Thursday, December 22, 2011

NBA Preview

It wasn't long ago that there were doubts this day would come, but with the lockout finally over, the start of the NBA season is quickly approaching.  The extended off-season cost us about 20 percent of the regular season and forced the league to cram 66 games into a tight schedule.  That's going to mean a lot of back-to-back games (with each team also playing at least one set of games on three straight days).  It's a grueling schedule that will certainly have an impact on the quality of play, as well as be a struggle for older teams and teams that lack depth.

The condensed schedule could result in a very unusual season.  With that in mind, here is how I predict each conference to finish the regular season.

Western Conference

15.  New Orleans Hornets
A playoff team a year ago, the Hornets will likely sink to the bottom of the conference following the trade of their star point guard, Chris Paul.  They got an impressive package in return that will help in their rebuilding process, but this isn't their year.  Eric Gordon is one of the league's best young shooting guards, but how motivated will he be wallowing away on a rebuilding team?  He may put up big numbers, but that won't translate into winning.

14. Sacramento Kings
They have a nice core of young players to build around with Tyreke Evans and DeMarcus Cousins, but each of them needs to show more maturity before they can become a winning team.  Evans, who was plagued by a foot injury last season, needs to be able to stay healthy this season and rookie Jimmer Fredette needs to prove he can be a solid NBA player instead of just a likable fan favorite.

13. Phoenix Suns
An aging Steve Nash can only carry this team so far.  Ownership blew up a contending team last year and replaced talent like Amare Stoudemire and Jason Richardson with a slew of bad contracts for mediocre talent.  They did very little to improve this off-season, although a full season of Marcin Gortat (acquired mid-season last year from Orlando) in the middle will help solidify their frontcourt.

12. Golden State Warriors
New coach Mark Jackson wants to put an emphasis on defense (which is ironic considering he didn't play much defense when he was a player), but that's going to be tough to do when three of his starters are such terrible defenders.  Stephen Curry, Monta Ellis and David Lee can help keep them a fast paced, high scoring team, but it's going to take some time before they are capable of stopping anyone on the defensive end.  After striking out on free agent targets like Nene and DeAndre Jordon, they settled for overpaying Kwame Brown.  This isn't the right roster to play the defensive style Jackson claims they will, which means he'll either be forced to abandon that plan and go with their strengths, or this season could become a disaster.

11. Minnesota Timberwolves
They've assembled a collection of young talent, but it remains to be seen how they come together as a team.  Ricky Rubio finally arrives from overseas to run their offense and Kevin Love is developing into one of the league's best big men.  The biggest addition of all is replacing coach Kurt Rambis, along with his triangle system that was clearly a poor fit for this roster, with Rick Adelman.  This is a young team that could surprise.  At the very least, the future is starting to look brighter in Minnesota.

10. Utah Jazz
You have to like what the Jazz are doing to rebuild on the fly.  Their roster includes four lottery picks from the passed two drafts and they'll head into next year's draft with two other likely lottery picks (their own, plus Golden State's).  That should position them to be a major force in a few years, assuming those young players turn out well.  In the meantime, veterans Al Jefferson and Devin Harris will help try to keep the team competitive while the kids develop.  If any of those young guys has a surprise break out season, the Jazz have the potential to be a sleeper team that could sneak in the playoffs.

9. Houston Rockets
The Rockets have spent the passed few years trying to acquire the assets to make a big move, but their attempt to trade for Pau Gasol as part of the three way trade with the Lakers and Hornets was blocked by the league.  Without Gasol on board they were unable to convince Nene to leave Denver, leaving them without a legitimate center now that Yao has sadly been forced to retire.  Their scoring margin last year suggested they were better than their record showed, but still not good enough for a playoff spot unless one of the teams above them implodes.

8. Portland Trail Blazers
It's hard to imagine a team having a worse training camp than the Blazers.  Brandon Roy announced his troublesome knees were forcing him to retire, Greg Oden had another set back that could keep him out for another season and LaMarcus Aldridge has been suffering from a heart condition.  He's expected to be ok in the long run, but with the injury history of this team it's certainly a concern.  Aside from that, the Blazers still have a deep team.  Jamal Crawford was a free agent steal who should provide some much needed scoring punch off the bench.  As long as nothing else goes horribly wrong for them (we can't necessarily count on that) the Blazers should be competitive enough to sneak into a playoff spot.

