A letter to Ray Allen

Dear Ray,

In the five years that you wore Celtic green you became an icon and a legend in the eyes of Boston fans.  You won a championship here.  You set the all-time three point record here.  You were a multi-time All-Star here and when you one day go into the Hall of Fame, we here in Boston will remember the good times when we watched the graceful arc of your jump shot.

This is not one of those good times.  You are no longer with us, you are against us.  Your former teammates felt stung by your betrayal when you left for our biggest conference rival in Miami, so their initial reaction was to lash out.  KG says he lost your phone number.  Rondo won't even call you by name, referring to you only as No. 20.  Even Doc stepped in with a few barbs of his own (although they seemed more intended to protect his young point guard against criticism initiated by you).  Fair or unfair, they said their piece, now they've moved on.  It's time that you did the same.

There's no need to continue to defend your decision to take your talents to South Beach.  No need to bring up issues from years ago.  Here's the bottom line - you felt disrespected by the Celtics for a variety of reasons, so you joined their biggest rival out of spite.  Like a scorned teenage girl trying to make her ex jealous by having a fling with the high school quarterback.  That's how your comments have come across lately, because let's face it - Miami, of all teams, does not offer you the best option to meet the needs you felt weren't being met here.  You picked them because you knew it would hurt us the most.

Things I Noticed: Week 8

About a third of the league has played 8 games now, which means we're already at about the halfway point of the season.  At this point we have a pretty decent idea about each team's identity, but just about every division finds itself in a tight race.  Well, except for the two South divisions.  Atlanta and Houston can feel pretty safe about printing those division title banners already, but for everyone else, there's still a long road ahead.
Bye Weeks: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Houston

Here are some things I noticed this week:

• Tampa Bay may have saved it's season behind a career day from Doug Martin.  The rookie RB rushed for 135 yards and a TD, while also catching 3 passes for 79 yards and another score.  Martin's explosiveness was on display on his 64 yard catch and run for a score early in the second half, as well as a 41 yard rush early in the game that helped the Bucs get into position to score first.
• Adrian Peterson had a big day as well, including a 64 yard TD run, but his second quarter fumble helped set up a quick score for the Bucs that turned the tide in their favor.  Peterson struggled holding on to the ball early in his career, fumbling 19 times in his first three seasons (losing 12 of them).  He recovered to get those issues under control in recent years, losing a total of only 1 fumble over the past two seasons, but has already fumbled twice this season.
• The Vikings got off to a surprising 5-2 start, but their run may be at an end.  They travel to Seattle next week and then face a beatable Lions teams at home before their bye.  Even if they manage a split of those two games, their post-bye schedule is brutal, including facing the Bears and Packers twice and a road trip to Houston.  They've certainly improved, but finishing with a winning record seems a bit too optimistic.

Why the Thunder traded James Harden

Last week in my NBA Preview I ranked the Oklahoma City Thunder as the top team in the West.  Looks like I posted that article a bit too early.  In the wake of the surprising deal that shipped James Harden to Houston, the Western Conference is now much more wide open.

Why did the Thunder seemingly take a step back when they were on the brink of winning a title?  Money.  That's the simplest explanation, so we'll start with that.  The Thunder had until midnight on Halloween to lock up Harden with an extension or he would be eligible for restricted free agency after this season.  After Harden turned down their offer of $55.5 million over 4 years - $4.5 million short of the max they are allowed - the Thunder looked for alternatives.  While that extra million or so per season doesn't seem like much in the grand scheme of things, the restrictions in the new CBA agreement make it a much more difficult pill to swallow.  Keeping Harden would have pushed the payroll over $100 million when factoring in luxury tax fees.  That's fine if you're a team like the Lakers that make more than that annually before ever selling a ticket thanks to their new TV deal, but a small market team like OKC, which makes only about $15 million a year off it's local TV contract, can't afford that kind of luxury.  Few teams can.  Outside of New York, LA and Miami, you don't see too many teams with three max contract players, let alone four.

