The starting line-ups for this year's NBA All-Star game were announced this week, and for once they actually came close to getting it right. The starters are voted on by the fans, with the reserves being picked by head coaches next week.
It's hard to argue with any of the choices in the Eastern Conference. Miami Heat teammates Dwyane Wade and LeBron James will join Bulls point guard Derek Rose, Knicks forward Amare Stoudemire and Magic center Dwight Howard. The group includes 3 of the top 5 scorers in the league, the league's best defensive beast and perhaps the most improved player in the league. The 5 starters also rank within the top 15 players in the league in PER. Each of them is not only deserving of their All-Star selection, but they also will all deserve mention in the MVP race.
There aren't many legitimate gripes with these selections, as LeBron, Wade and Howard were all obvious choices. Stoudemire and Rose come from behind early voting polls to narrowly surpass Celtics stars Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo. While their superior defense and team record puts them in the conversation, each of the Celtics players missed several games with injuries, making the decision for fans a bit easier to justify leaving them out of the starting line-up. They will both likely make the team as reserves, but even with my Boston bias, I can't complain about these selections.
Out West they came so close to avoiding controversy by making worthy selections for 4 out of the 5 starters. Chris Paul is deserving of his spot, as he widely considered to be at the top of the list of elite point guards in the league and is 2nd in the NBA in PER. Despite playing reduced minutes (33 MPG), Kobe Bryant hasn't suffered much of a drop in production and he's 5th in the league in PER, so you can't claim that reputation carried him here. Kevin Durant leads the league in scoring while Carmelo Anthony remains in the top 10 in scoring while also improving his rebounding to a career high 8 per game.
The one fly in the ointment for this unit is the starting center, Yao Ming. Every year that he's on the ballot, Yao gets voted in as a starter thanks to the billions of people from his native China that vote for him, despite that most of them don't actually watch the games or even realize that he's out for the season due to an injury that has limited him to only 5 uneventful games this season. His inclusion in this line-up is a mockery of the system, but one that over the years we've come to grudgingly deal with - at least until they finally agree to make changes to the voting system to prevent this from happening. I like that fans get to vote, since the All-Star game is after all a game for the fans. However, maybe the impact of their vote needs to be minimized, with the other players, coaches or media getting a say in the selections as well. It's not fair that a player's legacy or potential Hall of Fame chances may be impacted by some misguided and uninformed voters.
The silver lining of the votes for Yao is that NBA commissioner David Stern now gets to choose a replacement for the injured center, which hopefully will make up for the voters mistake. Had the votes from China not factored in then we likely would have been stuck with another undeserving starter due to the leagues outdated balloting procedure that requires voters to select a true "center." The lack of candidates that actually fit this description out West would likely have meant we'd be stuck with a selection of Andrew Bynum, as his popularity as a Laker would likely carry him to the top of a list of underwhelming options. With Stern able to make the selection instead, we can at least hope he'll have the sense to make a more deserving selection, such as Pau Gasol, who has often played the center position, but is listed on the ballot as a forward.
This is just another example that supports the theory that the current process of being forced to select 2 guards, 2 forwards and a center is outdated and unreasonable. Instead, they should change it to a vote that selects 1 point guard, 2 wings (SG or SF) and 2 bigs (PF or C). This eliminates a situation where we could conceivably have a line-up that lacks a point guard, the primary ball handler. It also means that we'd be allowed to pick from a much deeper pool of forwards, many of whom are capable of filling in at center. Taking Yao out of the equation, we'd be better off selecting someone like Gasol or Tim Duncan as a starter over struggling to justify a pick for Bynum or Tyson Chandler.
An interesting note about the starters is that none of the star players from either of the top seeds in each conference (Spurs, Celtics) are represented in the starting line-up. That will most likely be rectified with the coaches votes for the reserves, with Rondo, Garnett, Pierce, and Ginobili looking like solid bets to make the team. Tim Duncan is having a down year due to limited minutes and a change in offensive philosophy that takes him away from being the main option, but he's still the most important player on the league's best team, so if he makes it on reputation then we can't really complain. Tony Parker and Ray Allen each have an outside shot of sneaking in as well, especially if injury replacements are needed.
The reserves won't be announced for about another week, but just for fun, I've listed below my choices for who should be selected to join the starters for the game in Los Angeles. When the coaches vote they have a little more flexibility in terms of the positions they select, so I'll list my choices under the categories of the previously mentioned system of point guards, wings and bigs.
East:
Point Guards: Rajon Rondo, Raymond Felton
Wings: Paul Pierce, Josh Smith
Bigs: Al Horford, Kevin Garnett, Chris Bosh
Apologies to: Carlos Boozer, Ray Allen, Danny Granger
West
Point Guards: Deron Williams, Steve Nash, Russell Westbrook
Wings: Manu Ginobili, Rudy Gay
Bigs: Kevin Love, Dirk Nowitzki, Pau Gasol* (should replace Yao as a starter)
Apologies to: Tim Duncan, Monta Ellis, Kevin Martin, Blake Griffin
Friday, January 28, 2011
Monday, January 24, 2011
NFL Conference Weekend
The final four teams remaining paired up to face off for the Conference Championship games to fight for the right to advance to the big dance in Dallas. The ultimate goal for any NFL franchise is to win the Super Bowl, but to even get the chance to get there they have to win this weekend first.
Here are some things that I noticed this week:
Green Bay Packers defeat Chicago Bears
Here are some things that I noticed this week:
Green Bay Packers defeat Chicago Bears
- This game looked like it would be a blowout win for the Packers after they took a 14-0 lead early in the second quarter, but the Packers offense stalled after that and they weren't able to put the game out of reach. The Packers did not score again until there were only 6 minutes remaining in the game, and that TD was an interception returned by the defense. As woeful as the Bears offense was, the inability to add more to the scoreboard kept the Bears in the game all the way until the end.
- Aaron Rodgers had 28 TDs and only 11 INTs for the season. He had at least one TD in all but one game (Week 8 win over the Jets), excluding the game he left early and the following week that he missed due to a concussion. He didn't have more than 2 INTs in any game this season. In this game he had 0 TDs and 2 INTs.
- Greg Jennings had a big day (8 cathces, 130 yards), accumulating more than half of the team's receiving yards. 9 Packers players caught a pass, but only Jennings and Jordy Nelson caught more than one.
- Veteran Donald Driver had only 1 catch for 9 yards despite being tied for 2nd on the team with 5 targets.
- Rookie CB Sam Shields is my pick for player of the game for his two interceptions, including the one that clinched victory for the Packers when the Bears were driving deep into their territory for a potential game tying TD with under a minute to play.
- Jay Cutler got off to a terrible start (6/18 passing for 80 yards and an INT) before leaving with a knee injury in the 3rd quarter.
- Nobody can ever question a player for sitting out with an injury because we have no way of knowing the extent of the injury or how much pain they are in. Yet many are quick to judge Cutler for not even attempting to come back into the game. Is there good reason for this? Perhaps you can make that argument, considering Cutler was not seen being attended to by the team's medical staff, was not on crutches or even sitting down. He stood on the sidelines pouting and didn't even make an attempt to consult with his replacements to help them out. Typically a backup QB holds a clipboard and acts somewhat like an assistant on the sidelines, but not Cutler. Maybe it's not fair to judge his injury, but regardless of how hurt he was, isn't it fair to question if he quit on his team?
- After the injury, Cutler was replaced by Todd Collins. He was 0/4 passing before being benched for Caleb Hanie, who despite being far from brilliant, proved to be the Bears most competent QB that day and nearly led them to a comeback.
- Granted Hanie also threw two Interceptions, one of which was returned for a TD and was the difference in the game. The other Interception ended the game. Yet he was still better than Cutler!
- Led by Brian Urlacher, the Bears said all the right things in support of Cutler while verifying the legitimacy of his injury. It would be interesting to hear if they are saying the same behind closed doors. We may find out in the off-season if the Bears consider making a change.
- ESPN reported this afternoon that Cutler has a torn MCL. If that's true then it's understandable why he didn't re-enter the game. It also means the Bears may have no choice but to consider other options for next year, as Cutler may not be ready to play by then.
- The Jets came out flat in the first half and appeared like they had used up all their energy the previous week in New England. Or maybe they wasted too much energy on trash talking. Either way, they were a step too slow in the first half and ended up behind 24-3.
- I'd like to know what Rex Ryan said at halftime, because we saw a totally different team in the second half. The Jets dominated the rest of the way, but they had dug themselves too big of a hole and fell short in the end.
- The Jets had a great chance to get back into the game mid-way through the 4th quarter, but were stuffed at the 1 inch line on 4th and goal. Should they have gone for a field goal instead? That would have only cut the lead to 4, meaning they'd still need another TD and might not even get the ball back. Even though they failed on 4th down, they forced a safety on the next play when Roethlisberger mishandled the snap with no room to operate in. At that stage of the game those 2 points were worth just about the same as a 3 point FG would have been, plus they got the ball back in good field position after the safety forced the Steelers to punt it back to them. So considering they followed that with a quick TD score to pull within 5, the failed 4th down attempt may have been the best thing that could have happened for the Jets!
- Unfortunately for the Jets, they never got the ball back after that. Despite that there were over 3 minutes left and they had all their timeouts remaining, the vaunted Jets defense was unable to prevent the Steelers from making two first downs, which allowed them to run out the clock.
- Credit the Steelers for being bold at the end of the game. Most teams would have called all running plays to force the other team to use their timeouts. If they weren't able to pick up a first down on the drive they'd punt the ball away and hope their defense could hold a lead with less than two minutes remaining. Both first downs the Steelers picked up were on passing plays, which the Jets clearly did not see coming. Had they thrown an incompletion it would have stopped the clock and preserved another one of those Jets timeouts, a risk many teams would not take.
- Mark Sanchez outperformed Ben Roethlisberger by a wide margin, but still lost:
- Sanchez: 233 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 102.2 rating
- Roethlisberger: 133 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 35.5 rating
- The Jets combo of Revis and Cromartie shut down the Steelers top receivers. Hines Ward and Mike Wallace combined for only 3 catches for 20 yards.
- The Jets had the 3rd best rush defense in the league this year, yet Rashard Mendenhall rung up 121 yards against them.
- Tight Ends Dustin Keller and Heath Miller were each the leading receivers for their teams.
- The Steelers will move on to their 3rd Super Bowl appearance in the past 6 seasons. If they win then Roethlisberger will move into a tie with Tom Brady for most Super Bowl victories among active Quarterbacks.
- In a related note, I'll be rooting for the Packers to win the Super Bowl.
- We have two weeks off before the big game. At least we have the Pro-Bowl in between to get our weekly football fix. Oh wait, nobody watches the Pro-Bowl. That's no surprise, considering the players from the two Super Bowl teams can't even participate and most of the other top players find an excuse to skip the game as well. I think Matt Cassel is starting for the AFC. Doesn't exactly get you excited, does it?
- Super Bowl XLV is less than 2 weeks away. Get your party plans ready!
Thursday, January 20, 2011
NBA Mid-Season Grades
While the All-Star game is still a few weeks away, we are just about at the halfway point of the season with all teams in the league going over the 40 game mark for the season this week. With that in mind it's time to take a look at each team to rate how they have done in the first half of the season.
Atlanta Hawks - B+
Right: The Hawks have gotten off to a surprisingly good start considering many expected a slight decline this season while their division rivals improved. Yet they find themselves in the thick of the Southeast division race. Al Horford has taken another big step forward to establish himself as one of the best young big men in the East.
Wrong: After signing the biggest max contract of the summer, Joe Johnson has seen his numbers decline a bit. Part of that may be attributed to playing in a new system, which focuses more on ball movement rather than the old "Iso-Joe" offense that allowed him to control the ball more. His usage rate has dropped as other teammates have gotten more involved. He also struggled early with an elbow injury that cost him 7 games, but since his return he's started to turn things around and has played better over the past month.
Result: Johnson's 6 year, $119 million deal may cripple the team in the long term, but the outlook for this season remains strong. Unfortunately they share a division with two of the top teams in the East, so overcoming both Miami and Orlando may prove to be too much of a challenge. They'll make the playoffs, but may have to settle for a 5 or 6 seed, which could mean a first round exit.
Boston Celtics - A
Right: Another strong start pushed Boston out to a 23-5 start through Christmas. Paul Pierce is playing as well as ever by being the most reliable scoring option and using his all around game to contribute in many other areas as well. Rajon Rondo has become an elite point guard, leading the league in assist by a wide margin (13.4). Ray Allen is closing in on the league record for career 3 point field goals made and KG has looked like he has his legs back under him again. They continue to win with veteran savvy and suffocating defense (2nd in Defensive Efficiency). "Big Baby" Davis is a contender for 6th man of the year. He has thrived as the main option off the bench. When KG was injured he was forced to step into the starting line-up where he struggled a bit. He forced too many shots, which isn't necessary when the 1st unit is loaded with so many other options. He seems more comfortable leading the 2nd unit, so the team needs to stay healthy in order to allow him to thrive in that role.
Wrong: As many predicted, injuries has been the one flaw capable of derailing this team from championship aspirations. Kendrick Perkins still hasn't played this season while recovering from off-season knee surgery. Delonte West has barely played thanks to a 10 game suspension which was followed by a wrist injury that still has him out of the line-up. Jermaine O'Neal has barely played and will be out at least another month. Most damaging has been the chunks of games missed by Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo. Pierce and Allen have been healthy so far (knock on wood), but at their age there are legitimate concerns over how much longer they can hold up. They need more rest, but can't afford to take it with the rest of the line-up being so depleted. They have a lot of depth at the big man positions, but need to keep them all healthy if they hope to improve in the rebounding stats. They are in the bottom half of the league in rebound rate and dead last in rebounds per game. That last stat can be misleading, as their rebound totals are impacted by their slow pace. Their lack of offensive rebounds is what drags them down, but that is influenced by their league best True Shooting Percentage and their team philosophy of getting back on defense to prevent transition baskets for the other team rather than crashing the boards to get offensive rebounds. Nonetheless, their rebounding needs to improve to compete with teams that have dominant big men such as the Magic, Lakers and Spurs.
Result: They have the best record in the East so far, but we've seen this before. It's amazing how they've managed to keep winning games despite all the injuries. When they finally get everyone healthy they can finally start to form some chemistry on their bench, which would make them even more dangerous. They play in arguable the worst division in the league, so they are a near lock to win the Atlantic Division, which guarantees them at least a top 4 seed in the playoffs. If they can get healthy (a big if) they have a great chance to get the top seed and make a deep playoff run, potentially even a title run.
Charlotte Bobcats - C-
Right: It's hard to figure what direction the Cats are going in. They have a few pieces that hold some value as trade assets, such as Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace, but neither is a player they can build around. They don't have much in terms of young talent to rebuild with outside of Tyrus Thomas, who has been held back for the most part this year. The departure of Larry Brown could change that, as they've already started playing better since the coaching change.
