Not to be confused with the 2011 MLB Preview (coming soon), this preview focuses on Fantasy Baseball, the popular online strategy sports game that matches up players against other managers in their league by drafting a roster full of major league players. Since most fantasy leagues will be drafting within the next couple of weeks, it's time to start researching to prepare for your draft. Here is some advice to help get you started.
- Don't mess around with the top pick in the draft - take Albert Pujols. That's not to say that we can guarantee the St. Louis slugger will finish in the top spot this season, but he's as safe a bet as any. He was the top player in the game in 2009 and finished second last season. His ceiling is limitless and more importantly, his floor is still higher than anyone elses. Pujols has averaged .331 with about 40 HRs, 120 RBIs and 120 runs per season in his 10 year career. He's even capable of throwing in double digit steal numbers as icing on the cake. Oh yea, and he's in a contract year where he's looking to prove he's worth the $30 million per year price tag he's looking for. Look for a monster season from Pujols.
- Know your league's scoring. Most leagues use the standard 5x5 scoring: Runs, HRs, RBIs, Batting Avg, and Steals for hitters. Wins, Saves, ERA, Whip and Strikeouts for pitchers. However, not every league is the same. For example, I run a league where I'm experimenting with some new categories, such as OBP, Slugging %, Holds and K/9 innings. These scoring changes can drastically alter your drafting strategy. For one thing, relievers become more valuable due to their ability to get Holds. The K/9 innings category makes them more competitive than they would be in a category that only counted total strikeouts. This set up decreases the value of winning the counting categories by streaming pitchers from the wavier wire. To add balance, I also require 5 SP spots (standard is 2) to ensure teams don't try to load up on too many relievers. Depending on your league's scoring, there are several strategies that you could use to build a team. Knowing what categories your league uses will help you determine what strategy to use.
- Head-to-Head vs Roto. These are the two most common types of leagues and it's important to know what kind of league you are in. Sticking with the strategy theme, building your team for a Head-to-Head league may be different than building a Roto team.
For one thing, Roto leagues typically have player and innings limits. During the season it will be important to maximize each position to ensure each of your position spots reaches the 82 game limit. For pitchers, the innings limit removes the benefit of the streaming strategy. It's important to draft players that are likely to get a lot of wins and strikeouts. Players like Tim Hudson and Clay Buchholz have great numbers, but their low strikeout numbers could hurt your team just as much as a pitcher with a bloated ERA. This alters the value of certain pitchers that don't contribute in several categories.
Head-to Head leagues offer a variety of different strategies that won't necessarily work in roto. We've already discussed the benefits of streaming, which can give you an edge in counting stats like Wins and K's. This also can work for hitters to some extent, as some weeks teams will get a day off. Mondays and Thursdays are typically good days to keep an eye out for when to plug in your bench players. This is a must for H-2-H leagues, but needs to be done with more caution in roto due to the player games limits. H-2-H leagues also offer the option of punting certain categories. You don't need to be dominant in every category. When you get to the playoffs, winning your matchup 6-4 is just as good as 10-0. So halfway through your draft you may realize your team is lacking in speed. You don't necessarily need to reach for a guy like Juan Pierre. He's certainly useful for his stolen base potential, but doesn't provide much production in any other category. One proven strategy would be to ignore steals as a category and focus more on beefing up production in other categories. Better to be dominant in a few categories than mediocre in every category. This strategy typically doesn't work in roto because ranking near the bottom of a category could drag down your whole team. - Auction drafts are better than snake drafts. This of course comes down to preference. I'm just stating that my preference is for auctions. Typically experienced players would agree, since an auction draft involves more strategy. Each manager is given a salary cap (usually $250) to start the draft. They take turns nominating a player, who then can be bid on by all managers in the league. So if there is a certain player you really want on your team you don't have to cross your fingers that he's still available for your next pick. If you want him you can have him - you just have to pay for him. Seems easy enough, but do that too often at the start of a draft and you'll find yourself with little money left to fill out the rest of your roster with. It's all about knowing the value of the player, when to overpay and when to try to drive up the price for everyone else.
There are several ways to go about a successful auction draft. Some like the stars and scrubs method, where they spend big money on several top tier players and fill out the rest of their lineups with cheap players. Others take a more conservative approach by not overspending for players to ensure they have money left near the end of the draft. This allows them to outbid other managers on sleeper picks.
I usually approach auction drafts by ensuring I get at least one player that is at the top tier of a position. You likely can't afford to have a top player at every position, but you should have at least one. For example, let's say I spent a ton of money on Albert Pujols. For the next several rounds, whenever it was my turn to nominate a player I would select a first baseman. Why? Because I've already filled that spot on my roster, so I won't be needing another slugger at that position. I'd rather see the other managers bid against themselves and spend money on a player I don't need rather than nominate a player I do want when other teams have more money than I do. I rarely nominate someone that I actually want unless it's near the end of the draft. - Don't overpay for past success. Just because a player provided a certain level of production last year doesn't necessarily mean they will again. This is particularly true with older players that are on the decline or players that exceeded expectations last season. Don't overpay for a name brand! Star players in their prime that have longer track records are safer in the early rounds.
