The Jeter Dilemma

Legend.  Icon.  Future Hall-of Famer.  Greedy?

Those terms can be used to describe Derek Jeter, but the New York Yankees have to hope that the last of those terms isn't how he'll be remembered in New York. 

The Yankees have their hands full this off-season, and it's not just because of their intent to lead the bidding war for Cliff Lee.  Getting him to sign his name on the dotted line isn't the problem.

The problem for the Yankees, surprisingly, is coming from their Captain. 

For the first time in a decade, Jeter is eligible for free agency.  While many overlooked the issue under the assumption that the Yankees would retain their star Shortstop, it apparently has become easier said than done.  The issue?  Money.  Of course.

The Yankees are notorious for throwing money around, to the point that you have to wonder if the Steinbrenners have a giant pool full of money that they swim in, like Scrooge McDuck.  They overpay free agents to take other bidders out of contention and their 2010 payroll was over $206 million, over $45 million more than the next highest team's payroll.  Alex Rodriguez on his own makes almost as much money as the entire Pittsburgh Pirates roster!  Suffice it to say, money is not an issue for the Yankees.

That being said, does a nearly limitless spending limit mean that they are obligated to make financial mistakes?  It's one thing to throw bundles of money at the best free agents available, but do they have to overpay their own players to stay as well?

The Yankees have put a very generous offer of 3 years for $45 million on the table.  While it is a drop from the $22 million he made last year, there aren't too many 36 year olds that would scoff at $15 million per year.  Unless your  name happens to be Derek Jeter.

Jeter is asking for an absurd 6 year deal worth $150 million.  He may even consider being talked down to a 4-5 year deal as long as the annual payment is around $20 per season.  Gee, how kind of him.

The last time Jeter was eligible to become a free agent he signed a massive 10 year $189 million deal with the Yankees.  While I wouldn't call that a reasonable deal, you can see the logic behind it.  At the time, Jeter was considered to be the 2nd best SS in the game, behind Alex Rodriguez, who had just signed a 10 year $252 Million deal with Texas.  That was 10 years ago.  Flash forward to present day and Jeter is no longer the 2nd best SS in the game.  Probably not even top 5. 

For a comparison, Hanley Rameriz is largely considered the best SS in the game, and he only made $7 million last year.  The Colorado Rockies are on the verge of a contract extension with Troy Tulowitzki that will average a similar annual salary to what the Yankees are offering Jeter.  Both of these elite Shortstops are much younger and likely to outproduce Jeter in each of the next few years, yet Jeter wants to be paid much more than them.  In what world does that make sense?!

The argument that Jeter and his agent are trying to make it that the Yankees are expected to overpay because he's Derek Jeter!  He's the team Captain, their leader, the heart and soul of the team.  He's won 5 World Series Championships, batting titles and Gold Gloves.  He expects to be paid based on past performance, not on what he brings to the table now and in the future.

Sorry Derek, that's not how it works, and the Yankees brass know it.  GM Brian Cashman is too smart for it.  That past performance was great, but it's also the reason he was paid $189 million over the past 10 years for his last contract!  What makes him think that he should get paid at the same rate when his production is not the same?  Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle and Joe DiMaggio all saw their salaries drop dramatically near the end of their careers.  Granted that was before the era of free agency when players had no leverage, but there is still a historical precedence for the Yankees not wanting to overpay a player no matter what kind of a legacy he has with the team.

Make no mistake, his production is in decline.  Last year Jeter batted a career low .270 (not counting his '95 season where he only played 15 games) and his .370 Slugging % is by far the lowest of his career.  He still scored runs and knocked in a respectable amount of runs for a lead off hitter, but that's more a function of the stacked Yankees lineup than of his own production.

What about his defense?  After all, he did win a Gold Glove award in 2010.  Please, the Gold Glove is the biggest joke of any award in baseball.  It has nothing to do with recognizing the best defensive player.  The award is annually given away to the most popular player at the position.  Often times a player's offensive production has more to do with who gets the award because the player is more well known.  Doesn't make much sense for an award that is supposed to be for the best defensive player at the position.  Jeter is actually one of the worst defensive Shortstops in the league.  He's always been overrated, hardly ever having a year where he was even above average.  Yet he's won the award five times.

Don't believe he's not an elite defender?  In 2010 his UZR rating was -4.7 (Ultimate Zone Rating measures the amount of batted balls a defender gets to that are hit into his area of the field compared to the average player).  Jeter gets a lot of credit because people remember the spectacular off balance throws they see on the highlights.  While those are great plays, they don't give an accurate picture of Jeter's defensive ability on a consistent basis.  Going by the old school way of looking at stats, Jeter looks good because he doesn't commit a lot of errors and has a high fielding percentage.  The voters that give him the award based on that are ignorant of the advanced data that is now available and clearly haven't seen him play much.  The reason Jeter doesn't commit many errors is because he doesn't get to nearly as many balls in play as other players.  You can't commit an error on a ball that you don't even get to.  Range has never been one of Jeter's strongest attributes, but as he gets older it is rapidly declining.

It's not uncommon for older players to lose range, which is especially troublesome for Shortstops.  Historically we have seen many Shortstops change positions as they get older to play at a spot where their declining range is less of a liability.  Cal Ripkin Jr. did it.  Alex Rodriguez is doing it.  Eventually Jeter will need to do it as well, whether he wants to or not.  This also needs to be factored in when trying to determine accurate value for Jeter's next contract, as a weak hitting corner infielder isn't worth as much as he would be as a Shortstop.  It's unlikely that any team that goes after Jeter, including the Yankees, will want to consider him as a Shortstop for the entire length of the contract.

According to FanGraphs.com, Jeter had a WAR (wins above replacement player) value of 2.5 last year.  Meaning if they took a replacement level player off the scrap heap and replaced Jeter with him then the 2010 Yankees would only have lost a couple of games in the standings.  In other words, Jeter does make them better, but they still would have made the playoffs as the Wild Card team without him. 

You can't blame Brian Cashman for the stance he's taking.  He put his offer on the table and essentially told Jeter that if he doesn't like it then he can go test his value on the open market.  He's confident that no other team will offer Jeter anywhere close to the amount they are offering, which means the contract they have on the table is paying for past performance.  They are offering to pay a lot more than the market value already, but Jeter's ego won't allow him to see what everyone else thinks is obvious.  He's not worth nearly as much as he thinks he is.  This will soon become painfully clear when other offers either fail to come close to the Yankees offer or fail to come in at all.

Just out of curiosity, let's look at other team's that may show some interest in Jeter to see if it would be worth their while to get in on the bidding.

Boston: They could at least hint at doing it just to stick it to the Yankees and drive up the price, but it's unlikely they would be serious about signing him.  They aren't desperate for a Shortstop and one of their top prospects, Jose Inglesias, is on the way. 

Baltimore: They have been having trouble filling empty seats for their games, so getting a high profile player like Jeter would help sell some more tickets.  Unfortunately the move wouldn't translate to many more wins.  Would Jeter even consider going to a team with no immediate chance at the playoffs?

LA Angels: They have some money to spend and could put him at SS or 3B, but they have bigger priorities in free agency, such as Beltre or Crawford.  They'd have to strike out on all of their top choices before considering Jeter.  They also aren't the type of team to spend money just because they have it.  If they can't get one of the big bats then they will likely wait until next year.

NY Mets: At least they know he can handle the New York market, and they'd love the chance to drive a knife in the back of their cross town rivals.  But unless they end up trading Jose Reyes then they are already set at SS and 3B.  Even if trading Reyes is an option then overpaying an aging veteran to replace him would not be an option.

LA Dodgers: Joe Torre is gone, but Jeter does have a good relationship with new skipper Don Mattingly.  But with the owners dealing with their divorce issues it doesn't seem likely that they can afford to hand out a bad contract.

San Francisco: The Giants should be able to use their recent World Series victory to draw enough fans to fill their ballpark, they don't need to overpay a big name to sell tickets.  They already have too much money tied to Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand to afford clogging their payroll with another overpaid veteran.

That's pretty much it for the teams that could afford to offer a big contract to Jeter.  Other teams are either small market teams that can't afford that kind of risk or teams that don't have a big need for a SS or 3B (or whatever other position they could find to stick Jeter in).

Like it or not, the Yankees are the best fit for Jeter.  Always have been.  No other team will offer him close to the money that he wants and no other team will be as reluctant to move him to another position (in part because the Yankees really don't have anywhere else to put him now, so they have to let him play SS at least a little longer due to a lack of options).  Jeter really has no leverage in this situation because there are no other teams that are eager to raise the price.  Any other team would laugh at him and hang up the phone if he demanded the kind of contract he wants from them, or even if he asked for the same amount the Yankees have already offered.  He's essentially trying to get the Yankees to bid against themselves and they aren't falling for it.

Derek Jeter needs to take a long look in the mirror and realize the harsh reality that he's not the super star he thinks he is anymore.  He's an aging veteran that is on the decline.  He will never be as beloved or valued in any other city as he is in New York.  No other team will treat him as well or pay him as much.  He may not want to admit it, but he needs the Yankees more than the Yankees need him.  Once he finally realizes that then he and the team will finally be able to agree upon a deal to keep in in New York where he belongs.

NFL Week 12 Review

Week 12 started out on Thanksgiving day with a trio of games to fill the afternoon.  After stuffing your face with a big turkey dinner, there's nothing better than making yourself comfortable on the couch for a full day of watching football.

There are several teams that have a lot to be thankful for this season, including the Patriots, Jets, Falcons and Eagles.  There are also some teams that will be thankful when this disappointing season finally comes to an end, such as the Vikings, Cowboys and Bengals.  Then there's the teams that should just be thankful that they are still allowed to be in the league, such as the entire NFC West division.