Wrong: They have been starting Kwame Brown at center lately, doesn't that say enough? The former number one bust isn't even their biggest worry. Captain Jack and Wallace have both declined from their former All-Star levels and their supporting cast isn't good enough to support them as a contender. In recent years they have been one of the better defensive teams, but it's yet to be seen if that will continue without Brown as the coach. They are one of the worst offensive teams in the league, which doesn't seem likely to change no matter who the coach is.
Result: They seem to be in no man's land. They have a shot at the 8th seed in the East due to the lack of depth in the conference, but would be almost a lock as an early first round exit, just like last year. If they miss the playoffs they probably wouldn't even get a high draft pick without a little luck in the lottery. Their best bet is to blow things up by trading S-Jax and Wallace for younger, cheaper talent and draft picks and hope for a high lottery pick in the draft that they can build upon. Then hope that Michael Jordan can use his legacy to charm some free agents into joining them. Good luck with that.
Chicago Bulls - A-
Right: Derek Rose has taken his game to another level by averaging nearly 25 points per game and 8 assists while improving his long range shot (1.6 3PM) and doing a better job of getting to the free throw line (81% on 6 FTA per game). He's led the Bulls to first in their division and put himself in the middle of the MVP debate. Carlos Boozer has proved to be the inside presence they needed when they signed him as free agent this summer, but he's missed a lot of games with injuries. He needs to stay healthy and the Bulls need to continue to get solid contributions from players like Deng and Gibson to take some of the strain of carrying the team off of Rose. New coach Tom Thibodeau has turned them into the top team in the league in defensive efficiency, which is really saying something considering their top two players - Rose and Boozer - aren't known for their defense and Joakim Noah has missed a lot of time with injury.
Wrong: They haven't had both Boozer and Noah healthy at the same time for long enough to develop chemistry. They need both of them to be at their best, with Boozer being an offensive threat and Noah being the defensive anchor. They are also lacking enough threats from outside shooters, ranking in the bottom third in the league in 3 point attempts and the bottom half in 3 point percentage. Keith Bogans may be one of the worst players in the league to have a starting spot, with a PER of only 7.11. Ronnie Brewer and Kyle Korver haven't been much better off the bench behind him.
Result: They have a 10 game margin in the standings over Indiana for the lead in their division, so one of the top seeds in the East is a virtual lock. They are good enough to win a first round series, but probably not more than that. They are still a piece or two away from being a title contender. They would love to make a trade to upgrade their SG spot, preferably a shooter.
Cleveland Caveliers - F
Right: You have to feel bad for Cleveland for how they were treated last summer when LeBron took his talents to South Beach and left the Cavs in ruins. There is not a lot of hope left with this team. One of the few bright spots had been the improved play of Anderson Varejao, but now he's out for the season with an injury. At least they still have passionate fans that show up just to boo LeBron, but even his much anticipated return became a disaster for the Cavs.
Wrong: Now it's easy to see why LeBron was the MVP the past two years. They have the same core that they had last season, but subtract LeBron and the team goes from the best record in the East to the worst. They are the worst team in the league in offensive efficiency and next to last in defensive efficiency.
Their -11.3 point differential is by far the worst in the league and they are on a miserable 13 game losing streak.
Result: It's not really their fault. The Cavs did all they could to surround LeBron with the right pieces over the past couple of years to try to win a title with him and convince him to stay, but it backfired. Now they are left with a roster full of roll players that don't really fit without a Superstar to play with. This season is doomed. They hired a good coach and have good management at the top with an owner willing to spend (plus he's hellbent on winning a title before LeBron does, for whatever that's worth), which suggests they will rebound eventually, but it's going to take time.
Dallas Mavericks - B+
Right: The Mavs got off to a fast start to find themselves near the top of the West. Dirk Nowitzki may be having the best season of his career and Tyson Chandler is having a resurgant season as the physical rebounder and defender this team has lacked in the past.
Wrong: They hid a skid when Dirk got injured and the Mavs went a miserable 2-7 without him. He just returned and they need him to step back up to the level he had been at before the injury to carry this team. The season ending injury to Caron Butler hurts, but Shawn Marion has filled in admirably with his increased playing time. Jason Kidd is just as good as ever at distributing the ball, but he has started to decline in other areas. His scoring is down to single digits per game and he's shooting a stomach churning 33% from the field. The field of contenders in the West is crowded, so they can't afford to continue to stall much longer. They are now closer to the 8th seed than the 2nd seed.
Result: With Dirk back in the line-up the Mavs should be fine. It would help if they could find someone to take Butler's expiring contract to add another useful piece, and you know Mark Cuban will be aggressive in persuing anything that could improve the teams chances to win. They won't catch the Spurs for the division, but should be good enough for a top 4 seed and will be a tough opponent in the playoffs.
Denver Nuggets - B-
Right: As it stands now anyway, the Nuggest are in the playoff race (currently 7th in the West). They also have one of the game's elite scorers in Carmelo Anthony, who continues to improve his game by averaging a career high in rebounds. Billups got off to a slow start and shows signs of slowing down, but he's still a reliable veteran capable of running a contending team. They have gotten surprisingly good play from role players like Arron Afflalo and Ty Lawson. They are 3rd in the league in offensive efficiency and decent enough on defense.
Wrong: The 'Melo saga has dragged on all season and threatens to drag the team down with it. As the rumor mill heats up it appears to be becoming more of a distraction, not just to 'Melo, but to the entire team. If they keep him they will likely be a playoff team, but a longshot to come out of the West. If they trade him they will likely fall out of the playoff race and be lottery bound, but if they keep him and let him walk away for nothing after the season then things could be even worse.
Result: One way or another, they need to wrap up the on going trade drama. 'Melo wants to go to NY, but NJ has the better offer on the table. 'Melo wants to cash in on a big money extension before the new CBA agreement kicks in this off-season, but claims he won't sign it unless he's traded to his destination of choice. This whole thing is a mess. He's expected to be traded somewhere before the deadline, in which case we could then assume Denver misses the playoffs.
Detroit Pistons - D+
Right: Rookie Greg Monroe has started to show some signs of improvement lately. His minutes were limited early on, but have started to increase. He may not be a star, but could be a solid big man. Tracy McGrady has shown flashes of his old self at times, and while he can't sustain it over a long stretch they are probably getting more from him so far than what they could have hoped for.
Wrong: This roster is a mess. Most of the core starting unit from their 2004 championship team are there (Hamilton, Prince, Wallace) but they are well past their prime. The young guys like Rodney Stucky have failed to live up to expectations, along with last years free agent busts (Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva) that continue to clog their cap space. They have swung and missed on too many bad contracts in the past few years that it could take years to climb out of this hole.
Result: There appears to be little chance for them to make the playoffs with this squad. Their best bet is to try to pawn off some of those bad contracts to contending teams that are willing to overpay if it means improving their team (Dallas comes to mind). Even if they get little in return, the cap savings will help them rebuild.
Golden State Warriors - C+
Right: Now that the team has new owners and a new coach there finally appears to be hope for this franchise, but it won't lead to immediate success. They have talented young players like Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry that have played great, making them an exciting team to watch.
Wrong: Despite playing at one of the league's fastest paces, they are in the bottom half of the league in offensive efficiency, along with being one of the worst defensive teams. David Lee, the team's off-season big acquisition, has been a mild disappointment thus far while battling injuries and inconsistancy. His numbers are down across the board.
Result: Curry is going to be a star. The knock on Ellis had always been that his numbers were inflated by the excessive volume of shots he takes, but he's been more efficient this year, shooting 47% from the field. Lee has the talent to get back to his previous levels of being a double-double machine. With this young core they may not be ready to compete yet, but they could be a playoff team in the next couple of years.
Houston Rockets - C+
Right: Kevin Martin is having a great season. He has a chance to become the first player ever to lead the league in both 3 pointers made and free throws made - an increadible accomplishment when you consider that most of the top 3 point shooters don't often drive to the hoop to get fouled and the Rockets don't typically run their offense through Martin. Louis Scola is having a breakout sesason, establishing career highs in several categories.
Wrong: The loss of Yao has once again crippled this team, which was designed to be built around him. They are too undersized without him to compete with teams that have a lot of length in their frontcourt. They are a group of scrappy overachievers and they are a better team than what their record shows. They have the best scoring margin (+0.7) of any team that currently doesn't hold a playoff spot and a better margin than several teams that are currently in a playoff spot (most those teams are in the East though).
Result: If Portland's injuries continue to derail their season and if Denver blows up their team by trading Carmelo Anthony then Houston is one team capable of taking advantage by slipping into the playoffs as a lower seed.
Indiana Pacers - C
Right: Roy Hibbert got off to a strong start, and while he has hit a slump lately he has still shown signs of his potential to become a dominant big man. Danny Granger has seen his scoring average drop a bit due to taking less shots per game than his career average, but he's still averaging over 21 points her game and his other numbers have remained consistant with recent seasons.
Wrong: Darren Collison has been a disappointment. He lit up the league as a rookie last year for a brief stretch while filling in for the injured Chris Paul in New Orleans. After being traded to Indiana before the season he was supposed to be flourish as the starting point guard, but has thus far regressed from his rookie season. Part of the reason for his troubles may be due to coach Jim O'Brien's inconsistant rotations that haven't allowed Collison, or the rest of the team, to gell as a unit. Collison has also been held to under 30 minutes per game, with the clearly inferior TJ Ford getting nearly 20 minutes of action. Lately Collison's minutes have picked up, and so has his game.
Result: The Pacers currently hold the number 8 spot in the East, which is top heavy with a few dominant teams but drops off dramatically after the elite. They may not end up winning more than half their games, yet still have a shot at the playoffs.
LA Clippers - C-
Right: Blake Griffin is going to run away with the Rookie of the Year award and deserves considertaion as an All-Star. He has energized this team with his thunderous dunks and eye popping stat lines. He has made the Clippers a team people actually want to watch and even inspired Baron Davis to wake up and show some effort on occasion. Eric Gordon is another young player that has taken a big step forward this year, currently ranking 8th in the league in scoring (23.8).
Wrong: Well, it's the Clippers, so we have to expect things to go wrong. They have a losing record for the year, but have played much better lately, winning 7 of their last 10. Donald Sterling is the worst owner in sports, so unless the Clippers curse ruins Griffins career, you can count on Sterling to find another way to inadvertently destroy the young superstar's career or chase him out of town.
Result: The Clips are a fun team to watch, but still another year or two away from contending. They need to upgrade the SF spot and if they can't get more out of veterans like Chris Kamon and Baron Davis then they need to try to move them out of the way to allow the young kids to flourish.
LA Lakers - A-
Right: They got off to a slow start but have heated up since and climbed back to the 2nd spot in the West. Pau Gasol carried the team through the early part of the season by putting up MVP caliber numbers. Andrew Bynum's return came just in time to allow Gasol's minutes to be scaled back a bit, as he was beginning to look a bit worn out. Kobe is having another sensational season, putting up the kind of numbers you would expect by changing his game to fit a style more suited for this stage of his career when his legs have racked up plenty of mileage.
Wrong: They aren't getting much out of the point guard spot from Fisher or Blake. Ron Artest is still able to be a lock down defender, but on the offensive end he is close to becoming a liability. Kobe's shots per game are actually slightly down from previous years, but he's also playing less minutes. There have been a few games where he has shown signs of the "old Kobe" where he would try to take over games by himself instead of playing within the team. Pau Gasol called him out for it after one such game, so if it continues then it may threaten the chemistry of the team.
Result: We know the Lakers will be in the playoffs, but it probably won't be as the top seed like most expected. They are 6 games back of the Spurs, which may be too much ground to make up at this point given how well the Spurs are playing. They will still finish near the top of the West and should see another deep playoff run. Given that they have already played in three straight Finals you have to wonder if the team will run out of gas before getting out of the West, especially if they have to win on the road in San Antonio.
Memphis Grizzlies - C
Right: Rudy Gay is having a phenominal season and appears to be living up to his big contract so far. Zach Randolph is following up last year's resurgant season with another strong performance. The Grizzlies are the only other team, along with the Rockets, to not be in a current playoff spot despite a positive point differential.
Wrong: Marc Gasol has taken a slight step back from last year's break out season, averaging 3 points and 2 rebounds less per game. His back-up, and last years #2 overall draft pick, Hasheem Thabeet, has been even worse this year than his rookie season, which was widly considered a bust. His miserable 3.44 PER and -1.0 EWA make him the worst center in the league.
Result: Their record is below .500 and there are several teams ahead of them for a playoff spot, but they are close enough and have enough talent that they have a chance to slip into the playoffs if a couple of the teams above them trail off in the second half.
Miami Heat - A-
Right: The best part of their season happened over the summer when they united the trinity of LeBron, Wade and Bosh. On paper they seem unstoppable, but it took a while for them to learn how to play together. They got off to as slow start at 9-8 before finding themselves and going on a 22-1 streak. LeBron and Wade initially seemed uncomfortable playing together, as if they were hesitant about who would take control in certain situations. Once they worked out the kinks they began to dominate as expected. The stat lines for the big three are down for each of their career averages, but it was expected they would each see some decline as their usage rates would all drop while playing together. Arguably, their numbers haven't dropped as much as expected and LeBron and Wade both are in the mix for MVP candidates. The Heat rank in the top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which no other team can claim.
Wrong: Their roster is paper thin, so they can't afford to have players go into slumps or get injured. Losing Haslem for the season is a big loss for a team that lacks size and rebounding. Mike Miller missed the early part of the season with a hand injury. He's back now, but has struggled to fit into the rotation thus far and contributed far less than expected. Their starting center, Joel Anthony, has a miserable PER of only 7.71 and an Estimated Wins Added mark of -1.1, making him one of the 5 worst centers in the league. Their other big man options of Dampier and Big Z aren't much better.
Result: The Heat's style of play should help them coast through the rest of the regular season and give them a good shot at winning their division and perhaps even the top seed in the East. However, there are some questions about how this style will work in the playoffs. They may have match-up problems against teams with dominant big men, such as Boston, Orlando and the Lakers - all teams they may need to face en route to a championship. The Heat have had had relatively good luck in terms of health for their three star players, but the way this team is built they can't afford to lose any of those three. The Heat are 0-4 this season when at least one of the trio does not play. If any of them were to miss an extended period of time then the ship may sink quickly.
Milwaukee Bucks - C
Right: Andrew Bogut has recovered from last year's gruesome elbow injury and has averaged a double-double while leading the league in blocks. Brandon Jennings is building on his impressive rookie campaign. He's still far from the most accurate shooter in the game, but he has improved his field goal percentage to be closer to the 40% mark this year, which has helped edge his scoring up by a couple of points per game.
