Marlins, Angels heat up Winter Meetings

Dallas is known for it's scorching hot weather in the summer time, but a couple of teams are cranking up the heat during this year's Winter Meetings.  The Miami Marlins and LA Angels have made the biggest splashes this off-season, reeling in some of the biggest names on the free agent market.

Miami Marlins
The new look Marlins will open their season in a new stadium, with new uniforms and a few new faces.  Miami entered the off-season with the intention of spending some money.  With the revenue they expect to make from their new stadium, Miami insisted that they would be increasing their payroll up toward the $100 million range for the upcoming season, which is up from the approximately $57 million they spent last season (the 7th lowest payroll in the majors).  So far they have yet to disappoint, kicking off the spending spree this off-season by signing Jose Reyes to a six year, $106 million deal.

The Marlins made it known from the start of the off season that Reyes was one of their main targets, which comes as a bit of a surprise considering their roster already includes a multi-time All-Star that happens to play the same short stop position.  Hanley Ramirez is one of the game's other elite short stops, but his size and decreasing range may make him a better fit for third base.  The Marlins intend to move Ramirez over to the hot corner in a move that has previously been made by greats such as Cal Ripkin Jr. and Alex Rodriguez.  Reyes is a better defensive short stop, and while it remains to be seen how Ramirez would fare defensively at third, the change should benefit their infield defense.  The problem is, Ramirez is reportedly less than thrilled with the idea of switching positions.  He has a reputation as being a bit of a diva, who can be difficult to deal with when things aren't going his way.  Already there are rumors that Reyes' arrival could trigger a trade demand from Ramirez.  While trading Ramirez could free up even more payroll space to make more moves, as well as bring a bounty of assets in return, it's not exactly what the Marlins had in mind when they acquired Reyes.

Assuming Ramirez can be convinced by new manager Ozzie Guillen to buy into the team's plan, the NL batting champions from two of the past three seasons will form a formidable 1-2 punch at the top of the Marlins line up.

Reyes does come with some additional risk aside from just hurting the feelings of Hanley Ramirez.  He has a lengthy injury history, most notably concerning his hamstrings.  He's never played more than 161 games in a season and has missed a total of 191 games over the past three seasons.  While the 28 year old star should still be in his prime for the duration of this contract, his injury history suggests he may break down sooner than expected.  Nonetheless, it's a risk worth taking.  When healthy, Reyes is clearly one of the game's best players at perhaps the most difficult position on the field to fill.  The Marlins needed a big name star to help draw crowds to their new stadium and they got their man.

A high powered offense is nice to have, but it's long been said that pitching wins championships.  Outside of injury prone ace Josh Johnson, the Marlins lacked depth in their rotation.  That's why the signing of Mark Buehrle (4 years, $58 million) may be just as important as the Reyes signing.  While Buehrle isn't nearly as big a star, he's a solid addition as a durable workhorse that manager Ozzie Guillen knows well from their days together in Chicago.  He's reached double figures in wins and topped 200 innings in each of his 11 full seasons in the majors.  Last year he was 13-9 with a 3.59 ERA for a struggling White Sox team.  Those numbers should improve with a move to the NL, along with what should be a better offense to support him.  There is some concern regarding his low strike out rate (career average 5.07 K/9), but Buehrle has always managed to remain effective without relying on strike outs.  He's given up an average of 1 HR/9 in his career, despite playing in the launching pad that is US Cellular field, so that number should also decline in Miami.  Buehrle is 32 years old, but even at the end of his contract he should still be a solid investment.

The Marlins also shored up their bullpen by adding proven veteran closer Heath Bell (3 years, $27 million), who has saved over 40 games in each of the past three seasons for the Padres.  The concern with Bell is that his numbers were aided by the cavernous outfield of Petco Park and solid defense that prevented fly balls from falling for hits or from sailing out of the ball park.  We don't yet know how the Marlins new stadium will play in terms of how it impacts pitchers, but their previous stadium was fairly neutral, so we can probably expect the new stadium to be similar.  That makes Bell less of a risk than if he were to play in hitter friendly parks, such as Fenway Park or Yankee Stadium.  The volatile nature of relievers makes a three year investment a bit risky, but Bell is a good bet to remain effective for at least for the majority of the deal.  The Marlins are clearly pushing to become contenders, so in order to do so they needed a reliable closer.

