NBA Preview

There is no lockout this year keeping frustrated hoops fans waiting.  No compressed schedule, no teams frantically struggling to put their rosters and rotations together at the last minute.  The NBA season has returned in full force with a more traditional schedule that will start at the time we expect it.

After an off-season that saw several big name stars find new homes, the landscape of the league has been slightly altered.  With that in mind, let's take a look at the teams and predict how they will finish in their respective conferences.

Eastern Conference

1.  Miami Heat

The King finally got his ring - even if it did come in a shortened season.  The defending champs are the favorite to defend their throne at the top of the East.  LeBron James is still the league's best player and Miami's offense reached new levels when they went small ball with LeBron at power forward, moving Chris Bosh to center.  Neither star particularly likes playing out of position, but using that line-up removes the offensively inept Joel Anthony from the starting unit.  It took them a year to get it right, but LeBron and his side-kick D-Wade have figured out how to share the ball, making them the league's most dangerous tandem.  The Heat have knock down shooters for their stars to kick it back out to for open shots and have now added the league's all-time best 3-point shooter in Ray Allen.  The bench is still thin, but not as much so as in the previous two years.  An injury to any of their big three would still be devastating, but as long as they stay relatively healthy, the Heat will be tough to beat.

2.  Boston Celtics
Rather than re-build this off-season, the Celtics re-loaded.  Kevin Garnett was re-signed to a more team friendly deal to anchor the starting unit.  Once their defensive leader was back in the fold it enabled the team to build towards making another title run.  The departure of Ray Allen breaks up the vaunted big three, but Jason Terry takes his place on the roster and at this stage of their careers, he may be an even better fit.  He's more comfortable coming off the bench than Ray was and he can provide instant offense to a second unit that seemed incapable of scoring at times last season.  The Celtics defense reached nearly historic levels once Avery Bradley was inserted alongside the starters and he'll continue to help as one of the league's best young perimeter defenders once he returns from double shoulder surgery.  In the meantime the team can turn to Courtney Lee to fill that void.  The return of Jeff Green strengthens the second unit and will allow veterans Paul Pierce and KG to get some extra rest to keep them fresh for a lengthy playoff run.  Rookies don't often get much playing time for Doc Rivers, but Jared Sullinger may force the issue with his play, possibly even pushing for a spot as a starter by season's end.  He gives the team a post presence and some much needed rebounding, particularly on the offensive end where the Celtics were historically awful last season.  This will be the year that the veterans finally allow Rajon Rondo to take control of the team, which should help raise his game to even higher levels.  He's already showing more signs of being a more vocal leader so far, so if that translates into new found confidence in his game (especially his jump shot and free throws) he could be unstoppable.  This may be the deepest this roster has been in the KG era, making it an improvement over the squad that pushed Miami to 7 games in the Eastern Finals last year.  Health will always be a concern with a team that relies so heavily on veteran stars, but they at least now have a talented enough second unit to rely on that they can afford to give their aging stars more rest during the long regular season.  That may cost them some games in the standings, but if this roster can make it to the postseason at full strength, expect them to be battling the Heat in the Eastern Finals once again.

3.  Indiana Pacers
The Pacers had a breakout season with their young stars last year and will be looking to take it a step further this year.  A key for that to happen will be whether Paul George can blossom into a legitimate star to lead the team.  Danny Granger has been miscast as the star.  He can score and is a great shooter, but it's hard to see the Pacers going any further if he is their best player.  Granger and George also play the same position, which is why Granger's name will pop up in plenty of trade rumors this year.  Roy Hibbert gives them one of the league's best big men.  A frontcourt of Hibbert and David West will do damage on the offensive end, but they'll also have trouble stopping teams on the other end of the court.  Ian Mahinmi gives them a legitimate defensive minded back-up center, but they had to give up two productive players to trade for him, despite the fact that they could have signed him as a free agent without giving up anything. 

