Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Things I Noticed: Week 11

The last of the unbeaten teams falling and a controversial Monday Night game led to an exciting and memorable week.  Seattle became the first team to 10 wins, but are one of only four teams that have yet to have their bye week.

Bye weeks: Dallas, St. Louis

Here are some things I noticed this week:
  • While it didn't take another dramatic game winning drive for Andrew Luck this time, the Colts still had to dig themselves out of an early hole to beat the Titans.  Tennessee led by 14 points after the first quarter before the Colts rallied from their slow start.  Adam Vinatieri nailed a field goal as time expired in the first half to kick off a string of 20 unanswered points to put Indy ahead.  The Colts will take a win regardless of when the points are scored, but these slow starts are a troubling sign for a team headed for the postseason.  They are likely to run into stronger defenses in the playoffs that will make coming back from early deficits much more difficult.
  • Tight End Colby Fleener had a career day, with 8 catches for 107 yards to lead Colts receivers.  With Reggie Wayne lost for the season, Luck will need more than just T.Y. Hilton to step up to fill the void, so it was good to see another receiving threat start to emerge.
  • The early hole was thanks to Chris Johnson, who scored twice in the first quarter.  That doubled his
    TD production, as he also scored twice two weeks ago, but has been shut out of the end zone in every other game this season. There aren't many staring RBs in the league with this frustrating kind of boom or bust potential.
  • Geno Smith played his way onto the bench with a miserable performance.  The Jets rookie QB completed only 8 of 23 pass attempts for 103 yards while turning the ball over four times.  Two of his INTs were returned by the Bills for scores the other way.  His Total QBR was 0.7!  Despite being benched late in the game, the QB change is unlikely to be permanent, but ugly outings like this must have Jets fans missing the Mark Sanchez era (ok, maybe not).
  • Buffalo's defense was so dominant that the offense wasn't required to do much, but EJ Manuel managed to chip in 245 yards and 2 TDs, despite missing a couple of his main receiving options (including Stevie Johnson).  
  • Tornado warnings in the Chicago area delayed the Bears and Ravens game for nearly two hours mid-way through the first quarter (check out this video of the huge twister and the damage it ravaged on Illinois!).  Baltimore led by 10 at the time of the delay and went on to lose, which clearly means that Roger Goodell conspired with Mother Nature to cause the delay in order to stall the Ravens momentum.  
  • Or it could have been an ugly pick-six thrown by Joe Flacco that shifted the momentum in Chicago's favor.  Josh McCown may not have been lighting it up while filling in for the injured Jay Cutler, but he was efficient and avoided turnovers, which proved to be the difference.  
  • Of course the game with the long delay would end up going to overtime.  When accounting for the weather delay, this has to be one of the longest games in league history!
  • Just when we had all given up on Ray Rice, he finally breaks out with a vintage performance (131 yards, 1 TD).  It's the first 100+ yard game of the season for Rice, who averaged 5.2 yards per carry in the game.  His season average is only 3.0 and his previous game high was a mediocre 3.4 per carry.
  • The Bengals defense has been hit hard with injuries to Geno Atkins and Leon Hall this season, but even without them they still managed to put up a dominant performance.  The Cincinnati defense forced four turnovers, including a fumble that they returned for a score.  On special teams the Bengals also blocked a punt that was returned for another score during a second quarter where they put up a franchise record 31 points.
  • Early on it looked like Cleveland's defense was the dominant one, after a pick-six from Joe Haden gave the Browns an early 13-0 lead in the first quarter, but their offense wouldn't cooperate to hold the lead.  Not only could they not stop turning the ball over, but the drives that didn't end with a turnover mostly ended in punts.  Jason Campbell did find Josh Gordon on a deep pass for a 74 yard score, but that's about all the Browns offense accomplished after the first quarter, so by that point the game was already out of reach.
    • Despite the overall terrible play of the rest of the team, Haden had an outstanding game.  Not only did he come up with that pick-six, but he also limited A.J. Green to only 2 catches for 7 yards.  
  • Nick Foles wasn't able to throw any more TD passes this week, but he did run one into the end zone himself to get the Eagles out to an early lead and LeSean McCoy would help put Washington away with a pair of 1-yard scores.  The Eagles moved to 6-5, putting them at the top of the NFC East and giving the league hope that this pitiful division might actually end up with a team that has a winning record!
  • Robert Griffin III led a 4th quarter comeback attempt with two long TD passes (62 yards to Darrell Young and 41 yards to Aldrick Robinson), while adding the two-point conversion after each score. That put Washington within striking distance late in the game, down 8 and desperately needing to duplicate another score and and two-point conversion.  Washington drove down to the Eagles 27 yard line with under a minute to play before RGIII threw an INT in the end zone to clinch the Eagles victory.  
