The whole system is a mess. It's bizarre, unpredictable and disorganized to the point where it really doesn't benefit either side. What I'm talking about, of course, is the system for NFL player contracts. Unlike most major sports, the NFL does not give out fully guaranteed contracts. While we watch NBA teams like the Knicks be burdened for years by cap killing contracts (yes, that would be you, Eddy Curry), NFL owners need not worry as much about their bad signings. If they don't work out, they can just get rid of them, while only paying a portion of the original contract. This sounds like it would be fantastic from the owner's point of view, but it doesn't always work out that way. In some cases the lack of financial security drives the players into a situation where a combination of uncertainty and greed leads to a scenario that ends up hurting both sides - a Hold Out.
A Hold Out occurs when a player determines his worth to the team does not match the contract he's currently under. So despite the fact that the player has a signed contact stating he will work for a certain amount of money, the player refuses to join the team until the owner gives into his demands for a new contract. It's basically the business equivalent of throwing a hissy fit. Generally a Hold Out will begin in training camp and often gets resolved before the season starts once both sides eventually come to an agreement. Sometimes it can get ugly. In these cases, the player and ownership are both entrenched in their positions and refuse to budge, which can lead to the player sitting out games once the season starts. If they don't rejoin the team by Week 10 of the regular season then they won't receive credit for playing that season, which means they have to wait an extra year before they are eligible to become a free agent.
When the situation escalates to the point of missing games, nobody wins. The player still isn't getting their new contract and in fact is losing money by missing games and possibly even being charged fines by the team. Generally it's a star player that is holding out (why would a lower level player bother trying to hold out when they are easily replaceable and have no chance of having their demands met?), so the Hold Out has a negative impact on the team as well. They have a hole to fill, which likely will be plugged with a less talented player. Depending on the player's position and the team's depth in that area, this will likely weaken the team and make it harder for them to win games. The best way to resolve this if neither side is willing to give in is to try to meet somewhere in the middle, but unfortunately these compromises don't always happen.
The Patriots currently find themselves in such a predicament with Left Guard Logan Mankins. The two time Pro Bowler is a key member of the offensive line that does such a great job of protecting Tom Brady. His value to the team is immeasurable, and unfortunately he knows it. He has refused to sign the $3.36 Million tender the team has offered and is prepared to sit out until his demands are met. Despite the fact that the team could have refused to pay him any more than that tender offer, they attempted to re-negotiate a long term contract with their star Guard that would be worth over $7 Million per year. Mankins rejected the offer, demanding a contract similar to the 7 year, $56.7 Million contract signed earlier this year by New Orleans Saints Guard Jahri Evans. Mankins claims to have enough money saved in the bank that he has no concerns about sitting out the entire season. His hope is that the new Collective Bargaining Agreement set to be negotiated after this season will result in him being able to become a free agent after this season, regardless of if he plays a game this year or not, at which point he will likely be able to demand a larger contract on the open market. Meanwhile, the Patriots have a big hole to fill in their offensive line (which already has taken another hit from an injury to Nick Kaczur), so they can't afford to be without him.
The Jets have their own problems with their star Corner Back Darrelle Revis. Last year Revis made headlines as the leagues premier shut down Corner by holding big names such as Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Steve Smith and Andre Johnson to sub-par games (by their standards). "Revis Island" became a place no Wide Receiver wanted to take a vacation to. Revis is set to make only $1 Million this season, which in his mind is ridiculous for a player of his caliber, considering the value he brings to the team in helping give the Jet's the leagues best defense. Revis wants to become the leagues highest paid Corner Back. He turned down a generous 10 year, $100 Million offer that would have given him the largest contract of anyone at his position. His reasoning was because the per year salary did not come close to the 3 year, $45.3 Million deal Oakland gave to Nnamdi Asomugha. If you can't live off $100 Million for the rest of your life then something is wrong. In this case it's not a situation where Revis is concerned about not being able to afford the luxuries he desires, it's the principal of the thing. He believes he is the leagues best player at his position, so he wants to have the highest salary amongst players at his position.
Here's the flaw in that logic though, and where the owners have a legitimate gripe. Just because Oakland's owner (crypt keeper look-a-like Al Davis) was dumb enough to overpay Asomugha, doesn't mean the Jet's need to be equally irresponsible with their spending. Sure, those players are very talented and vital to their team's success (ok, so even with Asomugha, the Raidors don't have much success), but that doesn't mean a team has to break the bank to sign them. There's still a little thing called the Salary Cap that prevents them from spending freely. Signing one player to that much money limits the available resources to pay other players, which means keeping that one player may mean letting two or three other players go, creating more holes. Teams are faced with the tough choice of determining if keeping their star is worth weakening the team in other areas. It's not about the owner thinking the player isn't worth it, it's that they can't afford to pay them that much without taking away from other players on the team. It's not like in MLB where some owners refuse to give out big salaries so that they can end up pocketing more money (wait, you're saying that's why the Pirates and Royals have been terrible for so long?!). Sometimes players seem to forget that and their greed leads to them thinking that teams should give them the salaries they want, regardless of the consequences to the rest of the team.
Granted this year things are a little different, due to the upcoming CBA negotiations resulting in this year being an un-capped year. Teams are technically allowed to spend as much as they want this year, but most teams are cautious about giving out long term contracts because they assume the cap will be back in effect next year and the uncertainty of what that cap level will look like makes them hesitant to potentially burden themselves down the line by giving out too many big contracts. The Jets are one team that seems willing to take some risks by going all in this season, knowing they may have to pay for it later, but so far they haven't extended that to the outrageous contract Revis has demanded.
Sometimes Hold Outs are seen in different variations. Brett Favre has mastered the "Retirement Hold Out" as a way to dodge the exhausting effort of training camp. The 40 year old QB announced that he was contemplating retirement for the 3rd straight offseason, yet everyone knew that wasn't really the case. To the shock of nobody, Favre returned to the Vikings by the 2nd week of the pre-season. He even managed to get them to pay him an extra $2 million on top of the contract he already had in place for this season as a little incentive to return. Favre was never going to retire (in fact, he actually may never retire), he was just holding out so that he didn't have to show up to training camp, could bask in some extra media attention (he was secretly pissed that LeBron James stole so many headlines this summer) and have the Vikings throw a little extra money his way. A plan that the veteran played to perfection. The Vikings had no choice but to play along and allow themselves to be held hostage by Favre's flip flopping decision making. When the alternative is to turn over a team with championship aspirations to Tavarious Jackson, you can understand why they were willing to put up with the Favre drama.
The situation in San Diego is another interesting twist on Hold Outs. Vincent Jackson was amongst the leagues top receivers last season. He's the type of big, fast and physical receiver that most teams covet. Not surprisingly, Jackson wants more money, but the Chargers have no interest in giving him more. For one thing, Jackson is suspended for the first 4 weeks of the regular season for violating league policy. Why should he get a raise if he's missing 25% of the season? Rumor has it that the other reason is that the Chargers don't see Jackson in their long term plans anyway, so they have no desire to give him the extension he wants. Yes, he is underpaid for the production he provides while on the field, but the Chargers think they have the depth at WR to run their offense effectively without him. As far as they are concerned, he needs them more than they need him. In this scenario, a trade seems likely. It's possible Jackson may not play at all this season unless he is traded. The problem is that most teams know the position the Chargers are in and may try to acquire him at a discount price, so long as they are willing to put up the money to keep Jackson happy. So not only are their trade partners limited to teams that can afford such an extension, but they may be selling low on a Pro Bowl caliber talent.
I can see the arguments players are making to support their side. Football is a physical game, where the next play could potentially be their last. There is also only a limited window where they are at their peak and can demand a high contract. Most people retire at around 65 years old, but the career of a football player is usually over in their mid-30's, or earlier. They need to make as much money as they can in a limited window of years. Of course these star players that are holding out are already getting multi-million dollar contracts, so even if they don't get the pay raise they asked for they should still have more money to live on for the rest of their lives than what the average person will make in several lifetimes worth of working a full time job. The defense that these players can't provide for their family and feed their kids on "only" $1 million per year is insane, but that's not really what it's about for them. Part of it has to do with respect. If you're good at your job you believe you should be compensated appropriately for it, especially in regards to your peers that contribute at a similar level. It would be no different for you at your job.
So if both sides make a fair argument then how do we settle these differences? The answer isn't about picking a side, it's about changing the flawed system that allowed this situation to occur in the first place. You don't see stars holding out and refusing to play in the NBA. Well, maybe Ricky Rubio, who was drafted by Minnesota but has thus far stayed in Europe to avoid playing for them, but that's a different story. You can't blame a guy for not wanting to play in a frozen tundra city for a dysfunctional Timberwolves team that is already loaded with a bunch of mediocre players that happen to play the same position that he does (KHAAAAN!!!). Like I said, totally different situation. The major difference between the NFL and other pro sports that has allowed Hold Outs to become an issue is the problem of having non-guaranteed contracts.
The owners don't want to give guaranteed contracts because it gives them an escape clause if a player becomes a bust or has a career ending injury. It's safer for them to hand out these big checks if they have the assurance that if it doesn't work out they can tear up the contract, cut their losses by only paying a portion of what the agreed on, and move on. The problem is that this lack of security is a problem for the players, and they've found a loop hole to turn it around against the owners by holding out. The players know their owners have the power to tear up an existing contract and replace it with a better one. You can't do that in other sports unless it involves an extension, which never happens unless the player is in the last year of the existing contract. In football, the player could be several years away from free agency but decide they want more money, so they Hold Out in an attempt to get it. If contracts were guaranteed then they would not have that kind of leverage. They would be more secure in knowing that they won't get cut without being paid the majority of their contract, but they also would be held to that contract without the ability to Hold Out.
