NBA Preview

We are about to kick off the most highly anticipated NBA season in years in the wake of perhaps the biggest free agency summer the league has ever seen.  Several storylines flood headlines to begin the season, including the formation of the new Miami trio, Carmelo trade rumors and the Lakers attempt to become the first team to three-peat since... well, the Lakers.

Here are some of my predictions, as well as some things that I'm looking forward to seeing this season.

• The Lakers will not win their third straight title.  Call me a Laker hater (come on, who outside of LA isn't?), but the reality is that despite how Phil Jackson makes it seem, it's incredibly difficult to win three straight titles.  While this Lakers team is good, they aren't as good as the last Lakers team to do it with Shaq, or Jordan's Bulls.  Kobe is already battling numerous injuries and may be hitting the decline phase of his career.  Or at least we can hope he is.
• The Celtics are my pick to win the title over the Lakers, and that's not a homer pick.  Ok, maybe it is a little bit.  But on paper you have to like this team.  They were 6 minutes away from winning the title last year, and they've done more to improve their roster than LA has.  The key for them, as always, is to stay healthy.  That's a big "if" considering the age of their star players, but if they can pace themselves through the regular season and still get a top 4 seed then they are a dangerous playoff team.  KG's knee kept Boston out of the Finals 2 years ago, so it's time for the rubber match.
• Another factor in Boston's favor: Shaq is hungry.  Kobe's gloating about having more rings than Shaq awakened a sleeping giant.  Last year, Shaq's motto was "Win a Ring for the King."  That failed, but Shaq wasn't nearly as motivated to help LeBron win a ring as he will be to shut Kobe up.
• Watching Rajon Rondo play is one of the things I'm most looking forward to.  He seems to do a couple things every game that make you just say, "Wow!"  He's so much fun to watch.  If he ever learns to shoot free throws with any effectiveness he could become an MVP candidate someday.
• The biggest difference between the East's favorites is that Miami is built for the regular season, but Boston is built for the playoffs. 
• Miami is not ready to win a title yet.  LeBron and D-Wade are arguably two of the top 5 players in the league, while Bosh is probably in the top 20.  But what else do they have?  I like some of the moves they made to fill out their roster (Miller, Haslem, House) given they had very little cap room to maneuver with after signing their big three, but they are dangerously lacking in depth.  Wade and Bosh have never made it through a full season without injuries, so that's bound to happen.  If any of those three goes down for an extended period then this team starts to look a lot more ordinary.  It will also take LeBron and Wade a little time to adjust to playing with each other and create chemistry.  It doesn't help that both missed time this pre-season, so they will enter the season without having much time at all to mesh together.
• Miami's downfall will be their inability to guard big men.  Sure, nobody can guard all the weapons Miami can throw out there at once, but they also have nobody that can stop a dominant big man in the paint and they will get beat on the glass.  This will kill them against teams like Boston, Orlando and the Lakers.  They will likely have to beat at least 2 of those 3 to win a title.
• Cleveland Owner Dan Gilbert will still be wrong about his prediction that the Cavs will win a title before LeBron.
• LeBron's return to Cleveland to face the Cavs (12/2) will be one of the most anticipated games of the year.  Unless you live in Cleveland. 
• Carmelo Anthony will play for the Knicks before the February trade deadline.  How do I know this?  Because Carmelo knows this, and because he's essentially already told the Nuggets that the Knicks are the only team he wants to play for.  He's refusing to sign an extension in Denver and will block any other team that tries to acquire him by letting them know he'll bolt for free agency after the season, so don't bother giving up anything of value.  The Nets were an option, but seem to be backing off the idea of giving up Derrick Favors, while the Bulls signed Noah to an extension, which is a sign they aren't looking to trade him.  Denver knows they will lose Melo for nothing if they hold on to him, and they don't look like contenders with him. 
• A package of Daniello Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Kelenna Azubuike, Eddy Curry's expiring contract, and a future first round pick for Carmelo Anthony and JR Smith would get it done (Denver will insist the Knicks take back at least one of their headcases to make this work, and the Knicks don't have enough players to make the salaries match for Kenyon Martin without gutting their roster).
• The Eastern Conference is extremely top heavy, with potentially 3 of the best 4 teams in the NBA residing in the East.  However, the East will likely also see at least 1 and perhaps 2 playoff teams with records below .500. 
• Meanwhile, the West will have multiple teams above .500 that miss the playoffs. 
• The Timberwolves will be the worst team in the NBA.  I wish they would trade Kevin Love, because he's too talented to waste away on such a poorly run team.  Don't worry, GMs around the league already know they can swindle David Khan into giving him up for a mediocre PG and a former first round bust.  How's Mike Conley and Hasheem Thabeet for Love and Kosta Koufos sound?
• Toronto and Cleveland will be the next worst teams, but that's not their fault.  Their GM's aren't to blame for Bosh and LeBron leaving.
• The only thing Raptors fans have to look forward to this season is booing Bosh and Vince Carter (that will never get old for them) when they come to town.  Hedu Turkoglu won't get a warm reception, but their fans never really cared that much about him to begin with, and they should be content with pawning him off to an unsuspecting Suns team who's owner was foolishly operating without a GM.
• Forget watching the Lakers and Kings play basketball, just put Ron Artest and DeMarcus Cousins in an arena together and see what happens!
• The Clippers actually look good on paper with Blake Griffin and Eric Gordon, but so much hinges on how motivated Baron Davis is to play.  Plus, never count on a team owned by Donald Sterling to succeed.  The Curse continues!
• The league will agree on a new collective bargaining agreement before next summer, preventing a lockout.  Or at least they should if they have any sense.  Basketball has risen back to heights of popularity that the league hasn't seen since Jordan was around (with the Bulls, his days with the Wizards don't count).  Don't mess that up by alienating fans with a lockout season.  Didn't you learn your lesson after the '99 season?

