Friday, February 22, 2013

NBA Trade Deadline Deals

For all the hype leading up to it this week, this year's NBA trade deadline turned out to be a mild disappointment.  There were plenty of big names being flouted around the rumor mill in recent weeks, but most of them ended up staying put.  Even the teams expected to be the most likely to make an impact move ultimately remained quiet at the deadline.  That's the thing about trades - it takes two to tango.  Just because it makes perfect sense to try to move a player, doesn't mean you'll find a willing dance partner.  Trading a valuable asset for the sake of making a move is typically worse than not making any move at all.

When JJ Redick is the biggest name to switch teams, it's fair to say the deadline was lacking in blockbuster headlines, but that doesn't mean there weren't any relevant deals worth discussing.  Several teams made moves that either improve their fortunes for this season or for the future.

Memphis Grizzlies send Rudy Gay and Hamed Haddadi to the Toronto Raptors for Ed Davis, Jose Calderon and a second round pick.  Toronto sends Calderon to the Detroit Pistons for Tayshaun Prince and Austin Daye.

Ok, I'm cheating a little here since this trade happened about three weeks ago, but it helped jump start the league's trading season.  Memphis knew the day would come when they'd be forced to make some tough decisions about the core of their team given that they aren't willing to pay the luxury tax.  While Gay was their leading scorer, his inefficient shooting and overpriced contract made him the most expendable.  Ridding themselves of the burden of that contract can be considered a win in the long term, but it makes less sense that they moved him now instead of this summer considering they had just sacrificed their first round draft pick to dump the salaries of two bench players (Ellington, Speights) to get under the tax for this year.  Davis was flourishing with the Raptors this season, but now finds himself stuck in a crowded frontcourt behind Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, limiting his value to the Grizzlies.  This move has to be viewed as a step back for their chances to contend this season given that Prince can't come close to replacing Gay's scoring, even if their offense does get a slight boost by spreading shots around to more efficient shooters.

The deal makes less sense for Toronto, who clearly were desperate to acquire a star (or at least someone that's paid like a star).  Calderon's expiring contract had to be moved for something of value if the Raptors were going to commit to Kyle Lowry as their starting point guard and despite his improvement this season, they have enough depth up front to part with Davis.  I'm just not convinced Gay is the right fit for them.  He's played well since his arrival in Toronto, averaging over 20 points per game, but he's also taking more shots than he was in Memphis and is shooting a miserable 37% from the field so far.  He also essentially duplicates what they already had in DeMar DeRozen, which may make them regret giving him that big extension last summer.  Most people thought it was a terrible idea at the time, but the addition of Gay makes it look even worse.  They have similar styles of play and neither of them is an effective outside shooter, making them tough to pair together on the wing.  Having a big man that can shoot, like Andrea Bargnani, would help space the floor, if only Bargnani was actually hitting shots this year.  Toronto may have gotten the biggest name in the deal, but that doesn't mean they've improved because of it.  Free agents aren't exactly flocking north of the border, so making a bold move to acquire a potential star player is a move teams like the Raptors sometimes have to make.  It just makes a lot less sense given the previous moves they've made.

Meanwhile, Detroit adds a needed play maker in Calderon while unloading the last two years of Prince's contract.  That allows them to give more minutes to younger players and gives them more financial flexibility for the future.

Houston Rockets send Patrick Patterson, Toney Douglas, Cole Aldrich and cash to the Sacramento Kings for Thomas Robinson, Francisco Garcia, and Tyler Honeycutt.  Rockets send Marcus Morris to the Phoenix Suns for a second round pick.

What a steal for the Rockets!  Robinson has been a disappointment so far, but he's only 8 months removed from being the fifth pick in the draft (over Damian Lillard and Andre Drummond no less).  Nobody complained much about that decision at the time, so it seems hasty to write off his career already.  Houston has been looking for an upgrade at power forward for a while now.  Patterson has played well as a stretch four, but seems out of position there due to his rebounding issues.  Robinson, for all his struggles on offense so far, is already a better rebounder and has far more upside.  The draft pick they got from Phoenix should be near the top of the second round, where they've had success finding useful talent (Carl Landry, Chase Budinger, Chandler Parsons) in the past.

I can't see the logic here for the Kings.  Either they know something about Robinson that the rest of us don't or they are much higher on Patterson's future than most people.  Granted Patterson may be a better fit next to DeMarcus Cousins due to his floor spacing ability (which might force Cousins to plant himself in the paint more often where he belongs), but Robinson has the far higher ceiling.  Plus, Patterson only has one year left on his rookie deal before he's due a raise, while Robinson still has three years left.  This smells like a shameless salary dump, with the Kings getting a couple million bucks in savings and cash from the trade, for a franchise on the verge of being sold.

Not exactly sure how or why the Suns got involved, but for the price of a second round pick they get to reunite Macrus Morris with his twin brother Markieff.  Maybe they plan to do some sort of marketing promotion featuring the twins to lure back fans that walked out the door with Steve Nash last summer.