Here are some things that I'm thankful to have seen this week:

• The Patriots rallied from a sluggish start to blow out the Lions to open the Thanksgiving Day festivities.  Detroit actually led at halftime, but Brady & Co. came out on fire in the second half.
• Brady had an impressive 341 passing yards, 4 TDs and a perfect 158.3 QB Rating (why that odd number is the highest possible rating is a mystery to me).
• Rookie DT Ndamukong Suh is a beast, showing he is already on his way to becoming one of the top players at his position.  He recorded an early sack and had a couple of tackles that went for a loss.
• While he won't beat out Suh for Defensive Rookie of the Year honors, Patriots CB Devin McCourty has been impressive as well.  He had two Interceptions in this game, giving him 5 for the season.  He certainly still has times where he struggles in coverage, which is expected for young players, but he seems to keep getting better every week and is looking like a player that could reach an elite level in a couple of years.
• Wes Welker struggled initially after the Randy Moss trade, as defenses were able to focus more on stopping him and left him with less room to operate, but he's finally starting to break out again.  He had a team high 8 receptions for 90 yards and 2 TDs. 
• Deion Branch came up big as well with 113 yards and 2 TDs of his own.  One of his TDs came on a 79 yard bomb where he made several nice juke moves to avoid the helpless defender.  Given how much he had to slow down to make those moves, it's amazing that no other Lions defender was able to catch up to them to help out.
• The Saints kept their NFC South title hopes alive with a comeback victory in the final minutes in Dallas.  Drew Brees led a masterful 89 yard drive, connecting on two deep passes, followed by a 12 yard slant to Lance Moore for the game winning TD with under 2 minutes to go.
• Dallas let victory slip through their fingers, or rather through the fingers of Roy Williams.  They could have had the game wrapped up after Jon Kitna connected with Williams on a 47 yard pass that put them deep in Saints territory.  Even if they weren't able to run out the remaining three minutes off the clock, they could have gone up by two scores or at least kicked a FG to go up by 7.  Malcolm Jenkins knew that a simple tackle may not have been enough to avoid a loss, so after getting burned by Williams on the play he knew he had to make up for it.  Did he ever!  He somehow manage to knock the ball loose from behind and recover the fumble, which gave Brees and the offense one last chance to win.  Which of course they did, because it's Drew Brees.
• The Miles Austin end around for a 60 yard TD was a thing of beauty.  The fact that this one long run made him the Cowboys' leading rusher for the game is a bit ugly.
• Speaking of ugly, the Jets continue to win games despite poor play from their offense.  Mark Sanchez only had 166 passing yards, and it wasn't just because the Jets game planned to run all day.  Neither LT or Shonne Green reached 20 carries for the game and they combined for less than 120 yards.
• This game was won thanks to Brad Smith, who scored TDs on a 53 yard run and an 89 yard kick return, which he managed to outrun defenders despite losing a shoe on the play.
• Terrell Owens is having a great season, but he became another star WR to be stranded on Revis Island.  He had only 3 catches for 17 yards.  His partner in crime, OchoCinco, didn't help much either, with only 4 catches for 41 yards.
• The downward spiral continues for the Titans as they were shut out by the Texans.  The highlight of their day was that Randy Moss had his best day since joining the team (3 catches, 23 yards).  When that's the best you can say about them then you know it was a disaster.
• Chris Johnson was even more disappointing (7 carries, 5 yards).  The ineptitude of this offense has apparently sucked him down with the rest of the team.
• For all his faults and issues, Vince Young at least took relatively good care of the football and put up respectable numbers, even when he wasn't asked to throw much, as shown by the fact that he's 5th in the league in QB rating.  He's done for the year and his replacement is apparently the opposite of Vince - 3 interceptions and a QB rating of only 26.7.
• Arian Foster dominated the game once again (143 rushing, 75 receiving).
• Andre Johnson's day didn't end nearly as well as it started, as both he and Titan's CB Cortland Finnegan were ejected in the 4th quarter for fighting.  The two had been jawing back and forth all day, and AJ80 is on record saying before the game that he's sick of hearing Finnegan run his mouth.  The tension finally erupted, with Finnegan getting his helmet torn off before being thrown to the ground.  Both players managed to land a couple of punches and it remains to be seen if their actions could lead to further fines or suspensions.
• The Falcons pulled out a last second victory to remain the NFC's best team.  Roddy White was relatively contained by the Packers defense, but Michael Turner made up for it with a 110 yard 1 TD performance.
• Matt Ryan has only been beaten once at home in his 3 year career.  If Atlanta can remain the top seed and get home field advantage through the playoffs then you have to like their chances of reaching the Super Bowl.
• Aaron Rodgers' late game heroics to tie the game with under a minute to go were not enough after all since their defense could not stop the Falcons from driving into FG range at the end of the game.
• The winning streak is over for Buffalo, as they lost their 3rd OT game of the season.  Give them a lot of credit for hanging with the heavily favored Steelers, but good teams win these kind of games.
• Steve Johnson was the hero in last week's comeback victory against the Bengals, but he was the goat in this one.  A late 4th quarter red zone opportunity failed when a pass deflected off his hands and was picked off by Troy Polomalu.  Then in Overtime he dropped the would-be game winning TD pass when he had the defense burned and could not hang on to an easy catch.  Those were just 2 of his 5 drops in the game.
• In a bizarre post-game rant on Twitter, Johnson blamed God for the dropped passes.  Sure, why not?  Plenty of athletes praise God when they win, so why shouldn't He get the blame when they lose?  Or maybe... Steve just had a bad game.  Get over it!  He says the team will get over it, but he never will.
• Rashard Mendenhall's 151 rushing yards would be more impressive it it didn't take him 36 carries and an OT period to do it.
• Payton Hillis was an unstoppable force with 194 total yards and 3 TDs.  We knew the Carolina defense was bad, but wow.  This guy is good.
• Hillis is a prime example this week of the downfalls of being in multiple fantasy football leagues.  His monster game is the reason I won my match-up in one league, but also the reason I lost my match-up in another league. 
• The Panthers haven't gotten much out of their QBs this year, but they did get some help from a former QB.  Jake Delhomme threw 2 picks, one of which was returned for a TD.
• The Giants got back into the NFC East race with a much needed win.
• Fumble problems may be leading to a decrease in carries for Ahmand Bradshaw.  He had only 9 carries, compared to 14 for Brandon Jacobs.
• David Garrard always seems to struggle on the road.  Good thing they have Maurice Jones-Drew to carry the load, or else they may never have even had a lead that they could blow.
• The Vikings got a win in the debut for their new head coach Leslie Frazier.  After seeing the Cowboys and now the Vikings win the week after firing their coach, maybe other teams should consider making some changes.
• Adrian Peterson left the game early with an ankle injury.  It doesn't sound serious, so hopefully he won't miss additional time.  He had an MRI on Monday and they are awaiting results.
• Before the injury, Peterson eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark for the season.  It's the 4th straight year that he's topped that mark.  Only 2 other active RBs (Stephan Jackson, Thomas Jones) have more consecutive 1K yard seasons.
• Chad Henne returned to lead the Dolphins passed the Raiders.  He was helped by his running game.  The combination of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams looked lifeless the past few weeks, but finally broke out, combining for 180 yards.  A 45 yard TD run by Williams helped clinch the game.
• Oakland was once 2nd in the league in rushing, but continues to drop (down to 5th) after another unproductive week.  Darren McFadden and Michael Bush combined for only 3 yards!
