There's a lot to talk about and too many stories to devote a full article to all of them. So instead, I'm compiling a list of the major events of the past few weeks with my reaction to each of them. The off-season is far from over, with more news sure to come, but with enough stories to make our heads spin happening just in the past couple of weeks, now seems like a good time to review what's been going on.
- Colts cut Peyton Manning. It seemed inevitable that the Colts would be forced to part with their long time franchise cornerstone after a lost season resulted in being rewarded the top pick in this year's draft. Andrew Luck is the likely selection and he has the talent to contribute right away. Manning would have been owed a large bonus had he stayed on the roster any longer and it made little since to pay big money to two QBs, no matter how much the rookie may have been able to learn from the future Hall of Famer. Last season showed us the Colts have a lot of holes on their roster. It's time to rebuild and move forward.
- Manning signs with the Denver Broncos. After being courted by a handful of teams, Manning surprised them all by choosing one of the dark horse candidates. John Elway leading the recruitment pitch likely played a big part in the decision, as Manning was certainly enticed by joining a team run by a Hall of Fame QB that happened to win a couple of Super Bowls late in his career. Manning hopes to follow that same path, so what better person to guide him than Elway?
- As excited as the city of Denver must be to have signed one of the all time greats to be their new QB, the 5 year, $96 million deal is not without risks. Manning missed all of the 2011 season while recovering from multiple neck surgeries. It wasn't long ago that there was doubt that Manning would ever play again. Even now, that doubt hasn't been completely erased, while one big hit could be career threatening. The Broncos are going all in to win with Manning in the next few years. If he recovers and gets back to being anywhere near as effective as he was pre-injury then it may pay off, but if his neck saps him of his abilities and renders him a shadow of his former self, or if he gets injured again, this could all blow up in their face. Especially when you consider what they sacrificed to bring in Manning. Which leads us to...
- Tim Tebow gets traded to the Jets. With Manning on board, the Broncos wasted little time in getting the word out that Tebow was on the trade market. Despite his popularity with the fans and his surprising run last season to get the Broncos to the playoffs, Elway and the Broncos organization never seemed sold on Tebow being the future of the franchise. It's no surprise that Elway jumped at the chance to replace Tebow's unorthodox style with an option that fits the mold of an elite pocket passer, even if that new option is more expensive and happens to be a 36 year old coming of multiple career threatening surgeries. The Broncos moved fast in sorting through offers from a few interested suitors, before settling on a deal with the Jets. In exchange for Tebow, the Broncos will receive a 4th round draft pick, while also swapping a pair of late round picks with the Jets. Not a great haul, considering a couple years ago they used a first round pick to draft him, but given the lack of demand, they weren't likely to do much better.
- This deal with the Jets makes little sense, as New York has already committed to Mark Sanchez as their starting QB. After flirting with Peyton Manning earlier in the off-season, the Jets were forced to make up with Sanchez, as if he was the jealous girlfriend who's feelings were hurt by their wondering eyes. Instead of a diamond ring, the Jets showed their commitment to Sanchez with a three year, $40.5 million deal, despite that he still had two years left on his current contract. Granted, the restructured deal helped free up some short term cap space for the team, but the guaranteed money in the deal also means they are stuck with him for at least the next couple of years. Bringing in a popular player that happens to play the same position isn't going to help Sanchez's fragile confidence. The Jets may be saying for now that Tebow is the backup and will only be used in occasional Wild Cat formations, but if Sanchez struggles early and the Jets aren't winning, fans will be clamoring for Tebow to take over.
- Last season the team fell apart due to chemistry issues. The Jets hope that Tebow can help fix that with his leadership skills, but if Sanchez isn't on board with deferring to Tebow's voice in the locker room, it could lead to an internal power struggle that will only make things worse. The starting QB is supposed to be the leader, but Tebow's presence will only overshadow Sanchez and impact his control on the team. This could end up being a disaster.
