NBA Trade Deadline

With the NBA trade deadline only a week away, the rumor mill is heating up.  Teams looking to make a playoff push will try to add the missing piece they hope puts them over the top, while teams on their way out of contention are looking to shed salaries and pick up useful assets to build for the future. 

As always, there are plenty of big names that may be on the market if the price is right.  The Grizzlies sending Rudy Gay to Toronto marked the first big move of the season, but there could be more stars changing addresses this week.  Let's check the temperature on some of these rumors to see how likely these stars are to be on the move.

Kevin Garnett & Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics

When Rajon Rondo went down for the season with a torn ACL, many believed it marked the end of Boston's run as a legitimate contender in the East.  Since then, the Celtics have won 8 of their last 9 games to head into the All-Star break as one of the league's hottest teams, which may make Danny Ainge reconsider any thoughts of breaking up the core of this team.  While most of the league may have counted them out and expect them to ship out their future Hall of Famers, we all said the same thing last year and this team ended up in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals (granted that was with a healthy Rondo).

If either player were to be made available there would surely be interest, but finding a trade partner could be problematic.  For one thing, Garnett has a no trade clause that he claims he's not willing to waive.  Perhaps he could be talked into a trade to the Clippers.  Considering he spends his off-seasons by the beach in Malibu, a move to LA could be a seamless transition as he winds down his career.  The Clippers could offer hot shot point guard prospect Eric Bledsoe and athletic big man DeAndre Jordan in return.

The Clippers have shown interest in Pierce as well, so if KG is off the table they could work a similar trade for Pierce by offering Bledsoe, Caron Butler and Lamar Odom's expiring deal.  That offer would be pretty underwhelming since Butler still has another year left on his overpriced contract.  It also remains to be seen how high Boston's interest in Bledsoe is.  He'd fill in nicely the rest of this year, but what about next year when Rondo comes back?  Bledsoe will be a restricted free agent after next season and it's hard to imagine Boston committing big money to him long term unless they expect to deal Rondo at some point as well.  That won't be happening anytime soon considering he's still recovering from knee surgery.

Denver has shown interest and has plenty of depth to make an offer, but KG already said he won't waive his no trade clause to go there.  It would take a lot of convincing to change his mind, but an offer of JaValee McGee could interest Boston if it also enabled them to pawn off Jeff Green's awful contract for a cheaper alternative like Wilson Chandler. 

Pierce has long been the face of the franchise, so not allowing him to finish his career here where it started would be a tough pill for many Boston fans to swallow and KG isn't going anywhere unless he wants to.  That makes it unlikely that either is going anywhere.

Trade temperature: lukewarm
Best fits: Clippers, Nuggets

Josh Smith, Atlanta Hawks

After a fast start, it looked like the Hawks were going to be contenders in the top half of the Eastern Conference, but since then they've fallen off dramatically.  They are now down to the 6th seed and potentially still falling.  With Smith in the final year of his contract, Atlanta sources are saying there is a 60% chance they will trade their power forward rather than risk losing him for nothing this summer.

There are plenty of teams that could be enticed by Smith's athletic talents, but just as many that could be put off by the asking price.  Smith is going to be looking for a max deal this summer, despite never making an All-Star team and not being worthy of that sort of contract.  He's a very good player, but not a super star.  How much are teams going to be willing to give up for the right to overpay him this summer or make him a half year rental?

Brooklyn is interested and has an owner with little worries about overpaying for talent, but they have few assets to give up.  They are rumored to be offering Kris Humphries and Marshawn Brooks, but why would Atlanta want Humpries cutting into their potential cap space for next year or a prospect like Brooks that seems to have fizzled out after brief flashes of potential as a rookie last year? 

The Lakers could have interest, but it's doubtful Atlanta would take Gasol in return given his latest injury.  The Spurs have shown interest and have Stephen Jackson's expiring deal along with promising young center Tiagro Splitter to use as bait, but Splitter can be a free agent after this season.  The Hawks would need to be convinced they can keep Splitter after this season to make it worth it, or else the Spurs would need to include Kawhi Leonard instead, which seems unlikely. 

Atlanta may be better off holding on to Smith for the rest of the season to make one last playoff run with him.  Retaining him may be their only shot at luring his friend Dwight Howard away from the Lakers this summer, so it may be worthwhile to keep that option open.  If D12 isn't willing to return to his hometown, they can always sign and trade Smith in the off-season for a package similar to the low ball offers they are getting now.

Trade temperature: warm
Best fits: Nets, Lakers, Spurs, Mavericks

Pau Gasol, LA Lakers

The seven foot Spaniard looked like one of the most likely candidates to be on the move a few weeks ago, before a foot injury flared up that could sideline him for 6-8 weeks.  He's never fit in with the Lakers system since the arrival of Dwight Howard, so it's clear they can't keep both big men on their roster in the long term, but what team is going to trade for him now when he likely won't be able to help this season? 

