We are at the half-way point of the NFL season, with every team in the league now having played at least 8 games. It's time to take a look at how each team has performed so far and list them in order of how they rank as contenders as we head toward the playoffs.
Keep in mind these rankings aren't based solely on the team's record. They also factor in things like quality of opponents, remaining schedule, point differential, and team talent.
Spoiler Alert!: The 0-8 Bills are not ranked last!
With so much parody in the league this year we have a lot of teams that look like contenders without any elite teams pulling away from the pack. Every team has flaws, which opens things up for seemingly mediocre teams to make a jump in the second half of the season. Here is how they project based on the first half season's results.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2): The Steel Curtain is back! They boast the league's best defense, which gets most of the credit. No team has given up less points than the Steelers. While the offense has been solid, it's the defense that won them games in the first 4 weeks when Big Ben was suspended. Now he's back and the offense is rolling too. He's still an elite QB with great decision making skills on the field (despite terrible decision making skills off the field) and he has a strong running game to support him. Rashard Mendenhall is 7th in the league in rushing and was a big part of the offense in those first 4 weeks without Roethlisburger.
2. Baltimore Ravens (6-2): The Steeler's AFC North foes are right on their heels. The defense isn't quite as strong as it was in the past, especially in the secondary, but Ray Lewis ensures they are still a physical force to be reckoned with. Joe Flacco has struggled occasionally, but still boarders on near-elite status and continues to improve thanks to added weapons like Anquan Boldin. They do hold a win over the Steelers already, but still have to face them again. Their schedule has been easier than Pittsburgh's so far and the Ravens have a loss against the Bengals, while the Steelers' other loss came in New Orleans.
3. New York Jets (6-2): I still don't trust Mark Sanchez yet, but the running game is good enough to move the ball thanks to a revival year from LaDainian Tomlinson (which he can thank his great offensive line for) and the defense is even better than last year since they now have Antonio Cromartie shutting down opponents receivers in addition to stranding them on Revis Island. When they are healthy and playing together they are a tough team to throw against. They have the 2nd best point differential in the AFC thanks in part to their defense giving up the 2nd fewest points in the league.
4. New England Patriots (6-2): They would have been first on the list if not for a let down on the road against Cleveland last week. Losing Randy Moss has forced them to adjust on the fly, which will take more time. But they are on pace to make the playoffs, and by then Brady should be clicking on all cylinders with his receivers. Their Rookie Tight Ends, while inconsistent, have been a big addition to this offense. The young defense has outperformed many expectations so far, but still needs some work protecting against the pass. They are unbeatable at home and have improved a lot on the road compared to last season. With a great coaching staff and a core of veteran winners holding the youngsters together, they have to be expected to put things together to stay near the top of the AFC.
5. Indianapolis Colts (5-3): Payton Manning is having another MVP caliber year, especially when you consider the injuries they've suffered on offense. No matter who he has to throw to, the Colts are still one of the most high power offenses in the league (4th in passing offense, 5th in total offense). Teams can run on their defense all day, making it vital for their offense to put up points early to take away the team's rushing attack. They are pretty good at defending the pass, in part because teams run against them more, but also because Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney form one of the most formidable pass rushing duos in the league (11.5 combined sacks).
6. New York Giants (6-2): Eli Manning has found a good rhythm with his young WRs, especially Hakeem Nicks, who has broken out to become one of the league's best at the position. The pass rush is much improved from last year (just ask Jay Cutler) which has helped them to the 2nd best point differential in the NFC. Their 5 game win streak is currently the best in the NFL and they are 5-0 against the NFC.
7. Atlanta Falcons (6-2): Matt Ryan has developed into a very good QB, thanks in part to a career year from Roddy White, who may be the league's best WR right now. Michael Turner gives the offense good balance, as he can churn out yards with the best of them. They are above average on offense and a bit below average on defense without being dominant or a liability on either side. The NFC is wide open, without any teams that appear to be at an elite level, but the Falcons can make as good a case as any to be the top team in the conference.
