Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Things I Noticed: Week 6

Week 6 was filled with upsets as 9 underdogs pulled off victories.  In my Pick'em league I guessed the correct winner in only 5 of the 14 games, which was about average for the week.  So it's not just a matter of me being terrible at making picks (although that might be part of it).  Mostly it just goes to show that you never can know what to expect in the NFL, when any team can win on any given Sunday.  It's true, they made a movie about it once and everything.

Bye weeks: Chicago, New Orleans, Carolina, Jacksonville

Here are some things I noticed this week:
  • Ben Rothlisberger threw for 363 yards to become the Steelers franchise leader in career passing yards, but the effort came in another disappointing road defeat.  Pittsburgh (2-3) has now lost all three of their road games this season, but this one against the lowly Titans was the worst of them.
  • Steelers players are dropping like flies.  Rashard Mendenhall left after hurting his Achilles and Ike Redman injured his ankle.  The team only had 7 active offensive linemen for the game, but lost Maurkice Pouncey and Marcus Gilbert during the game.  If they lost any more linemen they would have been forced to use tight ends at the position instead. 
  • The turning point in the game came when the Titans blocked a punt, recovering at the 1 yard line, to end the first quarter.  Two plays later they punched the ball into the end zone to take the lead.
  • With just over a minute left, Pittsburgh drove to the edge of field goal range.  Looking to get a bit closer they ran the ball up the middle, but were stuffed for a loss of at least a yard.  That forced the Steelers into a long 54 yard field goal.  The kick was on target, but fell just short.  That extra yard may have made the difference.  That left the Titans with a short field and nearly a minute remaining, which proved to be just enough time for them to drive for their own game winning FG.
  • In a battle between the league's top ranked offense and the league's top defense, it was defense that prevailed.  Seattle edged out New England thanks to a last minute 46 yard TD pass from Russell Wilson to Sidney Rice.
    • New England was missing both of it's starting safeties at this point in the game, replacing them with a couple of rookies, making it easier for Rice to toast the secondary for the wide open score.
  • Seattle has played mostly conservative on offense with their rookie QB, but with the Pats defense able to shut down Marshawn Lynch, Wilson was unleashed.  He 293 yards and 3 TDs were both career highs and he was allowed to take more risky down field passes than he has in previous games.  The Patriots clearly weren't prepared for this and Wilson was able to take advantage.
  • Two intentional grounding penalties doomed the Patriots.  The first came at the end of the first half. The Patriots made the risky choice to try to squeeze in an extra play to try for the TD, but a pressured Brady threw the ball out of the back of the end zone.  I've never seen that call made when the ball is thrown out of the end zone like that, but I checked the rule and apparently that's the correct call, as long as Brady was still in the pocket when he threw, which he was.  The penalty resulted in a 10 second run off of the clock, which ended the half without giving the Pats the chance to take the FG.  That of course would end up being the difference in the game.  Late in the fourth quarter, with the Patriots trying to run out the clock, another intentional grounding call stalled their drive, helping to give Seattle time for a comeback.
  • The Patriots (3-3) are starting to make the Red Sox look good!  Ok, maybe it's not that bad, but another heartbreaking loss has this fan base frustrated.  Keeping things in perspective, New England has three losses this season for a total of four points and their +51 point differential trails only Houston in the AFC.  So it's not like they are getting dismantled in their losses, but there are some legitimate concerns about their late game execution.  The defense can't hold a 4th quarter lead and the offense seems incapable of moving the chains to chew up the clock late games.  It cost them the Super Bowl last year and all three of their losses this year have come when the opponent scored late after the Pats offense failed to run out the clock when they had the chance.
    • A big part of their issues late in games is due to trouble running the ball.  Stevan Ridley came into the week 5th in the league in rushing, but Seattle's stout defense held him to only 34 yards on 2.1 yards per carry.  In a game that they led nearly the entire way, Brady should not have to throw the ball a career high 58 times, but the ineffectiveness of the running game left them little choice.
