Monday, August 1, 2011

MLB Trade Deadline Winners & Losers

The MLB trade deadline passed us by yesterday afternoon, giving teams their last opportunity to make a trade to upgrade their roster without requiring players to pass through waivers.  With so many teams still in the race, particularly in the NL, it limited the number of sellers, leaving some buyers unsatisfied.

Surprisingly, some big names that were swirling in the rumor mill heading toward the deadline, such as Heath Bell and B.J. Upton, did not get moved.  Meanwhile, some contending teams expected to make a move, like the Yankees, were mysteriously silent.

Let's sort out which teams were successful at the deadline and which teams dropped the ball.

Winners

Philadelphia Phillies
They gave up some promising young prospects, but also filled a big hole on their roster by trading for Hunter Pence.  For a contending team that's practically clinched a playoff spot already, improving their chances to win in October was a chance they could not pass on.  Pence is an immediate upgrade in the outfield.  He could take over for struggling rookie Dominic Brown, or be used to replace the rapidly declining Raul Ibanez in left.  The Phillies have a dominant rotation, but needed a boost to their offense to back them up.  Pence essentially replaces the production they lost when they allowed Jayson Werth to walk away, but he's much cheaper and they will still be able to keep him after this season.

San Francisco Giants
The Giants were desperate to add some punch to their anemic offense, and they succeeded by adding perhaps the best bat on the market in Carlos Beltran.  He's the legitimate middle of the order bat that they've lacked all year.  He may not run or play defense as well as he used to, but they got him to hit, which is one thing he's proved he can still do as long as he's healthy. 
They also made separate moves to acquire Jeff Keppinger and Orlando Cabrera to shore up their infield depth.  Both provide low cost marginal upgrades.  O-Cab brings some essential intangibles to the table. Perhaps it's a coincidence, but when he goes to a new team he always seems to be a spark plug that helps the team improve (Red Sox in '04, Reds in '10, Indians this year, just to name a few examples).

Atlanta Braves
They lost out on the sweepstakes for both Beltran and Pence, but may have ended up ahead in the end by acquiring Michael Bourn.  He doesn't get the attention he deserves due to his lack of power and RBI totals, but he is an elite center fielder that gets on base and routinely leads the NL in stolen bases.  His 3.6 WAR (according to FanGraphs) is a full point ahead of his former teammate, Pence, and right in line with Beltran's.  Yet he came to Atlanta at a much cheaper price than what the Giants and Phillies paid.  He's a great fit in their line-up, which has gotten very little production out of the lead off spot. Excuse the bad pun, but this deal appears to be a steal for the Braves.

New York Mets
You don't have to be a buyer to be a winner at the deadline.  The Mets have no chance at the postseason, making them clear sellers.  They unloaded two high cost players in Francisco Rodriguez and Carlos Beltran and got some good prospects in return.  They received San Francisco's best prospect, pitcher Zack Wheeler, which is a much better haul than most anticipated they would get for a 2 month rental of Beltran.
The money they save could go towards the funds they will need to re-sign Jose Reyes this off-season.  Beltran wasn't going to be back, and by trading K-Rod they remove the fear that he could earn his ridiculous $17.5 million player option that kicks in if he finishes 55 games this season, which he was on pace to do.  As part of the deal, it now becomes a mutual option for the Brewers, with a $4 million buyout, making it less risky for the Brewers to acquire him.

Pittsburgh Pirates
The moves they made were relatively minor, but they are big upgrades.  After so many years of losing, it's nice to see the Pirates making a run at the playoffs.  These moves should help.  Derek Lee is clearly on the decline, but he's been hot lately and can't be any worse than Lyle Overbay.  The addition of Ryan Ludwick to the outfield is an upgrade over Matt Diaz, and his numbers should increase now that he's hitting in a better line-up, outside of Petco Park. 
Neither of these guys are difference makers, but they didn't give up any of their top prospects to get them, so it's a small risk that could help them stay in the race down the stretch.

Texas Rangers
They didn't make the same kind of splash they made last year when they traded for Cliff Lee, but this year's moves may end up being just as impactful.  The biggest question marks for their team was in the bullpen, which they shored by by acquiring two high caliber set up men - Mike Adams and Koji Uehara.  Joining closer Neftali Feliz at the back end of the bullpen, the Rangers now have a shut down trio to finish games.  Both are also under contract for next year, so they could consider making one the closer next year if they intend to move Feliz into the starting rotation.

Toronto Blue Jays
They took advantage of the fact that Colby Rasmus was unhappy with how he was being treated in St. Louis and acquired the talented outfielder on the cheap.  Despite not giving up a highly rated prospect, they acquired a player with the tools to be a very good player.

