Tuesday, October 26, 2010

NFL Week 7 Review

The NFL cracked down hard this week on helmet to helmet hits in the wake of last week's controversy over the number of head injuries sustained due to illegal hits.  Fines were given and a rule change was implemented to strictly enforce these penalties.  Time will tell how much good this will do, but based on the results from this week it seems they are off to a good start.  The players seem to have gotten the message, as this week there has yet to a penalty or fine for such a hit.  Will it last?

Detroit, Indianapolis, New York Jets, and Houston were on a Bye this week.  Let's hope they were paying attention so we can keep up this new trend of not hitting people in the head.

With the Colts on a Bye week it means we got to go a whole week without having to look at Payton Manning... except during commercial breaks.

Here are some things I noticed in this week's games.
  • Roddy White continues his fantastic season.  He's the biggest reason why Matt Ryan is starting to look suspiciously like an elite QB.
  • Carson Palmer had a big stats day, with the TOchocinco due getting plenty of catches each, but don't be fooled.  They played from behind pretty much all day, plus the Falcons D was without Dunta Robinson after last week's head collision.  After looking lifeless in the first half, the Bengals dominated the 3rd quarter, until Atlanta finally put them away with two 4th quarter TDs.
  • Holy turnovers!  Chicago and Washington both struggled to hang on to the ball, with Jay Cutler throwing 4 picks (all to DeAngelo Hall - one of which was returned for a TD).  Rough day when someone on the opposing team's defense has nearly as many catches as your own top receiver on the day.  He also lost a fumble for good measure, as did Matt Forte.
  • McNabb had a pretty ugly day himself, but wasn't quite able to turn it over as many times as Cutler, so the Redskins had to settle for a win on the scoreboard.
  • Kenny Britt was the star for the Titans in their win over Philly.  After being benched for most of the first half due to some off-field issues (he was in a bar fight Friday night), Britt arrived in a big way - 225 yards and 3 TDs. 
  • The game was closely contested for most of the way, until the 4th quarter where the Titans scored 27 uncontested points, ending the game after an interception that was returned for a TD by Cortland Finnegan.  So the game was a bit closer than the 37-19 score appears.
  • Another sub par game for CJ2k.  Only 66 yards and averaging less than 3 yards per carry. Somewhat surprised that the Titans elected to kick a FG with 22 seconds remaining and leading by 8 points already.  I know its common sense from a football perspective to ensure that you remain up by two scores, but Chris Johnson needs more yards!  Come on coach, give him the ball!
  • Andy Reid is secretly thankful that Kevin Kolb struggled at the end of the game in this loss.  It'll make it easier for him to put Vick back in as the starter for their next game.
  • Another big day for Dwayne Bowe.  See what happens when you don't drop the ball?  Matt Cassell will never be an elite QB, but if he keeps up a good rapport with a receiver like Bowe then he may be able to be just good enough to keep pulling off wins.
  • Jacksonville is a bad team.  David Garrard is a bad QB.  So when Garrard is out injured and the team has to play with a backup QB?  Yup, you guessed it, they are even worse.  They never really had a chance in this one, although it took KC longer than it should have to finally put them away.
  • A controversial call helped the Steelers to another victory over Miami.  Big Ben fumbled at the goal line on his attempt to dive into the endzone.  It was originally called a TD, but reply overturned the call, saying the ball came loose before it crossed the goal line.  However, the referee stated that there was inconclusive evidence as to who recovered the fumble.  While from watching the replay it seemed inconceivable that anyone other than a Dolphins player could have recovered it, the fact remains that the ball could not actually be seen under the pile of players, which meant the ref was not allowed to reward Miami with the football.  The Steelers got the ball back for a 4th down play at the 1 yard line, allowing them to kick the winning FG.  Tough break.
  • Super Bowl hangover?  The Saints need to blame it on something after they've now lost to Arizona and Cleveland, both of whom started rookie QBs.  Brees has not looked like himself and the offense is struggling because of it.  He threw 4 picks in this one.  Hopefully getting Reggie Bush back will spark the offense and return things to normal.  He could be back next week.
  • Scoring two defensive TDs is a great way to take some of the pressure off a rookie QB.
  • Two of the early season surprise teams, the Bucs and Rams, went head to head in what ended up being a closely contested game.  Josh Freeman showed great poise leading the team on their final drive, scoring the winning TD with 10 seconds remaining.
  • While neither QB lit up the box score, both of these young QBs played fairly well.  Their running games did most of the work moving the ball, but each of them was able to make a few plays while limiting mistakes.  Pretty much all you can ask for from a young QB on a rebuilding team.  Part of why both of these teams are better than expected after miserable season's last year.  Each team already has more wins than they did all of last season.
  • How does Mike Singletary still have a job?  A slow start could be brushed off given how poor the NFC West is, but at 1-6 they might as well give up at this point.  Alex Smith is clearly not the answer, but now he's hurt anyway, so they had to turn if over to David Carr.  To the surprise of no one, he still knows how to get sacked and throw interceptions.
  • The Panthers got their first win of the season at their expense.  They are another team that nobody expected to be this bad, but at least nobody was picking them to win their division.  What has been more disappointing then their record has been the struggles of their once feared rushing duo of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.  Some games they are behind so much they need to abandon the run, but in this game they both got plenty of chances (19 carries for Williams, 14 for Stewart) and neither did much with it.  They each barely cracked the 2 yard per carry average.  Not much going well for this team, but they can at least finally enjoy a victory.
  • The Bills are the only winless team in the NFL. You have to wonder when (or if?) that will change.  They had a chance against Baltimore, but Ray Lewis saved the day by forcing a fumble in overtime to set up the Ravens for a win.  Fumbling the ball in OT is bad enough, but the unnecessary roughness penalty that put the Ravens in FG range to start their game ending drive was, well... unnecessary.
  • Who knew the Bills offense could be so explosive?  374 yards and 4 TDs from Ryan Fitzpatrick?  Really??  Baltimore clearly has some issues in their secondary, even with Ed Reed finally back on the field.  Their offense is good, but not good enough to make them an elite team if they keep giving up points like this.
  • Really thought Ray Rice would do more damage against a terrible Buffalo defense, but he was relatively kept in check.  Willis McGahee did more on a per carry basis (Rice 4.5, McGahee 5.8).  Not a poor performance by Rice, but the presence of McGahee will limit him.
  • Has the Seahawks defense improved that dramatically, or have they just been matched up against teams that happen to play sloppy against them?  5 turnovers in this game, including 4 fumbles.  Given the -4 turnover differential, it's not hard to predict who won this one. 
  • It's bad enough that Arizona can't decide on a top RB (Hightower starts, but Wells gets the majority of the carries), but they keep switching their QB as well.  That can't be good for anyone's confidence, especially their fans.  Derek Anderson and Max Hall both got a chance in this one but they both failed to impress.  Is Dancing With the Stars over yet so they can get Kurt Warner back?
  • Mike Williams looks like Matt Hasselbeck's new favorite target since Branch was traded away.  ESPN had a great story on Williams, whos' career looked like it was over after he bombed as a high draft pick with Detroit.  The former USC star became overweight and unmotivated, eventually finding himself out of the league. Now he's back and put together his second quality game in a row.