4. Brooklyn Nets

As they move into their new building, the Nets were desperate to make a splash with a win now mentality.  Adding Joe Johnson's All-Star talent will help them win games now, even if his contract does clog their cap space for the foreseeable future.  After hope of luring Dwight Howard to Brooklyn fell apart, the Nets turned to plan B.  Trading for Johnson and re-signing Gerald Wallace and Brooke Lopez may not have been the most financially responsible of moves in the long run, but it was enough to convince Deron Williams to stay.  The Nets have a talented (yet expensive) core that will be a big improvement over the bottom feeder they've been for the past few years.  Johnson alone adds several wins to the team, while a full season of Wallace helps as well.  Playing for a playoff team again should revitalize Williams and keep him fully engaged all season.  They will undoubtedly be one of the league's biggest rising teams this season, but will still fall short of making it past the second round of the playoffs.

5. Atlanta Hawks
While the Joe Johnson trade was a huge coup for Atlanta in terms of unloading the long term salary owed to their star, many expected them to fall out of playoff contention.  Not so fast.  With all the wheeling and dealing Atlanta did this off-season, they managed to bring in enough scoring from Lou Williams, Kyle Korver and Devin Harris to replace much of the scoring lost from Johnson's departure.  They should also get a full season of Al Horford, who missed most of least year with a torn pectoral muscle and still have the high flying Josh Smith capable of carrying the team.  Nobody in Atlanta will miss the old Iso-Joe sets and their offense could actually improve because of it.  They aren't likely to fall too far after all and have set themselves up nicely with lots of flexibility for the future.

6. New York Knicks
For all the big names on the roster, the Knicks are far from an elite contender.  It's hard to imagine Carmelo Anthony struggling as much as he did last season, especially now that he doesn't have to share the court with Jeremy Lin, but what do they expect to get out of Amare Stoudemire at this point?  Their best line-up would probably feature Melo at the power forward spot, where he could toast bigger forwards and is strong enough to defend them on the other end, but with the money they are paying STAT, it's unlikely they would relegate him to the bench.  Any team that is anchored by Tyson Chandler should easily finish in the top half of the league in defense, no matter how many liabilities he has to cover for.  Letting Lin leave deprives the Knicks of one of the few things that got their fan base excited last season.  Despite that he would have been a marketing gold mine for them, their logic was that the "poison pill" contract Houston offered him was too tough for them to swallow financially.  Fair enough.  Except they turned around and gave that money to the combination of Ray Felton, Jason Kidd and Marcus Camby (the latter pair would have been great 10 years ago - not so much now).  They are unlikely to combine to contribute as much as Lin did for them, yet cost just as much.  That's just like the Knicks.  One step forward, two steps back.

7. Philadelphia 76ers

I didn't like the way the 76ers off-season was going at all.  They amnestied Elton Brand (overpaid, but still one of their more productive players last year) and let Lou Williams walk away (led their team in scoring and PER last year) all so they could afford to overpay Nick Young.  Williams is a better player and is getting paid less to play for Atlanta instead.  Things turned around drastically when Andrew Bynum fell in their laps as part of the deal that sent Dwight Howard to the Lakers, but they had to give up their best player to do it.  Andre Iguadala had long been miscast as the team's primary scorer, but he is one of the league's best wing defenders and still provides a lot of value in several areas.  Bynum is still an upgrade, considering talented 7 footers don't exactly grow on trees, but after subtracting Iggy it doesn't upgrade the team that much.  Factor in their other head scratching moves and they essentially are treading water.  The hope is that with Iggy gone, Evan Turner can finally flourish and that Bynum will take another leap towards the leagues elite now that he is finally "The Man" on his own team, but neither of those are a given to actually happen.

8. Chicago Bulls
With a healthy Derrick Rose in the picture, the Bulls would be battling for the top spot in the conference, but the former MVP will miss most of the season while he recovers from a devastating knee injury.  Yes, they were still the top seed in the East last season, despite missing Rose for chunks of the season with various other injuries, but that was due mostly to their smothering defense.  While the defense should still be good, it was the second unit's dominance that helped make them the top team in defensive efficiency.  Unfortunately, that unit lost Omer Ashik and Ronnie Brewer this off-season, both of whom played key roles as defensive stoppers.  Healthier seasons from Joakim Noah and Luol Deng would help make up for some of the difference, but there is bound to be a drop off.  When Rose returns, even if he's not fully back to his old explosive self, he should be able to give them enough to push for one of the final playoff spots.  They probably don't pose much of a threat to the Heat, but if they can manage to move up a couple spots, they could be a dangerous team that those #2 and #3 seeds will dread having to face in the postseason.