Red Sox
I'm having trouble putting this in the "winners" category, since I'm not a huge fan of Erik Bedard.  His injury history is nearly as worrisome as Rich Harden's, who the Sox failed to acquire after his medical reports showed too many warning signs.  Somehow Bedard past the medical exam, but he could fall apart again at any time.  The red flags with Bedard don't just stop at the physical issues, but also the mental ones.  He can probably best be compared as the pitching version of J.D. Drew, and not just because of the nagging injuries that he's piled up.  That's not exactly a comparison that will endear him to Red Sox Nation. His former GM from his days in Baltimore is on record saying he doesn't believe Bedard could succeed in a big market and while he had the skills to be an ace, he lacked the desire to be the top guy.  He just doesn't seem like the type of guy that really cares.  Is that someone we want taking with us in a pennant race?
The reason this is a win for the Red Sox is because it fills their biggest need, which is adding depth to the back end of the rotation.  With Clay Buchholz still out indefinitely, there are no safe options behind Lester and Beckett in the rotation.  John Lackey has been a mess this year, Tim Wakefield is approaching his 100th birthday and we don't know what we'll get from youngsters like Andrew Miller or Felix Doubrant.  I certainly wouldn't feel good about any of those options starting Game 3 in a playoff series.
For all his faults, Bedard still has great stuff, as shown by the fact that he's still striking out nearly a batter per inning.  If he's healthy for the next couple of months then he could be a great addition to an already great team.  If he falls apart or lands on the DL, then at least they didn't give up much to get him.  None of the prospects the Sox gave up in the deal were on the 40 man roster, so none of them likely had a future in Boston anyway. Given the skills Bedard clearly still has, he's worth the risk.

Losers

New York Yankees
This isn't an example of a Red Sox fan looking to hate on the Yankees.  The reason they are on the losing end of the deadline is because despite having several holes to fill on their roster, they were shockingly silent at the deadline.  Their rotation is full of question marks after C.C. Sabathia and their bullpen could use some help after being decimated by injuries.  They also could have used a defensive minded utility infielder to back up the A-Rod and Jeter, as Eduardo Nunez is clearly not the answer.  Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make, and they may have been right not to sell the farm for someone like Ubaldo Jimenez, but when October rolls around they better hope that either Sabathia is able to pitch every other game or Bartolo Colon gets another injection of stem cells, or else they may be in trouble.

Cleveland Indians
Nothing against Ubaldo Jimenez, who I think is still a very good pitcher, despite some struggles this year, but this deal makes little sense for Cleveland.  A fast start to the season where they clearly overachieved put them atop a weak AL Central division, but lately they have come crashing back to earth.  They have lost 8 of their last 10 games and have fallen 2.5 games behind Detroit in the division.  If Ubaldo pitches like an ace then perhaps that will be enough to reclaim the lead, but even with him in the rotation they appear to be an early exit in the playoffs at best.
It's always a concern when an elite pitchers moves from the NL to the AL, where the deeper lineups that include a DH can be far more brutal.  Yet Jimenez also escapes the thin air of Coors Field and ends up in a division that doesn't have many line-ups he should fear.  After a dominating start in the first two months of last season, Jimenez has regressed.  He's lost a few MPH off his fastball, which is a concern, but at 94-95 MPH he can still be effective.  His high ERA could be blamed on his home ballpark, as he's been much better on the road (3.38 ERA) and his FIP suggests he's pitched much better than his ERA would suggest.  He is still striking out hitters, and the move to Cleveland should help lower the amount of HRs allowed.
Jimenez should improve with his new team and will certainly help the Indians.  He's also not a rental, as he's locked up to a favorable contract for a few more years.  But the Indians aren't winning anything this year.  Their fast start fooled them into thinking they should be buyers, when in fact they should still be building for the future.  They gave up a large haul in this deal, so if it doesn't work out then they will have set themselves back on what was shaping up to be a promising future.

San Diego Padres
Everyone expected Heath Bell to be on the move, but once the deadline passed he remains the Padres closer.  Perhaps it's a sign they believe they can re-sign him this off-season, but otherwise it appears they missed an opportunity to get good value on a highly sought after asset.  An elite closer is an unnecessary luxury for a losing team and there was no shortage of contenders looking to upgrade their bullpens. 
Instead of trading away Bell, they gave up elite set-up man Mike Adams, who is cheaper and under contract for next year.  They could have kept him and made him the closer for the rest of the year, plus next year.  Instead, they traded him, but kept Bell, and obtained a lesser package of prospects in return.
They also traded away Ryan Ludwick, which was expected, but with numerous teams interested in acquiring his bat, you'd think they could have done better than a "player to be named later."  Too early to judge that deal until we know who that player is, but they probably could have done better.

Chicago Cubs
This is a team that should have been in fire sale mode, but was fairly quiet at the deadline.  Nobody is touching Alfonso Soriano's contract, but they could have gotten rid of some of their other big veteran contracts, like Carlos Zambrano, Aramis Rameriz, or Carlos Pena.  They could have saved some money and/or picked up some decent prospects, but instead they did nothing.  Perhaps they tried and nobody wanted what they were offering, but when the team clearly needs to rebuild and the only bad contract they are able to unload is Koskue Fukodome then they clearly weren't trying hard enough.

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