Ok, so I didn't do very well in my predictions last week. In fact, only one of the teams that I predicted actually won their game last week. Thanks, Baltimore, for saving me from a goose egg. That's the funny thing about predictions, is that they are just an educated guess of what we think will happen, not what we know will happen. As far as I know, there are no psychics that can predict these things. If you meet someone who claims to be a psychic then you may want to ask yourself why they are living in a circus tent instead of using their "gifts" to cash in and become rich. No, we can't see the future and we can't predict with 100% accuracy who will win the game, no matter how much of a lock it appears to be (see Saints fans sadly nodding their heads). So if you lost lots of money in Vegas last weekend due to my predictions then I apologize. I'll try to do better this week.
There are four teams left in each conference battling it out for a chance to move on to the conference title game. In the AFC we're treated to two rubber match games that pit division rivals that split their regular season games against each other. In the NFC we get to see the top seeded Falcons host the team that might actually be the best team in the conference. Oh yea, and those surprising Seahawks get to continue the "nobody believed in us" tour to Chicago.
Here are my predictions for this week:
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
This should be a good old fashioned slobber-knocker. The AFC North rivals split the season series with each team winning on the road. Despite being the Wild Card team, the Ravens will come in with plenty of confidence. Both teams bring a physical, punishing defense. It's going to get ugly, it's going to be messy, but it's going to be a lot of fun to watch.
Like just about everyone else in the league, the Ravens struggled to run the ball in their two games against the Steelers this season. Ray Rice was essentially a non-factor in both games, even in the passing game. If they take him out of this game it puts a lot of pressure on Joe Flacco to carry the load. I'm not sure he's up to it.
The Steelers benefit from the bye week, which allowed them to rest their banged up defense, particularly Troy Polamalu. Both teams are going to find it tough to run in this game, which plays against their strengths, but if it comes down to a QB battle between Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger then Big Ben is the guy I'd lean toward. The Ravens secondary is beatable, especially for someone with the speed of Mike Wallace, but I expect them to limit the deep plays by using Safety Ed Reed to play over on his side. If Roethlisberger tries to force it deep to Wallace it will give Ed Reed, who led the league in Interceptions despite missing 6 games, a chance to make a play that could turn the tide in this game.
If the Steelers can avoid losing the turnover battle and dumb penalties (not sure if you've heard, but the league is out to get the Steelers. Just ask them) then the edge in QBs and the home field advantage should be enough to pull out a hard fought win.
Steelers 17, Ravens 14
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons
Can we consider this the real NFC title game? I would expect the winner of this game to be heavy favorites against which ever team wins the other NFC match-up this week.
The Packers proved last week that they do in fact have a running game with James Starks leading the way. Whether they can carry that over to another game against a better opponent is yet to be seen, but the Falcons surely saw what they did against the Eagles and will at least have to prepare for it. Aaron Rodgers is near the top of the elite QBs in the league. He has a reliable veteran in Driver to compliment his big play making receiver, Greg Jennings. They have such an explosive offense that sometimes people forget that they had the league's 5th ranked defense, thanks to a punishing pass rush led by Clay Matthews (13.5 sacks).
As good as the Packers defense was overall, they were only middle of the pack in rush defense. The Falcons would be wise to keep Michael Turner involved, as they don't want to try to have Matt Ryan beat Rodgers in a shoot out. Atlanta is a very balanced offense, as they were above average in both passing and rushing, but not dominant in either. Roddy White is one of the league's best receivers (2nd in yardage) and Tony Gonzalez is as reliable a target as you'll find. They should be able to find ways to mix things up enough to move the ball.
A few weeks ago the Falcons had a perception around the league of being invincible at home. They had been undefeated through most of the season at home and Matt Ryan had only lost one home game in his entire career. That all ended in Week 16 in a Monday Night showdown against the Saints. While the loss didn't end up having any impact on their playoff spot, it did deflate the Aura of their dominance in the Georgia Dome. The Packers will come in with a little more confidence knowing that the Falcons can be beaten at home. The Packers have more momentum coming into the game, which could be enough to pull off the upset. They may be peaking at the right time, while the Falcons may have peaked too early.