7. LA Lakers
Their season has been in turmoil before it has even begun.  First they were robbed by the league of their chance to acquire Chris Paul.  Then they panicked when Lamar Odom complained about having his feelings hurt by the team for including him in the deal that never happened and made the mind boggling decision to ship him to Dallas while getting essentially nothing in return.  That cost them one of their biggest strengths, which was the ability to rotate three 7-footers in their frontcourt.  They have the league's worst combination of point guards, Andrew Bynum is suspended for the first 5 games and Kobe is dealing with a wrist injury.  They have a very good top three, but the rest of the roster after that is a mess.  

6. Denver Nuggets
They lack a super star that most of the top teams have, but they have one of the league's deepest teams.  In a condensed season, depth will be important, as they can keep quality fresh players on the court against weary opponents.  The Nuggets can roll out a 5 man second unit that is better than the starting line up for some teams.  It also means they are loaded with trade assets, which along with the trade exemption from last year's Carmelo deal, should make them a prime partner for teams looking to unload a contract near the trade deadline.  

5. Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies grabbed the 8 seed last year and used it to upset the top seeded Spurs in last year's postseason.  That was without Rudy Gay, who arguably is their best player.  Having him for a full season will only help.  As will having Tony Allen in the starting lineup from the start, after he was criminally underused to start last season.  Those two barely had the chance to play together before Gay got hurt last year, but when they each played at least 25 minutes in the same game the Grizzlies won 6 of 7 games.

4. LA Clippers
Chris Paul makes the Clippers legitimate for the first time in... forever?  The hype that comes with such a big acquisition may make them a bit overrated, but most of the top teams in the West have flaws, so the Clippers may be able to ride their star power to a top 4 seed.  CP3 and Blake Griffin will be a formidable pair, but they traded away most of their other assets to get Paul.  The hope is that Paul's presence will help DeAndre Jordon develop more of an offensive game by getting him the ball near the basket.  Chauncey Billups adds some veteran leadership, but it remains to be seen how he'll adjust to playing primarily off the ball.  They have a bit of a logjam in their backcourt, but Mo Williams could become an interesting trade chip down the line to add some needed frontcourt help.

3. Dallas Mavericks
The defending champs took a step back by allowing Tyson Chandler to get away, but it was a necessary step in order to ensure they will have the cap room needed to make a run at a top free agent next year.  If they end up with Dwight Howard in the summer of 2012, it'll be worth it, which is what Mark Cuban is gambling on.  In the meantime, the loss of Chandler is cushioned by the Mavs stealing Lamar Odom from LA.  Brendan Haywood can be sufficient enough at center, especially when the addition of Odom allows them to go small at times with Marion, Odom and Dirk up front.

2. San Antonio Spurs
People tend to forget due to their shocking first round exit last year, but the Spurs were the best team in the West in last year's regular season.  The tight schedule will be an issue for the old guys like Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili, but they have a deep roster that they've injected with some youth the past couple of seasons, which will allow Gregg Popovich to give his veterans some added rest along the way.

1.  Oklahoma City Thunder
OKC has long been considered a team on the rise, but it's time for the kids to grow up and turn a promising future into a dominant present.  Kevin Durant is one of the league's top players and should challenge for the scoring title.  If he and Russell Westbrook can sort out their Alpha Dog issues (it's Durant's team, no matter how much Westbrook may not want to play the role of the sidekick) then they will form an impressive pair.  Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins make up an imposing defensive frontcourt and James Harden looks ready to develop into a legitimate third scoring option.  They are young and deep, two factors that will play well into the hectic schedule.  Now is the time for the Thunder to take the leap we've all been expecting from them for years.

Eastern Conference

15. Charlotte Bobcats
This roster is devoid of any legitimate talent.  Tyrus Thomas and Corey Maggette might be decent role players on a good team, but when you're trying to figure out which of them is the team's best player, that's a problem. Rookies Kemba Walker and Bismack Biyombo could develop enough to take on that role by the end of the season, but they have a long way to go.

