Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Summer of LeBron

On July 1st the NBA free agency period officially begins and the numerous teams with salary cap room will frantically set in motion the plans they have schemed for months to attempt to lure the top free agent stars to their cities.  There are a few teams, such as Miami, Chicago and New York, with enough cap room to lure in two max free agents at a price tag of about $16.5 million each, along with several other teams that can sign a max free agent while still putting some decent complementary pieces around them.
This free agency period is perhaps the most star studded class in league history, but everyone knows that it all starts with one man - LeBron James.  He is the first domino to fall, as other stars know that where he signs could drastically alter the landscape of the league. Some have even said they'd like to wait to see where he goes, as his decision may alter theirs.

Ever since Cleveland was eliminated from the postseason by the Boston Celtics the focus on LeBron has turned to where he will be playing next season.  His hometown team in Cleveland has long been considered the favorite to retain the 2 time reigning MVP, but given the disappointing ending to this past season and Cleveland's cap situation hindering their ability to make drastic improvements it seems more likely that LeBron will be packing his bags for another city if he truly intends on being a winner.  LeBron's priorities seem to be on winning a championship and cementing his legacy as a global icon.  Cleveland no longer appears to be the best place to achieve either of those goals.

It's not just NBA owners and GMs that will be attempting to attract LeBron.  Everyone from players to celebrities to the mysterious, yet highly influential, William "Worldwide Wes" Wesley have been in his ear trying to convince him on where to sign.  Ultimately this decision will be made by none other than James himself, who must now make perhaps the most important decision of his life.

Where he will sign is the big question, one which we aren't likely to get an answer to right away.  Here is a look at the possible destinations of James and some of the other top free agents on the market.

