Boston has 6 potential free agents who's contracts are about to expire, including Ray Allen. There is a lot of money coming off the books this summer, but let's make one thing clear - this does not mean the Celtics have money to spend. Just because Ray Allen's $19 million contract has expired does not mean we can replace him with another player at that same salary. That's not how the salary cap works. Forget about signing Lebron James, Dwayne Wade or any of the other big time free agents.
The team salary for the 2009-10 season was nearly $85 million, which is far above the salary cap. Next year's cap is expected to be lowered again, with estimates projecting a cap of around $56 million. If we let all of our free agents walk we would still be over the cap, which severly limits the players we are allowed to sign. Even if Pierce opts out of the last year of his contract (he has an early termination option to get out of his $21 million deal to sign a new deal instead) it wouldn't be enough to sign any of the top free agents.
In fact, the Celtics can't be expected to be major free agent players until the 2012-13 season at the earliest, thanks to Kevin Garnett's cap clogging contract that will pay him nearly $19 million next season ($21 million the following season, his last on this contract). It's difficult to make moves when one player takes up over 1/3 of your salary cap space.
This summer is set to be one of the biggest free agent seasons ever, packed with franchise stars like Lebron, Wade and Bosh. There are plenty of All-Star caliber players in the next tier after the big three, such as Boozer, Stoudamire, Joe Johnson, and David Lee. Plus, as unlikely as it would be for any of these players to switch teams, there is the group of players like Kobe, Dirk, Yao and Pierce that all have early termination options to become free agents if they wish. Several teams, such as the Knicks, Nets, Heat and Bulls have gone out of their way to clear cap space with this free agent bonanza in mind. For a lot of teams this should be an exciting summer. Unfortunately, the Celtics are not one of those teams. Barring some very creative trades, we are likely looking at trying to lure older veterans to come play for a contender for cheap.
While it's hard to imagine being disappointed with bringing back a mostly unchanged squad for a team that made it to Game 7 of the NBA Finals, the team is likely in for a decline. The Big Three (assuming they all return) will be another year older. There is talk of Rasheed Wallace retiring (which may actually be a good thing considering his disappointing play this season). We don't know how Perkins will recover from his knee injury that forced him to miss Game 7 or if he will be 100% by the start of next season. Doc Rivers is pondering his decision on whether to return next year or take a break from coaching to watch his children play college ball, and Tom Thibodeau is likely to bolt for the head coaching job in Chicago. The defensive genious was a very underrated part of the Celtics run the past three years and he perfectly complimented the style of the head coach. Sometimes players can tune out their coaches after a while and bringing in a fresh voice can jump start a team, but with the run we've seen over the past few seasons it's hard to imagine many candidates coming in and doing a better job coaching this team.
Given how close they were to capturing an 18th title this year, it's hard to imagine the team blowing things up completly, yet it's also hard to imagine this team being the favorite to come out of the East again next year. It's not just the question marks surrounding this team, it's also what's going on with the other teams in the Conference. The teams with the most cap space are all in the East. If Wade convinces Lebron or Bosh to join him in South Beach or New York manages to lure two of the top free agents then those teams become instant contenders. Chicago is a young team with a talented core that could be put over the top by the addition of one of those superstars. Even if the Celtics aren't any worse next year, there are too many other teams that could potentially get a lot better. The road to the NBA Finals is about to get a lot tougher.
When the Big Three were assembled by trading for Allen and Garnett it was no secret that the team was going all in to win with a limited window to succeed in. The moves made immediate dividends, as the team won the title in 2008. Their chance to repeat in 2009 was derailed due to the injury to KG's knee, but with the starting five intact again this year they very nearly won it again. Thanks to the injury that sidelined Perkins for the deciding Game 7 you can still make the case that this starting lineup has never lost a playoff series when they were all healthy.
The team is looking at a transition ahead, one which may begin as early as this season. They can't really rebuild until Garnett's contract is off the books, so the team shouldn't bother to try to clear cap room until then. Here are some offseason moves the Celtics should make.
- Re-sign Ray Allen for 2 seasons at about $5-6 million per year. He's publically stated his desire to remain in Boston and we won't be able to afford a better player to replace him. It cuts up to $14 million off the payroll, helping us stay away from the luxary tax and the deal will expire the same time as Garnett's.
- Give Pierce a new deal. He is likely to opt out of the last year of his current contract. While he knows he can't get $21 million next year from anyone else, his concern with playing out this contract would be having to hit free agency the following year when he's another year older and after a new collective bargaining agreement has been set that will likely be less player friendly. He will want a new deal now, which will save us more money for next season, while keeping him under contract for a few more years at a reasonable price. Say a four year deal that allows him to retire as a Celtic at an average of $10-12 million per season.
- Re-sign Perkins to a new deal. This of course is dependant on his recovery from his knee injury, but assuming he's healthy at the start of next season I'd expect an extension to be worked out by then. His physical defense is invaluable and Game 7 against the Lakers, in which the team was dominated on the boards, showed how important his presence is to this team.
- Figure out which role players to re-sign. As much of a fan favorite as Brian Scalabrine has been in Boston, I wouldn't expect Scal back next season. Certainly not for the $3 million he made this year at least. Tony Allen proved to be useful in his role as a defensive stopper, but the team needs to be careful not to overpay for him. Another team may be willing to overpay for his services based on what he showed this postseason. If that were to happen then the Celtics would be smart to let him go, much like the decision they made to let James Posey walk away after 2008. Nate Robinson is a spark of energy off the bench, but not the ideal back-up point guard that this team needs. He's wildely inconsistant and the type of flashy player that some other team will likely overpay for. He won't be back unless he really wants to stay for less money. The team shouldn't bother to try with Sheldon Williams or Michael Finely.
- Fill in the rest of the roster with versatile role players. A back-up point guard would be helpful, but with the Big Three all another year older it will be even more important to have reliable back-ups for them as well. The second unit could use a more reliable scorer. They made the right type of moves last offseason with guys like Marquis Daniels and Rasheed Wallace, they just got unlucky in that neither of those moves panned out well.
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