• Dwayne Bowe continues his streak as an unstoppable receiver (13 catches, 170 yards, 3 TDs), despite that he has Matt Cassell throwing to him and that there are very little other receiving options around him.  The game plan to stop Bowe used to be just to wait for him to drop the ball.  Maybe defenses need to adjust that plan.
• See what happens when you let Jamaal Charles carry the ball 20+ times?  He goes off for 173 yards and a TD.  Keep giving him the ball.
• Given the lead they had for most of the game, they still managed to fit in another 20 carries for Thomas Jones.  Unfortunately, half of those carries went for 2 yards or less.  Other than goal line carries it's tough to figure why he even gets the ball until the 4th quarter, when they can use him to help eat up the clock if they have the lead. 
•  Seattle's top receiver Mike Williams missed this game with a foot injury, but Ben Obomanu filled in admirably with 5 catches for 159 yards and a TD.  If you haven't heard of him, don't worry.  I'm not sure Matt Hasselbeck had heard of him before this week either, as he only had 15 catches all season entering this game.
• Michael Vick finally threw his first Interception of the year, and it was a costly one given that they lost by only 5 points.  He still had another great game, passing for over 300 yards for only the 2nd time all season (Week 10, in which he also had 333 yards).
• His day would have been even better, not just for his stats, but for the team's chances to win as well, if DeSean Jackson hadn't dropped a sure TD pass.  He seemed to be bracing himself for impact and tried to drop to the ground to avoid getting hit in the head rather than focusing on holding on to the ball.  Can't really blame him considering he missed time this season due to a concussion from a vicious helmet to helmet hit, but that was a ball he needed to hang on to.
• Jay Cutler had a big game, with 4 TDs and no turnovers.  Who would have thought he would have had less turnovers and a better QB rating than Vick in this game?
• It probably helped that the Eagles were without their top two CBs for the game.  Asante Samuel was out this week and Ellis Hobbs is out for the season.  They just didn't have enough depth at the position to keep up with the speedy Bears receivers.
• Chicago is now on a 4 game winning streak that has put them a game ahead of the Packers for first place in the NFC North.
• Sam Bradford had the first 300 yard game of his career, as well as the first 3 TD game and first road victory.  Not too shabby for the rookie QB.  Granted it came against a miserable Broncos team, but Bradford's receiving options aren't exactly a group of Pro-Bowl caliber players.
• Kyle Orton did some damage of his own (347 yards, 3 TDs), most of which came in the 4th quarter during a furious comeback attempt.  His last chance drive was uneventful, including a sack followed by three straight incompletions which pretty much ended the game.  But hey, at least he continues to look good in the box scores.
• On the bright side, Orton took over the league lead for passing yards (3370).  I doubt you'll hear his name mentioned much in the MVP debate though.  Not just because his team is awful, but because you just can't give an MVP award to this guy.
• The Ravens managed to hold off the Bucs with some strong defensive play despite not forcing a turnover or recording a sack the entire game.  Pretty impressive to be able to hold a team to only 10 points (7 of which came at the end of the game) without the help of turnovers or sacks.
• Ray Rice had a useful day, with 132 total yards.  Not that the team needed it, but his day would have been even better if a long receiving TD hadn't been called back due to a penalty.  His Fantasy owners are sadly nodding their heads.
• Payton Manning continues to struggle against the Chargers.  For whatever reason, San Diego is the team that has his number.  His 4 Interceptions took away any chance the Colts had of winning.  His struggles can be partially blamed on the pressure the Chargers were able to get on him.  The TV announcers kept doing a freeze frame on his face, showing his goofy squinting expression as he released the ball, anticipating contact.  He was only sacked once, but was hit five times, which is a lot for him.
• Two of Manning's picks were returned for TDs, so he had just as many TD passes to the Chargers as he did for his own team!
• In fairness to Manning, one of those picks that was returned was due to a blatant pass interference non-call.  Eric Weddle wrapped his hands around the waist of Reggie Wayne and pulled him down, giving himself the leverage he needed to get in position to pick off the pass.  On replay it was obvious, so I'm not sure how ref's missed that one.  Even if you assumed the Colts would have scored on that drive (certainly not a given) and took away the points going the other way, San Diego still would have won.  So it's not that big a deal, other than to say that Manning's day is slightly less horrible when you factor that in.
• Meanwhile, Philip Rivers wasn't asked to do much, which is why he managed only 185 yards and zero TDs.  He probably won't complain about the help he got from his defense and running game, but the Chargers are going to need to be behind more often if Rivers is going to have any chance at Marino's record, which he is now way off pace for.
• Antonio Gates returned this week, catching 4 balls for 46 yards, but he didn't look like he was running very well.  He's clearly still in pain and his tolerance for the pain will determine how much he can be used down the stretch.
• Vincent Jackson made his long awaited 2010 debut after holding out thus far due to a contract dispute.  He left the game with a calf injury in the first quarter without recording a catch.
• Jackson didn't get the contract he wanted and only returned because the players association strongly suggested he do so in order to ensure he received credit for the season so that he could become a free agent.  I don't want to doubt the severity of an injury, but is it that far fetched that Jackson could milk this calf injury the rest of the year so that he's still "holding out" but getting credit for the season at the same time?
•  The 49ers won a Pyrrhic victory against Arizona.  While they needed the win to stay close in the NFC West race, they may also have doomed their chances by losing Frank Gore to a broken hip that could put him out for the rest of the season.
• The silver lining to the Gore injury is that in his place they were treated to a vintage performance from Brian Westbrook.  The former Pro-Bowler, who's career seemed over after concussion issues ended his long tenure in Philadelphia, racked up 136 yards and a TD.  Oddly enough, Westbrook was not targeted at all in the passing game.  Did these guys not watch him play in Philly?  He's just as dangerous as a receiver than as a rusher, and it's not like passing to their RBs isn't part of their game plan because Gore catches more passes than most RBs in the league.
• How pathetic is the Arizona offense?  Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower combined for 10 carries for 13 yards.  Derek Anderson failed to complete even half of his pass attempts (16/35) for under 200 yards.  It's no surprise they were kept out of the endzone.
• They should have had one TD, but Larry Fitzgerald couldn't keep control of the ball as he went to the ground.  Maybe the ineptitude of the rest of the offense is contagious.
• Apparently the NFL has some dumb rule that says they have to let an NFC West team make the playoffs, despite the fact that no team in the division has a winning record or a positive point differential.  This means that a team like the Giants or Packers may end up missing the playoffs so that an unworthy team can get a free pass based on the fact that they are in a terrible division.
• The Cincinnati Bengals have the league's longest losing streak, now at 8 games.
• The Tennessee Titans are in last in the NFC South, despite having the division's best point differential (+39).  Jacksonville leads the division despite having the worst point differential (-54).
• Next week's Monday Night match-up between the Patriots and Jets may not only decide the division, but perhaps even the top seed in the AFC.  The Pats need a win to get ahead of the Jets.  A loss would mean that not only are the Jets a game ahead, but they'd also own the head-to-head tie breaker thanks to their win at home back in September.  So the Patriots would need the Jets to lose at least 2 of their final 4 games to surpass them if they don't win this game.  Otherwise they may have to settle for a Wild Card and a playoff path that takes them on the road.

