Celtics dream scenario

The Boston Celtics will soon be at a cross roads.  This may be their final season to make one last run with their existing core before they are inevitably forced to start rebuilding.  With the contracts of Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen set to expire at the end of the season, we may be approaching the end of the Big Three era in Boston. Rebuilding processes can often be long, painful experiences.  With a few crafty moves, Boston has a chance to skip that process and jump right into a new era with a new championship caliber core.

After this season, the only contracts remaining on Boston's salary cap will be Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce and Avery Bradley.  We can assume first round draft pick JaJuan Johnson and possibly second round pick E'Twaun Moore will also be included, along with potentially whoever we draft in the first round in the next draft.  This is also dependent upon the team's decisions with their current free agent group, which includes Glenn Davis and Jeff Green, but for the sake of this scenario, let's assume that they are all either involved in a sign-and-trade deal or allowed to walk as free agents.  That would leave Boston with potentially 6 players under contract for next season, totaling approximately $30 million, which is well under the $58 million salary cap.  That leaves plenty of room to sign one of the top prizes on the 2012 free agent market.  Boston isn't a warm weather city that top free agents desire, but it's a good market with a rich history, a committed ownership group and strong leadership.  Will that be enough to lure in a top free agent?  Considering those top targets include two point guards (Derron Williams and Chris Paul), that narrows the field of options as long as Rondo is still on the roster.  That leaves Dwight Howard as the most likely target, but is Rondo and an aging Pierce enough to convince him to come to Boston?  Unlikely.

To change that, the Celtics may be forced to shake things up even more.  The only trade-able asset they have on their roster is Rondo.  Rumors have swirled that Boston would be willing to part with Rondo for the right deal and it's no secret that the right deal includes Chris Paul.  New Orleans is in the difficult position of knowing that they can't afford to hang on to their star point guard and will almost certainly be forced to either trade him or watch him walk as a free agent after the season.  As has been previously reported, Paul seems to have already squashed this rumor by stating he would not be willing to sign an extension to stay in Boston.  With the uncertainty of the team's future beyond this season, it's fair to see why he'd be hesitant to commit to the Celtics, but that doesnt' mean they can't change his mind.  After all, Kevin Garnett didn't want to come to Boston either, but the Celtics changed his mind by going out and trading for Ray Allen.  If the Celtics can lure in another star to join him in Boston, perhaps Paul can still be persuaded


New Orleans has yet to give any indication that they intend to trade Paul, no matter now likely it may seem that they must.  Even if they did, perhaps they could get better offers than what Boston can offer.  For now, let's put those outside factors aside.  A package including Rondo for Paul could work if a third team gets involved to help make the salaries match.  Boston could also offer Jeff Green or Glenn Davis in a sign-and-trade as part of the package.  Danny Ainge has proven capable of being creative enough to put together an enticing package to lure in a big star, so he could find a way to make it work, so long as Paul is willing to come to Boston.

Let's say the Celtics did pull off a Rondo-Green for Paul trade, while Boston also lets their remaining free agents walk.  That leaves Boston with a roster of CP3, Pierce, Bradley, Johnson, Moore and a rookie from the next draft that should total approximately $37 million, plus about $3 million in cap holds to account for the empty roster spots.  That still leaves Boston about $18 million under the cap to sign a max free agent like Howard.

If CP3 could be assured that D12 would be joining him in Boston then he may give some more consideration to that option.  Both of these stars supposedly have the Knicks as their destination of choice, but as ESPN's John Hollinger explains, the Knicks have very little chance of signing either of them if they make it to free agency unless they are willing to take a huge pay cut.  Even then, it would mean filling out the rest of their roster with mostly cast offs playing for the veteran's minimum.  Given the amount of money they have already committed to Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony, adding a third max player would be nearly impossible under the new CBA.

Granted, convincing both Paul and Howard to join forces in Boston may be a pipe dream as well, but at least it's feasible.  A foundation of CP3, D12, Pierce and a collection of moderately promising young players around them should be a championship caliber team.  They would then also be under the luxury tax, which would allow them the use of the full mid-level exception to bolster their roster.   If an aging Pierce begins to rapidly deteriorate at any point in the next three years of his existing contract, they also have the option of using the amnesty clause to waive him, freeing up cap room to make more additions.

Upgrading from Rondo to Paul may be enough to make Boston a favorite for a title this year while KG and Ray are still around.  It's also possible that if  Howard was later added to the mix that those two would be willing to re-sign with Boston on cheap short term deals.  A starting line up of CP3, Allen, Pierce, KG and D12 would be the envy of all the league.

This isn't to say that any of this is likely to happen.  Other teams will surely make compelling offers to New Orleans and Orlando to attempt to trade for their stars.  Even if they reach free agency, it's not likely that Boston is at the top of either of their wish lists.  At least not now.  Four years ago Ainge wheeled and dealed his way into two moves that drastically altered the landscape of the entire league when he assembled the current version of Boston's Big Three.  If he can do it again with a younger set of stars the the Celtics could be well positioned to remain contenders for years to come.  Not saying it's going to happen, but it's nice to dream about.