- The trade from the Jets perspective came down to one thing - headlines. After the team they share a stadium with just won a Super Bowl, Rex Ryan's Jets were starved for attention. They were desperate to make a big splash to steal the spotlight back. Typical Rex. How long until he makes another Super Bowl promise now that he's got Tebow's divine intervention on his side?
- Another perplexing side to this story is why Tebow would even want to be traded to the Jets. When the trade hit a snag due to a financial misunderstanding, the deal nearly fell apart. Given more time to consider their options, Denver reportedly gave Tebow the choice of whether he'd prefer to be traded to the Jets or Jaguars. If he went to Jacksonville, he'd return as the hometown hero, near where he grew up and played his college ball for the Florida Gators. He would ensure that the team sells out every game and spark some much needed excitement for a struggling franchise. He'd also actually have a chance to start, as Blaine Gabbert failed to impress in his rookie season. In New York, it's less likely that he'll be handed the starting spot. He'll also be thrown into the fire of the media capital of the world, on a team in disarray that already has a locker room that resembles a circus. Why would Tebow want any part of that mess?
- Miami gets left out in the cold. They were expected to be a top destination in the Peyton Manning sweepstakes, but it turned out he wasn't interested. Matt Flynn picked Seattle over them. They weren't able to trade for Tebow and couldn't meet the steep price it would have taken to trade up in the draft to grab Robert Griffin III with the number two pick (Washington ended up giving up a bounty of draft picks for that honor). The Dolphins had high hopes for fixing a hole at the QB spot that has been without a reliable long term solution since Dan Marino retired. Instead, they had to settle for David Garrard, who wasn't even in the league last year. It's just another option in a long list of short term band-aides that will have them stuck in mediocrity.
- Saints face a stiff punishment. Harsh yes, but also well deserved. The league acted swiftly in coming down hard on the Saints once it was revealed the team had been involved in a bounty program, in which defensive players were financially rewarded for intentionally injuring opponents. Everyone knows football is obviously a physical game, where injuries unfortunately are inevitable, but to intentionally aim to cripple another player is just sickening. While there may be some bloodthirsty fans out there that have no issue with this going on, the majority of fans pay to see a football game. This isn't ultimate fighting. Hits are part of the game, but cheap shots are not. The NFL knows they can't sustain the league's popularity if it's top players are constantly getting injured and missing games. This is part of why player safety has become such a high priority for the league in recent years. What the Saints were doing was essentially setting back what the league has been trying to accomplish. To make matters worse, news of this program was brought to light earlier, when the Saints were instructed by the league to stop. They didn't, so when they got caught doing something again that they had already been forbidden to do, you knew the punishment had to be harsh.
- As punishment, coach Sean Payton has been suspended for the year. Former assistant coach Gregg Williams (now with the Rams) has been suspended indefinitely and GM Mickey Loomis has been suspended for the first 8 weeks of the regular season. The league also took away 2nd round picks from the Saints this year and next (they already owe their first round pick this year to New England). It remains to be seen what punishment will be handed out to players that received these bonuses for their hard hits, but it seems likely that at least some of those players could face suspensions as well.
- This is likely to be a difficult season for the Saints, who will struggle to retain their spot at the top of the NFC South. The whole situation is bound to be a distraction that will follow them all year. Payton's presence on the sideline will certainly be missed. The team will not have the benefit of having their GM involved in any mid-season roster moves. If any players get suspended as the result of their participation in this illegal program, this will only get worse. Oh yeah, plus Drew Brees is already unhappy about his contract situation and may not sign his tender after the team franchised him. How is this mess going to convince him to sign it now? Brees could hold out and miss part of the season, which would weaken them even more. If this situation causes him to consider signing elsewhere next year instead of agreeing to a long term deal to stay in New Orleans, that could end up being the biggest blow of all.
- In a related story, it's too bad the Patriots traded for the Saints pick this year instead of next. If they fall apart this year, that 2013 pick would be a lot more appealing.