NFL Week 11 Review

Bye weeks are over now, so we got to see a full slate of games this week for the first time since Week 3.  The more football the better as far as I'm concerned, although I may suffer from some serious finger cramping by the end of this due to writing about more games. 

Here are some things I noticed this week.

• The Bears opened the week on Thursday by dominating the Dolphins.  Or about as "dominant" as you can be when you only score 16 points.  So really it was just their defense that dominated.  And their field goal Kicker.
• Miami's play calling was atrocious.  They were down to their 3rd string QB and lost Brandon Marshall to an injury during the game, yet they never even attempted to establish a running game.  Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams had three carries each.  QB Tyler Thigpen had the same number of rushes as both his RBs combined!  What happened to the days when their RB duo ran the Wild Cat offense to make up for their lack of a passing game?  Now they lack both a passing and running game.
• The Bills have won 2 in a row!  Their improbable playoff run continues!  Ok, maybe not, but fans in Buffalo don't have much else to be excited about, especially now that the weather is becoming unbearably cold that far north.
• Steve Johnson (8 catches, 137 yards, 3 TDs) may be the best WR in the league that most people have never heard of.  Maybe it's because he plays for a miserable Buffalo team or maybe it's because he has such a commonly dull name.  Nonetheless, there are still only two receivers in the league with more TDs than Johnson (9) this season.
• This was truly a game of two halves, as the Bengals dominated the first half, leading 31-14 at the break, but then they couldn't score at all in the second half, blowing a lead by giving up 5 TDs in the second half!  When it looks like you are going to win in a blowout by halftime but then end up getting blown out by the end of the game then I think it's safe to say you have a problem finishing games.  It looks like T.Ocho and friends didn't bother to show up for the 2nd half.
• Cinncinnati has now fallen behind Buffalo to become the worst team in the AFC.  Weren't they supposed to be a playoff contender?
• There's only three things you can count on in life: Death, Taxes and the Lions will lose on the road.  They at least usually make things interesting, but Jon Kitna's 29 yard bootleg run for a TD put this one far out of reach near the end of the 4th quarter.
• Speaking of Kitna, which stat is more amazing: 4 total TDs (3 passing, 1 rushing) or ZERO turnovers?  If it were an elite QB we were talking about I'd say that's just another typical week, but for Kitna to not turn the ball over is a once in a blue moon kind of event.
• The Redskins beat the Titans on a FG in Overtime.  They had a chance to win it in regulation, but missed on a 47 yard attempt.  Surprisingly, the Redskins allowed Donnovan McNabb to remain in the game for that final drive.  If only they had put in game closing specialist Rex Grossman at the end they may have been able to get a little closer to make it an easier attempt (the FG was short by about 2 yards).  With only 1:37 remaining when that drive started it's amazing that McNabb had the cardiovascular endurance to take them from their own 22 yard line all the way to within reasonable FG range.  Where was Rex?
• Or that's the take I'd have on the situation if I was crazy... like Mike Shanahan was a few weeks ago.  What was different this week?  Did McNabb miraculously get into better shape since then or did Shanahan just not want to be crucified by the media for making that bold mistake decision again.
• Vince Young left the game early with an injury and may not be back... ever.  Not due to the injury, but due to his post game tirade where he reportedly dropped a few unpleasant words before walking out on his coach.  According to his coach, he also threw half his uniform into the stands, which is one of the best hissy fit moments by a player this year. 
• Jeff Fisher mentioned that Young may require season ending surgery.  Even if that's not true, they should just pretend it is and bench VY for the rest of the year.  He has a history of immaturity and this has to be the last straw.  There is a difference between being a competitive player that plays with passion and being a distracting headache.
• In case there was any doubt about there being friction between the player and coach, Young was quoted as yelling "I'm not running out on my teammates, I'm running out on you," as he stormed out of the locker room.
• Who would have bet on there being drama in the Titan's locker room that didn't revolve around Randy Moss after a game where he failed to record a catch?
• Coming off a couple of disappointing weeks, the Chiefs finally got back on track with a much needed win to take back the division lead.  They are still undefeated at home.
• Dwayne Bowe was criticized early in the season for a lack of focus that led to lots of dropped passes.  Lately he's been doing his best to quiet those critics.  After another big game (109 yards, 2 TDs) Bowe now leads the league in receiving TDs (11).
• Beanie Wells returned, claiming his knee is now 100%, but only touched the ball 8 times.  Not enough of a sample size to see how effective he is at this point.  He and Tim Hightower both averaged around 5 yards per carry, but neither was able to get many attempts due to the lopsided score.
• In what could very well be the last chance Brett Favre will ever have to stick it to his old Packers team, it looks like it was Green Bay that got the last laugh.  The Vikings were embarrassed 31-3 and Favre did nothing to help avoid that.  Perhaps this is the wake up call he needed to decide it's finally time to retire.  For good this time.
• Not even the return of Sydney Rice, who had missed the season's previous games due to off-season hip surgery, could turn things around for the Vikings offense.  3 catches for 56 yards isn't terrible for a first game back off a serious injury, but it wasn't a difference maker.  Rice can't look like the breakout star from last year if Favre isn't playing like the Favre of last year.
• The Vikings finally listed to their fans and fired Brad Childress on Monday.  It's too late for them to turn around this season, but the move was long overdue.  Chilly had let that team get out of control and his team hated him.  No really, one anonymous player actually said he hates him.  They clearly quit on him already, and a blow out loss to the rival Packers was rock bottom, opening up the perfect opportunity for them to hand Childress his pink slip.  They may not win many more games with a new coach, but you have to think there at least will be a lot less tension in the locker room, so things are already improving.  You also have to wonder if the new coach will do what Chilly never would - bench Brett Favre.
• The Aaron Rodgers to Greg Jennings combo was unstoppable this week, connecting for 152 yards and 3 TDs.  Jennings is one of the game's best big play receivers, and there were plenty of them in this game.  His 7 catches in the game averaged 21.7 yards per catch.
• After losing on a miracle Hail Mary catch last week, the Texans suffered another late heartbreaking loss this week.  I'm still in shock that they managed to blow this game.  They had the lead with under 2 minutes to go when the Jets comeback attempt was thwarted after a Mark Sanchez Interception that should have sealed the win.  After milking some more time off the clock and making the Jets use up the last of their timeouts, the Texans kicked a FG to go up by 4 point with under 1 minute to go.  Should have been game over, right?  Nope, not if you're facing the league's worst defense!  They gave up a 42 yard bomb to Braylon Edwards when the safety was late coming to help.  In that situation, how do you let a receiver get passed you??  It's one thing if a faster receiver just burns the Corner covering him, but the safety is supposed to back him up.  He tried... just not hard enough.  The Jets scored the winning TD on the next play on a textbook lob to the corner of the endzone to Santonio Holmes.  The Jets string of luck continues with their third straight win that was handed to them by a bonehead play or penalty by their opponent at the end of the game.
• Credit the Jets and Revis for containing Andre Johnson (4 catches, 32 yards), but nobody can stop Arian Foster (143 total yards, 2 TDs).  If Houston didn't keep finding ways to lose close games they'd find themselves in the playoff hunt and Foster would be an MVP candidate.
• The Steelers finally put an end to the Raiders winning streak with a decisive blowout victory.  They entered the game with the league's second best rushing attack, but Bush and McFadden combined for only 47 yards against the Steel Curtain.
• After looking good the past couple weeks in leading Oakland to victories, Jason Campbell appears to have been benched (again) for Bruce Gradkowski.  He wasn't much better, so it's a toss up between which one will start next week.  Do you think they just pick out of a hat before the game?  Or do they use the pre-game coin flip to decide?
• Leave it to the Steelers to win a lopsided blowout but still complain about the refs after.  Granted they set a franchise record for penalty yardage, a jaw dropping 14 penalties for 163 yards (Oakland's offense managed only 182 total yards without the penalties), and some of those calls were a little dubious.  Did it really matter though?  The Steelers are claiming the league is targeting them to send a message about illegal hits because they are the most physical defense in the league.  I doubt that's true, but when James Harrison runs his mouth about how he intends to hurt people on every play then that probably isn't helping.
• Richard Seymour was ejected from the game for smacking Ben Roethisberger across the face.  Seems a bit harsh considering he was only doing what every college girl in the country wishes they could do.  This slap is dedicated to all of you drunk college chicks out there!
• There is no truth to the rumor that Seymour slapped him only after Ben asked him if his daughter is 18 yet.  Or at least I think I made that up, but is it hard to imagine Big Ben acting like a creepier version of Quagmire from Family Guy?
• Carolina lost both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewert, neither of which came close to the 100 yard mark in a game all season.  So of course Mike Goodson starts twice and goes over the century mark both times.  Are teams just not game planning their defense around him they did for D-Will and The Daily Show, or was the offensive line not quite as much at fault for their miserable play?
• Throwing an Interception is never good, but it's even worse when it gets returned for a TD.  Brian St. Pierre did it twice... on back-to-back plays.  He's like the anti-comeback player.
• The Jaguars win wasn't quite as dramatic this week, but they still got the winning TD with just over 1 minute to go.  A thrilling victory by most standards, but they just set the bar too high after last week.
• How are the Jaguars leading the AFC South?  I won't complain about anything that could keep the Colts out of the playoffs, but nobody expected Jacksonville to even be a contender.
• The Falcons continue their quest to prove they are the best team in the NFC.  The title is still up for grabs, but this week they provided another example of why they deserve it.  Matt Ryan may not be the biggest name or put up the flashiest stats, but if they keep winning then he will work his way into the MVP consideration.
• Sam Bradford isn't there yet, but maybe he can win the award for best offensive rookie.  He could be one of Matty Ice's challengers for the league's best QB in 5 years.
• Atlanta better keep it up, because the Saints are hot on their trail.  The defending Super Bowl champs are only 1 game behind and the teams still have another game against each other that could decide the division.
• Drew Brees (382 yards, 106.9 rating) and Matt Hasselbeck (366 yards, 104.9 rating) had fairly similar days.  The difference is that the Saints drives ended with TDs and the Seahawks settled for FGs. 
• Reggie Bush was supposed to return this week, but ended up being inactive again.  Not that they really needed him for this one.
• Tampa Bay stayed in the race for the NFC South by shutting out the 49ers.  Shutting down Frank Gore is no easy challenge, but they did it relatively well.  They have already exceeded expectations (well, except from their coach, who thinks they are the best team in the league), but a tough schedule down the stretch could take them out of contention.
• Mike Williams played, despite being arrested for a DUI earlier in the week, and caught another TD.
• The Colts started to bring back some eerie memories from last year when they came back to beat New England after trailing 31-14 in the 4th quarter.  This time the score was the same to begin the 4th and once again Manning ripped through the Patriots defense for two more TDs to close the game to within 3.  When the Pats failed to move the chains enough to run out the clock it gave Manning a chance for another one of his trademark gut wrenching comebacks.  Only this time the script wasn't the same.  When the Colts got into FG range to potentially tie the game in the closing minutes it seemed hopeless for Pats fans (myself included).  It seemed inevitable at that point that Manning would once again rip our hearts out.  Not this time.  Manning threw his third Interception of the game to seal the victory for the Patriots.
• Just like old times: Manning gets twice as many yards and TDs, but it's Brady who gets the victory.
• The Eagles won a statement game to take over the lead in the NFC East from the Giants.  Michael Vick wasn't quite as impressive as last week, but he did score one rushing TD, thanks in part to a great hold  block by DeSean Jackson in the endzone.
• Vick turned the ball over for the first time this season on a fumble in the 4th quarter.  He still has yet to throw an Interception this season - the only QB in the league with as many starts as Vick that can say that.  He still leads the league in QB Rating.
• Eli Manning had a miserable game with 4 turnovers of his own.  Ahmad Bradshaw was shut down and also lost his league leading 5th fumble of the season. 
• The lone bright spot for Bradshaw actually came as a defensive player.  After Asante Samuel picked off one of his two Interceptions, it was Bradshaw that delivered the hit that knocked the ball loose, causing Samuel to fumble and the Giants to get the ball back.
• The Broncos got off to a good start Monday Night by effortlessly driving down the field on their first drive and scoring on a short run by Knowshon Moreno.  It all went down hill from there, as the Chargers responded with 35 straight points.  It took them a couple of drives to get started, but once they started to click on offense the Chargers couldn't be stopped.
• Philip Rivers' quest for the passing record took a bit of a hit due to a fairly ordinary yardage day (by his standards).  He is now just barely off pace to beat Marino's record of 5,084.  Rivers is on pace for 5,083.
• Orton had a fairly ordinary day as well, thanks to some heavy pressure from the Chargers pass rush.  He was sacked 5 times! 
• His day would have been helped if Brandon Lloyd could have pulled in a bomb that went just off his fingertips.  He appeared to have slowed down during the play, before accelerating again in an attempt to catch up to the ball.  Had he kept going it would have been a sure TD and could have changed the outlook of the game.
• It was a good day statistically for some of the elite QBs, as Manning, Brees and Rodgers all passed for 300+ yards and 4 TDs.  Philip Rivers just missed out on joining the club due to a lack of yards (233), but still had 4 TDs.  Manning had the most yards of any of them, but was the only one in the group to do so in a losing effort.
• 4 out of the 8 NFL divisions have two teams tied for first place.  Out of the other 4 divisions, none of them has a first place team that is ahead by more than 1 game.
• Jacksonville leads the AFC South despite having the division's worst point differential (-50).
• The Cowboys have to be encouraged by their 2 game win streak under new coach Jason Garrett, especially with the news that Tony Romo could return in three weeks.  But they are still 4 games back of a playoff spot with only 6 games remaining, so they are still a long shot.  With their brutal schedule (New Orleans, Indy, Philly) they will likely be out of contention before Romo is healthy enough to return, which makes you wonder if they will even bother to risk his long term healthy by rushing him back.

Red Sox have tough choices this off-season

The Boston Red Sox are coming off of a disappointing 2010 season where injuries crippled the roster, sending a league high 23 players to the disabled list.  Losing players to injuries during the season is not a recipe for success, but now the Sox find themselves in danger of losing players another way.

Free Agency.

Several key players from last year's roster are eligible for free agency, including Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez.  The Sox will have some important decisions to make over the next couple of months that will have a substantial impact not only on the 2011 roster, but on future seasons as well.

There are some big name free agents available this winter, such as Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth.  If Boston decides to pursue any of these players then it may impact their ability to retain some of their own players.