NBA Preview

There is no lockout this year keeping frustrated hoops fans waiting.  No compressed schedule, no teams frantically struggling to put their rosters and rotations together at the last minute.  The NBA season has returned in full force with a more traditional schedule that will start at the time we expect it.

After an off-season that saw several big name stars find new homes, the landscape of the league has been slightly altered.  With that in mind, let's take a look at the teams and predict how they will finish in their respective conferences.

Eastern Conference

1.  Miami Heat

The King finally got his ring - even if it did come in a shortened season.  The defending champs are the favorite to defend their throne at the top of the East.  LeBron James is still the league's best player and Miami's offense reached new levels when they went small ball with LeBron at power forward, moving Chris Bosh to center.  Neither star particularly likes playing out of position, but using that line-up removes the offensively inept Joel Anthony from the starting unit.  It took them a year to get it right, but LeBron and his side-kick D-Wade have figured out how to share the ball, making them the league's most dangerous tandem.  The Heat have knock down shooters for their stars to kick it back out to for open shots and have now added the league's all-time best 3-point shooter in Ray Allen.  The bench is still thin, but not as much so as in the previous two years.  An injury to any of their big three would still be devastating, but as long as they stay relatively healthy, the Heat will be tough to beat.

2.  Boston Celtics
Rather than re-build this off-season, the Celtics re-loaded.  Kevin Garnett was re-signed to a more team friendly deal to anchor the starting unit.  Once their defensive leader was back in the fold it enabled the team to build towards making another title run.  The departure of Ray Allen breaks up the vaunted big three, but Jason Terry takes his place on the roster and at this stage of their careers, he may be an even better fit.  He's more comfortable coming off the bench than Ray was and he can provide instant offense to a second unit that seemed incapable of scoring at times last season.  The Celtics defense reached nearly historic levels once Avery Bradley was inserted alongside the starters and he'll continue to help as one of the league's best young perimeter defenders once he returns from double shoulder surgery.  In the meantime the team can turn to Courtney Lee to fill that void.  The return of Jeff Green strengthens the second unit and will allow veterans Paul Pierce and KG to get some extra rest to keep them fresh for a lengthy playoff run.  Rookies don't often get much playing time for Doc Rivers, but Jared Sullinger may force the issue with his play, possibly even pushing for a spot as a starter by season's end.  He gives the team a post presence and some much needed rebounding, particularly on the offensive end where the Celtics were historically awful last season.  This will be the year that the veterans finally allow Rajon Rondo to take control of the team, which should help raise his game to even higher levels.  He's already showing more signs of being a more vocal leader so far, so if that translates into new found confidence in his game (especially his jump shot and free throws) he could be unstoppable.  This may be the deepest this roster has been in the KG era, making it an improvement over the squad that pushed Miami to 7 games in the Eastern Finals last year.  Health will always be a concern with a team that relies so heavily on veteran stars, but they at least now have a talented enough second unit to rely on that they can afford to give their aging stars more rest during the long regular season.  That may cost them some games in the standings, but if this roster can make it to the postseason at full strength, expect them to be battling the Heat in the Eastern Finals once again.

Things I Noticed: Week 7

Is it just me or does it seem like there have been a lot more tightly contested games this year?  11 of the 13 games this week were decided by one score, with many of them coming down to the wire.  Only one of the games can really be considered a blow out and it came in a game featuring two teams that were expected to be the AFC's best.

The league wants parody and that's what they currently have.  Only undefeated Atlanta has more than a 2 game lead in their division, but even the Falcons haven't been steamrolling opponents.  4 of their 6 wins have come in one score games.

The league still has it's fair share of awful teams to occupy the basement of each conference, but the top teams all have flaws.  There are no juggernauts like last year's Packers or the 2007 Patriots.  Atlanta and Houston are the top teams right now, but have they showed enough yet to make us confident that they'll stay at the top?

