The NFL lockout has ended, players are in camp to prepare for the upcoming season and it's time for the rest of us to start preparing as well - for Fantasy Football that is. Due to the shortened off-season, teams have been frantically scrambling to sign free agents to fill out their rosters, leaving us less time to properly prepare. This means it will be even more important this year to prepare for your draft, which will be sneaking up on you before you know it.
There are many ways to go about drafting a successful Fantasy Football team, but no matter what your strategy is, it's essential to go into your draft with a gameplan. Do your research ahead of time so that when you are on the clock to make your next pick you'll be able to make a selection with confidence. There's nothing that can ruin a draft more than uncertainty as the seconds tick away on the clock, which can lead to a panic move, resulting in a poor draft choice. This is particularly true early on in the draft. While you can take some risks later on, you can't afford to botch an early round pick in a competitive league.
With that in mind, here are the rules I outline for myself heading into a draft.
1. Know your League Settings - there are a variety of different styles and scoring options that can be used in Fantasy Football, so it's essential to know what they are ahead of time. For example, if your league is a PPR (points per reception) league then you have to know that receivers become more valuable. Running backs that pile up receptions also get a big bump in value (Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy).
Also check to see how many points each category is worth. Do QBs get credit for the same number of points for a TD as a RB or WR gets? If so, then QBs become much more valuable since they score more TDs than any other position. The top 20 QBs last season all scored more TDs than the best RB or WR. Tom Brady, who led the way with 36 passing TDs, had more than twice as many TDs as any RB or WR. Because of this disparity, most leagues will make passing TDs worth less (typically 4 points) than a rushing or receiving TD (typically 6 points) to help even out QB value in relation to other positions, but that won't always be the case.
2. What kind of draft is it? - the two most common options are snake drafts and auction drafts. In a snake draft, each manager in the league is assigned a draft spot. So in a 10 team league, the person with the top pick will select the first player, and this trend will continue down the line until all 10 teams have picked. Then the orders reverses in the next round, so the manager that picks last in the previous round goes first in the next round.
Personally, I prefer auction leagues, which are a much better way of determining skill and strategy. Rather than being confined by a certain spot in the draft order, in an auction, managers take turns nominating a player that everyone in the league is then allowed to bid on. The player is then awarded to the highest bidder. Teams are bound to a salary cap and must fill every spot on their roster, including bench spots. If there is a player you really want, you can have him - you just have to pay for him. If you overspend early then you may find yourself without much money left to bid with near the end of the draft, so a big chunk of your roster may be filled out with cheaper players. On the other hand, if you are too conservative then you won't end up with enough elite players and will end up overspending on lesser talent. The last thing you want to do is end up leaving money on the table. You have a cap limit, but make sure you spend it all.
There are different strategies that you can use, depending on which type of draft you are involved in. I advise that you practice ahead of time by doing mock drafts (which can be found on many of the popular fantasy sports sites, such as ESPN or Yahoo). Doing a mock draft allows you to test different strategies to see what works and helps you prepare for your real draft.
3. Who's #1? - there are many different opinions on this subject, but the majority of people will tell you that the top pick, or the most expensive player in an auction, should be a RB. In each of the past two years, the highest scoring player has been a RB, but if you look at the top 10 players in each of those seasons you'll notice that QBs overwhelmingly dominate the top of the leader boards. Last year, 8 of the top 10 players in standard leagues were QBs. So why not draft a QB in the first round then? The answer is simple - position scarcity. In most leagues, you only need 1 QB to start each week, while you can typically start 2 or even 3 RBs. In a 10 team league, most managers in the league will manage to draft an elite QB, but a stud RB is harder to come by. The drop off from the elite RBs to what you'll be able to find later on is more drastic than it is for QBs.
Last year's top player was Arian Foster. Before that it was Chris Johnson. Both of them will be featured prominently in the discussion for the top pick in most drafts and will likely be gone within the first few picks. Personally, I'd place Adrian Peterson first on the list. While he's never had a season where he's finished as the top player in fantasy, he's been in the top 3 amongst RBs in every season if his career. That kind of consistency makes him the safest pick, which is what you want with the top pick, where choosing a bust could doom your entire draft. Not that I'm expecting Foster or Johnson to be a bust, but they come with more risk. Foster was the breakout star of last season, jumping from the practice squad to the Pro-Bowl. It remains to be seen how he will follow up on that impressive campaign, especially with teams game planning more to stop him. Johnson was a beast in 2009 when he rushed for over 2,000 yards, but he dropped off rather dramatically last year, with only 1,364 yards and finished 6th amongst RBs in fantasy points. Still a very good season, but hardly makes him a lock for the top pick. You really can't go wrong with any of them, but I prefer AP.