Packers 27, Falcons 23
Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears
I still can't believe that a 7-9 team even made the playoffs, but I'm even more shocked that they were able to pull off an upset victory over the defending champion Saints. Maybe they deserve a little more credit then they've been given, but I still can't see them winning on the road. They won't have the crowd noise to help them as their 12th man and the Bears won't underestimate them like the Saints did. There's also no way they are putting up 41 points against the Bears defense. Give Hasselbeck and their offense credit for what they did last week, but they'll come back down to earth this week.
Part of the reason the Saints lost last week is because the Seahawks kept starting their drives early in the game with great field position because the Saints were too afraid to kick off to Leon Washington. Chicago's Devin Hester is an even more dangerous kick returner. Will either team bother to kick off deep to allow them a chance at a return? Will both teams just keep trying on-side kicks?
I know, Seattle went to Chicago earlier this season and won, but don't expect them to do it again.
Then again... you never know when Jay Cutler will de-rail his team with one of his classic 4 Interception performances. This is a guy that has a losing record in his career (including college) and has never won a playoff game. He led the league in Interceptions last year (26) and while he did cut down to only 16 this year, he also fumbled 9 times and was sacked 52 times (6 of them in the game against Seattle).
Still, I just can't pick a team that went 2-6 on the road this year to win a road playoff game.
Barring a Cutler melt-down (which we can't completely discount as a possibility) the Bears should move on to the next round thanks to their defense and special teams.
Chicago 20, Seahawks 13
New York Jets at New England Patriots
It's round three of this bitter rivalry. The Jets are off to a fast start in the trash talking category, as they've spent all week dissing Brady and the Pats. Most people that know him seem to think Tom Brady is a nice guy, but Antonio Cromartie thinks he's an A-Hole. Classy move Cromartie, you're clearly a stand up guy yourself. If you have had 9 kids with 8 different women, what does that make you?
Meanwhile, Rex Ryan is doing his best to turn this into a game that is all about him beating Belichick. Last I checked, the players are the ones out on the field, so maybe they'll have some impact on this game. That was essentially Belichick's response. Typical Belichick. Basically he's the opposite of Rex, who seems to be causing a media storm in order to divert attention away from the embarrassment of the leaked video of his wife's foot fetish video.
As for the Patriots players, they won't come out and battle the Jets through the media, although Wes Welker's deadpan press conference was hilarious.
In their first meeting, the Jets won because Brady tried to force the ball to Randy Moss to feed his ego. That game may have been the first step toward Moss' surprise exit two weeks later. The Patriots rebuilt their offense on the fly and have become even more dominant without the man who was once considered the most explosive receiver in league history. When the teams met again later this season, the new look Pats destroyed the Jets to the tune of a 45-3 beatdown.
Many will look at that most recent game and expect another Pats blow-out victory, but I expect this game to be much closer. The Jets will be better prepared this time and will have that disastrous loss to use as motivation for this game. They will bring their A game.
However, their A game probably won't be good enough. The Patriots are just too good. The Jets defense is great, but the Patriots will nullify most of their strengths by spreading the ball around? Who is Revis going to shut down in this game? Deion Branch? Fine, Brady will feed the ball to Welker out of the slot. Or use his two rookie tight ends, who the Jets safeties will struggle to cover. While the Jets have two elite corners, they don't have the depth in their secondary to stop all of the weapons the Patriots have. Their offense is much more unpredictable then the Randy Moss team that the Jets beat early in the season.
The Patriots defense has been their weakness, particularly their pass defense, which ranked 30th in the league. However, the defense did play much better down the stretch and will be well rested after a bye week. Mark Sanchez doesn't seem like he's good enough to take advantage of this weakness, despite having some capable weapons to work with. He was very inconsistent this year and looked horrible last week, despite beating the Colts. There are rumors that he is playing hurt, which would not bode well for the Jets. They barely squeaked past the Colts (mostly due to bad kick return coverage and poor coaching decisions with a late timeout) and will have to play much better this week to have a chance.
The Jets are 2-2 against the Patriots in the Rex Ryan era, but have lost both games in Foxborough. This game won't be any different.
Patriots 27, Jets 23
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