  • If you blinked at the start of this game then you missed any part of it that may have been competitive.  Oakland ended up being ahead 21-0 only 6 minutes into the game.  Darren McFadden ran all over the place for 196 total yards and 4 TDS (3 rushing, 1 receiving).  Not bad for a guy that declared himself only 70% certain to play before the game.
  • Michael Bush had 15 carries, compared to 16 for Run DMC, but it's clear that he's the backup.  Most of Bush's carries came after McFadden needed a breather after a big run (like the 57 yard run he had).  Now that he's healthy, McFadden is the guy.  Oakland didn't have a RB come close to 1,000 yards last season, but McFadden already has 557 despite only playing in 5 games.
  • Another relatively low yardage game for Kyle Orton, but he remains in 2nd in the league in that category, thanks in part to Payton Manning being off this week.
  • Knowshon Moreno showed signs of life in this game by catching 2 TD passes, but he was only mediocre on the ground against a bad rush defense.
  • The Patriots have to feel fortunate to come away with a win in San Diego considering how poorly the offense played.  The Chargers practically tried to give them the game by turning the ball over 5 times in the first half, yet they only managed to convert that into 13 first half points.  They could have easily put the game away early, but they struggled to move the ball for most of the game.  If it weren't for the great field position given to them by the turnovers then they may not have scored at all in the first half.
  • The Chargers made the Pats sweat it out in the end by scoring two 4th Quarter TDs, the second of which came after an on-side kick that was perfectly placed at just about exactly the minimum 10 yard mark.
  • Bellichick made another controversial 4th down call, going for it on 4th and 1 around mid-field.  A successful conversion could have possibly allowed them to run out the clock.  Instead, the Law Firm was stuffed for a loss, which allowed the Chargers to get the ball in great field position to set up a potential game tying FG.  Luckily, an untimely false start penalty on San Diego pushed the FG attempt back to 50 yards.  The kick still had the distance, but hooked just enough to end up hitting the post.  If the kick had been made from the original 45 yard spot it likely would have gone through.  I almost had a heart attack watching this ending.
  • Not to knock Kris Brown for his efforts, but you have to think a healthy Nate Keading makes that kick.  I mean, he only misses clutch kicks like that in the playoffs, right?
  • Brett Favre returned to Green Bay for only the second time as an opposing player, but this time it didn't go quite as well as before.  Coach Brad Childress was critical of Favre after the game, not so subtly hinting that Favre's interception that was returned for a TD cost them the game.
    • "You can't throw it to them, you've got to play within the confines of our system," Vikings coach Brad Childress said of Favre. "Sometimes it's OK to punt the football. You can't give seven points going the other way, not in a game like this."
    • So the key to the game is to throw the ball to your own teammates so they can score, not the other way around?  Genius!  Thanks coach!
  • It amuses me that Childress has the nerve to be critical of anyone.  Things look to be headed for a messy divorce with the Vikings and Favre, and once he's gone Childress may soon follow him out the door.
  • Adrian Peterson was unstoppable. He's one of the only reasons the Vikings had a chance in this game.  172 total yards, with one of his receptions for 26 yards helping to keep the Vikings chances alive.  The play came on a 2nd and 16, following a Favre sack, when things weren't looking good.
  • The end of the game was a whirlwind of emotions.  Favre gleefully bounced up and down on one leg as he hobbled over to his teammates to celebrate what he thought was a game winning TD in the final minute of the game.  After a booth review it was determined that Percy Harvin did not come down in bounds, so the TD was overturned.  Favre had a couple other desperation shots at the endzone, but failed to connect with Randy Moss on both attempts.
  • Aaron Rodgers stat line in the box score looked ok, but watching him in the game he didn't look very good. He missed badly on several passes.  They managed to barely squeak out a victory, mainly because the Vikings are so dysfunctional right now. 
  • Favre is either hurting (ankle, elbow or whatever else he wants to complain about next) or distracted by the off field allegations against him.  Either way, I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't finish the season.
  • Fans in Green Bay should have taken out their cell phones and pretended to snap pictures of Favre during the game to taunt him.  Too bad the Bengals don't play the Vikings.  OchoCinco would do it for his TD celebration, fines be damned!
  • I entered Monday night's game in need of 20 points from Tony Romo to win one of my fantasy football matchups this week.  Certainly not a lock, but reasonable.  So of course he gets injured in the first half (broken clavicle) so I didn't even come close.  I still had some hope when TV cameras showed Romo trying to get back into the game only 1 series after the injury, but coaches wisely held him back for further testing.  By halftime it was revealed he wasn't coming back.  Romo could be out 6-8 weeks.  Possibly even for the season. 
  • In case the 1-5 record wasn't telling enough, with Romo out we can now officially end any talk about Dallas playing in front of their home crowd in the Super Bowl.  Jerry Jones just shed a tear.
  • No, Jon Kitna will not turn this team around.  His final stat line looked ok given that he only played a little less than 3 quarters of the game, but most of the damage came at the end of the 4th quarter when Dallas was forced to keep throwing in a desperate attempt to catch up. 
    • Kitna came in to replace Romo with about 12 minutes remaining in the 2nd quarter.  Romo had already gotten them to the NY 29 yard line, so it didn't take much from Kitna to get them a FG on that drive.  Dallas didn't score on offense until there was about 3 minutes left in the game.
  • Dez Bryant had a big game, helping Dallas make the final score look a lot more respectable than they actually looked in the game.  His 93 yard punt return in the 2nd quarter was impressive, but he also caught 2 TDs in the final minutes of the game to give Dallas a chance.  Not a good chance, given that the 2nd one came with 40 seconds left, but it put them within 1 score and gave them a chance at a miracle finish.  Which of course didn't happen, because that goes against everything that has happened to Dallas this season.
  • Miles Austin was a major disappointment.  Not only did he seem to disappear after Romo left, but he dropped two big catches, one of which would have been a TD.  An elite WR like him has to make those catches.  Hell, any WR in the NFL (or your buddy's flag football league) has to make those catches.
  • The game actually started out going very well for the Cowboys, with 2 early Interceptions by Eli Manning gifting Dallas 10 points in under 6 minutes.  Then the Giants took control and never let up.
  • Speaking of Eli, after a shaky start he was pretty impressive with 4 TDs in the game.  Two of them went to Hakeem Nicks, who looks close to impossible to cover 1 on 1 in the endzone.  Steve Smith and Mario Manningham each caught a TD as well.  The Giants receivers have become a formidable trio, perhaps giving Eli the deepest collection of weapons he's ever had, which explains the career year he's having statistically.
  • We still aren't quite at the halfway point, and keep in mind that Payton was on a Bye this week and Eli's isn't until next week... but has Eli ever been this close statistically to Payton this late in the season?  He's only about 150 passing yards behind him and actually leads by 1 in TDs after last night.  The biggest difference is the Interceptions (Eli - 11, Payton - 2).  If Payton has a big week next week while Eli's team is off then maybe it won't look so close, but when you factor in all the injuries the Colts have at receiver (plus Dallas Clark is out for the season) it's not unreasonable to think that Eli could finish with better stats than his older brother. 
  • So far no team is running away with their Division.  In fact, every Division in the league has at least 3 teams that could potentially make the playoffs.
  • The NFL wants parity and it's getting it this year.  Unfortunately you can't help but notice that a lot of that has to do with injuries as opposed to an even distribution of talent.

