The team made some major changes in the off-season by bringing in several high caliber players to join an already star studded roster, but also lost a couple of All-Stars in the process. It will be interesting to see how the new line-up looks after all the changes, which includes the return of some players that finished last season on the disabled list. Once again the Red Sox are widely considered to have the best team in the league, at least on paper. However, we know from last year's experience that pre-season projections don't necessarily lead to a title, or even a playoff spot.
Let's look at some of the changes to this season's roster, as well as the team's strengths and weaknesses as we prepare to begin the 2011 season.
Out with the old...
Last year the Red Sox managed to remain competitive despite a rash of injuries throughout their line-up, thanks in part to two All-Stars that provided consistent production. Unfortunately, neither Victor Martinez or Adrian Beltre will be returning to the team this season.
Martinez hit .302/.351/.493 with 20 Home Runs last season. Despite making a brief visit to the DL mid-season, V-Mart still appeared in 127 games. Those are excellent numbers for a catcher. The Sox will be hard pressed to come anywhere near that kind of production from that position this year.
Beltre was considered to be in the runner for MVP before the Sox dropped out of contention near the end of the year. He carried the team for stretches by hitting .321/.365/.553 with 28 Home Runs, while also providing his usual Gold Glove caliber defense at the hot corner.
The outstanding seasons for both players led to each of them being offered big multi-year contracts from other teams, which the Red Sox were not comfortable with outbidding. An understandable decision when we later found out what the team was planning instead.
In with the new!
The Red Sox kicked off the winter by making a big splash by trading away a trio of high level prospects to San Diego for stud first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. A big time power hitter and elite defender in the prime of his career, Gonzalez is a huge addition for this line-up that was in need of another power bat. Gonzalez's career line of .284/.368/.507 is even more impressive when you consider he spent his previous years hitting in Petco Park, a ballpark considered a death trap for power hitting left handers. When he is let loose in the friendly confines of Fenway Park, his numbers should spike to eye popping levels.
Five days after the big trade, the Sox shocked the world by signing the top free agent hitter on the market, Carl Crawford. He's a 5-tool player with elite speed and is also an outstanding defender. He's averaged over 50 steals per season in his career, and while that may drop slightly hitting in this line-up, he's still among the best in the league at swiping bases. Teaming with Jacoby Ellsbury, the speedsters will provide the team with the best base stealing duo in team history.
Last year the emphasis was all about upgrading the defense, which has a far greater impact on team success than we previously realized, according to several advanced statistics that are steadily becoming more mainstream. These new additions not only give a major boost to the line-up thanks to what they do with their bats, but both are among the best in the league at fielding their positions as well.
Line-up Questions
We know the Red Sox will have a strong line-up this year, but it remains to be seen what the order will look like. We know the names that will be included, but not necessarily the order. Terry Francona has stated several times in the past that he believes that when Ellsbury is healthy and hitting well that their best line-up is with him leading off. Coming off a season ruined by broken ribs, there are questions about whether he is best suited to begin the year in that spot, or if he should be eased back in by starting at the bottom of the order. Crawford appears to have the tools to be a successful lead off hitter, but he's made it clear that he is not comfortable hitting in the leadoff spot.
Another issue with the line-up is that it is extremely heavy on left handed hitters. 5 of the 9 starters are left handed, plus their switch hitting catcher, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, struggles to hit left handed pitching. Along with David Ortiz and JD Drew, he's a candidate to platoon at the position, sitting against tough left handed pitchers. They should destroy right handed pitching (which is the majority of the league's pitchers) but could be taken advantage of in the later innings when teams use left handed specialists out of the bullpen.
There are several variations of line-ups that Francona can experiment with, and it's likely that what we see on opening day won't stick through the whole season. Here is an example of a line-up which I believe would be best for the team.