Owners would have a hard time agreeing to this, but considering many of these large contracts are heavily front loaded and include large roster bonuses that are guaranteed, the benefits far outweigh their reasons for keeping the current system. To compromise, the new CBA could include a lower salary cap. Players could agree to take less for their contracts in exchange for getting the security of a guaranteed contract. That seems fair to both sides. What the owners need to realize is that when their star players Holds Out, he's not just Holding Out on them and the team, they are Holding out on the fans as well. If they aren't back on the field during the season then fans are deprived of getting to see them play. It also weakens the team, which could result in less wins and make championship dreams more of a long shot. Fans are the ones stuffing the owners wallets, so if they aren't happy then the owners suffer in the long run anyway.
We can only hope that during the next CBA negotiations they are able to compromise on a new system that prevents Hold Outs from being an annual issue. Even in cases where the issue eventually gets resolved, nobody really wins. Owners often have to overpay a player to keep them happy and get them back on the field. If a player misses time he may be losing money for each practice or game they miss, and the practice time they miss could impact their ability to catch up and contribute when they do return, which further hurts them and the team. Most importantly, the fans are the ones that lose. They are the ones that miss out on seeing their beloved stars on game day. What these players need to realize is that they aren't just effecting the owners and the teams with their Hold Outs, they are effecting their fans as well. They are Holding Out on all of us.
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Fantasy Football Preview
I've been playing fantasy football for nearly a decade, so along the way I've picked up a fair amount of knowledge about the game. Not long ago, being in a fantasy sports league was considered something that dorks get together to do in their mother's basement. That's no longer the case, in part because now the Internet calculates the stats for you, so you don't need to be a math nerd to play. Fantasy sports have exploded into mainstream society, being covered by journalists, bloggers, and TV analysts, to name a few. It's no longer uncommon for a group of guys to discuss the performance of their fantasy teams in much the same way that they would discuss their favorite "real life" teams.
There are several draws to fantasy sports. Competition is a big reason. Even if you aren't betting any money in your league (which of course you aren't, because... you know... that would be wrong), there can still be friendly competition amongst friends. There's no greater joy in the game than bragging to one of your buddies about how you crushed their team the previous week. A little trash talking spices up the competitive nature of the game. Just don't get too carried away with it, no need to make it personal.
A less obvious draw to the fantasy game, but one that has become a personal favorite reason for playing, is that it creates more interest in watching games. Everyone has their favorite sports team that they root for, and also teams they like to root against (J-E-T-S!), but what happens when the only televised game in your area doesn't involve one of those teams? Sure the Vikings and Packers looks like it should be a good game, so as a football fan it would be interesting to watch. But as a Patriots fan, do you really care who wins? Probably not, but if you have Adrian Peterson or Aaron Rogers on your fantasy team then you at least care how they perform. It makes you become more invested in the outcome of the game, which makes things more exciting. Imagine trailing by 10 points in your weekly match-up heading into the Monday night game and you still have one of your Running Backs starting in that game. Wouldn't you be on the edge of your seat all game, watching points pile up with each yard as you slowly close the gap? That was rhetorical, of course you would, and if you wouldn't then you're not a fan of football, competition or fun in general.
Another benefit to fantasy sports is that it makes you more knowledgeable about players and teams around the league. The Texans have never been good, never even been to the playoffs, so unless your from Texas then would you even know who Matt Schaub is? If you play fantasy sports you do, because he's arguably one of the top 5 QBs in the league. He may never win a Super Bowl, but he could help you win your fantasy league title.
So we've established the many reasons why you should join a fantasy league. Now you just need to know how to win one. Of course there is no fool proof formula for this (if there was, and everyone followed it, then would everyone win?). If we could predict how everything would turn out now then it would take the fun out of it. As they say, that's why they play the games. There will always be new break out stars and old stars that break our hearts. Injuries can wreck a team that looks good on paper, and sometimes it just comes down to dumb luck. There are a lot of factors that play out through the 17 week season, so the team you draft that looked so dominant on paper to start the season likely won't be exactly the same as the team you finish with (unless you're one of those jerks that stopped paying attention after week 4).
Still, it all starts with the draft. It's been said that you can't win a league with your draft, but you can lose it. I'm not sure who first said it, but he seems like he must have been a pretty smart guy. So being prepared on draft day is key to getting off to a good start. The game has evolved in recent years to become more pass oriented. Teams like the Patriots, Colts and Saints have put up historic passing numbers and really changed the game from previous eras that saw many teams pounding the ball with a workhorse Running Back. This has to factor in to your draft strategy, as the old rule of thumb that said that you "have to" get at least one, preferably two, stud RBs with your first two picks in the draft no longer applies. Depending on where you pick in the first round, this not only may not be the best idea, but may not even be possible.
Many teams have gone with a Running Back by committee approach, rather than having a starter that handles the ball 20+ times per game. We once condemned coach Mike "Lucifer" Shannahan for doing this, but now more than half the teams in the league do it. There are really only 4 RBs that you can feel comfortable about taking in the first round: Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice. After that there is a tier just below them that could also join the category of elite if they stay healthy, but they come with a lot of risk for a 1st round pick (Stephen Jackson, Frank Gore, Michael Turner). All of those guys will likely go in the first round, but in a standard 10 team league that would mean that teams drafting at the end of the round may not have a shot at any of them. So they are forced to make a tough choice - either reach for a RB that isn't really good enough to have been drafted with your first pick (Rashard Mendenhall, Shonn Greene, Ryan Grant) or go another route and pick an elite WR or QB. A few years ago you'd likely have been laughed at for taking a non-RB in the first around, with the exception of maybe Payton Manning, but many would still not have advised him as a first rounder. After all, you don't get points for the number of commercials you are in or the number of boogers you flick. The game has changed, so our strategy must change with it.
There are less RBs considered to be a lock, but the committees that most teams employ open up more mid-tier RBs that can be found later in drafts. This allows you to experiment more with different combinations in the early rounds rather than the old RB-RB combo to start out with. It's not inconceivable to go WR-WR or WR-QB to start out with. You'll get elite talent at those positions while still being able to fill in your RB spots with some decent talent in rounds 3-5 (Jonathan Stewart, Beanie Wells, LeSean McCoy), plus any potential diamonds in the rough that you may be lucky enough to land later (Justin Forsett, Ahmad Bradshaw, Donald Brown).
Drafting at the end of the first round gives you lots of options to pick from (especially since in a snake draft you'd be drafting early in the 2nd round). This year would be tough to pick in the middle of the round though. Picking 6th for example seems like it'd be too early to go for a QB or WR, so you may get stuck with Jackson because he's too talented to pass up at that point, but also comes with some risk due to age/injury concerns.
Now to settle the debate of what happens if you end up with the first overall pick. Depending on your league format and rules, this could change. For example, in a PPR league (points per reception) you could make the argument that Ray Rice should go first since he led all RBs in receptions last year with 78. In a Keeper League you may use a different strategy, especially if it's continuing an existing league where the top players have already been kept. For the purposes of this debate, we'll assume it's a standard league. So in this case, the number one pick comes down to two choices - Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson.
The popular pick in most leagues will be Johnson, who led all players in points last year while rushing for just over 2,000 yards on 358 carries, while adding 14 TDs. Meanwhile, Peterson rushed for 1,383 yards on 314 carries and 18 TDs. Still a solid season, just not as spectacular as the numbers Johnson put up. That doesn't necessarily mean that either will put up similar numbers this year though. Not many RBs have rushed for 2,000 yards in a season, but the one thing that all the others that did it before Johnson have in common is that none of them came close to doing it again the following year. RB is a position that takes a physical toll on a player, more so than other positions, because they are getting hit hard almost every time they touch the ball. Granted CJ had a fair amount of runs where his blazing speed burned defenders so that he was never touched on the play, but that was hardly the norm. 358 is a lot of carries, and even if he is able to perform as well as last year, he's unlikely to be relied upon to carry it that many times again.
On the other hand, Adrian Peterson has more of a track record, having been amongst the elite RBs in each of his 3 years in the league. He was last year's no-brainer first overall pick this time last year, and while his stats dipped slightly you can blame some of that on the change in offensive philosophy that came with the addition of Brett Favre. Even if Favre does return this season (he's already changed his mind 3 times since you started reading this article) it's unlikely that at his age and recovering from an ankle injury that he'll be able to play as well as he did last year, when he posted one of the best seasons of his Hall of Fame career. The effectiveness of the passing game limited the opportunities for AP to get the ball, which helps explain the 50 carry differential between AP and CJ. Expect CJ's carries to decrease while AP's could go up. That will help bring their yardage total closer together. CJ also can't be expected to break as many long TD runs, so his TD total could go down, whereas AP will continue to get more goal line carry TDs. You can make a fair case for either guy to go number one overall, but personally I would take All Day first any day.