Wrong: So much for Fear the Deer. Last year's surprising surge at the end of the season made them a team nobody wanted to face in the playoffs, at least until Bogut got hurt and killed their chances. Despite getting Bogat back, they haven't reclaimed the magic of last season. Last year the Bucks were one of the worst teams in the league at getting to the free throw line, so they brought in Corey Magette to help. He has gotten to the line more than 5 times per game, but aside from that hasn't been much help. Only Cleveland has been worse on offense than the Bucks.
Result: Perhaps another 2nd half run will get them back into the postseason, but it may require another trade deadline shake up to do it. Or maybe getting back a healthy Carlos Delfino, who has missed most of the season with a concussion, combined with getting players like Maggette and Salmons to play to their potential will be enough to get by.
Minnesota Timberwolves - D
Right: Kevin Love is a beast. He's easily leading the league in rebounds (15.6) and became the first player since Moses Malone to record over 30 points and 30 rebounds in a game. He's top 7 in the league in both PER (24.32) and EWA (10.1). Michael Beasley is having a break out season in his first year it 'Sota. They were able to obtain him for only a 2nd round pick during Miami's firesale to gut their roster this summer and his production has far surpassed the price they paid for him.
Wrong: Still no Ricky Rubio and Johnny Flynn might be the worst point guard in the league (4.77 PER). So last year's draft didn't go so well. This year's rookie, Wesley Johnson, has been a little better but doesn't look like he'll develop into anything more than a role player.
Result: The T'Wolves are still one the worst teams in the league, but at least the duo of Love and Beasley makes them watchable again. Now that coach Rambis has smartened up and given Love the minutes he deserves he's reaching his All-Star potential, which is the silver lining for the season. They have no shot at the playoffs and will probably get another high lottery pick which they will inevitably whiff on, then try to cover up with more botched free agent signings. KAAAAHHHNNN!
New Jersey Nets - D
Right: Well, they aren't the worst team in the league this year and aren't on pace to break any records for futility, so that's a start. Rookie Derek Favors has shown glimpses of his potential, and while he still has a long way to go he should eventually develop into a very good player.
Wrong: The season has been overshadowed by the drama of a potential trade for Carmelo Anthony. Recently the Nets billionaire Russian owner announced the team was pulling out of trade discussions because they had gone on too long and become a distraction. That and he had been given no indication that 'Melo was willing to sign an extension with them. All that hype and rumor swirling for nothing. Brook Lopez has taken a big step back this year and the team must be wondering if he can be counted on to be the cornerstone player they thought he would become. His rebounding is the biggest concern. After averaging over 8 boards per game in his first two seasons he has regressed to under 6 per game, a troubling sign for a starting center.
Result: They may improve over last year's disaster, but they are still a long way from being a good team. The lure of their eventual move to Brooklyn and an owner willing to spend will help them in the future, but has done nothing for them this season.
New Orelans Hornets - B
Right: The Hornets got off to a fast start by winning 11 of their first 12 games. Chris Paul is healthy and back to being at the top of the list of elite point guards. He's 2nd in the league in PER (25.55) and should be in the MVP discussion as long as the team remains a contender.
Wrong: After CP3 and David West the Hornets roster doesn't have much to offer. None of the Hornets wing players has even been average. Trevor Ariza leads the group of busts with a PER of 10.61 and is only shooting 38% from the field. This is the guy they traded for to shake things up and convince CP3 to stay?
Result: This team will go as far as Chris Paul can carry them. As long as he is healthy he will get them to the playoffs, but a 2nd round exit may be their ceiling if he doesn't get more help.
New York Knicks - B
Right: Amare Stoudemire has re-energized the city and the team with his MVP caliber play. He is second in the league in points and if he can sustain his level of 2.3 blocks per game then it would be a career high. Raymond Felton has flourished in D'Antoni's offense and is putting up All-Star worthy numbers (over 17 points, 8 assists). Wilson Chandler has had a break out season and Landry Fields has been the steal of the draft. Picked in the second round last summer, Fields has arguably been one of the 5 best rookies in this year's class. He leads all guards in rebound rate by collecting 12.9% of available rebounds when he's in the game.
Wrong: Danilo Gallinari hasn't taken the step forward the team had hopped. With the added weapons around him they don't necessarily need him to increase his scoring, but his shooting percentage, particularly from beyond the arc, has declined each season he's been in the league.
Result: Considering the turmoil this franchise has had to dig itself out of over the past decade, it's hard for Knicks fans to find anything to complain about now that they finally have a team that will make the playoffs. Their excitement could boil over if they are able to land Carmelo Anthony (more likely now that the Nets have supposedly pulled out). They would have to give up a lot of promising talent to acquire him though, so as well as they Knicks are playing now is it really worth blowing up the team to get him now when they may be able to acquire him as free agent in the off season? That boils down to if they want to gamble on how much 'Melo really wants to be in NY versus how much he wants the extra money he can get by accepting an extension before the new CBA deal is set. It's a risky decision and the team better hope the uncertainty doesn't drag them down as the season progresses.
Oklahoma City Thunder - B+
Right: Kevin Durant is well on his way to another scoring title. He was expected to be an MVP candidate, and while he may still be, so far he might not even have been the best player on his own team. Russell Westbrook has exploded this season for 22.5 points, 5.0 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game, giving the Thunder one of the best one-two punches in the game. Both rank in the top 12 in the league in PER and EWA. Serge Ibaka has given them the inside defensive presence they have lacked in recent years.
Wrong: They got off to a bit of a slow start due to an injury and some shooting struggles for Durant, but he's turned things around and is back to his elite level of play. Jeff Green has been inconsistent and the team will need to make a decision in the near future about whether it's worth the money to keep him as part of this young core.
Result: The Thunder are one of the best young teams on the rise. Last year they got a taste of the postseason and are looking to build on that this year. They should be a higher seed this year, giving them a better chance of advancing to at least the second round. They may not have met the high expectations that some (including myself) predicted for them, but they are in good shape so far.
Orlando Magic - B+
Right: GM Otis Smith was concerned that they would be unable to win a title with their current roster, so he shocked the league by blowing up a potential contender mid-season in the midst of a streak where they had lost 8 out of 9 games. Two separate deals with the Suns and Wizards sent multiple players each way. Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis were shipped out to bring in Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson and Hedu Turkoglu. It was a bold move, but after some initial chemistry issues early on, which was to be expected for a team being re-built on the fly, they were able to gel and are working there way back to being one of the elite teams in the East.
Wrong: The big trades were a plus for the team, but could they also be a minus? Arenas is a wild card that they may not be able to rely on to behave and/or stay healthy. Turkoglu disappointed in Toronto and Phoenix, so it's a reach to assume he can get back to the level he was at when he left Orlando a couple of years ago. They also traded back-up center Marcin Gortat in the deal with Phoenix, leaving them dangerously thin in the front court behind Dwight Howard. That puts a lot of pressure on D12 to not only carry the load, but to stay on the court. As he continues to pile up technical fouls due to the league's ridiculous new "respect the game" rules he is in danger of missing at least one game due to a suspension if he reaches 16 for the season.
Result: With perennial defensive player of the year candidate Dwight Howard roaming the court the Magic will always be a force to be reckoned with. D12 has also worked on his post moves, spending time with Hall of Famer Hakeem Olajuwon this summer, and it's shown so far. Now if only he could work on those free throws! They are in a tough race for the division title, but will make the playoffs at least and could potentially make a deep run in the postseason.
Philadelphia 76ers - C
Right: Elton Brand has bounced back for his past couple years of mediocrity to post respectable numbers. He'll never live up to that awful contract, but at least they are getting something out of him. Their young point guard Jrue Holiday is showing signs of a break out. He needs to be more consistent, but he looks like he will be a good player.
Wrong: Andre Iguodala is having a poor season by his standards. He's dropped a few points per game off his career average, in part because he's shooting career low percentages from the field (43.6) and free throw line (66.7). Injuries are partly to blame, but he needs to get it together. He's miscast as a number one option out of necessity for a team that doesn't have a top option on offense. Rookie Evan Turner has been a bit of a bust so far. There are 22 other rookies with a higher PER than his 9.11 and his -0.7 EWA is tied for worst among the rookie class. He has shown flashes of his potential, but most of that has come at times when Iggy was out of the line-up, supporting the theory many had on draft day that those two don't fit well together.
Result: Since the bottom of the East is so bad the 76ers find themselves as one of the bad teams that may make the playoffs. They might as well try, since clearly tanking for a higher draft pick doesn't necessarily help.
Phoenix Suns - C-
Right: Steve Nash is about the only bright spot in the desert these days. At age 36 he's having one of his best seasons, with a PER in the top 10 in the league (24.02). Because of Nash the Suns are 4th in the league in offensive efficiency.
Wrong: Unfortunately, they are also last in defensive efficiency. For a team that made the Western Finals last year they have fallen fast. They let Stoudemire walk and replaced him with bad contracts like Josh Childress and Hakim Warrick. They corrected the mistake of trading for Turkoglu by shipping him off to Orlando, but it cost them Jason Richardson. It's amazing that Nash still gets double digit assists given the option he is stuck passing to these days.
Results: The Suns need to re-build, and with that comes the hardest decision of all - what to do with Nash. He's the face of the franchise and the only reason left for fans to show up for games. He's too classy a guy to try to force his way out and seems willing to stick it out for the team he agreed to sign with. Still, it's a shame to see a talent like him waste his remaining years on a team going nowhere. For Phoenix, he has a large contract and is their only valuable trading asset. He could command a large ransom in young players, expiring contracts and draft picks if he were to be made available. It's a very tough situation, but at this point trading him seems like the right thing for both sides.
Portland Trailblazers - B-
Right: LaMarcus Aldridge is having the best season of his career and established himself as one of the top 10 power forwards in the league. Wes Matthews is showing why Portland gave him so much money to get him there and Nicolas Batum has been great at times (although those two never seem to play well during the same stretches, partly because they take minutes away from each other).
Wrong: Injuries have once again destroyed this team. Greg Oden will miss the entire season.... again. He's played a total of 82 games in his 4 year career. Brandon Roy's season is in doubt as well. He's been out for about a month with a bad knee that will never be the same. They also just lost Marcus Camby for at least a month.
Result: Despite the never ending string of injuries, the Blazers are clinging to the 8th seed in the West. Eventually the loss of players will result in more losses in games, giving other teams a chance to leap over them to take their playoff spot. They should consider trading away some pieces that don't factor into their long term plans, such as Andre Miller.
Sacramento Kings - F
Right: Not much has gone right for the Kings so far, which explains why they find themselves in the cellar of the Western Conference. At least DeMarcus Cousins has shown enough potential to expect him to become a valuable big man in the near future, but he needs to cut down on the attitude and fouls.
Wrong: Tyreke Evans has taken a step back after his Rookie of the Year campaign. Injuries are partially to blame, as he's attempted to play through a variety of injuries, but his shot selection also needs work. His .461 True Shooting Percentage is one of the worst in the league for point guards.
Result: If they keep getting high lottery picks every year then they have to become good eventually, right?
San Antonio Spurs - A+
Right: The biggest surprise of the season might be how dominant the Spurs have been. We knew they would likely be a playoff team, but most expected the aging group of veterans to coast into one of the lower seeds in the West and try to get by on their experience in the playoffs. To our surprise, they have easily been the best team in the regular season so far and appear to be in a good position to lock up the top seed in either conference. Even more surprising is how they have gone about doing it. Led by Tim Duncan, the Spurs have always been a team that won on the defensive end. On offense they were... well, a bit boring. Not anymore. The offense no longer runs through Duncan (although he can still turn it up when needed) and instead goes through Tony Parker and Manu Ginoblli, who is having his best season. They have turned into a high scoring offense that also leads the league in offensive efficiency.
Wrong: Hard to find anything wrong with a team that only has 6 losses to this point and leads the league in point differential. One potential flaw could be with Richard Jefferson. He got off to a good start, helping people forget last season's miserable year where he seemed lost on his new team. Over the past month he has regressed back to last year's woes. He needs to get back to how he played earlier in the season.
Result: The Spurs should get the top seed in the West. They play so well at home that having home court through the playoffs could mean another title is in their future.
Toronto Raptors - D
Right: Andrea Bargnani has stepped up his game by averaging a career high 21.5 points per game. He's the top option for Toronto these days, for lack of a better option. Rookie Ed Davis got a late start to the season, but has given steady production in limited minutes. Surprisingly, he is 2nd among rookies in PER (15.89)
Wrong: Since Chris Bosh departed over the summer, the Raptors are left without a star player to build around. Bargnani is a former #1 overall pick, but he lacks star power and isn't the type of dominant player that can carry a team.
Result: Canada's team is rebuilding in the post-Bosh era and will hope for a high lottery pick this summer.
Utah Jazz - B
Right: Deron Williams is having an outstanding season and is in the select group at the top of the elite point guards in the league. Paul Milsap has stepped up to fill the void by the departure of Carlos Boozer. With the addition of Al Jefferson, their front court is even more formidable than before despite losing their All-Star power forward.
Wrong: Mehmet Okur has missed most of the season due to injury and hasn't played well since his return. His time on the court has been limited so far, but even on a per minute basis his numbers are down across the board. Their bench is pretty depleted after an off-season that saw some key rotation players move on and their replacements haven't done enough to fill the void.
Result: The Jazz are right in the middle of a pack of contending teams where only half a game separates the 3 seed from the 6 seed. They have a lot of work to do if they hope to move higher than that, but they should be able to stay within their current range at least.
Washington Wizards - D
Right: John Wall has energized the team with his exciting style of play by averaging over 15 points and 9 assists, while ranking in the top 10 in the league in steals. If Blake Griffin weren't already running away with the award then Wall would deserve some consideration. The biggest success of the season may have been finding someone to take Gilbert Arenas when they traded him to Orlando for Rashard Lewis. It's essentially a swap of bad contracts, but both players badly needed a change of scenery and the Wizards can now wash their hands of Arenas and move on from the gun related drama he put them through last year.
Wrong: The Wizards are competing to be one of the 5 worst teams in the league. They have been respectable in front of their home fans, but are a miserable 0-20 on the road, the only team in the league that hasn't won a road game.
Result: They have a good young nucleus with Wall, Andre Blatche and JaVale McGee that they can build around, but it will take time for the kids to grow up and they need to add some other pieces around them before they can hope to contend for a playoff spot.
Atlanta Hawks - B+
Right: The Hawks have gotten off to a surprisingly good start considering many expected a slight decline this season while their division rivals improved. Yet they find themselves in the thick of the Southeast division race. Al Horford has taken another big step forward to establish himself as one of the best young big men in the East.