  • A losing record.  Trade rumors.  An offensive line that can't protect him.  Ben Roethlisberger has had
    enough and it was time to take thing into his own hands and carry the team on his back.  He did just that, throwing for 367 yards and 4 TDs, including two of them in the final five minutes of the game, to stun the Lions.  
  • Matched up against Megatron and the Lions, the Steelers countered by dressing like Bumble Bee to keep the Transformers theme going.  Wow, those throwback uniforms are awful.
  • Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson were each on pace to shatter single game yardage records in the first half, but the script was flipped after halftime.  Stafford (362 yards, 2 TDs) failed to complete a pass in the 4th quarter as the Steelers staged a comeback against him.  Calvin had a beastly 179 yards and 2 scores at intermission, but failed to reel in a single reception in the second half.
  • Those Tampa Bay Bucs are on a roll with two wins in a row!  Ok, so it's their only two wins of the season, but if they can finish the season on a good note then it could go a long way towards saving Greg Schiano's job.  After beating Atlanta they now find themselves tied in the NFC South basement, so at least there is a silver lining in site that they might not finish in last.
  • What is going on with the Bucs running game?  Doug Martin entered the season with sky high expectations in his second year, but was a mild disappointment before suffering a season ending injury last month.  Mike James became a pleasant surprise before going down with an injury of his own last week.  So of course the next guy in line, Bobby Rainey, comes out of nowhere with the best performance of anyone from their backfield.  Rainey delivered the most shocking line of the week with 163 yards and 2 TDs, while tacking on a short TD reception for good measure.  
    • It figures that the highest scoring player of the week in fantasy leagues was a guy that almost nobody started.
  • Has it really come to this for Atlanta - Matt Ryan getting benched in the fourth quarter?  Trailing by 28 points and having just thrown his second INT of the game, Ryan found himself riding the pine.  You may not even have noticed, since he ended up coming back in after backup Dominique Davis limped off with an injury.  By that time Davis had already led a TD drive and marched the offense down to the verge of the red zone.  Ryan would finish off the drive with a TD pass to Roddy White to pull within two scores and make the final score a bit more respectable, but most of that comeback came without Ryan.
  • Carson Palmer put up a big performance (419 yards, 2 TDs) in the Cardinals victory.  Now before
    you get too excited, keep in mind that it came against Jacksonville's defense, which seemed incapable of making a tackle.  Michael Floyd took a simple slant route on 3rd and 10 and broke three tackles on his way to a 91-yard TD.  That's the longest TD reception in the league this season.  
  • At least Jacksonville had a brief moment of feeling victorious by scoring on the opening drive to take an early lead.  Chad Henne found Danny Noble for a 62-yard TD to give the Jaguars... wait for it... their first TD in a home game all season!  Seriously, it took them four home games to finally find the end zone.  Technically they scored a TD in a "home" game earlier this season, but that occurred in London.  Just to prove it was no fluke, Maurice Jones-Drew added another score at the end of the first quarter.  Two TDs for the Jagaurs in the same game at home?  Someone stop these guys!
    • Ok, someone did stop these guys.  The Arizona defense not only shut out Jacksonville in the second half, but held them to only 57 yards after halftime.
  • Wait a minute, could it be? Yes, that's Matt Schuab's music!  Schaub is back!  Case Keenum played poorly enough to allow Schaub to reclaim his job.  At least for now.  The competition remains open going forward.  Schuab entered in the 4th quarter and led a pair of field goal drives when the team was in need of touchdowns, so it's not like he was overly convincing that he deserves his job back. The Texans crowd also greeted him like a heel rather than a returning hero, so that's probably not a good sign.  They even had to switch to using silent counts at one point on offense because their home crowd was booing Schuab so much.  While he didn't lead any TD drives, at least he didn't throw any TDs to the other team this time, so perhaps that's progress.
  • Who the heck is Matthew McGloin?  He was the new Raiders QB, filling in for the injured Terrell Pryor.  In leading a successful victory (197 yards, 3 TDs) it may even open the door for him to continue to start even after Pryor is healthy.  
  • In the shadow of a harassment scandal that has shaken the team's locker room, the struggling Dolphins took a step toward getting back on track with a victory over the Chargers to get back to .500 on the season.  Brent Grimes broke up a pass in the end zone to end Philip Rivers last shot at a comeback.  It was a pivotal game in the Wild Card race, as the Dolphins (5-5) sit just outside the last playoff spot, while the Chargers (4-6) sink back toward the bottom of the AFC.
  • Ryan Mathews had his best game of the season with 127 yards, while averaging an impressive 6.7 yards per carry.  A large chunk of his production came on a 51 yard run to start a drive late in the third quarter that would eventually lead to a field goal.  Mathews has been a model of inconsistency this season, rushing for 100+ yards in 3 of his last 5 games, while essentially disappearing for the majority of other games.