Wide Receiver generally has a lot of depth, but while some leagues only require you to start 2 WRs each week, some leagues require 3 or 4 (possibly more if you use a flex WR/RB slot). You will likely end up with more WRs of your roster than any other position, which makes it all the more important to try to get one of the elite guys: Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Calvin Johnson, or Larry Fizgerald. You can take the top 15-20 guys and consider yourself satisfied to own any of them, but considering the need to start multiple WRs there may be teams that try to get 2 or 3 of the top guys, which means the depth runs out quicker than you'd expect. Wait too long and you'll be stuck without any of the top guys at the position. It's generally good to get 1 or 2 of the top 10-15 guys, get another 1 or 2 from the middle rounds (Hakeem Nicks, Michael Crabtree, Mike Wallace) and then hope to strike gold in the later rounds with some high upside sleeper picks. Sometimes the biggest breakout guys are the ones nobody talked about or expected, but maybe you could get lucky and draft this year's Miles Austin. Just don't count on that, so make sure to draft some studs within the first 4 or 5 rounds.
Fantasy leagues, or even drafts, aren't won in the first couple of rounds. While a first round bust can derail a team, the middle rounds are important too. Sure, you can take some flyers in the late rounds hoping to strike gold, because you can always drop those guys if you find the next break out star available on the waiver wire. But a guy that you took earlier in the draft is harder to part with. Part of the problem many owners have isn't due to a guy having a let down season or because they got injured, but often times it's because they overvalued not just the player, but the position. This leads us to perhaps the #1 rule in Fantasy Football.
Never draft a Kicker before the last round!!!
Just don't do it. Ever. Know why? Because you can't predict who the best Kicker is going to be. Often times the best Kickers aren't even drafted that year. Because Kicker points are about opportunity, which is impossible to predict. A team with a high scoring offense may get you lots of extra points (1 point) but not many FGs (which can be worth between 3-5 points in a standard league). Some kickers are better at hitting long range FGs, and some are more accurate than others, but that doesn't mean they will make the most because they may not attempt the most. The difference between the best Kicker last year and the 10th best Kicker was a measly 32 points, which amounts to 2 points per week. That's it. And I certainly wouldn't bet money on Nate Kaeding finishing 1st again this year.
It's generally a good idea to wait until near the end to pick a Defense as well. Some owners will reach for the top defenses (NYJ, SF, PHI), but generally it's better to wait until the last few rounds to take a Defense. I'd typically prefer to wait until the 2nd or 3rd to last round. The top Defenses in reality don't always make the best Defenses in fantasy sports. It's harder to predict from season to season which teams D will finish in the top 10, so unless you're confident that you can get one of the few elite teams then you're better off waiting.
Tight End used to be a position you would be willing to reach for an elite guy because after the top few guys the drop off was a pretty large gap. That's no longer the case, as the position is now uncharacteristically deep. If you don't want to waste a 3rd round pick on Antonio Gates or Dallas Clark then you can wait a few rounds to get JerMichael Finley or Vishante Shiancoe. Even if you end up with the 10th best TE, you'll still have a player that can contribute fairly consistently. There are also guys in the later rounds that you can get that could end up being a steal, like John Carlson or rookie Jermaine Gresham. By filling the position in the middle rounds instead of in round 3 or 4 you avoid passing up on adding some quality depth at WR or RB, or have to wait longer to get a QB if you haven't done so already.
Speaking of QB, this is another position with a lot of depth. In a standard league in which you can only start 1 QB you will likely end up starting the same guy every week (except his Bye week). There are 8 QBs that are considered safe bets to start every week. Three of those guys (Rogers, Brees, Manning) are at the top and may require a 1st or 2nd round pick. If you don't want to pick a QB that early then you should be pretty well off with Brady, Romo, Schaub, Favre, or Rivers. It's doubtful that anyone would pick 2 of those guys if they can only start 1 (they shouldn't at least), which means in a 10 team league, all but two teams will have one of these guys and be pretty happy about it. The remaining teams will still have options, such as Cutler, Kolb and Flacco. They would make a great option as a back-up QB, but for those teams that don't get a top guy they can rotate between guys at that level or hope one of them has a break-out season while being satisfied knowing that while other teams were using earlier picks on QBs they were (hopefully) gaining an advantage at other positions.
A valuable key to having a good fantasy draft is identifying "Sleepers." This term refers to guys that haven't reached the elite level, but stand a good chance to have a breakout season. They are more risky, but because of this they can often be selected later in drafts because more casual owners may not have heard of them or may be overly cautious due to the player's lack of a track record. The benefit of these Sleeper picks is that they give you the best return on investment. Anyone can figure out that they should take Adrian Peterson in the first round, but if you were clever enough to get Ray Rice several rounds later then you'd have gotten a much better ROI for a player that finished 4th amongst RBs last year.
On the other hand, you have to beware of a player that has been over-hyped as a sleeper. If too many people are predicting that a guy will break out then his draft value may get overinflated. If he does indeed breakout then you'll end up with the type of player you should have expected to get with that high pick, but the ROI isn't as great. If the player doesn't live up to the hype then you've wasted an early pick. A true sleeper is someone that ends up being a bargain.
With that in mind, here are a few top choices for sleepers. Keep in mind that these aren't all players I'm suggesting you draft early, but they are low risk/high reward players that you can target towards the end of the draft.
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford - he struggled last year with injuries and typical rookie inconsistencies, but with a year under his belt he should improve. The Lions defense is still terrible, which could lead to many shoot outs where they will be forced to throw to catch up. They've added some weapons around him, and if Calvin Johnson can stay healthy then the former top overall pick will have some good targets to throw to.
Chad Henne - he finished strong at the end of last season and now has a legit WR threat to throw to in Brandon Marshall. Considering the options he had last year (Ginn, Jr?), this is a huge upgrade.
Ben Rothlisberger - Big Ben could possible go undrafted in some leagues due to the fact that he'll be suspended for the first 4-6 weeks of the season due to certain off field issues involving a college girl in a restroom at a bar. If not for that then he could have been considered a possible top 5 QB, so when he does come back there's no reason to think he won't at least be around the top 10 for the rest of the season. You don't have to like the big goon to benefit from the points he'll put up. Draft him as a backup, especially if you don't get an elite QB as your starter.
Running Back
Jamaal Charles - he may go in the 2nd or 3rd round, but he could have 1st round value. Over the last 8 weeks of last season he was the 2nd best RB in the game, only behind Chris Johnson. He will slip in some drafts because of people concerned about the addition of Thomas Jones, but Charles is still the guy in KC and could be in for a big season.
Justin Forsett - the Seattle backfield is a mess, but Forsett is clearly the most talented guy there. Eventually their coaching staff has to realize this and give him a healthy dose of touches. He'll likely be drafted as a backup, but could provide value as a RB2.
Donald Brown - he's in a high powered offense that scores a lot. Indy would not have used an early round pick on him if they didn't intend to transition the role to him at some point. Joseph Addai is still their starter, and should be drafted earlier, but he's much more likely to be a bust while Brown is the better value.
Wide Receiver
Johnny Knox - Mike Martz brings his circus offense to Chicago, which means that Jay Cutler can expect to throw even more Interceptions (is that possible??) but also put up big passing yardage numbers. Someone needs to be on the receiving end of that, and the speedy Knox could be the biggest beneficiary.
Jacoby Jones - He's a big, fast, physical receiver, not unlike teammate Andre Johnson. He didn't do much last year, but he did a lot with what he did do, averaging over 16 yards per catch. Expect him to get a lot more than the 27 catches that he got last season.
Malcolm Floyd - last year's top target, Vincent Jackson, is suspended to start the season and could potentially hold out the entire season over a contract dispute. His loss is Floyd's gain, as he now becomes the top WR. The Bolts like to throw, especially since they now have a rookie RB as their starter, and Floyd can make big plays (over 17 yds/catch last season).
Wes Welker - he's a beast in PPR leagues and in standard leagues still finished just outside the top 10 for receivers last year. A scary knee injury that kept him out of most of the season finale and postseason will make some owners shy away from him. He's yet to play in a pre-season game, but did participate in training camp and could possibly be ready to play in Week 1. Many leagues have Welker buried in their rankings if they haven't updated them since earlier in the pre-season when Welker was expected to miss the first 6 weeks with the injury. Now that he's expected back much sooner than that he should be bumped up your rankings, and may get overlooked by people that aren't thinking about him.
There are so many other aspects to a successful fantasy season that it's impossible to cover them all, but these tips are at least a good start to prepare you for draft day. The nice thing about fantasy football is that since teams only play once per week it's a lot easier to keep up with than other sports because you can probably get away with only checking your team a couple times a week and still stay competitive. That means you don't have to obsessively look over your team to find ways to improve via trade or the waiver wire on a daily basis (guilty!), so more casual fans can join in and get crushed... ummm... I mean enjoy it.
That's what it's really all about, is having fun. Yes, it's competitive and there's trash talking, but it's all in good fun. If you keep that in mind then you'll be able to expand your knowledge about different players and teams around the league while having a great time beating your friends. No football fan can resist that. Unless your Brett Favre, in which case you go back and forth debating if you want to join the league or not. Oh wait, he's in. So draft him.
There are several draws to fantasy sports. Competition is a big reason. Even if you aren't betting any money in your league (which of course you aren't, because... you know... that would be wrong), there can still be friendly competition amongst friends. There's no greater joy in the game than bragging to one of your buddies about how you crushed their team the previous week. A little trash talking spices up the competitive nature of the game. Just don't get too carried away with it, no need to make it personal.