The biggest prize in Free Agency this off-season will undoubtedly be Cliff Lee, the ace of the Texas Rangers that helped lead the team to their first ever World Series appearance.  It seems inevitable that the Yankees will throw a boatload of money at him to ensure he ends up in New York, but don't count out the Rangers to retain their star pitcher.  They have new owners and a new TV deal that brings in a lot of extra revenue for the team, which they intend to spend in order to pick up where they left off last season.  Lee would not be a good fit in Boston given that the Sox already have a lot of money committed to their rotation and do not have an open spot.  He will also command a lot of money and years, which GM Theo Epstein would be uneasy about giving to a pitcher that is already 32 years old.

The top hitters on the market are both Outfielders - Crawford and Werth.  They are both coming off great seasons and will both likely cash in with big contracts.  The Red Sox are one of many teams rumored to be interested in both of these players and should be considered amongst the favorites to land one of them.

As for which player is the better fit for the Red Sox, I would go with Crawford.  He doesn't have the power that Werth has, but he has blazing speed, hits for a higher average and at age 29 he is two years younger than Werth.  He's one of the best defensive Left Fielders in the game, with the speed to play Center Field if needed.  He was also one of the best clutch hitters in the game last season, hitting .359 with runners in scoring position.

Werth is also an All-Star caliber player, but he seems like more of a consolation prize.  Given that he is represented by Scott Boras, he will certainly be looking to be paid about the same.  He has more power than Crawford, and contributes his fair share on the base paths as well while playing above average defense.  He flirted with the .300 mark last season, but is only a .272 career hitter.  However, he does know how to take pitches and earn walks, which the Sox place a lot of value on.  His .367 career OBP is higher than Crawford's (.337) and he has him beat in career Slugging % as well.  His numbers are impressive, but giving him a contract that is 5+ years for big money could bring similar results to that of J.D. Drew. 

For a look at how the player's overall value compares between the two, Crawford's 6.9 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) beats Werth's 5.0, according to FanGraphs.com.

Let's look at a breakdown of the team by position to see where holes need to be filled and the options they have to put together a re-vamped roster.

Catcher: Victor Martinez is a free agent and given how many teams have shown interest it seems the team is in danger of losing him.  While it would hurt to lose a player of his caliber, it may actually hurt more to retain him.  He is looking for a contract of at least 4 years and wants to be paid like an All-Star Catcher.  The problem is, how much longer is he going to last at that position?  He's already a poor defensive Catcher (can't throw out baserunners and is only mediocre at handling a pitching staff) so it seems likely that before the end of the contract he will be forced to move to 1B or DH.  While his numbers (.302 AVG/.351 OBP/.493 SLG) were good last year for a Catcher, they don't translate to All-Star levels as a 1B or DH, positions that generally expect better power numbers.

The problem with not bringing V-Mart back is who else can you get?  Jason Varitek is well passed his prime.  If the team keeps their Captain it will only be for sentimental value and as a back-up.  That leaves Jarrod Saltalamacchia as the only other Catcher on the roster with big league experience.  Epstein claims he is comfortable entering the season with Salty as a starter, but despite his great potential he has yet to show it consistently enough to be a dependable option.  If they don't truly believe he can handle it yet then they may be forced to overpay for Martinez now and worry about how he fits in later.

First Base: Kevin Youkilis is a lock to stay in the lineup, but not a lock to remain at 1B.  Depending on if the team is able to retain Adrian Beltre, Youk may be forced to move across the diamond to 3B, where he started his career at.  He's a better defensive player at 1B, but finding a replacement there would be easier than finding another quality Third Baseman.  If the team plans to continue to pursue Adrian Gonzalez, either via trade with San Diego or in Free Agency next year, then they have to keep that option open.

Second Base: With a healthy Dustin Pedroia returning to the lineup there's no reason to worry here.

Shortstop: Marco Scutaro currently holds the starting spot, but he's been rumored to be on the trading block as a chip to acquire more bullpen help.  Jed Lowrie showed enough at the end of last season to suggest he could fill the position this year.  Top prospect Jose Inglesias is probably another year away.

Not that it makes sense from a talent or value perspective, but what a coup it would be if they stole Derek Jeter away from New York!  Would never happen, and actually would hurt the Sox (mostly defensively, but he slipped a lot at the plate last year too), but it would be funny at least.

Third Base: Retaining Adrian Beltre may be their best option given the lack of other options available at the position.  There is a steep fall between Beltre and the next best free agent at the position (Juan Uribe?).  Mike Lowell is likely to retire and Lowrie doesn't have the power that teams typically want from a corner infielder.  Beltre is one of the best defensive Third Basemen in the league and is coming off a monstrous offensive season (.321 AVG/.365 OBP/.553 SLG), which drives up his value.  The concern here is that he has only had one other outstanding offensive season in his career, which also happened to be in a contract year back in 2004.  That helped land him a big contract in Seattle, where he was a disappointment.  Part of his dropoff in production can be blamed on the pitcher friendly confines of Safeco field, but we also can't assume he will to continue at an MVP caliber level even if he stays in Boston, despite that he'll be paid like it.

If they can't retain Beltre then their best option may be to move Youkilis back to 3B and pursue a 1B through trade (Gonzalez, Fielder) or Free Agency (Konerko, Dunn).  They lack impact prospects at the hot corner, but could promote one of their 1B prospects such as Lars Anderson or Anthony Rizzo in a worst case scenario.

Outfield: The team seemed pretty set at the beginning of last season, but injuries to Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron forced the team to juggle between an endless amount of OF combinations.  It's likely they will focus on signing Carl Crawford, with either he or Ellsbury moving to CF.  JD Drew only has one year left on his contract, so he will stay in RF this year and likely be replaced by one of the young prospects, such as Ryan Kalish in 2012. 

If the Sox can't get Crawford then they will likely be happy settling for Jayson Werth, as long as the contract isn't too unreasonable.  If they strike out on both of them then they may be in trouble.  Cameron is getting old and with his injuries last year he can't be counted on to play a full season in CF.  He's more of a 4th OF/defensive replacement at this point.  Some of the younger prospects filled in admirably last year when called upon to fill in for injured players, but the team won't want to rely on that again if they intend to get back to the playoffs.  As expensive as it'll be to obtain one of those top Free Agent hitters, they can off-set some of those concerns knowing that after this season they will have the contracts of Drew, Ortiz and Dice-K coming off their payroll.

Another option is to use some prospects from their highly regarded farm system to trade for a player.  The Diamondbacks reportedly are shopping Justin Upton and were in discussions with Boston about a deal.  So far it hasn't amounted to anything because Arizona is asking for far too much for a player that hasn't proven himself yet.  He also was shut down with a re-curring shoulder injury last season which should raise some red flags, plus he is a strike out prone hitter that doesn't walk a lot, so he doesn't fit the team's philsophy.  You also have to wonder why Arizona is even considering listening to offers for a player they not long ago said was untouchable.  Still, he's an exciting young player with a very high ceiling, so they should keep an eye on how that develops in case the price becomes more reasonable.  The Brewers are rumored to be discussing the possibility of trading Ryan Bruan, but they are more likely to trade Prince Fielder.  They pretty much have to trade one of them for some pitching help, but they have to keep one of them.  Expect the Sox to show some interest if either is made available.

Designated Hitter: The team picked up the $12.5 Million 1 year option on David Ortiz's contract to ensure the slugger remains in Boston for at least another year.  He wanted a longer term extension of at least two more years instead of one, but the team was uncomfortable guaranteeing anything longer than they have to.  Smart choice considering Ortiz doesn't have the body of someone that seemingly would age well and is already 35 years old.  He proved last year that he can still be relatively productive, but his numbers are still in decline and the slow starts from the past few seasons are troubling.  Depending on what they do with other roster decisions they may need to leave the DH spot open in the future to provide some extra flexibility.  For instance, if they keep Victor Martinez or go after Prince Fielder next year then either of those players could wind up as a DH at some point.

Starting Pitching: The starting rotation is set with Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, Lackey and Dice-K.  They need to figure out it the ageless wonder Tim Wakefield will be back and fill in some depth as back up options to protect against the inevitable injuries.  They have some options in the minors that could be ready soon.  They recently traded for Andrew Miller, a former #1 pick that never panned out but could rebound with a new team.  Perhaps reuniting with former college teammate Daniel Bard will help him get back on track.  They may also look at some other low risk/high reward type pitchers like Justin Duchscherer or Brandon Webb.

Bullpen: This is an area where the 2010 Red Sox struggled and will be a key focus as part of their off-season planning.  Middle relievers are probably the most unpredictable players in the game.  They can look brilliant one season and fall apart the next, or come out of nowhere to be unhittable.  They need guys like Okajima to have better seasons, but also need to fill in some more reliable options to support the bullpen.  They could target guys like Rafael Soriano, Kerry Wood or Scott Downs, but they will come at a high cost.

A major issue hanging over the bullpen is the decision on what to do with Closer Jonathan Papelbon.  He's coming off the worst year of his career (3.90 ERA, 8 Blown Saves), but is still considered one of the top Closers in the game and could get as much as $13 million this season in his last year of arbitration.  He's likely to leave for the highest bidder next year, so the team is entertaining the idea of trading him now rather than watching him leave.  They could then turn the Closer role over to Daniel Bard and hopefully get back a few quality pieces for Papelbon, at least some of which may help add some depth to the bullpen.  Having two guys at the back of the bullpen that you can count on is a huge advantage, but if the Sox can find the right deal that could add more depth at a cheaper price then they should not hesitate to pull the trigger.

There are several directions the team could choose to go in that will dictate the direction of the team over the next several years.  While going after big name stars through Free Agency and trades makes for good headlines and keeps fans happy, the Red Sox brass needs to be smart about their decisions to avoid being stuck with contracts they may regret (we're looking at you John Lackey!).