  • With that all being said, here is a message for Seattle CB Richard Sherman.  Shut up.  Seriously, just stop talking, because you're embarrassing yourself.  Your team played a great game and your defense helped contain the league's best offense.  So congrats for that.  But talking trash in the aftermath of a game that your team barely pulled out a win in is juvenile behavior.  "Gimmick offense?"  Please.  The no-huddle isn't just some cheap trick.  The Seahawks found a way to help neutralize it's effectiveness in the second half, but it's not like they shut Brady down.  Tweeting comments and photos about how you got in Brady's face after the game to gloat makes you look like a fool.  Show some class.  Brady is a 3 time Super Bowl champion and future Hall of Famer and has a super model for a wife.  You're not even close to his level, so do you really think he's bothered by anything you have to say?  If anything, all you've accomplished it providing the Patriots with more bulletin board material to motivate them in the coming weeks - as if they needed more.   
  • Matt Ryan was expected to feast on Oakland's porous defense, but instead ended up having his worst game of the season.  Despite throwing three picks, he did manage to lead the team into range for a game winning 55 yard FG to keep Atlanta undefeated.
  • Oakland thought they had completed a successful comeback to at least force overtime when Darren McFadden scored with 40 seconds left, but apparently that's too much time to leave this Falcons offense.  
  • Cleveland got their first win of the season, snapping an 11 game losing streak that dates back to last season.  Rookie QB Brandon Weeden celebrated his 29th birthday by leading the upset over the Bengals.  I'm not sure which part of that sounds stranger, but it's true - the 29 year old is actually a rookie and anytime the Browns beat anyone we have to consider it an upset.
  • The other rookie for the Browns had a less successful day after an early exit with an injury to his ribs.  Trent Richardson says he will be fine and ready for next week.  For the Browns sake, let's hope so.
  • Andy Dalton had a successful rookie season last year when he led the Bengals to an unlikely postseason appearance, but it hasn't been as easy this year.  He piled up a lot of yardage in a late comeback attempt, but his three INTs, including a pick-six, buried them too deep.
    • While the Bengals haven't seen quite as much success so far in Dalton's sophomore campaign, AJ Green has built on his impressive rookie year to become one of the league's best receivers in only his second year.  He had another huge week (135 yards, 2 TDs), despite the return of Joe Haden, Cleveland's shut down corner.
  • Despite a sloppy performance in which they gained only 192 total yards in the game, Miami fended off the Rams for their third win of the season.  Miami's defense is surrendering only 19.5 points per game, which is second best in the AFC and 9th overall. 
    • The NFC defenses are dominating the points per game category, with St. Louis (5th - 18.5 per game) being one of those teams.  In fact, four of the top five defenses based on points per game come from the NFC West.
  • Rams rookie kicker Greg Zuerlein was perfect through the first 5 games, but missed three of his attempts in the loss this week.  Ok, so he can be forgiven for missing the 66 yard kick on the game's final play since it easily would have been an NFL record (although it had plenty of distance, just missing wide), but the attempts from 52 and 37 yards have been pretty much automatic for him. Coach Jeff Fisher said after the game that he liked the rookie's chances of making that long kick better than their chances had they kept the offense on the field on 4th down.  That's how good this kid's leg is.
  • Shonn Greene has been quiet this season, but finally broke through against an undersized Colts defense with 161 rushing yards and 3 TDs.  It doesn't matter who the Jets use at QB when they have a back running over teams like that.
  • The Jets defense isn't nearly as intimidating without Revis on the field, but they handled Andrew Luck just fine without him.  The rookie turned the ball over three times and managed to lead drives leading only to a trio of field goals as the Colts were blown out.  Following an emotional win last week against the Packers, the Colts looked out of fuel this week.
  • Tim Tebow helped keep a scoring drive alive at the end of the first half.  Lining up as the punt protector on 4th and 11, Tebow took a direct snap and threw a 22 yard lob pass for the first down. He would also pick up another first down on the drive with his legs to help the Jets take a commanding lead at the half.