Eastern Conference Playoff Teams

1. Orlando - the Magic and Heat will both dominate in this division, but I think Orlando gets the better of their head to head matchups, giving them the edge.
2. Miami - #2 in the East is the easy part, but what about getting out of the 2nd round of the playoffs?
3. Boston - once again will pace themselves in the 2nd half to ensure they are healthy for the playoffs
4. Chicago - could go higher if Boozer weren't out for the first month of the season
5. Atlanta - giving JJ that huge contract was a huge mistake.  Highest they can go, and it only gets worse
6. New York - assuming they get 'Melo
7. Milwaukee - feared the deer last year, but Bogut's health is a question mark
8. Washington - John Wall will help give them some life and a full season of Gilbert puts them back in the playoffs.... despite less than 40 wins.

Western Conference Playoff Teams

1. Lakers - Best in the West until proven otherwise
2. Oklahoma City - love this collection of young, talented players.  Seems high in a loaded west, but I won't doubt them, especially after watching Durant dominate in the World's this summer.
3. Portland - would be higher if Oden could play a full season... but will he ever?
4. Dallas - Dirk and Kidd have to decline at some point. The younger teams above have higher ceilings
5. Utah - exchanging Boozer for Big Al is a wash, but also lost some key role players
6. San Antonio - can never count them out if they are healthy.  Added depth up front with Splitter
7. Houston - Yao will be limited, but enough to get them back in the playoffs
8. New Orleans - they have to get in, or else CP3 will demand to be traded... again

NBA Finals: Boston over LA
MVP: Kevin Durant
Scoring Title: Kevin Durant
Rookie of the Year: Blake Griffin
Comeback Player of the Year: Gilbert Arenas
Most Improved Player: Russell Westbrook
All-NBA First Team: Chris Paul, Dwayne Wade, Kevin Durant, Dirk Nowitzki, Dwight Howard
All-NBA Second Team: Deron Williams, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Pau Gasol, Amar'e Stoudemire
All-NBA Third Team: Rajon Rondo, Brandon Roy, Carmelo Anthony, Josh Smith, Al Jefferson