LA Angels
The Angels stunned the baseball world by coming out of nowhere to lure in Albert Pujols with a 10 year, $250 million mega deal.  The three time MVP has been the league's most feared hitter over the past decade.  His average season (.328 AVG, .420 OBP, .617 SLG) is better than the best season of most players careers.  He's on the verge of joining the 500 Home Run club (currently at 445) and has a chance to chase the all time HR record over the next decade.  The lure of the milestones Pujols is sure to rack up over the next several years should be a big boost for the Angels attendance and make him a marketing gold mine in the process.  He's the big time run producer that this Angels lineup sorely needed (as a team, they were 10th in the AL in runs scored and 9th in SLG last season).  He's also a proven winner, having earned two World Series rings with the Cardinals, including one last season.

Now for the downside.  Pujols is coming off the worst statistical season of his career, in which he failed to hit .300 or drive in 100 RBIs for the first time in his career (granted his numbers were .299 and 99 RBIs, so that's close enough).  He's also 32 years old (if you believe what's on his birth certificate, which many people don't), which means in the best case scenario, he'll be 42 years old in the final season of this contract.  Most players, even the elite ones, don't play passed their late 30's.  Even if Pujols does hang on that long, it's only fair to assume he won't be nearly as effective as a hitter in the later years of the contract.  He may already be starting the decline phase of his career, so the Angels are paying big money for past performance.  At least by moving to the AL it allows him to move to DH in later years, which should help his body hold up a little longer and extend his career.  He will likely remain as one of the game's best hitters for the next few years, but the majority of this deal could end up being a sunk cost.

In the short term, Pujols is a massive upgrade at first base.  They don't know if they can rely on Kendrys Morales, after he's missed most of the past two seasons with injury and may never be the same again.  Mark Trumbo was a Rookie of the Year candidate with 30+ HR potential, but his low .291 OBP means he makes far too many outs.  They can likely market him to other teams in search of a young power hitter to trade for assets to help them in other areas.  With a crowded outfield forcing Bobby Abreu to be their primary DH, there doesn't seem to be a fit left on this team for Trumbo.  If Pujols performs close to his career averages for the next few seasons than he is absolutely worth the $25 million per year the Angels are shelling out for him.  The problem is, there's no way he'll be worth anything close to that in the last few years of the deal.  It's a big long term risk for a great short term gain.

The Angels also beefed up their already impressive starting rotation by signing the top free agent pitcher on the market, C.J. Wilson (5 years, $77.5).  He'll join Jered Weaver and Dan Haren to form arguably the best trio of pitchers in baseball.  Wilson is coming off an All-Star season where he won 16 games with a 2.94 ERA playing for the AL Champion Texas Rangers.  He's 31, but after spending the start of his career in the bullpen, there's not a lot of mileage on his arm.  In his two seasons in the rotation, he's topped 200 innings both times and won at least 15 games.  He moves from a very hitter friendly ball park in Texas to a pitcher friendly field in LA, but the home run prevention that his new stadium provides is partly negated by the fact that Wilson is primarily a ground ball pitcher.  The Angels are known for deploying good defensive teams, so their infield should be adequate enough to make him effective, even if their defense is a bit of a drop off from the defensive wizards like Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus that he was used to in Texas.  His ugly postseason is a concern (5.79 ERA, 1.71 WHIP in 5 starts last postseason), but now that he won't have the pressure of being relied on as the staff ace, it should help stabilize those numbers.

The Angels dished out a lot of money this season to transform themselves into instant contenders and should get back into the playoffs for the first time since 2009.  Considering that signing Wilson meant stealing him away from their main division rival, these moves could vault the Angels ahead of the two time defending AL Champs as the favorite in the West.  The addition of another Wild Card to the postseason format also will increase their chances of playing in October, making now the time to make a bold move to make a title run.  These moves may be bold, but they are also very expensive.  LA already had the 4th highest payroll in the majors last season.  Unless they can find a way to shed some other salaries (good luck finding a taker for Vernon Wells) they will jump up into the tier of the top free spending teams, such as the Red Sox, Phillies and Yankees.  They may regret these contracts down the line (especially the Pujols deal, which is nearly a lock to fail to provide positive ROI by the end of the deal), but if they can win a title or two in the meantime, it'll be worth it.