A less obvious draw to the fantasy game, but one that has become a personal favorite reason for playing, is that it creates more interest in watching games. Everyone has their favorite sports team that they root for, and also teams they like to root against (J-E-T-S!), but what happens when the only televised game in your area doesn't involve one of those teams? Sure the Vikings and Packers looks like it should be a good game, so as a football fan it would be interesting to watch. But as a Patriots fan, do you really care who wins? Probably not, but if you have Adrian Peterson or Aaron Rogers on your fantasy team then you at least care how they perform. It makes you become more invested in the outcome of the game, which makes things more exciting. Imagine trailing by 10 points in your weekly match-up heading into the Monday night game and you still have one of your Running Backs starting in that game. Wouldn't you be on the edge of your seat all game, watching points pile up with each yard as you slowly close the gap? That was rhetorical, of course you would, and if you wouldn't then you're not a fan of football, competition or fun in general.
Another benefit to fantasy sports is that it makes you more knowledgeable about players and teams around the league. The Texans have never been good, never even been to the playoffs, so unless your from Texas then would you even know who Matt Schaub is? If you play fantasy sports you do, because he's arguably one of the top 5 QBs in the league. He may never win a Super Bowl, but he could help you win your fantasy league title.
So we've established the many reasons why you should join a fantasy league. Now you just need to know how to win one. Of course there is no fool proof formula for this (if there was, and everyone followed it, then would everyone win?). If we could predict how everything would turn out now then it would take the fun out of it. As they say, that's why they play the games. There will always be new break out stars and old stars that break our hearts. Injuries can wreck a team that looks good on paper, and sometimes it just comes down to dumb luck. There are a lot of factors that play out through the 17 week season, so the team you draft that looked so dominant on paper to start the season likely won't be exactly the same as the team you finish with (unless you're one of those jerks that stopped paying attention after week 4).
Still, it all starts with the draft. It's been said that you can't win a league with your draft, but you can lose it. I'm not sure who first said it, but he seems like he must have been a pretty smart guy. So being prepared on draft day is key to getting off to a good start. The game has evolved in recent years to become more pass oriented. Teams like the Patriots, Colts and Saints have put up historic passing numbers and really changed the game from previous eras that saw many teams pounding the ball with a workhorse Running Back. This has to factor in to your draft strategy, as the old rule of thumb that said that you "have to" get at least one, preferably two, stud RBs with your first two picks in the draft no longer applies. Depending on where you pick in the first round, this not only may not be the best idea, but may not even be possible.
Many teams have gone with a Running Back by committee approach, rather than having a starter that handles the ball 20+ times per game. We once condemned coach Mike "Lucifer" Shannahan for doing this, but now more than half the teams in the league do it. There are really only 4 RBs that you can feel comfortable about taking in the first round: Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice. After that there is a tier just below them that could also join the category of elite if they stay healthy, but they come with a lot of risk for a 1st round pick (Stephen Jackson, Frank Gore, Michael Turner). All of those guys will likely go in the first round, but in a standard 10 team league that would mean that teams drafting at the end of the round may not have a shot at any of them. So they are forced to make a tough choice - either reach for a RB that isn't really good enough to have been drafted with your first pick (Rashard Mendenhall, Shonn Greene, Ryan Grant) or go another route and pick an elite WR or QB. A few years ago you'd likely have been laughed at for taking a non-RB in the first around, with the exception of maybe Payton Manning, but many would still not have advised him as a first rounder. After all, you don't get points for the number of commercials you are in or the number of boogers you flick. The game has changed, so our strategy must change with it.
There are less RBs considered to be a lock, but the committees that most teams employ open up more mid-tier RBs that can be found later in drafts. This allows you to experiment more with different combinations in the early rounds rather than the old RB-RB combo to start out with. It's not inconceivable to go WR-WR or WR-QB to start out with. You'll get elite talent at those positions while still being able to fill in your RB spots with some decent talent in rounds 3-5 (Jonathan Stewart, Beanie Wells, LeSean McCoy), plus any potential diamonds in the rough that you may be lucky enough to land later (Justin Forsett, Ahmad Bradshaw, Donald Brown).
Drafting at the end of the first round gives you lots of options to pick from (especially since in a snake draft you'd be drafting early in the 2nd round). This year would be tough to pick in the middle of the round though. Picking 6th for example seems like it'd be too early to go for a QB or WR, so you may get stuck with Jackson because he's too talented to pass up at that point, but also comes with some risk due to age/injury concerns.
Now to settle the debate of what happens if you end up with the first overall pick. Depending on your league format and rules, this could change. For example, in a PPR league (points per reception) you could make the argument that Ray Rice should go first since he led all RBs in receptions last year with 78. In a Keeper League you may use a different strategy, especially if it's continuing an existing league where the top players have already been kept. For the purposes of this debate, we'll assume it's a standard league. So in this case, the number one pick comes down to two choices - Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson.
The popular pick in most leagues will be Johnson, who led all players in points last year while rushing for just over 2,000 yards on 358 carries, while adding 14 TDs. Meanwhile, Peterson rushed for 1,383 yards on 314 carries and 18 TDs. Still a solid season, just not as spectacular as the numbers Johnson put up. That doesn't necessarily mean that either will put up similar numbers this year though. Not many RBs have rushed for 2,000 yards in a season, but the one thing that all the others that did it before Johnson have in common is that none of them came close to doing it again the following year. RB is a position that takes a physical toll on a player, more so than other positions, because they are getting hit hard almost every time they touch the ball. Granted CJ had a fair amount of runs where his blazing speed burned defenders so that he was never touched on the play, but that was hardly the norm. 358 is a lot of carries, and even if he is able to perform as well as last year, he's unlikely to be relied upon to carry it that many times again.
On the other hand, Adrian Peterson has more of a track record, having been amongst the elite RBs in each of his 3 years in the league. He was last year's no-brainer first overall pick this time last year, and while his stats dipped slightly you can blame some of that on the change in offensive philosophy that came with the addition of Brett Favre. Even if Favre does return this season (he's already changed his mind 3 times since you started reading this article) it's unlikely that at his age and recovering from an ankle injury that he'll be able to play as well as he did last year, when he posted one of the best seasons of his Hall of Fame career. The effectiveness of the passing game limited the opportunities for AP to get the ball, which helps explain the 50 carry differential between AP and CJ. Expect CJ's carries to decrease while AP's could go up. That will help bring their yardage total closer together. CJ also can't be expected to break as many long TD runs, so his TD total could go down, whereas AP will continue to get more goal line carry TDs. You can make a fair case for either guy to go number one overall, but personally I would take All Day first any day.
Wide Receiver generally has a lot of depth, but while some leagues only require you to start 2 WRs each week, some leagues require 3 or 4 (possibly more if you use a flex WR/RB slot). You will likely end up with more WRs of your roster than any other position, which makes it all the more important to try to get one of the elite guys: Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Calvin Johnson, or Larry Fizgerald. You can take the top 15-20 guys and consider yourself satisfied to own any of them, but considering the need to start multiple WRs there may be teams that try to get 2 or 3 of the top guys, which means the depth runs out quicker than you'd expect. Wait too long and you'll be stuck without any of the top guys at the position. It's generally good to get 1 or 2 of the top 10-15 guys, get another 1 or 2 from the middle rounds (Hakeem Nicks, Michael Crabtree, Mike Wallace) and then hope to strike gold in the later rounds with some high upside sleeper picks. Sometimes the biggest breakout guys are the ones nobody talked about or expected, but maybe you could get lucky and draft this year's Miles Austin. Just don't count on that, so make sure to draft some studs within the first 4 or 5 rounds.
Fantasy leagues, or even drafts, aren't won in the first couple of rounds. While a first round bust can derail a team, the middle rounds are important too. Sure, you can take some flyers in the late rounds hoping to strike gold, because you can always drop those guys if you find the next break out star available on the waiver wire. But a guy that you took earlier in the draft is harder to part with. Part of the problem many owners have isn't due to a guy having a let down season or because they got injured, but often times it's because they overvalued not just the player, but the position. This leads us to perhaps the #1 rule in Fantasy Football.
Never draft a Kicker before the last round!!!
Just don't do it. Ever. Know why? Because you can't predict who the best Kicker is going to be. Often times the best Kickers aren't even drafted that year. Because Kicker points are about opportunity, which is impossible to predict. A team with a high scoring offense may get you lots of extra points (1 point) but not many FGs (which can be worth between 3-5 points in a standard league). Some kickers are better at hitting long range FGs, and some are more accurate than others, but that doesn't mean they will make the most because they may not attempt the most. The difference between the best Kicker last year and the 10th best Kicker was a measly 32 points, which amounts to 2 points per week. That's it. And I certainly wouldn't bet money on Nate Kaeding finishing 1st again this year.
It's generally a good idea to wait until near the end to pick a Defense as well. Some owners will reach for the top defenses (NYJ, SF, PHI), but generally it's better to wait until the last few rounds to take a Defense. I'd typically prefer to wait until the 2nd or 3rd to last round. The top Defenses in reality don't always make the best Defenses in fantasy sports. It's harder to predict from season to season which teams D will finish in the top 10, so unless you're confident that you can get one of the few elite teams then you're better off waiting.
Tight End used to be a position you would be willing to reach for an elite guy because after the top few guys the drop off was a pretty large gap. That's no longer the case, as the position is now uncharacteristically deep. If you don't want to waste a 3rd round pick on Antonio Gates or Dallas Clark then you can wait a few rounds to get JerMichael Finley or Vishante Shiancoe. Even if you end up with the 10th best TE, you'll still have a player that can contribute fairly consistently. There are also guys in the later rounds that you can get that could end up being a steal, like John Carlson or rookie Jermaine Gresham. By filling the position in the middle rounds instead of in round 3 or 4 you avoid passing up on adding some quality depth at WR or RB, or have to wait longer to get a QB if you haven't done so already.