8. Green Bay Packers (6-3): They have only given up a total of 7 points in their last two games and have the NFL's best point differential (+78). Aaron Rodgers is having another Pro-Bowl caliber year despite being without Donal Driver for part of the season. Clay Matthews is looking like one of the best young defensive players in the league, leading the league in sacks (10.5).
9. Tennessee Titans (5-3): They were the highest scoring team in the NFL before their Bye last week, helping them to the best point differential in the AFC. Now they've added Randy Moss as another dynamic weapon. It remains to be seen how effective Moss will be with Vince Young throwing to him, but at the least it will open up more running room for Chris Johnson. In what has been a "down year" by his standards, he's still 5th in the league in rushing and 2nd in rushing TDs thus far. Expect a monster second half from him.
10. New Orleans Saints (6-3): The defending champs have stumbled at times, perhaps suffering a bit from a Super Bowl Hangover. They have also had their RB depth tested with injuries to Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush, which has severely impacted their ability to function as the high powered offense from last year. Yet they still find themselves in a good position to get a playoff spot, if not a division title. A big win over the Steelers on Halloween was a big statement game to show the Saints aren't going away.
11. Philadelphia Eagles (5-3): The Eagles have been forced to switch back and forth between Kevin Kolb and Michael Vick at QB all season. The job is Vick's, for now, but let's wait and see how they string several weeks together with the same field general leading the way. DeSean Jackson is one of the most dangerous players in the league with the ball in his hands and seems to be fully recovered from a brutal concussion suffered a few weeks ago.
12. Kansas City Chiefs (5-3): They stumbled last week against Oakland, dropping them into a tie in the win column for first in the division. However, with a relatively easy schedule the remainder of the season (they get to face Denver twice) they are still in good shape to win the AFC West. They are still the best rushing team in the league (179.6 yards per game), which they need to continue given that Matt Cassell is a mediocre QB at best. It would help if they gave more carries to Jamaal Charles.
13. San Diego Chargers (4-5): Despite having the #1 ranked offense and #2 defense, the Chargers have a losing record. Some of the blame falls on Special Teams, which has been awful. You certainly can't blame it on Phillip Rivers, who leads the league in passing yards by a wide margin. His 2944 yards puts him on pace to eclipse Dan Marino's all-time record. They have a Bye to rest up now and should soon get back some injured receivers, as well as Vincent Jackson's return from his hold out. Ryan Mathews has been a bust so far, but hasn't really been 100% all year due to an injured ankle that he's aggravated several times. Hopefully the Bye will do him some good to help him have a stronger second half.
14. Tampa Bay Bucs (5-3): Coach Raheem Morris may have been a bit overzealous in claiming his team was the best in the NFC, but they might be the most improved. Josh Freeman is developing into a good QB. Their pass defense has improved dramatically, putting them in the top half of the league, but their rushing defense is still one of the worst. They are only 1 game out of first in the division, but their schedule gets harder the rest of the way and they are the only division contender that has a negative point differential (unless you count whoever wins the NFC West, where they are all negative).
15. Chicago Bears (5-3): It's hard to trust a team led by Jay Cutler to not throw the season away (pun intended), but the Bears are still tied in the loss column for the division lead and are 2-0 within their division. It may be ugly when they win, but they are still getting the job done thanks to the league's 7th ranked defense in total yards. Their receivers have all underachieved and Mike Martz's offense seems like a terrible fit, but with so many other team's disappointing in the NFC this year, the Bears have managed to remain in the top half.
16. Oakland Raiders (5-4): It pains me to put them in the top half, given that the Patriots have their first round draft pick, but it's hard to argue with the fact that they have a winning record and the league's 2nd best running game. Darren McFadden has finally broken out, as he's 4th in the league in rushing despite missing two games with an injury and he's also a big threat in the passing game. If San Diego has their usual 2nd half surge then they should be able to pass Oakland, making the playoffs a long shot, but it's still great improvement for them.
