Missing Moss?

They say fortune favors the bold.  Well, trading your most explosive playmaker mid-season certainly is bold - but will it pay off?

This is the question that fans all around New England are looking for answers to in the wake of the Patriots shocking announcement that they have traded star WR Randy Moss to the Minnesota Vikings for a 3rd round pick in the 2011 draft. 

The initial reaction from most fans is that this is a significant loss that weakens the offense and could potentially drop the Patriots from being amongst the elite teams in the AFC.  Moss is one of the greatest receivers of all time.  He's a touchdown machine, having set the single season league record with 23 TDs in 2007, and perhaps the most dangerous downfield threat we have ever seen.  A physical freak, Moss' athleticism and speed make him nearly impossible to cover when he's at his best.

The problem being - he is not always at his best.  Moss has a long history of coasting during games and taking plays off when he feels things aren't going his way.  An unhappy Randy is an unproductive Randy.  Make no mistake, Moss was unhappy and he made no attempts to hide that fact.  After an opening day victory over the Bengals in Week 1 Moss ranted about how he feels disrespected about not being offered a contract extension.  While others chose to discuss the game and praise their teammates for their contributions to their victory, Moss chose only to speak about himself.

While some players use their contract year as fuel to motivate them to have a great season, Moss clearly allowed his contract situation to become a distraction.  He complained both openly and privately about the issue and reportedly even asked the Patriots to trade him.  The tension may have hit a breaking point during halftime of the Patriots Week 4 game in Miami, when Moss argued with QB coach Bill O'Brien regarding the offensive gameplan.  Moss, who had only been targeted once in the first half (a pass that he dropped in the endzone) placed the blame on his coach for the team's 7-6 deficit at the half and demanded to be more involved in the second half.  As it turned out, Moss wasn't targeted at all in the second half, yet the team went on to steamroll the Dolphins on their way to a 41-14 victory.  Yet Moss was left unsatisfied because even though they won the game, his contributions did not show up in the box score.  Statistics are what will help Moss cash in another big pay day after this season, so a lack of targets in his direction isn't helping his goal - which isn't to win, but to get paid.

While it won't show up in any box scores, Moss can still impact the game even when he's not catching the ball. Defenses know what he's capable of, which often leads to double or even triple team coverage on him.  With Moss drawing so much of the defense's attention to him it leaves his teammates open to make plays.  Without Moss the Patriots no longer have the kind of playmaker that can stretch the field and draw that kind of extra coverage, which may make it harder for the other receivers to get open. 

With Moss out of the picture the Patriots will be required to change their offensive philosophy, but that may not end up being a bad thing.  They are likely to go back to the approach they used in their Super Bowl years, with Brady spreading the ball around to a variety of different receivers rather than hoping to have one star receiver make a big play.  We saw too many times in the Week 2 loss to the Jets that Brady was trying to force the ball to Moss in a desperate attempt to jumpstart the offense.  The plan didn't work, leading to two interceptions which likely cost them the game. 

The Patriots may not have another receiver as talented as Moss, but they still has plenty of other weapons, including Wes Welker, Brandon Tate, and Julian Edelman as receivers.  They will also rely more on their Tight Ends, particularly the rookies - Hernandez and Gronkowski.  We've seen a lot more two TE sets this year, so we can expect that to continue, with Hernandez proving to be a reliable pass catcher capable of making big plays and Gronkowski becoming a top target in the endzone.  No one player can replace what Moss brought to this offense, but the collective effort of them all can surpass it.  They will need some of these young players to step up, but in a small sample size we've so far seen that they're capable of it.

Another aspect of the trade that has been criticized is that the team was only able to acquire a 3rd round draft pick in exchange for Moss.  This seems like very low compensation for a player of Moss' caliber, unless you look at it in perspective.  In the offseason, Miami traded two 2nd round picks to acquire Brandon Marshall, who is another elite WR comparable to Moss.  Obviously this is a much greater haul than what the Patriots received, but we also could not have expected to get back nearly that much.  For one thing, Miami made the deal in the offseason, not 4 weeks into the regular season.  Immediately upon agreeing to the deal, Miami was able to re-sign Marshall to a long extension that will keep him around for several more years.  The Vikings have yet to reach such an extension with Moss, and it's possible they aren't looking to.  If Moss is just a one year rental for them then it's understandable why he wasn't worth more than that.  The 3rd round pick is comparable compensation to what the Vikings, and other teams, had been offering for San Diego Chargers receiver Vincent Jackson, another elite WR that is on the trading block due to a contract hold out.

Moss was becoming a malcontent that coach Bill Belichick was concerned would be a distraction for the team.  In the past the Patriots locker room had been filled with veterans like Teddy Bruschi and Rodney Harrison that were able to keep Moss in line, but most of those players are gone now.  There are a lot of impressionable young players there now and Belichick couldn't risk letting them be influenced by Moss' antics or let him poison the team's chemistry.  Rumor has it that if they weren't able to find a trade partner that they were considering cutting Moss and losing him for nothing.  Suddenly a third round pick doesn't seem so bad.  Whoever we draft in the 3rd round isn't likely to have the impact that Moss has had on this team, but that wasn't the intention of this trade.  It's addition by subtraction.  They hope to improve the team overall by removing a potential distraction.

This trade draws several comparisons to Manny Ramirez's ugly exit from Boston when the Red Sox were forced to trade him 2 years ago.  You'll remember that Ramirez became a malcontent and forced his way out of town by not playing hard, causing problems in the clubhouse and fighting with teammamtes and coaches.  Sound familiar?

Moss was unhappy about his uncertain future and he let his emotions impact his play on the field.  While he may still be amongst the best receivers in the game today, the fact is that he's 33 years old and starting to decline physically.  As he gets older, he won't be able to get by on his speed and athleticism anymore.  It's not hard to see why the team was hesitant to lock him up to an expensive long term extension, particularly with the uncertain labor agreement on the horizon.  Moss had already made it clear that he didn't expect to return to New England after this season, so rather than lose him for nothing after the season the team decided to cash in their chips and get something of value back before it's too late. 

The trade weakens them for this season from a talent standpoint, but the positive impact on team chemistry should help to balance that out.  The draft pick also helps strengthen the team in the long term, as the Patriots now have 2 draft picks in each of the first 4 rounds of next year's draft - their own picks, plus one from Oakland (1st), Carolina (2nd), Minnesota (3rd) and Denver (4th).  The Oakland pick is likely to be a high draft pick, possibly top 5, while the Carolina pick should be high in the 2nd round, making it nearly as valuable as a first rounder.  The extra mid-round picks can add some much needed depth to the team, or be used as trade chips to move up in the draft to get a more likely impact player or to trade for a more proven veteran.

There is no doubt that Randy Moss will be missed in New England.  He was as exciting a player to watch as this team has ever seen and the loss of his production will leave a big hole in this offense that needs to be filled by younger, unproven players.  However, this was a move that had to be done.  Moss forced Belichick's hand with his outbursts and moody behavior.  That attitude doesn't fit in with the team first philosophy that their coach preaches.  It's not the "Patriot Way."  In the end, Belichick refused to give in to the "Randy Way" and made the most of a bad situation.  In the long run, the team will be better for it.