9. Milwaukee Buck
Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis will form one of the best offensive backcourts in the league.  They'll have trouble with bigger guards on the defensive end, but adding Sam Dalembert to protect the rim will help.  Ersan Illyasova is one of the league's more underrated players.  They were the only non-playoff team last year in the East to have a positive point differential.  It wasn't by much (+0.3), but it was enough to consider they played better than their record indicated.  Add a full season with Ellis on board and the Bucks have a good chance at finishing over .500, which in the East may be just good enough for a playoff spot.

10. Cleavland Cavs

Kyrie Irving is one of the league's best young players.  In his sophomore season he could make the jump to being one of the best 15 players in the entire league.  The Cavs also filled two big needs in the draft by drafting scoring guard Dion Waters and shot blocking big man Tyler Zeller.  Anderson Varejao needs to stay healthy, but he's a rebounding machine that makes the kind of hustle plays that any team would be envious to have.  They may not be ready for the postseason stage yet, but they are making strides to recover in the post-Lebron era.

11. Washington Wizards
While they've done a good job of cleaning house the past couple of years by unloading the knuckleheads that were dragging the team down (Arenas, Blatche, Young, McGee), they also blew up their cap space for the near future by trading for two overpriced veterans - Okafor and Ariza.  Rashard Lewis was owed almost half ($13 million) of the amount they will now have to pay the combination of those two ($22 million).  It makes them only slightly better now, while crippling them financially in the long run.  John Wall will miss at least the first month of the season and when he does return, he still needs to prove he can mesh with their other young players and become the elite point guard he was expected to be.

12. Detroit Pistons
Greg Monroe is quickly emerging as one of the league's best young big men, but outside of that the Pistons don't have much.  Trading the two years remaining on Ben Gordon's contract for one year of Corey Maggette (and a potential mid-season trade chip) helps clean up the mess their cap room had become, but it cost them a (protected) future first round pick to do it.  The rebuilding continues and it could still be a few years before things get turned around.

13. Toronto Raptors
Jonas Valanciunas finally joins the team.  The Raptors drafted him in the first round a couple of years ago, but he spent last year still in Europe.  The big man should offer solid rebounding and shot blocking, which compliments well with Andrea Bargnani's skill set.  He will allow for Bargnani to move to a forward spot, where his defense and lack of rebounding will be less of an issue.

14. Orlando Magic
Dwight Howard is gone and not much is left in his place.  Aaron Afflalo and Al Harrington are nice complimentary pieces, but neither is capable of carrying the scoring load.  Worse is on the defensive end, where Howard used to cover for a roster full of defensive liabilities.  Without him protecting the rim, those players will now all be exposed.  Ryan Anderson, their second best player last year, was allowed to walk away as well.  It could get ugly in Orlando this year, so don't be surprised to find them openly tanking late in the season.

15. Charlotte Bobcats
Last year's Bobcats may have been the worst team ever.  Their offensive efficiency (92.3) was by far the worst in the league and they weren't any better at the other end of the floor, where their defensive efficiency was also dead last (107.8).  Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will be an exciting rookie that can do a lot of things well, but being the team's go to scorer won't be one of them.  At least he'll make it so they are no longer unbearable to watch.

Western Conference

1. Oklahoma City Thunder

This young Thunder team could be in the beginning of a mini-dynasty.  With Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka all locked up for the long term, they just need to figure out how to do the same with James Harden to secure their spot as contenders in the West for the foreseeable future.  Reaching an extension with the reigning sixth man of the year won't be easy, even though he does want to stay, due to the harsh luxury tax penalties they would be forced to pay in future years.  That could be a problem for this small market team, but for the chance at being perennial contenders, they have to take that risk.  In any case, Harden is still in OKC for now, helping to make the Thunder the team to beat out West.