Toronto could be interested if it allows them to rid themselves of Andrea Bargnani's contract.  The Lakers could use a big man that can shoot to help stretch the floor in a way Gasol never could.  The problem is, based on what we've seen this year, Bargnani hasn't been much of a shooter.  After taking on Rudy Gay's expensive deal, it's not likely Toronto would be willing to add more salary either.  Houston has long coveted Gasol and could use another star to pair with James Harden next year, but their interest may have faded given Gasol's age, injury and the fact that he only has one year left on his contract.  So he's not exactly someone they can build around anymore.

He's owed another $19 million next year, which is far too steep a price to pay until he can prove he's healthy and that his big drop in production had more to do with how the Lakers were using him than a sign of serious decline.  I don't think Gasol is washed up yet (he proved what he can still do in the Olympics last summer), but his injury situation likely takes him off the trade table until the off-season.  Plus, the Lakers probably can't afford to let Gasol go until they have Howard's name signed on the dotted line to an extension beyond this season.

Trade temperature: cold
Best fits: Raptors, Rockets

Al Jefferson and Paul Milsap, Utah Jazz

The tight lipped Jazz aren't giving any hints about what they plan to do with their two big men that are both set to be free agents this summer.  They certainly won't be re-signing both and perhaps not either of them.  With young prospects Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter waiting in the wings, Utah can afford to move at least one of their veteran big men now.  Given that Utah has never been a prime destination for free agents, the cap space they gain by letting them both go as free agents doesn't have as much value as it would for other cities.  If they don't make a trade now, they can still work out a sign and trade in the off-season, but may not get as much value back then.

Along with Houston, the Jazz are holding off the Lakers and Blazers for the final two playoff spots out West.  Rather than become easy first round fodder for the Spurs or Thunder again, they may be better off falling back into the lottery if they can get future assets in return.  They should use their surplus of big men to find a young point guard.  They could inquire about Eric Bledsoe, assuming the Clippers are convinced they will be able to sign Chris Paul to an extension.  Or perhaps the Bucks would be willing to move Brandon Jennings, who will be a restricted free agent this off-season, but clearly wants out of Milwaukee (the feeling may be mutual there). 

Trade temperature: hot
Best fits: Clippers, Bucks

Carols Boozer, Chicago Bulls

Boozer has been a candidate to be traded or amnestied nearly since the day he signed his 5 year, $75 million deal with the Bulls.  While his days of putting up 20 and 10 a night may be over, his 15 points and 9 rebounds is still useful (just not nearly worth what he's getting paid to do it).  Good luck finding a taker for that contract though.  Perhaps they could move him for an equally bad contract for a player that fits their team better.  Toronto would be thrilled to move Bargnarni and he could fit well in Chicago if he ever finds his shooting stroke again considering the Bulls have Joakim Noah to rebound and protect the paint (neither of which have ever been Bargnarni's strengths).  Aside from that, it's hard to find a taker for Boozer unless he's amnestied this summer and can be picked up at a cheaper price.

Trade temperature: lukewarm
Best fits: Raptors

JJ Redick, Orlando Magic

The sharpshooting guard is having a career season just before he hits free agency.  A rebuilding Orlando team has little reason to overpay to keep him next year, so they might as well see what they can get for him now.  He could be a difference maker for a contending team in need of outside shooting, as no other player on the trade market can match Redick's sweet stroke from long distance.  The question is, how much will teams give up for him given that he's really just a role player that will be looking for a big raise next year?  Orlando also won't be willing to take back anything they would be stuck with past this season other than cheap young players and draft picks, which limits the market for them.

Trade temperature: hot
Best fits: Bulls, Pacers, Celtics

Danny Granger, Indiana Pacers

Granger hasn't played yet this season, but he should be ready to return after the All-Star break.  The Pacers face a dilemma with his impending return.  They've remained competitive in the East thanks to their top ranked defense (95.9 DEF Efficiency), but their 24th ranked offense (100.0 OFF Efficiency) could use a boost from Granger's offensive talents.  Then again, trying to work him back into the lineup could come at the detriment of the team's chemistry.  Paul George has blossomed into an All-Star this season and has clearly taken over as the team's top option.  They are both natural small forwards and George was less effective last year when sharing the court with Granger forced him to play out of his preferred position.  They've proven capable of playing well without Granger, so risking how he will mesh with George could be a variable they are not willing to count on.  If he's healthy enough to help another team that can give the Pacers something in return that will help improve their offense in other ways, that's a path they should explore.

Trade temperature: warm
Best fits: Clippers, Spurs