- Jacoby Ellsbury
- Carl Crawford
- Dustin Pedroia
- Adrian Gonzalez
- Kevin Youkilis
- David Ortiz
- Marco Scutaro
- JD Drew
- Jarrod Saltalamacchia
We've already covered the strength of the team's hitting, which boasts 6 players with potential All-Star talent. They will score plenty of runs, possibly even leading the league in that category. As long as they are healthier than last year, offense should not be a problem for this team.
The team is also solid defensively. There is a lot of speed in the outfield with Ellsbury and Crawford. Drew has plenty of critics, but his defense is wildly underrated. There's a few elite infielders as well, such as Gonzalez, Youkilis and Pedroia. Scutaro should be more than sufficient if he's recovered from the neck injury that he played with for most of last season and should hold down the spot nicely until Jose Inglesias is ready to take over. Salty may not hit anything like V-Mart, but he's likely to be an upgrade defensively at least. On the bench they will be able to bring in Mike Cameron, who is still a good defensive outfielder, even at his age. Super utility guy Jed Lowrie should see plenty of action filling in at several infield positions as well. His versatility should be a big key for this team that has several players coming off injuries and will want to get some players some extra rest on occasion.
The starting rotation should be strong, especially at the top. Jon Lester is one of the top starters in the league and will contend for the Cy Young award. He had his best year last season, winning 19 games with a 3.25 ERA and 225 Ks, and will be looking to improve upon those numbers as the ace of this staff. A closer look at the numbers last year for Clay Buchholz may show signs of regression coming this season. He was a bit lucky on balls hit in play and his K/9 rate has steadily decreased each season that he's been in the league. While he's unlikely to repeat his 2.33 ERA, he should still have a strong season, giving the Sox another potential ace at the top of the rotation. Meanwhile, veterans Josh Beckett and John Lackey can't be nearly as bad as they were last season. They both have strong track records that show the kind of talent they possess. Beckett just needs to stay healthy long enough to find his comfort zone again. He's capable of being one of the game's best pitchers again. Lackey showed signs of improvement in the second half of last season after taking some time to adjust to a new team and ballpark and he brings a lot of value in his ability to eat up a lot of innings (team high 215 innings last year).
The bullpen should be much improved as well. Jonathan Papelbon will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing season (by his lofty standards anyway) to re-establish himself as one of the top closers in the game. In his last season before free agency, he'll have plenty of motivation. He'll be backed up by the closer of the future, Daniel Bard, who has been lights out so far in his young career. The bullpen will also welcome a couple of veteran additions in Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler. The Red Sox had some question marks with their bullpen last season, but it now appears fully stocked.
Weaknesses
There aren't a lot of holes in this line-up, but one area that they could struggle is at catcher. Salty was a highly regarded prospect at one time, but his stock has fallen considerably in recent years, as he's yet to show consistent production at the major league level. He certainly has the talent, both offensively and defensively, but it remains to be seen if he will ever put it all together. His back-up is the 38 year old Captain, Jason Varitek, who can't be counted on for more than a couple games per week, and there doesn't seem to be any immediate help from their minor league system on the way.
As good as the rotation could be, there are some definite question marks at the end of the rotation. We'd like to think that Beckett and Lackey can bounce back to perform closer to their career averages, but it may be a little too optimistic to expect both of them to. If neither of them does then the rotation could be in trouble. We have no idea what we will get out of Dice-K this year, so the back end of our rotation has to be considered a weakness until they prove otherwise.
Conclusion
Every team has holes, but the Red Sox seem to have less issues than most teams. On paper they appear to be the best team in the league and will be a heavy favorite to bring home another title this season. The new additions to the line-up will excite a fan base that appeared to lose interest down the stretch last year as the team faded out of contention. It's a new year and suddenly we're full of hope. As long as they can avoid being devastated by the injury bug again this year, there's plenty of reason to be optimistic. Even in Boston, where optimism doesn't come easily, this team provides plenty of reasons to believe in them this year.
We'll just have to wait and see how it all plays out.
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