  • The Eagles thought that blowing 4th quarter leads was a problem they left behind them last season, but for the second week in a row those issues came back to haunt them.  Philadelphia blew a 10 point lead and went on to lose to the Lions in OT.
    • The Eagles appeared to be well in control when a 70 yard strike from Michael Vick to Jeremy Maclin put them up by 10 with just over 5 minutes remaining, but the Lions rallied back with a quick TD, followed by the game tying FG with only seconds remaining.
  • Vick threw 2 INTs and had a botched snap that led to a fumble.  The Eagles now have 17 turnovers, including 13 by Vick.  He showed his tantalizing ability with 311 yards, 2 TDs and chipping in 59 rushing yards, but if he keeps piling up turnovers, the Eagles will need to seriously consider if they can contend with Vick leading the offense.  If the Eagles keep him past this season then it will be expensive.  Would they really be willing to pay him close to $48 million over the next three years if he isn't able to lead them to the postseason?
  • The Lions may have saved their season with a win this week.  Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson continue to connect for impressive yardage performances, but have still yet to connect in the end zone.  Calvin's only TD of the year came when Shaun Hill replaced the injured Stafford at the end of the game against the Titans.  That's bound to change at some point.  He's just too talented of a receiver to not find pay dirt sooner or later.  It's not like Stafford isn't looking for him near the goal line.  He did throw him a TD pass this week that was called back for a penalty. 
  • Jamaal Charles entered the week as the league's leading rusher, but found no room to run against the Bucs.  It didn't help that having Brady Quinn take over for the injured Matt Cassel meant the defense stacking the box against him.  He managed 40 yards for the game thanks to one 22 yard burst.  Take that away and he averaged only 1.6 yards on his other carries.
  • Chiefs fans were fed up with the turnover prone Cassel, but Quinn doesn't give them an upgrade by any means.  He turned the ball over twice despite running a very conservative offense.  None of his completions gained 20+ yards, with many of them going for little or no gain.  At least Cassel can be counted on to pile up meaningless stats in garbage time, but Quinn couldn't even manage that.
  • Ronde Barber made a great play to take an INT back 78 yards for a score.  The pass was dropped by Dexter McCluster, who lost control as he rolled to the ground with the ball.  Replays confirmed that the ball hit a defenders arm as it slipped out of McCluster's hands, never hitting the ground, before Barber scooped it up and took off with it.  Smart play and tremendous awareness by Barber.
  • Tampa has been waiting a long time to see Josh Freeman perform like this again.  He followed a promising rookie season with a miserable year and has been inconsistent so far this year.  Perhaps a 328 yard, 3 TD performance will get him going.  He's finally connecting with Mike Williams (113, 1 TD) again like they did as rookies and the addition of Vincent Jackson (66 yards, 2 TDs) gives him two receives he can rely on.
  • In the most bizarre play of the game, the Chiefs blocked a punt, sending the ball bouncing into the end zone.  The punter recovered, but instead of staying down or running out of the back of the end zone to concede a safety, he tried tossing the ball forward.  The ball was easily intercepted by a defender, who easily waltzed in for the TD.  They led 21-3 at the time, so giving up 2 points on a safety would be no big deal and they would then get the chance to punt again without the defense bearing down on them to attempt another block.  Instead, the bonehead play nearly allowed the Chiefs to get back into the game.
  • Jacoby Jones tied an NFL record with an 108 yard kick return for a score that would help the Ravens hold off the Cowboys.  Considering their defense lost Ladarious Webb, Ray Lewis and Jimmy Smith to injury during the game, they needed all the help they could get from their special teams.
