong rushing attack, but I think the Packers will try to lure them into trying to match them in the passing game. The Packers have a deeper core of receivers that can spread the defense - a tactic that has worked well for the Patriots in recent years against the Steelers. Rodgers will carry the team on his back (perhaps aided by some ill-timed Steelers penalties, which have plagued them all year) and will be the one raising the Lombardy trophy in the end.
My prediction for Supser Bowl XLV...
Packers 31, Steelers 27
Super Bowl XLV features the Pittsburgh Steelers against the Green Bay Packers. These are two of the league's most storied franchises. Despite being from small markets, their deep historical roots in the NFL have drawn rabid fan bases for each team that spread nationwide. Both teams have some of the most passionate fans in the league, many of whom will fill the stadium in Dallas this Sunday (at least the seats that aren't all bought by corporations anyway).
The Green Bay Packers won the first two Super Bowls and later added a 3rd title during the Brett Favre era (you didn't think you'd get through an article about the Packers... or football... or anything for that matter... without Favre being mentioned, did you?). Dating back to the pre-Super Bowl era, no team in the league has won more championships than the Packers franchise. Since the Super Bowl was introduced in 1967, no team has won more than the Steelers, who have won 6 Super Bowls. Led by QB Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers have won 2 of the last 5 Super Bowls. With a win on Sunday, Big Ben will have won the third Super Bowl of his career, moving him into a tie with Tom Brady for the most titles among active QBs.
The last time these two teams met was in a late regular season match-up in 2009. The Steelers won a 37-36 shootout when Roethlisberger hit Mike Wallace for a TD as time expired. The two teams combined for nearly 900 passing yards and 9 TDs. This game should also be close, but don't expect that kind of offensive explosion.
The Steelers and Packers were 2nd and 5th in the league respectively in total defense this season. The Steelers were by far the toughest team to run against. Their 62.8 rushing yards allowed per game is nearly 30 yards per game better than the next best rush defense in the league. Good thing Green Bay doesn't have much of a running game anyway!
These elite defenses boast two of the best defensive players in the league in Clay Matthews and Troy Polamalu. All eyes will be on these two players when their defenses take the field - and it's not because of their hair. Polamalu received the award for Defensive Player of the Year with his 7 interceptions, despite missing two games this season. Matthews, who was my pick for the award for best defensive player, had 13.5 sacks and forced 3 turnovers.
As impressive as these defenses are, each team has plenty to offer on offense. Aaron Rodgers was in the top 10 in the league in passing yards and Roethlisberger likely would have joined him near the top had he not been suspended for the season's first four games. Both QBs are among the best in the league at rolling out of the pocket to the right to make a throw or scramble for extra yards on the ground. The two teams match each other with big play receivers. Greg Jennings is one of the league's best playmakers at the position and was 2nd in the league in receiving TDs. The Steelers counter with Mike Wallace, who may be the fastest receiver in the league, and a master at catching deep passes.
The biggest advantage for either team is in the running game. While the Steelers have become more of a throwing team in recent years as opposed to the franchise's traditional ground and pound approach, they are still very capable of gaining yards on the ground. Rashard Mendanhall rushed for over 1,200 yards this season and established himself as an elite RB. Meanwhile, the Packers struggled to establish a running game all year and will start the unproven James Starks, who only appeared in 3 games this season before taking over the lead role in the playoffs.
The Steeler's biggest weakness is with their offensive line, which has been decimated by injuries. This could present a problem for them when dealing with a pass rushing force like Clay Matthews. On the bright side for Pittsburgh, Roethlisberger is a mobile QB capable of moving around to avoid the rush. He's also rather big for his position and difficult to bring down. It often takes more than one defender to drag Big Ben to the ground. Plus, it's not as if the Packers have a great offensive line themselves. Despite being a mobile QB himself, Rodgers was sacked 31 times this season, only 1 less than Roethlisberger. True, Roethlisberger played less games due to his suspension, but Rodgers also missed a game (as well as most of another) due to a concussion, so it's really more like a 2 game difference between the two QBs.
These teams are pretty evenly matched, making it a tough call in predicting a winner. I will of course be rooting for the Packers, since another Steelers Super Bowl victory would challenge Tom Brady and the Patriots for the title of the best team of the past decade. Can't let that happen! Plus I have trouble siding with someone with as many shady character issues as Roethlisberger. From a purely football standpoint though, it's a close call. I imagine it will be a close game, with the winner being decided in the final minutes of the game. Roethlisberger has been on this stage before, giving him an advantage. He's mastered the art of winning ugly, as several of his playoff wins have come despite less than impressive stats in the box score.
I expect the Steelers defense to frustrate the Packers early, allowing Pittsburgh to get out to an early lead before Rodgers leads a furious comeback in the second half. If the game is close in the end then game management will be a key element. The Steelers have an advantage between the coaches here, as Mike McCarthy has often been criticized for his late game decision making. Each of their six losses this season was by 4 points or less, two of which came in overtime. Each of their wins was by a margin of at least that much. Granted two of those losses came without Rodgers on the field, but while the sample size may be small it still isn't a good sign for the Packers in a close game.
The odds seem to be leaning towards the Steelers, but I'm still sticking with the Packers. Roethlisberger may have more of a track record as a winner, but I still give Rodgers the edge as the better QB. The strength of the Steelers defense is against the running game, but Green Bay has proven capable of winning without much help from their stable of feeble RBs. For the Steelers to be successful they need to dominate with a strong rushing attack, but I think the Packers will try to lure them into trying to match them in the passing game. The Packers have a deeper core of receivers that can spread the defense - a tactic that has worked well for the Patriots in recent years against the Steelers. Rodgers will carry the team on his back (perhaps aided by some ill-timed Steelers penalties, which have plagued them all year) and will be the one raising the Lombardy trophy in the end.
My prediction for Supser Bowl XLV...
Packers 31, Steelers 27
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