2013 MLB Preview

The 2013 season kicks off with a night game on Easter Sunday.  The Rangers travel across state to Houston to face their new division rivals.  The new alignment that switches the Astros over to the AL evens out the leagues so now each division has five teams.  It also means that with 15 teams in each league there will be inter league match ups all season long. 

As we get ready for another season to begin, here are my predictions for this season.

AL East: Toronto Blue Jays
You could literally make a case for any team in this division to finish on top.  The AL East is more bunched

together than ever before.  There's no dominant team and they all come filled with question marks.  Toronto has become the trendy pick after they raided the Marlins roster this off-season and added reigning NL Cy Young, R.A. Dickey.  A healthy Jose Bautista would go a long way toward getting the Jays to the top as well.  On paper, they seem to be the best choice in this division, but there's still a lot of things that can go wrong.  What if Bautista's wrist isn't fully healed to the extent that he'll still be able to hit for the massive power we expect from him?  Will Dickey's knuckleball find the same kind of success against the deeper lineups in the AL?  How will Jose Reyes' legs hold up playing on turf?  Spring Training is always full of optimism, so for now the Jays are looking great, but don't be shocked if things fall apart on them.

If the Jays do stumble, which team will be there to steal the division from them?  Baltimore made the playoffs as a Wild Card last year, but their record was aided by an unsustainable level of luck in one run games and extra innings games.  Considering they made no notable changes to their roster, it's hard to find reasons they will improve unless youngsters Manny Machado and Dylan Bundy develop quickly.  The Rays are still dangerous, with their deep pitching staff and spectacular defense, but they did just lose a couple key players.  BJ Upton went to join his brother in Atlanta and the rotation lost 200+ reliable innings from James Shields, who was traded for prospect Wil Myers.  One of the game's top hitting prospects, Myers will eventually be a great player, but the low budget Rays will almost certainly wait until July to call him up from the minors to delay his arbitration eligible years.

The Yankees and Red Sox have perennially dominated this division, but both are struggling right now.  Boston is looking to rebound from a miserable 69 win season that saw them sink to the bottom of the division.  Giving Bobby Valentine the boot to bring back John Farrell as manager should help improve the toxic clubhouse and hopefully he can get Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz back on track.  New rules with the luxury tax have forced even the free spending Yankees to cut back in a desperate attempt to get under the tax line by next year.  They had to shop for bargains this off-season and have little depth to cover the injuries that are already piling up.  Curtis Granderson is out until mid-May, Derek Jeter will start the year on the DL for at least a couple weeks and Mark Teixiera is hoping to make it back by June.  Then there is A-Rod, who makes more money than the entire Astros team combined, but nobody knows when he'll play again.  You can't count out either of these powerhouse teams from making a run at the division title, but they both could just as easily finish at the bottom.

AL Central: Detroit Tigers
The team that fell short in the World Series last year looks to make another run with an improved roster.

Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder form the most dangerous duo any lineup has to offer, but now they'll have some help.  Victor Martinez is back and they also added Tori Hunter to give a little more depth to one of the league's more top heavy teams.  The rotation is solid, anchored by Justin Verlander, but a full season of Anibal Sanchez will help as well.  The biggest question remains the bullpen.  After Jose Valverde melted down in the playoffs last year, the Tigers decided to let their closer walk as a free agent.  The problem is, they don't really have a replacement.  Rookie Bruce Rondon was given the chance to take the job, but after being lit up in Spring Training he's already been sent back to the minors.  For now it will be the dreaded bullpen by committee.  It's a glaring weakness, but not likely one that will prevent them from dominating a weak division.

The White Sox might have the best chance at unseating the Tigers for the division, but for that to happen they'll need Chris Sale to keep pitching like an ace while making another big jump in his innings total, Jake Peavy to continue his career resurgence and Paul Konerko to remain a steady force in the lineup at age 37.


The Indians made some improvements by signing Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher, but they are still several pieces away from being a contender.  The Royals are loaded with young players with huge upside, which makes them seem like they are on the verge of a breakout season that could make them a surprise contender.  Then again, it seems like we've been saying that about them for years.  Pitching is still their weak spot.  James Shields is a workhorse veteran capable of leading a staff, but his track record outside of pitcher friendly Tropicana Field in Tampa (4.54 career road ERA) leaves a lot to be desired.  The rebuilding Twins are the most likely team to finish at the bottom of the division.  Their best case scenario if for veterans like Justin Morneau to get off to a hot start to build some trade value before July.

AL West: LA Angels
They entered last season with a lot of hype of a potential World Series contender following off-season

acquisitions of Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson, but ended up missing the playoffs.  In retrospect, waiting until the end of April to call up MVP candidate Mike Trout may have cost them a few games, but they won't have to worry about that this year.  The Josh Hamilton contract comes with plenty of long term risk for various reasons, but if he's healthy this year he'll help make the Angels one of the best offensive lineups in the league.  The rotation has some question marks on the back end, but Jared Weaver is a legitimate ace and Wilson will look to bounce back to become a solid option behind him.  An improved bullpen also means less late game leads are likely to be blown this year.  The Angels weren't that far off last year, so these improvements should be enough to put them over the top.

The Rangers had dominated the division for a few years, including back-to-back trips to the World Series, until a late season collapse dropped them to a Wild Card spot and an early playoff exit.  Now they've lost their best hitter, who jumped ship to their biggest rival.  Some of that offensive production could be off-set by the addition of Lance Berkman, who is hoping a full time DH spot will keep him healthy for a full season.  Adding super prospect Jurickson Profar to the mix would help, if they could find a spot for him.  As it stands now, they'll send him back to the minors until they can figure out where to put him.