2. San Antonio Spurs
People want to keep counting them out due to their aging core of Duncan, Ginobili and Parker, but that would be a mistake.  The Spurs quietly revamped their roster last season and surprised many by leading the league in offensive efficiency (108.5).  They are deep enough that they don't need to push their veterans too much and Greg Popovich is the master of picking his spots to limit minutes for his stars or even give them games off to rest.  Young players like Kawhi Leonard and Tiago Splitter continue to develop, improving their depth and taking pressure off the team's stars.

3. LA Lakers

The lure of sunshine and Hollywood makes it easy for the Lakers to attract star talent, so it's no surprise that they managed to make a big splash this summer.  The additions of Dwight Howard and Steve Nash provide a lot of star power to a roster that already has All-Star talent in Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol.  That big four rivals any in the league.  There are certainly concerns - Kobe and Nash are getting older and bound to decline at some point.  Kobe has never really played with a point guard that handles the ball as much as Nash, so one of them will need to change their style of play to adapt to each other.  It could take some time for this squad to develop chemistry, as was the case for Miami a couple seasons ago.  There are also some questions about Howard's health, as he recently returned from his recovery from off-season back surgery that shut him down to end last season.  Those are all reason not to expect the Lakers to dominate the regular season, but come playoff time they may have put it all together.  Then, watch out Western Conference!

4. Denver Nuggets
The hyper active Nuggets played at the league's second fastest pace last season and are loaded with young, athletic types that can handle the warp speed game.  That style also works to their advantage at home, where opponents not used to the thin air in Denver often have trouble keeping up.  This off-season they unloaded two over-priced contracts to acquire Andre Iguodala.  The bad news is that they helped the Lakers get Howard in the process, but they couldn't resist the chance to upgrade their own roster without having to give up much.  Iggy is a great fit for this team, while giving them a top notch perimeter defender.  They are deep with scoring options like Danillo Gallinari and playmakers like Ty Lawson, which will allow Iggy to play his game and not have to worry about being the go to guy like he too often was in Philly.  Their lack of a true star player holds them back just beneath the top star studded teams out West, but they should still finish near the top of the conference.

5. LA Clippers

They have the best point guard on the planet in Chris Paul and perhaps the most exciting player in Blake Griffin.  There is a lot to like about this team with just that, but the roster beyond that isn't too shabby either.  Better health from Eric Beldsoe and Chauncey Billups will improve their backcourt dramatically and make up for the loss of Mo Williams, who was traded in the deal that sent Lamar Odom back to LA.  After a miserable season last year where Odom pouted his way through most of the year in Dallas, the return to LA should rejuvenate him and give the Clippers some much needed frontcourt depth.  They have talent, but are also still owned by Donald Sterling and coached by Vinny Del Negro, so their ceiling is limited.

6. Memphis Grizzlies
They were a sleeper team to be a contender last year, coming off a season where they came up one game shy of the Western Finals in 2011, despite missing their leading scorer.  Rudy Gay returned last year, but Zach Randolph missed a large chunk of the season and was limited by his knee after his return.  Z-Bo needs to regain his old form in order for the Grizzlies to go any further.  When healthy, he and Marc Gasol team to make one of the most formidable frontlines in the league.

7. Utah Jazz
The Jazz could be a real wild card because we don't know what they'll do near the trade deadline.  Al Jefferson and Paul Milsap are on expiring contracts and could be used as trade bait as they continue to add for a future revolving around their young core of Derrick Favors, Gordon Hayward, Alec Burks and Enes Kanter.  Or they could package some of their young assets for another veteran that could launch them even higher in the standings.  Utah isn't exactly a top free agent destination, so creating cap space by letting the veterans go may not prove all that useful, but if they want to get creative and make some deals, they have plenty of chips to do it with.

8. Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves would be an easy pick for one of the last few playoff spots out West if they were healthy, but they aren't off to a great start in that regard.  It was bad enough that Ricky Rubio is expected to miss the first couple months of the season, but now Kevin Love is out for at least a month.  Those two are the building blocks of this franchise, so without them they are bound to get off to a rough start.  That could end up costing them a spot in the postseason, but once their young stars return, expect them to get back on track and push hard for that final spot.

