Thursday, January 20, 2011

NBA Mid-Season Grades

While the All-Star game is still a few weeks away, we are just about at the halfway point of the season with all teams in the league going over the 40 game mark for the season this week.  With that in mind it's time to take a look at each team to rate how they have done in the first half of the season.

Atlanta Hawks - B+
Right: The Hawks have gotten off to a surprisingly good start considering many expected a slight decline this season while their division rivals improved.  Yet they find themselves in the thick of the Southeast division race.  Al Horford has taken another big step forward to establish himself as one of the best young big men in the East.
Wrong: After signing the biggest max contract of the summer, Joe Johnson has seen his numbers decline a bit.  Part of that may be attributed to playing in a new system, which focuses more on ball movement rather than the old "Iso-Joe" offense that allowed him to control the ball more.  His usage rate has dropped as other teammates have gotten more involved.  He also struggled early with an elbow injury that cost him 7 games, but since his return he's started to turn things around and has played better over the past month. 
Result: Johnson's 6 year, $119 million deal may cripple the team in the long term, but the outlook for this season remains strong.  Unfortunately they share a division with two of the top teams in the East, so overcoming both Miami and Orlando may prove to be too much of a challenge.  They'll make the playoffs, but may have to settle for a 5 or 6 seed, which could mean a first round exit.

Boston Celtics - A
Right: Another strong start pushed Boston out to a 23-5 start through Christmas.  Paul Pierce is playing as well as ever by being the most reliable scoring option and using his all around game to contribute in many other areas as well.  Rajon Rondo has become an elite point guard, leading the league in assist by a wide margin (13.4).  Ray Allen is closing in on the league record for career 3 point field goals made and KG has looked like he has his legs back under him again.  They continue to win with veteran savvy and suffocating defense (2nd in Defensive Efficiency).  "Big Baby" Davis is a contender for 6th man of the year.  He has thrived as the main option off the bench.  When KG was injured he was forced to step into the starting line-up where he struggled a bit.  He forced too many shots, which isn't necessary when the 1st unit is loaded with so many other options.  He seems more comfortable leading the 2nd unit, so the team needs to stay healthy in order to allow him to thrive in that role.
Wrong: As many predicted, injuries has been the one flaw capable of derailing this team from championship aspirations.  Kendrick Perkins still hasn't played this season while recovering from off-season knee surgery.  Delonte West has barely played thanks to a 10 game suspension which was followed by a wrist injury that still has him out of the line-up.  Jermaine O'Neal has barely played and will be out at least another month.  Most damaging has been the chunks of games missed by Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo.  Pierce and Allen have been healthy so far (knock on wood), but at their age there are legitimate concerns over how much longer they can hold up.  They need more rest, but can't afford to take it with the rest of the line-up being so depleted.  They have a lot of depth at the big man positions, but need to keep them all healthy if they hope to improve in the rebounding stats.  They are in the bottom half of the league in rebound rate and dead last in rebounds per game.  That last stat can be misleading, as their rebound totals are impacted by their slow pace.  Their lack of offensive rebounds is what drags them down, but that is influenced by their league best True Shooting Percentage and their team philosophy of getting back on defense to prevent transition baskets for the other team rather than crashing the boards to get offensive rebounds.  Nonetheless, their rebounding needs to improve to compete with teams that have dominant big men such as the Magic, Lakers and Spurs.
Result: They have the best record in the East so far, but we've seen this before.  It's amazing how they've managed to keep winning games despite all the injuries.  When they finally get everyone healthy they can finally start to form some chemistry on their bench, which would make them even more dangerous.  They play in arguable the worst division in the league, so they are a near lock to win the Atlantic Division, which guarantees them at least a top 4 seed in the playoffs.  If they can get healthy (a big if) they have a great chance to get the top seed and make a deep playoff run, potentially even a title run.

