I've been playing fantasy football for nearly a decade, so along the way I've picked up a fair amount of knowledge about the game. Not long ago, being in a fantasy sports league was considered something that dorks get together to do in their mother's basement. That's no longer the case, in part because now the Internet calculates the stats for you, so you don't need to be a math nerd to play. Fantasy sports have exploded into mainstream society, being covered by journalists, bloggers, and TV analysts, to name a few. It's no longer uncommon for a group of guys to discuss the performance of their fantasy teams in much the same way that they would discuss their favorite "real life" teams.
There are several draws to fantasy sports. Competition is a big reason. Even if you aren't betting any money in your league (which of course you aren't, because... you know... that would be wrong), there can still be friendly competition amongst friends. There's no greater joy in the game than bragging to one of your buddies about how you crushed their team the previous week. A little trash talking spices up the competitive nature of the game. Just don't get too carried away with it, no need to make it personal.
A less obvious draw to the fantasy game, but one that has become a personal favorite reason for playing, is that it creates more interest in watching games. Everyone has their favorite sports team that they root for, and also teams they like to root against (J-E-T-S!), but what happens when the only televised game in your area doesn't involve one of those teams? Sure the Vikings and Packers looks like it should be a good game, so as a football fan it would be interesting to watch. But as a Patriots fan, do you really care who wins? Probably not, but if you have Adrian Peterson or Aaron Rogers on your fantasy team then you at least care how they perform. It makes you become more invested in the outcome of the game, which makes things more exciting. Imagine trailing by 10 points in your weekly match-up heading into the Monday night game and you still have one of your Running Backs starting in that game. Wouldn't you be on the edge of your seat all game, watching points pile up with each yard as you slowly close the gap? That was rhetorical, of course you would, and if you wouldn't then you're not a fan of football, competition or fun in general.
Another benefit to fantasy sports is that it makes you more knowledgeable about players and teams around the league. The Texans have never been good, never even been to the playoffs, so unless your from Texas then would you even know who Matt Schaub is? If you play fantasy sports you do, because he's arguably one of the top 5 QBs in the league. He may never win a Super Bowl, but he could help you win your fantasy league title.
So we've established the many reasons why you should join a fantasy league. Now you just need to know how to win one. Of course there is no fool proof formula for this (if there was, and everyone followed it, then would everyone win?). If we could predict how everything would turn out now then it would take the fun out of it. As they say, that's why they play the games. There will always be new break out stars and old stars that break our hearts. Injuries can wreck a team that looks good on paper, and sometimes it just comes down to dumb luck. There are a lot of factors that play out through the 17 week season, so the team you draft that looked so dominant on paper to start the season likely won't be exactly the same as the team you finish with (unless you're one of those jerks that stopped paying attention after week 4).
Still, it all starts with the draft. It's been said that you can't win a league with your draft, but you can lose it. I'm not sure who first said it, but he seems like he must have been a pretty smart guy. So being prepared on draft day is key to getting off to a good start. The game has evolved in recent years to become more pass oriented. Teams like the Patriots, Colts and Saints have put up historic passing numbers and really changed the game from previous eras that saw many teams pounding the ball with a workhorse Running Back. This has to factor in to your draft strategy, as the old rule of thumb that said that you "have to" get at least one, preferably two, stud RBs with your first two picks in the draft no longer applies. Depending on where you pick in the first round, this not only may not be the best idea, but may not even be possible.
Many teams have gone with a Running Back by committee approach, rather than having a starter that handles the ball 20+ times per game. We once condemned coach Mike "Lucifer" Shannahan for doing this, but now more than half the teams in the league do it. There are really only 4 RBs that you can feel comfortable about taking in the first round: Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice. After that there is a tier just below them that could also join the category of elite if they stay healthy, but they come with a lot of risk for a 1st round pick (Stephen Jackson, Frank Gore, Michael Turner). All of those guys will likely go in the first round, but in a standard 10 team league that would mean that teams drafting at the end of the round may not have a shot at any of them. So they are forced to make a tough choice - either reach for a RB that isn't really good enough to have been drafted with your first pick (Rashard Mendenhall, Shonn Greene, Ryan Grant) or go another route and pick an elite WR or QB. A few years ago you'd likely have been laughed at for taking a non-RB in the first around, with the exception of maybe Payton Manning, but many would still not have advised him as a first rounder. After all, you don't get points for the number of commercials you are in or the number of boogers you flick. The game has changed, so our strategy must change with it.