  • Garrett Hartley kicked three field goals on consecutive drives for the Saints, with the last coming as time expired to lift New Orleans over the 49ers.  Hartley had missed four of his last six attempts over the prior three games, but came through in the clutch this week.  
  • The second field goal, which tied the game late in the 4th quarter, came on a drive where Drew Brees lost a fumble on a vicious sack that drew a personal foul flag for a blow to the head of the quarterback.  The penalty negated the turnover and gave the Saints a first down at the Niners 30 yard line.  A few plays later we had a tie game.
  • As much as Colin Kaepernick would like to spread the ball around more, Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin are proving to be his only reliable targets.  Each of them caught a TD pass in the game and remain the only ones to catch a TD pass from Kaepernick all season.  The impending return of his top receiver from last year should help, but it remains to be seen how effective Michael Crabtree will be coming off an Achilles injury or how long it will take him to get up to speed once he comes back.  It's possible he could be activated as early as next week, which would give him over a month's worth of games to ramp up before the playoffs begin.
  • Don't look now, but the Giants have won four in a row to leap out of the basement in the NFC East and remain one game back in the loss column for the division lead.  Of course they haven't exactly had the most daunting schedule over this stretch.  They beat a couple of losing teams in the Vikings and Raiders, which isn't exactly something to get overly excited about.  The win over the Eagles could be huge for them in this division race, but it came before the Nick Foles era exploded.  Michael Vick was injured in that game and Matt Barkley took over with miserable results.  Philadelphia is a much better team than they were in that game.  Now this week they beat a Packers team that, without Aaron Rodgers, was forced to start a practice squad quarterback making his first career start.  So no, this does not prove the Giants are suddenly good again.  It just means they aren't playing as awful as they were to start the season and are capable of at least beating bad teams.  But with a few more bad teams on their schedule, it's still conceivable they could pull out ahead in this weak division and we've seen before what happens if they can get on a roll late in the season heading into the playoffs.
  • Another good sign that the Giants are getting back on track - their run defense is playing well again. Rookie Eddie Lacy has been one of the league's best rushers this season, but the Giants held him to only 27 yards on 14 carries.  Sure, they were able to load the box against him and force Scott Tolzien to try to beat them instead, which has been the case for most of this win streak, but rising to 7th in the league in rushing yards allowed is nothing to scoff at either.
  • Percy Harvin made his Seahawks debut to face his former team, as Seattle crushed the Vikings. Harvin was understandably on a limited snap count, but did manage one outstanding catch that went for 17 yards and also returned a 58-yard punt.
  • It wasn't a huge yardage day for either Russell Wilson or Marshawn Lynch, but that's partly because
    both sat for the majority of the 4th quarter of the blowout.  Wilson still passed for two TDs, one of which was to Lynch, while Lynch also ran in two himself.
  • After a pair of awful decisions from Christian Ponder that led to fourth quarter turnovers, the Vikings benched their QB for Matt Cassel.  I have a feeling we aren't done this season hearing the "Vikings have benched quarterback A for quarterback B."  
  • Denver snapped the Chiefs undefeated streak to move back into the top spot in the AFC West.  The Chiefs defense did hold the Broncos to a season low 27 points, but it wasn't enough.  To keep up with Denver's juggernaut offense, the Chiefs needed more from their own offense.  In his career, Manning is nearly unbeatable in games where the opponent scores less than 21 points.
  • Not that Manning has any shortage of options available in the passing game, but Wes Welker exiting with a concussion has to be a concern.   He'll be re-evaluated later in the week and need to pass all the concussion protocols before determining if he'll be cleared for his much anticipated return to New England next week. 
  • Trailing by 10 in the second quarter against the league's highest scoring team, Kansas City kicked a field goal on 4th and goal from the one yard line.  When you get that close against this Denver team, you need to get the touchdown.  Later in the 4th quarter, trailing by 14, the Chiefs punted on 4th and 7... from Denver's 41 yard line.  The punt resulted in a touch back, so all that accomplished was pushing Denver back 21 yards without the benefit of a reasonable chance for a first down had they kept the offense on the field.  Conservative coaching decisions doomed the Chiefs.
  • Jamaal Charles had his lowest output of the season, with 72 total yards (which includes -6 receiving yards).  Last week against Buffalo was the first time all season Charles failed to reach 100+ total yards, but at least he came close enough with 96.  Against Denver he wasn't close.  He also hasn't scored in his last three games, after scoring at least TD in each of his first 7 games.