Charlotte Bobcats - C-
Right: It's hard to figure what direction the Cats are going in.  They have a few pieces that hold some value as trade assets, such as Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace, but neither is a player they can build around. They don't have much in terms of young talent to rebuild with outside of Tyrus Thomas, who has been held back for the most part this year.  The departure of Larry Brown could change that, as they've already started playing better since the coaching change.
Wrong: They have been starting Kwame Brown at center lately, doesn't that say enough?  The former number one bust isn't even their biggest worry.  Captain Jack and Wallace have both declined from their former All-Star levels and their supporting cast isn't good enough to support them as a contender.  In recent years they have been one of the better defensive teams, but it's yet to be seen if that will continue without Brown as the coach.  They are one of the worst offensive teams in the league, which doesn't seem likely to change no matter who the coach is.
Result: They seem to be in no man's land.  They have a shot at the 8th seed in the East due to the lack of depth in the conference, but would be almost a lock as an early first round exit, just like last year.  If they miss the playoffs they probably wouldn't even get a high draft pick without a little luck in the lottery.  Their best bet is to blow things up by trading S-Jax and Wallace for younger, cheaper talent and draft picks and hope for a high lottery pick in the draft that they can build upon.  Then hope that Michael Jordan can use his legacy to charm some free agents into joining them.  Good luck with that.

Chicago Bulls - A-
Right: Derek Rose has taken his game to another level by averaging nearly 25 points per game and 8 assists while improving his long range shot (1.6 3PM) and doing a better job of getting to the free throw line (81% on 6 FTA per game).  He's led the Bulls to first in their division and put himself in the middle of the MVP debate.  Carlos Boozer has proved to be the inside presence they needed when they signed him as free agent this summer, but he's missed a lot of games with injuries.  He needs to stay healthy and the Bulls need to continue to get solid contributions from players like Deng and Gibson to take some of the strain of carrying the team off of Rose.  New coach Tom Thibodeau has turned them into the top team in the league in defensive efficiency, which is really saying something considering their top two players - Rose and Boozer - aren't known for their defense and Joakim Noah has missed a lot of time with injury.
Wrong: They haven't had both Boozer and Noah healthy at the same time for long enough to develop chemistry.  They need both of them to be at their best, with Boozer being an offensive threat and Noah being the defensive anchor.  They are also lacking enough threats from outside shooters, ranking in the bottom third in the league in 3 point attempts and the bottom half in 3 point percentage.  Keith Bogans may be one of the worst players in the league to have a starting spot, with a PER of only 7.11.  Ronnie Brewer and Kyle Korver haven't been much better off the bench behind him.
Result: They have a 10 game margin in the standings over Indiana for the lead in their division, so one of the top seeds in the East is a virtual lock.  They are good enough to win a first round series, but probably not more than that.  They are still a piece or two away from being a title contender.  They would love to make a trade to upgrade their SG spot, preferably a shooter.

Cleveland Caveliers - F
Right: You have to feel bad for Cleveland for how they were treated last summer when LeBron took his talents to South Beach and left the Cavs in ruins.  There is not a lot of hope left with this team.  One of the few bright spots had been the improved play of Anderson Varejao, but now he's out for the season with an injury.  At least they still have passionate fans that show up just to boo LeBron, but even his much anticipated return became a disaster for the Cavs.
Wrong: Now it's easy to see why LeBron was the MVP the past two years.  They have the same core that they had last season, but subtract LeBron and the team goes from the best record in the East to the worst.  They are the worst team in the league in offensive efficiency and next to last in defensive efficiency. 
Their -11.3 point differential is by far the worst in the league and they are on a miserable 13 game losing streak.
Result: It's not really their fault.  The Cavs did all they could to surround LeBron with the right pieces over the past couple of years to try to win a title with him and convince him to stay, but it backfired.  Now they are left with a roster full of roll players that don't really fit without a Superstar to play with.  This season is doomed.  They hired a good coach and have good management at the top with an owner willing to spend (plus he's hellbent on winning a title before LeBron does, for whatever that's worth), which suggests they will rebound eventually, but it's going to take time.

Dallas Mavericks - B+
Right: The Mavs got off to a fast start to find themselves near the top of the West.  Dirk Nowitzki may be having the best season of his career and Tyson Chandler is having a resurgant season as the physical rebounder and defender this team has lacked in the past. 
Wrong: They hid a skid when Dirk got injured and the Mavs went a miserable 2-7 without him.  He just returned and they need him to step back up to the level he had been at before the injury to carry this team.  The season ending injury to Caron Butler hurts, but Shawn Marion has filled in admirably with his increased playing time.  Jason Kidd is just as good as ever at distributing the ball, but he has started to decline in other areas.  His scoring is down to single digits per game and he's shooting a stomach churning 33% from the field.  The field of contenders in the West is crowded, so they can't afford to continue to stall much longer.  They are now closer to the 8th seed than the 2nd seed.
Result: With Dirk back in the line-up the Mavs should be fine.  It would help if they could find someone to take Butler's expiring contract to add another useful piece, and you know Mark Cuban will be aggressive in persuing anything that could improve the teams chances to win.  They won't catch the Spurs for the division, but should be good enough for a top 4 seed and will be a tough opponent in the playoffs. 

