A tale of two contracts

The two best players in baseball were recently rewarded with historic new contracts.  One of them appears to be a brilliant decision to lock up a once in a generation talent, while the other is destined to be a disaster. These predictions are not based on where each of these MVP caliber performers are at this stage of their careers, but rather the direction they are trending in.

Miguel Cabrera has won the AL MVP award in each of the past two seasons.  In 2012 he also completed the rare accomplishment of capturing the Triple Crown.  There is no denying that he is the best hitter in baseball, which made him a relative bargain at the $44 million total he was owed over the final two years of his contract.  The eight year extension the Detroit Tigers recently gave him is another story.

When including the final two years of his previous deal, the extension makes his contract worth $292 million over 10 years, which eclipses the 10-year, $275 million deal Alex Rodriguez was given by the Yankees in 2008 for the largest deal in league history.  Cabrera will earn an average of $31 million per season over the course of the deal, beating Clayton Kershaw's $30.7 million for the highest annual average.

Cabrera was worth 7.5 Wins Above Replacement (per Baseball-Reference.com) last season.  A win is worth approximately $6 million on the open market.  Forbes estimates that it is actually $5.9 million per win, but even at a more conservative estimate closer to $5 million, Cabrera is still worth the $31 million per year as long as he continue to put up 7.0+ WAR seasons, as he has done in each of the past three years.

Red Sox Preview 2014

It's tough to repeat in baseball.  In fact, no team has won the World Series in consecutive years since the New York Yankees capped a three-peat in 2000.  Prior to that, the Toronto Blue Jays won a pair of titles in 1992-93.  Other than that - well you have to go back to before my lifetime to find when it has happened. The grind of a deep postseason run takes a toll on players that can carry over to the following season.  You may have heard it mentioned as the Hangover Effect - and no, it has nothing to do with whatever certain Red Sox pitchers were doing in the clubhouse in 2011.  Free agency has led to rising salaries that also makes it harder for most teams to keep their core group together.

With that in mind, you could start building a case why the defending champion Boston Red Sox may not enter the season as the favorites to win this season.  Also factor in that they are part the brutal AL East that prevents them from even being a lock to win the division.  The Rays are well stocked and the Yankees have re-stocked.  Baltimore has the talent to hang around and the Blue Jays can't possibly be as disappointing as last season.

Yet that doesn't mean the Sox are in bad shape.  Not by any means.  They start the season in the mix of contenders by bringing back the majority of last year's core.  So how does this team compare with the team that won the title last season?

The NBA's Draft Wheel

With what is expected to be the most loaded NBA draft in over a decade on the horizon, the issue of tanking has once again come to the forefront of discussion around the league.  Critics will point out that intentionally losing games for the purpose of improving their odds of possibly landing the top pick in the draft is a disservice to the fans and a stain on the league.  Others will argue that a high draft pick is the most feasible way for most teams to improve, while developing young talent has more long term value to a lottery team than giving more minutes to a veteran player that might help them win a few more games in the short term.

In the midst of a 21-game losing streak, the Philadelphia 76ers have become the poster child team for tanking this season.  Their plan began to unfold before the season started, when they traded away All-Star point guard Jrue Holiday to New Orleans for a package that included rookie Nerlens Noel, who has yet to set foot on the court this season while recovering from ACL surgery, and a top-5 protected draft pick this year (which is shaping up to be a juicy pick unless the Pelicans have some major lottery luck).  Then at the trade deadline last month they dealt away Evan Turner and Spencer Hawes.  Sure, the second-round picks they netted in those trades could be useful assets in exchange for players that were likely to leave after this season anyway, but those deals were made primarily to strip the roster of veteran talent in order to maximize their chances for a high draft pick this summer.

In response to this perceived issue, people around the league are exploring changes that would prevent tanking.  The lottery system was put in place to give teams less incentive to tank, but apparently that's not enough for some people.  Since Adam Silver has taken over as the new Commissioner, he has been on the look out for innovative ways to improve the league - which includes ideas to revamp the draft system.

The sun is setting for Steve Nash

This isn't how it was supposed to end.  Inevitably, every star begins to dim at some point.  Talent fades as a player's body begins to betray them in the losing battle against Father Time's undefeated streak, but we always hope for great players to have the chance to go out on their own terms.  Not like this.

This week, Lakers coach Mike D'Antoni suggested that we have likely seen the last of Steve Nash on a basketball court this season.  His rationale was justifiable - Nash isn't completely healthy and with the team far from playoff contention, it's in the best interest of the franchise to develop young players by giving them a chance to flourish.

So if Nash is actually shut down for the rest of the season, is it possible that this is the end of his brilliant career?  Nash still has one year left on his current contract worth $9.7 million, but as he discussed in the documentary series "The Finish Line" on Grantland.com, there is real concern that he could be waived this summer under the NBA's new stretch provision.  Essentially, this would mean that the Lakers can cut him after this season and spread next year's salary over a three year period.  So instead of counting $9.7 million against their cap next season, he would count for only approximately $3.2 million in each of the next three seasons.  If the Lakers do waive Nash, it's unclear if the 40-year old point guard, who has struggled to stay healthy, will be able to find a new home.

Things I Noticed: Super Bowl XLVIII

Super Bowl XLVIII pits the league's best offense against its best defense.  Does the old saying about defense winning championships still hold true in today's NFL?  Nobody pressures the QB as well as the Seahawks, who manage to do so while rarely blitzing.  That means they have more guys back in coverage, led by their secondary known as the Legion of Boom.  But does Peyton Manning have too many weapons at his disposal for even the league's best pass defense to handle?

This is the fifth time in Super Bowl history that the league's top offense has faced the top defense.  The defensive team has won three of the previous four such meetings.

Here are some things I noticed this week:

• With the game being played in the home of the Giants and Jets, the league invited New York
  
  legends Phil Simms and Joe Namath to join in on the field for the coin toss.  Namath screwed up the coin toss by flipping it before Seattle could call heads or tails.  At least he still looked stylish, bundled up in a heavy fur coat, despite kick-off temperatures around 48 degrees.
• A bad snap led to a safety on the first play of the game. Manning was moving up toward the line of scrimmage to make a protection change, but Manny Ramirez missed the call and sailed the snap over Manning's head.  At 12 seconds, that's the fastest score in Super Bowl history.  The previous record was Devin Hester's kick-off return in Super Bowl XLI, which took 14 seconds.
• Pete Carroll wasted an early challenge by questioning the spot of the ball after Russell Wilson scrambled toward the sideline and made a diving attempt for the first down marker.  The ball was re-spotted closer to the first down after review, but still came up short.  Seattle settled for a field goal on the drive.