Red Sox Spring Training Questions

You may not be able to tell by looking outside here in Boston, but spring is quickly approaching and with that will soon come the beginning of baseball season.  Players have already migrated South for Spring Training, with exhibition games beginning this weekend.  Before the Red Sox season is ready to begin there are many questions surrounding the team that must be answered.

Here's a look at some of the most pressing questions surrounding this team as we head toward the start of a new season.

1. How will the team bounce back after last year's historic collapse?
Red Sox Nation painfully remembers the devastating ending to the 2011 season.  A miserable 7-20 record in September concluded when a weak fly ball to left fell inches in front of the glove of Carl Crawford for a hit that would drive in the winning run for Baltimore in the season finale.  Moments later, Evan Longoria's 12th inning Home Run gave the Rays an improbable comeback victory over the Yankees.  The result - Tampa was headed to the postseason in place of a Red Sox team that seemed to have locked up that spot a month earlier.  Worst... late season collapse... ever!

At least through the early part of this season, the Sox will have plenty to answer for regarding last year's failure.  All the talk about team chemistry, pitching woes and even the chicken and beer won't go away until the team starts winning.  The added pressure could either cause the team to unravel or provide some added motivation to fuel them.  How they respond to the criticism they brought on themselves last year will go a long way toward their success this season.

2. How will the leadership void be filled?

The roster lost veteran Tim Wakefield and team captain Jason Varitek to retirement.  The team is looking to get younger, but at the expense of valuable leadership.  Varitek in particular was a guy that led by example, having an enormous impact on the development of the team's stable of young catchers.  There are few catchers in the game that are as good as Tek was at handling a pitching staff, so the rotation will surely miss him as well.  What the team lacked last year was a guy capable of standing up to the team in the face of despair and demand better results.  It's unclear if the team this year has that type of player.  Adrian Gonzalez is on record saying that after a year in Boston he's ready to step up and assume more of a leadership role, and new manager Bobby Valentine won't be shy about talking to his players.  Kevin Youkilis has shown an ability to get in a guy's face if they get out of line or aren't doing what they should be (just ask Manny), but sometimes his methods can be to the detriment of the team, such as when he publicly called out Jacoby Ellsbury a couple years ago while the young outfielder was recovering from a rib injury.  Having a leader that is respected by his teammates and can set a good example is essential to ensure that history doesn't repeat itself with another disappointing season.

3. What will Bobby V's impact be?
The team was forced to clean house after last season and that included waving farewell to Terry Francona, who will always be remembered as one of the best mangers this franchise has ever had thanks to his two World Series titles during his 8 year run in Boston.  Replacing him is the polarizing Bobby Valentine, who may be as opposite from Tito's style as you can get.  Instead of the laid back player friendly approach that the team was used to under Francona, Bobby V is hyper, ultra competitive and in your face.  These traits can often be both his greatest strengths and biggest weaknesses.  He will run a tight ship in the clubhouse and make sure players are doing what they should be doing.  Say what you will about his style, but his track record shows that every team he takes over shows improvement in his first year with the team.  He's taken the Mets to the World Series and won titles in Japan.  He's a proven winner that may be the best man for the job in terms of turning things around and putting last year's misery in the rear view mirror.  He may eventually wear out his welcome in Boston, but for the short term he should have a positive impact on this team.

4. Will Carl Crawford's struggles continue?

The $142 million man got off to a rough start in his Red Sox career, posting the worst statistical season since his rookie year.  While struggling to adjust in his new environment, Crawford batted an underwhelming .255/.289/.405 while regressing in his extra base hit power.  Despite not appearing to have lost any of his speed or athletic ability, he also dropped off drastically in stolen bases with only 18.  This was due in part to being on base a lot less than he was used to, but he also seemed to have lost some confidence in his base running ability.  His struggles at the plate may have led to confidence issues that effected his base running and fielding, which also showed a dramatic drop off.

Crawford is a five tool player that is far too talented to continue to play this poorly.  A lingering wrist injury may have been part of the issue last year, and off-season surgery may delay his chance to redeem himself, as his recovery could result in starting the first few weeks of the season on the disabled list.  Once healthy, expect Crawford to come in motivated to succeed.  With a year in Boston under his belt he can no longer blame an adjustment period on his struggles and by now should be used to the intense pressures of the Boston fan base and media attention.  He's also had more time to adjust to hitting lower in the order of a lineup far deeper than any he had played in before.  There's no more excuses left.  Crawford is a tireless worker that will do everything he can to get back to the elite level that earned him that expensive contract.

5. Will Jacoby Ellsbury be able to maintain last year's production?

Ellsbury is coming off an MVP caliber season (he finished 2nd in voting behind Justin Verlander) where he hit a career high .321/.376/.552.  Most impressive may have been his boost in power production, which included 32 Home Runs and leading the AL in extra base hits.  His Home Run total was higher than the combined total of his previous 4 seasons, which makes many analysts around the league hesitant to expect him to reach that level again.  While he may not break the 30 HR barrier again, he's shown the skill set to at least get to the mid-20's range while adding plenty of other extra base hits.  Expect him to remain amongst the league's top hitters this year while setting the table for a lethal Red Sox lineup.