Denver Nuggets - B-
Right: As it stands now anyway, the Nuggest are in the playoff race (currently 7th in the West).  They also have one of the game's elite scorers in Carmelo Anthony, who continues to improve his game by averaging a career high in rebounds.  Billups got off to a slow start and shows signs of slowing down, but he's still a reliable veteran capable of running a contending team.  They have gotten surprisingly good play from role players like Arron Afflalo and Ty Lawson.  They are 3rd in the league in offensive efficiency and decent enough on defense.
Wrong: The 'Melo saga has dragged on all season and threatens to drag the team down with it.  As the rumor mill heats up it appears to be becoming more of a distraction, not just to 'Melo, but to the entire team.  If they keep him they will likely be a playoff team, but a longshot to come out of the West.  If they trade him they will likely fall out of the playoff race and be lottery bound, but if they keep him and let him walk away for nothing after the season then things could be even worse.
Result: One way or another, they need to wrap up the on going trade drama.  'Melo wants to go to NY, but NJ has the better offer on the table.  'Melo wants to cash in on a big money extension before the new CBA agreement kicks in this off-season, but claims he won't sign it unless he's traded to his destination of choice.  This whole thing is a mess.  He's expected to be traded somewhere before the deadline, in which case we could then assume Denver misses the playoffs.

Detroit Pistons - D+
Right: Rookie Greg Monroe has started to show some signs of improvement lately.  His minutes were limited early on, but have started to increase.  He may not be a star, but could be a solid big man.  Tracy McGrady has shown flashes of his old self at times, and while he can't sustain it over a long stretch they are probably getting more from him so far than what they could have hoped for.
Wrong: This roster is a mess.  Most of the core starting unit from their 2004 championship team are there (Hamilton, Prince, Wallace) but they are well past their prime.  The young guys like Rodney Stucky have failed to live up to expectations, along with last years free agent busts (Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva) that continue to clog their cap space.  They have swung and missed on too many bad contracts in the past few years that it could take years to climb out of this hole.
Result: There appears to be little chance for them to make the playoffs with this squad.  Their best bet is to try to pawn off some of those bad contracts to contending teams that are willing to overpay if it means improving their team (Dallas comes to mind).  Even if they get little in return, the cap savings will help them rebuild. 

Golden State Warriors - C+
Right: Now that the team has new owners and a new coach there finally appears to be hope for this franchise, but it won't lead to immediate success.  They have talented young players like Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry that have played great, making them an exciting team to watch.
Wrong: Despite playing at one of the league's fastest paces, they are in the bottom half of the league in offensive efficiency, along with being one of the worst defensive teams.  David Lee, the team's off-season big acquisition, has been a mild disappointment thus far while battling injuries and inconsistancy.  His numbers are down across the board.
Result: Curry is going to be a star.  The knock on Ellis had always been that his numbers were inflated by the excessive volume of shots he takes, but he's been more efficient this year, shooting 47% from the field.  Lee has the talent to get back to his previous levels of being a double-double machine.  With this young core they may not be ready to compete yet, but they could be a playoff team in the next couple of years.

Houston Rockets - C+
Right: Kevin Martin is having a great season.  He has a chance to become the first player ever to lead the league in both 3 pointers made and free throws made - an increadible accomplishment when you consider that most of the top 3 point shooters don't often drive to the hoop to get fouled and the Rockets don't typically run their offense through Martin.  Louis Scola is having a breakout sesason, establishing career highs in several categories.
Wrong: The loss of Yao has once again crippled this team, which was designed to be built around him.  They are too undersized without him to compete with teams that have a lot of length in their frontcourt.  They are a group of scrappy overachievers and they are a better team than what their record shows.  They have the best scoring margin (+0.7) of any team that currently doesn't hold a playoff spot and a better margin than several teams that are currently in a playoff spot (most those teams are in the East though). 
Result: If Portland's injuries continue to derail their season and if Denver blows up their team by trading Carmelo Anthony then Houston is one team capable of taking advantage by slipping into the playoffs as a lower seed.