Orlando Magic send JJ Redick, Ish Smith and Gustavo Ayon to the Milwaukee Bucks for Doron Lamb, Tobias Harris and Beno Udrich.

After failing to complete a deal to land Josh Smith, the Bucks settled for Redick at the last minute.  He's a great shooter enjoying a career season, but he's also in the last year of his contract and likely to come off the bench for the Bucks.  It would have made more sense if they had managed to move Monta Ellis at the deadline to open a spot in the starting lineup for Redick.  At least any minutes Redick is given means less minutes for Ellis, who's gunning tendencies often torpedo the Buck's offense.  They gave up their only true backup point guard behind Brandon Jennings, which means when he's off the court the ball handling duties will be split between Ellis and Redick, neither of which are ideal candidates to run the offense.  Redick gives the Bucks some much needed outside shooting and if his presence on the court discourages Ellis and Jennings from jacking up poor shots, it will be an improvement for a team attempting to make a playoff push.  With all three of those guards hitting free agency after this season, the future of their backcourt is murkier than ever.

Orlando had to get something in return for Redick before his contract ends and they managed to pick up a couple interesting prospects.  Harris could have a bright future and is probably worth more than the late first round picks they were being offered by other teams.  They already have another similar player in Maurice Harkless, which may make it difficult to try to develop both projects.  If they can't find room for both young players in their rotation then they've at least added a future trade asset that can be used beyond this season.

Washington Wizards send Jordan Crawford to the Boston Celtics for Leandro Barbosa and Jason Collins.

The Celtics were in need of another guard following the season ending injuries to Rajon Rondo and Barbosa and Crawford was the best available option they could afford without sacrificing from their core.  I'm not a fan of Crawford due to his inefficient shooting (career 40% shooter, 29% from beyond the arc) and abysmal defense, but he's one of those irrational confidence guys capable of getting hot and carrying the offense in short spurts.  Per ESPN, Crawford is also one of only seven players in the league averaging 18 points, 4 rebounds and 5 assists per 36 minutes.  The others on that list are All-Stars, except Manu Ginobilli, who has long been one of the league's best sixth men when healthy.  So there's that.  Crawford's scoring could be a needed boost to the Celtic's below average offense, so long as Doc Rivers benches him before he manges to shoot them out of a game.  Given what a mess the Wizards have been the past few years, a change of scenery with Rivers coaching and Kevin Garnett barking in his ear may even straighten him out and help him reach his potential.  I'm cautious of expecting too much, but given that Boston landed him for a player that currently can't walk and a center among the league's worst in PER, it's a low cost risk worth taking.

For Washington, it's a straight salary dump.  They acquire two expiring contracts, neither of which will provide much (if any) value this season.  Considering Crawford is only owed $2.2 million next year, it's a bit perplexing why they felt the need to rid themselves of his contract given his potential as a scorer, but after he'd found his way out of their rotation following the return of John Wall, they apparently had no further use for him.  Still, you would think they should have at least managed to get a second round pick in the deal.

New York Knicks send Ronnie Brewer to the Oklahoma City Thunder for a 2nd round draft pick.

The Thunder added another wing that can be used as a defensive stopper when Kevin Durant rests or moves to the four spot in smaller lineups.  Thabo Sefolosha had filled that role at times, but isn't tall enough to defend some of the bigger wings at the position.  Brewer has struggled with his shot this season (36% from the field) and has never been able to shoot from long range, but he's capable of contributing on offense with cuts to the basket and being a solid defender.  Plus it's not like they gave up much for him.

The Knicks open a roster spot that they can use to bring in another big, save a little in luxury tax and pick up a late second round draft pick.  Not bad for a player that they weren't using much anymore.

Oklahoma City Thunder send Eric Maynor to the Portland Trail Blazers for the rights to Giorgos Printezis

To help make room for the addition of Brewer, the Thunder shipped out Eric Maynor.  Once an exciting young prospect, the shine on Maynor has faded following a torn ACL.  He's struggled since his return, but has been gradually improving recently since shedding the bulky knee brace.  The Thunder gained a valuable trade exception in the deal that they can use anytime within the next year.  Printezis is currently playing as a key member of the defending Euroleague champs, so if he's able to make a successfully transition to the NBA at some point, he may be worth more than the second round pick they gave up in the Brewer deal.

If Maynor continues to improve on his comeback from injury he will provide the Blazers with a huge upgrade to one of the league's worst bench units.  He can't be any worse than what they had for backup guards and he's on an expiring contract.  If he doesn't work out for them they can let him walk after the season without having given up much.  If he recovers to reach his potential, they may have found themselves a bargain.

Phoenix Suns send Sebastian Telfair to the Toronto Raptors for Hamed Haddadi and a second round draft pick.

Telfair is still a decent backup point guard, but he had fallen out of the Suns rotation, making him expendable.  It's unclear what Toronto's motive is in trading for him if he'll slot in as the third point guard on their depth chart.  Not that Haddadi was getting much usage since he was acquired in the Rudy Gay deal either, so essentially both teams traded for players they don't really need, but Phoenix scored a second round pick for it.

