For the third time in my lifetime, I'll have the privilege of seeing my Boston Red Sox play in the World Series. Ok, technically it's the fourth time, but i'm not counting '86 because I was three years old at the time and likely had no clue we were even playing. My enthusiasm (obsession?) for sports has really hit it's peak over the past decade, in which I've already witnessed two championship seasons for my hometown team. Now I'm four wins away from watching another parade through the streets of Boston.
The first time I watched the Red Sox win a title was in 2004, when a fun loving bunch of "idiots" made an improbable comeback in the ALCS and went on the sweep the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series. This time they will face the Cardinals once again with a new group of guys who have a similar theme that ties them together as a group, but instead of being idiots, this team is all about the blood, sweat and beards.
Don't overlook the importance of team chemistry. The 2012 Red Sox sunk into a toxic pit of despair as their clubhouse unraveled under the watch of Bobby Valentine, finishing last in the AL East with a 69-93 season that was the worst this franchise had seen in decades. The drastic turnaround just one year later has been nothing short of spectacular. A blockbuster mega-deal last summer shipped out a quarter of a billion dollars in salary (along with a couple bad apples - looking at you Josh Beckett), freeing up resources and roster spots to bring in high character guys like Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli and Jonny Gomes. John Farrell took over as manager and helped put the finishing touches on righting the ship. Last year's team may have looked better on paper, but this 2013 squad proved the importance of those types of intangibles that don't show up in the box scores by shattering expectations. Few people thought this team would even battle for a playoff spot. Now they are headed to the World Series.
Awaiting them in the Fall Classic are a Cardinals team that comes as close to any in matching up with them in every way. Both teams finished with 97 wins, giving each a one game lead for the best record in their respective leagues. Both teams led their league in runs scored and run differential. Since they met in 2004, the teams have now combined for 7 World Series appearances in the last 9 years. Neither of them have lost on this stage, aside from when they went against each other.
Offense
Boston led the majors in runs scored (853), OBP (.349) and SLG (.446). They have a lineup that will wear pitchers out with tough at-bats that force them to throw a lot of pitches and often draw walks. No hitter in the majors saw more pitchers per plate appearance than Mike Napoli (4.59). As we saw in the ALCS series against Detroit, if they aren't having success against a pitcher then they'll grind out at-bats and drive up that pitch count until they can force them out of the game.
David Ortiz may not end up at the top of many MVP ballots (such is life for a DH), but he was still 4th in the majors in OPS (.959) and added yet another 30 HR, 100+ RBI season to his resume. Big Papi is always a threat in the middle of the lineup, particularly in the postseason. Few active players have more dramatic postseason heroics than Ortiz, who already has 3 HRs this postseason, including a game tying Grand Slam in the ALCS.
Boston can beat you with anyone in their lineup in a variety of ways. They get on base, they can hit home runs, they steal bases and they have knack for getting hits in the clutch. Jacoby Ellsbury, Victorino, Dustin Pedroia and Ortiz are about as formidable a force at the top of the lineup as you'll find, with each of them posting an OBP above .350 this season. Plus, don't count out rookie Xander Bogaerts from having a coming out party on the big stage. The 21 year old phenom has had limited exposure, but he's 3 for 6 with 3 doubles and 5 walks this postseason.
St. Louis may not have scored as many runs this season (783), but they still led the NL by a wide margin. Chalk the difference between them and the Red Sox up to playing in a league that doesn't feature a DH. Make no mistake, the Cardinals have an American League caliber lineup, with few holes. Unlike most NL teams, when the Cardinals begin this series at Fenway Park, they actually will have a quality DH on hand. Allen Craig was in the running for NL MVP until a foot injury cost him the last month of the season. He still managed a team high 97 RBIs, while hitting .315/.373/.457. He has been activated for this series and will serve as the DH for the games in Boston and be available off the bench to pinch hit when the series swings to St. Louis. It remains to be seen how rusty he will be after so much time off or how the foot injury is still impacting him (they say it's good enough for him to hit, but good enough to do much else), but he should still provide a better quality at-bat than most NL teams would have to fill that spot.