There are less RBs considered to be a lock, but the committees that most teams employ open up more mid-tier RBs that can be found later in drafts. This allows you to experiment more with different combinations in the early rounds rather than the old RB-RB combo to start out with. It's not inconceivable to go WR-WR or WR-QB to start out with. You'll get elite talent at those positions while still being able to fill in your RB spots with some decent talent in rounds 3-5 (Jonathan Stewart, Beanie Wells, LeSean McCoy), plus any potential diamonds in the rough that you may be lucky enough to land later (Justin Forsett, Ahmad Bradshaw, Donald Brown).
Drafting at the end of the first round gives you lots of options to pick from (especially since in a snake draft you'd be drafting early in the 2nd round). This year would be tough to pick in the middle of the round though. Picking 6th for example seems like it'd be too early to go for a QB or WR, so you may get stuck with Jackson because he's too talented to pass up at that point, but also comes with some risk due to age/injury concerns.
Now to settle the debate of what happens if you end up with the first overall pick. Depending on your league format and rules, this could change. For example, in a PPR league (points per reception) you could make the argument that Ray Rice should go first since he led all RBs in receptions last year with 78. In a Keeper League you may use a different strategy, especially if it's continuing an existing league where the top players have already been kept. For the purposes of this debate, we'll assume it's a standard league. So in this case, the number one pick comes down to two choices - Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson.
The popular pick in most leagues will be Johnson, who led all players in points last year while rushing for just over 2,000 yards on 358 carries, while adding 14 TDs. Meanwhile, Peterson rushed for 1,383 yards on 314 carries and 18 TDs. Still a solid season, just not as spectacular as the numbers Johnson put up. That doesn't necessarily mean that either will put up similar numbers this year though. Not many RBs have rushed for 2,000 yards in a season, but the one thing that all the others that did it before Johnson have in common is that none of them came close to doing it again the following year. RB is a position that takes a physical toll on a player, more so than other positions, because they are getting hit hard almost every time they touch the ball. Granted CJ had a fair amount of runs where his blazing speed burned defenders so that he was never touched on the play, but that was hardly the norm. 358 is a lot of carries, and even if he is able to perform as well as last year, he's unlikely to be relied upon to carry it that many times again.
On the other hand, Adrian Peterson has more of a track record, having been amongst the elite RBs in each of his 3 years in the league. He was last year's no-brainer first overall pick this time last year, and while his stats dipped slightly you can blame some of that on the change in offensive philosophy that came with the addition of Brett Favre. Even if Favre does return this season (he's already changed his mind 3 times since you started reading this article) it's unlikely that at his age and recovering from an ankle injury that he'll be able to play as well as he did last year, when he posted one of the best seasons of his Hall of Fame career. The effectiveness of the passing game limited the opportunities for AP to get the ball, which helps explain the 50 carry differential between AP and CJ. Expect CJ's carries to decrease while AP's could go up. That will help bring their yardage total closer together. CJ also can't be expected to break as many long TD runs, so his TD total could go down, whereas AP will continue to get more goal line carry TDs. You can make a fair case for either guy to go number one overall, but personally I would take All Day first any day.
Wide Receiver generally has a lot of depth, but while some leagues only require you to start 2 WRs each week, some leagues require 3 or 4 (possibly more if you use a flex WR/RB slot). You will likely end up with more WRs of your roster than any other position, which makes it all the more important to try to get one of the elite guys: Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Calvin Johnson, or Larry Fizgerald. You can take the top 15-20 guys and consider yourself satisfied to own any of them, but considering the need to start multiple WRs there may be teams that try to get 2 or 3 of the top guys, which means the depth runs out quicker than you'd expect. Wait too long and you'll be stuck without any of the top guys at the position. It's generally good to get 1 or 2 of the top 10-15 guys, get another 1 or 2 from the middle rounds (Hakeem Nicks, Michael Crabtree, Mike Wallace) and then hope to strike gold in the later rounds with some high upside sleeper picks. Sometimes the biggest breakout guys are the ones nobody talked about or expected, but maybe you could get lucky and draft this year's Miles Austin. Just don't count on that, so make sure to draft some studs within the first 4 or 5 rounds.