LeBron James
Likely Destination - Chicago: If he's willing to deal with living in MJ's shadow then the Bulls may offer him the best chance to win multiple championships.  They have a great young core with Rose and Noah as well as enough cap room to sign another max free agent, such as Bosh.  That supporting cast is far better than what he ever had in Cleveland, and likely better than what any other potential destination can put together.  They were a playoff team without him.  Adding himself to the mix, along with another All-Star sidekick, and they could be world beaters.
Alternative Options
  • Miami: He could join up with Wade and the team could potentially still have enough cap room to bring in Chris Bosh, forming a Big Three that would rival any the game has ever seen.  Unfortunately they wouldn't have a lot else to put around them.   But would that matter?  They could fill out the team with guys like Adam Morrision and Mikki Moore and still be a top contender with that trio leading the way.
  • Cleveland: It's the only team he's ever known, he has a great relationship with the organization and he's a local hero.  He also knows that his departure would be a devastating blow to a city that hasn't won a championship in any major sport since 1964.  They are also the only team that can offer him a 6th year, plus a larger annual raise that could make it worth as much as $30 million more over the course of the contract than what other teams can offer.  So, you know, if money is important then that's one other thing Cleveland has going for them.
  • New York: The bright lights of Broadway could lure him in.  The man wants to be known as a global icon, and what better place to do that than in New York?  LeBron would enjoy playing in Mike D'Antoni's player friendly system and he's familiar with the coach from their time with the team USA team.  They also can sign another max free agent to go along with some nice young role players like Danillo Gallinari.  Eddy Curry's expiring deal could be used to bring in more mid-season help if needed, or make them players again in next year's free agent class.
  • New Jersey: He could be the biggest thing to hit NJ since "The Situation" hit the Jersey Shore.  Their new Russian billionaire owner is looking to make a big splash and can entice James on his desire to become a global icon.  They already have a couple of good young All-Star caliber players in Brook Lopez and Devin Harris.  The idea of playing in NJ isn't exactly enticing, but they will be moving to Brooklyn in two years.
  • Dallas: They don't have the cap room, but they have some pieces to work with in a potential sign and trade deal.  Teaming with Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Kidd would make them instant favorites to win a  title.  Mavs owner Mark Cuban is a respected owner known to be willing to spend money to win.  If LeBron tells the Cavs he wants to go to Dallas they may have no choice but to work out a trade, or risk losing him for nothing.  Dallas could send Caron Butler and Erick Dampier's non-guaranteed contract for LeBron and one or two contracts that they would like to shed.  For the Cavs to agree they will need to ask for Rodrigue Beaubois, which could be a deal breaker.
  • LA Clippers: Just kidding!  LeBron is too smart to let his career be destroyed by the Clippers curse and their bumbling owner, Donald Sterling.
Dwayne Wade
Likely Destination - Miami: Hard to imagine Wade being anxious to leave the comforts of South Beach.  He's won a championship there already and is a local hero.  The team has good leadership, run by Pat Riley, and they have the cap room to bring in one, or perhaps two, other top free agents.  Wade's first option will be to try to help recruit another star or two to join him in Miami.  If they fail to do so then Wade may be forced to look elsewhere.  Despite his desire to stay there, his interest will quickly fade if they can't put together a roster that he believes can be a winner again.
Alternative Options
  • Chicago: He's originally from there and the team would love for him to come back home, especially if they can't land LeBron.  However, while Wade is a superstar player, he may not be the best fit for them.  While he's not a point guard, he is a player that needs to have the ball in his hands a lot, which takes away from what Derrick Rose brings to the team.  They both thrive by driving to the hoop and neither is much of a threat from shooting outside, making them less than ideal as a backcourt pair on a team that lacks outside shooters.
  • New York: If they fail to get LeBron then Wade would make for a nice Plan B.  If they can pair him with another star free agent and Miami fails to do so then Wade may be moving up north.
Chris Bosh
Likely Destination - Chicago: The correct answer should be wherever Lebron or Wade go, and Chicago is as likely a place as any to get one of them and still be able to afford Bosh.  Despite his desire to be "The Man" on whatever team he plays for, I think he proved in his years on mediocre Toronto teams that he won't get very far without some help from another superstar player.  Chicago is eager to get a low post scoring threat and Bosh would be an ideal fit in the front court along with defensive specialist Noah.
Alternative Options
  • Miami: If he's tired of the cold weather in Canada then he may want to move down south to join Wade and perhaps another top free agent.
  • New York: The Knicks plan to lure in LeBron James rests on their ability to also bring in another star.  Bosh seems to be at the top of that list, as he'd be a much better fit playing alongside James than Wade would be.  Joe Johnson is also rumored to be a target, and LeBron is said to be interested in teaming with him.
  • Houston or Dallas: This may be a bit of a reach since neither team has the cap room to do it, but he's from Texas and has expressed some desire to play there.  If one of these teams can get creative in a sign and trade deal with Toronto then they have a chance at him.
  • Toronto: Well they can offer him the most money... so there's that.  If Bosh wants to play for a contender then he won't be staying in Canada.  Their best hope is to use him in a sign and trade to try to get back some assets rather than lose him for nothing.  Perhaps the Bosh/Bynum swap with the Lakers that was rumored around last year's trade deadline could come back into play.
Joe Johnson
Likely Destination - New York: The Knicks fans biggest fear is that JJ could end up as their consolation prize in what they expect will be a big offseason for this team.  Even if they do get LeBron, Johnson would be a great player to team him with.  He's better when he doesn't have to be the team's go to scorer, and his outside shooting will help spread the floor for LeBron.  If James signs elsewhere then Johnson could still be joined in New York by another free agent.  Teaming back up with Amare Stoudamire under coach D'Antoni would work well for him.
Alternative Options
  • Chicago: They are in need of an outside shooter, which they never replaced after losing Ben Gordon last season.  He can let Rose handle the ball and wait for him to dish it off to him for open 3's all night long.
  • Atlanta: They still have a young, talented core that has improved in each of the past three seasons.  He might be willing to stick around to see if they can make another jump, but there are concerns that this group has a ceiling that falls short of a title.