As feared a postseason hitter as Big Papi is, Carlos Beltran may have an even more impressive playoff resume. He's a career .337/.449/.724 hitter in the postseason and his 16 HRs are the third most hit in the postseason among active players (wait, are we still considering Derek Jeter as "active"?).
Matt Carpenter led the majors in runs scored (126) by a wide margin and is one of the game's more underrated players. His 6.6 WAR was 9th best in the majors, yet a lot of people outside of St. Louis haven't even heard of him. Add in solid veterans like Matt Holiday and Yadier Molina and this is a very deep lineup, but it falls a little short of Boston's.
The biggest flaw for the Red Sox offense is that they won't have the luxury of the DH when the games are in St. Louis. Ortiz will have to play first base, but that means Napoli can be used for little more than pinch hitting. That significantly weakens the lineup, but on the bright side, the Cardinals have the same issue with Craig and the majority of the games will likely be at Fenway anyway.
Edge: Red Sox
Starting Pitching
Boston will trot out four horses in their rotation that can match up with just about anyone. Jon Lester is the ace of the staff. A rough patch in June inflated his final numbers, but after the All-Star break he was one of the best pitchers in the league, posting a 2.57 ERA in the second half. He's been even better in the postseason, giving up no more than two runs in any of this three starts.
Clay Buchholz would have easily lead the majors in ERA (1.74) if he had pitched enough innings to qualify, but two months on the disabled list took him out of the running. He picked up right where he left of when he was activated for four September starts. He's been a little shaky in the postseason and may struggle to go deep into games as he is still working to regain his stamina due to all that time off. John Lackey will get the start in Game 2 due to his home/road splits showing how much more dominant he has been at Fenway this season. That 10-13 regular season record is very misleading, considering he had the best ERA (3.52) of any eligible starter for the team with the best record in baseball. Then there's Jake Peavvy, who was acquired mid-season to solidify the rotation. His best days may be behind him, but if you have a former Cy Young award winner as your fourth starter, you're in pretty good shape.
Just like in the last series against Detroit, the Red Sox will be facing a staff full of power pitchers. While Boston's rotation may be deeper, the Cardinals have arguably the best starter on either staff in Adam Wainwright. Sure, we said the same thing about the Tigers staff, but unlike their ace pitchers, Wainwright doesn't walk hitters (only 35 walks in 241.2 innings this season). He pounds the strike zone, so when he's on his game he doesn't give you a lot of ways to beat him. He's one of few pitchers in the game capable of throwing a complete game while keeping his pitch count to under 100.
Michael Wacha has been a sensation in the second half and into the postseason. Through the first two rounds of the playoffs, Wacha is 3-0 and has given up only one run in 21.0 innings. Oh, and that one run that was scored against him came back in the NLDS, when he gave up a home run in the 8th inning... to break up a no-hitter! Joe Kelly is a hard throwing righty that averages about 95 MPH on his fastball, yet somehow only strikes out 5.73 batter per nine innings. Lance Lynn started out the season great, then tumbled into mediocrity for most of the season, before rebounding with a strong September. He was lit up by the Pirates in his first postseason start, but solid in his last start against the Dodgers. So basically, they have no idea what to expect from him.
St. Louis has a better top two, but if Lester can step up to match toe-to-toe with Wainwright in potentially two match ups this series, I like the Sox depth in the rest of the rotation to even things out.
Slight edge: Red Sox
Bullpen
There may not have been a more dominant closer in baseball than Koji Uehara this season. He led all major league relievers (minimum 40 innings) with a 1.09 ERA and also led in strikeout-to-walk ratio (11.22), opponents' batting average (.130), opponents' OBP (.163) and opponents' OPS (.400). He set a club record by retiring 37 straight batters and went over two months without give up a run! Not bad for a guy that was third on the closer depth chart to start the season and was only handed the job when the guys ahead of him were lost to season ending injuries.