Indiana Pacers - C
Right: Roy Hibbert got off to a strong start, and while he has hit a slump lately he has still shown signs of his potential to become a dominant big man.  Danny Granger has seen his scoring average drop a bit due to taking less shots per game than his career average, but he's still averaging over 21 points her game and his other numbers have remained consistant with recent seasons.
Wrong: Darren Collison has been a disappointment.  He lit up the league as a rookie last year for a brief stretch while filling in for the injured Chris Paul in New Orleans.  After being traded to Indiana before the season he was supposed to be flourish as the starting point guard, but has thus far regressed from his rookie season.  Part of the reason for his troubles may be due to coach Jim O'Brien's inconsistant rotations that haven't allowed Collison, or the rest of the team, to gell as a unit.  Collison has also been held to under 30 minutes per game, with the clearly inferior TJ Ford getting nearly 20 minutes of action.  Lately Collison's minutes have picked up, and so has his game.
Result: The Pacers currently hold the number 8 spot in the East, which is top heavy with a few dominant teams but drops off dramatically after the elite.  They may not end up winning more than half their games, yet still have a shot at the playoffs.

LA Clippers - C-
Right: Blake Griffin is going to run away with the Rookie of the Year award and deserves considertaion as an All-Star.  He has energized this team with his thunderous dunks and eye popping stat lines.  He has made the Clippers a team people actually want to watch and even inspired Baron Davis to wake up and show some effort on occasion.  Eric Gordon is another young player that has taken a big step forward this year, currently ranking 8th in the league in scoring (23.8).
Wrong: Well, it's the Clippers, so we have to expect things to go wrong.  They have a losing record for the year, but have played much better lately, winning 7 of their last 10.  Donald Sterling is the worst owner in sports, so unless the Clippers curse ruins Griffins career, you can count on Sterling to find another way to inadvertently destroy the young superstar's career or chase him out of town.
Result: The Clips are a fun team to watch, but still another year or two away from contending.  They need to upgrade the SF spot and if they can't get more out of veterans like Chris Kamon and Baron Davis then they need to try to move them out of the way to allow the young kids to flourish.

LA Lakers - A-
Right: They got off to a slow start but have heated up since and climbed back to the 2nd spot in the West.  Pau Gasol carried the team through the early part of the season by putting up MVP caliber numbers.  Andrew Bynum's return came just in time to allow Gasol's minutes to be scaled back a bit, as he was beginning to look a bit worn out.  Kobe is having another sensational season, putting up the kind of numbers you would expect by changing his game to fit a style more suited for this stage of his career when his legs have racked up plenty of mileage. 
Wrong: They aren't getting much out of the point guard spot from Fisher or Blake.  Ron Artest is still able to be a lock down defender, but on the offensive end he is close to becoming a liability.  Kobe's shots per game are actually slightly down from previous years, but he's also playing less minutes.  There have been a few games where he has shown signs of the "old Kobe" where he would try to take over games by himself instead of playing within the team.  Pau Gasol called him out for it after one such game, so if it continues then it may threaten the chemistry of the team.
Result: We know the Lakers will be in the playoffs, but it probably won't be as the top seed like most expected.  They are 6 games back of the Spurs, which may be too much ground to make up at this point given how well the Spurs are playing.  They will still finish near the top of the West and should see another deep playoff run.  Given that they have already played in three straight Finals you have to wonder if the team will run out of gas before getting out of the West, especially if they have to win on the road in San Antonio.

Memphis Grizzlies - C
Right: Rudy Gay is having a phenominal season and appears to be living up to his big contract so far.  Zach Randolph is following up last year's resurgant season with another strong performance.  The Grizzlies are the only other team, along with the Rockets, to not be in a current playoff spot despite a positive point differential.
Wrong: Marc Gasol has taken a slight step back from last year's break out season, averaging 3 points and 2 rebounds less per game.  His back-up, and last years #2 overall draft pick, Hasheem Thabeet, has been even worse this year than his rookie season, which was widly considered a bust.  His miserable 3.44 PER and -1.0 EWA make him the worst center in the league.
Result: Their record is below .500 and there are several teams ahead of them for a playoff spot, but they are close enough and have enough talent that they have a chance to slip into the playoffs if a couple of the teams above them trail off in the second half.