Thursday, October 21, 2010

NBA Preview

We are about to kick off the most highly anticipated NBA season in years in the wake of perhaps the biggest free agency summer the league has ever seen.  Several storylines flood headlines to begin the season, including the formation of the new Miami trio, Carmelo trade rumors and the Lakers attempt to become the first team to three-peat since... well, the Lakers.

Here are some of my predictions, as well as some things that I'm looking forward to seeing this season.
  • The Lakers will not win their third straight title.  Call me a Laker hater (come on, who outside of LA isn't?), but the reality is that despite how Phil Jackson makes it seem, it's incredibly difficult to win three straight titles.  While this Lakers team is good, they aren't as good as the last Lakers team to do it with Shaq, or Jordan's Bulls.  Kobe is already battling numerous injuries and may be hitting the decline phase of his career.  Or at least we can hope he is.
  • The Celtics are my pick to win the title over the Lakers, and that's not a homer pick.  Ok, maybe it is a little bit.  But on paper you have to like this team.  They were 6 minutes away from winning the title last year, and they've done more to improve their roster than LA has.  The key for them, as always, is to stay healthy.  That's a big "if" considering the age of their star players, but if they can pace themselves through the regular season and still get a top 4 seed then they are a dangerous playoff team.  KG's knee kept Boston out of the Finals 2 years ago, so it's time for the rubber match.
  • Another factor in Boston's favor: Shaq is hungry.  Kobe's gloating about having more rings than Shaq awakened a sleeping giant.  Last year, Shaq's motto was "Win a Ring for the King."  That failed, but Shaq wasn't nearly as motivated to help LeBron win a ring as he will be to shut Kobe up.
  • Watching Rajon Rondo play is one of the things I'm most looking forward to.  He seems to do a couple things every game that make you just say, "Wow!"  He's so much fun to watch.  If he ever learns to shoot free throws with any effectiveness he could become an MVP candidate someday.
  • The biggest difference between the East's favorites is that Miami is built for the regular season, but Boston is built for the playoffs. 
  • Miami is not ready to win a title yet.  LeBron and D-Wade are arguably two of the top 5 players in the league, while Bosh is probably in the top 20.  But what else do they have?  I like some of the moves they made to fill out their roster (Miller, Haslem, House) given they had very little cap room to maneuver with after signing their big three, but they are dangerously lacking in depth.  Wade and Bosh have never made it through a full season without injuries, so that's bound to happen.  If any of those three goes down for an extended period then this team starts to look a lot more ordinary.  It will also take LeBron and Wade a little time to adjust to playing with each other and create chemistry.  It doesn't help that both missed time this pre-season, so they will enter the season without having much time at all to mesh together.
  • Miami's downfall will be their inability to guard big men.  Sure, nobody can guard all the weapons Miami can throw out there at once, but they also have nobody that can stop a dominant big man in the paint and they will get beat on the glass.  This will kill them against teams like Boston, Orlando and the Lakers.  They will likely have to beat at least 2 of those 3 to win a title.
  • Cleveland Owner Dan Gilbert will still be wrong about his prediction that the Cavs will win a title before LeBron.
  • LeBron's return to Cleveland to face the Cavs (12/2) will be one of the most anticipated games of the year.  Unless you live in Cleveland. 
  • Carmelo Anthony will play for the Knicks before the February trade deadline.  How do I know this?  Because Carmelo knows this, and because he's essentially already told the Nuggets that the Knicks are the only team he wants to play for.  He's refusing to sign an extension in Denver and will block any other team that tries to acquire him by letting them know he'll bolt for free agency after the season, so don't bother giving up anything of value.  The Nets were an option, but seem to be backing off the idea of giving up Derrick Favors, while the Bulls signed Noah to an extension, which is a sign they aren't looking to trade him.  Denver knows they will lose Melo for nothing if they hold on to him, and they don't look like contenders with him. 
    • A package of Daniello Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Kelenna Azubuike, Eddy Curry's expiring contract, and a future first round pick for Carmelo Anthony and JR Smith would get it done (Denver will insist the Knicks take back at least one of their headcases to make this work, and the Knicks don't have enough players to make the salaries match for Kenyon Martin without gutting their roster).
  • The Eastern Conference is extremely top heavy, with potentially 3 of the best 4 teams in the NBA residing in the East.  However, the East will likely also see at least 1 and perhaps 2 playoff teams with records below .500. 
  • Meanwhile, the West will have multiple teams above .500 that miss the playoffs. 
  • The Timberwolves will be the worst team in the NBA.  I wish they would trade Kevin Love, because he's too talented to waste away on such a poorly run team.  Don't worry, GMs around the league already know they can swindle David Khan into giving him up for a mediocre PG and a former first round bust.  How's Mike Conley and Hasheem Thabeet for Love and Kosta Koufos sound?
  • Toronto and Cleveland will be the next worst teams, but that's not their fault.  Their GM's aren't to blame for Bosh and LeBron leaving.
  • The only thing Raptors fans have to look forward to this season is booing Bosh and Vince Carter (that will never get old for them) when they come to town.  Hedu Turkoglu won't get a warm reception, but their fans never really cared that much about him to begin with, and they should be content with pawning him off to an unsuspecting Suns team who's owner was foolishly operating without a GM.
  • Forget watching the Lakers and Kings play basketball, just put Ron Artest and DeMarcus Cousins in an arena together and see what happens!
  • The Clippers actually look good on paper with Blake Griffin and Eric Gordon, but so much hinges on how motivated Baron Davis is to play.  Plus, never count on a team owned by Donald Sterling to succeed.  The Curse continues!
  • The league will agree on a new collective bargaining agreement before next summer, preventing a lockout.  Or at least they should if they have any sense.  Basketball has risen back to heights of popularity that the league hasn't seen since Jordan was around (with the Bulls, his days with the Wizards don't count).  Don't mess that up by alienating fans with a lockout season.  Didn't you learn your lesson after the '99 season?
Eastern Conference Playoff Teams
  1. Orlando - the Magic and Heat will both dominate in this division, but I think Orlando gets the better of their head to head matchups, giving them the edge.
  2. Miami - #2 in the East is the easy part, but what about getting out of the 2nd round of the playoffs?
  3. Boston - once again will pace themselves in the 2nd half to ensure they are healthy for the playoffs
  4. Chicago - could go higher if Boozer weren't out for the first month of the season
  5. Atlanta - giving JJ that huge contract was a huge mistake.  Highest they can go, and it only gets worse
  6. New York - assuming they get 'Melo
  7. Milwaukee - feared the deer last year, but Bogut's health is a question mark
  8. Washington - John Wall will help give them some life and a full season of Gilbert puts them back in the playoffs.... despite less than 40 wins.
Western Conference Playoff Teams
  1. Lakers - Best in the West until proven otherwise
  2. Oklahoma City - love this collection of young, talented players.  Seems high in a loaded west, but I won't doubt them, especially after watching Durant dominate in the World's this summer.
  3. Portland - would be higher if Oden could play a full season... but will he ever?
  4. Dallas - Dirk and Kidd have to decline at some point. The younger teams above have higher ceilings
  5. Utah - exchanging Boozer for Big Al is a wash, but also lost some key role players
  6. San Antonio - can never count them out if they are healthy.  Added depth up front with Splitter
  7. Houston - Yao will be limited, but enough to get them back in the playoffs
  8. New Orleans - they have to get in, or else CP3 will demand to be traded... again
NBA Finals: Boston over LA
MVP: Kevin Durant
Scoring Title: Kevin Durant
Rookie of the Year: Blake Griffin
Comeback Player of the Year: Gilbert Arenas
Most Improved Player: Russell Westbrook
All-NBA First Team: Chris Paul, Dwayne Wade, Kevin Durant, Dirk Nowitzki, Dwight Howard
All-NBA Second Team: Deron Williams, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Pau Gasol, Amar'e Stoudemire
All-NBA Third Team: Rajon Rondo, Brandon Roy, Carmelo Anthony, Josh Smith, Al Jefferson

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Week 6 Review

Week 6 had plenty of close games, including two OT thrillers and some big upsets to continue the early season trend of parody in the NFL. Unfortunately a lot of the excitement from this week is being overshadowed by the controversy over helmet to helmet hits, which are becoming a huge problem in football.

Let's start out by saying that the NFL needs to do the right thing to protect it's players by taking a stand against hard hits to the head.  Perhaps more than any time in the past, we are now hearing more about the seriousness of a concussion.  This week alone we saw several examples of injuries that could easily have been prevented by clearer rules regarding hits to the head that are strictly enforced. 

Concussions are dangerous injuries that are often not taken seriously enough.  Awareness of the long term brain damage that multiple concussions can lead to would be a big step toward preventing these types of injuries from spiralling out of control, but it has to be a team effort.  The NFL and their refs need to start cracking down on illegal hits to the head.  Enforcement of these rules, along with stricter penalties, will ensure more players will follow the rules.  Coaches need to instruct players on the proper way to make a tackle and not tolerate penalties due to poor fundamentals.  They also need to have a better understanding of the symptoms of concussions and realize that players need to be taken out of the game, and in most cases will need to miss additional games, depending on the severity of the concussion.  Finally, the media needs to be accountable as well.  Hard hits get glorified as highlights while old school commentators make jokes about a guy "getting his bell rung."  It's impossible to set the example that this type of play needs to be eliminated from the game when players are getting praised for it.  It sets a bad example for young players, particularly to college and high school players who will want to emulate their favorite players by doing the same thing. 

Football is a violent sport by nature.  Hard hits and injuries are unavoidable, but they can take steps to protect players, especially when it comes to life threatening brain trauma.  It could lead to extending the careers of some players as well as keeping those players on the field more, improving the product as a whole.