Amare Stoudamire
Likely Destination - New York: His best years were under coach D'Antoni, so it makes sense to team back up with him again.  If they let David Lee walk then the team will need to replenish it's quota for a dominant big man that doesn't play defense.  Add in another scorer to join him and this run n' gun team would be fun to watch.
Alternative Options
  • Phoenix: They made it to the Western Conference finals last season, which would be hard to walk away from.  However, with Steve Nash not getting any younger the window to win is closing fast and Amare will not want to find himself on a rebuilding team halfway through this contract.  The annual rumors of the team trying to trade him that he has constantly dealt with, the owner's notoriously frugal reputation and GM Steve Kerr's sudden resignation may all work against them.
  • Miami: He's on the list of acceptable running mates that Wade would approve of in order to get him to stay.  He's a big upgrade over Jermaine O'Neal, although those injuries he has piled up in his career may end up turning him into O'Neal in the near future.
  • Chicago: They need a scoring big man and they were rumored to be interested in trading for him at least year's deadline.  Noah would help hide his defensive shortcomings and Rose could be his younger version of Nash.
Carlos Boozer
Likely Destination - Miami: The Big Three of James, Bosh and Wade being built in Miami seems a little too good to be true.  If that doesn't happen then Bosh may have to pick between joining Wade in Miami or following LeBron where he goes.  If he goes with LeBron then Wade will be looking for someone else to join him, ideally a big man that can score in the post when Wade is looking to dish the ball off.  Boozer would be a good fit there, and if everything breaks right regarding where other free agents sign then he may find himself in South Beach.
Other Options
  • Utah - They have a pretty good team there already and he would get to stay with one of the top point guards in the league in Derron Williams.  However, the team seems content on letting him walk away and have confidence that Paul Milsap can replace most, if not all, of the production Boozer provided.
  • New York - If they strike out with other free agents then they may feel compelled to spend their money on someone.  Boozer has shown in his career that he'll follow the money (ask Cleveland), but the Knicks fast break style may not be the best fit for Boozer, who has struggled in the past with various injuries.
  • Chicago - Their free agency campaign should have a banner that reads Needed: Any big man that can score.  Boozer may not be their first choice, but he is on the list of big men they will be looking at.
David Lee
Likely Destination - New Jersey: Lee isn't the sexiest name on the free agent list, so he may need to wait a while to sign while teams target other players with a higher priority than him.  Hard to believe that can be said about a guy that averaged around 20 points and 12 rebounds.  While you can argue those numbers may be slightly inflated by the Knicks up tempo style, there is no denying Lee's talent and that he could put up good numbers just about anywhere.  His preference is to stay in New York, but the Knicks seem determined to bring in a flashier name with all the money they have to spend.  Nearby NJ might be an acceptable alternative for him, especially since they will soon be moving to Brooklyn.
Alternative Options
  • Knicks: It would be his first choice if they'll have him.  He would continue to put up big numbers in their up tempo system and he seems to like the big city.
  • Toronto: He could be used in a sign in trade for the Knicks to get Bosh, but for that to happen Lee would need to agree to go to Toronto, which seems a lot less likely than Bosh wanting to go to NY.
Ray Allen
Likely Destination - Boston: It would be hard to break up the band when they were minutes away from winning a second NBA title in three years.  It's true that this aging roster may be nearing an end to it's run, but then again so is Ray's career.  He seems comfortable in Boston and has expressed is desire to stay.  His decision may be impacted by whether or not Paul Pierce and coach Doc Rivers decide to stay as well, but as long as they can keep their core together than Ray will stay.  He may even be willing to take slightly less to stay in a good situation, say $10 million a year for 2 years, which would allow his contract to expire again at the same time that Kevin Garnett's does.
Alternative Options
  • Chicago: This team could use some veteran leadership as well as an outside shooter.  Ray is one of the game's best shooters and would fill a big need for them, particularly since Derrick Rose has yet to develop much of an outside game.
  • Oklahoma City: They are a talented young team that could use a veteran that is playoff tested and has a ring already.  They have some cap room, but are reluctant to use it.  Allen would be a cheaper alternative than blowing the money on one of the high tier free agents, and he likely would require a short term contract that could come off the books in time to free up money needed to re-sign some of their young players.
Rudy Gay
Likely Destination - Memphis: Gay is a Restricted Free Agent, meaning that Memphis is allowed to match any offer that he receives in order to keep him.  This gives them an advantage if they truly want to keep him, and ownership has publicly stated they are willing to match any offer.  Still, this is a team that historically has been stubborn about spending money and has been more likely to trade away their talent rather than break the bank on re-signing them (which explains why the Lakers have been to the Finals three straight years after robbing the Grizzlies of Pau Gasol).  If another team is willing to overpay for him then Memphis will be hard pressed to match.  With so many teams with cap space, the ones that lose out will have the money to spend to overpay someone like Gay to ensure they don't end up empty handed.
Alternative Options
  • LA Clippers: They have some talent to start with, including Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Blake Griffin and Chris Kaman.  Their starting unit is missing a Small Forward and Gay would be a perfect fit.  They have money to spend, and after LeBron laughs in their face at the idea of having his paychecks signed by Donald Sterling then they may turn to Gay as their backup plan.  None of the other top free agents after LeBron can play the SF position, which is their biggest need.  Most of the top free agents will shy away from the Clippers, but Memphis isn't exactly the best run organization in the league, so he may see the idea of playing in a city like LA as an upgrade.
  • New York: If LeBron is plan A and Joe Johnson is Plan B, then Gay must be Plan C.  Not what they were hoping for, but they could do worse.
Other notable players that have early termination options that could potential make them free agents include Dirk Nowitzki, Paul Pierce and Yao Ming.  None of them are likely to leave their current teams.  If they do opt out of their current deals it likely would only be to re-sign a longer term deal with the team before the new collective bargaining agreement takes effect after next season.