Miami Heat - A-
Right: The best part of their season happened over the summer when they united the trinity of LeBron, Wade and Bosh.  On paper they seem unstoppable, but it took a while for them to learn how to play together.  They got off to as slow start at 9-8 before finding themselves and going on a 22-1 streak.  LeBron and Wade initially seemed uncomfortable playing together, as if they were hesitant about who would take control in certain situations.  Once they worked out the kinks they began to dominate as expected.  The stat lines for the big three are down for each of their career averages, but it was expected they would each see some decline as their usage rates would all drop while playing together.  Arguably, their numbers haven't dropped as much as expected and LeBron and Wade both are in the mix for MVP candidates.  The Heat rank in the top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which no other team can claim.
Wrong: Their roster is paper thin, so they can't afford to have players go into slumps or get injured.  Losing Haslem for the season is a big loss for a team that lacks size and rebounding.  Mike Miller missed the early part of the season with a hand injury.  He's back now, but has struggled to fit into the rotation thus far and contributed far less than expected.  Their starting center, Joel Anthony, has a miserable PER of only 7.71 and an Estimated Wins Added mark of -1.1, making him one of the 5 worst centers in the league.  Their other big man options of Dampier and Big Z aren't much better.
Result: The Heat's style of play should help them coast through the rest of the regular season and give them a good shot at winning their division and perhaps even the top seed in the East.  However, there are some questions about how this style will work in the playoffs.  They may have match-up problems against teams with dominant big men, such as Boston, Orlando and the Lakers - all teams they may need to face en route to a championship.  The Heat have had had relatively good luck in terms of health for their three star players, but the way this team is built they can't afford to lose any of those three.  The Heat are 0-4 this season when at least one of the trio does not play.  If any of them were to miss an extended period of time then the ship may sink quickly.

Milwaukee Bucks - C
Right: Andrew Bogut has recovered from last year's gruesome elbow injury and has averaged a double-double while leading the league in blocks.  Brandon Jennings is building on his impressive rookie campaign.  He's still far from the most accurate shooter in the game, but he has improved his field goal percentage to be closer to the 40% mark this year, which has helped edge his scoring up by a couple of points per game.
Wrong: So much for Fear the Deer.  Last year's surprising surge at the end of the season made them a team nobody wanted to face in the playoffs, at least until Bogut got hurt and killed their chances.  Despite getting Bogat back, they haven't reclaimed the magic of last season.  Last year the Bucks were one of the worst teams in the league at getting to the free throw line, so they brought in Corey Magette to help.  He has gotten to the line more than 5 times per game, but aside from that hasn't been much help.  Only Cleveland has been worse on offense than the Bucks.
Result: Perhaps another 2nd half run will get them back into the postseason, but it may require another trade deadline shake up to do it.  Or maybe getting back a healthy Carlos Delfino, who has missed most of the season with a concussion, combined with getting players like Maggette and Salmons to play to their potential will be enough to get by.

Minnesota Timberwolves - D
Right: Kevin Love is a beast.  He's easily leading the league in rebounds (15.6) and became the first player since Moses Malone to record over 30 points and 30 rebounds in a game.  He's top 7 in the league in both PER (24.32) and EWA (10.1).  Michael Beasley is having a break out season in his first year it 'Sota.  They were able to obtain him for only a 2nd round pick during Miami's firesale to gut their roster this summer and his production has far surpassed the price they paid for him.
Wrong: Still no Ricky Rubio and Johnny Flynn might be the worst point guard in the league (4.77 PER).  So last year's draft didn't go so well.  This year's rookie, Wesley Johnson, has been a little better but doesn't look like he'll develop into anything more than a role player.
Result: The T'Wolves are still one the worst teams in the league, but at least the duo of Love and Beasley makes them watchable again.  Now that coach Rambis has smartened up and given Love the minutes he deserves he's reaching his All-Star potential, which is the silver lining for the season.  They have no shot at the playoffs and will probably get another high lottery pick which they will inevitably whiff on, then try to cover up with more botched free agent signings.  KAAAAHHHNNN!