  • The Panthers held on to survive against the Patriots thanks to a controversial call on the last play of the game.  New England got the ball back for one last drive with under a minute remaining, trailing by four and needing a TD.  Tom Brady led the Patriots down to the Carolina 18 yard line with mere seconds remaining.  With time for only one last play, Brady dropped back and tossed a pass under pressure into the end zone.  Rob Gronkowski was in the area, but a Panthers defender wrapped his arms around him and drove him backwards while the ball was in the air, allowing Robert Lester to sweep in and intercept the pass in the spot Gronk should have been.  A flag was thrown for pass interference, but after huddling together, the referees inexplicably overruled the call and picked up the flag, ending the game.  The cowardly refs then made a mad dash off the field, without bothering to provide an explanation for the shocking decision, as a fuming Brady chased after them in protest. 
    • Referee Clete Blakeman later explained his decision to pick up the flag, explaining that they felt a penalty was not warranted because the ball was not catchable since it was intercepted and Gronkowski was not close enough to have made a play for it.  No kidding!  The reason Gronk wasn't close enough to make the catch himself was because he was getting tackled while the ball was in the air!  The defender impeded his path to the ball, which is essentially what pass interference means!   The backlash following the game was nearly exclusively in favor of the Patriots.  The Monday Night Football crew was baffled by the call.  Steve Young and Tim Hasselbeck re-enacted the play in the post game show to illustrate why it was a penalty.  ESPN held a nationwide poll asking fans for their thoughts and every state in the country voted that the refs got the call wrong... except North Carolina of course (although the vote in that state was closer than you'd expect, with only 52% of voters saying it was the right call).
    • Former NFL VP of Officiating (and current Fox analyst) Mike Pereira tweeted: "Since the flag was thrown they should have stayed with the call.  There was clear contact before the ball was intercepted."  This guy is never wrong.
  • To be clear, had the refs not picked up the flag it would not necessarily have meant the Patriots would have won.  Even though time had run out, the game can't end on a penalty, so the Patriots would have been allowed one untimed play from the Carolina 1-yard line.  There is no guarantee they would have been able to punch it into the end zone with only one chance, but what are the odds that they would have been able to gain 1 yard?  70%?  80%?  NFL teams have converted two-point conversions about 52% of the time this season, which presents a similar situation except in those cases the attempt comes from the two yard line.  New England would be a yard closer, heavily increasing those odds. That percentage also factors in terrible offenses that have tried and failed (Jacksonville is predictably 0-2 on two-point conversions this year).  That Panthers defense is very good, but New England managed a healthy 4.3 yards per carry in the game.  They should get the benefit of the doubt that the most likely outcome would have been a Patriots victory if the penalty were called correctly.  The referee's misinterpreted the rule, which cost New England a victory for the second time this season (the first coming on the bizarre ending a few weeks ago in the Jets game).
  • A non-call may have cost New England the game, but several penalties they committed were also
    responsible for the loss.  Aqib Talib continued his fierce rivalry with Panthers receiver Steve Smith, which dates back to Talib's time in Tampa.  There's plenty of bad blood between these two and unfortunately for the Pats, it showed on the field.  After Smith was tackled to the ground after a 5-yard reception, Talib refused to release Smith's leg as the receiver attempted to get back to his feet. This led to a shoving match between the two, which resulted in Talib drawing an unnecessary roughness flag for starting the skirmish.  So instead of the Panthers facing third down, they got a first down inside the red zone, which led to Carolina's first TD of the game.  A promising drive in the second quarter stalled after Logan Mankins was called for unnecessary roughness, backing the Pats up 15 yards.  That led to them settling for a field goal, just when it looked like they were in position to become only the second team this season to score a TD in the first half against this Panthers defense. On the Panthers game winning drive late in the 4th quarter, New England's defense stopped them on 3rd down, but Devin McCourty was called for defensive holding.  Technically he never grabbed Greg Olson, but he did stick his arm out to hold him back (although he did a nice acting job of holding his arms out to signal to the officials that his hands weren't touching the receiver).
  • On Ted Ginn's game winning TD catch, Kyle Arrington whiffed on a tackle that a defensive back absolutely has to make.  With Ginn's speed, once he was by him, he was gone.  So as bad as that game ending non-call was, the Patriots made plenty of mistakes earlier to put themselves in that position.  
  • Lost in all the controversy is how great Cam Newton and the Panthers played.  Carolina has been a losing team in each of Newton's first two seasons and after a six game winning streak, league observers are finally starting to look at them as a contender.  Last week's narrow win over the 49ers gave some legitimacy to their streak, as it was the first team with a winning record that they had beaten all year.  Under the bright lights of Monday Night Football against Brady and the Patriots, this was arguably the biggest game of Newton's pro career and he shined with 209 yards and 3 TDs.  He also rushed for 62 yards, extending several drives with first down runs.  On one play, Newton ran back, forth and sideways, eluding tacklers to keep the play alive.  He must have run for close to 75 yards on that play, but only 14 of them were beyond the line of scrimmage.

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