    • Baltimore may be 5-1 at the moment, but they've pulled out several close victories due to a fair amount of luck (some dubious replacement official calls and a kick that may or may not have gone over the goal post on the game winning kick against the Pats as well as the drop by Dez on the two point conversion this week).  Now that Webb (torn ACL) and Lewis (torn triceps) are out for the season, the defense has taken a devastating hit.  The Ravens playoff hopes rest on the shoulders of Joe Flacco.  Good luck with that!
  • The loss of Ray Lewis for the season hurts the Ravens not just on the field, but off it.  He is their emotional leader and a mentor to many young players.  For the 37 year old linebacker, this injury could be career ending.  I have a feeling that Lewis will fight to get back on the field next season, having far too much pride to let an injury force him into retirement, but the end is near for his impressive career.  This season is certainly over for him and losing him may have murdered the Ravens title chances (what, too soon?).
  • The perplexing Dez Bryant continues to frustrate his team.  Despite another big game (13 catches, 95 yards, 2 TDs), including a TD in the final minute of the game, Bryant dropped the two point conversion that would have tied the game.  The ball went right through his hands and is a pass a receiver with his ability absolutely needs to make in that situation.  It seems like every time he has a big game this season he spoils it with miscues that cost his team.
    • At least the Cowboys can't hang this loss on Tony Romo for once.  He put the ball where it needed to be and should be getting credit for a clutch comeback performance right now. Instead it ends up as another loss.
  • Dallas would recover an on-side kick following the failed 2 point conversion to give themselves another shot, but Dan Bailey's 51 yard FG attempt sailed wide left.  Clock management was a factor for the Cowboys at the end of the game (big surprise!).  After Romo completed a 1 yard pass to Bryant (who failed to get out of bounds) they waited until the clock ran down to 6 seconds before using their last time out to set up the FG attempt.  They should have had plenty of time to run one more play to try to get closer.  They could have used the time out earlier or spiked the ball after the catch by Dez to preserve the time out and expand their options for the next play.  Maybe they thought running another play was too risky and felt that they liked their chances with the long field goal, but the decision didn't work out for them.
  • DeMarco Murray left the game with a strained foot.  He at least attempted to come back into the game, which hopefully is a sign that he won't miss much more time.
  • After starting out a scorching 4-0 this season, the Cardinals have dropped two straight, snapping an 8 game home winning streak in the process.  Their season got started when Kevin Kolb took over for an injured John Skelton in Week 1 and rallied the Cardinals to victory.  This time it was Skelton taking over for the injured Kolb, but when the roles were reversed, so was the outcome. Skelton's INT halted their comeback as Arizona fell to the Bills.
    • Jay Feely tied the game with a 61 yard FG late in the 4th quarter, but missed the game winning 38 yard attempt at the end of regulation (it looked like it may have been partially blocked).  The Bills would win in OT following the Skelton turnover.
  • Buffalo's revamped pass defense has been often criticized for their underwhelming performance so far this season, but they showed up this week with 5 sacks, including two by Mario Williams.  Perhaps this is a sign of things coming together for this defense, but more likely it's just another example of the offensive line issues that I've pointed out for Arizona over the past couple of weeks.
  • The 49ers failed in their attempt to avenge last year's frustrating playoff loss to the Giants, but this time they can't blame fumbled kick returns.  It was QB Alex Smith turning the ball over this time with 3 INTs.  Smith entered the week as the league leader in passer rating, but recorded only a 43.1 rating this week, dropping him out of the top 5.
  • The 49ers defense never gives up 100 yard performances or TDs to opposing RBs, especially at home, but nobody told Ahmed Bradshaw that as he carried last weeks momentum to a 116 yard, 1 TD performance.  He's only the second rusher to eclipse the 100 yard mark against the Niners defense in the past 44 games!
  • RG3 was questionable to be available this week due to a concussion suffered in their last game, but he sure didn't play like someone with a head injury.  Any ideas about protecting their rookie QB by limiting his designed runs, thus limiting the contact he takes, went out the window when he scrambled for a career high 138 yards, including a head first dive into the end zone that threw caution to the wind.  He also put the game away with a brilliant 76 yard TD run late in the game.