Wrong: After signing the biggest max contract of the summer, Joe Johnson has seen his numbers decline a bit. Part of that may be attributed to playing in a new system, which focuses more on ball movement rather than the old "Iso-Joe" offense that allowed him to control the ball more. His usage rate has dropped as other teammates have gotten more involved. He also struggled early with an elbow injury that cost him 7 games, but since his return he's started to turn things around and has played better over the past month.
Result: Johnson's 6 year, $119 million deal may cripple the team in the long term, but the outlook for this season remains strong. Unfortunately they share a division with two of the top teams in the East, so overcoming both Miami and Orlando may prove to be too much of a challenge. They'll make the playoffs, but may have to settle for a 5 or 6 seed, which could mean a first round exit.
Boston Celtics - A
Right: Another strong start pushed Boston out to a 23-5 start through Christmas. Paul Pierce is playing as well as ever by being the most reliable scoring option and using his all around game to contribute in many other areas as well. Rajon Rondo has become an elite point guard, leading the league in assist by a wide margin (13.4). Ray Allen is closing in on the league record for career 3 point field goals made and KG has looked like he has his legs back under him again. They continue to win with veteran savvy and suffocating defense (2nd in Defensive Efficiency). "Big Baby" Davis is a contender for 6th man of the year. He has thrived as the main option off the bench. When KG was injured he was forced to step into the starting line-up where he struggled a bit. He forced too many shots, which isn't necessary when the 1st unit is loaded with so many other options. He seems more comfortable leading the 2nd unit, so the team needs to stay healthy in order to allow him to thrive in that role.
Wrong: As many predicted, injuries has been the one flaw capable of derailing this team from championship aspirations. Kendrick Perkins still hasn't played this season while recovering from off-season knee surgery. Delonte West has barely played thanks to a 10 game suspension which was followed by a wrist injury that still has him out of the line-up. Jermaine O'Neal has barely played and will be out at least another month. Most damaging has been the chunks of games missed by Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo. Pierce and Allen have been healthy so far (knock on wood), but at their age there are legitimate concerns over how much longer they can hold up. They need more rest, but can't afford to take it with the rest of the line-up being so depleted. They have a lot of depth at the big man positions, but need to keep them all healthy if they hope to improve in the rebounding stats. They are in the bottom half of the league in rebound rate and dead last in rebounds per game. That last stat can be misleading, as their rebound totals are impacted by their slow pace. Their lack of offensive rebounds is what drags them down, but that is influenced by their league best True Shooting Percentage and their team philosophy of getting back on defense to prevent transition baskets for the other team rather than crashing the boards to get offensive rebounds. Nonetheless, their rebounding needs to improve to compete with teams that have dominant big men such as the Magic, Lakers and Spurs.
Result: They have the best record in the East so far, but we've seen this before. It's amazing how they've managed to keep winning games despite all the injuries. When they finally get everyone healthy they can finally start to form some chemistry on their bench, which would make them even more dangerous. They play in arguable the worst division in the league, so they are a near lock to win the Atlantic Division, which guarantees them at least a top 4 seed in the playoffs. If they can get healthy (a big if) they have a great chance to get the top seed and make a deep playoff run, potentially even a title run.
Charlotte Bobcats - C-
Right: It's hard to figure what direction the Cats are going in. They have a few pieces that hold some value as trade assets, such as Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace, but neither is a player they can build around. They don't have much in terms of young talent to rebuild with outside of Tyrus Thomas, who has been held back for the most part this year. The departure of Larry Brown could change that, as they've already started playing better since the coaching change.
Wrong: They have been starting Kwame Brown at center lately, doesn't that say enough? The former number one bust isn't even their biggest worry. Captain Jack and Wallace have both declined from their former All-Star levels and their supporting cast isn't good enough to support them as a contender. In recent years they have been one of the better defensive teams, but it's yet to be seen if that will continue without Brown as the coach. They are one of the worst offensive teams in the league, which doesn't seem likely to change no matter who the coach is.
Result: They seem to be in no man's land. They have a shot at the 8th seed in the East due to the lack of depth in the conference, but would be almost a lock as an early first round exit, just like last year. If they miss the playoffs they probably wouldn't even get a high draft pick without a little luck in the lottery. Their best bet is to blow things up by trading S-Jax and Wallace for younger, cheaper talent and draft picks and hope for a high lottery pick in the draft that they can build upon. Then hope that Michael Jordan can use his legacy to charm some free agents into joining them. Good luck with that.
Chicago Bulls - A-
Right: Derek Rose has taken his game to another level by averaging nearly 25 points per game and 8 assists while improving his long range shot (1.6 3PM) and doing a better job of getting to the free throw line (81% on 6 FTA per game). He's led the Bulls to first in their division and put himself in the middle of the MVP debate. Carlos Boozer has proved to be the inside presence they needed when they signed him as free agent this summer, but he's missed a lot of games with injuries. He needs to stay healthy and the Bulls need to continue to get solid contributions from players like Deng and Gibson to take some of the strain of carrying the team off of Rose. New coach Tom Thibodeau has turned them into the top team in the league in defensive efficiency, which is really saying something considering their top two players - Rose and Boozer - aren't known for their defense and Joakim Noah has missed a lot of time with injury.
Wrong: They haven't had both Boozer and Noah healthy at the same time for long enough to develop chemistry. They need both of them to be at their best, with Boozer being an offensive threat and Noah being the defensive anchor. They are also lacking enough threats from outside shooters, ranking in the bottom third in the league in 3 point attempts and the bottom half in 3 point percentage. Keith Bogans may be one of the worst players in the league to have a starting spot, with a PER of only 7.11. Ronnie Brewer and Kyle Korver haven't been much better off the bench behind him.
Result: They have a 10 game margin in the standings over Indiana for the lead in their division, so one of the top seeds in the East is a virtual lock. They are good enough to win a first round series, but probably not more than that. They are still a piece or two away from being a title contender. They would love to make a trade to upgrade their SG spot, preferably a shooter.
Cleveland Caveliers - F
Right: You have to feel bad for Cleveland for how they were treated last summer when LeBron took his talents to South Beach and left the Cavs in ruins. There is not a lot of hope left with this team. One of the few bright spots had been the improved play of Anderson Varejao, but now he's out for the season with an injury. At least they still have passionate fans that show up just to boo LeBron, but even his much anticipated return became a disaster for the Cavs.
Wrong: Now it's easy to see why LeBron was the MVP the past two years. They have the same core that they had last season, but subtract LeBron and the team goes from the best record in the East to the worst. They are the worst team in the league in offensive efficiency and next to last in defensive efficiency.
Their -11.3 point differential is by far the worst in the league and they are on a miserable 13 game losing streak.
Result: It's not really their fault. The Cavs did all they could to surround LeBron with the right pieces over the past couple of years to try to win a title with him and convince him to stay, but it backfired. Now they are left with a roster full of roll players that don't really fit without a Superstar to play with. This season is doomed. They hired a good coach and have good management at the top with an owner willing to spend (plus he's hellbent on winning a title before LeBron does, for whatever that's worth), which suggests they will rebound eventually, but it's going to take time.
Dallas Mavericks - B+
Right: The Mavs got off to a fast start to find themselves near the top of the West. Dirk Nowitzki may be having the best season of his career and Tyson Chandler is having a resurgant season as the physical rebounder and defender this team has lacked in the past.
Wrong: They hid a skid when Dirk got injured and the Mavs went a miserable 2-7 without him. He just returned and they need him to step back up to the level he had been at before the injury to carry this team. The season ending injury to Caron Butler hurts, but Shawn Marion has filled in admirably with his increased playing time. Jason Kidd is just as good as ever at distributing the ball, but he has started to decline in other areas. His scoring is down to single digits per game and he's shooting a stomach churning 33% from the field. The field of contenders in the West is crowded, so they can't afford to continue to stall much longer. They are now closer to the 8th seed than the 2nd seed.
Result: With Dirk back in the line-up the Mavs should be fine. It would help if they could find someone to take Butler's expiring contract to add another useful piece, and you know Mark Cuban will be aggressive in persuing anything that could improve the teams chances to win. They won't catch the Spurs for the division, but should be good enough for a top 4 seed and will be a tough opponent in the playoffs.
Denver Nuggets - B-
Right: As it stands now anyway, the Nuggest are in the playoff race (currently 7th in the West). They also have one of the game's elite scorers in Carmelo Anthony, who continues to improve his game by averaging a career high in rebounds. Billups got off to a slow start and shows signs of slowing down, but he's still a reliable veteran capable of running a contending team. They have gotten surprisingly good play from role players like Arron Afflalo and Ty Lawson. They are 3rd in the league in offensive efficiency and decent enough on defense.
Wrong: The 'Melo saga has dragged on all season and threatens to drag the team down with it. As the rumor mill heats up it appears to be becoming more of a distraction, not just to 'Melo, but to the entire team. If they keep him they will likely be a playoff team, but a longshot to come out of the West. If they trade him they will likely fall out of the playoff race and be lottery bound, but if they keep him and let him walk away for nothing after the season then things could be even worse.
Result: One way or another, they need to wrap up the on going trade drama. 'Melo wants to go to NY, but NJ has the better offer on the table. 'Melo wants to cash in on a big money extension before the new CBA agreement kicks in this off-season, but claims he won't sign it unless he's traded to his destination of choice. This whole thing is a mess. He's expected to be traded somewhere before the deadline, in which case we could then assume Denver misses the playoffs.
Detroit Pistons - D+
Right: Rookie Greg Monroe has started to show some signs of improvement lately. His minutes were limited early on, but have started to increase. He may not be a star, but could be a solid big man. Tracy McGrady has shown flashes of his old self at times, and while he can't sustain it over a long stretch they are probably getting more from him so far than what they could have hoped for.
Wrong: This roster is a mess. Most of the core starting unit from their 2004 championship team are there (Hamilton, Prince, Wallace) but they are well past their prime. The young guys like Rodney Stucky have failed to live up to expectations, along with last years free agent busts (Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva) that continue to clog their cap space. They have swung and missed on too many bad contracts in the past few years that it could take years to climb out of this hole.
Result: There appears to be little chance for them to make the playoffs with this squad. Their best bet is to try to pawn off some of those bad contracts to contending teams that are willing to overpay if it means improving their team (Dallas comes to mind). Even if they get little in return, the cap savings will help them rebuild.
Golden State Warriors - C+
Right: Now that the team has new owners and a new coach there finally appears to be hope for this franchise, but it won't lead to immediate success. They have talented young players like Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry that have played great, making them an exciting team to watch.
Wrong: Despite playing at one of the league's fastest paces, they are in the bottom half of the league in offensive efficiency, along with being one of the worst defensive teams. David Lee, the team's off-season big acquisition, has been a mild disappointment thus far while battling injuries and inconsistancy. His numbers are down across the board.
Result: Curry is going to be a star. The knock on Ellis had always been that his numbers were inflated by the excessive volume of shots he takes, but he's been more efficient this year, shooting 47% from the field. Lee has the talent to get back to his previous levels of being a double-double machine. With this young core they may not be ready to compete yet, but they could be a playoff team in the next couple of years.
Houston Rockets - C+
Right: Kevin Martin is having a great season. He has a chance to become the first player ever to lead the league in both 3 pointers made and free throws made - an increadible accomplishment when you consider that most of the top 3 point shooters don't often drive to the hoop to get fouled and the Rockets don't typically run their offense through Martin. Louis Scola is having a breakout sesason, establishing career highs in several categories.
Wrong: The loss of Yao has once again crippled this team, which was designed to be built around him. They are too undersized without him to compete with teams that have a lot of length in their frontcourt. They are a group of scrappy overachievers and they are a better team than what their record shows. They have the best scoring margin (+0.7) of any team that currently doesn't hold a playoff spot and a better margin than several teams that are currently in a playoff spot (most those teams are in the East though).
Result: If Portland's injuries continue to derail their season and if Denver blows up their team by trading Carmelo Anthony then Houston is one team capable of taking advantage by slipping into the playoffs as a lower seed.
Indiana Pacers - C
Right: Roy Hibbert got off to a strong start, and while he has hit a slump lately he has still shown signs of his potential to become a dominant big man. Danny Granger has seen his scoring average drop a bit due to taking less shots per game than his career average, but he's still averaging over 21 points her game and his other numbers have remained consistant with recent seasons.
Wrong: Darren Collison has been a disappointment. He lit up the league as a rookie last year for a brief stretch while filling in for the injured Chris Paul in New Orleans. After being traded to Indiana before the season he was supposed to be flourish as the starting point guard, but has thus far regressed from his rookie season. Part of the reason for his troubles may be due to coach Jim O'Brien's inconsistant rotations that haven't allowed Collison, or the rest of the team, to gell as a unit. Collison has also been held to under 30 minutes per game, with the clearly inferior TJ Ford getting nearly 20 minutes of action. Lately Collison's minutes have picked up, and so has his game.
Result: The Pacers currently hold the number 8 spot in the East, which is top heavy with a few dominant teams but drops off dramatically after the elite. They may not end up winning more than half their games, yet still have a shot at the playoffs.
LA Clippers - C-
Right: Blake Griffin is going to run away with the Rookie of the Year award and deserves considertaion as an All-Star. He has energized this team with his thunderous dunks and eye popping stat lines. He has made the Clippers a team people actually want to watch and even inspired Baron Davis to wake up and show some effort on occasion. Eric Gordon is another young player that has taken a big step forward this year, currently ranking 8th in the league in scoring (23.8).
Wrong: Well, it's the Clippers, so we have to expect things to go wrong. They have a losing record for the year, but have played much better lately, winning 7 of their last 10. Donald Sterling is the worst owner in sports, so unless the Clippers curse ruins Griffins career, you can count on Sterling to find another way to inadvertently destroy the young superstar's career or chase him out of town.
Result: The Clips are a fun team to watch, but still another year or two away from contending. They need to upgrade the SF spot and if they can't get more out of veterans like Chris Kamon and Baron Davis then they need to try to move them out of the way to allow the young kids to flourish.
LA Lakers - A-
Right: They got off to a slow start but have heated up since and climbed back to the 2nd spot in the West. Pau Gasol carried the team through the early part of the season by putting up MVP caliber numbers. Andrew Bynum's return came just in time to allow Gasol's minutes to be scaled back a bit, as he was beginning to look a bit worn out. Kobe is having another sensational season, putting up the kind of numbers you would expect by changing his game to fit a style more suited for this stage of his career when his legs have racked up plenty of mileage.
Wrong: They aren't getting much out of the point guard spot from Fisher or Blake. Ron Artest is still able to be a lock down defender, but on the offensive end he is close to becoming a liability. Kobe's shots per game are actually slightly down from previous years, but he's also playing less minutes. There have been a few games where he has shown signs of the "old Kobe" where he would try to take over games by himself instead of playing within the team. Pau Gasol called him out for it after one such game, so if it continues then it may threaten the chemistry of the team.