Speaking of QB, this is another position with a lot of depth. In a standard league in which you can only start 1 QB you will likely end up starting the same guy every week (except his Bye week). There are 8 QBs that are considered safe bets to start every week. Three of those guys (Rogers, Brees, Manning) are at the top and may require a 1st or 2nd round pick. If you don't want to pick a QB that early then you should be pretty well off with Brady, Romo, Schaub, Favre, or Rivers. It's doubtful that anyone would pick 2 of those guys if they can only start 1 (they shouldn't at least), which means in a 10 team league, all but two teams will have one of these guys and be pretty happy about it. The remaining teams will still have options, such as Cutler, Kolb and Flacco. They would make a great option as a back-up QB, but for those teams that don't get a top guy they can rotate between guys at that level or hope one of them has a break-out season while being satisfied knowing that while other teams were using earlier picks on QBs they were (hopefully) gaining an advantage at other positions.
A valuable key to having a good fantasy draft is identifying "Sleepers." This term refers to guys that haven't reached the elite level, but stand a good chance to have a breakout season. They are more risky, but because of this they can often be selected later in drafts because more casual owners may not have heard of them or may be overly cautious due to the player's lack of a track record. The benefit of these Sleeper picks is that they give you the best return on investment. Anyone can figure out that they should take Adrian Peterson in the first round, but if you were clever enough to get Ray Rice several rounds later then you'd have gotten a much better ROI for a player that finished 4th amongst RBs last year.
On the other hand, you have to beware of a player that has been over-hyped as a sleeper. If too many people are predicting that a guy will break out then his draft value may get overinflated. If he does indeed breakout then you'll end up with the type of player you should have expected to get with that high pick, but the ROI isn't as great. If the player doesn't live up to the hype then you've wasted an early pick. A true sleeper is someone that ends up being a bargain.
With that in mind, here are a few top choices for sleepers. Keep in mind that these aren't all players I'm suggesting you draft early, but they are low risk/high reward players that you can target towards the end of the draft.
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford - he struggled last year with injuries and typical rookie inconsistencies, but with a year under his belt he should improve. The Lions defense is still terrible, which could lead to many shoot outs where they will be forced to throw to catch up. They've added some weapons around him, and if Calvin Johnson can stay healthy then the former top overall pick will have some good targets to throw to.
Chad Henne - he finished strong at the end of last season and now has a legit WR threat to throw to in Brandon Marshall. Considering the options he had last year (Ginn, Jr?), this is a huge upgrade.
Ben Rothlisberger - Big Ben could possible go undrafted in some leagues due to the fact that he'll be suspended for the first 4-6 weeks of the season due to certain off field issues involving a college girl in a restroom at a bar. If not for that then he could have been considered a possible top 5 QB, so when he does come back there's no reason to think he won't at least be around the top 10 for the rest of the season. You don't have to like the big goon to benefit from the points he'll put up. Draft him as a backup, especially if you don't get an elite QB as your starter.
Running Back
Jamaal Charles - he may go in the 2nd or 3rd round, but he could have 1st round value. Over the last 8 weeks of last season he was the 2nd best RB in the game, only behind Chris Johnson. He will slip in some drafts because of people concerned about the addition of Thomas Jones, but Charles is still the guy in KC and could be in for a big season.
Justin Forsett - the Seattle backfield is a mess, but Forsett is clearly the most talented guy there. Eventually their coaching staff has to realize this and give him a healthy dose of touches. He'll likely be drafted as a backup, but could provide value as a RB2.
Donald Brown - he's in a high powered offense that scores a lot. Indy would not have used an early round pick on him if they didn't intend to transition the role to him at some point. Joseph Addai is still their starter, and should be drafted earlier, but he's much more likely to be a bust while Brown is the better value.
Wide Receiver
Johnny Knox - Mike Martz brings his circus offense to Chicago, which means that Jay Cutler can expect to throw even more Interceptions (is that possible??) but also put up big passing yardage numbers. Someone needs to be on the receiving end of that, and the speedy Knox could be the biggest beneficiary.
Jacoby Jones - He's a big, fast, physical receiver, not unlike teammate Andre Johnson. He didn't do much last year, but he did a lot with what he did do, averaging over 16 yards per catch. Expect him to get a lot more than the 27 catches that he got last season.
Malcolm Floyd - last year's top target, Vincent Jackson, is suspended to start the season and could potentially hold out the entire season over a contract dispute. His loss is Floyd's gain, as he now becomes the top WR. The Bolts like to throw, especially since they now have a rookie RB as their starter, and Floyd can make big plays (over 17 yds/catch last season).
Wes Welker - he's a beast in PPR leagues and in standard leagues still finished just outside the top 10 for receivers last year. A scary knee injury that kept him out of most of the season finale and postseason will make some owners shy away from him. He's yet to play in a pre-season game, but did participate in training camp and could possibly be ready to play in Week 1. Many leagues have Welker buried in their rankings if they haven't updated them since earlier in the pre-season when Welker was expected to miss the first 6 weeks with the injury. Now that he's expected back much sooner than that he should be bumped up your rankings, and may get overlooked by people that aren't thinking about him.
There are so many other aspects to a successful fantasy season that it's impossible to cover them all, but these tips are at least a good start to prepare you for draft day. The nice thing about fantasy football is that since teams only play once per week it's a lot easier to keep up with than other sports because you can probably get away with only checking your team a couple times a week and still stay competitive. That means you don't have to obsessively look over your team to find ways to improve via trade or the waiver wire on a daily basis (guilty!), so more casual fans can join in and get crushed... ummm... I mean enjoy it.
That's what it's really all about, is having fun. Yes, it's competitive and there's trash talking, but it's all in good fun. If you keep that in mind then you'll be able to expand your knowledge about different players and teams around the league while having a great time beating your friends. No football fan can resist that. Unless your Brett Favre, in which case you go back and forth debating if you want to join the league or not. Oh wait, he's in. So draft him.
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Celtics Drop the Ball with Sheed
The speculation over Rasheed Wallace's future in Boston was finally resolved when the Celtics announced that they have waived the remaining 2 years of the contract he signed last offseason, signaling Wallace's intent to follow through on his plan to retire. It's not much of a surprise that Wallace is retiring, after having watched him struggle for most of this past season, but what is surprising is the Celtics inability to take advantage of a great opportunity to improve this team. Letting Wallace simply walk away for nothing is equivalent to some of the bricks 'Sheed clanked off the rim while hoisting up shots from behind the arc. Seems rather fitting actually.
When Wallace informed the Celtics he was considering walking away from the remaining 2 year, $13 million contract to retire, they were in a great position to use his contract to their advantage. He became their golden ticket. With so many teams in the league struggling financially, yet far from contending, this contract should have been in high demand. This is better than the expiring contracts that have shown in the past to be so valuable as trading chips. Wallace could be traded to a team that could then immediately clear $13 million off their books over the next two years once he officially retires. There are plenty of teams that would love the opportunity to cut that much cash to help get them under the salary cap to allow them to sign another free agent this year or next. Other teams would make the move just to help get them under the luxury tax.
The Celtics really need another wing player to bring off the bench and help limit the minutes for both Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. Tony Allen filled that role down the stretch last season, as the defensive stopper that could come in to guard either position. When he was stolen away by Memphis it left a void on the Celtics bench. Their current roster would need to rely on Marquis Daniels to fill that role, meaning he not only needs to stay healthy, but also remain as effective as he was at the beginning of last season, as opposed to the player who was nearly invisible after returning from a lengthy injury. Nate Robinson is an offensive spark plug that is capable of carrying the second unit with his scoring, but he's undersized and never been known for his defense. They also drafted Avery Bradley, who is projected to become a good defensive guard, but a veteran team with championship aspirations may not be able to rely much on a rookie. At 6'2'' he may also struggle to cover bigger guards and couldn't fill in for Pierce at the SF position. He's likely to be used as a back-up to Rajon Rondo at point guard.
Losing Allen is comparable to losing James Posey after the 2008 season. He's not a star, but he filled a valuable role that will not easily be replaced. As was the case after Posey retired, someone else will now need to step up in that role for the team to be successful.
The team spent most of their offseason loading up on big men to replace Wallace and the injured Kendrick Perkins, as well as to help with one some of their biggest weaknesses - rebounding and interior scoring. The addition of the O'Neals (Shaquille and Jermaine) will be a big boost for the team in that department and give them the most intimidating front court in the league, with plenty of depth once everyone is healthy. This will be vital when matching up against the likes of Orlando and the Lakers. The Finals last year showed us that we weren't able to match up against the big bodies of Gasol, Bynum and Odom, especially once Perkins got injured. If they can all remain healthy and contribute then we won't have to worry about being dominated on the boards or in the paint anymore.
Their lack of depth on the wings could come back to haunt them though, especially when matching up against a team like Miami that has LeBron James and Dwayne Wade. Boston currently doesn't have anyone that can truly be relied on from their bench to matchup with those guys, and their aging stars can't be expected to play as many minutes as their younger opponents. That's why Wallace's contract could have been used as an ace up our sleeves. He could have been used to acquire the type of player this team desperately needs.
The problem isn't just finding a willing trade partner, it's also about finding a player to receive in return that has a contract which comes close to matching Wallace's. Since the Celtics are over the salary cap (and their presumed trading partner would be as well) then neither team can take back a contract that is 125% plus $100,000 more than what they are giving away. Wallace's salary for this season is just north of $6.3 million, so the player they get in return would have to be close to that same figure (approximately less than $8 million at most).