Monday, June 21, 2010

Where do we go from here?

After a devastating ending in Game 7 of the NBA Finals it's time for the Celtics to look ahead to the off season to try to improve the roster to make another run next year.  The problem in making these improvements is that GM Danny Ainge will have very little wiggle room under the constraints of the salary cap to sign free agents.

Boston has 6 potential free agents who's contracts are about to expire, including Ray Allen.  There is a lot of money coming off the books this summer, but let's make one thing clear - this does not mean the Celtics have money to spend.  Just because Ray Allen's $19 million contract has expired does not mean we can replace him with another player at that same salary.  That's not how the salary cap works.  Forget about signing Lebron James, Dwayne Wade or any of the other big time free agents. 

The team salary for the 2009-10 season was nearly $85 million, which is far above the salary cap.  Next year's cap is expected to be lowered again, with estimates projecting a cap of around $56 million.  If we let all of our free agents walk we would still be over the cap, which severly limits the players we are allowed to sign.  Even if Pierce opts out of the last year of his contract (he has an early termination option to get out of his $21 million deal to sign a new deal instead) it wouldn't be enough to sign any of the top free agents.

In fact, the Celtics can't be expected to be major free agent players until the 2012-13 season at the earliest, thanks to Kevin Garnett's cap clogging contract that will pay him nearly $19 million next season ($21 million the following season, his last on this contract).  It's difficult to make moves when one player takes up over 1/3 of your salary cap space.

This summer is set to be one of the biggest free agent seasons ever, packed with franchise stars like Lebron, Wade and Bosh.  There are plenty of All-Star caliber players in the next tier after the big three, such as Boozer, Stoudamire, Joe Johnson, and David Lee.  Plus, as unlikely as it would be for any of these players to switch teams, there is the group of players like Kobe, Dirk, Yao and Pierce that all have early termination options to become free agents if they wish.  Several teams, such as the Knicks, Nets, Heat and Bulls have gone out of their way to clear cap space with this free agent bonanza in mind.  For a lot of teams this should be an exciting summer.  Unfortunately, the Celtics are not one of those teams.  Barring some very creative trades, we are likely looking at trying to lure older veterans to come play for a contender for cheap.

While it's hard to imagine being disappointed with bringing back a mostly unchanged squad for a team that made it to Game 7 of the NBA Finals, the team is likely in for a decline.  The Big Three (assuming they all return) will be another year older.  There is talk of Rasheed Wallace retiring (which may actually be a good thing considering his disappointing play this season).  We don't know how Perkins will recover from his knee injury that forced him to miss Game 7 or if he will be 100% by the start of next season.  Doc Rivers is pondering his decision on whether to return next year or take a break from coaching to watch his children play college ball, and Tom Thibodeau is likely to bolt for the head coaching job in Chicago.  The defensive genious was a very underrated part of the Celtics run the past three years and he perfectly complimented the style of the head coach.  Sometimes players can tune out their coaches after a while and bringing in a fresh voice can jump start a team, but with the run we've seen over the past few seasons it's hard to imagine many candidates coming in and doing a better job coaching this team.

Given how close they were to capturing an 18th title this year, it's hard to imagine the team blowing things up completly, yet it's also hard to imagine this team being the favorite to come out of the East again next year.  It's not just the question marks surrounding this team, it's also what's going on with the other teams in the Conference.  The teams with the most cap space are all in the East.  If Wade convinces Lebron or Bosh to join him in South Beach or New York manages to lure two of the top free agents then those teams become instant contenders.  Chicago is a young team with a talented core that could be put over the top by the addition of one of those superstars.  Even if the Celtics aren't any worse next year, there are too many other teams that could potentially get a lot better.  The road to the NBA Finals is about to get a lot tougher.

When the Big Three were assembled by trading for Allen and Garnett it was no secret that the team was going all in to win with a limited window to succeed in.  The moves made immediate dividends, as the team won the title in 2008.  Their chance to repeat in 2009 was derailed due to the injury to KG's knee, but with the starting five intact again this year they very nearly won it again.  Thanks to the injury that sidelined Perkins for the deciding Game 7 you can still make the case that this starting lineup has never lost a playoff series when they were all healthy.