Result: We know the Lakers will be in the playoffs, but it probably won't be as the top seed like most expected. They are 6 games back of the Spurs, which may be too much ground to make up at this point given how well the Spurs are playing. They will still finish near the top of the West and should see another deep playoff run. Given that they have already played in three straight Finals you have to wonder if the team will run out of gas before getting out of the West, especially if they have to win on the road in San Antonio.
Memphis Grizzlies - C
Right: Rudy Gay is having a phenominal season and appears to be living up to his big contract so far. Zach Randolph is following up last year's resurgant season with another strong performance. The Grizzlies are the only other team, along with the Rockets, to not be in a current playoff spot despite a positive point differential.
Wrong: Marc Gasol has taken a slight step back from last year's break out season, averaging 3 points and 2 rebounds less per game. His back-up, and last years #2 overall draft pick, Hasheem Thabeet, has been even worse this year than his rookie season, which was widly considered a bust. His miserable 3.44 PER and -1.0 EWA make him the worst center in the league.
Result: Their record is below .500 and there are several teams ahead of them for a playoff spot, but they are close enough and have enough talent that they have a chance to slip into the playoffs if a couple of the teams above them trail off in the second half.
Miami Heat - A-
Right: The best part of their season happened over the summer when they united the trinity of LeBron, Wade and Bosh. On paper they seem unstoppable, but it took a while for them to learn how to play together. They got off to as slow start at 9-8 before finding themselves and going on a 22-1 streak. LeBron and Wade initially seemed uncomfortable playing together, as if they were hesitant about who would take control in certain situations. Once they worked out the kinks they began to dominate as expected. The stat lines for the big three are down for each of their career averages, but it was expected they would each see some decline as their usage rates would all drop while playing together. Arguably, their numbers haven't dropped as much as expected and LeBron and Wade both are in the mix for MVP candidates. The Heat rank in the top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which no other team can claim.
Wrong: Their roster is paper thin, so they can't afford to have players go into slumps or get injured. Losing Haslem for the season is a big loss for a team that lacks size and rebounding. Mike Miller missed the early part of the season with a hand injury. He's back now, but has struggled to fit into the rotation thus far and contributed far less than expected. Their starting center, Joel Anthony, has a miserable PER of only 7.71 and an Estimated Wins Added mark of -1.1, making him one of the 5 worst centers in the league. Their other big man options of Dampier and Big Z aren't much better.
Result: The Heat's style of play should help them coast through the rest of the regular season and give them a good shot at winning their division and perhaps even the top seed in the East. However, there are some questions about how this style will work in the playoffs. They may have match-up problems against teams with dominant big men, such as Boston, Orlando and the Lakers - all teams they may need to face en route to a championship. The Heat have had had relatively good luck in terms of health for their three star players, but the way this team is built they can't afford to lose any of those three. The Heat are 0-4 this season when at least one of the trio does not play. If any of them were to miss an extended period of time then the ship may sink quickly.
Milwaukee Bucks - C
Right: Andrew Bogut has recovered from last year's gruesome elbow injury and has averaged a double-double while leading the league in blocks. Brandon Jennings is building on his impressive rookie campaign. He's still far from the most accurate shooter in the game, but he has improved his field goal percentage to be closer to the 40% mark this year, which has helped edge his scoring up by a couple of points per game.
Wrong: So much for Fear the Deer. Last year's surprising surge at the end of the season made them a team nobody wanted to face in the playoffs, at least until Bogut got hurt and killed their chances. Despite getting Bogat back, they haven't reclaimed the magic of last season. Last year the Bucks were one of the worst teams in the league at getting to the free throw line, so they brought in Corey Magette to help. He has gotten to the line more than 5 times per game, but aside from that hasn't been much help. Only Cleveland has been worse on offense than the Bucks.
Result: Perhaps another 2nd half run will get them back into the postseason, but it may require another trade deadline shake up to do it. Or maybe getting back a healthy Carlos Delfino, who has missed most of the season with a concussion, combined with getting players like Maggette and Salmons to play to their potential will be enough to get by.
Minnesota Timberwolves - D
Right: Kevin Love is a beast. He's easily leading the league in rebounds (15.6) and became the first player since Moses Malone to record over 30 points and 30 rebounds in a game. He's top 7 in the league in both PER (24.32) and EWA (10.1). Michael Beasley is having a break out season in his first year it 'Sota. They were able to obtain him for only a 2nd round pick during Miami's firesale to gut their roster this summer and his production has far surpassed the price they paid for him.
Wrong: Still no Ricky Rubio and Johnny Flynn might be the worst point guard in the league (4.77 PER). So last year's draft didn't go so well. This year's rookie, Wesley Johnson, has been a little better but doesn't look like he'll develop into anything more than a role player.
Result: The T'Wolves are still one the worst teams in the league, but at least the duo of Love and Beasley makes them watchable again. Now that coach Rambis has smartened up and given Love the minutes he deserves he's reaching his All-Star potential, which is the silver lining for the season. They have no shot at the playoffs and will probably get another high lottery pick which they will inevitably whiff on, then try to cover up with more botched free agent signings. KAAAAHHHNNN!
New Jersey Nets - D
Right: Well, they aren't the worst team in the league this year and aren't on pace to break any records for futility, so that's a start. Rookie Derek Favors has shown glimpses of his potential, and while he still has a long way to go he should eventually develop into a very good player.
Wrong: The season has been overshadowed by the drama of a potential trade for Carmelo Anthony. Recently the Nets billionaire Russian owner announced the team was pulling out of trade discussions because they had gone on too long and become a distraction. That and he had been given no indication that 'Melo was willing to sign an extension with them. All that hype and rumor swirling for nothing. Brook Lopez has taken a big step back this year and the team must be wondering if he can be counted on to be the cornerstone player they thought he would become. His rebounding is the biggest concern. After averaging over 8 boards per game in his first two seasons he has regressed to under 6 per game, a troubling sign for a starting center.
Result: They may improve over last year's disaster, but they are still a long way from being a good team. The lure of their eventual move to Brooklyn and an owner willing to spend will help them in the future, but has done nothing for them this season.
New Orelans Hornets - B
Right: The Hornets got off to a fast start by winning 11 of their first 12 games. Chris Paul is healthy and back to being at the top of the list of elite point guards. He's 2nd in the league in PER (25.55) and should be in the MVP discussion as long as the team remains a contender.
Wrong: After CP3 and David West the Hornets roster doesn't have much to offer. None of the Hornets wing players has even been average. Trevor Ariza leads the group of busts with a PER of 10.61 and is only shooting 38% from the field. This is the guy they traded for to shake things up and convince CP3 to stay?
Result: This team will go as far as Chris Paul can carry them. As long as he is healthy he will get them to the playoffs, but a 2nd round exit may be their ceiling if he doesn't get more help.
New York Knicks - B
Right: Amare Stoudemire has re-energized the city and the team with his MVP caliber play. He is second in the league in points and if he can sustain his level of 2.3 blocks per game then it would be a career high. Raymond Felton has flourished in D'Antoni's offense and is putting up All-Star worthy numbers (over 17 points, 8 assists). Wilson Chandler has had a break out season and Landry Fields has been the steal of the draft. Picked in the second round last summer, Fields has arguably been one of the 5 best rookies in this year's class. He leads all guards in rebound rate by collecting 12.9% of available rebounds when he's in the game.
Wrong: Danilo Gallinari hasn't taken the step forward the team had hopped. With the added weapons around him they don't necessarily need him to increase his scoring, but his shooting percentage, particularly from beyond the arc, has declined each season he's been in the league.
Result: Considering the turmoil this franchise has had to dig itself out of over the past decade, it's hard for Knicks fans to find anything to complain about now that they finally have a team that will make the playoffs. Their excitement could boil over if they are able to land Carmelo Anthony (more likely now that the Nets have supposedly pulled out). They would have to give up a lot of promising talent to acquire him though, so as well as they Knicks are playing now is it really worth blowing up the team to get him now when they may be able to acquire him as free agent in the off season? That boils down to if they want to gamble on how much 'Melo really wants to be in NY versus how much he wants the extra money he can get by accepting an extension before the new CBA deal is set. It's a risky decision and the team better hope the uncertainty doesn't drag them down as the season progresses.
Oklahoma City Thunder - B+
Right: Kevin Durant is well on his way to another scoring title. He was expected to be an MVP candidate, and while he may still be, so far he might not even have been the best player on his own team. Russell Westbrook has exploded this season for 22.5 points, 5.0 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game, giving the Thunder one of the best one-two punches in the game. Both rank in the top 12 in the league in PER and EWA. Serge Ibaka has given them the inside defensive presence they have lacked in recent years.
Wrong: They got off to a bit of a slow start due to an injury and some shooting struggles for Durant, but he's turned things around and is back to his elite level of play. Jeff Green has been inconsistent and the team will need to make a decision in the near future about whether it's worth the money to keep him as part of this young core.
Result: The Thunder are one of the best young teams on the rise. Last year they got a taste of the postseason and are looking to build on that this year. They should be a higher seed this year, giving them a better chance of advancing to at least the second round. They may not have met the high expectations that some (including myself) predicted for them, but they are in good shape so far.
Orlando Magic - B+
Right: GM Otis Smith was concerned that they would be unable to win a title with their current roster, so he shocked the league by blowing up a potential contender mid-season in the midst of a streak where they had lost 8 out of 9 games. Two separate deals with the Suns and Wizards sent multiple players each way. Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis were shipped out to bring in Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson and Hedu Turkoglu. It was a bold move, but after some initial chemistry issues early on, which was to be expected for a team being re-built on the fly, they were able to gel and are working there way back to being one of the elite teams in the East.
Wrong: The big trades were a plus for the team, but could they also be a minus? Arenas is a wild card that they may not be able to rely on to behave and/or stay healthy. Turkoglu disappointed in Toronto and Phoenix, so it's a reach to assume he can get back to the level he was at when he left Orlando a couple of years ago. They also traded back-up center Marcin Gortat in the deal with Phoenix, leaving them dangerously thin in the front court behind Dwight Howard. That puts a lot of pressure on D12 to not only carry the load, but to stay on the court. As he continues to pile up technical fouls due to the league's ridiculous new "respect the game" rules he is in danger of missing at least one game due to a suspension if he reaches 16 for the season.
Result: With perennial defensive player of the year candidate Dwight Howard roaming the court the Magic will always be a force to be reckoned with. D12 has also worked on his post moves, spending time with Hall of Famer Hakeem Olajuwon this summer, and it's shown so far. Now if only he could work on those free throws! They are in a tough race for the division title, but will make the playoffs at least and could potentially make a deep run in the postseason.
Philadelphia 76ers - C
Right: Elton Brand has bounced back for his past couple years of mediocrity to post respectable numbers. He'll never live up to that awful contract, but at least they are getting something out of him. Their young point guard Jrue Holiday is showing signs of a break out. He needs to be more consistent, but he looks like he will be a good player.
Wrong: Andre Iguodala is having a poor season by his standards. He's dropped a few points per game off his career average, in part because he's shooting career low percentages from the field (43.6) and free throw line (66.7). Injuries are partly to blame, but he needs to get it together. He's miscast as a number one option out of necessity for a team that doesn't have a top option on offense. Rookie Evan Turner has been a bit of a bust so far. There are 22 other rookies with a higher PER than his 9.11 and his -0.7 EWA is tied for worst among the rookie class. He has shown flashes of his potential, but most of that has come at times when Iggy was out of the line-up, supporting the theory many had on draft day that those two don't fit well together.
Result: Since the bottom of the East is so bad the 76ers find themselves as one of the bad teams that may make the playoffs. They might as well try, since clearly tanking for a higher draft pick doesn't necessarily help.
Phoenix Suns - C-
Right: Steve Nash is about the only bright spot in the desert these days. At age 36 he's having one of his best seasons, with a PER in the top 10 in the league (24.02). Because of Nash the Suns are 4th in the league in offensive efficiency.
Wrong: Unfortunately, they are also last in defensive efficiency. For a team that made the Western Finals last year they have fallen fast. They let Stoudemire walk and replaced him with bad contracts like Josh Childress and Hakim Warrick. They corrected the mistake of trading for Turkoglu by shipping him off to Orlando, but it cost them Jason Richardson. It's amazing that Nash still gets double digit assists given the option he is stuck passing to these days.
Results: The Suns need to re-build, and with that comes the hardest decision of all - what to do with Nash. He's the face of the franchise and the only reason left for fans to show up for games. He's too classy a guy to try to force his way out and seems willing to stick it out for the team he agreed to sign with. Still, it's a shame to see a talent like him waste his remaining years on a team going nowhere. For Phoenix, he has a large contract and is their only valuable trading asset. He could command a large ransom in young players, expiring contracts and draft picks if he were to be made available. It's a very tough situation, but at this point trading him seems like the right thing for both sides.
Portland Trailblazers - B-
Right: LaMarcus Aldridge is having the best season of his career and established himself as one of the top 10 power forwards in the league. Wes Matthews is showing why Portland gave him so much money to get him there and Nicolas Batum has been great at times (although those two never seem to play well during the same stretches, partly because they take minutes away from each other).
Wrong: Injuries have once again destroyed this team. Greg Oden will miss the entire season.... again. He's played a total of 82 games in his 4 year career. Brandon Roy's season is in doubt as well. He's been out for about a month with a bad knee that will never be the same. They also just lost Marcus Camby for at least a month.
Result: Despite the never ending string of injuries, the Blazers are clinging to the 8th seed in the West. Eventually the loss of players will result in more losses in games, giving other teams a chance to leap over them to take their playoff spot. They should consider trading away some pieces that don't factor into their long term plans, such as Andre Miller.
Sacramento Kings - F
Right: Not much has gone right for the Kings so far, which explains why they find themselves in the cellar of the Western Conference. At least DeMarcus Cousins has shown enough potential to expect him to become a valuable big man in the near future, but he needs to cut down on the attitude and fouls.
Wrong: Tyreke Evans has taken a step back after his Rookie of the Year campaign. Injuries are partially to blame, as he's attempted to play through a variety of injuries, but his shot selection also needs work. His .461 True Shooting Percentage is one of the worst in the league for point guards.
Result: If they keep getting high lottery picks every year then they have to become good eventually, right?
San Antonio Spurs - A+
Right: The biggest surprise of the season might be how dominant the Spurs have been. We knew they would likely be a playoff team, but most expected the aging group of veterans to coast into one of the lower seeds in the West and try to get by on their experience in the playoffs. To our surprise, they have easily been the best team in the regular season so far and appear to be in a good position to lock up the top seed in either conference. Even more surprising is how they have gone about doing it. Led by Tim Duncan, the Spurs have always been a team that won on the defensive end. On offense they were... well, a bit boring. Not anymore. The offense no longer runs through Duncan (although he can still turn it up when needed) and instead goes through Tony Parker and Manu Ginoblli, who is having his best season. They have turned into a high scoring offense that also leads the league in offensive efficiency.
