Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Celtics Drop the Ball with Sheed

The speculation over Rasheed Wallace's future in Boston was finally resolved when the Celtics announced that they have waived the remaining 2 years of the contract he signed last offseason, signaling Wallace's intent to follow through on his plan to retire.  It's not much of a surprise that Wallace is retiring, after having watched him struggle for most of this past season, but what is surprising is the Celtics inability to take advantage of a great opportunity to improve this team.  Letting Wallace simply walk away for nothing is equivalent to some of the bricks 'Sheed clanked off the rim while hoisting up shots from behind the arc.  Seems rather fitting actually.

When Wallace informed the Celtics he was considering walking away from the remaining 2 year, $13 million contract to retire, they were in a great position to use his contract to their advantage.  He became their golden ticket.  With so many teams in the league struggling financially, yet far from contending, this contract should have been in high demand.  This is better than the expiring contracts that have shown in the past to be so valuable as trading chips.  Wallace could be traded to a team that could then immediately clear $13 million off their books over the next two years once he officially retires.  There are plenty of teams that would love the opportunity to cut that much cash to help get them under the salary cap to allow them to sign another free agent this year or next.  Other teams would make the move just to help get them under the luxury tax.

The Celtics really need another wing player to bring off the bench and help limit the minutes for both Paul Pierce and Ray Allen.  Tony Allen filled that role down the stretch last season, as the defensive stopper that could come in to guard either position.  When he was stolen away by Memphis it left a void on the Celtics bench.  Their current roster would need to rely on Marquis Daniels to fill that role, meaning he not only needs to stay healthy, but also remain as effective as he was at the beginning of last season, as opposed to the player who was nearly invisible after returning from a lengthy injury.  Nate Robinson is an offensive spark plug that is capable of carrying the second unit with his scoring, but he's undersized and never been known for his defense.  They also drafted Avery Bradley, who is projected to become a good defensive guard, but a veteran team with championship aspirations may not be able to rely much on a rookie.  At 6'2'' he may also struggle to cover bigger guards and couldn't fill in for Pierce at the SF position.  He's likely to be used as a back-up to Rajon Rondo at point guard.

Losing Allen is comparable to losing James Posey after the 2008 season.  He's not a star, but he filled a valuable role that will not easily be replaced.  As was the case after Posey retired, someone else will now need to step up in that role for the team to be successful.

The team spent most of their offseason loading up on big men to replace Wallace and the injured Kendrick Perkins, as well as to help with one some of their biggest weaknesses - rebounding and interior scoring.  The addition of the O'Neals (Shaquille and Jermaine) will be a big boost for the team in that department and give them the most intimidating front court in the league, with plenty of depth once everyone is healthy.  This will be vital when matching up against the likes of Orlando and the Lakers.  The Finals last year showed us that we weren't able to match up against the big bodies of Gasol, Bynum and Odom, especially once Perkins got injured.  If they can all remain healthy and contribute then we won't have to worry about being dominated on the boards or in the paint anymore.

Their lack of depth on the wings could come back to haunt them though, especially when matching up against a team like Miami that has LeBron James and Dwayne Wade.  Boston currently doesn't have anyone that can truly be relied on from their bench to matchup with those guys, and their aging stars can't be expected to play as many minutes as their younger opponents.  That's why Wallace's contract could have been used as an ace up our sleeves.  He could have been used to acquire the type of player this team desperately needs.

The problem isn't just finding a willing trade partner, it's also about finding a player to receive in return that has a contract which comes close to matching Wallace's.  Since the Celtics are over the salary cap (and their presumed trading partner would be as well) then neither team can take back a contract that is 125% plus $100,000 more than what they are giving away.  Wallace's salary for this season is just north of $6.3 million, so the player they get in return would have to be close to that same figure (approximately less than $8 million at most).

There may not be a lot of options that fit that criteria, but here are a few reasonable options that would work under the salary cap rules.  These are all teams that are boarderline playoff teams, at best, and are all over the salary cap and/or luxury tax.

Charlotte

Steven Jackson (3 yrs) for Rasheed Wallace, Avery Bradley and 2011 1st round pick
The Bobcats may be good enough to sneak into one of the bottom seeds in a top heavy Eastern Conference, but they are not a very good team, with few pieces to build on for their future.  As they stand now, they seem destined to continue in this state of mediocrity - an early playoff exit, mediocre draft position and no salary cap room.  Trading Jackson would likely put them back in the lottery where they could start to rebuild around a younger player.  Bradley would also need to be included to help make the salaries match, but he's more than just a throw in, as the young guard shows a lot of potential and would be a good fit for a team that plays with a defensive mentality.
For Boston, they sacrifice a young player that they likely wouldn't be able to give many minutes to and get a proven veteran scorer capable of filling up the box score.  He could be an explosive option off the bench and could be used to give Pierce or Allen a rest.  The downside is that his contract runs for three more years, which doesn't fit in with the team's plan to rebuild in 2012 when KG and Ray's contracts expire, but Jackson could at least help keep Boston in the playoffs for an extra year after those guys are gone, or they can use his expiring contract as a trading chip as they start to rebuild around Rondo.