The team is looking at a transition ahead, one which may begin as early as this season.  They can't really rebuild until Garnett's contract is off the books, so the team shouldn't bother to try to clear cap room until then.  Here are some offseason moves the Celtics should make.
  • Re-sign Ray Allen for 2 seasons at about $5-6 million per year.  He's publically stated his desire to remain in Boston and we won't be able to afford a better player to replace him.  It cuts up to $14 million off the payroll, helping us stay away from the luxary tax and the deal will expire the same time as Garnett's.
  • Give Pierce a new deal.  He is likely to opt out of the last year of his current contract.  While he knows he can't get $21 million next year from anyone else, his concern with playing out this contract would be having to hit free agency the following year when he's another year older and after a new collective bargaining agreement has been set that will likely be less player friendly.  He will want a new deal now, which will save us more money for next season, while keeping him under contract for a few more years at a reasonable price.  Say a four year deal that allows him to retire as a Celtic at an average of $10-12 million per season.
  • Re-sign Perkins to a new deal.  This of course is dependant on his recovery from his knee injury, but assuming he's healthy at the start of next season I'd expect an extension to be worked out by then.  His physical defense is invaluable and Game 7 against the Lakers, in which the team was dominated on the boards, showed how important his presence is to this team. 
  • Figure out which role players to re-sign.  As much of a fan favorite as Brian Scalabrine has been in Boston, I wouldn't expect Scal back next season.  Certainly not for the $3 million he made this year at least.  Tony Allen proved to be useful in his role as a defensive stopper, but the team needs to be careful not to overpay for him.  Another team may be willing to overpay for his services based on what he showed this postseason.  If that were to happen then the Celtics would be smart to let him go, much like the decision they made to let James Posey walk away after 2008.  Nate Robinson is a spark of energy off the bench, but not the ideal back-up point guard that this team needs.  He's wildely inconsistant and the type of flashy player that some other team will likely overpay for.  He won't be back unless he really wants to stay for less money.  The team shouldn't bother to try with Sheldon Williams or Michael Finely.
  • Fill in the rest of the roster with versatile role players.  A back-up point guard would be helpful, but with the Big Three all another year older it will be even more important to have reliable back-ups for them as well.  The second unit could use a more reliable scorer.  They made the right type of moves last offseason with guys like Marquis Daniels and Rasheed Wallace, they just got unlucky in that neither of those moves panned out well.
Barring some creative moves, such as a sign-and-trade involving Ray Allen, the starting five should remain the same next year, with the ony changes being a few role players coming and going from the bench.  The team has put themselves in a position where they don't have much choice but to try to compete with a declining veteran team for the next two years and trying to piece together the right combination of role players around them.  There were times this past season where people were ready to give up on this team because they were too old and fell apart down the stretch.  Then the playoffs started and they were rejuvinated, making a run that nearly brought them another title.  Perhaps we can squeeze at least one more good run out of this group.  I wouldn't doubt them.  Anything's possible.

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

This kid is good!

7 IP, 4 Hits, 2 Runs, 0 BB, 14 Ks.

That's a pretty impressive stat line for any pitcher, nevermind a 21 year old kid making his major league debut.  Then again, this is Stephen Strasburg we're talking about, only the most hyped and anticipated rookie pitcher... ever?

It would be difficult for anyone to live up to the hype that surrounded Strasburg as he breezed through the minor leagues while fans anticipated his arrival in the big leagues.  It's possible that Strasburg may have even surpassed anyone's wildest predictions with his dominant performance on Tuesday night in Washington. 

Ok, nobody seriously thought he'd throw a perfect game, right?  But he was pretty close.  The one blemish on the day came on a 2 run Home Run by Delwyn Young on a 90 MPH changeup that he took a golf swing at.  Not a bad pitch, just good hitting.  He went on to retire the next 10 batters he faced, striking out 7 of them.

Strasburg's 14 Ks set a record for the Nationals franchise.  It is the second most strikeouts by a pitcher making his major league debut and no pitcher has recorded that many strikeouts in their debut without walking a batter.  It's also important to keep in mind that the only two pitchers to have recorded more strikeouts in their debut did so in eras that paid much less attention to pitch counts.  J.R. Richard and Karl Spooner each recorded 15 Ks in their debuts, but did it in 9 innings.  Strasburg was taken out after 7 innings due to the fact that he was approaching the 100 pitch mark for his outing.  Kid gloves for the prized savior of their franchise.  If Dusty Baker managed this kid he'd have a shot at 20 Ks.  Then again, his career might only last as long as Mark Prior's if that were the case.  So the Nationals were wise to limit him.

Watching Strasburg pitch, it's easy to see how hitters have so much trouble connecting with his pitches.  He's capable of reaching 100 MPH on the radar gun and was fairly consistently hitting 98 MPH and above with his fastball all night.  He has good movement on his changeup, which at 90 MPH is faster than some pitcher's fastball, but when compared to Strasburg's heater it is deceptively slow, which keeps hitters off balance.  He also has knee buckling curve ball that at times seems unhittable. 

Before we hand over the Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, MVP or any other awards we may want to throw at the young phenom, it should be noted that his first start came against a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that is barely a step above a AAA team.  He wasn't exactly facing murderer's row.  A look at the schedule ahead though shows that his transition to the major leagues is aided by a string of starts against teams in the bottom third in the majors in runs scored, including Cleveland, Chicago White Sox, Baltimore, Atlanta and San Francisco.  There may be more starts like this ahead, which will help him build confidence as he continues to mature into the ace of the pitching staff.

Every year around this time teams begin to call up their top prospects that they deem to be ready for the major leagues.  Often they are overly hyped and fail to meet the lofty expectations unfairly cast upon them.  There is a learning curve in the majors that players need to adjust to.  Very few are able to jump right in and be dominant players from the start.  Strasburg may be the type of player that can.  Believe the hype.