- Super Mario cashes in. Mario Williams was the biggest free agent defensive player on the market, which helped him cash in on a $100 million deal, half of which is guaranteed, with the Bills. It's a staggering amount of money that makes him the league's highest paid defensive end. If he stays healthy, he's one of the league's best at the position. Health could be a concern though, considering he missed 11 games last season and three games the year before. If he can stay on the field, he gives the Bills a big boost with his pass rushing skills. They still probably overpaid, which is likely why other teams didn't attempt to match the offer despite his tremendous talent, but then again, the Bills have to overpay for elite free agents... because they play in Buffalo. You'd have to pay me a lot of money to want to live there too.
- Wide Receiver frenzy. This year's crop of free agents was loaded with big name receivers. Some of those names, such as Wes Welker, DeSean Jackson and Dwayne Bowe, were kept off the market when their teams slapped the franchise tag on them. A few others re-signed to deals with their previous teams, such as Marques Colston and Reggie Wayne. That still left a lot of high profile talent that was on the move. Vincent Jackson led the way, bolting San Diego for a lucrative deal with Tampa Bay. The Chargers replaced their big play threat with former Saint, Robert Meachem. Super Bowl hero Mario Manningham left the Giants for the 49ers and Brandon Lloyd reunited with Josh McDaniels in New England.
- Lloyd didn't receive the biggest deal of the bunch, but at 3 years, $12 million, it will most certainly prove to be the best value. Some receivers struggle to grasp the Patriots complex offense (Ochocinco), but Lloyd comes with much less risk because he's already proven he can thrive in it. The Patriots have brought back Josh McDaniels as their offensive coordinator. He was Lloyd's coach in Denver during his breakout season two years ago, when he led the league in receiving, and was also his coordinator after he was traded to the Rams last season. Lloyd gives the Patriots the deep threat they've been missing ever since Randy Moss wore out his welcome in New England. He's a big receiver that can be a threat on the outside and down the field. He'll command extra attention, which will open things up more in the middle of the field for Welker and the tight ends. When Tom Brady is able to click with all of these weapons, it should make this offense unstoppable.
- Speaking of the Patriots, they've been busy over the past couple of weeks. Aside from Lloyd, most of their signings haven't been a big splash, but they've been working hard to fill several holes with mid-range value talent, rather than blow all their cap space with one big signing. They were rumored to be in on Mario Williams, but he was too expensive for their tastes. Mike Wallace would be a great fit, but he's a restricted free agent. Adding him would require paying a price steep enough that the Steelers would be unable to match it, plus they'd have to surrender a first round pick. If Lloyd can provide even 80% of the production Wallace would have, he's a much better value on his deal.
- One of the Pats biggest stories of the off-season has been Wes Welker getting the franchise tag. He's probably not thrilled about it, but there's hope that the teams can work out a new deal. Given his age, it's not likely to be a lengthy offer, but three years for around $27 million should work for both sides. It gives both sides more cost certainty, while also allowing the team to be more flexible in terms of managing their cap space.
- Tom Brady just restructured his deal to push more money back over the next two years, which frees up more than $7 million in cap room this year. That could be a sign that more moves are coming, or that new deals for current players, like Welker, could happen soon. Why else would they restructure Brady's deal now, considering they are already in pretty good salary cap shape? The downside of this deal is that Brady's cap hit rises to $22 million in each of the next two years, but with a new TV deal expected to raise the salary cap in two years, that may not be as big of a concern.
- The Patriots have been able to retain most of their key players from last year, but two notable losses so far have been Mark Anderson and Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis. Anderson was brought in last year off the scrap heap, but revitalized his career in New England while recording 10 sacks in a part time role. Buffalo offered him a much bigger deal than the Pats were comfortable offering for a part time player (he played less than half the snaps last year), so he had to be let go. As for the Law Firm, the team would have liked to have him back on a reasonable deal, but the Bengals offered more and the Pats were not interested in matching. Green-Ellis is a nice player, but he's expendable, especially when you consider the team spent second and third round draft picks on running backs last year. Those youngsters need a chance to carve out a bigger role and each has much more upside than Green-Ellis.
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