There may not be a lot of options that fit that criteria, but here are a few reasonable options that would work under the salary cap rules. These are all teams that are boarderline playoff teams, at best, and are all over the salary cap and/or luxury tax.
Charlotte
Steven Jackson (3 yrs) for Rasheed Wallace, Avery Bradley and 2011 1st round pick
The Bobcats may be good enough to sneak into one of the bottom seeds in a top heavy Eastern Conference, but they are not a very good team, with few pieces to build on for their future. As they stand now, they seem destined to continue in this state of mediocrity - an early playoff exit, mediocre draft position and no salary cap room. Trading Jackson would likely put them back in the lottery where they could start to rebuild around a younger player. Bradley would also need to be included to help make the salaries match, but he's more than just a throw in, as the young guard shows a lot of potential and would be a good fit for a team that plays with a defensive mentality.
For Boston, they sacrifice a young player that they likely wouldn't be able to give many minutes to and get a proven veteran scorer capable of filling up the box score. He could be an explosive option off the bench and could be used to give Pierce or Allen a rest. The downside is that his contract runs for three more years, which doesn't fit in with the team's plan to rebuild in 2012 when KG and Ray's contracts expire, but Jackson could at least help keep Boston in the playoffs for an extra year after those guys are gone, or they can use his expiring contract as a trading chip as they start to rebuild around Rondo.
Philadelphia
Andres Nocioni (2 yrs) for Rasheed Wallace and 2011 1st round pick
The Sixers aren't going anywhere anytime soon and seem unlikely to be able to give away Elton Brand's albatross of a contract to free up cap space. Nocioni is expendable, as he does not seem to fit in their long term plans and only gets in the way of giving minutes to Evan Turner, their future star. This clears up a little bit of cap space for the next couple years and gives them an additional draft pick to help in their rebuilding efforts.
For Boston this works because Nocioni is a hard nosed hustle player that could bring some energy and defense to the second unit. They looked to acquire him in the middle of last year before Philly beat them to it as part of their move to dump Sam Dalembert's contract.
Houston
Shane Battier (1 yr) for Rasheed Wallace and 2011 1st round pick
This is probably the best option on the list for both teams. Houston is a fringe contender (even if Yao is healthy) and Battier is fairly expendable since they already have a lot of money tied to Trever Ariza, who plays the same position. There have been rumors that they have been trying to move him for salary relief. He's on an expiring contract, so they may just hang on to him and let him leave after this season, but acquiring Wallace's contract would allow them to cut that money off their payroll immediately, which is huge considering they are over the luxury tax. A draft pick can be thrown in to help entice this offer.
Boston would acquire a perfect replacement for Tony Allen. He's a great defender and team player that does a lot of the little things. He's a "glue guy" that would help solidify the bench. He isn't typically relied on to score much, but he's capable of making some outside shots.
New Orleans
David West (2yrs) for RasheedWallace, Glenn Davis and 2011 1st round pick
The Hornets would need to get permission from Chris Paul first, to ensure he doesn't riot after trading away his best running mate. As it is he already demanded a trade (he has since backed off that statement, but don't be fooled - he still wants out). If they do end up giving in and trading Paul then rebuilding becomes a must and West would have to go in that scenario as well. Even if Paul stays, if they can convince him to hang on for one more rebuilding year, then this move could help them get under the cap for next season, when they will also have Peja's contract coming off their books. Big Baby Davis would be a decent replacement for West, plus he's younger and a lot cheaper.
While he may not consistently put up the All-Star caliber numbers that he's shown in the past, West would still be an upgrade over Davis. He's overpaid, but his two year contract matches up with the team's financial timeline.
Dare to dream. All of those options would provide Boston an upgrade to their bench, and all are conceivable under the salary cap rules and given the other team's needs. Even if those deals aren't available now, who's to say they won't be available later in the offseason, or even in mid-season?
The only real benefit to waiving Wallace is that is saves money. Granted it's a lot of money, considering the team is in the luxury tax. This means that for every dollar they spend once they are over the luxury tax it costs the team double. However, this does nothing but put more money back in the owner's wallet. It does nothing to improve the team's chance to win. It does free up a roster spot, so the team can now sign one more player before the team will have the maximum number of players under contract, but that player will need to come at the veteran's minimum. There isn't much left on the free agent market, and it may not be easy to convince the options that are out there to play for the minimum. Even if they can, it's tough to get excited over someone like Larry Hughes, Michael Finley or Bobby Simmons. Making a trade instead would have let us acquire a better player that would add more value to the team.
It's possible that GM Danny Ainge did explore all of these options and was unable to find a willing trade partner. However, it seems like he gave up too early, or was too content with what they have. If they can't find the right veteran to bring in now then they may use that last roster spot on either Tony Gaffney or Oliver Lafayette, both of whom have non-guaranteed contracts. It's possible that the team will considering going that route, while waiting to see what veteran's become available in mid-season, either through trades or waiting for those veterans to be cut from their current teams. Maybe by then 'Sheed will have changed his mind and be willing to come out of retirement for a couple of months. Of course, if he did that then he wouldn't get to use the whole regular season to work himself into game shape, but with the depth we have in the frontcourt now, he also would no longer be counted on for over 20 minutes per game.
You never know what options may present themselves, even during the season. There will still be opportunities to improve this team before the playoffs. This team proved last year that the regular season doesn't mean much for them, as they are plenty capable of winning playoff games on the road and stepping up when the games really count. Yet I still can't help but feel that we let a golden opportunity slip through the cracks here. As 'Sheed was fond of saying, "Ball don't lie." Well the truth is, the Celtics dropped the ball on this one.
When Wallace informed the Celtics he was considering walking away from the remaining 2 year, $13 million contract to retire, they were in a great position to use his contract to their advantage. He became their golden ticket. With so many teams in the league struggling financially, yet far from contending, this contract should have been in high demand. This is better than the expiring contracts that have shown in the past to be so valuable as trading chips. Wallace could be traded to a team that could then immediately clear $13 million off their books over the next two years once he officially retires. There are plenty of teams that would love the opportunity to cut that much cash to help get them under the salary cap to allow them to sign another free agent this year or next. Other teams would make the move just to help get them under the luxury tax.
The Celtics really need another wing player to bring off the bench and help limit the minutes for both Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. Tony Allen filled that role down the stretch last season, as the defensive stopper that could come in to guard either position. When he was stolen away by Memphis it left a void on the Celtics bench. Their current roster would need to rely on Marquis Daniels to fill that role, meaning he not only needs to stay healthy, but also remain as effective as he was at the beginning of last season, as opposed to the player who was nearly invisible after returning from a lengthy injury. Nate Robinson is an offensive spark plug that is capable of carrying the second unit with his scoring, but he's undersized and never been known for his defense. They also drafted Avery Bradley, who is projected to become a good defensive guard, but a veteran team with championship aspirations may not be able to rely much on a rookie. At 6'2'' he may also struggle to cover bigger guards and couldn't fill in for Pierce at the SF position. He's likely to be used as a back-up to Rajon Rondo at point guard.
Losing Allen is comparable to losing James Posey after the 2008 season. He's not a star, but he filled a valuable role that will not easily be replaced. As was the case after Posey retired, someone else will now need to step up in that role for the team to be successful.
The team spent most of their offseason loading up on big men to replace Wallace and the injured Kendrick Perkins, as well as to help with one some of their biggest weaknesses - rebounding and interior scoring. The addition of the O'Neals (Shaquille and Jermaine) will be a big boost for the team in that department and give them the most intimidating front court in the league, with plenty of depth once everyone is healthy. This will be vital when matching up against the likes of Orlando and the Lakers. The Finals last year showed us that we weren't able to match up against the big bodies of Gasol, Bynum and Odom, especially once Perkins got injured. If they can all remain healthy and contribute then we won't have to worry about being dominated on the boards or in the paint anymore.
Their lack of depth on the wings could come back to haunt them though, especially when matching up against a team like Miami that has LeBron James and Dwayne Wade. Boston currently doesn't have anyone that can truly be relied on from their bench to matchup with those guys, and their aging stars can't be expected to play as many minutes as their younger opponents. That's why Wallace's contract could have been used as an ace up our sleeves. He could have been used to acquire the type of player this team desperately needs.
The problem isn't just finding a willing trade partner, it's also about finding a player to receive in return that has a contract which comes close to matching Wallace's. Since the Celtics are over the salary cap (and their presumed trading partner would be as well) then neither team can take back a contract that is 125% plus $100,000 more than what they are giving away. Wallace's salary for this season is just north of $6.3 million, so the player they get in return would have to be close to that same figure (approximately less than $8 million at most).
There may not be a lot of options that fit that criteria, but here are a few reasonable options that would work under the salary cap rules. These are all teams that are boarderline playoff teams, at best, and are all over the salary cap and/or luxury tax.
Charlotte
Steven Jackson (3 yrs) for Rasheed Wallace, Avery Bradley and 2011 1st round pick
The Bobcats may be good enough to sneak into one of the bottom seeds in a top heavy Eastern Conference, but they are not a very good team, with few pieces to build on for their future. As they stand now, they seem destined to continue in this state of mediocrity - an early playoff exit, mediocre draft position and no salary cap room. Trading Jackson would likely put them back in the lottery where they could start to rebuild around a younger player. Bradley would also need to be included to help make the salaries match, but he's more than just a throw in, as the young guard shows a lot of potential and would be a good fit for a team that plays with a defensive mentality.