Oakland won the division last year, but that was thanks to the Angels slow start and the Rangers late season fade, including a three game sweep at the hands of the A's that cost them the division.  Oakland has some good young talent, but remain an underdog against their big spending rivals.  Seattle made some additions to improve one of the league's weakest offenses and bringing the fences in closer will help score more runs as well, but whatever that adds to their offense is just as likely to take away from their pitching.  At the bottom of the division we'll almost certainly find the Astros.  With the league's lowest payroll, it's clear they aren't even pretending like they are competing this year.  They've got a long road ahead of them as they attempt to rebuild their farm system.

AL Wild Cards: Rangers, Rays

NL East: Washington Nationals
The Nats found their way to the postseason for the first time since the franchise moved to Washington from

Montreal by winning the division last year and there's no reason to think they can't repeat.  While everyone loves comparing Bryce Harper to Mike Trout, it's unfair to expect the same type of jump for Harper this season.  Yet it is worth noting that Harper was much more successful last year than Trout was in a brief appearance as a 19 year old in 2011.  Harper is a future MVP and it wouldn't be a surprise if he put himself in the mix as early as this season.  The rotation will be stronger than ever this year now that Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann aren't held back by innings limits.  If Gio Gonzalez pitches like he did last year and Dan Haren bounces back with his switch back to the NL, the Nats will have the deepest all around team in baseball.

Atlanta made some key additions, including both Upton brothers.  While neither has lived up to their high ceilings yet, perhaps playing alongside each other will bring out the best in them.  Younger brother Justin finished in the top 5 in MVP voting two years ago, so there's no reason to think he can't keep building on that if he stays healthy. 

The Phillies will hang around as long as their pitching holds up, but there are a lot of questions about Roy Halladay.  He's coming off a miserable season and hasn't looked healthy this spring.  The lineup is getting old and far from the run scoring machine that helped them dominate the division a few years ago.  The Mets are in rebuilding mode and Miami just sold off anyone of value from their team not named Giancarlo Stanton.

NL Central: Cincinnati Reds
They need Joey Votto to stay healthy and hit like the MVP he was two years ago.  When he managed to

  stay in the lineup last year he still hit well, but the mysterious lack of power is troubling.  They added Shin-Soo Choo to set the table at the top of the lineup, giving them the much needed lead off hitter they've been missing.  He's a poor fit in center field though, so what he adds to their offense he may subtract nearly as much on defense.  Aroldis Chapman has one of the best arms in the game, but it appears we'll never find out how it would work in the starting rotation.  His fastball is his only real weapon and he really only has one other pitch, so a starting spot may not have worked out anyway.  He's more comfortable in the bullpen and he'll give the Reds one of the league's most dominating closers.

St. Louis will give the Reds a good run for the division.  Adam Wainwright is now two years removed from Tommy John surgery and should be back to being an ace.  The Cards were the second highest scoring team in the NL last year.  With emerging talent like Allen Craig, along with veterans Yadiar Molina and Carlos Beltran, they should once again find themselves near the top.

Pittsburgh showed flashes of emerging as a contender last season, but predictably fell apart down the stretch to finish below .500 once again.  That's where they've been for over two decades, but with young talent on the way they should soon end up with a winning record.  It just may not be this season.  The Brewers were surprisingly the NL's highest scoring team last year.  They'll still score plenty of runs, unless the PED scandal that continues to shadow Ryan Braun turns into a lengthy suspension.  The Cubs will likely finish at the bottom of the division as they continue their rebuilding strategy and attempt to ship off any overpriced veterans that manage to build any trade vaule in the first half of the year.  It's too bad for them that the Astros switched to the other league.  The teams in the NL Central no longer have that punching bag to beat up on.

NL West: San Fransisco Giants
The defending champs should get the benefit of being the favorites to at least win their division.  Their playoff

run last year was fueled by an outstanding second half by Buster Posey, which resulted in an MVP award for the young catcher.  It's difficult to project the same type of finish for Posey, especially when catcher is such a physically demanding position.  Their pitching will keep them in the race, with Matt Cain and Madison Bumgardner leading the way.  If they hope to get back to the postseason again they will need Tim Lincecum to regain his vintage form.

The Dodgers have plenty of money to spend.  The problem is, eventually you run out of players to buy.  They've filled their roster with expensive veterans, but still have plenty of holes.  They couldn't chase Josh Hamilton last winter because they are already overpaying Carl Crawford, who they hope will stay healthy enough to give them something in left field.  Hanley Ramirez is already injured and expected to miss over a month.  Adrian Gonzalez needs to find his power stroke again.  Zack Grienke's elbow started acting up as soon as he signed his name on the dotted line of his new contract.  The Dodgers are trying to become the new Yankees, the team that tries to win by spending twice as much money as everyone else.  Maybe that will work, or maybe it will end up with an expensive mess.

The Padres will miss Chase Headley's bat in the lineup for the first month or two.  Even when he returns, the huge jump in his HR/FB ratio last year screams for regression in his power numbers.  Arizona could find themselves in the mix, but trading away Justin Upton doesn't appear to be a good way to take a step forward in the short term.  The Rockies are a mess.  They have a ton of money committed to Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, but not much else around them.  They are always going to struggle to find good pitching in a hitter haven like Coors Field, but most of the guys in their rotation now wouldn't be very good in any ball park.

NL Wild Cards: Braves, Dodgers