Wes heads West

BREAKING NEWS: Tom Brady demands trade after irate reaction to the Patriots letting Welker get away.

Ok, so that hasn't actually happened (not yet, anyway).  But you can almost envision that headline popping up in the wake of the Patriots decision to let leading receiver Wes Welker slip away.  Not only has Brady once again been stripped of his most reliable target, but he counts Welker as one of his closest friends.  To make matters worse, Welker will be heading west to Denver to catch passes from Peyton Manning - long considered Brady's biggest rival in the league.  That can't be going over well with TB12 right now.

The loss of Welker comes as a shock to most of us in New England, but the way it happened is even worse.  In the Bill Belichick era, the Patriots have always held firm to the stance that they value each player at a certain amount and won't break the bank to overspend above that level.  It's a wise financial philosophy that has helped keep the Patriots on the short list of contenders for over a decade.  If a team were blowing Welker away with a top of the market deal, similar to the one Mike Wallace just signed with Miami that pays him an average of $13 million per year, it would make sense for the Patriots to move on.  Yet that's not the case.  The 2 year, $12 million deal Welker signed with Denver looks like a bargain.

Welker has led the Patriots in receptions over his past six years with the team, topping 100 catches in five of those seasons.  No receiver in the league has more catches over that span.  He's led the league in receptions twice and came in second three times.  His one "down" season came after recovering from a major knee injury, which he made a remarkably quick recovery from.  Welker still caught 86 passes that year, which was 6th most in the league.  That type of production is going to be hard to replace. 

When it became clear that the team was in danger of losing Welker, they quickly moved to Plan B.  Shortly after news broke that Welker was heading to Denver, the Patriots announced his replacement by signing former Rams receiver Danny Amendola to a five year, $31 million deal.  Amendola is widely considered to be the closest comparable to Welker in the league.  Both entered the league as undrafted free agents out of Texas Tech.  Both work primarily out of the slot and are capable of racking up catches in bunches.  He's quick in open space with terrific hands.  He also adds value on kick returns, having led the league in total yards from scrimmage in 2010.  Amendola does have some experience in the Patriots system from the days when offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels was in St. Louis, so it's not a stretch to envision him stepping in and producing similar numbers to what we're used to from Welker.  After all, Welker was far from the star he is today when he first joined the team, when many complained the Patriots overpaid for him at the time.  What a difference playing with Tom Brady can make!  He can do the same for Amendola.

Amendola is also nearly five years younger than Welker.  His new contract lines up perfectly with Tom Brady's extension and by the time the deal runs out, Amendola will be around the same age Welker already is now.  Welker will soon be 32 years old, so this decision could signal that the Patriots believe he has already reached his peak and may have reason to believe he's on the decline.  The younger Amendola is just entering his prime years and is locked in for the long term. 

While that logic makes sense to some extent, it also carries plenty of risk.  For starters, Amendola comes with some injury risk.  While Welker missed a total of only three games in his six year run with the Pats, Amendola has missed a total of 20 games over the past two seasons and has only once played a full 16 game season.  Welker has been a positive presence on the team, in part because of his toughness.  While Amendola's injuries aren't a sign of a lack of toughness given the severity of his injuries (dislocated elbow, broken clavicle), he clearly hasn't been as durable in his career as Welker has. 

We also don't know that Amendola will be just as successful in this system despite having a similar skill set to Welker.  Tom Brady has a history of issues connecting with receivers that fail to earn his trust early on.  That's why the team has had trouble developing rookie receivers and why high profile acquisitions like Chad Ochocinco and Brandon Lloyd became disappointments.  The rapport between Brady and Welker was as strong as any connection in the league, so it's a lot to expect Amendola to seamlessly take over on that same level.

While Amendola may be the better value in the long run, it's hard to imagine him being an upgrade over Welker right now.  Tom Brady knows his window to compete for championships is closing fast, which is why he agreed to restructure his contract to free up cap space for the team to build around him.  It would be one thing if Welker was asking for more money and Amendola was a cheaper solution, which would allow them to spend more money on improving the defense.  But Amendola is actually making more money than Welker!

New England reportedly offered Welker a 2 year, $10 million deal that included some incentives that could have pushed the deal up to a total of $16 million (according to Welker and his agent, those incentives were unreasonably difficult to achieve).  The value they placed on him seems surprisingly low considering just last year they were willing to give him a three year deal that would pay him an average of $8 million a year (in retrospect, Welker may regret turning down that offer).  So essentially we lost Welker to one of our biggest conference rivals for a measly million dollars per year and replaced him with a guy who we hope will fill in admirably in the same role for more money.

The Patriots have held firm to their value on players in the past, leading to the exit of other popular players such as Lawyer Milloy, Asante Samuel and Richard Seymour.  In those cases, the players left for much richer deals, but that's not the case here.  The Patriots could afford Welker on what looks like a shockingly team friendly contract for a player of his caliber.  This has the look of the Patriots drawing a line in the sand and refusing to cross it.  They set a value on Welker and were too stubborn to have even the slightest bit of leeway. 

It's clear the Patriots no longer value Welker the way most people around the league do.  The low ball offer they tossed at him suggests they may not have even wanted him back, preferring to go with the younger Amendola all along.  If they presented Welker with an offer for the sake of giving off the appearance they were hoping to re-sign him, all they succeeded in doing was allowing Denver to steal him at a discount price because all they had to do was beat New England's offer.

Perhaps Amendola will step in and pick up right where Welker left off, breaking out in much the same way Welker did when he arrived in 2007.  The problem is, we don't know that.  We know what we had with Welker and it worked.  At a time when the defending champion Ravens are left vulnerable due to salary cap restraints forcing them to dismantle their team, now is the time for the Patriots to establish themselves as the favorite in the AFC.  Instead, not only did they potentially downgrade their offense in the short term, but they strengthened a Broncos team that poses the biggest threat to their path back to another Super Bowl.  If the plan backfires with Amendola not living up to expectations, this decision may end up costing Tom Brady his chance at another ring.

All because Belichick is being stubborn.