Here is what a potential 2011 projected lineup could look like.  Numbers in parenthesis indicate the players value based on WAR, which estimates the amount of wins the player adds to the team compared to a replacement level player.

CF: Jacoby Ellsbury (2.7*)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (5.9*)
LF: Carl Craword (6.9)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (5.9*)
3B: Adrian Beltre (7.1)
DH: David Ortiz (3.3)
RF: JD Drew (2.6)
C: Jarrod Saltalamachia (0.1)
SS: Jed Jowrie (1.8)

*WAR is for 2009 season since player missed a big portion of the 2010 season.

Perhaps we'll see Jayson Werth instead of Crawford, or Adrian Gonzalez instead of Beltre.  Maybe Victor Martinez isn't gone yet after all.  There are so many possibilities with so many holes to fill that we can be assured of an exciting and buzz worthy winter in Red Sox Nation.

NFL Week 10 Review

You think you know, but you have no idea.  That pretty much sums up how it's been this season for the list of contenders.  At the start of each week you just never know who will come out of it looking like the team to beat in either conference.  Last week I posted a list of rankings for each team to show the order of contenders thus far.  A week later and that list already looks a lot different.

The Patriots and Jets would be moved to the top of the list following their Week 10 wins, while the two NFC North contenders both lost.

The Giants looked like the team to beat in the NFC before losing at home to the dysfunctional Cowboys, so Atlanta now looks like the top team in that conference.

There has already been 13 overtime games so far this season.  There were only 13 game that went to OT all of last season.  The record  for OT games in a season is 25, but there's a chance we could see that surpassed by the end of this year.

Green Bay, Oakland, New Orleans and San Diego did not go to OT this week, they were on a Bye.  It's the last week for Bye weeks, so every team in the league has now played the same number of games.

Here are some other things I noticed this week.

• The Falcons set the tone for an exciting week with a come back win at home against Baltimore.  Roddy White had a huge game (12 catches, 138 yards, 2 TDs), but no catch was bigger than the 33 yard TD catch to win the game with 20 seconds remaining.
• Welcome to the win column Buffalo!  It looked like they were going to blow it at the end for another heartbreaking loss after Calvin Johnson caught a TD pass with 14 seconds left in the game, but the Lions failed on the 2 point conversion attempt, so they failed to force OT.
• Detroit set a record with their 25th consecutive road loss, dating back to 2007.
• Another poor performance for the Vikings pretty much kills their playoff hopes.  Brett Favre's 3 Interceptions were a big part of why they lost.  He added another injury (shoulder) to his long list of ailments, but his ego won't let him quit by sitting out a game.  Unfortunately, the team seems to have already quit on Coach Brad Childress.
• Quotes from Vikings players about Childress:
• "We know that Childress doesn't have our backs, so why should we have his?"
• "We're playing for us, and we're winning despite him."
• "As much as I hate Childress. I will keep playing."
• "Fire Chilly!" (Ok, that one actually came from the fans, not the players... as far as we know).
• The Jets need to feel awfully fortunate to remain on top of the AFC East.  Despite supposedly having the best pass defense in the league, they let a rookie QB conduct a masterful 2 minute drive to tie the game with less than a minute left in the 4th quarter.  They went on to win in OT, but it took them nearly the entire period to do it, which nearly resulted in a tie.
• Cleveland should have had the game won on their first OT drive.  Chancy Stucky caught a pass that would have put the Browns in FG range to win the game, but rather than go out of bounds or fall to the ground he tried to fight for more unnecessary yardage.  The ball was stripped out of his hands and the Jets recovered the fumble.
• It's hard to fault a team for playing to win the game rather than conservatively playing for a tie, but starting at their own 3 yard line with 1:35 remaining is an uphill battle that may not be worth fighting.  By throwing an incompletion on first down it allowed the Jets to use their remaining two timeouts after the next plays so they were able to get the ball back.  It only took them one play to throw the winning TD pass.  Winning the game would have been a long shot, but the decision to go for it cost them a loss.  Cleveland isn't a contender anyway, so the difference between a loss and a tie is minimal, but for the Jets the win keeps them at the top of the AFC East, while a tie would have dropped them behind New England.
• The last play of the game showed some of the worst tackling you'll ever see by the Browns.  It seemed like once the ball was caught they assumed the Jets were close enough to FG range that it didn't matter anyway, so they had no interest in making the tackle. 
• In retrospect, Intercepting the Mark Sanchez pass at the three yard line was a poor choice.  Had the Browns just batted the ball down for an incompletion it would have forced the Jets to punt, which likely would have given them much better field position.
• The Jets became the first team in history to win back-to-back road games in OT.  One of these days their luck will run out.  Probably around the same time that Rex Ryan's snack collection runs out.
• Payton Manning was held to only 185 yards and ZERO TDs... but the Colts still won?  It's not like they dominated with the running game either.  Donald Brown led the way with only 50 rushing yards.  Manning played poorly (by his standards) but the Bengals were just worse.
• Carson Palmer filled up the stat sheet again while playing catch-up, but he still had a much worse game than Manning.  One of his three Interceptions was returned for a TD, which may have been a factor in a game they lost by 6 points.
• In the first game after the Dolphins bold decision to bench their starting QB, Chad Pennington managed only two pass attempts before leaving with an injured shoulder.  He's now out for the season.  So much for that plan!  They were forced to turn back to Chad Henne, who's confidence they had just shattered.  He actually started out doing really well, until he was also forced out with an injury.  Miami went Wild-Cat happy for a while before realizing they actually need a QB and turned to Tyler Thigpen.  Down to their 3rd string QB, they still managed to win the game against a team that had been leading their division.
• Randy Moss didn't have a big impact on the box score in his Titans debut, with only 1 catch for 26 yards.  It's the first time in his career that he's debuted with a new team without scoring a TD.  His presence and ability to stretch the field may have at least helped out his teammates, especially Chirs Johnson, who ran wild for 117 yards and a TD on only 17 carries.
• Despite having a talented backfield of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart, the miserable Panthers offensive line had been unable to open enough running lanes for either of the dynamic running backs to come close to a 100 yard performance.  So of course the week that both are out with injuries they get a 100 yard game from an unknown 2nd year RB.
• LeGarrette Blount was nearly as impressive in the box score, but more much impressive on this highlight  thanks to the impressive corkscrew flip at the end of this 17 yard TD run.
• Coaches always tell defensive backs that they shouldn't try to intercept a Hail Mary pass, just knock it down.  That's exactly what the Texans tried to do on a 50 yard bomb from David Garrard as time was running out.  It was the right play to make, but this time it backfired - right back into the hands of Mike Thomas for the game winning TD.  You can't even script a miracle ending like that.
• Arian Foster had a minimal impact on this game due to a season low 15 carries, but it was enough to keep him as the league leader in rushing yards.  This became the Andre Johnson show (9 catches, 146 yards, 1 TD), as the Texans looked more like the team from last year that could light up the scoreboard with their passing game.  Unfortunately, just like in the past, their defense gave up even more yards.
• The Chiefs built an early division lead this season, but it's quickly starting to unravel.  They were embarrassed in this game, going down 35-0 by the second quarter.  This high scoring shootout was a classic example of two QBs putting up great stats, with one of them actually playing well while the other just padding his stats in garbage time.
• Matt Cassell had a career day with 469 yards and 4 TDs.  That would seem impressive if not for the fact that his defense never came close to keep them team in the game.  I think it's safe to assume they didn't go into that week game planning for him to throw 53 passes.
• Kyle Orton wasn't quite as impressive, but he was close to 300 yards again and remains 2nd in the league in passing yards.  He continued his great rapport with Brandon Lloyd (90 yards, 2 TDs).  One of those TDs was so close that it was originally called that Lloyd was out of bounds, but a replay showed he somehow managed to get both feet in.
• The KC loss drops them behind Oakland, who has become an unlikely division leader, at least for now.  The Chargers are still right behind them and steadily improving.  Even the Broncos are only 2 games back now, so you can't really eliminate them yet (although we should).
• Tim Tebow threw the first pass of his career for a TD, while adding another rushing TD as well.  With the way Orton has played they might as well make him the QB of the future and keep Tebow in the speciality role.  Considering how many people doubted Tebow would transition to a successful NFL QB, why not stick with the guy that is lighting up the league?  The passing game works, it's the rest of the team that needs to be fixed.
• The Giants came into this week as the most feared team in the NFC, on a league best 5 game winning streak where they've looked dominant on both sides of the ball.  So of course they lay an egg at home against a Dallas team that lost their starting QB to injury and just fired their coach.
• The Giants defense made Jon Kitna look like a Pro Bowler.  Only one turnover?? Come on Big Blue, you're better than that!  Plus, Kitna isn't that good.
• The lights went out in the New Meadowlands, cloaking the stadium in pitch black and delaying the game for 12 minutes.  Eli Manning can't blame that on the brutal pick that was returned for a TD.  The lights were on for that play, just not in Eli's head.
• In a matchup of terrible NFC West teams, Seattle blew out Arizona to become the only team in the division to have a winning record.
• No team in the NFC West has a positive point differential.  Why are they even still a division?  If the NFL ever considers contracting teams, just start with those 4.
• On the bright side, Arizona finally made it through a game using only one Quarterback!  Congrats Derek Anderson, you made it!  Sure, his team got blown out and he played poorly, but it's a start.
• In the other battle of terrible NFC West teams, the 49ers outlasted the Rams in OT.  Maybe it's just that the Rams defense isn't very good, but Troy Smith sure is looking a lot better than Alex Smith.
• The Patriots rebounded from their embarrassment in Cleveland last week to post a statement victory in Pittsburgh.  The Steelers were heavily favored given that they were at home, their defense can't be run on and the Pats struggle on the road.  Yet that's forgetting that:
• The Patriots are now 23-2 following a loss since 2003
• Tom Brady is 6-1 in his career against Pittsburgh
• The Patriots created the blue print for beating the Steelers by spreading their receivers and throwing on them all game.  They know they can't run against them, so they let Brady attack them by spreading it around to a variety of receivers.  It's why Brady has been able to throw for over 300 yards against them in each of their past 3 meetings - all Pats victories.
• Tom Brady was fired up for this game.  Anyone who thinks he's lost passion for the game and become too "Hollywood" since marrying Gisele needs only to look at the examples in this game of Brady screaming at his receivers on the sideline to light a fire under them, demanding that they step up to the challenge.  Or the way he spiked the ball in the endzone after his TD run.  He clearly still has the drive to win that has made him the most successful QB in the league.
• The 17 yard run by Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis was the longest run any opponent has had against the Steelers defense this year.  He finished with a respectable 87 yards on 18 carries, most of which came at the end of the game when the Pats were just trying to run out the clock.
• The Patriots young defense stepped up big time in this prime time matchup.  They start 4 rookies on defense, which has caused some growing pains at times this season, but they get better every week and are really starting to gell.  They held the Steelers to only 3 points through 3 quarters.  The final numbers don't do justice to the game they played.  Most of the yards and points they gave up came at the end of the game when the Steelers were desperately trying to come back.
• Mike Wallace is just too fast to cover.  On a few of his catches he was able to just have Roethlisburger throw it deep so he could outrun everyone to get it.  No defensive back can stop that.
• The Eagles absolutely destroyed the Redskins on Monday night.  Michael Vick had a career night that started with an 88 yard bomb to DeSean Jackson on the first play of the game.  The box score line for Vick was just mind boggling: 333 yards, 4 passing TDs, 80 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs and a near perfect QB rating of 150.7. 
• The game was over pretty early, as the Eagles took a 35-0 lead in the second quarter.  The Redskins finally did manage to put some points on the board, but they couldn't stop the Eagles from pouring on more, so the game was never close.
• Before the game it was announced the that Redskins agreed to a 5 year extension with Donovan McNabb worth $78 million with $40 million of that guaranteed.  How soon do you think it will be before they regret that extension?  Do they regret it already after this game?  Is there any chance McNabb actually lasts 5 years in Washington?  Was this some sort of peace offering as an apology for embarrassing him in their last game when he was benched in the final two minutes?
• Andy Reid looks like even more of a genius now for getting two draft picks for McNabb when he clearly already has two QBs that are better.  Not only did they get decent value for a player they didn't need, but they stuck a division rival with an aging player on the decline that they were forced to convince themselves was their franchise player given what they gave up to get him.  Now Washington is stuck with yet another overpaid declining player who would have been great if it was still 2004.
• Terrell Owens, a former teammate of McNabb's in Philadelphia, posted the following quote on his Twitter account: "How do u justify a 78 million dollar contract w/this type of performance?" Pretty much sums it up.  When T.O. becomes the voice of reason in the league you know something is wrong.
• Every team in the league has at least 2 losses and 18 out of 32 teams have no more than 4 losses.
• Carolina is the first team to hit triple digits in point differential. Unfortunately for them, it's on the wrong side of it at -111.
• No team in the league currently has more than a 3 game winning streak: Green Bay, Atlanta, Oakland.
• All 4 of the AFC North teams lost this week.
• All 4 of the AFC East teams won this week (yes, even Buffalo!).
• The odds of either of those things happening again this season, let alone both in the same week, aren't very good.  But the way this season is playing out, anything can happen!