Bye Weeks: Atlanta, Denver, Kansas City, Miami, Philadelphia, San Diego

Here are some things I noticed this week

• The 49ers won a slugfest over Seattle to take sole possession of the top spot in the NFC West.  Two of the stingiest run defenses in the league each allowed an opposing RB to top 100 yards against them, with Frank Gore and Marshawn Lynch both bouncing back from sub par performances last week.
• San Francisco has rarely allowed an opposing RB to rush for over 100 yards against them at home in the Jim Harbaugh era, but have now allowed it to happen in two straight home games.
• The ending to the game turned out to be a little bizarre.  With Seattle trailing by 7, facing 4th down deep in their own territory with under a minute to play, Russell Wilson connected on a pass to Ben Obomanu right near the first down marker.  Officials marked the ball just short of the first down.  It was close, but on replay I think the ball got just far enough to get the first down, but it didn't matter because not only could they not have challenged the spot (that decision would have to come from the booth with under two minutes left), but a chop block penalty in the end zone resulted in a safety.  Now here is where it starts to get weird.  Harbaugh made the obvious decision to decline the penalty and take the turnover on downs instead.  After a kneel down, the game was over.  Yet the commentators on NFL network (not the best crew to begin with) seemed puzzled why the Niners weren't taking the safety.  Harbaugh was even questioned by the media about his decision after the game, as if it was a controversial choice.  It was the obvious choice!  Had they accepted the penalty they would have gotten the two points to make it a two possession game, but also would have forced Seattle to punt them the ball.  Too many things could go wrong in that situation - a fumbled punt return or a penalty that could give Seattle a first down, for instance.  Why risk it?
• Here's why.  The spread on this game was Niners by 7.5, so by declining the two point safety they didn't cover.  Think that maybe anyone that openly questioned Harbaugh's decision making may have wagered on this game?  It was a gambling disaster, but Harbaugh is trying to win the game.  He made the right choice.

The demise of the Yankees

The New York Yankees earned another trip to the postseason after finishing with the best record in the American League.  After squeezing by a scrappy Baltimore team, the Yankees went on to be swept by the Tigers in the ALCS.  Not only that, but they looked dreadful in doing so, crumbling before our eyes.

The Yankees hit a meager .188 as a team in the postseason.  The team with the second most runs scored in the AL, scoring just shy of 5 runs per game in the regular season, averaged less than half of that in their 9 postseason games.

Having by far the league's highest payroll amounted to nothing as their slumping stars faded away in October.  Robinson Cano may find himself in the MVP race for the regular season, but he had a postseason to forget.  His hit-less streak set a new MLB postseason record and he finished with only 3 hits in 40 at-bats.  He was hardly the only one that failed at the plate this month.

Robinson Cano: .075/.098/.125, 6 K's
Curtis Granderson: .100/.182/.200, 16 K's
Nick Swisher: .161/.235/.233, 10 K's
Russell Martin: .161/.235/.290, 5 K's

Things I Noticed: Week 6

Week 6 was filled with upsets as 9 underdogs pulled off victories.  In my Pick'em league I guessed the correct winner in only 5 of the 14 games, which was about average for the week.  So it's not just a matter of me being terrible at making picks (although that might be part of it).  Mostly it just goes to show that you never can know what to expect in the NFL, when any team can win on any given Sunday.  It's true, they made a movie about it once and everything.