With that said, here are some other things that happened in Week 6.
  • Some weeks the Bears look like they could become the best team in a division full of underachievers, and then some weeks they lose at home to a Seattle team that is typically awful on the road.
  • Last season Jay Cutler tried to shoot for the league record in throwing Interceptions.  This year it seems he's turned his focus on the record for getting sacked the most.  Sacked 6 times against a Seattle D that isn't known for having a dominant pass rush.  Is it Cutler's fault, the offensive line's, or the system's?  Probably all of the above.
  • Marshawn Lynch was a good pickup for the Seahawks, but they can't forget to keep Justin Forsett involved.  Maybe he can't hold up as a featured back all season, but he's more explosive than Lynch.  He produced a lot more than Lynch with nearly half the amount of touches.
  • Miami won one of the OT thrillers this week, but it should be pointed out that they shouldn't have allowed it to go to overtime to begin with.  They let Aaron Rodgers walk in untouched for a TD late in the 4th quarter to tie the game.  The Packers spread out wide, leaving a gaping hole in the middle that was left undefended.  They redeemed themselves in the end, but that win was harder than it should have been.
  • Greg Jennings, where have you been?  On the bench in my fantasy league this week, so it figures that this is the week he finally goes off, thanks in part to an 86 yard TD reception.
  • The Chargers are still the #1 ranked offense and defense in the league, yet after a shocking loss to the better-than-we-expected Rams, they drop to 2-4 on the season.  They also lost Antoinio Gates to an injury, so things are looking pretty bad in San Diego.  I'm feeling better about the Patriots visit there next weekend.
  • Welcome back Deion Branch!  He was Brady's go to guy in the 4th quarter and OT, in part because Aaron Hernandez kept dropping passes.
  • That Justin Bieber kid needs to shut his mouth about Tom Brady's hair.  When you win 3 Super Bowls and marry a super model you earn the right to have whatever hair style you want.  What has Bieber done that is relevant to anyone outside of 14 year old girls?
    • "Sacked like a sacker. Call Mr. Brady. Tell him to leave his hair to that guy who sings 'Baby' ".  Sacked like a sacker?  What does that even mean?  This kid got famous, how?
  • Baltimore killed their chances by committing a dumb personal foul to back them up to a nearly impossible 3rd and 19 at their own 10 yard line.  Predictably they were forced to punt after the next play, giving the Pats great field position to allow them to march down the field for the game winning field goal. 
  • The Lions continue to lose games despite remaining competitive just about every week.  They were within 4 points until a Brandon Jacobs TD run clinched the win for the Giants with just over 3 minutes to go.
  • Early season breakout star Hakeem Nicks layed an egg in this game.  Despite being targeted 7 times he managed only 3 catches for a measly 8 yards.
  • The lack of a passing attack didn't matter since Ahmad Bradshaw was able to run all over the Lions for 133 yards on only 19 carries - an outstanding 7 yards per carry!
  • Just when it looks like the Falcons are in position to win the NFC South, they get blown out in Philly.  This one was never really that close, after the Eagles got out to a 21-0 lead in the first half.  Matt Ryan was able to connect with a couple of TD passes to Tony Gonzalez to show some signs off life for the team, but it wasn't close to enough.
  • DeSean Jackson was off to a monster start early in the game before being knocked out (literally) with a severe concussion.  Dunta Robinson clearly led with his helmet, but the real culprit was Kevin Kolb, who's throw left Jackson vulnerable to the hit.  It's doubtful he plays next week, with their Bye week looming in Week 8.  It's possible he's out much longer than that, which would be a big blow to this offense.
  • Kevin Kolb finally showed that he's able to connect on big plays to his dynamic receivers.  The Eagles aren't in a rush to get Vick back thanks to Kolbs strong play the past couple weeks, so they can wait until after their Bye week to make a tough decision.
  • Roethlisberger was a bit rusty in his debut, but luckily the Browns are terrible, so he ended up having a good game anyways, leading his team to a decisive win.
  • Watch out NFC South - the Saints are starting to find their groove on offense.  Two of Drew Brees' TD passes were for over 40 yards each.  When they are playing well they are the best team in the league at making big plays in the passing game.
  • Apparently nobody in Houston watched the Patriots in their Super Bowl years.  They didn't realize that Mike Vrabel needs to be covered when he checks in as an eligible receiver at the goal line.
  • Dwayne Bowe had 6 catches, including 2 for TDs.  Is this the first time he's had more catches than drops in a game this year?
  • The Texans had an impressive comeback victory by scoring 21 points in the 4th quarter.  How do you let Andre Johnson get the ball in the endzone at the end of the game?  Triple, even quadruple cover him if you have to!
  • The Broncos have to feel like they let this game slip away, as the Jets played awful for most of the game.  They kept killing themselves with penalties.  I actually listed to this game on the radio on my way home from New York on Sunday afternoon, and according to the radio announcers the refs made some of the most heinous calls in NFL history against the Jets.  I'm going to go out on a limb and say they exaggerated just a bit.  Maybe at least a few of them may actually have been penalties.  That's still no excuse for how poorly the Jets played, particularly in the 1st half.  Denver wasn't able to put them away and ended up not only squandering the lead late in the game, but fumbling away their attempt at a comeback.
  • You have to love being a Kicker playing in Denver.  3 FGs kicked in this game: 59, 56 and 48 yards.
  • The 49ers actually won a game!  Their comeback trail to the division title starts here!
  • This game serves as a reminder as to why Jason Campbell lost his job in the first place: 8/21 passing, 83 yards, 2 Interceptions, QB rating of 10.7.  Gross!  In Washington they blamed his struggles on the fact that they had so many coaching changes that the constantly changing offensive philosophy was stunting his growth as a player.  Did anyone really think Oakland would provide a more stable environment for him to thrive in??  They would have already had 2 coaching changes this season if Al Davis was still alive (wait.... he is alive?  Are you sure?).
  • It was suggested by members of the media that the Raiders should consider trading star CB Nnamdi Asomugha before today's trading deadline.  He's the only player on the roster with enough value to bring back some valuable assets in the form of draft picks, and this team clearly isn't going to contend anytime before they lose him to free agency in a couple years anyway.  But can you imagine how bad this team would be without him?
    • Note A: I hope this happens, because making Oakland worse can only improve the chances of New England getting a higher draft pick from them.
    • Note B: Would the Pats consider giving Oakland their 1st round draft pick back in exchange for Asomugha?  Unlikely given his outrageous salary, but it's worth pondering given that one of the Pats biggest weaknesses is in it's young secondary.  They don't have a shut down guy that they need to contend for a Super Bowl.
  • Once again, the Cowboys win the battle in the box scores, but lose the game.  If you were told before the game that they would have held Favre to barely over 100 yards passing, Peterson to under 75 yards rushing and Moss to only 55 yards receiving, there's no way you'd believe Dallas lost that game.  But they did.
  • Tony Romo keeps putting up big numbers, but is also throwing Interceptions at a Cutler-esque rate, which is costing them games.  Is it too early to say that Dallas is out of playoff contention?  At 1-4 they are starting to look pretty desperate.
  • The Colts managed to hold off the Redskins despite losing the turnover battle.  You rarely see Payton Manning lose the ball on a strip sack, but it was a nice defensive play in a game where the defense rarely got to Manning.  The fumble on Addai can't really be blamed on him, since he was hit hard in the head on the play and left the game.
  • Washington thought the secret to a good running game at the start of the year was to get a time machine to go back to 2006 to get Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson and Willie Parker.  Now those guys are gone, so they thought the fix was to try an unknown commodity like Ryan Torain.  Turns out, the best fix was to get to play the Colts undersized run defense.
  • How does a team like Jacksonville get to be featured on Monday Night Football?  I guess the NFL figures that since they blackout games in their own market, this was the only way anyone would see them play all season.
  • The Jaguars did everything they could to lose this game.  Can't blame their fans to booing the play calling when they call 6 straight running plays when they are down 20 points with only about 6 minutes left in the game.  The way they milked the clock on that 8+ minute drive you'd think they had a big lead themselves.  Seeing Trent Edwards throw an interception in the endzone to end the drive does help justify that gameplan, but even if they had scored on the drive, they took up way too much time doing it.  There was no chance they'd have enough time to score two more times after that.  The lack of urgency made it seem like they were just trying to wind things down to end the game so that they wouldn't lose by as much as they would if they handed the Titans the ball back with more time.
  • The Titans decided to keep scoring anyway though, by letting Chris Johnson run it on 4th and 5.  Why would you run the ball on 4th and 5 when you already have the lead?  When you have CJ2k on your team, and he wants to eclipse the 100 yard mark.  His 35 yard TD run put him over that mark.  He now has 596 yards through 6 games, putting him on pace for 1589 for the season.  He needs to step it up!  Why didn't the Titans try an on-side kick to try to get the ball back and give him a few more carries?!
  • Vince Young and David Garrard both left with injuries, making this game even less exciting to watch.  Kerry Collins actually did well enough in relief that the Titans shouldn't be too worried if VY misses more time.  Trent Edwards is just as awful as Garrard, so Jacksonville should hardly notice the difference.
  • Buffalo, Cinncinati, Arizona and Carolina were on Byes this week.  If those 4 teams contracted over the weekend and were never seen again, would anyone notice?
  • I wonder if TO and OchoCinco spent their Bye week trying to convince Carson Palmer to appear on their reality TV show.  It likely would be in an attempt to distract him in order to keep him off the football field.
  • Thanks to the 49ers finally winning a game, there is yet to be an 0-6 team in the league this year.  So Buffalo and Carolina were unable to watch anyone sink lower than they are.
  • The Jets are the only team in the NFL with 5 wins.  However, Pittsburgh and New England match them with only 1 loss.  They only remain behind NY because they already had their Bye weeks.
  • It's still early, but you can make a case that every team aside from Buffalo, Carolina and probably Detroit are still alive in the playoff chase.  Dallas, SF, and San Diego look like longshots, but they are all too talented to not improve enough to get back into the race.