Wrong: Hard to find anything wrong with a team that only has 6 losses to this point and leads the league in point differential. One potential flaw could be with Richard Jefferson. He got off to a good start, helping people forget last season's miserable year where he seemed lost on his new team. Over the past month he has regressed back to last year's woes. He needs to get back to how he played earlier in the season.
Result: The Spurs should get the top seed in the West. They play so well at home that having home court through the playoffs could mean another title is in their future.
Toronto Raptors - D
Right: Andrea Bargnani has stepped up his game by averaging a career high 21.5 points per game. He's the top option for Toronto these days, for lack of a better option. Rookie Ed Davis got a late start to the season, but has given steady production in limited minutes. Surprisingly, he is 2nd among rookies in PER (15.89)
Wrong: Since Chris Bosh departed over the summer, the Raptors are left without a star player to build around. Bargnani is a former #1 overall pick, but he lacks star power and isn't the type of dominant player that can carry a team.
Result: Canada's team is rebuilding in the post-Bosh era and will hope for a high lottery pick this summer.
Utah Jazz - B
Right: Deron Williams is having an outstanding season and is in the select group at the top of the elite point guards in the league. Paul Milsap has stepped up to fill the void by the departure of Carlos Boozer. With the addition of Al Jefferson, their front court is even more formidable than before despite losing their All-Star power forward.
Wrong: Mehmet Okur has missed most of the season due to injury and hasn't played well since his return. His time on the court has been limited so far, but even on a per minute basis his numbers are down across the board. Their bench is pretty depleted after an off-season that saw some key rotation players move on and their replacements haven't done enough to fill the void.
Result: The Jazz are right in the middle of a pack of contending teams where only half a game separates the 3 seed from the 6 seed. They have a lot of work to do if they hope to move higher than that, but they should be able to stay within their current range at least.
Washington Wizards - D
Right: John Wall has energized the team with his exciting style of play by averaging over 15 points and 9 assists, while ranking in the top 10 in the league in steals. If Blake Griffin weren't already running away with the award then Wall would deserve some consideration. The biggest success of the season may have been finding someone to take Gilbert Arenas when they traded him to Orlando for Rashard Lewis. It's essentially a swap of bad contracts, but both players badly needed a change of scenery and the Wizards can now wash their hands of Arenas and move on from the gun related drama he put them through last year.
Wrong: The Wizards are competing to be one of the 5 worst teams in the league. They have been respectable in front of their home fans, but are a miserable 0-20 on the road, the only team in the league that hasn't won a road game.
Result: They have a good young nucleus with Wall, Andre Blatche and JaVale McGee that they can build around, but it will take time for the kids to grow up and they need to add some other pieces around them before they can hope to contend for a playoff spot.
Monday, January 17, 2011
NFL Divisional Playoffs Review
The second round of the NFL playoffs featured the final four teams in each conference. In a reverse of last week's predictions, I actually got 3 out of the 4 games right. Although each game was higher scoring than I anticipated - what ever happened to defense winning in the playoffs? Unfortunately, the one game I got wrong was the one I cared about the most. I'm sure you can guess which one.
One year after the two top seeded teams made it to the Super Bowl, the top seeds this year have been eliminated in only the second round.
Here are some things that I noticed this week:
One year after the two top seeded teams made it to the Super Bowl, the top seeds this year have been eliminated in only the second round.
Here are some things that I noticed this week:
- We knew this game would be physical. Steelers vs. Ravens part III had been compared to everything from a war to Armageddon, and it didn't disappoint. During the regular season they split their match-ups, with each team winning on the road by 3 points. The home team got the win this week, but as I predicated, it was by 3 points.
- These are supposed to be two of the toughest defenses in the league, so how did this one become so high scoring? Their regular season match-ups were not.
- Hines Ward and Ed Reed fueled the rivalry with plenty of trash talk on the field. They went at it a couple of times and needed to be separated by teammates and officials.
- Neither team was able to get much done in the running game, with each team's stud RBs being held to under 3 yards per carry and under 50 yards each (Rice - 32, Mendenhall - 46), but they each reached the endzone.
- Another poor postseason performance for Joe Flacco (125 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 61.1 rating). Just when you think he's ready to turn the corner, he lets you down again.
- Ray Rice had not fumbled all year, so of course he lets one get away in this game. Great defensive play by Ryan Clark to punch it loose, but Rice needed to keep the ball tucked into his body more. A rare mistake for him, and it cost them.
- Despite the high score, there were plenty of other big defensive plays in the game. The Steelers forced 3 turnovers and had 5 sacks, while the Ravens forced a couple of turnovers as well while recording 6 sacks.
- I had a feeling going into this game that the Packers were the team with all the momentum, but I didn't expect this kind of a blow out. They went on the road to Atlanta to destroy the Falcons, 48-21.
- Aaron Rodgers had a huge game (366, 3 TDs, 136.8 rating). If the Packers win the Super Bowl then he may supplant Drew Brees as the NFC's best QB.
- Matt Ryan showed a lot of improvement this year, but he's not quite at the level yet where he can get it done in the playoffs.
- Greg Jennings' early fumble put the Packers in a first quarter hole, but apparently the hole wasn't big enough because they had no trouble climbing out. After being essentially a non-factor last week, Jennings had a big day, despite the turnover.
- I realize the game was out of reach given the 27 point deficit with only 2 minutes left, but I was disappointed to see the Falcons punt the ball at the end. It's the playoffs, win or go home! By punting the ball they essentially ended the game (the Packers knelt down to end the game on the next play). Why not go for it on 4th down? If you don't convert then the game's over anyway. Who cares about field position, they aren't going to try to score again. By running on 3rd down and punting on 4th the Falcons sent the message that they had accepted defeat and just wanted the game to end. A miracle comeback probably wouldn't have happened anyway, but why wouldn't you try?
- Speaking of miracles, the Seahawks improbable run was finally stopped in Chicago. They made a valiant comeback attempt by scoring 3 TDs in the 4th quarter, making Matt Hasselbeck's day look much better than it actually was. It was too little, too late, as the Bears had dominated them too much through the first 3 quarters. Don't be deceived by the box score. Most of those stats for Seattle were accumulated during garbage time, so their offense wasn't really that good and the Bears defense wasn't as bad as it looked.
- Nonetheless, I give Seattle credit for attempting a furious comeback attempt rather than lying down and taking a loss like the other birds did this week.
- As I've said before, it's hard to trust the Bears because you never know when the "bad" Cutler will strike and throw away a game. This week we saw the "good" Cutler, who made good decisions, found open receivers and didn't turn the ball over.
- One of his best throws of the game came on their first drive when Cutler connected with TE Greg Olson for a 58 yard TD. Olson's production dropped this season due to the change in offensive philosophy. Mike Martz's offense requires TE's to stay in and block more and are often ignored in the passing game. Yet Olson came up with several big catches in this game and was the Bears' leading receiver.
- Now for the hard part. The part I've been dreading since yesterday. The top seeded Patriots, led by MVP favorite Tom Brady, genius coach Bill Belichick and everyone's pick to win the Super Bowl.... lost at home to the underdog Jets. Excuse me while I go throw up.
- For most fans that have no ties to either team it's sometimes fun to root for the underdog. The problem is, the Jets never really came across as the typical lovable underdog. Despite that nobody picked them to win this game, they talked so much trash leading up to the game that it was clear they certainly didn't consider themselves underdogs. Is there anyone outside of NY that even likes this team?
- The worst part about this loss isn't that the Patriots won't get a chance at another Super Bowl this year. The worst part is that now we have to listen to Rex Ryan and the Jets gloat all week about how they are the better team. I have a headache already just thinking about it. Had the Patriots won they wouldn't have said a word, other than that they respect their opponents, they played a good game and they are ready to move on. The Jets won't do that, they'll shove it down our throats all week, until they eventually lose in Pittsburgh next week. Congrats to the Jets, they played a great game and deserved to win this week. It doesn't mean they are a better team, but they played better this week and that's all that matters. Move on and prepare for your next game instead of talking trash about a game you already won. Keep it classy Jets.
- Leading up to the game Rex Ryan somehow turned this game into a battle between himself and Belichick (funny, I thought the players were the ones out on the field). Now we have to listen to Rex gloat about how he's now the best coach in history? Here's the problem though. What did Rex Ryan do to out coach Belichick in this game? I give him credit for having his team prepared, but it's not like the Patriots weren't prepared too. They just didn't execute and the Jets did.
- You could argue that Rex's coaching nearly cost them the game in the end. They had the ball with a 7 point lead in the red zone with under two minutes to go in the game. Why even run another play when it could potentially lead to a turnover that would give the Pats a chance to comeback? They could have knelt down three times to force the Patriots to use their final two timeouts, then kick a short field goal to go up by 10 with only about a minute remaining. Instead, they decide to run the ball and end up scoring on a 16 yard run by Shonn Greene. So they go up by 14 points, seemingly sealing the win. Probably true, but why take that chance? Why even give Brady another chance to get the ball. Instead of scoring, Greene should dropped to the ground once he picked up the first down. Kneel downs then could have ended the game to seal the Jets victory. Why didn't Rex tell his players this? Instead, they got overly excited about another TD. So excited that Rex nearly pulled a hamstring running onto the field to celebrate with his team. So excited that it cost them a 15 yard penalty for excessive celebration. Plus there is still over a minute and a half left. Brady marched the Pats quickly down the field and scored a TD with 30 seconds left to make it a one score game again. All it would have taken is an on side kick recovery, which they almost got, and Brady would have one last chance to even the game. It didn't happen, and it probably wouldn't have happened, but it could have, because Rex and the Jets kept that chance alive instead of just ending the game. They got a little too cocky in the end and it almost cost them. That's not great coaching.
- Not that the Patriots aren't guilty of some questionable play calling as well. Trailing by 10 points in the 4th quarter the Pats drove down into Jets territory with a series of short passes and runs up the middle by Danny Woodhead. I can understand that they did it because the Jets weren't expecting it, therefore the running game was working, but it took way too much time. The drive took almost 8 minutes off the clock and they came away empty handed in the end.
- The Patriots got as close as the 31 yard line, but a sack pushed them back a few yards and may have altered the game. Brady was sacked 5 times in the game, but this was the most costly. Had Brady just thrown the ball away then they still could have kicked a manageable 48 yard field goal. The sack pushed them back to where it would have been more like 51 yards. I think they would have been better off trying a kick from that distance rather than going for it on 4th and 14, but if they hadn't lost those few yards on the sack then it's more likely they would have taken the points.
- Speaking of that failed 4th down attempt - the throw wasn't great, but Branch got his hands on it and should have caught it. With the game on the line, that's a catch you have to make. If he makes the catch and the Pats go on to score then we'd be talking about another genius moment for Belichick and the outcome could have been much different.
- Near the end of the first half the Patriots attempted a fake punt from around mid-field. Patrick Chung mishandled the snap and turned the ball over. There wasn't much time left, but the short field allowed the Jets to score another TD to take a 14-3 lead into the half. Had they punted the ball away and backed them up further the Jets likely would not have had time to score. Even if Chung didn't fumble the snap, it didn't look like he was going to get a first down anyway. If it worked it would have been clever, but it's failure is yet another ugly stain on this game.
- Perhaps Brady set the bar too high for himself because we are so used to him winning these types of games. He didn't play that poorly, he just wasn't good enough by his standards.
- Brady set an NFL record for consecutive passes this season without an Interception. He hadn't thrown an Interception since week 6 against Baltimore (and that was on a Hail Mary attempt at the end of regulation, so he can't really be blamed for that). So of course he throws a pick on the Pats first drive of the game. It didn't end up hurting too much since the Jets missed a FG on their next drive, but considering the turn over occurred in Jets territory, it likely took away a chance for at least 3 points. It was a bad play all around, as the Jets appeared to be prepared for the screen pass. The pass sailed too high and was easily picked off.
- Here's the biggest issue I had with Belichick's coaching in this game. He benched Wes Welker for the first series of the game due to his tongue in cheek press conference where he made several veiled references to feet as a shot at Rex Ryan. It was hilarious to everyone else, but Belichick wasn't happy about it. So reprimand him if you must, but why do so in a way that hurts the team in the biggest game of the year? That's not to say that the turnover wouldn't have happened anyway, but had their best receiver been out on the field maybe the entire drive would have turned out differently.
- Alge Crumpler had some big ups and downs in this game. He saved a TD by running down David Harris after the Interception. The veteran TE also added a TD of his own later in the game, but he also dropped a sure TD in the first quarter. The Pats had to settle for a FG on the drive. Those four points we missed out on may have altered the game plan at the end of the game.
- Mark Sanchez's state line was pretty good (194, 3 TDs, 127.3 rating), but I don't see how he really out played Brady by that much. He's getting a bit too much credit. Watching him play, he didn't look that great and was his usual inconsistent self for most of the game. The difference between his game and Brady's is the Jets receivers made big plays while the Pats receivers dropped the ball in key situations. The Jets played an all around great game, but I didn't see anything that led me to believe they won because of Sanchez. They win with him, not because of him.
- The Patriots have now lost three consecutive playoff games: Super Bowl XLII against the Giants, last years meltdown against the Ravens, and now this. They are 4-5 overall in the playoffs since their last Super Bowl title. Brady will no doubt be in the Hall of Fame, but if this trend continues then it may impact where he inevitably ranks along with the games best QBs in history.
- Great, so now I'm stuck having to see either the load mouth Jets or the Ben Rape-lisberger led Steelers in the Super Bowl. Those are probably my least two favorite teams. I'm officially hoping on the Green Bay Packers bandwagon. Just hand me one of those cheese head hats, I'm going all in on the Packers!
Friday, January 14, 2011
NFL Divisional Playoffs Preview
Ok, so I didn't do very well in my predictions last week. In fact, only one of the teams that I predicted actually won their game last week. Thanks, Baltimore, for saving me from a goose egg. That's the funny thing about predictions, is that they are just an educated guess of what we think will happen, not what we know will happen. As far as I know, there are no psychics that can predict these things. If you meet someone who claims to be a psychic then you may want to ask yourself why they are living in a circus tent instead of using their "gifts" to cash in and become rich. No, we can't see the future and we can't predict with 100% accuracy who will win the game, no matter how much of a lock it appears to be (see Saints fans sadly nodding their heads). So if you lost lots of money in Vegas last weekend due to my predictions then I apologize. I'll try to do better this week.