Friday, June 4, 2010

Umpire Issues

"I just cost that kid a perfect game."

The words of MLB umpire Jim Joyce after the controversial call at the end of the Tigers-Indians game in which Detroit starter Armondo Galarraga was one out away from becoming the 21st pitcher in major league history to toss a perfect game.  Perfection went up in smoke when Jason Donald was called safe on a routine groundball to the firstbaseman.  Replays clearly show the throw beat the runner to the bag, but the umpire made the call and history would not be made after all that night.

To his credit, Joyce was very apologetic after the game, admitting after he saw the replay that he had gotten it wrong.  Most umpires would never admit their mistakes, but Joyce personally apologized to Galarraga.  A classy move that may have made him feel a little better, but it's not enough to give back what he was robbed of - and nothing will.

If not for that blown call then Galarraga would have joined Roy Halladay and Dallas Bradan on the list of pitchers to throw a perfect game this season.  Think about that, there had only been 18 perfect games in the history of the game going into this season.  It's barely June and we've already seen two this season, and nearly (should have) seen a third.  That's unheard of.  Galarraga wasn't the only one that was robbed that night.  Baseball fans around the world were robbed of seeing history.

Baseball is a game played, managed and umpired by humans.  Humans make mistakes, and as Joyce himself admits, this was one of those mistakes.  The controversial story has made headlines across media outlets as the story of the day (trumping even the retirement of Ken Griffy Jr.), which brings to light an even bigger issue.  So far this season we've seen too many headlines of controversial issues involving umpires.

Last week it was umpire Bill Hohn who ejected Houston pitcher Roy Oswalt in the third inning of a game for what he apparently believed was a sign of disrespect by Oswalt.  As Oswalt explained after the game, he looked away from the umpire and mumbled something to himself in disgust after issuing a walk on a close pitch with a full count.  Hohn mistook this for Oswalt arguing the call and stepped forward to warn the pitcher.  Oswalt called back that he wasn't even talking to the umpire, to which point Hohn made the call to eject him.  Talk about a short fuse!  Even if Oswalt was trying to argue, it wasn't a heated face to face confrontation that usually gets a player or manager tossed.  You can't give a guy a quicker hook than that, which only leaves us to believe that Hohn either misheard Oswalt and thought he had really said something extremely disrespectful or that the umpire was just being a hot head and made an emotional call based more on his own pride than common sense.  The league has already stepped in and said that Hohn will be getting a "stern" talk about his actions.  That's great, but it still doesn't help Oswalt or the Astros.

Has any umpire made more headlines this season than Joe West?  Last week he was at it again for ejecting White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen and pitcher Mark Buehrle for arguing two separate balk calls against the pitcher.  Note that most people can barely describe what a balk looks like, and across the league umpires can't even agree on what a balk is, but replays didn't show anything out of the ordinary from what Buehrle was doing.  The rule is put in place to say that a pitcher must not attempt to deceive a base runner by faking a move toward home plate. If an umpire calls a balk on the pitcher, all base runners automatically advance one base.  It's not called very often, and to see it twice in one game against the same pitcher is even more rare.  So you can't blame Buerhle for being upset with the calls.  He actually had to be restrained by teammates after being ejected by West.  Guillen and Buerhle were both fined after the game on top of their ejections, but West was also fined, showing that the league was not pleased with how he handled the situation.

West also caused a stir earlier in the season with his comments about the slow pace of games between the Red Sox and Yankees.  He called it pathetic and embarrassing that the two teams are notorious for games that last well over three hours (league average is a little under three hours) when they meet.  He has a point about shortening the time of games by limiting instances of players stepping out of the box or waiting too long to throw a pitch, but all teams are guilty of that. The main reasons the Red Sox and Yankees games take so long is because they are two great evenly matched teams.  They both have great offensive teams that are capable of putting runners on base and scoring runs.  They are teams known for taking a lot of pitches and working the count to build up the opposing pitcher's pitch count.  Asking them to change their philosophy just to speed up the game is absurd.  The underlying argument about speeding up the game was a good one, but the way it came across only succeeded in burying the message under a backlash of comments from fans, players and the media that were offended by his brash statement.  In the end all West really succeeded in doing was embarrassing himself.
As more of these umpire complaints continue to build the pressure will be on for Major League Baseball to do something about it.  While nobody is suggesting that there is anything shady going on, much like the Tim Donaghy situation that embarrassed the NBA a couple years ago, but umpires need to be held more accountable for their calls.  With the technology we have today we can review replays in slow motion while zooming in from multiple angles.  We can track where the ball was thrown over the plate in relation to the strike zone.  We have the tools to judge and grade an umpires performance, but it's done little to improve upon the decision making of the umpires.  These umpires are people, and people make mistakes.  We can never expect them to be perfect, but what we can expect is for them to do all they can do to make sure they gets the calls right.  If that means using instant reply or relying more on assistance from the other umpires then so be it. 