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Week 5 Review

In Week 5 there was plenty of drama, headlines and shake ups around the league - and that's before any of the games started! 

New England, Miami, Pittsburgh and Seattle were on Byes this week.
  • If Randy Moss is only worth a 3rd round pick then how is Deion Branch worth a 4th round pick?  Seems like a sense of urgency to swap Moss with a less volatile WR led to the Patriots getting less than fair value on both ends.  However, as the Patriots offense is transitioning back to one that spreads the ball around to a wider variety of reliable receivers, similar to what they used in their Super Bowl years.  With that in mind, Branch may be a better fit for this team going forward than Moss was, despite the large gap in talent between the two.  Branch's familiarity with Brady and the offensive gameplan will allow him to transition quickly into the system, making him a better choice than other available receivers.
  • The AFC South is in a 4 way tie, with all teams in the division having a record of 3-2.
  • Jacksonville still looks like they are by far the worst team in that division.  Beating Indy last week was impressive, but nobody gets too excited about beating Buffalo.
  • Remember Carson Palmer before that knee injury a few years ago?  He used to be good, right?  Not anymore.  Despite the hype of T.Ocho, the Bengals passing game has looked pretty dismal, with much of the blame falling on Palmer.  3 Interceptions in a game is bad.  When two of them come on your last two possessions of the game to set up two scores in less than a minute and a half that give Tampa the win - that's just awful.
  • Did Cleveland really think they could send in Jake Delhomme to save the day?  He came in mid-way through the game and predictably threw 2 Interceptions.  Carolina fans are nodding their heads.
  • Is it just me, or does Roddy White get 100 yards and a TD every week?
  • Atlanta is quietly becoming one of the best teams in the NFC. 
  • The Lions finally won a game!  This battle of bad teams seemed like it could be a toss up, but I did not expect a blow out like this.  The ugly season ending injury to Mark Clayton didn't help, but how do you not put up more than 6 points against the Lions defense?
  • Not sure if this proves that the Lions aren't as bad as their 0-4 record had shown, or that the Rams aren't nearly as good as their 2-2 record showed.  I'm guessing... a little bit of both.
  • The NFL no longer has an undefeated team, as the mighty Kansas City Chiefs have fallen.  Big surprise.
  • The Chiefs actually did a decent job of keeping Payton Manning off the field and out of the endzone.  They were hanging in there late in the game, until a TD run by Mike Hart (who?) put the game away.
  • There is some talent on this KC team, but you can't go far with Matt Cassell as your QB.
  • Popular pre-season Super Bowl pick, the Green Bay Packers, are looking awfully mediocre at 3-2.  An OT loss in Washington is not their greatest concern though.  Players are dropping like flies due to injuries.  QB Aaron Rodgers may miss next week's game with a concussion, that will undoubtedly drop this playoff hopeful team to 3-3.  The injury to TE Jermichael Finley looks more serious and could keep him out 3-6 weeks.
  • Donovan McNabb was the only QB to throw for over 300 yards this week and actually win the game.  Yet they claim this has turned into a passing dominant league...
  • Todd Collins threw for only 32 yards with only 6 complete passes and 4 Interceptions... but still WON the game!!  His hideous 6.2 QB rating has to be the lowest mark for a winning QB that I've ever seen. 
  • The Bears totaled over 200 yards of rushing offense, in case you were wondering how they managed to score at all in this game.
  • The Carolina QBs were nearly as bad as Collins.  Jimmy Clausen was benched for the man that he replaced earlier this season (Matt Moore), but neither of them managed to move the ball effectively enough against a tough Bears D to keep them in the game.  When the opposing QB is nearly historically bad and you still lose by 3 scores, you know your offense is struggling.
  • Despite dreadful QB play, Carolina refuses to use their two best weapons - RBs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.  They combined for 20 carries, but that number should be nearly double that.  Or at least involve them more in the passing game (especially with Steve Smith being out).  When the passing game clearly is not working, try giving the ball to your most talented players!
  • Kyle Orton continues to impress.  Despite a losing effort, he put up some good numbers against a good Baltimore defense.  The diving endzone catch by Brandon Lloyd was a thing of beauty.  He had 2 TDs of over 40 yds each.  So much for Orton being unable to throw the deep ball!
  • Ray Rice is finally starting to show signs of life.  Bad news, since the Patriots have to face him next week, with memories of Rice toasting them in last year's playoffs still fresh in their minds.
  • After Willis McGahee failed again to score on a goal line carry, the Ravens finally smartened up and decided to give Rice a shot.  He responded by scoring 2 short TDs.  They may be onto something...
  • The Giants D looked good again.  Only 3 sacks this week, so sorry, no more record performances like they had against the Bears, but impressive nonetheless.  Holding Matt Schaub (who had Andre Johnson back for this game) to under 200 yards passing is great, but to also hold this year's breakout star Arian Foster to only 25 rushing yards shows what a great all around effort they Giants D provided.
  • Hakeen Nicks is becoming a star.  He's big, fast and makes plays.  He's the much needed endzone threat they have missed since Plaxico Burress went to jail.  Eli may never put up the stats that his big brother does, but having a big play receiver like Nicks helps establish the younger Manning as an elite QB.
  • It also helps that the Texans have one of the league's worst pass defenses.
  • Maybe it's a Super Bowl hangover, but something is seriously wrong with the Saints.  They aren't playing with the same fire and determination they had last year.  They apparently thought they could sleep walk their way through this game, but it came back to bite them.  Arizona is not a good team, New Orleans just played sloppy.
  • Max Hall will forever be able to say he beat the defending Super Bowl Champions in his first NFL start.  He'll just fail to mention that he himself played poorly when telling the story.  This team's offense has become so pathetic that now even their running game can't get anything going against a Saints team that was ranked in the bottom 10 in the league in rushing defense.  Beanie Wells: 20 carries, 35 yards; Tim Hightower: 4 carries, 6 yards. 
  • The Cardinals defense isn't very good, in that they give up a ton of yardage on the ground and through the air, but they managed to capitalize on some mistakes by the Saints to score two TDs off turnovers (Interception and a fumble that were each returned for a TD) that decided the game.
  • Tony Romo threw for a career high 406 yards, but lost the game.  Typical for his career.  He can put up big stats to help your fantasy football team win, but can't win the game for his team when it counts.
  • Chris Johnson got himself back on track with a big game, but that 2,500K yard prediction of his is still looking pretty unrealistic.
  • It might be a good idea for Dallas to continue using Felix Jones more, like they did in this game.  He's so much more explosive than Marion Barber.
  • Miles Austin continues to amaze.  Romo threw to him in double coverage, on a ball that could easily have been intercepted, but Austin leaped up and snatched the ball away, then somehow split the defenders to carry the ball for a 70 yard TD.
  • Phillip Rivers joins the club of outstanding passing numbers in a loss.  He now leads the league in passing on a team that entered the week with the league's top rated offense and defense, yet has a 2-3 record to show for it.
  • Oh yeah, and Rivers also lost them the game by fumbling the ball with less than 1 minute to go, which was returned for a TD.  So much for last minute heroics.  The worst part is, they were already in FG range to win the game until a holding penalty knocked them back to the OAK 33 yard line.  A 50 yard field goal is still within range, especially when they could have ran the ball up the middle a few times to try to get a bit closer.  Why go into the shotgun to try to pass in this situation?  Only bad things could have happened - and they did.
  • Kevin Kolb gets his first win of the season as the Eagles starter, but will it be enough to keep his job once Vick is healthy?  Probably not, but I can see the two QBs going back and forth as starters several more times this season.
  • DeSean Jackson left early with a sprained knee, but you would hardly have noticed since Kolb apparently doesn't like to throw to him anyway.
  • The 49ers apparently still think they are a playoff team.  I guess anything is possible in that division, but an 0-5 hole will be pretty tough to climb out of.  Especially when Alex Smith is their QB.
  • Nice to see former 1st round pick Michael Crabtree finally contribute.  Still worth noting that the team had a winning record last year during his hold out but a losing record since he joined the active roster.
  • Randy Moss made his re-debut with the Vikings on Monday Night.  After the team managed nothing in the first half, Favre finally came to life in the 2nd half.  He connected with Moss on a 37 yard TD to finally put them on the scoreboard near the end of the 3rd quarter.
  • Speaking of Moss, the story about him getting into a fight with Tom Brady that led to them trading insults about each other's hair is now being denied by all reliable sources.  Not sure where that came from, but it seems way to ridiculous to be true.  Why would anyone tell Brady to cut his hair because he looks like a girl?  Ridiculous!
  • Some reporters are trying to blame the Vikings struggles on Favre being distracted by the allegations that he sent some racy text messages to a former Jets reporter.  Clearly Favre made up this story just to get himself in the news more.  With the team losing he just wasn't making enough headlines anymore.  Desperate times call for desperate measures.  In a related story of desperation, did I mention the Vikings recently traded for Randy Moss?
  • The Vikings famed "Williams Wall" is typically tough to run against, but the Jets did just fine.  LT had 94 yards on 20 carries, while Shonn Greene had 57 yards on only 10 carries, including an impressive 23 yard TD run.
  • Santonio Holmes returned from his suspension to post a mediocre 3 catch, 41 yard performance.  Nothing special, but he adds another threat to this offense that is looking more dangerous each week.
  • The Jets now lead the AFC East with a 4-1 record (thanks in part to the Patriots being off this week, so they remain at 3-1).  Coach Rex Ryan celebrated this news by yelling to his team "Now let's go eat a God damn snack!"
  • So far this season we have seen a lot more parity in the league.  Supposed powerhouse teams, such as the Colts, Cowboys and Packers, are off to slow starts.  Through 5 weeks we already are without an undefeated team (we had two teams go late in the season last year without a loss - Colts, Saints).  There are also only 3 teams left that have yet to win a game.  Out of those three, San Fransisco and Carolina were expected to be much better and should improve enough to at least win a few games.  Buffalo on the other hand is still horrible.  They will probably win a game or two out of pure luck, but they look like the best bet to end the season with the #1 pick in next year's draft, which they inevitably will blow by drafting another bust.