New Jersey Nets - D
Right: Well, they aren't the worst team in the league this year and aren't on pace to break any records for futility, so that's a start.  Rookie Derek Favors has shown glimpses of his potential, and while he still has a long way to go he should eventually develop into a very good player.
Wrong: The season has been overshadowed by the drama of a potential trade for Carmelo Anthony.  Recently the Nets billionaire Russian owner announced the team was pulling out of trade discussions because they had gone on too long and become a distraction.  That and he had been given no indication that 'Melo was willing to sign an extension with them.  All that hype and rumor swirling for nothing.  Brook Lopez has taken a big step back this year and the team must be wondering if he can be counted on to be the cornerstone player they thought he would become.  His rebounding is the biggest concern.  After averaging over 8 boards per game in his first two seasons he has regressed to under 6 per game, a troubling sign for a starting center.
Result: They may improve over last year's disaster, but they are still a long way from being a good team.  The lure of their eventual move to Brooklyn and an owner willing to spend will help them in the future, but has done nothing for them this season.

New Orelans Hornets - B
Right: The Hornets got off to a fast start by winning 11 of their first 12 games.  Chris Paul is healthy and back to being at the top of the list of elite point guards.  He's 2nd in the league in PER (25.55) and should be in the MVP discussion as long as the team remains a contender.
Wrong: After CP3 and David West the Hornets roster doesn't have much to offer.  None of the Hornets wing players has even been average.  Trevor Ariza leads the group of busts with a PER of 10.61 and is only shooting 38% from the field.  This is the guy they traded for to shake things up and convince CP3 to stay?
Result: This team will go as far as Chris Paul can carry them.  As long as he is healthy he will get them to the playoffs, but a 2nd round exit may be their ceiling if he doesn't get more help.

New York Knicks - B
Right: Amare Stoudemire has re-energized the city and the team with his MVP caliber play.  He is second in the league in points and if he can sustain his level of 2.3 blocks per game then it would be a career high.  Raymond Felton has flourished in D'Antoni's offense and is putting up All-Star worthy numbers (over 17 points, 8 assists).  Wilson Chandler has had a break out season and Landry Fields has been the steal of the draft.  Picked in the second round last summer, Fields has arguably been one of the 5 best rookies in this year's class.  He leads all guards in rebound rate by collecting 12.9% of available rebounds when he's in the game.
Wrong: Danilo Gallinari hasn't taken the step forward the team had hopped.  With the added weapons around him they don't necessarily need him to increase his scoring, but his shooting percentage, particularly from beyond the arc, has declined each season he's been in the league.
Result: Considering the turmoil this franchise has had to dig itself out of over the past decade, it's hard for Knicks fans to find anything to complain about now that they finally have a team that will make the playoffs.  Their excitement could boil over if they are able to land Carmelo Anthony (more likely now that the Nets have supposedly pulled out).  They would have to give up a lot of promising talent to acquire him though, so as well as they Knicks are playing now is it really worth blowing up the team to get him now when they may be able to acquire him as free agent in the off season?  That boils down to if they want to gamble on how much 'Melo really wants to be in NY versus how much he wants the extra money he can get by accepting an extension before the new CBA deal is set.  It's a risky decision and the team better hope the uncertainty doesn't drag them down as the season progresses.

Oklahoma City Thunder - B+
Right: Kevin Durant is well on his way to another scoring title.  He was expected to be an MVP candidate, and while he may still be, so far he might not even have been the best player on his own team.  Russell Westbrook has exploded this season for 22.5 points, 5.0 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game, giving the Thunder one of the best one-two punches in the game.  Both rank in the top 12 in the league in PER and EWA.  Serge Ibaka has given them the inside defensive presence they have lacked in recent years.
Wrong: They got off to a bit of a slow start due to an injury and some shooting struggles for Durant, but he's turned things around and is back to his elite level of play.  Jeff Green has been inconsistent and the team will need to make a decision in the near future about whether it's worth the money to keep him as part of this young core.
Result: The Thunder are one of the best young teams on the rise. Last year they got a taste of the postseason and are looking to build on that this year.  They should be a higher seed this year, giving them a better chance of advancing to at least the second round.  They may not have met the high expectations that some (including myself) predicted for them, but they are in good shape so far.

