NFL Free Agency: Winners & Losers

We are now over a week into the NFL free agency period and already we've seen some big names on the move.  Signing free agents can be a quick fix for teams looking to improve in a hurry, but it can be risky to dive head first into a spending spree.  Just ask the 2011 Eagles.  Impact players typically don't hit the free agent market while still in their prime and missing on an expensive long term deal that turns into a bust can have drastic ramifications on a roster in this era where the salary cap remains flat.

As is often the case, the first day of free agency saw some desperate teams overpay some of the available veterans, while smart teams waited out the market and found some relative bargains.  You don't necessarily have to sign the big name talents to be successful in free agency, as long as you fill holes with reasonable moves and avoid having new holes open up by having your roster raided by other teams.

With that in mind, here are some teams that have succeeded and failed so far in free agency.  Keep in mind that there is still plenty of talent available and teams still have the upcoming draft to plug holes, so the way things look for some teams now may not be that way once next season begins.

Winners

Denver Broncos

The Broncos got off to a good start by stealing Wes Welker away from New England for what looks like a bargain deal - 2 years, $12 million.  Denver now boasts three receivers that topped 1,000 yards last season, giving Peyton Manning plenty of options in the passing game.  If they can keep their stable of running backs healthy to give them any semblance of a running game, this may become one of the best offenses in the league. 

They also signed CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to a reasonable contract.  While he struggled playing for a dysfunctional Eagles team, he still has the talent to be an upgrade in the Broncos secondary.  He'll team with Champ Bailey for a formidable pass defense.

The biggest flaw with the Broncos off-season has been the Elvis Dumervil fiasco.  Denver wanted to restructure his $12 million deal to cut it down to $8 million, but his agent faxed the paper work back late.  With the deadline about to pass, Denver was forced to cut one of their top defensive players.  While Von Miller's rise toward being of the the game's top defensive players is the most important component to the Broncos pass rush, pairing him with Dumervil, who led the league in sacks in 2009, made them a scary unit for opponents to face.  It would be a huge blow if they were to lose him over a paperwork mishap.  Denver reportedly has made him an offer to bring him back, but cutting him stuck them with a $5 million cap hit.  If they offered him anywhere near the $8 million they originally were willing to restructure to then they aren't saving any money from his original contract that they were unwilling to pay.  If the new deal is significantly less, it seems likely another team could swoop in and steal him away.

New England Patriots

How are the Pats considered winners when I'm already on record saying that I wasn't a huge fan of the downgrade from Welker to Danny Amendola?  Truthfully, I'm still as upset about losing Welker as most fans in New England are, but more information regarding the contracts of the two receivers has come to light in recent days that makes it a little easier to stomach.  Most importantly, while Amendola's 5 year, $31 million means he could average more money than Welker, it actually includes less guaranteed money than what Welker got and the cap hit is significantly less.  In that case, it actually does make some sense.  While I still consider Amendola a downgrade, if he stays healthy he should still produce similar results in this system.  Considering he's nearly 5 years younger, he also provides more long term value.  It's still a risk to expect him to do what Welker has done the past six seasons, but he's still a better value for the financially responsible Patriots.  That's just how they do business.

What puts them in the winners column is that they were able to solidify their weak secondary by re-signing Aquib Talib and adding Safety Adrian Wilson.  Talib has his flaws, but the Patriots defense was substantially better in the second half of last season after they traded for him and drastically fell apart in the AFC Championship game once he exited with an injury.  He's not the shut down corner that someone like Darrell Revis is, but nobody else is on that level (sorry Pats fans, the Jets aren't trading Revis within the division).  Talib has Pro Bowl caliber talent as long as he has his head on straight.  There were no better options in free agency and the defense would be much worse without him.  The fact that they were able to bring him back on a reasonable 1 year deal instead of panicking early by throwing an expensive long term deal at him is a huge win that mitigates much of the risk they take considering Talib's questionable history.  The Patriots also were in dire need of an upgrade at Safety.  While most fans in New England were clamoring for Ed Reed, Wilson provides an acceptable substitute on what is likely a cheaper deal than what Reed will get.  Wilson provides the type of hard hitting toughness in the secondary the team has lacked since Rodney Harrison retired.  If the team keeps Devin McCourty at the other safety spot, the former CB can play the ball-hawking role Reed would have filled, while Wilson handles the enforcer role.

