King's ransom paid to a Prince

The Detroit Tigers shocked the baseball world by making a surprise winning bid for free agent slugger Prince Fielder.  The former Brewer agreed to a 9 year, $214 million deal to join the team that his father once played for.  The signing comes on the heels of the devastating news that Victor Martinez had blown out his knee during off season workouts and would be lost for the entire season.  As recently as last week, Detroit GM David Dombrowski claimed the team would not overreact to the loss of Martinez by splurging on a big name like Fielder.  Maybe that was all a smoke screen to hide their true intentions, or perhaps their owner, 82 year old Mike Illitch, rolled out of bed one morning and decided he was intent on seeing his team win now at any cost.

One thing is for certain, this move comes with a hefty cost.  Fielder's deal is the fourth largest contract ever.  Of the larger contracts in league history, two of them belong to Alex Rodriguez and the other is the one Albert Pujols recently received to join the Angels.  Fielder may be one of the game's best power hitting sluggers, but he's not on the same level as those two, who have already paved their way to the Hall of Fame.  Fielder has put up some staggering numbers already in his career, but he's still got a long way to go before being considered a lock for Cooperstown.

Speaking of Fielder's numbers, let's take a moment to reflect on how great they have been.  In just over 6 seasons in the majors, Fielder has already swatted 230 Home Runs, putting him on a pace that should put him in the 500 career HR territory by the end of this contract.  He has a career slash line of .282 AVG/.390 OBP/.540 Slugging/.930 OPS, with his most recent season being well above those numbers in each category.  He's also averaged well over 100 RBIs per season in his career, making him one of the top run producers in the game.

Fielder will team in Detroit with Miguel Cabrera to form what should be the best 3-4 combination in the league.  They are both elite hitters that can hit for average and power that bat from opposite sides of the plate, creating a match up nightmare for opponents.  The league hasn't seen a lefty/righty combination anchoring a lineup this dynamic since the prime years of Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz in Boston.  The duo should be even more formidable then the one Prince left in Milwaukee with reigning NL MVP Ryan Bruan.  There's no doubt that Fielder's presence will boost the Tigers offense, create more runs for the team, and add an additional few wins to their record, even after factoring in the loss of Martinez.

The deal does present several issues though that make this a risky proposition for the Tigers.  For starters, there's the length of the deal.  9 years is a lot to invest in a player, especially given the amount of money tied to it.  While Fielder is only 27 years old, he doesn't have the physique of a player that will age well.  He's listed at 275 pounds, but likely weighs more than that.  For comparison's sake, his father Cecil declined rapidly in his early 30's and retired at the age of 34.  Fielder weighs even more than his father did and this contract will take him through his age 36 season.  There aren't many examples of hitters of his size aging gracefully, indicating that he's unlikely to hold his value through the last several years of this deal.  One factor Fielder does have in his favor to contradict this theory is his impressive durability.  He's played in at least 157 games in each full season of his career.  It's not clear if he will be able to maintain the kind of endurance required to keep up that pace as he ages, but the move to the AL at least presents the opportunity to allow him to DH, which should prolong his effectiveness at the plate.

That leads us to another issue with this signing.  Fielder plays the same position as Detroit's established slugging first baseman, Cabrera.  One of them will likely need to DH, allowing the pair to take turns switching between the two spots to give them each some added rest to help keep them healthy through the long season.  While each of them are poor defensive fielders, neither is likely to be happy about a full time switch to DH, so the Tigers will need to handle this carefully. 

Of course that issue becomes even more problematic in 2013 when Victor Martinez will presumably return healthy and in need of at bats.  V-Mart's days of catching on an every day basis are well behind him, so the team will be forced to find ways to fit their three best hitters into two 1B/DH spots.  While you can reason that Fielder essentially takes the place of Martinez for this season, he doesn't appear to be a fit in the long term because of the logjam at the position.  Perhaps they expect Martinez to get enough appearances behind the plate once he returns to be able to make it work, but with his defensive skills already in sharp decline prior to a major knee injury, that doesn't seem to be the wisest choice.  Coming off a serious injury, his trade value will be diminished.  When you also factor in the $25 million still owed to him in the last two years of his contract, plus the fact that he's now primarily a DH, he'd be difficult to move for anything of value without swallowing some of that money.

They may also toy with the idea of moving Cabrera back to his original position at third base, particularly given the anemic offensive production they got out of the position last year, but that also could lead to a defensive disaster.  Cabrera was moved off of the hot corner a few years ago, mainly because he wasn't capable of providing passable defense at the position.  Since then he's gained weight and lost even more range, which would further limit his ability to switch to the other side of the diamond.  For further evidence of the reasons not to push a former third baseman that was moved to first back to his original position, just look at the Red Sox with Kevin Youkilis.  Forcing Cabrera to switch positions again and having him and Fielder on the corners would easily make for the worst defensive infield in the league.  While that may not be a huge issue while strike throwing ace Justin Verlander is on the mound, it would make a huge difference for other members of their pitching staff, such as ground ball pitcher Rick Porcello.  While other teams around the league have finally started to come around to the importance of defense as a form of run prevention, this defensive infield would be extremely costly, negating some of the impact Fielder provides offensively.

The Tigers seem content with adding Fielder's bat now and worrying about where to place everyone later.  In the short term it fills a gaping hole for this season and likely keeps them as the favorite to repeat as the top team in the AL Central for the next few years.  While Fielder will almost inevitably drop off and become a sunk cost in the last few years of the contract, what he adds in the short term will be worth it if he can help deliver a title or two.  If nothing else, armed with the league's best pitcher and now the best hitting duo, the Tigers will be a force to be reckoned with.