While the danger of expanding the use of instant replay is understood (just ask Joe West how much it will slow down the game) there are instances where it makes sense.  Perhaps they could limit it to only a certain number of challenges per game, like they do in the NFL, or a replay could be called for based on a majority decision by the umpires in the game.  It only takes a couple of minutes to take another look at the play.  You're telling me that this is more time consuming than a player or manager getting ejected for getting in the umpires face to argue the call?  Currently only a disputed home run can be reviewed.  While I'm not suggesting that they start using replay to dispute called balls and strikes, there are certainly other areas of the game that could be open to review.  That night in Detroit was one of those times.

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

NBA Finals Preview

The 2010 NBA Finals will renew the best rivalry in basketball history when the Boston Celtics meet the LA Lakers.  The match up features the last two NBA Champions and the two teams with the most championships by any team in league history, led by the Celtics who raised banner number 17 by beating the Lakers in 2008.  The two teams have met in the Finals 11 times, with the Celtics winning 9 of those series. 

History seems to favor Boston in this match up, but what really matters is how the teams match up now.  The Lakers had the better regular season, finishing with the top seed in the West, which gives them home court advantage in this series.  Boston started the season as the league's best team, but faded badly after a Christmas Day win over Orlando.  From that point on they finished 27-27 over their final 54 games and fell to the number four seed in the East.

Once the playoffs started, the Celtics looked like a different team.  They seemed energized and determined.  They stopped blowing second half leads and played the kind of dominant defense that we had come to expect from this team since The Big Three were put together.

Head to head the two teams were even this season, splitting their two match ups with each team winning on the road by a single point each.  Can't get any closer than that, but were these two games a clear indication of what we should expect from the Finals?  Well, for starters, Kobe Bryant didn't even play in the game the Celtics won.  On the other hand, the Lakers win comes with some doubt as well.  Kobe did play in that game, hitting another one of his infamous game winning shots.  After the game everyone gushed over Kobe's brilliance and uncanny ability to thrive in the clutch.  What they forgot to mention is that the only reason Kobe had that opportunity was because of a bad offensive foul call on the other end where Ron Artest took one of the biggest flops in history by diving into the stands, despite minimal contact that occurred near the top of the key.

So both teams have arguments as to why their regular season losses can be overlooked when comparing the two teams.  Both teams also have their reasons to believe they will win the series.