9. Dallas Mavericks
After winning the title two years ago, the Mavs essentially passed on their chance to defend their throne when they let Tyson Chandler walk away.  The decision was a bold move designed to set themselves up to be players in the free agent market this past summer, with the idea of bringing in Deron Williams and/or Dwight Howard.  They came close to getting Williams, but he ultimately decided to stay in Brooklyn.  The plan didn't work, but it was still worth the risk.  Plan B ended up being several under the radar moves that still improved the team.  They signed Chris Kaman and OJ Mayo to reasonable short term deals, got Elton Brand cheap ($2.1 million) in the amnesty auction and essentially stole Darren Collison and Dahanty Jones from Indiana for Ian Mahinmi, who they were prepared to let walk away as a free agent anyway.  These moves improve their roster in the short term while allowing for flexibility with their long term payroll.  They should contend for a bottom playoff spot, but the loss of Dirk for the first month or so as he recovers from knee surgery could put them in an early hole that they can't dig out of.

10. Golden State Warriors
They are a popular sleeper team out west to potentially make a playoff push.  Injuries in Minnesota and Dallas could help that cause, but aside from that, I don't see them making it.  They have their own injury concerns with Andrew Bogut, plus they can never trust the health of Stephen Curry and his paper mache ankles.  When those two manage to stay on the court, they form a nice core to go along with intriguing youngsters like Klay Thompson and rookie Harrison Barnes, but even with improved health they are still a year or two away from being a contender in a loaded Western Conference.

11. Portland Trail Blazers
The Greg Oden-Brandon Roy era is over and now it's up to LaMarcus Aldridge and Nic Batum to carry the team through their rebuilding stage.  Rookie Damian Lillard is gaining hype, but rookie point guards often struggle in this league and there are questions about him due to the lack of competition he faced in college.  Beyond that, the Blazers don't have much proven depth.  It's a start, but they still have a long way to go.

12. New Orleans Hornets

After hitting the lottery, the Hornets added Anthony Davis and Austin Rivers in the draft.  Davis is still raw on the offensive end, but should be an immediate contributor on the boards and blocking shots, while Rivers gives them some needed scoring.  The addition of Ryan Anderson gives them one of the league's best floor stretching big men, but he and Davis play the same position.  They can try moving one of them to center to put their best big men on the floor together, but that could be costly defensively against certain teams with legitimate centers.  Their success also comes down to the health of Eric Gordon.  He was the centerpiece of the deal that sent CP3 to LA, but played in only 9 games last season and his knee is still bothering him.  He's an explosive scorer when he's on the court, but how often he is able to be out there remains to be seen.

13. Sacramento Kings
The Kings are a talented but dysfunctional young team.  DeMarcus Cousins has the talent to be a dominant big man if he can keep his head screwed on straight.  Tyreke Evans has regressed since his promising rookie season and the team still can't figure out what position he should play.  Isiah Thomas blossomed once he was moved to the starting lineup and should continue to develop in that role.  They should be a team on the rise, but we have to see some consistency from them first.

14. Houston Rockets
The Rockets have been stockpiling assets trying to put together a package for a legitimate super star to lead them every since Yao Ming was forced to retire, but they've struck out in their attempts to land Gasol, Bosh and Howard in recent years.  That leaves them with a lot of young, talented depth, but no real stars to build around.  Jeremy Lin comes in with big name appeal thanks to his (small sample size) flashes of brilliance in New York, but it remains to be seen if he can even outproduce Goran Dragic or Kyle Lowry, the two point guards they let go in order to bring in Lin.  They used another heavily back-loaded "poison pill" contract to steal Omer Asik away from Chicago, but with that contract it may do more to hurt the Bulls then it does to help Houston.  For now the Rockets are floating in limbo, but expect GM Daryl Morey to keep his eyes peeled for the next blockbuster deal to come along.

15. Phoenix Suns
They made a push last season that fell short of a playoff spot, but the fact that they were even in the race is a credit to Steve Nash's brilliance.  Now that he has been set free to chase a title, the Suns aren't left with much.  Goran Drogic is a nice enough player to take over the offense, but he's no Steve Nash.  They new they would be forced to rebuild in the wake of losing their super star point guard, but this could be painful for a few years.