Bye weeks: Chicago, New Orleans, Carolina, Jacksonville

Here are some things I noticed this week:

• Ben Rothlisberger threw for 363 yards to become the Steelers franchise leader in career passing yards, but the effort came in another disappointing road defeat.  Pittsburgh (2-3) has now lost all three of their road games this season, but this one against the lowly Titans was the worst of them.
• Steelers players are dropping like flies.  Rashard Mendenhall left after hurting his Achilles and Ike Redman injured his ankle.  The team only had 7 active offensive linemen for the game, but lost Maurkice Pouncey and Marcus Gilbert during the game.  If they lost any more linemen they would have been forced to use tight ends at the position instead. 
• The turning point in the game came when the Titans blocked a punt, recovering at the 1 yard line, to end the first quarter.  Two plays later they punched the ball into the end zone to take the lead.
• With just over a minute left, Pittsburgh drove to the edge of field goal range.  Looking to get a bit closer they ran the ball up the middle, but were stuffed for a loss of at least a yard.  That forced the Steelers into a long 54 yard field goal.  The kick was on target, but fell just short.  That extra yard may have made the difference.  That left the Titans with a short field and nearly a minute remaining, which proved to be just enough time for them to drive for their own game winning FG.

Things I Noticed: Week 5

In case you're wondering why everyone is wearing pink, it's not because the players all decided to become fair weather fans of their own teams.  The colors are to promote breast cancer awareness month, which is one of the things the NFL does for a great cause.  They will also auction off NFL gear to help raise money for this cause.

Bye Weeks: Dallas, Detroit, Oakland, Tampa Bay

Here are some things I noticed this week:

• Arizona lost for the first time this season in a game that exposed their offensive line as one of their biggest flaws.  Kevin Kolb was sacked 9 times and Ryan Williams averaged a mere 2.4 yards per carry behind a line that couldn't protect them. 
• Williams injured his shoulder in the game and will require season ending surgery.  He'll join Beanie Wells on the IR list, turning a bad backfield situation into a disaster for Arizona.
• The Rams (3-2) have a winning record for the first time since 2006 and already have surpassed their win total from last season.  Jeff Fisher has done a great job since taking over this young team by turning it around and making them competitive again.
• During the win, the Rams suffered a big loss with an injury to top WR Danny Amendola.  He missed almost all of last season with an elbow injury, worked hard to come back, only to be knocked out again with what looks to be a serious injury.  It's a tough blow for the Rams, who rely on Amendola to be their version of Wes Welker, and lack much WR depth behind him.

• Peyton Manning may be wearing a different uniform these days, but anytime he takes the field against Tom Brady, it's still a classic.  Despite a strong effort from Manning (345 yards, 3 TDs), who continues to look stronger with every passing week, it wasn't enough to overcome the Patriots in Foxboro.
• Denver scored the last 14 points of the game to make the Pats sweat out what was looking like a blow out.  Fourth quarter drives stalled for Denver when Willis McGahee dropped an open pass on 4th down on a play eerily similar to the infamous "4th and 2" play that still haunts New England fans from their 2006 playoff loss to Manning's Colts, then later lost a red zone fumble.
• The Riddler was on his way to another big day (career high 151 yards, 1 TD), but a 4th quarter fumble put Denver in position to get back in the game and may have put Ridley in the doghouse.  It's only his first lost fumble this year, but he does have a history of issues holding on to the ball and the Pats have no shortage of capable backs.
• Shane Vereen scored a short TD on his only carry of the game, while Bolden and Woodhead combined for over 100 yards.  Woodhead wouldn't be the ideal solution as a lead RB, but his conversion on 3rd and 17 was a key moment in the game.  It kept a drive alive that concluded with a TD to put the Pats up by 3 scores.
• The NFL has become a passing league, but the Patriots haven't forgotten the importance of keeping a balanced attack.  For the past several years their offense has been all about the pass, but their seasons have ended too often in heartbreaking losses when they weren't able to rely on their running game to help hold late game leads.  The Patriots rushed for over 200 yards in consecutive games for the first time in the Belichick era.  Tom Brady is still an elite QB capable of shredding defenses, but at age 35, he's going to need some help.  Forcing defenses to respect their running game also opens up play action passing, which is where Brady is at his best.