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Missing Moss?

They say fortune favors the bold.  Well, trading your most explosive playmaker mid-season certainly is bold - but will it pay off?

This is the question that fans all around New England are looking for answers to in the wake of the Patriots shocking announcement that they have traded star WR Randy Moss to the Minnesota Vikings for a 3rd round pick in the 2011 draft. 

The initial reaction from most fans is that this is a significant loss that weakens the offense and could potentially drop the Patriots from being amongst the elite teams in the AFC.  Moss is one of the greatest receivers of all time.  He's a touchdown machine, having set the single season league record with 23 TDs in 2007, and perhaps the most dangerous downfield threat we have ever seen.  A physical freak, Moss' athleticism and speed make him nearly impossible to cover when he's at his best.

The problem being - he is not always at his best.  Moss has a long history of coasting during games and taking plays off when he feels things aren't going his way.  An unhappy Randy is an unproductive Randy.  Make no mistake, Moss was unhappy and he made no attempts to hide that fact.  After an opening day victory over the Bengals in Week 1 Moss ranted about how he feels disrespected about not being offered a contract extension.  While others chose to discuss the game and praise their teammates for their contributions to their victory, Moss chose only to speak about himself.

While some players use their contract year as fuel to motivate them to have a great season, Moss clearly allowed his contract situation to become a distraction.  He complained both openly and privately about the issue and reportedly even asked the Patriots to trade him.  The tension may have hit a breaking point during halftime of the Patriots Week 4 game in Miami, when Moss argued with QB coach Bill O'Brien regarding the offensive gameplan.  Moss, who had only been targeted once in the first half (a pass that he dropped in the endzone) placed the blame on his coach for the team's 7-6 deficit at the half and demanded to be more involved in the second half.  As it turned out, Moss wasn't targeted at all in the second half, yet the team went on to steamroll the Dolphins on their way to a 41-14 victory.  Yet Moss was left unsatisfied because even though they won the game, his contributions did not show up in the box score.  Statistics are what will help Moss cash in another big pay day after this season, so a lack of targets in his direction isn't helping his goal - which isn't to win, but to get paid.

While it won't show up in any box scores, Moss can still impact the game even when he's not catching the ball. Defenses know what he's capable of, which often leads to double or even triple team coverage on him.  With Moss drawing so much of the defense's attention to him it leaves his teammates open to make plays.  Without Moss the Patriots no longer have the kind of playmaker that can stretch the field and draw that kind of extra coverage, which may make it harder for the other receivers to get open. 

With Moss out of the picture the Patriots will be required to change their offensive philosophy, but that may not end up being a bad thing.  They are likely to go back to the approach they used in their Super Bowl years, with Brady spreading the ball around to a variety of different receivers rather than hoping to have one star receiver make a big play.  We saw too many times in the Week 2 loss to the Jets that Brady was trying to force the ball to Moss in a desperate attempt to jumpstart the offense.  The plan didn't work, leading to two interceptions which likely cost them the game. 

The Patriots may not have another receiver as talented as Moss, but they still has plenty of other weapons, including Wes Welker, Brandon Tate, and Julian Edelman as receivers.  They will also rely more on their Tight Ends, particularly the rookies - Hernandez and Gronkowski.  We've seen a lot more two TE sets this year, so we can expect that to continue, with Hernandez proving to be a reliable pass catcher capable of making big plays and Gronkowski becoming a top target in the endzone.  No one player can replace what Moss brought to this offense, but the collective effort of them all can surpass it.  They will need some of these young players to step up, but in a small sample size we've so far seen that they're capable of it.

Another aspect of the trade that has been criticized is that the team was only able to acquire a 3rd round draft pick in exchange for Moss.  This seems like very low compensation for a player of Moss' caliber, unless you look at it in perspective.  In the offseason, Miami traded two 2nd round picks to acquire Brandon Marshall, who is another elite WR comparable to Moss.  Obviously this is a much greater haul than what the Patriots received, but we also could not have expected to get back nearly that much.  For one thing, Miami made the deal in the offseason, not 4 weeks into the regular season.  Immediately upon agreeing to the deal, Miami was able to re-sign Marshall to a long extension that will keep him around for several more years.  The Vikings have yet to reach such an extension with Moss, and it's possible they aren't looking to.  If Moss is just a one year rental for them then it's understandable why he wasn't worth more than that.  The 3rd round pick is comparable compensation to what the Vikings, and other teams, had been offering for San Diego Chargers receiver Vincent Jackson, another elite WR that is on the trading block due to a contract hold out.

Moss was becoming a malcontent that coach Bill Belichick was concerned would be a distraction for the team.  In the past the Patriots locker room had been filled with veterans like Teddy Bruschi and Rodney Harrison that were able to keep Moss in line, but most of those players are gone now.  There are a lot of impressionable young players there now and Belichick couldn't risk letting them be influenced by Moss' antics or let him poison the team's chemistry.  Rumor has it that if they weren't able to find a trade partner that they were considering cutting Moss and losing him for nothing.  Suddenly a third round pick doesn't seem so bad.  Whoever we draft in the 3rd round isn't likely to have the impact that Moss has had on this team, but that wasn't the intention of this trade.  It's addition by subtraction.  They hope to improve the team overall by removing a potential distraction.

This trade draws several comparisons to Manny Ramirez's ugly exit from Boston when the Red Sox were forced to trade him 2 years ago.  You'll remember that Ramirez became a malcontent and forced his way out of town by not playing hard, causing problems in the clubhouse and fighting with teammamtes and coaches.  Sound familiar?

Moss was unhappy about his uncertain future and he let his emotions impact his play on the field.  While he may still be amongst the best receivers in the game today, the fact is that he's 33 years old and starting to decline physically.  As he gets older, he won't be able to get by on his speed and athleticism anymore.  It's not hard to see why the team was hesitant to lock him up to an expensive long term extension, particularly with the uncertain labor agreement on the horizon.  Moss had already made it clear that he didn't expect to return to New England after this season, so rather than lose him for nothing after the season the team decided to cash in their chips and get something of value back before it's too late. 

The trade weakens them for this season from a talent standpoint, but the positive impact on team chemistry should help to balance that out.  The draft pick also helps strengthen the team in the long term, as the Patriots now have 2 draft picks in each of the first 4 rounds of next year's draft - their own picks, plus one from Oakland (1st), Carolina (2nd), Minnesota (3rd) and Denver (4th).  The Oakland pick is likely to be a high draft pick, possibly top 5, while the Carolina pick should be high in the 2nd round, making it nearly as valuable as a first rounder.  The extra mid-round picks can add some much needed depth to the team, or be used as trade chips to move up in the draft to get a more likely impact player or to trade for a more proven veteran.

There is no doubt that Randy Moss will be missed in New England.  He was as exciting a player to watch as this team has ever seen and the loss of his production will leave a big hole in this offense that needs to be filled by younger, unproven players.  However, this was a move that had to be done.  Moss forced Belichick's hand with his outbursts and moody behavior.  That attitude doesn't fit in with the team first philosophy that their coach preaches.  It's not the "Patriot Way."  In the end, Belichick refused to give in to the "Randy Way" and made the most of a bad situation.  In the long run, the team will be better for it.