17. Houston Texans (4-4): Last year Matt Schaub led the league in passing, but this year he's taken a back seat to Arian Foster and the running game. With Schaub and Andre Johnson on board they are still a dangerous passing team, but Foster has been the team's MVP so far. The undrafted RB wasn't even expected to be a starter before the season, but he's opened some eyes around the league in establishing himself as one of the elite rushers in the game. However, as great as their offense can be, their defense is just as bad. They are the worst ranked defense in the league, which explains their negative point differential and .500 record despite being one of the top offensive teams in the AFC.
18. Miami Dolphins (4-4): Their running game used to be their bread and butter, but Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams have been mostly ineffective and the Wild Cat is no longer as prominent as it was in the past. Brandon Marhsall was the new weapon they brought in, and while he's been good, the passing offense as a whole has not been. Chad Henne is not consistent enough to carry this offense without more help.
19. St. Louis Rams (4-4): I'm surprising myself by putting them this high, but they currently lead their division and are their -1 point differential is by far the best in the division. Sam Bradford is having a great rookie year and looks like a future star. Their problem is they can't win on the road, so unless they can steal a win on the road somewhere then their ceiling may be 7-9. Sadly, that may be enough to win the NFC West.
20. Minnesota Vikings (3-5): Has any team had more drama surrounding them this year then these guys? And it's not all coming from Brett Favre (although he's doing more than his fair share). Trading for Randy Moss, then releasing him after a month is just one of the many blunders Brad Childress has made this year. The players seem to be turning on him and it'll be a shock if the fans don't get what they want by the end of the year by seeing their team "Fire Chilly." At least they still have Adrian Peterson (2nd in the league in rushing) so they still need to be considered dangerous as an opponent.
21. Washington Redskins (4-4): Benching Donovan McNabb at the end of a game they still could have won won't inspire confidence and may have cost them more than just a win that week. They have the 2nd worst defense in the league (giving up 393.3 yards per game). They don't look like a contender, but at least they are 2-0 in the division and have a winning record against other NFC teams. They are 4-4 now and look like a team that will go 8-8.
22. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4): MJD isn't having his best season and David Garrard is as inconsistent as they come, but they've somehow managed to be 4-4 in the most closely contested division in the league. Their terrible pass defense will get them killed in a division with Payton Manning and Matt Schuab, so despite being only 1 game out of first place it's hard to imagine them moving from worst to first in the division.
23. Cleveland Browns (3-5): A few weeks ago they would have been near the bottom of this list, but in their past two games they shocked the Saints and blew out the Patriots. Maybe they are turning things around. Payton Hillis is another one of those off the radar guys that is having a breakout season. They have a great offensive line and their defense is getting better. They are a ways away from contending, but things are looking up for Cleveland. Well... as long as you ignore that whole LeBron James fiasco.
24. Seattle Seahawks (4-4): They play well at home and terrible on the road, which means they've got a shot at a .500 record. Lucky for them they play in the NFC West. The only reason they aren't lower is because they have a legit shot at a playoff spot if they can win that awful division.
25. Cincinnati Bengals (2-6): Carson Palmer is putting up good passing numbers, but it's a bit of smoke and mirrors considering he is forced to throw all the time since they seem to always be behind. A large percentage of his passing yards have come in the 4th quarter during a come back attempt when teams will allow him to pick up yards at the expense of forcing them to use more time off the clock and keep them out of the endzone. On the bright side, TO is having a revival year. Just when it looked like he only was only interested in teaming with OchoCinco so they could make reality TV shows, TO has shown he can still be an elite WR. He's apparently content with the team losing as long as he's putting up big numbers.
26. Detroit Lions (2-6): They are used to being at the bottom of the list, but they are slowly inching their way up. A lot of that has to do with Ndamukong Suh, who could be Rookie of the Year. Despite only two wins, they actually have a positive point differential. Plus, they were screwed out of a win against Chicago when the refs determined Calvin Johnson didn't hang on to the ball long enough on his would-be game winning TD catch. They also would have beaten the Jets if they had a healthy Kicker to kick an extra point. They easily could be 4-4 right now. Even when they don't win, they usually make things interesting and could be a spoiler for some playoff hopeful teams down the stretch. Their future would be a lot brighter if Matthew Stafford could stay healthy, but he may be out for the year, which puts into question whether or not he can ever be healthy enough to be their franchise QB.