For Boston, they sacrifice a young player that they likely wouldn't be able to give many minutes to and get a proven veteran scorer capable of filling up the box score. He could be an explosive option off the bench and could be used to give Pierce or Allen a rest. The downside is that his contract runs for three more years, which doesn't fit in with the team's plan to rebuild in 2012 when KG and Ray's contracts expire, but Jackson could at least help keep Boston in the playoffs for an extra year after those guys are gone, or they can use his expiring contract as a trading chip as they start to rebuild around Rondo.
Philadelphia
Andres Nocioni (2 yrs) for Rasheed Wallace and 2011 1st round pick
The Sixers aren't going anywhere anytime soon and seem unlikely to be able to give away Elton Brand's albatross of a contract to free up cap space. Nocioni is expendable, as he does not seem to fit in their long term plans and only gets in the way of giving minutes to Evan Turner, their future star. This clears up a little bit of cap space for the next couple years and gives them an additional draft pick to help in their rebuilding efforts.
For Boston this works because Nocioni is a hard nosed hustle player that could bring some energy and defense to the second unit. They looked to acquire him in the middle of last year before Philly beat them to it as part of their move to dump Sam Dalembert's contract.
Houston
Shane Battier (1 yr) for Rasheed Wallace and 2011 1st round pick
This is probably the best option on the list for both teams. Houston is a fringe contender (even if Yao is healthy) and Battier is fairly expendable since they already have a lot of money tied to Trever Ariza, who plays the same position. There have been rumors that they have been trying to move him for salary relief. He's on an expiring contract, so they may just hang on to him and let him leave after this season, but acquiring Wallace's contract would allow them to cut that money off their payroll immediately, which is huge considering they are over the luxury tax. A draft pick can be thrown in to help entice this offer.
Boston would acquire a perfect replacement for Tony Allen. He's a great defender and team player that does a lot of the little things. He's a "glue guy" that would help solidify the bench. He isn't typically relied on to score much, but he's capable of making some outside shots.
New Orleans
David West (2yrs) for RasheedWallace, Glenn Davis and 2011 1st round pick
The Hornets would need to get permission from Chris Paul first, to ensure he doesn't riot after trading away his best running mate. As it is he already demanded a trade (he has since backed off that statement, but don't be fooled - he still wants out). If they do end up giving in and trading Paul then rebuilding becomes a must and West would have to go in that scenario as well. Even if Paul stays, if they can convince him to hang on for one more rebuilding year, then this move could help them get under the cap for next season, when they will also have Peja's contract coming off their books. Big Baby Davis would be a decent replacement for West, plus he's younger and a lot cheaper.
While he may not consistently put up the All-Star caliber numbers that he's shown in the past, West would still be an upgrade over Davis. He's overpaid, but his two year contract matches up with the team's financial timeline.
Dare to dream. All of those options would provide Boston an upgrade to their bench, and all are conceivable under the salary cap rules and given the other team's needs. Even if those deals aren't available now, who's to say they won't be available later in the offseason, or even in mid-season?
The only real benefit to waiving Wallace is that is saves money. Granted it's a lot of money, considering the team is in the luxury tax. This means that for every dollar they spend once they are over the luxury tax it costs the team double. However, this does nothing but put more money back in the owner's wallet. It does nothing to improve the team's chance to win. It does free up a roster spot, so the team can now sign one more player before the team will have the maximum number of players under contract, but that player will need to come at the veteran's minimum. There isn't much left on the free agent market, and it may not be easy to convince the options that are out there to play for the minimum. Even if they can, it's tough to get excited over someone like Larry Hughes, Michael Finley or Bobby Simmons. Making a trade instead would have let us acquire a better player that would add more value to the team.
It's possible that GM Danny Ainge did explore all of these options and was unable to find a willing trade partner. However, it seems like he gave up too early, or was too content with what they have. If they can't find the right veteran to bring in now then they may use that last roster spot on either Tony Gaffney or Oliver Lafayette, both of whom have non-guaranteed contracts. It's possible that the team will considering going that route, while waiting to see what veteran's become available in mid-season, either through trades or waiting for those veterans to be cut from their current teams. Maybe by then 'Sheed will have changed his mind and be willing to come out of retirement for a couple of months. Of course, if he did that then he wouldn't get to use the whole regular season to work himself into game shape, but with the depth we have in the frontcourt now, he also would no longer be counted on for over 20 minutes per game.
You never know what options may present themselves, even during the season. There will still be opportunities to improve this team before the playoffs. This team proved last year that the regular season doesn't mean much for them, as they are plenty capable of winning playoff games on the road and stepping up when the games really count. Yet I still can't help but feel that we let a golden opportunity slip through the cracks here. As 'Sheed was fond of saying, "Ball don't lie." Well the truth is, the Celtics dropped the ball on this one.
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Shaq
This offseason has seen a lot of big name stars switch uniforms already, and now another name can be added to that list. Shaquille O'Neal has decided to join the Boston Celtics. Shaq joins a team that already boasts three future Hall of Famers and will begin this season as the defending Eastern Conference Champions. It's not hard to see why he was drawn to this situation, despite the fact that Boston is only able to offer the veteran's minimum of about $1.4 million (a steep drop from the $20 million he made last year). Boston gives him the best chance of joining a veteran team with a chance to win now, which makes it a good move for him as opposed to signing somewhere like Atlanta or Cleveland.
Whether it is a good move for Boston or not remains to be seen.
Shaq certainly comes with his share of baggage. He's been known to put his ego ahead of his teammates (ask Kobe) and is no stranger to conflict and controversy. It's no secret that he's burned bridges on his way out of Orlando, LA, Miami and Phoenix. He's perhaps the biggest personality in the NBA, joining a locker room that's already full of some big personalities. Doc Rivers will certainly have his hands full juggling all of them this season.
Shaq showed last season in Cleveland that he is capable of doing what nobody thought he could do - play second fiddle to another star. But that star happened to be Lebron James, the reigning MVP and arguably the best player on the planet. Not even Shaq's ego could have allowed him to think that he could take over and make the Cavs his team. He said and did all the right things to be a team player and let LeBron run the show. Can we expect to see the same in Boston? For all the talent in this lineup, there is no superstar the caliber of LeBron. The Celtics Big Three of Pierce, Allen and Garnett are all aging veteran's in a similar situation as Shaq. It's hard to believe that Shaq sees himself as anything less than being on their level, so how will he respond to being a role player off the bench? A cranky Shaq that feels like he's not involved enough can be a disruptive force.
There's also the obvious fact that Shaq is no longer the dominant force he once was. He's 38 years old and gaining weight by the minute. We had to listen to announcers last year claim what a boost Rasheed Wallace would be once he works his way back into game shape. How many games will Shaq need to play himself into shape?
The good thing for the Celtics is that they aren't expecting the player that has averaged 24 points and 11 rebounds per game in his career. They would be content with the 12 ppg and 6 rpg he contributed to Cleveland last year. At this point in his career it's not about the stats that he puts up, it's more about the intimidating presence he makes on the court.
With the injury to Kendrick Perkins that could keep him out for half the season, as well as the impending retirement of Rasheed Wallace, the Celtics found themselves in need of some big bodies. The problem was, they had no cap room to acquire them with. Jermaine O'Neal was a nice pick-up with their mid-level exception. At that price he becomes a low risk/high reward type of player that should be able to replace Sheed's production (and then some) if he's healthy. But he wouldn't be enough by himself.
Getting Shaq at a minimum contract was a move the Celtics had to make. He gives them a legitimate force in the paint to match up against opponents like Dwight Howard. Part of the reason the Celtics were unable to hold back the Lakers in last year's Finals was because of the size difference (especially after Perk got injured). The combination of Gasol, Bynum and Odom was just too much size and length for the Celtics to deal with, and they got killed on the boards because of it. Shaq will help even the odds and tip the scales a litte more in Boston's direction, so to speak. The other thing to keep in mind is that the Eastern Conference's new super power, the Miami Heat, lacks interior size. Boston's ability to run the O'Neal's and Perkins at them is an advantage they can look to exploit.
It's been many years since Shaq has been considered a dominant force on the defensive end. It's been 5 years since he had a season where he averaged over 2 blocks per game, and he continues to get killed on the pick and roll plays. His biggest attribute on defense will be his big body that he can use to push opponents away from the basket. Smaller guards often think twice before driving into the paint with him there, fearing a collision that would be like hitting a brick wall (ok, so these days it may feel like hitting a wall of jello, but still can't be fun). The Celtics are a great defensive team, so having guys like Rondo, Pierce and Garnett on the floor will help protect Shaq from getting exposed on defense when he's on the floor.
His role in the offense will be a mixed bag. The Celtics like to push the ball when they get rebounds to try to score in transition, with Rondo leading the charge at break-neck speeds. As we saw in Phoenix, Shaq just won't be able to keep up with this pace, even in limited minutes. Then again, Sheed wasn't ever one to hustle up the court either, and we at least won't have to worry about Shaq throwing up bricks from three point range, so there is an upgrade there. Shaq is more suited to do what Sheed should have done more of - park himself near the paint and score close to the basket. His size and ability to finish at the rim will be a huge asset for a team that often struggled when they were forced to work in a half court offense. Instead of watching Pierce try to go Iso, dribbling for a bit before jacking up a fallaway jumper, they will now have the option to throw it down low to a legitimate post presence. Jermaine O'Neal's offense game is on the decline, and the team struggled when it wasn't able to trust Perkins on offense last year. They now have a force that can score inside at will and draw fouls. Even if he can't make his free throws he can at least get teams into foul trouble if they try playing Hack-A-Shaq. Besides, it's not like Rondo makes his free throws either.