  • The Vikings jumped out to an early lead with three scoring drives in the first quarter, but failed to put the Redskins away by settling for short field goals on each of those drives.  They struggled in the red zone early in the game in part due to a lack of reliable targets near the goal line.  Percy Harvin is their best playmaker and receiver, but he's not a big target so it's hard to get him the ball in the end zone unless they get creative.  Unless Adrian Peterson is able to punch it past the goal line on the ground, the Vikings best option in that area is emerging TE Kyle Rudolph, who scored in the 4th quarter.
  • Aaron Rodgers has a message for everyone that wondered what happened to the Packers prolific offense.  "Shhhhhh."  Rodgers silenced his critics by toasting the Texans defense for 338 yards and a career high 6 TDs under the bright lights on Sunday night.
    • Jordy Nelson was a huge beneficiary of Rodgers offensive explosion, collecting 9 catches for 121 yards and 3 TDs.  James Jones added a pair of TDs as well and now has scored twice in each of the past three weeks to bring his season total to a league leading 7 TDs. 
  • It was expected that the Texans would miss defensive leader Brian Cushing, the star linebacker that the team put on IR last week after he tore a knee ligament, but they never expected to get blown out like this, especially at home. 
    • JJ Watt took over the league lead in sacks by adding two more to his season total to pass Clay Matthews, who was held without a sack in this game.  At least the Texans still have Watt to pressure opposing QBs and knock down passes, so let downs like this are likely an aberration.
  • The previously undefeated Texans had been winning with defense and an unstoppable rushing attack, but neither were working for them this week.  Arian Foster salvaged his day with 2 TDs, but his 1.7 yards per carry is an effort he'd like to forget.
  • San Diego was well on it's way to dismantling the Broncos when they took a 24-0 lead at halftime. Denver fumbled twice on special teams and had an INT returned for a TD against them to dig themselves into an early hole. Then Manning happened. Maybe he's not the same guy he was a few years ago, but in the second half of this game he sure looked like it as he rallied the Broncos to 35 unanswered second half points to stun the Chargers. Manning threw 3 TDs to help lead the comeback, while the defense chipped in by scoring twice as well, including the game sealing pick-six with just over 2 minutes to go in the game. The victory puts Denver in the drivers seat in the race for the division title, which will undoubtedly come down to these two teams.
  • San Diego could easily be 5-1 and running away with the division, but they've now blown two straight games in which they led by double digits in the second half.  Costly mistakes sabotaged their lead.  Philip Rivers had six turnovers (4 INTs, 2 fumbles), two of which were returned for scores in the second half.  As impressive as Manning was in leading the comeback, Rivers essentially handed him the chance on a silver platter.
  • All four of the AFC East teams are tied at 3-3.  The Patriots are the most talented team in the division by far and look to be the only legitimate contender, but their late game execution has led to a few losses that have opened the door for another team to overtake their decade-plus reign.  New England will need to take care of business when it faces it's divisional foes if they expect to make it back to the postseason. 
    • Perhaps a Super Bowl hangover is responsible for the Patriots sluggish start to the season.  There is a long history of teams that lose the Super Bowl going on to struggle in the next season.  It happened to the Patriots in 2008 when they missed the playoffs, but that had more to do with Brady missing the season.  Since 1995, the Super Bowl runner up has failed to make it past the divisional round of the postseason the following year and 8 of those teams failed to even make the playoffs.  Will the Pats fall victim to the dreaded Super Bowl curse?
  • Despite having the week off, Chicago leads the NFC North and has a comfortable league lead in point differential (+78).  With the league's most dominant defense and plenty of suitable weapons for Jay Cutler to work with, the Bears are going to be dangerous.  There are a lot of contenders in the NFC, with Atlanta being the last unbeaten team in the league, but Chicago's victories have all been a lot more dominant than the Falcons wins.  It's not a stretch to consider the Bears the top team in the NFL right now.

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