14. Cleveland Cavaliers
Year 2 of the post-Lebron era can't be any worse than the last, especially with the addition of the top overall pick, Kyrie Irving.  The last draft was considered to be fairly weak, so nobody is expecting Irving to develop into a super star, especially right away, but he should be a solid addition.  A healthy Anderson Varejao will be a big upgrade for their frontcourt to pair with 4th overall pick Tristan Thompson.  The rebuilding process is going to be slow and brutal, but they are on the right path.

13. Toronto Raptors
Former Mavs assistant coach Dwayne Casey has been brought in to teach this team how to play some defense.  Good luck, considering the roster they have.  They have some capable scorers, such as Andrea Bargnani and DeMar DeRozan, but neither of them contributes much else aside from putting the ball in the hoop.  Toronto is banking on the coaching change helping them to diversify their games.

12. Washington Wizards
Many are predicting a break out season for sophomore John Wall, which by itself should improve the team.  They have a solid group that also includes JaVale McGee, Andray Blatche and Nick Young that should make for an entertaining team.  The group needs to mature enough to play like a team and not make so many bonehead mistakes that sabotaged many of their games last season if they hope to improve.

11. Detroit Pistons
Rodney Stuckey and the emerging Greg Monroe are probably their best players, but neither is an All-Star.  Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva are still clogging their cap room and unfortunately they can only use the amnesty clause on one of them, which will probably happen next off-season when the savings will allow them to make some moves in free agency.  The Pistons have a few talented pieces and were probably a better team than they showed last year, when they clearly quit on their coach.  Lawrence Frank will come in to attempt to turn them around and should at least improve the team's defense. 

10. New Jersey Nets
They could soar up the list if they manage to pull off a trade for Dwight Howard, but until then, Deron Williams isn't likely to carry this group to the playoffs by himself.  They need to get more out of Brook Lopez, especially on the boards, but re-signing Kris Humphries will help.  Bringing him back on a one year deal was a savvy move that will help them this season without eating into their cap room from 2012.  Separating himself from the Kardashian circus will only help his play.  They also have cap room to sign Andrei Kirilenko, which if nothing else would give their Russian billionaire owner someone to talk to.

9. Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks are one of the league's best defensive teams, but they lack a scoring punch.  Andrew Bogut should improve now that he's further removed from a gruesome elbow injury.  Brandon Jennings has proved capable of lighting up the scoreboard, but he hasn't done it consistently, and his putrid field goal percentage can be a detriment to the team.  He needs to make better decisions with the ball and with his shot selection.  Stephen Jackson could help handle some of the scoring load, as long as he can stay healthy and motivated, but that doesn't seem likely considering not only is he currently injured, but he's also demanding a new contract.

8. Atlanta Hawks
Overspending on Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams has put the Hawks in a tough spot where they are now unable to improve a core that has been stuck under the ceiling of a second round playoff exit for years.  It's already cost them Jamal Crawford and down the line could force them to trade Josh Smith or Al Horford.  Kirk Hinrich is also expected to miss about half the season, presenting a big problem for their depleted backcourt.  They'll have to rely on improvement from Jeff Teague, along with whatever they can get out of Tracey McGrady, which almost certainly will be a downgrade from what they had last year.

7. Philadelphia 76ers
Jrue Holiday is developing into a quality young point guard and Evan Turner has to be able to improve over his disappointing rookie campaign.  Neither is likely to turn into a star for this team though, which is something they really need.  Andre Iguodala is a good player, but he's miscast in the role of their go-to guy.  Elton Brand showed flashes of his previous self last year, but it's unlikely he'll be able to hold up over this year's schedule.  On the bright side, all their key rotation players will be the same as last year.  That consistency should be a factor in a season where a shortened training camp will make it difficult for teams to build chemistry. 