4. The Vick Factor - last year an early season injury to Kevin Kolb opened the door for Michael Vick to become a starter in the league for the first time since being released from prison. He would go on to blow away everyone's expectations, turning in the best performance of his career and finishing as the top QB in fantasy, despite playing in only 12 games. His improved accuracy throwing the football, combined with his unique ability to rush for yardage with his legs (his 676 rushing yards nearly doubled the next best QB in that category) made him one of the best assets in the game.
Coming off this outstanding season, and with all the abilities he posses, in addition to the weapons surrounding him in the Eagles' offense, many people are picking Vick as the top QB in drafts this year. Some even argue he could go first overall. While Vick certainly has the ability to be the top scorer in fantasy this season, he also comes with more risk than most QBs. His reckless running style makes him susceptible to injury, as shown by the fact that he missed 3 games last season after being hit during a head-first dive toward the end zone. The feet first slide that most QBs use to prevent contact is not in Vick's arsenal of moves.
It's also a concern that Vicks' 62.6 completion percentage is far better than his previous career high from his days in Atlanta. Not many QBs can say they've shown that much improvement after being out of the league for two years. Perhaps his improvement can be partially attributed to the receivers around him, which is a group that is deeper and more talented than what he had in Atlanta. However, we can't necessarily expect a repeat of this career high performance either.
Vick is a high risk/high reward pick. On a per game basis he will still likely deliver an elite caliber performance, but it's difficult to predict him playing all 16 games or improving on last year's success. It will likely cost a lot to get him, and I'd feel better investing in someone like Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady instead.
5. Use Position Tiers - breaking players up into Tiers can help you determine which direction to go in for your next pick. If two players are in the same Tier then it means they have similar value, so while you may not necessarily get the top guy you are looking for, you'd be satisfied with anyone in that group.
Let's say it's your turn to pick and your torn between taking a QB or a RB. Most of the top RBs are already gone, but you have the chance to take someone from the end of the 2nd Tier at that position. You look at the remaining list of QBs and realize only Vick and Rodgers are off the board already, leaving 4 other elite options that you'd be happy to own. In this case, you should take the RB, since the drop off after a Tier 2 RB is bigger than the difference between QBs like Brees and Rivers. There isn't always a way to ensure one of those other elite QBs will still be there when you pick again, so it's important to look ahead to how many picks are between this and your next one, as well as if the teams in between still need a QB.
Here is an example of how to break down players into Tiers.
QB
Tier 1: Rodgers, Vick, Brady, Brees, Rivers, Payton Manning
Tier 2: Romo, Schuab, Rothlisberger, Freeman
Tier 3: Ryan, Bradford, Flacco, Eli Manning, Kolb
*Tier 3 guys are likely only a backup in a 10 team league. Anyone lower than this tier shouldn’t be drafted, since if you get a Tier 1 guy you don’t really need a backup.
RB
Tier 1: Peterson, Foster, Johnson, Charles
Tier 2: Rice, Jones-Drew, McCoy, Gore, Turner, Mendenhall
Tier 3: McFadden, Hillis, Jackson, Forte, Blount, Bradshaw, Williams, Greene, Moreno, Mathews
WR
Tier 1: Andre Johnson, Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, White, Jennings
Tier 2: Nicks, Wallace, DeSean Jackson, Vincent Jackson, Austin, Wayne, Bowe, Dez Bryant
Tier 3: Marshall, Mike Williams, Colston, Welker, Lloyd, Maclin, Boldin
Tier 4: Stevie Johnson, Britt, Holmes, Rice, Steve Smith (Car)
6. Know the people in your league - this isn't always possible if you play in a public league with people you've never met, but through the message boards or emails you can still get a sense of what players they value. If you know their favorite team then that person may be more likely to reach for players from that team. The same goes for if you know they like a particular player. Some owners lean towards players they've had in previous seasons, especially if they were successful that year. Knowing this during your draft will help you potentially predict their draft choices, which will help you determine what players may fall to you to prepare you for your next pick.