The huge power leap for Jose Bautista last year may be valid when studying his approach, but that doesn't mean we can expect another 54 HR season, especially when his previous career high was only 17. It's possible he could lead the league in that category again, but without much of a track record to go on we shouldn't expect it. Don't draft him in the first round expecting him to be a top 10 player again. Pay for 30-35 HRs, not 50, and be happy with the added value of the pick if he exceeds that mark again. Better that method as opposed to the guy that drafts him with their first pick, only to be disappointed if he only hits 30 HRs. - Beware of the black hole position - SS. Hanley Ramirez is undeniably the top SS to be drafted. Some may even make a case for him being the top player overall due to the scarcity of the position. In any case, he'll fly off the board very quickly in drafts and be soon followed by Troy Tulowitzki. Both of these players will likely be gone before the end of the first round in a snake draft and command a big chunk of your budget in auction leagues, despite that neither player finished within the top 20 players overall last year. The reason for that is because there is a huge drop off after those two studs to the next tier of players at that position. The next group of players according to standard default rankings include players with massive question marks due to age or injury histories, such as Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins and Derek Jeter. They are all capable of putting up star caliber numbers, but they are too big of a risk to be drafted in the early rounds. Due to lack of depth at the SS position they will likely all be drafted within the first 5 rounds, which would be far too early for my liking. None of those players are likely to end up on any of my teams due to the risk involved and the high price required to get them. I'd rather wait until near the end of the draft and pick a young player with upside, such as Starlin Castro, because there is more potential value and less risk with that pick.
- Never pay for Saves! Sure, it'd be nice to have a reliable closer or two on your staff, but at what price? The truth is, closers only really help you in one category in a standard league. It's better to use those picks in the earlier round on players that can help in multiple categories. Some of the top closers may have lower ERAs and WHIPs with more Ks, but they pitch so few innings throughout the year that it minimizes their impact on those categories. Saves are one of the most fluky stats, since it's all about opportunity. It's also one of the most volatile positions in the game. Some teams, like the Yankees and Red Sox are lucky enough to have a solid reliable option at the end of their bullpen, but many teams change closers every year, or even every month. Injuries and ineffectiveness open up closing opportunities for other players all the time, so if you find yourself lacking in the saves category after your draft then just be patient. There will be a new option for you to pick up as a free agent soon enough.
- Starting Pitching is DEEP. There are at least 20 starters worthy of being considered an ace, so if you're able to get one or two of them then you're in great shape. Many people will argue that Roy Halladay should be drafted in the first round because he's the most reliable starter and a near lock to put up great numbers. While there is something to be said for his reliability, I'd rather focus my early round picks or budget towards position players that are harder to fill. Also, keep in mind that a starting pitcher can only help you in 4 categories, while some of the top level hitters can contribute in 5 categories. As tempting as it would be to add an ace like Halladay, King Felix or Lincecum to my rotation, I'll probably miss out on them all because I'm not likley to select a pitcher with my first 3 picks or spend more than $20 for a pitcher in an auction. I can still build a strong pitching staff in the middle rounds with players like Josh Johnson, Mat Latos or David Price. There just isn't enough depth at any of the position players to add that kind of an impact player that late in the draft, so I'll target those early and wait a few rounds before looking at pitchers. There are also a lot more high upside players at the pitcher spot that can be taken outside of the top 50 at the position and there are always break out players that go undrafted and can be picked up later.
- Don't overpay for over-hyped prospects. Part of having a successful draft is identifying young stars ready to break out. Those in the business world will be familiar with the term ROI - return on investment. Those that drafted Carlos Gonzalez last season, when he was the top rated fantasy player in the league, likely were very successful because of the profit returned, considering he was likely drafted outside of the first 10 rounds. If you drafted Pujols first overall then you're not disappointed with his 2nd place finish, but there is less value in that pick because you got about what you expected. CarGo far exceeded anyone's expectations, therefore he was a better value pick.
However, you must be careful not to go overboard on sleeper picks. For one thing, they aren't always reliable. Relying too heavily on young players could set you up for failure if enough of them don't succeed, so you need to balance this with reliable veterans. For every Buster Posey that contributes like an All-Star right away there's a Matt Wieters that fails to live up to lofty expectations out of the chute. If you pick sleeper picks near the end of the draft then you have a chance at capitalizing on their potential breakout, increasing their ROI. If you pick them too early then they can be a big bust for your roster if they don't pan out. Even if they do, picking them too early decreases their ROI. Don't reach for these young players unless you are certain that they won't be available later. - You can't win a league on draft day. Having a good draft is certainly a key part of any season and will help get your team off to a good start. However, a good draft is not necessarily an indication of a winning season, especially in competitive leagues. Likewise, a poor draft doesn't necessarily doom your chances. There's still a long road ahead. Free agent pick ups and trades throughout the year are ways to improve your team along the way. It's nearly impossible for the team that wins your league to have the exact same roster that they started with. Keep this in mind while drafting. You'll want to have a plan on how you want to build your roster going into the draft, which means you won't necessarily be drafting based solely on the default rankings. You should make a list of your own rankings, as you may value certain players differently than the "experts" do.
Finally, have fun playing the game. Some leagues can get competitive, but in the end it's just a game. So enjoy, and good luck!
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