Keys for LA:
  • The Kobe factor:  Once again the Celtics will begin a series where the best player in the game is on the opposing team.  Wade, Lebron, Howard and now Kobe.  When it comes to being the best player on a team winning a championship there may not be anyone better in the league than Kobe Bryant.  He's the type of player that can take over a game and win it single handily and the Celtics are one of many victims that can attest to his clutch game winning ability.  When Kobe is on his game the Lakers are a tough team for anyone to beat.  So far in this postseason Kobe has his highest scoring average, best player efficiency rating, best shooting percentage, most assists and best 3-point shooting compared to any other postseasons in his career.  I think it's safe to say he's on a roll.
  • Tall Task: The Lakers starting unit includes two 7-footers in Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum.  Their length creates a match up nightmare for most opponents, and the Celtics are no different.  While Perkins and Garnett are both great defensive players, the Lakers front court has a clear size advantage.  The Celtics were a poor rebounding team during the regular season, and the size mismatch could highlight that.
  • Lock down D: The Celtics are known for their defense, but the Lakers have a few guys that can play a little D as well.  Kobe is an all-defensive caliber player (when he wants to be), but Artest is the guy that could cause the Celtics the most trouble.  Historically he has given Pierce headaches when the two are matched up against each other.  Pierce is the best offensive option when the team needs a go to scorer, so if Artest is able to get in his head and take him out of games then the Celtics may have trouble scoring unless someone else can step it up.
  • T for Temper: The Celtics lead the league in Technical Fouls this season, and that can't all be blamed on Rasheed Wallace.  Kendrick Perkins was ejected from Game 5 against Orlando for receiving two technical fouls, and was nearly suspended for the following game.  Upon further review, the league rescinded one of the T's, so Perkins was allowed to play, but he's still one technical away from suspension.  The last series showed that the refs are not shy about calling Technical Fouls (whether they are warranted or not) and the Celtics need to be careful to avoid them.
  • Walking Wounded: The physical match up with Orlando may prove costly for Boston, with the majority of the team getting banged up in the series.  Marquis Daniels is unlikely to play at all due to a concussion.  Big Baby Davis also suffered a concussion in that series, but has since returned and will play despite not being at full strength.  Rasheed Wallace and Tony Allen are both struggling to try to play through their injuries.  All that and we haven't even mentioned the starters yet.  Perkins has an injured hand that has left him pretty useless on the offensive end, while Rondo was repeatedly beat up in the last series, including a hard foul by Howard that landed Rondo awkwardly on his tailbone and forced him to sit out for a while in the game.  The Celtics locker room resembles a MASH unit.  The time off before the start of the Finals will help, but these injuries could become a factor if the Celtics are significantly less than 100%.
Keys for Boston:
  • Rajon Rondo: The 2008 Finals was when Rondo first really broke out.  Since then he has dazzled opponents and become one of the top point guards in the league.  On a team that has three future hall of fame players, Rondo has taken over this team and arguably become it's best player.  This is a match up where Rondo can certainly dominate.  Derek Fisher has been on the decline for years and Rondo will be able to blow by him with ease for easy baskets for himself or his teammates that are open when the help defense comes to try to stop him.  Rondo's brief career is full of highlights of great playoff performances.  Expect some new ones to be added in this series.
  • Tough D: One of the reasons many believe Boston was able to beat LA two years ago is because they were tougher.  The Lakers were considered to be too soft to battle against the tough Celtics defense.  While the Lakers have improved a bit in this area, they can't match the intensity and physicality that the Celtics play with.  This season the Celtics were second in the league in opponents points per game and points per game differential.  So far this postseason they have stepped it up even more on the defensive end, proving themselves to be the best defensive beast in the league.
  • Artest Implosion: One of the biggest fears in Laker Land coming into the season was whether the team could manage to control the newly acquired and volatile Ron Artest.  His reputation of immaturity is well known and it seems only a matter of time before the ticking time bomb went off.  Artest was the hero in Game 5 of their last series against Phoenix when he made a great hustle play to tip in the game winning basket at the buzzer.  Good thing he did, or else the game may have been remembered as having Artest costing his team the win with his ill-advised three point attempt in the final minute when the Lakers already led by three and would have benefited by milking some more time off the clock.  Instead, he rushed the shot, and missed it, which allowed Jason Richardson to tie the game on the next possession with only seconds left in the game.  You never know what Artest is thinking, and the problem may be that sometimes he just isn't thinking.  Sooner or later that is bound to cost the Lakers.
  • Bynum's Knee:  Andrew Bynum recently had excess fluid drained from his swollen knee, which has given him problems for a while now.  The Lakers size advantage is supposed to be one of their biggest strengths, but with Bynum hobbled he has not been a consistent threat on the offensive end and at times has become a defensive liability.  With Perkins dealing with his own injury it's unlikely that he will be able to make Bynum pay, but if Bynum's knee prevents him from moving over in time to help defending the paint then it could open things up more for Rondo and Pierce to get to the hoop.
  • Better Bench: assuming the Celtics bench can get healthy, they have a deeper bench than the Lakers.  Lamar Odom is the only player on the Lakers bench that posses much of a threat, and if Bynum is limited by his knee injury then Odom will be forced to play more with the starters, depleting their bench even further.  The Lakers certainly can't count on big contributions from the likes of Jordan Farmer and Sasha Vajacic.  Likewise from the corpse that was once Adam Morrison (ok, he's not really dead, but his NBA career might as well be).  At least the Lakers know that in the Finals they don't need to hold anything back, meaning the starters can play as many minutes as needed.  But the longer this series goes and the more physical pounding they have to endure, the harder it will be for them to avoid using their bench.  Look for Boston to try to score early and often in the paint to attempt to draw fouls to force LA to bring in their inferior bench players.
I expect this series to go the full 7 games and include some memorable performances with lots of drama.  The last time these teams met on this stage the Lakers hung their heads after a humiliating 39 point loss to clinch the title for Boston.  Despite what they may say to the press, the Lakers have not forgotten about that.  They will be out for revenge.  They bounced back last season to win the title, but they didn't go through Boston to do it.  Like with any great rivalry, there is something more meaningful to them about beating Boston on their way to accomplishing their goal.

For Boston the goal has always been about winning the championship, and going through LA to do it just makes it that much sweeter.  The uncertainty of the team's future gives them more of a sense of urgency to win now.  There are whispers that coach Doc Rivers may not return next year.  Ray Allen and Paul Pierce could both be free agents, and even if both return the team will be another year older and have very little cap room to sign new players to improve the roster.  This may be the last chance for the Big Three to win together before they turn the keys over to the youngsters and rebuild around Rondo and Perkins.  You can never count out a team playing with that kind of urgency, especially when it's one that plays the kind of team oriented style that the Celtics do.  It won't be easy, and at times it may not look pretty, but in the end I think the Celtics will get to raise banner number 18 to the rafters of the TD Garden.

Beat LA! Beat LA!