7. Never draft a kicker before the last round! - Just don't do it. Ever. End of story. Ok, want proof? There's no reason to use anything but your final pick on a kicker, because there is no other position in the game that is more of a crap shoot. You can't predict who the top kickers in the league will be this year, it's impossible. Sure, there are some kickers that have more range and some that are more accurate than others. But scoring points from your kicker in Fantasy Football is more about opportunity than talent.
Last year's top kicker, Sebastian Janikowski, wasn't even in the top 10 the previous year. Nate Kaeding was the top kicker in 2009, and wasn't anywhere near the top last year. In fact, only 2 kickers in the league ranked in the top 10 in fantasy scoring in each of the past two seasons, and I wouldn't necessarily bet that either of them will do so again this year.
Also, keep in mind that there were only 34 points that separated last year's top kicker from the 10th best kicker. That averages out to barely over 2 points per week. To put that in some perspective, the 10th best QB last season (Eli Maning) finished nearly 80 points behind Vick. There's just not enough of a difference between the league's top kicker and a scrub you can find on waivers to warrant a higher draft pick, even if you could predict who would be the best.
8. You can wait on defense too - You don't necessarily have to wait until the second to last round (right before taking a kicker, of course) to draft a Defense, but there's no reason to take one early. This is in part because DEF is also a difficult position to predict, since being an elite defense on the gridiron does not necessarily translate to being a high scoring fantasy defense. For example, last year's top scoring DEF was the Patriots, who finished as a fairly mediocre defense by most statistical measures used to evaluate NFL teams.
Ideally you'd like to be able to draft one of the top 5 elite defenses that are the most likely to finish near the top of the rankings: Packers, Eagles, Steelers, Jets, or Bears. Those are the safest picks, but there are a handful of others that would suffice as well, plus there's always teams like the Patriots last year that come out of nowhere to produce big fantasy numbers despite not being thought of as an elite defensive team.
While you would prefer not to be at the end of the run when it comes to picking a defense, you don't want to be the one to pick one several rounds ahead of everyone else either. It's typically best to wait until you at least have all your starting spots filled (besides kicker) before selecting a DEF. While filling out your bench, if you find there is nobody at the top of your draft board that you are thrilled about, or if several guys from the same Tier are all still available, then it's ok to start thinking about taking a DEF.
9. Don't overrate sleepers - identifying sleeper picks late in the draft is an essential part of a successful draft. This require research, strategy, and a little luck. A "sleeper" is a term used to describe a player on the cusp of a breakout season. They may not be well known to the casual fan, but savvy fantasy owners know them, as hype around their potential builds all off-season long. The danger in this is that sometimes a player can get too much hype, inflating their value. What makes a sleeper pick so valuable is the return on investment, or ROI, that you get from the pick. For example, many of the teams that won their leagues last year had Arian Foster in their lineup. This isn't just because Foster was the highest scoring player in the game, but also because he wasn't drafted that high. Anyone can draft Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson and be satisfied with their top 10 production, but taking a player in the 10th round that gives you that same kind of elite production is a huge bonus because that draft pick gave you a much better ROI than the first round pick used on AP or CJ2K.
However, be cautious of letting the hype drive up someone's draft price. There is a reason that these players are considered sleepers. It's because they have yet to break out, which means there's still the chance that they won't have the big breakout season many anticipate from them. In fact, the majority of players on most of the pre-season sleeper lists you'll see end up disappointing. If you draft these players higher than you should then it can hurt your draft, and even if they do break out, if you took them much higher than you could have then the ROI isn't as great. It's best to target several sleeper options late in the draft, knowing most will probably fail, but hoping for that diamond in the rough. Just don't overpay to get them.
10. You don't have to like the guys you draft - meaning that you should be happy with the stats they are going to pile up for you, even if you don't happen to like the player as a person. You could be an active member of PETA, but if Michael Vick is going to help you win your league then you can't pass on him because of his past off field issues. Maybe you're a huge Giants fan, but that doesn't mean you take Eli Manning over his brother Peyton. Sure, it's fun to be able to draft our favorite players and guys from the teams we root for, but if you're serious about winning your league then sometimes you have to take a guy you despise if he happens to be the best available option.
Honestly, there is no fool proof plan to having a perfect draft. If there was, then we'd all be winners. In most leagues I've played in, that's just never the case. There can only be one winner at the end of the season, and the journey towards achieving that goal starts with having a successful draft. Following these rules won't guarantee you a fantasy title, but it will get you off to a good start.
No comments:
Post a Comment