27. Denver Broncos (2-6): When Josh McDaniels took over last year they started out on fire, but quickly fizzled, blowing the division lead and missing the playoffs. This year they've been a mess all year. They have no running game, despite using a first round pick on Knowshon Moreno two years ago and trading a 4th round pick for Laurence Moroney. To make it worse, they traded away Payton Hillis, who's having a Pro-Bowl caliber year, for Brady Quinn, a 3rd string QB. On the bright side, Kyle Orton is 3rd in the league in passing yards while Brandon Lloyd leads the league for receivers.
28. Arizona Cardinals (3-5): It's bad enough when team's switch back and forth between starting QBs from week to week, but the Cardinals seem to make the switch in the middle of the game every week. They need to make a decision on Derek Anderson or Max Hall and stick with it. Neither of these guys is the future of the team anyway, but constantly swapping them out for one another can't be good for the confidence of either QB or their rapport with their receivers. Maybe they are hoping that once Dancing with the Stars is over they can convince Kurt Warner to come back for a late playoff push.
29. San Francisco 49ers (2-6): They were picked to win the division in the pre-season, but they've been a disaster so far and are currently in last place in the NFC West. Sadly, the whole division is so pathetic that they still have a chance to win it. Alex Smith was a huge disappointment despite having weapons like Frank Gore, Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree around him. The defense, which was one of the league's best last year, is closer to the bottom of the league this year and isn't getting sacks or forcing turnovers like they did last year.
30. Buffalo Bills (0-8): They may have the worst record in the league, but they aren't the worst team. They've looked much better the past few weeks, losing twice in OT and nearly beating Chicago last week. They've had some bad breaks and could easily have at least a win or two. Ryan Fitzpatrick has given the offense a bit of a spark at least and helped turn Steve Johnson into a legit WR threat. However, they are near the bottom of the league in both offense and defense and have the 2nd worst point differential in the league. Rookie C.J. Spiller has been a bust so far despite the team shipping Marshawn Lynch out of town to make room to give him more carries. They still have a few games left they could win, including this week at home against Detroit.
31. Dallas Cowboys (1-7): They sink so low because of the failed expectations for a team that was supposed to contend for the Super Bowl. Losing Tony Romo to a broken clavicle hurt, but the season seemed doomed even before then. Losing your QB doesn't have a direct impact on the defense, but since Romo was injured the defense has gotten progressively worse. They are the only team in the league to have already fired their head coach, which is a bit of a surprise considering how many coaches deserve to be fired and that Jerry Jones never fires a coach mid-season. There is just too much talent on both sides of the ball for the team to be this bad. They are in a tough division where they have to play the Giants again this week and still have two games against the Eagles left. A home game against Detroit and a road game against Arizona are their best chances to win another game.
32. Carolina Panthers (1-7): The Panthers have played more like de-clawed kittens this year. Their -96 point differential is by far the worst in the league. 5 of their remaining games are against playoff contenders, and of the other three games left they are on the road for 2 of them. That means a home game against Arizona in Week 15 might be the only game left where they have a chance to win. QB Matt Moore was injured last week and is likely out for the season, meaning rookie Jimmy Clausen is forced to take over. He's been very underwhelming so far, making Carolina fans wish they still had Jake Delhomme (ok, maybe that's a stretch). He may still have a bright future, but he's clearly not ready and taking a beating every week won't help. Their running game was supposed to be their strength, but DeAngelo Williams hasn't had any holes to run through and he's also been hurt. Jonathan Stewart hasn't contributed anything, even when given the chance to start. They are easily the worst offense in the league, averaging a pathetic 153.6 total yards per game. Oakland and KC average more yards per game than that just with their running game!
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