MLB Season Awards

Fans here in the Boston area may have been under the impression that baseball season ended months ago, when in fact the regular season just closed this week.  The cool chill of October brings with it the excitement of postseason baseball, but before we get there, let's take a look back on the season to predict some awards.

AL MVP:
1. Mike Trout (.326/.399/.564, 30 HR, 129 R, 83 RBI, 49 SB, 10.4 WAR)
2. Miguel Cabrera (.330/.393./.606, 44 HR, 109 R, 139 RBI, 4 SB, 7.2 WAR)
3. Robinson Cano (.313/.379/.550, 33 HR, 105 R, 94 RBI, 3 SB, 7.7 WAR)
4. Josh Hamilton (.285/.354/.577, 43 HR, 103 R, 128 RBI, 7 SB, 4.7 WAR)
5. Justin Verlander (17-8, 2.64 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 9.03 K/9, 6.8 WAR)

This came down to a tight race between the two top contenders, with a wide gap before the rest of the pack.  Earlier this week I outlined why the award should go to Trout, but Cabrera will get a lot of consideration for being the first Triple Crown winner since 1967.

Cano is easily the best player on the division winning Yankees.  His bat helps carry a potent, yet aging lineup and his defense has improved greatly over the years.  Hamilton put up big time power numbers for a playoff team, but his defensive value in CF has declined and he missed time with injury.  Reigning MVP Justin Verlander sneaks on the end of the ballot by remaining the most dominant starter in the game, despite regressing a bit from last year's outstanding season.

Who's the AL MVP?

This year's AL MVP award has essentially come down to a two man race.  On one side you have the first Triple Crown winner since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967.  On the other you have a rookie phenom that has electrified the league and established himself as the best all around player in the game at only 21 years young.

Compare the stat lines for Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout and you'll find they match up pretty evenly in a lot of categories.

Cabrera: .331 AVG/.394 OBP/.608 SLG, 109 Runs, 44 HR, 139 RBI, 4 SB, WAR 10.3
Trout:    .324 AVG/.397 OBP/.561 SLG, 129 Runs, 30 HR, 83 RBI, 49 SB, WAR 7.3

Their slash lines are very similar, with a slight edge to Cabrera.  Their spot in the lineup, with Trout being a lead off hitter and Cabrera typically in the three hole, factors in their differences in the runs scored and RBI categories.  Each leads the lead in their respective categories.  Cabrera has the edge in power while Trout has a dominant advantage on the base paths.

So who is our MVP?  They are both fantastic hitters, but also very different types of hitters.  Given their individual strengths, you could make a case for either one of them.

Things I Noticed: Week 4

The refs are back!!  After three embarrassing weeks that culminated with one of the biggest officiating travesties in recent memory, it's time to say good-bye to the replacement refs.   Sure, they were good for a few laughs and their incompetence led to more than a few hilarious Facebook posts and parody videos. Then again, they also brought up valid questions about the legitimacy of the league and severely damaged its integrity.   So, glad that's over with!

This week also starts the beginning of bye weeks, with Pittsburgh and Indianapolis getting a rest.

Here are some things I noticed this week:

• After the official word had gone out early Thursday morning that the referee lockout was being lifted, the league scrambled to get a crew of real officials in to Baltimore for the game that night. The officials were welcomed warmly with a standing ovation from fans that had become frustrated with their far from qualified replacements.  The returning heroes are sure to be showered with affection this week - at least until they make a mistake.  
• While we all seem to have learned a valuable lesson about how hard the officials job is and how under appreciated they were, it seems only a matter of time until we go back to complaining about every missed call or questionable decision.  
• If Baltimore is supposed to have this new and improved up tempo offense, why did they have so much trouble scoring against a Cleveland defense missing it's best player?  Joe Flacco was able to take advantage of a Joe Haden-less secondary, but it took them a while to get going.  A scoreless first quarter was concerning and Cleveland managed to hang around until a pick six late in the third quarter sealed the victory.