World Series Preview

It all comes down to this.  Two teams remaining, the best that each league has to offer.  The American and National League champions face off in the World Series to determine the winner of baseball's ultimate prize.  The Fall Classic gets underway tonight, with the St. Louis Cardinals hosting the Texas Rangers.  While the division winning Rangers finished six games ahead of the Wild Card Cardinals in the regular season, the ridiculous All-Star game rules give the National League team home field advantage.  Will that be enough to sway the series in their favor?

Let's break down how the teams compare in the main aspects of the game to help us determine a winner.

Offense

You can't talk about hitting in this series without starting out mentioning Albert Pujols, who is undoubtedly the best hitter of the past decade.  He is the heart of the lineup, which also includes star hitters Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman, forming a formidable core.  That trio arguably includes three of the top four hitters in this series.  David Freese is an up and coming talent that currently leads the NL in HRs and RBIs this postseason and just took home the NLCS MVP award.

On the other hand, the Rangers lineup is much deeper.  Josh Hamilton was the AL MVP last year, but he's hardly the only threat in this lethal lineup, which has few holes.  ALCS MVP Nelson Cruz leads all players this postseason with 6 HRs and he bats 7th in their lineup.  When the series shifts to Texas for Game 3, the Rangers will also have the advantage at DH.  Michael young, who tied for second in the AL in batting average this season, will hit in that spot.  Coming from the DH-less NL, the Cardinals aren't accustomed to having an extra bat for that spot. They'll likely put Lance Berkman there and use Allen Craig in right field, which upgrades their defense, but is a disadvantage offensively. 

Edge: Rangers

Defense

The Rangers have a huge advantage in this aspect of the game, as they ranked 6th in the majors with a UZR of +25.9.  Meanwhile, the Cardinals were one of the worst defensive teams this year, with a -29.8 UZR.  The Rangers are strong up the middle with Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler, plus Adrian Beltre may be the game's best defensive third baseman.  Hamilton and Cruz are both above average defenders in the outfield with strong arms.  Mike Napoli has been criticized for his defense in the past, which is why the Angels let him go, but he's shown steady improvement behind the plate and is far from a liability.  Their biggest weakness is at first base, where Mitch Moreland is a bit below average defensively and if Michael Young takes over the position for the games in St. Louis then they decline even more.

The Cardinals aren't completely inept with their gloves.  Albert Pujols may have lost some of his range, but he's still an above average first baseman.  Yadier Molina is one of the game's best defensive catchers, with a rifle arm used to throw out base stealers and make snap throws to pick off runners on the corners.  Lance Berkman is a weak defender in right field, but at least they'll be able to use him at DH for part of the series.  The Cardinals ranked 27th in the majors by committing 116 errors.  While the Rangers weren't much better in that category (114), some of those errors came on balls that many fielders wouldn't even get to.  The advanced statistics show that the Rangers cover much more ground, recording more outs on balls hit into their respective zones and saving more runs.

Edge: Rangers

Starting Pitching

Both teams have struggled this postseason with their starting rotations, with their starters failing to go deep into games.  Chris Carpenter has been the exception, as shown by his complete game 3 hitter to close out the Phillies in the opening round.  He wasn't quite as sharp in his last start against the Brewers, but he's still the top ace in this series and has proven capable of rising up for big games.  Expect him to throw a gem at some point in this series, possibly starting with Game 1.

On the mound for the Rangers in the opener will be CJ Wilson, who has been abysmal this postseason (0-2, 8.04 ERA).  Coming off a strong regular season (16-7, 2.94 ERA), Wilson had positioned himself well for his impending free agency.  He'll need to pitch a couple of strong starts in this series to prove he can perform on the big stage if he expects to get that big money contract from a contending team, as his performance thus far in the postseason may have already cost him millions.

Both rotations have a little bit of depth, with Colby Lewis, Derek Holland and Matt Harrison filling out the Rangers rotation.  The Cardinals counter with Jamie Garcia, Kyle Lohse and Edwin Jackson.  Garcia is a legit number two starter, but the other two are a bit more shaky.  On paper they appear to match up favorably with the Rangers rotation, until you factor in that the Cardinals pitched primarily in a pitcher friendly environment against the offensively challenged NL teams, while the Rangers pitched against deeper lineups in one of the league's best hitter's parks.  The Rangers rotation is probably a bit deeper, but the Cardinals are stronger at the top.

Edge: Cardinals

Bullpen
While the starters for the Rangers (5.62 ERA) and Cardianls (5.43 ERA) have struggled this postseason, both bullpens have been lights out, combining for a 2.45 ERA and .185 Opp BA in just under 85 combined innings between the two clubs. 

The Rangers bullpen has been able to shut down opponent's lineups all year, particularly in the second half, following the deadline trade for Mike Adams.  He's been used to set up flame throwing closer Neftali Feliz, forming one of the league's best late game combinations.  Alexi Ogando was one of their most reliable starting pitchers in the first half of the season, but started to wear down as his innings total piled up.  Since being moved to the bullpen in September he has been un-hittable, carrying an 0.87 ERA in 10.1 postseason innings.

Cardinals closer Jason Motte hasn't allowed a run and has only allowed one baserunner in 8 postseason innings.  While he was effective all season long, he wasn't able to earn the closer role until late in the season, which explains why he only saved 9 games.  That makes him less of a certainty in the high pressure situations late in the game, but he's clearly handling it well now.  Fernando Salas and Octavio Dotel have been nearly as impressive in the playoffs as well. 

It's clear that neither team needs their starters to go deep into games when they have so many stoppers available in their bullpens.  As good as the Cardinals bullpen has been in the playoffs, I would trust the names in the Rangers bullpen slightly more.

Edge: Rangers

The Cardinals have been quite a story, coming back to overtake Atlanta for the Wild Card spot on the last day of the season and building on that momentum to make it all the way to the World Series.  The uncertainty of the future of Albert Pujols adds another dimension to the drama, as we may very well be being seeing his last days in a Cardinals uniform. 

Pujols has the ability to carry the Cardinals on his back to win a game by himself and Carpenter may even be able to shut down this powerful lineup, but in a seven game series I'm taking the more complete team with fewer weaknesses, capable of winning with power, speed and pitching.

Prediction: Rangers in 6