Orlando Magic - B+
Right: GM Otis Smith was concerned that they would be unable to win a title with their current roster, so he shocked the league by blowing up a potential contender mid-season in the midst of a streak where they had lost 8 out of 9 games.  Two separate deals with the Suns and Wizards sent multiple players each way.  Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis were shipped out to bring in Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson and Hedu Turkoglu.  It was a bold move, but after some initial chemistry issues early on, which was to be expected for a team being re-built on the fly, they were able to gel and are working there way back to being one of the elite teams in the East.
Wrong: The big trades were a plus for the team, but could they also be a minus?  Arenas is a wild card that they may not be able to rely on to behave and/or stay healthy.  Turkoglu disappointed in Toronto and Phoenix, so it's a reach to assume he can get back to the level he was at when he left Orlando a couple of years ago.  They also traded back-up center Marcin Gortat in the deal with Phoenix, leaving them dangerously thin in the front court behind Dwight Howard.  That puts a lot of pressure on D12 to not only carry the load, but to stay on the court.  As he continues to pile up technical fouls due to the league's ridiculous new "respect the game" rules he is in danger of missing at least one game due to a suspension if he reaches 16 for the season.
Result: With perennial defensive player of the year candidate Dwight Howard roaming the court the Magic will always be a force to be reckoned with.  D12 has also worked on his post moves, spending time with Hall of Famer Hakeem Olajuwon this summer, and it's shown so far.  Now if only he could work on those free throws!  They are in a tough race for the division title, but will make the playoffs at least and could potentially make a deep run in the postseason.

Philadelphia 76ers - C
Right: Elton Brand has bounced back for his past couple years of mediocrity to post respectable numbers.  He'll never live up to that awful contract, but at least they are getting something out of him.  Their young point guard Jrue Holiday is showing signs of a break out. He needs to be more consistent, but he looks like he will be a good player.
Wrong: Andre Iguodala is having a poor season by his standards.  He's dropped a few points per game off his career average, in part because he's shooting career low percentages from the field (43.6) and free throw line (66.7).  Injuries are partly to blame, but he needs to get it together.  He's miscast as a number one option out of necessity for a team that doesn't have a top option on offense.  Rookie Evan Turner has been a bit of a bust so far.  There are 22 other rookies with a higher PER than his 9.11 and his -0.7 EWA is tied for worst among the rookie class.  He has shown flashes of his potential, but most of that has come at times when Iggy was out of the line-up, supporting the theory many had on draft day that those two don't fit well together.
Result: Since the bottom of the East is so bad the 76ers find themselves as one of the bad teams that may make the playoffs.  They might as well try, since clearly tanking for a higher draft pick doesn't necessarily help.

Phoenix Suns - C-
Right: Steve Nash is about the only bright spot in the desert these days.  At age 36 he's having one of his best seasons, with a PER in the top 10 in the league (24.02).  Because of Nash the Suns are 4th in the league in offensive efficiency.
Wrong: Unfortunately, they are also last in defensive efficiency.  For a team that made the Western Finals last year they have fallen fast.  They let Stoudemire walk and replaced him with bad contracts like Josh Childress and Hakim Warrick.  They corrected the mistake of trading for Turkoglu by shipping him off to Orlando, but it cost them Jason Richardson.  It's amazing that Nash still gets double digit assists given the option he is stuck passing to these days.
Results: The Suns need to re-build, and with that comes the hardest decision of all - what to do with Nash.  He's the face of the franchise and the only reason left for fans to show up for games.  He's too classy a guy to try to force his way out and seems willing to stick it out for the team he agreed to sign with.  Still, it's a shame to see a talent like him waste his remaining years on a team going nowhere.  For Phoenix, he has a large contract and is their only valuable trading asset.  He could command a large ransom in young players, expiring contracts and draft picks if he were to be made available.  It's a very tough situation, but at this point trading him seems like the right thing for both sides.

Portland Trailblazers - B-
Right: LaMarcus Aldridge is having the best season of his career and established himself as one of the top 10 power forwards in the league.  Wes Matthews is showing why Portland gave him so much money to get him there and Nicolas Batum has been great at times (although those two never seem to play well during the same stretches, partly because they take minutes away from each other). 
Wrong: Injuries have once again destroyed this team.  Greg Oden will miss the entire season.... again.  He's played a total of 82 games in his 4 year career.  Brandon Roy's season is in doubt as well.  He's been out for about a month with a bad knee that will never be the same.  They also just lost Marcus Camby for at least a month. 
Result: Despite the never ending string of injuries, the Blazers are clinging to the 8th seed in the West.  Eventually the loss of players will result in more losses in games, giving other teams a chance to leap over them to take their playoff spot.  They should consider trading away some pieces that don't factor into their long term plans, such as Andre Miller.