Philadelphia
Andres Nocioni (2 yrs) for Rasheed Wallace and 2011 1st round pick
The Sixers aren't going anywhere anytime soon and seem unlikely to be able to give away Elton Brand's albatross of a contract to free up cap space.  Nocioni is expendable, as he does not seem to fit in their long term plans and only gets in the way of giving minutes to Evan Turner, their future star.  This clears up a little bit of cap space for the next couple years and gives them an additional draft pick to help in their rebuilding efforts.
For Boston this works because Nocioni is a hard nosed hustle player that could bring some energy and defense to the second unit.  They looked to acquire him in the middle of last year before Philly beat them to it as part of their move to dump Sam Dalembert's contract.

Houston
Shane Battier (1 yr) for Rasheed Wallace and 2011 1st round pick
This is probably the best option on the list for both teams.  Houston is a fringe contender (even if Yao is healthy) and Battier is fairly expendable since they already have a lot of money tied to Trever Ariza, who plays the same position.  There have been rumors that they have been trying to move him for salary relief.  He's on an expiring contract, so they may just hang on to him and let him leave after this season, but acquiring Wallace's contract would allow them to cut that money off their payroll immediately, which is huge considering they are over the luxury tax.  A draft pick can be thrown in to help entice this offer.
Boston would acquire a perfect replacement for Tony Allen.  He's a great defender and team player that does a lot of the little things.  He's a "glue guy" that would help solidify the bench.  He isn't typically relied on to score much, but he's capable of making some outside shots.

New Orleans
David West (2yrs) for RasheedWallace, Glenn Davis and 2011 1st round pick
The Hornets would need to get permission from Chris Paul first, to ensure he doesn't riot after trading away his best running mate.  As it is he already demanded a trade (he has since backed off that statement, but don't be fooled - he still wants out).  If they do end up giving in and trading Paul then rebuilding becomes a must and West would have to go in that scenario as well.  Even if Paul stays, if they can convince him to hang on for one more rebuilding year, then this move could help them get under the cap for next season, when they will also have Peja's contract coming off their books.  Big Baby Davis would be a decent replacement for West, plus he's younger and a lot cheaper.
While he may not consistently put up the All-Star caliber numbers that he's shown in the past, West would still be an upgrade over Davis.  He's overpaid, but his two year contract matches up with the team's financial timeline.

Dare to dream.  All of those options would provide Boston an upgrade to their bench, and all are conceivable under the salary cap rules and given the other team's needs.  Even if those deals aren't available now, who's to say they won't be available later in the offseason, or even in mid-season?

The only real benefit to waiving Wallace is that is saves money.  Granted it's a lot of money, considering the team is in the luxury tax.  This means that for every dollar they spend once they are over the luxury tax it costs the team double.  However, this does nothing but put more money back in the owner's wallet.  It does nothing to improve the team's chance to win.  It does free up a roster spot, so the team can now sign one more player before the team will have the maximum number of players under contract, but that player will need to come at the veteran's minimum.  There isn't much left on the free agent market, and it may not be easy to convince the options that are out there to play for the minimum.  Even if they can, it's tough to get excited over someone like Larry Hughes, Michael Finley or Bobby Simmons.  Making a trade instead would have let us acquire a better player that would add more value to the team.

It's possible that GM Danny Ainge did explore all of these options and was unable to find a willing trade partner.  However, it seems like he gave up too early, or was too content with what they have.  If they can't find the right veteran to bring in now then they may use that last roster spot on either Tony Gaffney or Oliver Lafayette, both of whom have non-guaranteed contracts.  It's possible that the team will considering going that route, while waiting to see what veteran's become available in mid-season, either through trades or waiting for those veterans to be cut from their current teams.  Maybe by then 'Sheed will have changed his mind and be willing to come out of retirement for a couple of months.  Of course, if he did that then he wouldn't get to use the whole regular season to work himself into game shape, but with the depth we have in the frontcourt now, he also would no longer be counted on for over 20 minutes per game.

You never know what options may present themselves, even during the season.  There will still be opportunities to improve this team before the playoffs.  This team proved last year that the regular season doesn't mean much for them, as they are plenty capable of winning playoff games on the road and stepping up when the games really count.  Yet I still can't help but feel that we let a golden opportunity slip through the cracks here.  As 'Sheed was fond of saying, "Ball don't lie."  Well the truth is, the Celtics dropped the ball on this one.

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