There are four teams left in each conference battling it out for a chance to move on to the conference title game. In the AFC we're treated to two rubber match games that pit division rivals that split their regular season games against each other. In the NFC we get to see the top seeded Falcons host the team that might actually be the best team in the conference. Oh yea, and those surprising Seahawks get to continue the "nobody believed in us" tour to Chicago.
Here are my predictions for this week:
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
This should be a good old fashioned slobber-knocker. The AFC North rivals split the season series with each team winning on the road. Despite being the Wild Card team, the Ravens will come in with plenty of confidence. Both teams bring a physical, punishing defense. It's going to get ugly, it's going to be messy, but it's going to be a lot of fun to watch.
Like just about everyone else in the league, the Ravens struggled to run the ball in their two games against the Steelers this season. Ray Rice was essentially a non-factor in both games, even in the passing game. If they take him out of this game it puts a lot of pressure on Joe Flacco to carry the load. I'm not sure he's up to it.
The Steelers benefit from the bye week, which allowed them to rest their banged up defense, particularly Troy Polamalu. Both teams are going to find it tough to run in this game, which plays against their strengths, but if it comes down to a QB battle between Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger then Big Ben is the guy I'd lean toward. The Ravens secondary is beatable, especially for someone with the speed of Mike Wallace, but I expect them to limit the deep plays by using Safety Ed Reed to play over on his side. If Roethlisberger tries to force it deep to Wallace it will give Ed Reed, who led the league in Interceptions despite missing 6 games, a chance to make a play that could turn the tide in this game.
If the Steelers can avoid losing the turnover battle and dumb penalties (not sure if you've heard, but the league is out to get the Steelers. Just ask them) then the edge in QBs and the home field advantage should be enough to pull out a hard fought win.
Steelers 17, Ravens 14
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons
Can we consider this the real NFC title game? I would expect the winner of this game to be heavy favorites against which ever team wins the other NFC match-up this week.
The Packers proved last week that they do in fact have a running game with James Starks leading the way. Whether they can carry that over to another game against a better opponent is yet to be seen, but the Falcons surely saw what they did against the Eagles and will at least have to prepare for it. Aaron Rodgers is near the top of the elite QBs in the league. He has a reliable veteran in Driver to compliment his big play making receiver, Greg Jennings. They have such an explosive offense that sometimes people forget that they had the league's 5th ranked defense, thanks to a punishing pass rush led by Clay Matthews (13.5 sacks).
As good as the Packers defense was overall, they were only middle of the pack in rush defense. The Falcons would be wise to keep Michael Turner involved, as they don't want to try to have Matt Ryan beat Rodgers in a shoot out. Atlanta is a very balanced offense, as they were above average in both passing and rushing, but not dominant in either. Roddy White is one of the league's best receivers (2nd in yardage) and Tony Gonzalez is as reliable a target as you'll find. They should be able to find ways to mix things up enough to move the ball.
A few weeks ago the Falcons had a perception around the league of being invincible at home. They had been undefeated through most of the season at home and Matt Ryan had only lost one home game in his entire career. That all ended in Week 16 in a Monday Night showdown against the Saints. While the loss didn't end up having any impact on their playoff spot, it did deflate the Aura of their dominance in the Georgia Dome. The Packers will come in with a little more confidence knowing that the Falcons can be beaten at home. The Packers have more momentum coming into the game, which could be enough to pull off the upset. They may be peaking at the right time, while the Falcons may have peaked too early.
Packers 27, Falcons 23
Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears
I still can't believe that a 7-9 team even made the playoffs, but I'm even more shocked that they were able to pull off an upset victory over the defending champion Saints. Maybe they deserve a little more credit then they've been given, but I still can't see them winning on the road. They won't have the crowd noise to help them as their 12th man and the Bears won't underestimate them like the Saints did. There's also no way they are putting up 41 points against the Bears defense. Give Hasselbeck and their offense credit for what they did last week, but they'll come back down to earth this week.
Part of the reason the Saints lost last week is because the Seahawks kept starting their drives early in the game with great field position because the Saints were too afraid to kick off to Leon Washington. Chicago's Devin Hester is an even more dangerous kick returner. Will either team bother to kick off deep to allow them a chance at a return? Will both teams just keep trying on-side kicks?
I know, Seattle went to Chicago earlier this season and won, but don't expect them to do it again.
Then again... you never know when Jay Cutler will de-rail his team with one of his classic 4 Interception performances. This is a guy that has a losing record in his career (including college) and has never won a playoff game. He led the league in Interceptions last year (26) and while he did cut down to only 16 this year, he also fumbled 9 times and was sacked 52 times (6 of them in the game against Seattle).
Still, I just can't pick a team that went 2-6 on the road this year to win a road playoff game.
Barring a Cutler melt-down (which we can't completely discount as a possibility) the Bears should move on to the next round thanks to their defense and special teams.
Chicago 20, Seahawks 13
New York Jets at New England Patriots
It's round three of this bitter rivalry. The Jets are off to a fast start in the trash talking category, as they've spent all week dissing Brady and the Pats. Most people that know him seem to think Tom Brady is a nice guy, but Antonio Cromartie thinks he's an A-Hole. Classy move Cromartie, you're clearly a stand up guy yourself. If you have had 9 kids with 8 different women, what does that make you?
Meanwhile, Rex Ryan is doing his best to turn this into a game that is all about him beating Belichick. Last I checked, the players are the ones out on the field, so maybe they'll have some impact on this game. That was essentially Belichick's response. Typical Belichick. Basically he's the opposite of Rex, who seems to be causing a media storm in order to divert attention away from the embarrassment of the leaked video of his wife's foot fetish video.
As for the Patriots players, they won't come out and battle the Jets through the media, although Wes Welker's deadpan press conference was hilarious.
In their first meeting, the Jets won because Brady tried to force the ball to Randy Moss to feed his ego. That game may have been the first step toward Moss' surprise exit two weeks later. The Patriots rebuilt their offense on the fly and have become even more dominant without the man who was once considered the most explosive receiver in league history. When the teams met again later this season, the new look Pats destroyed the Jets to the tune of a 45-3 beatdown.
Many will look at that most recent game and expect another Pats blow-out victory, but I expect this game to be much closer. The Jets will be better prepared this time and will have that disastrous loss to use as motivation for this game. They will bring their A game.
However, their A game probably won't be good enough. The Patriots are just too good. The Jets defense is great, but the Patriots will nullify most of their strengths by spreading the ball around? Who is Revis going to shut down in this game? Deion Branch? Fine, Brady will feed the ball to Welker out of the slot. Or use his two rookie tight ends, who the Jets safeties will struggle to cover. While the Jets have two elite corners, they don't have the depth in their secondary to stop all of the weapons the Patriots have. Their offense is much more unpredictable then the Randy Moss team that the Jets beat early in the season.
The Patriots defense has been their weakness, particularly their pass defense, which ranked 30th in the league. However, the defense did play much better down the stretch and will be well rested after a bye week. Mark Sanchez doesn't seem like he's good enough to take advantage of this weakness, despite having some capable weapons to work with. He was very inconsistent this year and looked horrible last week, despite beating the Colts. There are rumors that he is playing hurt, which would not bode well for the Jets. They barely squeaked past the Colts (mostly due to bad kick return coverage and poor coaching decisions with a late timeout) and will have to play much better this week to have a chance.
The Jets are 2-2 against the Patriots in the Rex Ryan era, but have lost both games in Foxborough. This game won't be any different.
Patriots 27, Jets 23
There are four teams left in each conference battling it out for a chance to move on to the conference title game. In the AFC we're treated to two rubber match games that pit division rivals that split their regular season games against each other. In the NFC we get to see the top seeded Falcons host the team that might actually be the best team in the conference. Oh yea, and those surprising Seahawks get to continue the "nobody believed in us" tour to Chicago.
Here are my predictions for this week:
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
This should be a good old fashioned slobber-knocker. The AFC North rivals split the season series with each team winning on the road. Despite being the Wild Card team, the Ravens will come in with plenty of confidence. Both teams bring a physical, punishing defense. It's going to get ugly, it's going to be messy, but it's going to be a lot of fun to watch.
Like just about everyone else in the league, the Ravens struggled to run the ball in their two games against the Steelers this season. Ray Rice was essentially a non-factor in both games, even in the passing game. If they take him out of this game it puts a lot of pressure on Joe Flacco to carry the load. I'm not sure he's up to it.
The Steelers benefit from the bye week, which allowed them to rest their banged up defense, particularly Troy Polamalu. Both teams are going to find it tough to run in this game, which plays against their strengths, but if it comes down to a QB battle between Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger then Big Ben is the guy I'd lean toward. The Ravens secondary is beatable, especially for someone with the speed of Mike Wallace, but I expect them to limit the deep plays by using Safety Ed Reed to play over on his side. If Roethlisberger tries to force it deep to Wallace it will give Ed Reed, who led the league in Interceptions despite missing 6 games, a chance to make a play that could turn the tide in this game.
If the Steelers can avoid losing the turnover battle and dumb penalties (not sure if you've heard, but the league is out to get the Steelers. Just ask them) then the edge in QBs and the home field advantage should be enough to pull out a hard fought win.
Steelers 17, Ravens 14
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons
Can we consider this the real NFC title game? I would expect the winner of this game to be heavy favorites against which ever team wins the other NFC match-up this week.
The Packers proved last week that they do in fact have a running game with James Starks leading the way. Whether they can carry that over to another game against a better opponent is yet to be seen, but the Falcons surely saw what they did against the Eagles and will at least have to prepare for it. Aaron Rodgers is near the top of the elite QBs in the league. He has a reliable veteran in Driver to compliment his big play making receiver, Greg Jennings. They have such an explosive offense that sometimes people forget that they had the league's 5th ranked defense, thanks to a punishing pass rush led by Clay Matthews (13.5 sacks).
As good as the Packers defense was overall, they were only middle of the pack in rush defense. The Falcons would be wise to keep Michael Turner involved, as they don't want to try to have Matt Ryan beat Rodgers in a shoot out. Atlanta is a very balanced offense, as they were above average in both passing and rushing, but not dominant in either. Roddy White is one of the league's best receivers (2nd in yardage) and Tony Gonzalez is as reliable a target as you'll find. They should be able to find ways to mix things up enough to move the ball.
A few weeks ago the Falcons had a perception around the league of being invincible at home. They had been undefeated through most of the season at home and Matt Ryan had only lost one home game in his entire career. That all ended in Week 16 in a Monday Night showdown against the Saints. While the loss didn't end up having any impact on their playoff spot, it did deflate the Aura of their dominance in the Georgia Dome. The Packers will come in with a little more confidence knowing that the Falcons can be beaten at home. The Packers have more momentum coming into the game, which could be enough to pull off the upset. They may be peaking at the right time, while the Falcons may have peaked too early.
Packers 27, Falcons 23
Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears
I still can't believe that a 7-9 team even made the playoffs, but I'm even more shocked that they were able to pull off an upset victory over the defending champion Saints. Maybe they deserve a little more credit then they've been given, but I still can't see them winning on the road. They won't have the crowd noise to help them as their 12th man and the Bears won't underestimate them like the Saints did. There's also no way they are putting up 41 points against the Bears defense. Give Hasselbeck and their offense credit for what they did last week, but they'll come back down to earth this week.
Part of the reason the Saints lost last week is because the Seahawks kept starting their drives early in the game with great field position because the Saints were too afraid to kick off to Leon Washington. Chicago's Devin Hester is an even more dangerous kick returner. Will either team bother to kick off deep to allow them a chance at a return? Will both teams just keep trying on-side kicks?
I know, Seattle went to Chicago earlier this season and won, but don't expect them to do it again.
Then again... you never know when Jay Cutler will de-rail his team with one of his classic 4 Interception performances. This is a guy that has a losing record in his career (including college) and has never won a playoff game. He led the league in Interceptions last year (26) and while he did cut down to only 16 this year, he also fumbled 9 times and was sacked 52 times (6 of them in the game against Seattle).
Still, I just can't pick a team that went 2-6 on the road this year to win a road playoff game.
Barring a Cutler melt-down (which we can't completely discount as a possibility) the Bears should move on to the next round thanks to their defense and special teams.
Chicago 20, Seahawks 13
New York Jets at New England Patriots
It's round three of this bitter rivalry. The Jets are off to a fast start in the trash talking category, as they've spent all week dissing Brady and the Pats. Most people that know him seem to think Tom Brady is a nice guy, but Antonio Cromartie thinks he's an A-Hole. Classy move Cromartie, you're clearly a stand up guy yourself. If you have had 9 kids with 8 different women, what does that make you?
Meanwhile, Rex Ryan is doing his best to turn this into a game that is all about him beating Belichick. Last I checked, the players are the ones out on the field, so maybe they'll have some impact on this game. That was essentially Belichick's response. Typical Belichick. Basically he's the opposite of Rex, who seems to be causing a media storm in order to divert attention away from the embarrassment of the leaked video of his wife's foot fetish video.
As for the Patriots players, they won't come out and battle the Jets through the media, although Wes Welker's deadpan press conference was hilarious.
In their first meeting, the Jets won because Brady tried to force the ball to Randy Moss to feed his ego. That game may have been the first step toward Moss' surprise exit two weeks later. The Patriots rebuilt their offense on the fly and have become even more dominant without the man who was once considered the most explosive receiver in league history. When the teams met again later this season, the new look Pats destroyed the Jets to the tune of a 45-3 beatdown.
Many will look at that most recent game and expect another Pats blow-out victory, but I expect this game to be much closer. The Jets will be better prepared this time and will have that disastrous loss to use as motivation for this game. They will bring their A game.
However, their A game probably won't be good enough. The Patriots are just too good. The Jets defense is great, but the Patriots will nullify most of their strengths by spreading the ball around? Who is Revis going to shut down in this game? Deion Branch? Fine, Brady will feed the ball to Welker out of the slot. Or use his two rookie tight ends, who the Jets safeties will struggle to cover. While the Jets have two elite corners, they don't have the depth in their secondary to stop all of the weapons the Patriots have. Their offense is much more unpredictable then the Randy Moss team that the Jets beat early in the season.
The Patriots defense has been their weakness, particularly their pass defense, which ranked 30th in the league. However, the defense did play much better down the stretch and will be well rested after a bye week. Mark Sanchez doesn't seem like he's good enough to take advantage of this weakness, despite having some capable weapons to work with. He was very inconsistent this year and looked horrible last week, despite beating the Colts. There are rumors that he is playing hurt, which would not bode well for the Jets. They barely squeaked past the Colts (mostly due to bad kick return coverage and poor coaching decisions with a late timeout) and will have to play much better this week to have a chance.
The Jets are 2-2 against the Patriots in the Rex Ryan era, but have lost both games in Foxborough. This game won't be any different.