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Patriots Week 4

It was a tale of two halves, which is not an uncommon theme for the Patriots on the road over the past two seasons.  This time though the results were different.  The achilles heel of the Patriots as of late has been their inability to win on the road (1-7 since last season heading into this game), as well as their frustrating trend of crumbling in the second half.  It happened far too often last season and reared it's ugly head again in Week 2 against the Jets.  But not this week.

The Patriots headed to South Beach for a Monday Night encounter with the divisional rival Dolphins as expected underdogs.  Their recent struggles on the road, particularly in Miami, combined with the fact that nobody thought the young New England secondary could contain superstar WR Brandon Marshall, led many to believe that Miami would prevail in a battle of offensive firepower.  Coach Belichick even went as far as to post an article from a Patriot's owned magazine showing that "experts" all picked Miami to win the game.

Through the first half of the game it appeared they may be right, at least in terms of a Miami victory.  Neither team played particularly well, as the Patriots struggled to move the ball on offense.  Meanwhile, the Dolphins moved the ball with relative ease, but suffered some key mistakes that halted some of their drives.  The result was a 7-6 halftime lead for the Dolphins.

That would all change in the second half.

I'm not sure what the coaching staff said to it's players in the Patriots locker room during halftime, but whatever it was, we saw a completely different team the rest of the way.  Evidence of this was clear right away, as Brandon Tate returned the opening kick-off for a TD.  The first of many big plays made by the Patriots Special Teams unit, which ultimately was the biggest deciding factor in the game.

Note: when your opponent fires their special teams coach right after the game, you know you did something right on your end.

With momentum back on their side, the Patriots refused to let up.  There would be no second half meltdown this time.  The defense stepped up to stop the Dolphins next drive, forcing them to punt.  That's when Patrick Chung (the unofficial player of the game - at least in my mind), made his presence felt by blocking the punt, allowing the Patriots to recover the ball with good field position and led to another quick TD.

Chung wasn't done there.  In the 4th quarter he helped seal the victory by blocking a FG attempt, which was recovered by Kyle Arrington for a TD.  Then he later intercepted a pass that he ran back for another TD.  A defense that desperately needed some playmakers appears to have found one.

The Patriots became the first team in NFL history to score a rushing touchdown, a receiving touchdown, a kickoff return for a touchdown, a blocked field goal for a touchdown and return an interception for a touchdown in the same game.  Now that's getting it done with an all around game!

An offense led by Tom Brady, with weapons like Randy Moss and Wes Welker at his disposal, is supposed to be required to put up big numbers in order for the team to win this lopsided of a score.  Yet this 41-14 victory required very little from its stars.  Welker led the receivers with a modest, yet unspectacular, 70 yard performance.  Moss was held without a catch for the first time in his Patriots career.  He was only targeted once all game, on a play where Brady took a page out of the book of former Dolphins star Dan Marino by faking a spike to stop the clock and instead lobbing a pass to Moss in the endzone.  Unfortunately, Vontae Davis, who did a great job shadowing Moss all day, didn't bite on the fake and the pass fell incomplete.

On this night the high powered offense wasn't needed, as the defense and special teams did enough on their own to crush the Dolphins spirits.  Chad Henne seemed capable of getting the ball to Devone Bess anytime he wanted in the first half, but after throwing his third interception of the game, he was pulled in the 4th quarter with the game already out of hand.

Brandon Marshall was supposed to be a matchup nightmare for the young Patriots corners, but he was shut out in the first half and finished with a modest 5 catches for 50 yards.  Not exactly the beastly performance Miami was expecting.

The supposedly formidable Dolphins running game was hardly a factor either.  Ricky Williams managed a few nice runs, but only received 8 carries in the game due to the Dolphins needing to play catch up in the second half.  Ronnie Brown was much more effective in the passing game as a receiver than he was running the football.  The Wild Cat, which did so much damage against the Patriots when it was originally unveiled a couple years ago, was hardly used and ineffective in the game.

While one game is clearly a small sample size, this game is an encouraging outlook for the rest of the season.  In one game the Patriots were able to prove that they are capable of overcoming nearly all of the major issues they have been plagued with - their road woes, second half meltdowns and defensive issues being the most notable.  While that's not to say that these issues won't pop up again as the season continues, but the team at least has proven to themselves what they are capable of doing.  It's up to them now to keep it up.