Sacramento Kings - F
Right: Not much has gone right for the Kings so far, which explains why they find themselves in the cellar of the Western Conference.  At least DeMarcus Cousins has shown enough potential to expect him to become a valuable big man in the near future, but he needs to cut down on the attitude and fouls.
Wrong: Tyreke Evans has taken a step back after his Rookie of the Year campaign.  Injuries are partially to blame, as he's attempted to play through a variety of injuries, but his shot selection also needs work.  His .461 True Shooting Percentage is one of the worst in the league for point guards.
Result: If they keep getting high lottery picks every year then they have to become good eventually, right?

San Antonio Spurs - A+
Right: The biggest surprise of the season might be how dominant the Spurs have been.  We knew they would likely be a playoff team, but most expected the aging group of veterans to coast into one of the lower seeds in the West and try to get by on their experience in the playoffs.  To our surprise, they have easily been the best team in the regular season so far and appear to be in a good position to lock up the top seed in either conference.  Even more surprising is how they have gone about doing it.  Led by Tim Duncan, the Spurs have always been a team that won on the defensive end.  On offense they were... well, a bit boring.  Not anymore.  The offense no longer runs through Duncan (although he can still turn it up when needed) and instead goes through Tony Parker and Manu Ginoblli, who is having his best season.  They have turned into a high scoring offense that also leads the league in offensive efficiency.
Wrong: Hard to find anything wrong with a team that only has 6 losses to this point and leads the league in point differential.  One potential flaw could be with Richard Jefferson.  He got off to a good start, helping people forget last season's miserable year where he seemed lost on his new team.  Over the past month he has regressed back to last year's woes.  He needs to get back to how he played earlier in the season.
Result: The Spurs should get the top seed in the West.  They play so well at home that having home court through the playoffs could mean another title is in their future.

Toronto Raptors - D
Right: Andrea Bargnani has stepped up his game by averaging a career high 21.5 points per game.  He's the top option for Toronto these days, for lack of a better option.  Rookie Ed Davis got a late start to the season, but has given steady production in limited minutes.  Surprisingly, he is 2nd among rookies in PER (15.89)
Wrong: Since Chris Bosh departed over the summer, the Raptors are left without a star player to build around.  Bargnani is a former #1 overall pick, but he lacks star power and isn't the type of dominant player that can carry a team.
Result: Canada's team is rebuilding in the post-Bosh era and will hope for a high lottery pick this summer.

Utah Jazz - B
Right: Deron Williams is having an outstanding season and is in the select group at the top of the elite point guards in the league.  Paul Milsap has stepped up to fill the void by the departure of Carlos Boozer.  With the addition of Al Jefferson, their front court is even more formidable than before despite losing their All-Star power forward.
Wrong: Mehmet Okur has missed most of the season due to injury and hasn't played well since his return.  His time on the court has been limited so far, but even on a per minute basis his numbers are down across the board.  Their bench is pretty depleted after an off-season that saw some key rotation players move on and their replacements haven't done enough to fill the void.
Result: The Jazz are right in the middle of a pack of contending teams where only half a game separates the 3 seed from the 6 seed.  They have a lot of work to do if they hope to move higher than that, but they should be able to stay within their current range at least.

Washington Wizards - D

Right: John Wall has energized the team with his exciting style of play by averaging over 15 points and 9 assists, while ranking in the top 10 in the league in steals.  If Blake Griffin weren't already running away with the award then Wall would deserve some consideration.  The biggest success of the season may have been finding someone to take Gilbert Arenas when they traded him to Orlando for Rashard Lewis.  It's essentially a swap of bad contracts, but both players badly needed a change of scenery and the Wizards can now wash their hands of Arenas and move on from the gun related drama he put them through last year.
Wrong: The Wizards are competing to be one of the 5 worst teams in the league.  They have been respectable in front of their home fans, but are a miserable 0-20 on the road, the only team in the league that hasn't won a road game.
Result: They have a good young nucleus with Wall, Andre Blatche and JaVale McGee that they can build around, but it will take time for the kids to grow up and they need to add some other pieces around them before they can hope to contend for a playoff spot.

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