NFL Mid-Season Rankings

We are at the half-way point of the NFL season, with every team in the league now having played at least 8 games.  It's time to take a look at how each team has performed so far and list them in order of how they rank as contenders as we head toward the playoffs.

Keep in mind these rankings aren't based solely on the team's record.  They also factor in things like quality of opponents, remaining schedule, point differential, and team talent.

Spoiler Alert!: The 0-8 Bills are not ranked last!

With so much parody in the league this year we have a lot of teams that look like contenders without any elite teams pulling away from the pack.  Every team has flaws, which opens things up for seemingly mediocre teams to make a jump in the second half of the season.  Here is how they project based on the first half season's results.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2):  The Steel Curtain is back!  They boast the league's best defense, which gets most of the credit.  No team has given up less points than the Steelers. While the offense has been solid, it's the defense that won them games in the first 4 weeks when Big Ben was suspended.  Now he's back and the offense is rolling too.  He's still an elite QB with great decision making skills on the field (despite terrible decision making skills off the field) and he has a strong running game to support him.  Rashard Mendenhall is 7th in the league in rushing and was a big part of the offense in those first 4 weeks without Roethlisburger.
2. Baltimore Ravens (6-2):  The Steeler's AFC North foes are right on their heels.  The defense isn't quite as strong as it was in the past, especially in the secondary, but Ray Lewis ensures they are still a physical force to be reckoned with.  Joe Flacco has struggled occasionally, but still boarders on near-elite status and continues to improve thanks to added weapons like Anquan Boldin.  They do hold a win over the Steelers already, but still have to face them again.  Their schedule has been easier than Pittsburgh's so far and the Ravens have a loss against the Bengals, while the Steelers' other loss came in New Orleans.
3. New York Jets (6-2):  I still don't trust Mark Sanchez yet, but the running game is good enough to move the ball thanks to a revival year from LaDainian Tomlinson (which he can thank his great offensive line for) and the defense is even better than last year since they now have Antonio Cromartie shutting down opponents receivers in addition to stranding them on Revis Island.  When they are healthy and playing together they are a tough team to throw against.  They have the 2nd best point differential in the AFC thanks in part to their defense giving up the 2nd fewest points in the league. 
4. New England Patriots (6-2): They would have been first on the list if not for a let down on the road against Cleveland last week.  Losing Randy Moss has forced them to adjust on the fly, which will take more time.  But they are on pace to make the playoffs, and by then Brady should be clicking on all cylinders with his receivers.  Their Rookie Tight Ends, while inconsistent, have been a big addition to this offense.  The young defense has outperformed many expectations so far, but still needs some work protecting against the pass.  They are unbeatable at home and have improved a lot on the road compared to last season.  With a great coaching staff and a core of veteran winners holding the youngsters together, they have to be expected to put things together to stay near the top of the AFC.
5. Indianapolis Colts (5-3):  Payton Manning is having another MVP caliber year, especially when you consider the injuries they've suffered on offense.  No matter who he has to throw to, the Colts are still one of the most high power offenses in the league (4th in passing offense, 5th in total offense).  Teams can run on their defense all day, making it vital for their offense to put up points early to take away the team's rushing attack.  They are pretty good at defending the pass, in part because teams run against them more, but also because Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney form one of the most formidable pass rushing duos in the league (11.5 combined sacks).
6. New York Giants (6-2): Eli Manning has found a good rhythm with his young WRs, especially Hakeem Nicks, who has broken out to become one of the league's best at the position. The pass rush is much improved from last year (just ask Jay Cutler) which has helped them to the 2nd best point differential in the NFC. Their 5 game win streak is currently the best in the NFL and they are 5-0 against the NFC.