New England also saved some money by cutting Brandon Lloyd after one disappointing season.  If he doesn't end up getting the type of offer he's looking for, he could always return on a cheaper deal.  They also signed Donald Jones - a big, physical receiver with good hands that can play on the outside.  They've also offered a deal to restricted free agent Emmanuel Sanders.  If cap-strapped Pittsburgh doesn't match the offer, New England will have to sacrifice a 3rd round pick (leaving them with only picks in the 1st, 2nd and 7th rounds of the upcoming draft), but that's a fair price to pay for the speedy receiver that can stretch defenses.  With their dynamic TE duo working the middle of the field, along with Amendola in the slot, the Pats could really use a receiver that can be a deep threat.

Pats fans will miss the versatility of fan favorite Danny Woodhead, but replacing him with Leon Washington will give a needed boost to their struggling return game.  Washington has been one of the league's best kick-off returners in recent years.  At age 30, it remains to be seen how much he has left in the tank, but he should have enough to provide an upgrade for at least this year.

Factor in Tom Brady restructuring his contract to make these types of moves possible and New England has had a fairly successful off-season so far, despite the loss of Welker.

Seattle Seahawks

They made a splash with a blockbuster trade that acquired Percy Harvin for a collection of draft picks, including this year's first rounder.  It's a steep price, but before he suffered a season ending ankle injury, Harvin was on his way to a breakout season where he was establishing himself as one of the game's best playmaking receivers.  He can line up anywhere on the field and can even take hand-offs in the backfield and return kicks.  Seattle was in need of a legitimate go to receiver.  Harvin showed he could be that with the underwhelming Christian Ponder throwing to him.  Imagine what he can do with a rapidly rising young QB like Russell Wilson!  He does come with some risk - he has a lengthy injury history that includes bothersome migraines that may trail him for his entire career and he's known to be a bit of a diva when he's unhappy (which is why the Vikings were more than happy to be rid of him rather than extend his contract).  But the talent is still there and in the end, talent usually wins out.

Seattle also bolstered their defensive line by adding two DE's still in their prime - Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett.  They'll be an upgrade on a couple of their own players at the position that are currently free agents and likely on their way out.

Miami Dolphins

The Fins are a classic example of a team that appears to have had a great off-season, but "winning" free agency won't necessarily result in making them a winner once the season begins.  They grabbed headlines by handing out an enormous contract to Mike Wallace (5 year, $60 million) to give them the elite receiver they lacked after foolishly trading away Brandon Marshall last year.  The only problem is Wallace isn't as good as Marshall and they now owe him more long term money, so they would have been better off just keeping Marshall.  Wallace is coming off a bit of a down season, but that was partly due to Ben Roethlisberger missing games, which in turn hurt Wallace's production.  If you prorate his numbers for the games he played with Roethlisberger, they look a little closer to his 2011 season, when he had nearly 1,200 yards and was just outside the top 10 in the league in receiving.  That's a good sign, except for the fact that Ryan Tannehill isn't Ben Roethlisberger.  He doesn't have Big Ben's arm strength to be able to launch it deep and let Wallace use his blazing speed to chase after it, so Miami might not be the best fit for his skill set.  That may make his numbers this year look more like last year's instead of the previous year, which would make this signing a huge overpay.

Miami also threw enough money at Dannelle Ellerbe that Baltimore wasn't able to match, despite desperately wanting to keep him.  Ellerbe does have potential, but the contract seems a bit rich given his limited track record as a starter.  They also added Dustin Keller at TE to give them another option in the passing game.

They did have to make some tough cuts to free up space for these moves, such as losing Karlos Dansby after one of his most productive seasons.  They also lost their leading rusher from last season, but it's clear they don't envision Reggie Bush holding up as a lead back in the long term and weren't willing to offer him the kind of contract he got from Detroit.  They lost LT Jake Long, who is still talented enough to be considered one of the game's top players at the position.  He's also declined the past two injury plagued years, so it's hard to blame them for being unwilling to commit another big contract to him.

Losers

Baltimore Ravens

The defending champs have been hit hard this off-season as their roster has been raided.  They knew losing the heart of their defense would be tough with Ray Lewis retiring, but it only got worse from there.  So far they've already lost their leading tackler (Bernard Pollard - cut), their best postseason receiver (Anquan Boldin - traded), and their best pass rusher (Dannell Ellerbe - free agency), in addition to solid pieces of their rotation such as Bryant McKinnie and Cary Williams.  Ed Reed is almost certain to follow them out the door, depriving them of one of the league's best ball-hawking safeties.  But hey, at least Joe Flacco got paid! 