Monday, October 4, 2010

Week 4 in the NFL

It's Week 4, the first week of the season that Bye week's impact the schedule.  A week of rest for Dallas, KC, Minnesota and Tampa Bay.
  • Firing their OC hasn't done much to improve the 49ers offense.  They started out well, scoring a 1st quarter TD.  Their defense added another by recovering a blocked punt attempt in the endzone (a remarkable play, not just the block, but the recovery).  They never scored again, blowing a 14-0 lead to Atlanta after a last second FG.
  • Everyone's pre-season pick to win the NFC West is off to an abysmal 0-4 start, but don't count them out yet.  The other teams in the division are all 2-2, so making up those 2 games isn't impossible given how terrible the teams ahead of them are.
  • How many wins will it take to win the NFC West - 6, 7?  None of these teams seem capable of winning on the road, so it's possible none of them even gets to 8-8.  A sub-.500 team in the playoffs?
  • Another impressive win on a game winning FG for Atlanta.  They are looking to give the defending champs a run for their money for the NFC South division crown.
  • Either New York was able to find a time machine to bring back the LT from 2006 or... Buffalo's defense is just really bad.  They gave up 273 rushing yards, with both LT and Shonne Greene breaking the 100 yard mark. 
  • Greene actually had more carries than LT this week (22-19), but LT did more with his chances and also caught a few passes to even up the total touches.  Plus most of Greene's damage was done during garbage time of this blow out.  Pretty much the entire 2nd half of this game was garbage time.  Ok... maybe the whole game.
  • Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick led the team in both carries (7) and rushing yards (74).  So much for the 3 headed Bills rushing attack.
  • The Browns actually won a game?  Wow.  I think we can now eliminate the Bengals from the list of playoff contenders.
  • Another game that was a blast from the past, with big days for Carson Palmer and TO.  They also lost, so that's another reminder of the old days for the Bungles.
  • If you had to guess which pro athlete would be portrayed on a cereal box that "accidentally" listed the number for a phone sex line instead of a children's charity, OchoCinco would have to be a top 5 guess, right? Is this really a surprise? I'm also not sure it was really an accident.
  • So if Cleveland has two healthy RBs then they end up splitting the carries and neither does anything. But if one gets nearly 30 carries in a game, as was the case again this week for Hillis with Harrison injured, then they play well.  Similarly, Harrison ran wild the last few weeks of last season as the featured back.  So clearly the strategy for the Browns is to make sure one of their RBs is always injured so the other can be a workhorse.
  • The Packers may be 3-1, but they've yet to really be dominant.  Almost blowing a big lead at home to the Lions is not the way to show you are a Super Bowl contender.
  • The Lions may be 0-4, but they play hard and have had a couple of close games that make you wonder if they could be a potential spoiler team late in the season by pulling a big upset over a playoff hopeful team.
  • The Packers seemed to play the 2nd half as if they already had the game won.  Rodgers only had 17 pass attempts in the game.  You can't run down the clock with your running game when you DON'T HAVE a running game!  After a hot start the offense accomplished nothing and made too many mistakes, which allowed the Lions to chip away at the lead and make this a close game at the end.  Never should have been allowed to happen.  The Packers should have gone for their throats and kept pouring on the lead with their passing game, at least until late in the 4th quarter.  No lead is too safe in the NFL.
  • The Broncos offense putting up big passing numbers isn't a surprise given what they've been doing all year.  Their defense containing Chris Johnson for only 53 yards (2.8 yards/carry) is a big surprise.
  • When you're RBs combine for 8 yards on 17 carries, but you still win the game, you know the passing game must be clicking.  Kyle Orton is playing like a Pro-Bowler, leading the NFL in passing yardage.
  • The Rams are 2-2!  Sam Bradford is playing pretty well, for a rookie.  In a division that is up for grabs, could this team go from worst to first in the division?
  • Seattle is a terrible road team.  They looked awful in every aspect of the game.  Justin Forsett didn't do as much damage as he should have against a week rush defense, but at least the team seems to have finally smartened up by giving him the majority of the carries.
  • The Saints came back to win a close one with a FG near the end of the 4th quarter.  If they don't make the switch to bring in 46 year old John Carney to be their Kicker, do they still win this game?  Probably not.  They just better hope the oldest player in the league can make it through the rest of the season.  This offense doesn't seem nearly as explosive this year, so they'll need their Kicker to do more than kick a few extra points.
  • DeAngelo Williams was looking like a non-factor in the first half, but salvaged his day with a nice 39 yard TD run.  He showed excellent quickness in getting through some narrow holes and making cuts around his blockers to break free.
  • Lance Moore had a costly fumble near the goal line early in the game, but made up for it with a TD on the next drive.  Credit Drew Brees for not losing faith in his receiver in the Red Zone.
  • The Carolina defense is underrated.  They played well enough to keep their team in this game.  Unfortunately, their offense isn't even good enough to be rated at all.  If the ankle injury to Steve Smith forces him to miss any games then the passing game is going to struggle even more.
  • How did Jonathan Stewart get left that wide open on his 55 yard TD reception?  Couldn't tell if it was a bad defensive scheme or a mental error by a defender, but he was so wide open that he could have done cartwheels into the endzone.
  • Joe Flacco increased his case to inch his way closer to the discussion of elite QBs in the league with this game winning drive.  The game seemed lost after their drive stalled with an incompletion on 4th and 2 with under 3 minutes to go.  Their defense came up big by stuffing the run three consecutive times to get them the ball back with just over a minute to play.  Flacco drove the offense 40 yards on 4 plays, ending it with an 18 yard strike to TJ Houshmandzadeh for the game winning TD.
  • Tough loss for the Steelers, given how superior their defense has looked this season, only to have them fail when they needed them most in the end.  However, the team must be thrilled to have started the season 3-1 with Charlie Batch running the show.  They will get Rothlisburger back for their next game, and have a Bye next week to prepare and integrate him back into the offense.
  • The Texans caused wide spread panic throughout the Fantasy Football community (yes, myself included) with an unannounced benching of Arian Foster for the first quarter and a half.  Supposedly it was punishment for skipping a team meeting this week.  Foster still managed an impressive 187 total yards and 2 TDs, so we can't really complain.  But seeing the likes of Derrick Ward and Steve Slaton shred the woeful Oakland defense in the first quarter, we are only left to wonder what could have been had Foster been active for the whole game.
  • The Houston passing game could really use Andre Johnson back soon, but AJ80 picked a good game to skip.  He typically doesn't do well when gaurded by Asomugha.  Then again, who does?
  • Darren McFadden left early with an injury, potentially derailing his bounce back season.  Hopefully it's not serious, but hamstring injuries have a tendency to linger.
  • Shocking upset in Jacksonville, as they beat the Colts on a last second 59 yard FG.  Payton Manning masterfully ran the 2 minute drill once again, scoring the game tying TD with under a minute to go.  Apparently they left just a little too much time left on the clock, because it was enough for Jacksonville to get into FG range.  Who knew that 59 yards would be considered "in range"?
  • Big game for Reggie Wayne, as he had a career high 15 catches for 196 yards.  He also had a costly fumble, so it wasn't all good.  He now leads the league in receiving yards with 456.
  • Austin Collie now leads the league in TD receptions (5) and is 3rd in receiving yards (398).
  • Teams continue to run on the Colts, as MJD becomes yet another RB to break the 100 yard mark against them.
  • Donovan McNabb surprisingly received a warm reception during pre-game introductions.  He was booed by the crowd the rest of the afternoon, as the hostile Philly fans watched their former franchise QB defeat his old team.
  • Philly QBs were booed more than McNabb.  Never heard a QB booed louder by his home fans in the middle of a potential game winning drive.
  • The Philly QB controversy story added another twist.  This time it was Michael Vick leaving early with an injury, with Kevin Kolb filling in.  Kolb did nothing to make the Eagles think he deserves his old job back on a permanent basis.  He looked awful.
  • The hits that sandwhiched Vick between two defenders were painful to watch.  What made it worse was that his impressive run, which was stopped just short of the goal line, was called back due to a penatly.  So Vick put his body on the line for nothing.  No way he could have seen the flag, but someone on the sidelines must have known the flag was against them and they should have yelled for Vick to go down safely rather than needlessly sacrifice himself to try to make a play.
  • Kolb played it safe upon entering the game.  Too safe.  He rarely even attempted to stretch the field with long passes, instead settling for short passes to the Running Backs.  He seemed incapable of even throwing to his Wide Receivers, completing a total of only 3 passes to DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. 
  • Credit the Redskins defensive scheme for using a safety to help take away the deep balls for Jackson, but Kolb was unable to make them pay for it to make them stop doing it.  He doesn't look like an NFL QB so far this season, and may not get many more chances to prove that he is capable.
  • Eagles Coach Andy Reid continues to screw up game management.  The delay of game penalty at the end of the first half cost them a chance to try to punch in a short TD from the 1 yard line.  Instead they settled for a FG, which didn't exactly shift momentum in their direction.  That penalty is inexcusable after a time out.  Reid blamed the spot of the ball (which was placed at the 1 yard line before the penalty when it looked like it should have been more like 1 foot from the goal line), while the TV announcers (mostly Tory Aikman) couldn't shut up about how it was the ref's fault for not resetting the play clock properly.  There may be some truth to both of those concerns, but with the extra time during the time out to prepare, they should have been ready in plenty of time.
  • It looks like Derek Anderson may have lost his job to an undrafted rookie QB.  Hall didn't do much better when he came into the game, but at least he only turned the ball over once instead of the two turnovers that Anderson had.  So there's progress.
  • The Chargers were high on rookie RB Ryan Mathews before the season started, but his stock seems to have dropped.  Maybe it has something to do with the ankle injury that kept him out last week, but Tolbert had the majority of the carries in this game.  Mathews got most of his yardage in garbage time.  If the team was worried about overworking him due to the injury then you'd think it would have been the other way around, by limiting his work once the game was already in hand.  Very strange way for the team to handle the guy they thought was going to be their workhorse back of the future to replace LT.
  • Philip Rivers didn't have to throw much (which cost him his league lead in passing yards), but when he did throw it was primarily to Antonio Gates.  He was unstoppable (144 yds, 2 TDs).
  • The Giants defense played as tough as we've seen them in a couple of years, as they smothered the Bears with their unrelenting pass rush.  10 sacks!!  I'm not sure if Jay Cutler really left with a concussion or if he was just tired of getting hit and was looking for a way out.  Couldn't blame him. 
  • His backup, Todd Collins, was also knocked out with an injury.  Which is probably for the best, because he was about as awful as you could be.  Who knew an 8.1 QB rating was even possible?  He threw one of the ugliest looking Interceptions that you'll ever see, and would have had another one picked off, except the play was called back due to a penalty.  How has this guy been in the league this long?
  • Ahmad Bradshaw had a big game running the ball against a solid defense.  He got banged up a little near the end, allowing Brandon Jacobs to steal a few carries to seal the victory.  He needed that finish to try to get himself back in the good graces of his coach, because he was invisible for most of the game.
  • It didn't end up costing them due to the Bears' offense being so ineffective, but fumbles were a big problem for the Giants.  Bradshaw can't really be blamed too much for his since he had no way of seeing the defender coming up behind him.  That was just a great play to punch the ball out from behind and prevent a TD after a long run.
  • Eli fumbled twice, but one of them was really not his fault.  The QB always gets credited with the fumble on a hand-off to the RB because Jacobs never actually had control, but there was nothing wrong with the hand-off.  It was clearly a case of the wet football squirting out of Jacob's hands before he could get a handle on it.  There were a couple other carries where you could see the ball nearly pop out as well.  He needs to do a better job of holding on to the football.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs were on a Bye this week, which has left them as the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL!  How much money could you have won in Vegas betting on that to happen? 
  • Dallas is off to a miserable start this season, but they have to be happy to see the rest of their division are all at 2-2, so they are only 1 game back.  Hopefully they can put it together after their Bye week.
  • I know it's still early, and they are tied with 2 other teams in their division, but I like seeing the Colts listed in last place in the AFC South.  Still don't see them missing the playoffs, but they might miss their chance at a first round Bye.  They are 0-2 in their division and 1-2 on the road.  Good thing the Pats get to play them in New England this year.
  • Tom Brady is taking his talents to South Beach tonight... to play the Dolphins.  He typically struggles playing in Miami, and I don't see how the young Patriots secondary can contain Brandon Marshall.  Wes Welker has had a lot of success against his former team, and Brady has more of a variety of weapons than he has in the past, so this could be a shoot out.  Look for a new article tomorrow discussing this Monday Night game.