7. Atlanta Falcons (6-2):  Matt Ryan has developed into a very good QB, thanks in part to a career year from Roddy White, who may be the league's best WR right now.  Michael Turner gives the offense good balance, as he can churn out yards with the best of them.  They are above average on offense and a bit below average on defense without being dominant or a liability on either side.  The NFC is wide open, without any teams that appear to be at an elite level, but the Falcons can make as good a case as any to be the top team in the conference.
8. Green Bay Packers (6-3): They have only given up a total of 7 points in their last two games and have the NFL's best point differential (+78). Aaron Rodgers is having another Pro-Bowl caliber year despite being without Donal Driver for part of the season. Clay Matthews is looking like one of the best young defensive players in the league, leading the league in sacks (10.5).
9. Tennessee Titans (5-3): They were the highest scoring team in the NFL before their Bye last week, helping them to the best point differential in the AFC.  Now they've added Randy Moss as another dynamic weapon.  It remains to be seen how effective Moss will be with Vince Young throwing to him, but at the least it will open up more running room for Chris Johnson.  In what has been a "down year" by his standards, he's still 5th in the league in rushing and 2nd in rushing TDs thus far.  Expect a monster second half from him.
10. New Orleans Saints (6-3): The defending champs have stumbled at times, perhaps suffering a bit from a Super Bowl Hangover.  They have also had their RB depth tested with injuries to Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush, which has severely impacted their ability to function as the high powered offense from last year.  Yet they still find themselves in a good position to get a playoff spot, if not a division title.  A big win over the Steelers on Halloween was a big statement game to show the Saints aren't going away.
11.  Philadelphia Eagles (5-3): The Eagles have been forced to switch back and forth between Kevin Kolb and Michael Vick at QB all season.  The job is Vick's, for now, but let's wait and see how they string several weeks together with the same field general leading the way.  DeSean Jackson is one of the most dangerous players in the league with the ball in his hands and seems to be fully recovered from a brutal concussion suffered a few weeks ago.
12. Kansas City Chiefs (5-3): They stumbled last week against Oakland, dropping them into a tie in the win column for first in the division.  However, with a relatively easy schedule the remainder of the season (they get to face Denver twice) they are still in good shape to win the AFC West.  They are still the best rushing team in the league (179.6 yards per game), which they need to continue given that Matt Cassell is a mediocre QB at best.  It would help if they gave more carries to Jamaal Charles.
13. San Diego Chargers (4-5): Despite having the #1 ranked offense and #2 defense, the Chargers have a losing record.  Some of the blame falls on Special Teams, which has been awful.   You certainly can't blame it on Phillip Rivers, who leads the league in passing yards by a wide margin.  His 2944 yards puts him on pace to eclipse Dan Marino's all-time record.  They have a Bye to rest up now and should soon get back some injured receivers, as well as Vincent Jackson's return from his hold out.  Ryan Mathews has been a bust so far, but hasn't really been 100% all year due to an injured ankle that he's aggravated several times.  Hopefully the Bye will do him some good to help him have a stronger second half.
14. Tampa Bay Bucs (5-3): Coach Raheem Morris may have been a bit overzealous in claiming his team was the best in the NFC, but they might be the most improved.  Josh Freeman is developing into a good QB.  Their pass defense has improved dramatically, putting them in the top half of the league, but their rushing defense is still one of the worst.  They are only 1 game out of first in the division, but their schedule gets harder the rest of the way and they are the only division contender that has a negative point differential (unless you count whoever wins the NFC West, where they are all negative).
15. Chicago Bears (5-3): It's hard to trust a team led by Jay Cutler to not throw the season away (pun intended), but the Bears are still tied in the loss column for the division lead and are 2-0 within their division.  It may be ugly when they win, but they are still getting the job done thanks to the league's 7th ranked defense in total yards.  Their receivers have all underachieved and Mike Martz's offense seems like a terrible fit, but with so many other team's disappointing in the NFC this year, the Bears have managed to remain in the top half.
16. Oakland Raiders (5-4): It pains me to put them in the top half, given that the Patriots have their first round draft pick, but it's hard to argue with the fact that they have a winning record and the league's 2nd best running game.  Darren McFadden has finally broken out, as he's 4th in the league in rushing despite missing two games with an injury and he's also a big threat in the passing game.  If San Diego has their usual 2nd half surge then they should be able to pass Oakland, making the playoffs a long shot, but it's still great improvement for them.
17. Houston Texans (4-4): Last year Matt Schaub led the league in passing, but this year he's taken a back seat to Arian Foster and the running game.  With Schaub and Andre Johnson on board they are still a dangerous passing team, but Foster has been the team's MVP so far.  The undrafted RB wasn't even expected to be a starter before the season, but he's opened some eyes around the league in establishing himself as one of the elite rushers in the game.  However, as great as their offense can be, their defense is just as bad.  They are the worst ranked defense in the league, which explains their negative point differential and .500 record despite being one of the top offensive teams in the AFC.
18.  Miami Dolphins (4-4): Their running game used to be their bread and butter, but Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams have been mostly ineffective and the Wild Cat is no longer as prominent as it was in the past.  Brandon Marhsall was the new weapon they brought in, and while he's been good, the passing offense as a whole has not been.  Chad Henne is not consistent enough to carry this offense without more help.
19. St. Louis Rams (4-4): I'm surprising myself by putting them this high, but they currently lead their division and are their -1 point differential is by far the best in the division.  Sam Bradford is having a great rookie year and looks like a future star.  Their problem is they can't win on the road, so unless they can steal a win on the road somewhere then their ceiling may be 7-9.  Sadly, that may be enough to win the NFC West.
20. Minnesota Vikings (3-5): Has any team had more drama surrounding them this year then these guys? And it's not all coming from Brett Favre (although he's doing more than his fair share). Trading for Randy Moss, then releasing him after a month is just one of the many blunders Brad Childress has made this year. The players seem to be turning on him and it'll be a shock if the fans don't get what they want by the end of the year by seeing their team "Fire Chilly." At least they still have Adrian Peterson (2nd in the league in rushing) so they still need to be considered dangerous as an opponent.

21.  Washington Redskins (4-4): Benching Donovan McNabb at the end of a game they still could have won won't inspire confidence and may have cost them more than just a win that week.  They have the 2nd worst defense in the league (giving up 393.3 yards per game).  They don't look like a contender, but at least they are 2-0 in the division and have a winning record against other NFC teams.  They are 4-4 now and look like a team that will go 8-8.
22. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4): MJD isn't having his best season and David Garrard is as inconsistent as they come, but they've somehow managed to be 4-4 in the most closely contested division in the league.  Their terrible pass defense will get them killed in a division with Payton Manning and Matt Schuab, so despite being only 1 game out of first place it's hard to imagine them moving from worst to first in the division.
23. Cleveland Browns (3-5): A few weeks ago they would have been near the bottom of this list, but in their past two games they shocked the Saints and blew out the Patriots.  Maybe they are turning things around.  Payton Hillis is another one of those off the radar guys that is having a breakout season.  They have a great offensive line and their defense is getting better.  They are a ways away from contending, but things are looking up for Cleveland.  Well... as long as you ignore that whole LeBron James fiasco.
24.  Seattle Seahawks (4-4): They play well at home and terrible on the road, which means they've got a shot at a .500 record.  Lucky for them they play in the NFC West.  The only reason they aren't lower is because they have a legit shot at a playoff spot if they can win that awful division.
25. Cincinnati Bengals (2-6): Carson Palmer is putting up good passing numbers, but it's a bit of smoke and mirrors considering he is forced to throw all the time since they seem to always be behind.  A large percentage of his passing yards have come in the 4th quarter during a come back attempt when teams will allow him to pick up yards at the expense of forcing them to use more time off the clock and keep them out of the endzone.  On the bright side, TO is having a revival year.  Just when it looked like he only was only interested in teaming with OchoCinco so they could make reality TV shows, TO has shown he can still be an elite WR.  He's apparently content with the team losing as long as he's putting up big numbers.
26. Detroit Lions (2-6): They are used to being at the bottom of the list, but they are slowly inching their way up.  A lot of that has to do with Ndamukong Suh, who could be Rookie of the Year.  Despite only two wins, they actually have a positive point differential.  Plus, they were screwed out of a win against Chicago when the refs determined Calvin Johnson didn't hang on to the ball long enough on his would-be game winning TD catch.  They also would have beaten the Jets if they had a healthy Kicker to kick an extra point.  They easily could be 4-4 right now.  Even when they don't win, they usually make things interesting and could be a spoiler for some playoff hopeful teams down the stretch.  Their future would be a lot brighter if Matthew Stafford could stay healthy, but he may be out for the year, which puts into question whether or not he can ever be healthy enough to be their franchise QB.
27. Denver Broncos (2-6): When Josh McDaniels took over last year they started out on fire, but quickly fizzled, blowing the division lead and missing the playoffs.  This year they've been a mess all year.  They have no running game, despite using a first round pick on Knowshon Moreno two years ago and trading a 4th round pick for Laurence Moroney.  To make it worse, they traded away Payton Hillis, who's having a Pro-Bowl caliber year, for Brady Quinn, a 3rd string QB.  On the bright side, Kyle Orton is 3rd in the league in passing yards while Brandon Lloyd leads the league for receivers.
28. Arizona Cardinals (3-5): It's bad enough when team's switch back and forth between starting QBs from week to week, but the Cardinals seem to make the switch in the middle of the game every week. They need to make a decision on Derek Anderson or Max Hall and stick with it. Neither of these guys is the future of the team anyway, but constantly swapping them out for one another can't be good for the confidence of either QB or their rapport with their receivers. Maybe they are hoping that once Dancing with the Stars is over they can convince Kurt Warner to come back for a late playoff push.

29. San Francisco 49ers (2-6): They were picked to win the division in the pre-season, but they've been a disaster so far and are currently in last place in the NFC West.  Sadly, the whole division is so pathetic that they still have a chance to win it.  Alex Smith was a huge disappointment despite having weapons like Frank Gore, Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree around him.  The defense, which was one of the league's best last year, is closer to the bottom of the league this year and isn't getting sacks or forcing turnovers like they did last year.
30. Buffalo Bills (0-8): They may have the worst record in the league, but they aren't the worst team.  They've looked much better the past few weeks, losing twice in OT and nearly beating Chicago last week.  They've had some bad breaks and could easily have at least a win or two.  Ryan Fitzpatrick has given the offense a bit of a spark at least and helped turn Steve Johnson into a legit WR threat.  However, they are near the bottom of the league in both offense and defense and have the 2nd worst point differential in the league.  Rookie C.J. Spiller has been a bust so far despite the team shipping Marshawn Lynch out of town to make room to give him more carries.  They still have a few games left they could win, including this week at home against Detroit.
31. Dallas Cowboys (1-7): They sink so low because of the failed expectations for a team that was supposed to contend for the Super Bowl.  Losing Tony Romo to a broken clavicle hurt, but the season seemed doomed even before then.  Losing your QB doesn't have a direct impact on the defense, but since Romo was injured the defense has gotten progressively worse.  They are the only team in the league to have already fired their head coach, which is a bit of a surprise considering how many coaches deserve to be fired and that Jerry Jones never fires a coach mid-season.  There is just too much talent on both sides of the ball for the team to be this bad.  They are in a tough division where they have to play the Giants again this week and still have two games against the Eagles left.  A home game against Detroit and a road game against Arizona are their best chances to win another game.
32.  Carolina Panthers (1-7): The Panthers have played more like de-clawed kittens this year.  Their -96 point differential is by far the worst in the league.  5 of their remaining games are against playoff contenders, and of the other three games left they are on the road for 2 of them.  That means a home game against Arizona in Week 15 might be the only game left where they have a chance to win.  QB Matt Moore was injured last week and is likely out for the season, meaning rookie Jimmy Clausen is forced to take over.  He's been very underwhelming so far, making Carolina fans wish they still had Jake Delhomme (ok, maybe that's a stretch).  He may still have a bright future, but he's clearly not ready and taking a beating every week won't help.  Their running game was supposed to be their strength, but DeAngelo Williams hasn't had any holes to run through and he's also been hurt.  Jonathan Stewart hasn't contributed anything, even when given the chance to start.  They are easily the worst offense in the league, averaging a pathetic 153.6 total yards per game.  Oakland and KC average more yards per game than that just with their running game!