Golden State Warriors send Charles Jenkins to the Philadelphia 76ers and Jeremy Tyler to the Atlanta Hawks for conditional second round picks

The conditions on those two draft picks are unclear, but supposedly the Warriors will probably never actually see them.  Not that it matters to them.  This move was about getting under the luxury tax by ridding themselves of two players they weren't using anyway.  Meanwhile, the Sixers and Hawks pick up a player they may be able to find a fit for and essentially got them for free.

Dallas Mavericks send Dahnaty Jones to the Atlanta Hawks for Anthony Morrow

The Mavs needed some more shooting, which Morrow certainly gives them.  Given that they have very slim hopes of getting back into the playoff race without a bigger move, they might have been better off selling to improve their lottery chances, but the impact of this deal is pretty minimal anyway.  Jones doesn't add much for the Hawks, but the deal does save them a little money.

Miami Heat send Dexter Pittman and a second round pick to the Memphis Grizzlies for the rights to Rickey Sanchez

Memphis needed to add another player in order to meet the league minimum roster requirements, so they took Pittman off Miami's hands while gaining a draft pick.  Not a bad deal, even if Pittman doesn't bring much to the table for them.  Miami wasn't using him anyway and they've now freed up a roster spot and some money to add a buy out candidate next month.

Charlotte Bobcats send Hakim Warrick to the Orlando Magic for Josh McRoberts

This is a meaningless swap of players of little value. Charlotte actually saves some money in the deal, which makes up for a previous poor decision to trade for Warrick in the first place.  The deal makes less sense for Orlando, who reportedly is going to buy out Warrick following the trade.  Since he costs more than McRoberts, it would have been cheaper for them to just buy out McRoberts instead of making this trade.  Unless there are draft picks and/or cash involved that we don't know about yet, it's hard to find what Orlando gained from this deal.

A few thoughts on teams that ended up standing pat at the deadline.
  • After a whirlwind of trade rumors, the Atlanta Hawks ended up hanging on to Josh Smith.  They were reportedly involved in serious discussions with the Bucks up until the last minute before those talks fell apart.  None of the offers I saw out there for Smith were close to fair value, even for a player on the verge of free agency.  On the other hand, teams were likely cautious of giving up much for a guy they might then feel obligated to overpay with a max extension this summer.  If Atlanta wasn't able to find an offer of expiring deals, a promising young player and a draft pick then they did the right thing by holding on to him.  They are too far up in the East standings to tank their way into the lottery at this point, so they might as well make one last run with Smith.  Perhaps they can use him as bait to lure his buddy Dwight Howard to Atlanta this summer.  If not, they could always use him in a sign-and-trade, where they could potentially get better offers than what they were getting now.
  • I'm not sure what Utah was thinking by hanging on to both Al Jefferson and Paul Milsap, given their dire need for help in the backcourt and their enviable depth up front.  With Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter waiting in the wings, it's doubtful that both Jefferson and Milsap will return next year.  Maybe neither of them will.  Now they risk losing both of them for nothing this summer and still haven't addressed their need for a guard.
  • The Clippers dangled Eric Bledsoe to several teams, but ended up hanging on to him.  Perhaps they are worried that Chris Paul won't re-sign this summer, but it's hard to imagine him leaving LA unless the Clippers completely fall apart the rest of the way.  They wanted Kevin Garnett, but KG used his no trade clause to turn them down.  Dealing him to Utah for one of their big men made a lot of sense for both sides, so not sure which team backed out on those talks.  Bledsoe still helps the Clippers second unit, which has struggled lately, but he's under utilized in that role and they have a bigger need up front.
  • The Lakers will have a mess on their hands this summer in trying to figure out what to do with Dwight Howard.  Rumor has it the tension between D12 and Kobe has gotten so bad that Dwight might tell the Lakers he won't resign unless they get rid of Kobe first (which isn't happening, even if it might be the best long term decision for the franchise from a basketball standpoint).  Maybe Howard calms down and decides he's better off staying in LA after all.  Maybe he and Kobe even patch things up before then.  If not, they missed their chance to trade Howard while his value is still high.  The leverage switches to Howard's side after the season.  If they do intend to keep Howard, they still need to figure out what to do with Pau Gasol, since those two clearly can't play together in Mike D'Antoni's system.  Gasol's current injury probably took him off the trade table for now, but they can revisit that option this summer once they figure out what's going on with Howard.
  • Another year goes by with the Celtics on the verge of blowing things up, but it didn't happen.  Losing Rondo for the year could have been the perfect excuse to shake things up, but it couldn't happen if KG wasn't willing to waive that no trade clause.  There would be no point in upsetting the fan base by trading Paul Pierce unless KG was being shipped out too and there would be few suitors for Rondo until he proves he's healthy again.  Boston made the right choice by keeping the core together and adding a useful bench option instead to make another run this year.  As far fetched as their chances this season may be, it's better than the alternative at this point.

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