Fantasy leagues, or even drafts, aren't won in the first couple of rounds. While a first round bust can derail a team, the middle rounds are important too. Sure, you can take some flyers in the late rounds hoping to strike gold, because you can always drop those guys if you find the next break out star available on the waiver wire. But a guy that you took earlier in the draft is harder to part with. Part of the problem many owners have isn't due to a guy having a let down season or because they got injured, but often times it's because they overvalued not just the player, but the position. This leads us to perhaps the #1 rule in Fantasy Football.
Never draft a Kicker before the last round!!!
Just don't do it. Ever. Know why? Because you can't predict who the best Kicker is going to be. Often times the best Kickers aren't even drafted that year. Because Kicker points are about opportunity, which is impossible to predict. A team with a high scoring offense may get you lots of extra points (1 point) but not many FGs (which can be worth between 3-5 points in a standard league). Some kickers are better at hitting long range FGs, and some are more accurate than others, but that doesn't mean they will make the most because they may not attempt the most. The difference between the best Kicker last year and the 10th best Kicker was a measly 32 points, which amounts to 2 points per week. That's it. And I certainly wouldn't bet money on Nate Kaeding finishing 1st again this year.
It's generally a good idea to wait until near the end to pick a Defense as well. Some owners will reach for the top defenses (NYJ, SF, PHI), but generally it's better to wait until the last few rounds to take a Defense. I'd typically prefer to wait until the 2nd or 3rd to last round. The top Defenses in reality don't always make the best Defenses in fantasy sports. It's harder to predict from season to season which teams D will finish in the top 10, so unless you're confident that you can get one of the few elite teams then you're better off waiting.
Tight End used to be a position you would be willing to reach for an elite guy because after the top few guys the drop off was a pretty large gap. That's no longer the case, as the position is now uncharacteristically deep. If you don't want to waste a 3rd round pick on Antonio Gates or Dallas Clark then you can wait a few rounds to get JerMichael Finley or Vishante Shiancoe. Even if you end up with the 10th best TE, you'll still have a player that can contribute fairly consistently. There are also guys in the later rounds that you can get that could end up being a steal, like John Carlson or rookie Jermaine Gresham. By filling the position in the middle rounds instead of in round 3 or 4 you avoid passing up on adding some quality depth at WR or RB, or have to wait longer to get a QB if you haven't done so already.
Speaking of QB, this is another position with a lot of depth. In a standard league in which you can only start 1 QB you will likely end up starting the same guy every week (except his Bye week). There are 8 QBs that are considered safe bets to start every week. Three of those guys (Rogers, Brees, Manning) are at the top and may require a 1st or 2nd round pick. If you don't want to pick a QB that early then you should be pretty well off with Brady, Romo, Schaub, Favre, or Rivers. It's doubtful that anyone would pick 2 of those guys if they can only start 1 (they shouldn't at least), which means in a 10 team league, all but two teams will have one of these guys and be pretty happy about it. The remaining teams will still have options, such as Cutler, Kolb and Flacco. They would make a great option as a back-up QB, but for those teams that don't get a top guy they can rotate between guys at that level or hope one of them has a break-out season while being satisfied knowing that while other teams were using earlier picks on QBs they were (hopefully) gaining an advantage at other positions.
A valuable key to having a good fantasy draft is identifying "Sleepers." This term refers to guys that haven't reached the elite level, but stand a good chance to have a breakout season. They are more risky, but because of this they can often be selected later in drafts because more casual owners may not have heard of them or may be overly cautious due to the player's lack of a track record. The benefit of these Sleeper picks is that they give you the best return on investment. Anyone can figure out that they should take Adrian Peterson in the first round, but if you were clever enough to get Ray Rice several rounds later then you'd have gotten a much better ROI for a player that finished 4th amongst RBs last year.
On the other hand, you have to beware of a player that has been over-hyped as a sleeper. If too many people are predicting that a guy will break out then his draft value may get overinflated. If he does indeed breakout then you'll end up with the type of player you should have expected to get with that high pick, but the ROI isn't as great. If the player doesn't live up to the hype then you've wasted an early pick. A true sleeper is someone that ends up being a bargain.