After they won the Super Bowl with Flacco, they really had no choice but to re-sign him, but making him the league's highest paid player was a huge mistake.  He had a great playoff run, but was mediocre in the regular season and nothing from his previous years in the league suggest that he's anywhere near being a top 5 QB in the league.  Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers have won Super Bowls too, with far superior stats.  There's no way Flacco should be making more than them.  You simply can't pay a QB that much money unless he's good enough to carry the team on his own.  Flacco just isn't good enough to do that.  His contract put the Ravens in serious long term salary cap trouble, forcing them to make these tough cuts and preventing them from matching offers given to their departing free agents. 

It was hard enough on the Ravens entering this season given they will have to deal with the dreaded Super Bowl Hangover.  No team has repeated as champions since the 2004 Patriots.  Since then, no reigning Super Bowl winner has made it past the divisional round the following postseason.  Three of those teams failed to even make the playoffs in the season they defended their crown, including last year's Giants.  Given the heavy losses their roster has suffered, Baltimore may very well join this trend.

Minnesota Vikings

It may turn out well for the Vikings in the long run, depending on what they do with the draft picks they obtained from Seattle, but it's puzzling that they seemed so desperate to rid themselves of Percy Harvin.  Sure, his diva antics could give his coaches headaches on par with the migraines that have plagued Harvin in his career, but he's still one of the league's best playmaking receivers and just entering his prime. Christian Ponder needs capable receivers to throw to if he's ever going to develop.  He actually showed some promise in the first half of the season with Harvin as his top target, but after Harvin went down with a season ending ankle injury, Ponder suddenly turned into one of the league's worst QBs.  The Vikings managed to sneak into the playoffs on the back of a historical season by Adrian Peterson, but they can't count on that again.  If AP isn't chasing after rushing records then they are going to need more out of Ponder.

The Vikings replaced Harvin with Greg Jennings (5 years, $45 million), who was considered one of the game's elite receivers until injuries derailed him last year.  That seems like a suitable replacement until you consider Jennings is on the wrong side of 30, making the five year deal a big risk.  Jennings also looked elite in part because Aaron Rodgers was throwing him the ball.  Even if he stays healthy, he'll have trouble putting up elite receiving numbers playing with Ponder.

Indianapolis Colts

Patience is a virtue and the Colts are an example of a team that can do harm by lacking patience.  They jumped in at the beginning of free agency by spending a lot of money on mediocre players.  They added some useful pieces, such as Godser Cherilus (5 years, $34 million) and Greg Toler (3 years, $15 million), but had they waited a couple of days they could have signed comparable talent for a fraction of the price.  The most surprising addition is Erik Walden (4 years, $16 million), a former practice squad journeyman that couldn't find a long term deal after a sub par 2011 season and only managed to remain in a starting role with the Packers last season when an injury to Nick Perry opened a spot for him.  Walden was last seen being one of several Packer defenders getting embarrassed by Colin Kaepernick in the playoffs. 

Unless you are chasing elite talent or players that provide a significant upgrade to your roster, you don't want to be the team that sets the market for players.  The Colts have plenty of cap space and have locked up a young QB at a bargain contract thanks to the new CBA, so they can afford to splurge a little in other areas.  That still doesn't excuse overpaying mediocre talent with long term deals, especially when they are a young team that will need to extend their stars eventually.

Philadelphia Eagles

With Andy Reid out of town, the Eagles will have to adjust to a new head coach for the first time in 14 years.  Chip Kelly found success in college, but now will have to prove he can re-build a struggling franchise at the pro level.  Philly has already started cleaning house to repair the damage their spending spree a couple years ago did.  The "Dream Team" never worked out, so Nnamdi Asomugha, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Cullen Jenkins were let go to help clear space for the rebuilding process.

I do like some of the moves they've made to fill holes on their roster, including Connor Barwin, Patrick Chung and Cary Williams.  They aren't high profile moves, but they are reasonable options that improve the depth of the team.  That's a better rebuilding strategy than chasing the high priced stars, which is what got them into this mess to begin with.

What surprises me is that they haven't completely moved on by parting ways with Michael Vick.  Perhaps they think Kelly's up-tempo offense can revitalize his career, but most likely he's still the declining, injury prone QB with accuracy issues that we've seen the past two years.