Health will once again be a major storyline for the Celtics this season. The Big Three have all had their injury issues, which are only more likely to become an issue as they continue to get older. Perkins of course is the major injury that they will have to deal with from the start, and the two O'Neals they got to help replace him have their own history of injuries. Shaq only played in 53 games last season, averaging just over 23 minutes per game. The team needs both O'Neals to stay healthy, at least until Perkins comes back, and could struggle if more than one of the three is out for an extended period of time.
Shaq has gotten picked on by fans and the media in recent years for being a shadow of his former self. That happens when you get old and start to slow down, and for a player of his caliber the drop off can be more drastic. However, he is still capable of contributing, and playing for a contender will help keep him motivated. What would have been the alternatives? If you think Shaq is a mistake, would you have gotten excited over Kwame Brown or Josh Boone? Without any cap room to work with, the options were limited. It should be looked at as a major coup that GM Danny Ainge was able to convince Shaq to come here for cheap. When the team is full healthy (knock on wood that this actually happens) he will become one of the big men in the rotation off the bench, along with Jermaine O'Neal and Glenn Davis. Having him on the roster means that we'll be saved from having to see giving minutes to the likes of Sheldon Williams and Brian Scalabrine (sorry, Scal's Pals). Even at this stage of his career, Shaq is clearly an upgrade over them, or any other available big man.
Bringing Shaq to Boston also adds some intriguing storylines to some already fierce rivalries. One of their main rivals is Orlando, where Shaq started his career. He won a title with Dwayne Wade in Miami and spent a disappointing season last year in Cleveland with LeBron. Plus, we all know the well documented history of Shaq with the Lakers, particularly when it comes to Kobe Bryant.
The Shaq signing is more about just what he brings to the court, as he can impact the team in a lot of ways. He's still a big name star in the eyes of many people around the league, so his signing sends a message to the team that despite their financial restrictions they intend to make improvements to this team to help push them towards another title rather than be content with re-signing their own players. He's the type of player fans can get excited about, and so long as he's happy he's got the type of personality and charisma that will do well in a city like Boston. This team already has plenty of leaders, so he won't be expected to take on that role, but he is a veteran that knows how to win. He has 4 rings of his own to prove it.
This team has a limited window to contend before they are forced to rebuild around Rondo in two years. They have to go all in to try to win before then, which means they will have to take some risks. There's no doubt that there are some big risks involved with signing Shaq, but if he stays relatively healthy and can show he has something left in the tank than the reward may be that he plays a key part in helping this team raise Banner #18.
Whether it is a good move for Boston or not remains to be seen.
Shaq certainly comes with his share of baggage. He's been known to put his ego ahead of his teammates (ask Kobe) and is no stranger to conflict and controversy. It's no secret that he's burned bridges on his way out of Orlando, LA, Miami and Phoenix. He's perhaps the biggest personality in the NBA, joining a locker room that's already full of some big personalities. Doc Rivers will certainly have his hands full juggling all of them this season.
Shaq showed last season in Cleveland that he is capable of doing what nobody thought he could do - play second fiddle to another star. But that star happened to be Lebron James, the reigning MVP and arguably the best player on the planet. Not even Shaq's ego could have allowed him to think that he could take over and make the Cavs his team. He said and did all the right things to be a team player and let LeBron run the show. Can we expect to see the same in Boston? For all the talent in this lineup, there is no superstar the caliber of LeBron. The Celtics Big Three of Pierce, Allen and Garnett are all aging veteran's in a similar situation as Shaq. It's hard to believe that Shaq sees himself as anything less than being on their level, so how will he respond to being a role player off the bench? A cranky Shaq that feels like he's not involved enough can be a disruptive force.
There's also the obvious fact that Shaq is no longer the dominant force he once was. He's 38 years old and gaining weight by the minute. We had to listen to announcers last year claim what a boost Rasheed Wallace would be once he works his way back into game shape. How many games will Shaq need to play himself into shape?
The good thing for the Celtics is that they aren't expecting the player that has averaged 24 points and 11 rebounds per game in his career. They would be content with the 12 ppg and 6 rpg he contributed to Cleveland last year. At this point in his career it's not about the stats that he puts up, it's more about the intimidating presence he makes on the court.
With the injury to Kendrick Perkins that could keep him out for half the season, as well as the impending retirement of Rasheed Wallace, the Celtics found themselves in need of some big bodies. The problem was, they had no cap room to acquire them with. Jermaine O'Neal was a nice pick-up with their mid-level exception. At that price he becomes a low risk/high reward type of player that should be able to replace Sheed's production (and then some) if he's healthy. But he wouldn't be enough by himself.
Getting Shaq at a minimum contract was a move the Celtics had to make. He gives them a legitimate force in the paint to match up against opponents like Dwight Howard. Part of the reason the Celtics were unable to hold back the Lakers in last year's Finals was because of the size difference (especially after Perk got injured). The combination of Gasol, Bynum and Odom was just too much size and length for the Celtics to deal with, and they got killed on the boards because of it. Shaq will help even the odds and tip the scales a litte more in Boston's direction, so to speak. The other thing to keep in mind is that the Eastern Conference's new super power, the Miami Heat, lacks interior size. Boston's ability to run the O'Neal's and Perkins at them is an advantage they can look to exploit.
It's been many years since Shaq has been considered a dominant force on the defensive end. It's been 5 years since he had a season where he averaged over 2 blocks per game, and he continues to get killed on the pick and roll plays. His biggest attribute on defense will be his big body that he can use to push opponents away from the basket. Smaller guards often think twice before driving into the paint with him there, fearing a collision that would be like hitting a brick wall (ok, so these days it may feel like hitting a wall of jello, but still can't be fun). The Celtics are a great defensive team, so having guys like Rondo, Pierce and Garnett on the floor will help protect Shaq from getting exposed on defense when he's on the floor.
His role in the offense will be a mixed bag. The Celtics like to push the ball when they get rebounds to try to score in transition, with Rondo leading the charge at break-neck speeds. As we saw in Phoenix, Shaq just won't be able to keep up with this pace, even in limited minutes. Then again, Sheed wasn't ever one to hustle up the court either, and we at least won't have to worry about Shaq throwing up bricks from three point range, so there is an upgrade there. Shaq is more suited to do what Sheed should have done more of - park himself near the paint and score close to the basket. His size and ability to finish at the rim will be a huge asset for a team that often struggled when they were forced to work in a half court offense. Instead of watching Pierce try to go Iso, dribbling for a bit before jacking up a fallaway jumper, they will now have the option to throw it down low to a legitimate post presence. Jermaine O'Neal's offense game is on the decline, and the team struggled when it wasn't able to trust Perkins on offense last year. They now have a force that can score inside at will and draw fouls. Even if he can't make his free throws he can at least get teams into foul trouble if they try playing Hack-A-Shaq. Besides, it's not like Rondo makes his free throws either.
Health will once again be a major storyline for the Celtics this season. The Big Three have all had their injury issues, which are only more likely to become an issue as they continue to get older. Perkins of course is the major injury that they will have to deal with from the start, and the two O'Neals they got to help replace him have their own history of injuries. Shaq only played in 53 games last season, averaging just over 23 minutes per game. The team needs both O'Neals to stay healthy, at least until Perkins comes back, and could struggle if more than one of the three is out for an extended period of time.
Shaq has gotten picked on by fans and the media in recent years for being a shadow of his former self. That happens when you get old and start to slow down, and for a player of his caliber the drop off can be more drastic. However, he is still capable of contributing, and playing for a contender will help keep him motivated. What would have been the alternatives? If you think Shaq is a mistake, would you have gotten excited over Kwame Brown or Josh Boone? Without any cap room to work with, the options were limited. It should be looked at as a major coup that GM Danny Ainge was able to convince Shaq to come here for cheap. When the team is full healthy (knock on wood that this actually happens) he will become one of the big men in the rotation off the bench, along with Jermaine O'Neal and Glenn Davis. Having him on the roster means that we'll be saved from having to see giving minutes to the likes of Sheldon Williams and Brian Scalabrine (sorry, Scal's Pals). Even at this stage of his career, Shaq is clearly an upgrade over them, or any other available big man.
Bringing Shaq to Boston also adds some intriguing storylines to some already fierce rivalries. One of their main rivals is Orlando, where Shaq started his career. He won a title with Dwayne Wade in Miami and spent a disappointing season last year in Cleveland with LeBron. Plus, we all know the well documented history of Shaq with the Lakers, particularly when it comes to Kobe Bryant.
The Shaq signing is more about just what he brings to the court, as he can impact the team in a lot of ways. He's still a big name star in the eyes of many people around the league, so his signing sends a message to the team that despite their financial restrictions they intend to make improvements to this team to help push them towards another title rather than be content with re-signing their own players. He's the type of player fans can get excited about, and so long as he's happy he's got the type of personality and charisma that will do well in a city like Boston. This team already has plenty of leaders, so he won't be expected to take on that role, but he is a veteran that knows how to win. He has 4 rings of his own to prove it.
This team has a limited window to contend before they are forced to rebuild around Rondo in two years. They have to go all in to try to win before then, which means they will have to take some risks. There's no doubt that there are some big risks involved with signing Shaq, but if he stays relatively healthy and can show he has something left in the tank than the reward may be that he plays a key part in helping this team raise Banner #18.
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