The Patriots will be hungry and motivated to avenge that postseason failure from two years ago, as their redemption tour continues. They already got some semblance of redemption for last season's early exit by beating the Jets twice in the regular season, which helped keep them out of the postseason. Most recently they defeated a Denver Broncos team that has historically given this Patriots team difficulties and are responsible for Tom Brady's first career playoff loss back in 2005. If the Patriots manage to defeat Baltimore, the redemption tour could very well conclude with a rematch in the Super Bowl with the Giants team that denied the Patriots their perfect season in 2007.
Before we get too ahead of ourselves, let's focus on this week's match up with Baltimore.
Keys to the game:
- Contain Ray Rice. The Patriots know first hand from the loss in 2009 how explosive the Ravens Pro-Bowl running back can be. He's as dangerous when he's bursting through holes created by his offensive line as he is as a receiver out of the backfield. The Ravens offense revolves around Rice, so when he struggles, so does the team. In Baltimore's four losses this season, Rice has averaged a mere 9 carries for just under 39 yards. Even when he is contributing as a receiver, it's clear that getting Rice a healthy dose of carries is key for the Ravens offense. If the Patriots explosive offense can build an early lead it should help limit Rice's usage, as they tend to stray away from using their most lethal weapon when they fall behind. Expect the Patriots defense to use a linebacker, such as Brandon Spikes, to spy on Rice to help limit his chances as a receiver on passing downs. Having a physical defender shadow him should help limit his big play potential on check down passes.
- Hurry up offense. The Patriots used this at times against Denver and are one of the most adept teams in the league at using it. The Pats want to be able to control the pace of this game and turn it into a shoot out, which gives Brady a huge advantage over Joe Flacco. The other benefit of using a no huddle offense is that it makes it more difficult for the Ravens to substitute defenders. Baltimore has a physically dominating defense, but it's also loaded with aging veterans, such as Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. If the Patriots offense can keep a speedy pace that prevents those players from getting a chance to catch their breath it may cause them to tire those veteran defenders out quickly.
- Pressure Flacco. The Patriots aren't known for having a great pass rush, but they are still capable of keeping enough pressure on Flacco to rattle him. Flacco's postseason career has been inconsistent, to say the least. Even when his team has won, it hasn't always come with a great performance from him. He's already made comments alluding to how even if the team wins, he's unlikely to get the credit. That doesn't sound like a QB overflowing with confidence. The Patriots can't allow him to build confidence against them or they could be in for a long day.
- Keep points off the board. While they give up plenty of yardage (31st worst defense in total yards allowed), the underrated Patriots defense still ranked a respectable 15th in points allowed. Baltimore will be able to pile up yardage with possession receiver Anquan Bolden and by dumping the ball off in the flat to Rice. That could bait the Ravens into attempting a big play to rookie receiver Torrey Smith, which is where the Patriots can capitalize on getting a turnover. The Patriots led the AFC with a +17 turnover differential (the Ravens were 4th, but with only a +2 differential), which was a key reason why the Patriots were able to prevent teams from lighting up the scoreboard against them despite the yardage they gave up. Winning the turnover battle will be an important factor in this game and the Patriots are better than anyone in the conference at doing that. While the Patriots defense gave up the most plays of 20+ yards in the league, they were in the top 10 in the league in preventing plays of 40+ yards. If the Patriots build a lead then preventing Baltimore from rallying with a quick score off a big play to Smith will be vital to maintaining that lead. They also have been able to tighten up their defense in the red zone, forcing opponents to settle for field goals instead of TDs.
- Take advantage of weaknesses. This will be an interesting game due to how well the teams match up against each other's strengths. The Patriots offense thrives on production from their tight ends, while the Ravens defense may be the best in the league at containing tight ends. The weakness of the Ravens defense is on throws to receivers on the outside, which is not where the Patriots offense tends to operate. The Patriots have one of the league's best offenses inside the red zone, but Baltimore has the league's best defense inside the 20. The Ravens want to run the ball, but the Patriots run defense is much better than their pass defense. The Patriots can be beaten through the air, but having Flacco attempt to win a shoot out with Brady is a recipe for disaster. Each team seems to have an answer for their opponents biggest strengths, while appearing to be ill equipped to take advantage of their weaknesses. The Patriots should find themselves in a good position to win as long as they can do a better job of exploiting the Raven's weaknesses.
- Home field advantage. Much has been made about the lack of crowd noise at Gillette Stadium this season, as several players have commented on how they'd like their home crowd to be louder to give their team a slight edge on their home field. This is of particular importance given how poorly Baltimore played on the road this season. All four of their losses came on the road and were all against teams that failed to make the playoffs (Tennessee, Jacksonville, Seattle, San Diego). Whether or not the fans got "lubed up" before the game, as Brady encouraged them to do earlier this season, the crowd seemed to be as raucous as it has been all year in last week's win over the Broncos. Perhaps Patriots fans have become a bit too nonchalant about the regular season due to all the success the team has had over the past decade, but they know how to turn it up for the playoffs. Expect Gillette to be rocking on Sunday.
Make no mistake, the Ravens are a tough team that clearly deserves to be on this stage. Yet there's a reason why this game is being played in Foxboro - because they are the better team. On Sunday they need to prove it. If they can follow these keys to the game then they should be headed to Indianapolis for their 5th Super Bowl appearance of the Brady/Belichick era. As for winning a 4th ring to add to their collection, that remains to be seen. As Belichick would say, we take it one game at a time. The focus right now is on the Ravens. Anything beyond that, we hope to tackle next week.Prediction: Patriots 24 - Ravens 20
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