With that in mind, here are a few top choices for sleepers. Keep in mind that these aren't all players I'm suggesting you draft early, but they are low risk/high reward players that you can target towards the end of the draft.
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford - he struggled last year with injuries and typical rookie inconsistencies, but with a year under his belt he should improve. The Lions defense is still terrible, which could lead to many shoot outs where they will be forced to throw to catch up. They've added some weapons around him, and if Calvin Johnson can stay healthy then the former top overall pick will have some good targets to throw to.
Chad Henne - he finished strong at the end of last season and now has a legit WR threat to throw to in Brandon Marshall. Considering the options he had last year (Ginn, Jr?), this is a huge upgrade.
Ben Rothlisberger - Big Ben could possible go undrafted in some leagues due to the fact that he'll be suspended for the first 4-6 weeks of the season due to certain off field issues involving a college girl in a restroom at a bar. If not for that then he could have been considered a possible top 5 QB, so when he does come back there's no reason to think he won't at least be around the top 10 for the rest of the season. You don't have to like the big goon to benefit from the points he'll put up. Draft him as a backup, especially if you don't get an elite QB as your starter.
Running Back
Jamaal Charles - he may go in the 2nd or 3rd round, but he could have 1st round value. Over the last 8 weeks of last season he was the 2nd best RB in the game, only behind Chris Johnson. He will slip in some drafts because of people concerned about the addition of Thomas Jones, but Charles is still the guy in KC and could be in for a big season.
Justin Forsett - the Seattle backfield is a mess, but Forsett is clearly the most talented guy there. Eventually their coaching staff has to realize this and give him a healthy dose of touches. He'll likely be drafted as a backup, but could provide value as a RB2.
Donald Brown - he's in a high powered offense that scores a lot. Indy would not have used an early round pick on him if they didn't intend to transition the role to him at some point. Joseph Addai is still their starter, and should be drafted earlier, but he's much more likely to be a bust while Brown is the better value.
Wide Receiver
Johnny Knox - Mike Martz brings his circus offense to Chicago, which means that Jay Cutler can expect to throw even more Interceptions (is that possible??) but also put up big passing yardage numbers. Someone needs to be on the receiving end of that, and the speedy Knox could be the biggest beneficiary.
Jacoby Jones - He's a big, fast, physical receiver, not unlike teammate Andre Johnson. He didn't do much last year, but he did a lot with what he did do, averaging over 16 yards per catch. Expect him to get a lot more than the 27 catches that he got last season.
Malcolm Floyd - last year's top target, Vincent Jackson, is suspended to start the season and could potentially hold out the entire season over a contract dispute. His loss is Floyd's gain, as he now becomes the top WR. The Bolts like to throw, especially since they now have a rookie RB as their starter, and Floyd can make big plays (over 17 yds/catch last season).
Wes Welker - he's a beast in PPR leagues and in standard leagues still finished just outside the top 10 for receivers last year. A scary knee injury that kept him out of most of the season finale and postseason will make some owners shy away from him. He's yet to play in a pre-season game, but did participate in training camp and could possibly be ready to play in Week 1. Many leagues have Welker buried in their rankings if they haven't updated them since earlier in the pre-season when Welker was expected to miss the first 6 weeks with the injury. Now that he's expected back much sooner than that he should be bumped up your rankings, and may get overlooked by people that aren't thinking about him.
There are so many other aspects to a successful fantasy season that it's impossible to cover them all, but these tips are at least a good start to prepare you for draft day. The nice thing about fantasy football is that since teams only play once per week it's a lot easier to keep up with than other sports because you can probably get away with only checking your team a couple times a week and still stay competitive. That means you don't have to obsessively look over your team to find ways to improve via trade or the waiver wire on a daily basis (guilty!), so more casual fans can join in and get crushed... ummm... I mean enjoy it.
That's what it's really all about, is having fun. Yes, it's competitive and there's trash talking, but it's all in good fun. If you keep that in mind then you'll be able to expand your knowledge about different players and teams around the league while having a great time beating your friends. No football fan can resist that. Unless your Brett Favre, in which case you go back and forth debating if you want to join the league or not. Oh wait, he's in. So draft him.
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