We've entered the final third of the regular season, a time when momentum begins to build for the contenders for the league's Most Valuable Player. An unofficial requirement is for candidates to have a strong finish to the season, preferably in helping their team clinch a playoff spot. Looking at the field of candidates in the American League, it's clear that there will be several players in the race. Several of those deserving candidates happen to make up the top third of the lineup for the Red Sox. Determining the front runner for the MVP race is hard enough, especially when it's difficult to even determine who the best player on the league's best team has been.
While there is certainly no guarantee that the eventual MVP winner will come from Boston, their current first place standing and league leading offense gives their candidates a leg up in the discussion. Toronto's Jose Bautista may be the league's best hitter right now, while the Yankees' Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeria should get consideration as well. There will be time later to sort out the league MVP, but for now, let's try to determine which Red Sox player has been most valuable to the team thus far: Adrian Gonzalez, Jacoby Ellsbury or Dustin Pedroia.
Here is a breakdown of their season statistics through August 3rd.
Avg OBP SLG Runs HRs RBIs Steals WAR UZR/150
Gonzalez .357 .416 .568 77 18 90 1 5.3 11.0
Ellsbury .317 .373 .513 82 18 65 31 5.7 11.0
Pedroia .314 .407 .487 73 15 57 22 6.8 22.4
*Data from FanGraphs.com
The data above shows that each of these players is having a fantastic season. While they are all close in several categories, there are some categories where a player's dominance may help separate them from the group.
The Case for Gonzalez
A-Gon leads the American League in Batting Average, Hits, and RBIs, while placing in the top 3 in several other hitting categories. Since being acquired from San Diego for a slew of highly rated prospects, Gonzalez has not disappointed in his first season in Boston. Finally free of the confines of Petco Park, he has unleashed his bat on the friendly confines of Fenway Park, putting him on pace for the best season of his career.
Gonzalez also rates as an elite defensive player, the best at his position in the AL by most metrics. However, first base isn't considered to be as important of a defensive position as the up the middle spots his teammates he's competing with play at.
Many voters for the MVP award have historically favored sluggers that drive in a ton of runs. Gonzalez certainly fits that requirement, as shown by his league leading RBI total. He also ranks 2nd in the league in wRC+, an advanced metric that shows the number of runs per plate appearance the player produces, scaled to where 100 is considered average. The metric is also league and park adjusted, making it one of the better statistics for measuring run production. Only Jose Bautista has a higher mark in this category, and given that he plays for a team out of contention, that may end up taking him out of this race. For the purposes of this discussion, debating amongst the top Red Sox players, Gonzalez is clearly the best run producer of the bunch.
The Case for Ellsbury
The speedy outfielder has recovered from rib injuries that cost him the majority of the 2010 season and has bounced back to produce the greatest year of his young career. He has become the premier lead off hitter in the league, setting the table for the league's most dominant offense. When Carl Crawford's arrival prompted many to push for him to hit at the top of the lineup, Terry Francona stood by his philosophy that his team is at it's best with Ellsbury in the lead off spot. So far he has not disappointed and has helped make his manager look very smart for sticking with him.
Most surprising about his break out season has been his increase in power. He had previously never hit double digits in Home Runs, but already has 18 this year. He has also already set a career high in doubles, while being on pace to set career marks in just about every category.
While he may not eclipse the 70 stolen bases he had in 2009, his current total of 31 steals is still amongst the league leaders. While the 55 point gap in slugging percentage between he and Gonzalez may seem steep, when you factor in their stolen base differential and consider a base hit plus a steal the same as a double, then the gap narrows considerably.
Despite his great speed, Ellsbury wasn't always known as a great defensive player. While he would make the occasional highlight reel catch, in his earlier years he would often get a bad jump on balls or take a bad route that would prevent him from getting to balls that someone with his speed should get to. Factor in his below average throwing arm and it was no surprise that the Red Sox acquired Mike Cameron to start the 2010 season to man centerfield, pushing Ellsbury to the less demanding left field position. This year has been a different story, as not only has Ellsbury reclaimed his centerfield spot, but he's excelled at it. He ranks third amongst AL outfielders in UZR and trails only the Angels' Peter Bourjos for centerfielders. His improved defense at one of the diamond's most important defensive positions is another reason to support Ellsbury's case for MVP.
The Case for Pedroia
The 2008 MVP already has a track record for bringing home the hardware, so his place on this list is hardly without precedence. The pesky second baseman has a closet full of awards, including Rookie of the Year, Silver Sluggers and Gold Gloves.
Winning an MVP award typically requires a strong second half finish, and nobody has started the second half of the season as well as Dustin Pedroia. The AL Player of the Month hit a scorching .411 last month, which included a 25 game hit streak, while also powering up to deliver 8 more Home Runs. His 1.188 OPS for the month was off the charts, helping to bring his season OPS close to a very respectable .900 mark.
On the surface, Pedroia seems to be right in the middle statistically, without dominating any one category. He falls short of the impressive batting average and RBI production of Gonzalez and doesn't quite match Ellsbury's speed. However, he does provide solid production across all categories. Like Ellsbury, he's not counted on to be a run producer because he hits at the top of the line-up, but his high OBP is one of the primary reasons why Gonzalez has such staggering RBI totals. Gonzalez has more plate appearances with runners on base thanks to the ability of Ellsbury and Pedroia to get on base ahead of him.
What really separates Pedroia from his teammates isn't just what he can do with his bat, but also with his glove. While both of his teammates are having very good defensive seasons, Pedroia rates far better. Not only does he rank as the top second baseman in UZR, but he's second in the entire league in that category. A middle infielder's job is one of the most demanding defensive positions and Pedroia has handled it brilliantly, making diving plays, turning double plays and collecting anything hit his way like a vacuum cleaner.
Pedroia's elite level combination of hitting and fielding are the reasons why he is 2nd in the league in WAR (wins above replacement), with his 6.8 rating falling just behind league leader Jose Bautista (6.9). Ellsbury (5.7) and Gonzalez (5.3) also rate in the top 5 in the league, but Pedroia adds over a full win more than what his teammates provide.
And the winner is...
It's a tough call because all three have had such impressive seasons. There's still plenty of baseball left to be played, but to this point in the season, I would say the MVP of the Red Sox has been....
Dustin Pedroia!
His gritty dirt dog approach embodies the mentality of this team. He plays hard every game and is capable of carrying the team on his back, as he's shown over the past month.
Gonzalez gets credit for being the team's best run producer, but at least some of the credit for that needs to go to the guys that hit in front of him. He may run away with the RBI title, but his Home Run total is a bit disappointing for a slugging first baseman. Considering he's tied with Ellsbury and not far ahead of Pedroia, two players not expected to show as much power, he needs to step it up in the power department to get more consideration. He also plays the least demanding defensive position of the group, so despite his strong play in the field, that has to be held against him (as unfair as that may be).
Depriving Ellsbury of winning the debate was a tough choice. He has Pedroia beat in every major offensive category, except for OBP (which happens to be perhaps the most important statistic, since the goal of every at bat is to not create outs). For the most part though, the gap in their offensive production is fairly minimal, while Pedroia has been dominant on the defensive end. While Ellsbury has been great, Pedroia has been outstanding, and that edge helps make up for the difference at the plate.
If Most Valuable Player is defined as the player that plays the biggest part in helping their team win, then Pedroia's all around game helps him take the award. According to his WAR rating, he adds over a win more to the Red Sox than his teammates do. I want my MVP to be the guy that helps add to the win column, and nobody on this team does that better than Dustin Pedroia.
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