6. Indiana Pacers
The Pacers are in a good position, as they are loaded with young talent and cap room.  Danny Granger is the closest thing they have to an All-Star caliber player, but the continued development of youngsters like Paul George, Darren Collison and Roy Hibbert will help them improve.  They also surprisingly managed to lure David West to join them for a reasonable deal.  If his knee has recovered from last year's season ending surgery, he could end up being a steal.  This is a young team with nothing but upside, with a chance to rise even higher if one of the teams above them gets derailed by injuries or trades.

5. Orlando Magic
The Magic are hard to predict because we don't know what the future holds for Dwight Howard.  He's talented enough to carry this team to the playoffs by himself, but we can't assume he'll stay in Orlando all season given the trade rumors that have swirled around him for months.  Even if he does stay, can we be assured that he'll stay motivated to play up to his potential if he's stuck on a team that he's already asked to be traded from?  There's not much talent around him, so if D12 isn't at his best, this team isn't going anywhere.

4. New York Knicks
A full season of Amare and Carmelo together will be a good start, but the addition of Tyson Chandler is just as important.  The Knicks biggest issue is that they don't play any defense, but Chandler will change that by protecting the rim and covering for Stoudemire's deficiencies on that end.  The problem is they had to amnesty Billups to sign Chandler, which leaves them without a reliable point guard option in an offense that demands one (Baron Davis?  Please, he's in terrible shape and already injured).  They gave up most of their assets to get Melo last year, which cripples their depth.  That could prove to be their downfall this year given the tough schedule, especially when you consider the injury history of Amare and Chandler.  It will be a surprise if they both make it through the season without missing significant time.  They could be dangerous come playoff time, but they are a step below the elite for the regular season.

3. Boston Celtics
This will probably be the last rodeo for the Big Three before Boston inevitably has to blow it up and re-build around Rajon Rondo.  They'll give it all they've got to win another title together, but the schedule is hardly conducive to their aging starters.  Pierce, Garnett and Allen were remarkably healthy last season, but they can't necessarily count on that again.  Doc Rivers will be forced to micro-manage their minutes to keep them fresh. The same goes for Jermaine O'Neal, who despite playing only 24 games last season, enters the season as the Celtic's only viable center.  They'll be forced to play a lot of small ball, with undersized Brandon Bass, Chris Wilcox and possibly even KG seeing time at the position.  The bench looks solid overall and should be a very good defensive unit, but it's unclear where they will get any scoring from off the bench.  Jeff Green could have filled that role until an unfortunate heart ailment robbed him of the entire season.  The starting lineup still makes them one of the league's most dangerous teams, but as has always been the case since this core was assembled, it will all come down to health.  Right now there are just too many question marks to consider them one of the top teams in the East.

2. Miami Heat
As previously discussed as one of the benefits for other teams, quality depth will be a big factor this season. There are few teams that signify a lack of depth more than the Heat, who surround their trio of LeBron, Wade and Bosh with a roster full of cast offs.  That proved to be one of their down falls in last year's Finals (along with LeBron's bizarre disappearing act in the 4th quarter).  This year their depth will be slightly improved, as they should get healthier seasons out of Haslem and Miller.  Shane Battier is one of the new additions, and while he may be well past his prime, he's still a valuable defender that can still hit open shots.  Point guard and center are still big holes for this team, but LeBron and Wade handle the ball enough to partially negate the need for a point guard and they'll likely play small against most opponents, using Haslem and Bosh up front.  Their star trio are all young enough that the busy schedule shouldn't take too much of a toll on them, but it also increases the possibility of one of them getting injured.  If any of those three miss an extended period of time with injury it could cause them to drop in the standings.  

1. Chicago Bulls
The Bulls were the top team in the East in last year's regular season and they should only improve this year.  They should expect better health from Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah, who rarely got to play together through the first half of last season.  They also added Rip Hamilton to the starting lineup, after he was amnestied from Detroit.  He may have lost a step from his prime, but he's still a huge upgrade over Keith Bogans, as a solid player that can hit mid-range shots and provide championship tested leadership.  They are one of the league's best defensive teams, and should only improve as youngsters like Asik and Gibson develop.  To top it off, they also have the reigning MVP.  At just 23 years old, Derrick Rose still has room to improve, making this Bulls team even more dangerous.  

No comments:

Post a Comment