Patriots 27, Jets 23
Monday, January 10, 2011
Wild Card Review
The NFL Playoffs kicked off this weekend with the #3 and #4 seed division winners hosting the Wild Card teams in each conference. None of the match-ups this weekend featured a game where the home team had a better record than the road team. The 11-5 Jets played at the 10-6 Colts, the 12-4 Ravens played at the 10-6 Chiefs, the 11-5 Saints will played at the 7-9 Seahawks and the 10-6 Packers will played at the 10-6 Eagles.
My predictions for this week didn't turn out very well, as I only picked the correct winner in one of the four games (Baltimore), and even in that one I wasn't even close on the score. Home field is supposed to be a big advantage in the playoffs, yet only one home team won this week... and it's not the one we all expected! As they say, that's why they play the games. If it was easy to predict the winners then teams wouldn't bother to show up and we'd all win a lot of money in Vegas.
Here are some things that I noticed this week:
My predictions for this week didn't turn out very well, as I only picked the correct winner in one of the four games (Baltimore), and even in that one I wasn't even close on the score. Home field is supposed to be a big advantage in the playoffs, yet only one home team won this week... and it's not the one we all expected! As they say, that's why they play the games. If it was easy to predict the winners then teams wouldn't bother to show up and we'd all win a lot of money in Vegas.
Here are some things that I noticed this week:
- If Seattle (7-9) is the worst team in history to make the playoffs, then does that make their win over the defending champion Saints the biggest upset of all time? Nobody can honestly claim they saw this one coming. Not even fans from Seattle.
- New Orleans knew the playoffs started this weekend, right? This wasn't just a meaningless end of the season game? It sure didn't look like it. After getting out to an early 10-0 lead they quickly fell apart.
- Who knew the Seahawks were even capable of putting up 41 points in a game? If you give up 4 TDs to Matt Hasselbeck and let Marshawn Lynch run wild against you then your defense can't be trying very hard.
- On Lynch's 67 yard TD run, the Saints defense showed some of the worst tackling you'll see in a playoff game. They looked like they had no interest in tackling him on a run that essentially clinched the game for Seattle. Sure, Lynch broke some tackles, but several Saints defenders stood around either assuming their teammate would make the tackle or not caring.
- The crowd noise at Qwest Field, which is considered to be the loudest stadium in the league, was insane. Credit the Seattle fans for being the "12th man" in support of their team. The noise may have helped lead to a couple of false start penalties by the Saints, but that's not really what cost them. Drew Brees and the offense weren't the problem.
- I really wanted the Jets and Colts to both lose, but apparently that's not actually possible. You can't even tie in the postseason (right Donovan McNabb?), so one of these teams had to win.
- As a Patriots fan it was hard to root for either, but it does work out in our favor that the Jets won, so they will now have to travel to New England next week. Baltimore is the team that should scare the Pats the most, after last years postseason meltdown and the fact that they barely beat them earlier this year, so the loss by the Colts means the Ravens will play the Steelers instead.
- The Jets offense used the right game plan against the Colts - run the ball and control the time of possession to give Manning less opportunities to score. LT and Greene each had around 20 touches and the Jets had the ball for about 6 minutes more than the Colts.
- Reggie Wayne took another trip to his least favorite vacation spot in the world - Revis Island. He was held to one catch for only one yard. With some of Manning's most trusted targets sidelined for the game (Clark, Collie) they couldn't afford for their best receiver to have a dud.
- When Adam Vinatieri's 50 yard kick was blasted through the goal posts we all thought that he had added another chapter to his legendary kicking career. Not this time. They left less than a minute on the clock, but the Jets got great field position after returning the kick-off to the 46 yard line. A few plays later they were in field goal range to kick the game winner as time expired.
- The best part about seeing the Colts lose - the Manning Face!
- The Ravens were the one team I picked to win this week that actually came through! I thought it would be closer, but the Chiefs ended up getting crushed.
- Matt Cassel was terrible (70 passing yards, 3 Interceptions, 20.4 QB Rating). So much for him making the leap to elite level.
- "Where's Waldo" may now be replaced with "Where's Bowe." The man that lead the league in TD catches this year didn't catch a single ball all game. I don't think that he was even targeted.
- Jamaal Charles looked great early in the game, but when they fell behind by so much he essentially was taken out of the game plan and ended up with only 9 carries.
- Ray Rice didn't particularly dominate in any phase of the game, but contributed a fair amount with both rushing and receiving to end up just short of 100 total yards.
- Despite having a winning record in his playoff career, Flacco generally hasn't played well in his short postseason career. Even in the win against New England last year his stats looked similar to what Cassel did this week. He came through this time (265 passing yards, 2 TDs, 115.4 QB Rating).
- Having Anquan Boldin as a target this year certainly helps. Their offense has become just as dangerous as their defense.
- Those that doubted the Packers chances pointed out that their lack of a running game would be the Achilles heel that costs them in the post season. So of course James Starks runs for 123 yards in a win against the Eagles. So much for that theory.
- Aaron Rodgers finally got his first playoff victory, earning the right to be included in the discussion for the league's best QBs. He still needs to win a Super Bowl in order to make it to the Brady/Manning/Brees level though.
- DeSean Jackson left the game in the first half after getting his knee twisted under a pile of players. When he was out of the game the Eagles struggled to move the ball without their deep threat. He later returned to catch a couple of passes, but seemed to lack some of his usual explosiveness.
- Michael Vick also suffered an injury later in the game. It wasn't enough to take him out of the game, but perhaps it took away from his game a bit, as he didn't attempt to break off any of his trademark scrambles after he got hurt.
- Pro Bowl kicker David Akers, one of the most reliable kickers in league history, missed 2 of his attempts in the game. Considering they lost by 5 points, those field goals may have helped. Even if he only converted one of them, he'd get a chance to win the game in the end instead of the Eagles being forced to go for another TD. Vick threw an Interception in the endzone when he tried to force a pass as the clock ticked away.
- I joined a Fantasy Football salary cap league for the playoffs. Anyone who picked Matt Hasselbeck, Marshawn Lynch, James Starks, Pierre Garcon, and Brandon Stokley probably had a great week. Wait, nobody took any of those guys? With popular picks like DeSean Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Reggie Wayne, Greg Jennings, and LeSean McCoy all contributing well below their season averages (or in some cases, nothing!), there were a lot of disappointed owners in these leagues. Don't even get me started on the Saints defense! They seemed like such a no brainer pick heading into the weekend.
Friday, January 7, 2011
Wild Card Weekend
The NFL playoffs open up with the #3 and #4 seeds taking on the Wild Card teams in each conference. The top seeds are off with a bye this week, but there's still plenty of talented teams to cover (well, except for Seattle). Let's take a look at each match-up to predict who's going to advance and which teams will get to start preparing for their off-season.
New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks
Is there even a chance that this game will be close? Sorry Seattle, but at 7-9 it's an atrocity that you even get to host a playoff game. Qwest field is a tough place to play in, but don't expect Drew Brees to get rattled. He should have a huge day against a pretty ordinary pass defense. All the injuries they have at running back could hurt them in the long run, but they have plenty of weapons for this game.
The Seahawks need a miracle to win this one, which isn't happening unless it turns out that Charlie Whitehurst actually is Jesus.
Saints 35 - Seahawks 13
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts
Is it bad that I want both of these teams to lose? We saw this match-up in last years AFC championship game and the outcome was the same as it was just about every time Manning faces the Jets. Rex Ryan will try to blitz Manning all day. When that doesn't work, he'll blitz some more. Unfortunately, that plays exactly into what Manning wants him to do. The difference this year is that Manning is missing a lot of his weapons that he needs to exploit this (Collie, Clark). Revis should be able to essentially take Reggie Wayne out of the game, so it's up to the other Colts receivers to step up. I'm not sure how much I trust Pierre Garcon to do that, so Manning may be forced to look to some of his lesser known receivers. Tamme could have a big day. While he's no Dallas Clark, he proved to be a reliable option, and the Jets safeties have trouble containing Tight Ends.
The Jets will need to control the clock by running the ball down their throats to keep Manning off the field as much as possible. Sanchez isn't going to win in a shootout with Manning. The problem is, the Jets running game isn't as good as it was last year. LT faded drastically down the stretch and Shonn Greene never stepped up. For as bad as the Colts run defense was this year, they did get a lot better down the stretch.
The Colts come in on a roll, winning their last 4 games of the season to claim a playoff spot. The Jets on the other hand have looked inconsistent and sometimes disastrous in the second half of the season. Indy has all the momentum heading into this game. The only way the Colts blow this game is if Manning starts throwing interceptions at the same rate he did earlier this season.
Cots 24 - Jets 17
Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs deserve some credit for unexpectedly winning the AFC West, but they rode the league's easiest schedule on their way to claiming the division. They played well at home, but are coming off an embarrassing home loss against Oakland to finish the season. Matt Cassel has not looked the same the past few weeks since coming back from appendectomy surgery, with Week 17 easily being his worst game of the year. He had an unexpectedly good season, but he hasn't reached the elite level of QBs. KC needs to feed Jamaal Charles the ball as much as possible. Thomas Jones looked awful down the stretch and seems unlikely to help much, yet they continue to split carries. Charles is their most explosive playmaker, so he gives them their only chance to stay in this game.
Flacco is boarderline as an elite level QB. He needs to be more consistent. He has a winning record in the playoffs for his career, but hasn't looked very good doing it. Sometimes he still seems overwhelmed, but the Chiefs defense, as improved as it was this year, isn't good enough to throw Flacco off his game. Ray Rice should run wild, similar to what he did in last year's playoffs against the Patriots.
For what it's worth, I'll be rooting for the Chiefs because I'd rather the Patriots play them in the next round instead of Baltimore, but I have a feeling I'll be left disappointed.
Ravens 23 - Chiefs 20
Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Green Bay was a popular early season pick to go to the Super Bowl, but they were hit hard with injuries and barely managed to get into the playoffs as a Wild Card. They don't even try to pretend that they have a running game. As good as Aaron Rodgers is, it's tough to move the ball in such a one dimensional offense against good teams. Greg Jennings is likely to burn Asante Samuel when he gambles at least once for a big play, but Samuel is just as likely to pick off a pass when he guesses right.
Michael Vick has been one of the biggest stories of the season. He sat out the final week of the season with a bruised thigh, but should be good enough to go for this game. The Packers have to try to contain Vick as a runner and make him beat them as a passer. They also may need to hold a safety back to play over the top to protect against big plays from DeSean Jackson. It's tough to defend both threats at the same time. They also can't forget about Shady McCoy. The Packers can stop the run, but he's dangerous as a pass catcher out of the back field too.
Green Bay is the more complete team, but the Eagles have the most dangerous weapon on the field with Vick and have home field, giving them a slight edge.
Eagles 31, Packers 28
New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks
Is there even a chance that this game will be close? Sorry Seattle, but at 7-9 it's an atrocity that you even get to host a playoff game. Qwest field is a tough place to play in, but don't expect Drew Brees to get rattled. He should have a huge day against a pretty ordinary pass defense. All the injuries they have at running back could hurt them in the long run, but they have plenty of weapons for this game.
The Seahawks need a miracle to win this one, which isn't happening unless it turns out that Charlie Whitehurst actually is Jesus.
Saints 35 - Seahawks 13
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts
Is it bad that I want both of these teams to lose? We saw this match-up in last years AFC championship game and the outcome was the same as it was just about every time Manning faces the Jets. Rex Ryan will try to blitz Manning all day. When that doesn't work, he'll blitz some more. Unfortunately, that plays exactly into what Manning wants him to do. The difference this year is that Manning is missing a lot of his weapons that he needs to exploit this (Collie, Clark). Revis should be able to essentially take Reggie Wayne out of the game, so it's up to the other Colts receivers to step up. I'm not sure how much I trust Pierre Garcon to do that, so Manning may be forced to look to some of his lesser known receivers. Tamme could have a big day. While he's no Dallas Clark, he proved to be a reliable option, and the Jets safeties have trouble containing Tight Ends.
The Jets will need to control the clock by running the ball down their throats to keep Manning off the field as much as possible. Sanchez isn't going to win in a shootout with Manning. The problem is, the Jets running game isn't as good as it was last year. LT faded drastically down the stretch and Shonn Greene never stepped up. For as bad as the Colts run defense was this year, they did get a lot better down the stretch.
The Colts come in on a roll, winning their last 4 games of the season to claim a playoff spot. The Jets on the other hand have looked inconsistent and sometimes disastrous in the second half of the season. Indy has all the momentum heading into this game. The only way the Colts blow this game is if Manning starts throwing interceptions at the same rate he did earlier this season.
Cots 24 - Jets 17
Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs deserve some credit for unexpectedly winning the AFC West, but they rode the league's easiest schedule on their way to claiming the division. They played well at home, but are coming off an embarrassing home loss against Oakland to finish the season. Matt Cassel has not looked the same the past few weeks since coming back from appendectomy surgery, with Week 17 easily being his worst game of the year. He had an unexpectedly good season, but he hasn't reached the elite level of QBs. KC needs to feed Jamaal Charles the ball as much as possible. Thomas Jones looked awful down the stretch and seems unlikely to help much, yet they continue to split carries. Charles is their most explosive playmaker, so he gives them their only chance to stay in this game.
Flacco is boarderline as an elite level QB. He needs to be more consistent. He has a winning record in the playoffs for his career, but hasn't looked very good doing it. Sometimes he still seems overwhelmed, but the Chiefs defense, as improved as it was this year, isn't good enough to throw Flacco off his game. Ray Rice should run wild, similar to what he did in last year's playoffs against the Patriots.
For what it's worth, I'll be rooting for the Chiefs because I'd rather the Patriots play them in the next round instead of Baltimore, but I have a feeling I'll be left disappointed.
Ravens 23 - Chiefs 20
Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Green Bay was a popular early season pick to go to the Super Bowl, but they were hit hard with injuries and barely managed to get into the playoffs as a Wild Card. They don't even try to pretend that they have a running game. As good as Aaron Rodgers is, it's tough to move the ball in such a one dimensional offense against good teams. Greg Jennings is likely to burn Asante Samuel when he gambles at least once for a big play, but Samuel is just as likely to pick off a pass when he guesses right.
Michael Vick has been one of the biggest stories of the season. He sat out the final week of the season with a bruised thigh, but should be good enough to go for this game. The Packers have to try to contain Vick as a runner and make him beat them as a passer. They also may need to hold a safety back to play over the top to protect against big plays from DeSean Jackson. It's tough to defend both threats at the same time. They also can't forget about Shady McCoy. The Packers can stop the run, but he's dangerous as a pass catcher out of the back field too.
Green Bay is the more complete team, but the Eagles have the most dangerous weapon on the field with Vick and have home field, giving them a slight edge.
Eagles 31, Packers 28
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