6. Will Daniel Bard stick in the starting rotation?
The team seems determined to at least give Bard a shot in the rotation, despite that he failed in the role earlier in his career, which prompted his move to the bullpen.  They apparently aren't convinced that he has the right make up to be a dominant closer, and while he excelled as a shut down 8th inning set up man, the team believes he's too talented to be limited to a one inning role.  Bard has great stuff, with a blazing fastball and devastating slider, but a starting pitcher needs more than two reliable pitches.  His change up is a work in progress and he's still trying to develop another pitch to complement his arsenal.  As a starter, he also won't be able to blow hitters away with a 100 MPH heater every time either, which could limit the effectiveness on his fastball, which is known more for it's velocity than movement.  The early part of the season may be a struggle for him as he adjusts to his new role and tries to incorporate his new pitches.  However, once he settles into the role he has the stuff to at least be an effective option for the back end of the rotation, with upside to become even more than that.

7.  Who fills in the last spot in the rotation
The 5th spot in the rotation is still a question mark after the team struck out on attempts to lure in free agents such as Roy Oswalt (who still remains available as a potential mid-season acquisition).  Alfredo Aceves deserves a shot at the role, but he was so valuable for his flexibility last year as a spot starter and long reliever that it would be difficult to remove him from that role.  Other options include long shots such as Andrew Miller, Aaron Cook, Carlos Silva and Felix Doubront.  None of those options inspire much confidence, but keep in mind that few teams have reliable options at the end of their rotation.  If your 5th starter can at least eat up some innings without imploding, the Sox offense is good enough to keep them in the game often enough to at least give that pitcher a .500 record, which is really all you can ask for from that spot.  Given that John Lackey's season last year may have been one of the worst in franchise history, it's fair to assume that whoever takes over that role this year can't get any worse.

8. Will injuries be a big factor?

Injuries are always a factor that every team has to deal with, but it's impossible to predict just how much of an impact they will have.  Last year the team was hit with some costly injuries that hurt them down the stretch, and in 2010 the roster was devastated by injuries that spoiled their hopes at the postseason as well.  Questions remain about Clay Bucchholz's return from a back injury and Josh Beckett's ability to remain in shape for a full season (the team's new policy of removing beer from the clubhouse will help).  Carl Crawford is still recovering from wrist surgery and John Lackey, Dice-K and Bobby Jenks are all on the 60 Day DL with injuries that could cost them most, if not all, of the season.  This team has enough depth to handle these losses for now, but if injuries begin to pile up, they could once again find themselves in trouble.

9. Why didn't they spend any money this off-season?
New GM Ben Cherrington has gotten a bad rap already for his reluctance to throw money around in his first season since taking over for the departed Theo Epstein.  That's unfair.  There are several reasons why the Sox were uncharacteristically quiet this off-season.  For starters, they actually did spend a lot of money this off-season, it just happened to be on their own players.  The extension for Adrian Gonzalez kicks in this year, jumping his salary up to $21 million.  David Ortiz, Carl Crawford, Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury, among others, all got a raise.  All told, the Sox payroll is already over $160 million, which is the third highest in the league.  Spending freely in free agency would have put them over the luxury tax line again, which the team is looking to avoid because of the increasingly drastic consequences for repeated offenders, which was part of the new CBA agreement.  Even the Yankees are cutting costs, trying to get below the tax line within the next couple of years. 

You also have to factor in what was available.  The Sox don't have a lot of holes to fill on offense.  Big names like Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols weren't a fit with Gonzalez already cemented at first base for years to come.  Jose Reyes would fill a need at shortstop, but his injury history makes him too much of a risk for the money he cost.  Starting pitching was their biggest need, but the options were underwhelming.  Throwing money at the likes of CJ Wilson and Mark Buerhle just because they happen to be the best available options is poor strategy.  The Sox learned that hard lesson with the Lackey contract.  Instead, they took the right course by agreeing to cheaper, short term contracts.  This leaves them the option of plunging into free agency next year, when elite pitchers like Cole Hamels, Matt Cain and Zack Grienke might be available.  I for one would be more than willing to sacrifice this year for a chance at any of those guys next year rather than overpay for a middle of the rotation starter now.  Patience is a virtue.  While it may be a tough pill to swallow for some fans that don't understand the logistics of team building, it's the right move for the franchise at this time. 

10.  What can we expect this year?

Asking this question around the league will likely prompt a wide variety of responses.  Memories of last year's collapse will hang over them until they prove themselves as winners again.  Yet keep in mind that entering last year, this team was on paper considered to be the best in the majors, with many media outlets picking them to win a championship.  The roster has remained relatively intact, so there's no reason to think they can't still be a contender.  They were literally inches away from winning their final game last year, which would have earned them a playoff spot.  Had that happened then nobody would be talking about a collapse now, there would never have been any public mention about chicken & beer, clubhouse chemistry or any of the other issues that have since come to light.  A couple of bad weeks doesn't take away from what this team accomplished for the majority if last year or what they are capable of doing this year.

Also, keep in mind that the league is on the verge of adding an additional playoff spot.  That will improve the team's chances of making the playoffs even more, which should help counter the fact that teams like the Yankees, Rays, and Angels have all made improvements this year.  The competition will be tough, but this team is still loaded with enough talent to keep them in contention for one of those spots.  Expect them once again to be in the thick of the playoff race down the stretch.  We can only hope that this September turns out better than the last one.