History seems to favor Boston in this match up, but what really matters is how the teams match up now. The Lakers had the better regular season, finishing with the top seed in the West, which gives them home court advantage in this series. Boston started the season as the league's best team, but faded badly after a Christmas Day win over Orlando. From that point on they finished 27-27 over their final 54 games and fell to the number four seed in the East.
Once the playoffs started, the Celtics looked like a different team. They seemed energized and determined. They stopped blowing second half leads and played the kind of dominant defense that we had come to expect from this team since The Big Three were put together.
Head to head the two teams were even this season, splitting their two match ups with each team winning on the road by a single point each. Can't get any closer than that, but were these two games a clear indication of what we should expect from the Finals? Well, for starters, Kobe Bryant didn't even play in the game the Celtics won. On the other hand, the Lakers win comes with some doubt as well. Kobe did play in that game, hitting another one of his infamous game winning shots. After the game everyone gushed over Kobe's brilliance and uncanny ability to thrive in the clutch. What they forgot to mention is that the only reason Kobe had that opportunity was because of a bad offensive foul call on the other end where Ron Artest took one of the biggest flops in history by diving into the stands, despite minimal contact that occurred near the top of the key.
So both teams have arguments as to why their regular season losses can be overlooked when comparing the two teams. Both teams also have their reasons to believe they will win the series.
Keys for LA:
- The Kobe factor: Once again the Celtics will begin a series where the best player in the game is on the opposing team. Wade, Lebron, Howard and now Kobe. When it comes to being the best player on a team winning a championship there may not be anyone better in the league than Kobe Bryant. He's the type of player that can take over a game and win it single handily and the Celtics are one of many victims that can attest to his clutch game winning ability. When Kobe is on his game the Lakers are a tough team for anyone to beat. So far in this postseason Kobe has his highest scoring average, best player efficiency rating, best shooting percentage, most assists and best 3-point shooting compared to any other postseasons in his career. I think it's safe to say he's on a roll.
- Tall Task: The Lakers starting unit includes two 7-footers in Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. Their length creates a match up nightmare for most opponents, and the Celtics are no different. While Perkins and Garnett are both great defensive players, the Lakers front court has a clear size advantage. The Celtics were a poor rebounding team during the regular season, and the size mismatch could highlight that.
- Lock down D: The Celtics are known for their defense, but the Lakers have a few guys that can play a little D as well. Kobe is an all-defensive caliber player (when he wants to be), but Artest is the guy that could cause the Celtics the most trouble. Historically he has given Pierce headaches when the two are matched up against each other. Pierce is the best offensive option when the team needs a go to scorer, so if Artest is able to get in his head and take him out of games then the Celtics may have trouble scoring unless someone else can step it up.
- T for Temper: The Celtics lead the league in Technical Fouls this season, and that can't all be blamed on Rasheed Wallace. Kendrick Perkins was ejected from Game 5 against Orlando for receiving two technical fouls, and was nearly suspended for the following game. Upon further review, the league rescinded one of the T's, so Perkins was allowed to play, but he's still one technical away from suspension. The last series showed that the refs are not shy about calling Technical Fouls (whether they are warranted or not) and the Celtics need to be careful to avoid them.
- Walking Wounded: The physical match up with Orlando may prove costly for Boston, with the majority of the team getting banged up in the series. Marquis Daniels is unlikely to play at all due to a concussion. Big Baby Davis also suffered a concussion in that series, but has since returned and will play despite not being at full strength. Rasheed Wallace and Tony Allen are both struggling to try to play through their injuries. All that and we haven't even mentioned the starters yet. Perkins has an injured hand that has left him pretty useless on the offensive end, while Rondo was repeatedly beat up in the last series, including a hard foul by Howard that landed Rondo awkwardly on his tailbone and forced him to sit out for a while in the game. The Celtics locker room resembles a MASH unit. The time off before the start of the Finals will help, but these injuries could become a factor if the Celtics are significantly less than 100%.
- Rajon Rondo: The 2008 Finals was when Rondo first really broke out. Since then he has dazzled opponents and become one of the top point guards in the league. On a team that has three future hall of fame players, Rondo has taken over this team and arguably become it's best player. This is a match up where Rondo can certainly dominate. Derek Fisher has been on the decline for years and Rondo will be able to blow by him with ease for easy baskets for himself or his teammates that are open when the help defense comes to try to stop him. Rondo's brief career is full of highlights of great playoff performances. Expect some new ones to be added in this series.
- Tough D: One of the reasons many believe Boston was able to beat LA two years ago is because they were tougher. The Lakers were considered to be too soft to battle against the tough Celtics defense. While the Lakers have improved a bit in this area, they can't match the intensity and physicality that the Celtics play with. This season the Celtics were second in the league in opponents points per game and points per game differential. So far this postseason they have stepped it up even more on the defensive end, proving themselves to be the best defensive beast in the league.
- Artest Implosion: One of the biggest fears in Laker Land coming into the season was whether the team could manage to control the newly acquired and volatile Ron Artest. His reputation of immaturity is well known and it seems only a matter of time before the ticking time bomb went off. Artest was the hero in Game 5 of their last series against Phoenix when he made a great hustle play to tip in the game winning basket at the buzzer. Good thing he did, or else the game may have been remembered as having Artest costing his team the win with his ill-advised three point attempt in the final minute when the Lakers already led by three and would have benefited by milking some more time off the clock. Instead, he rushed the shot, and missed it, which allowed Jason Richardson to tie the game on the next possession with only seconds left in the game. You never know what Artest is thinking, and the problem may be that sometimes he just isn't thinking. Sooner or later that is bound to cost the Lakers.
- Bynum's Knee: Andrew Bynum recently had excess fluid drained from his swollen knee, which has given him problems for a while now. The Lakers size advantage is supposed to be one of their biggest strengths, but with Bynum hobbled he has not been a consistent threat on the offensive end and at times has become a defensive liability. With Perkins dealing with his own injury it's unlikely that he will be able to make Bynum pay, but if Bynum's knee prevents him from moving over in time to help defending the paint then it could open things up more for Rondo and Pierce to get to the hoop.
- Better Bench: assuming the Celtics bench can get healthy, they have a deeper bench than the Lakers. Lamar Odom is the only player on the Lakers bench that posses much of a threat, and if Bynum is limited by his knee injury then Odom will be forced to play more with the starters, depleting their bench even further. The Lakers certainly can't count on big contributions from the likes of Jordan Farmer and Sasha Vajacic. Likewise from the corpse that was once Adam Morrison (ok, he's not really dead, but his NBA career might as well be). At least the Lakers know that in the Finals they don't need to hold anything back, meaning the starters can play as many minutes as needed. But the longer this series goes and the more physical pounding they have to endure, the harder it will be for them to avoid using their bench. Look for Boston to try to score early and often in the paint to attempt to draw fouls to force LA to bring in their inferior bench players.
For Boston the goal has always been about winning the championship, and going through LA to do it just makes it that much sweeter. The uncertainty of the team's future gives them more of a sense of urgency to win now. There are whispers that coach Doc Rivers may not return next year. Ray Allen and Paul Pierce could both be free agents, and even if both return the team will be another year older and have very little cap room to sign new players to improve the roster. This may be the last chance for the Big Three to win together before they turn the keys over to the youngsters and rebuild around Rondo and Perkins. You can never count out a team playing with that kind of urgency, especially when it's one that plays the kind of team oriented style that the Celtics do. It won't be easy, and at times it may not look pretty, but in the end I think the Celtics will get to raise banner number 18 to the rafters of the TD Garden.
Beat LA! Beat LA!
No comments:
Post a Comment