The middle relief is where the Red Sox may find themselves vulnerable. Craig Breslow and Junichi Tazawa have been effective as setup men this postseason, giving up only one run in a combined 12.0 innings. Yet if the Sox starters can't get at least into the 7th inning, who can they trust? Brandon Workman hasn't given up a run in his 5.1 innings this postseason, but he was inconsistent during the regular season and lacks a track record. The last time we saw Franklin Morales he couldn't find the strike zone and was pulled after facing two batters and failing to record an out. The rest of the options are guys that are typically starters, but weren't good enough to make the postseason rotation, like Felix Doubront and Ryan Dempster. The game will have to be pretty out of hand for us to see either of them this series.
The Cardinals bullpen is pretty good, so the Red Sox won't be able to feast on them the way they did Detroit's bullpen. Edward Mujica was one of the game's best closers for most of the season, before hitting a wall and losing the role to rookie Trevor Rosenthal in September. Mujica has only been used for two innings so far in the postseason, giving up one run, so it remains to be seen how much he will contribute, but Rosenthal has been lights out in his 7 shutout innings.
The Cardinals bullpen has a couple of tough lefties to use against guys like Ellsbury and Ortiz, which will be important considering all of their starting pitchers are right handed. Randy Choate is more of a lefty specialist that may come in just to get a key out or two against left handed hitters, but Kevin Siegrist is nearly as effective against hitters from either of the plate. They also have to rely on John Axford, who is attempting to salvage his career after imploding as Milwaukee's closer earlier this year.
Boston's closer might be the best reliever in the league right now, but St. Louis has a guy in the role that can more than hold his own. The Cardinals have better depth, so if a Sox starter fails to go deep into a game, the Cardinals may be able to exploit the weakness of Boston's middle relief.
Edge: Cardinals
Base Running
Boston stole 123 bases this season, good for fourth in the majors, but their stolen base percentage (87%) set an American League record. Ellsbury leads the way with a major league leading 52, but they have some additional speed at the top of the order with Victorino and Pedroia both capable of swiping a bag when needed. They can also bring in Quintin Berry, who has 24 career steals without ever getting caught, off the bench to pinch run late in the game.
The Cardinals are at the other end of the spectrum, as they only stole a total of 45 bases all season (29th in the majors), at a 67% rate. Stealing bases clearly isn't their strength. What they can do though is move runners along with sacrifice hits, which is fairly typical for an NL team. The Red Sox hardly ever sacrifice, so it's no surprise that the Cardinals did so successfully more than twice as many times. Don't expect to see the Sox bunting too often unless a pitcher is at the plate, but the Cardinals can pull out a few tricks with several players in their lineup.
The difference maker here is that as great as the Red Sox are at stealing bases, the Cardinals have a catcher that is one of the best in the league at throwing out runners. Yadier Molina throws out about half the runners that dare to run on him, which should make any team cautious about even trying it. The Sox are a much better base running team, but they may not get to use that to their advantage much.
Edge: Red Sox
Defense
Both teams are separated by mere percentage points in fielding percentage, so that's essentially a wash. The Red Sox have premium defenders up the middle, with Pedroia and Stephen Drew in the infield, while Ellsbury and Victorino essentially give the team two center fielders patrolling the outfield. Pedroia led all second baseman in defensive WAR (2.3), while Ellsbury and Victorino were two of the best among AL outfielders and Drew was solidly above average.
Molina (2.1 dWAR) is one of the game's best defensive catchers and Carpenter is solid at several positions. However, all three of the Cardinal's starting outfielders provided negative value according to dWAR and regardless of who's on first, they aren't getting a plus defender there either.
Edge: Red Sox
The last time these teams squared off in October, the Red Sox swept in four games, but these teams are too evenly matched for that to happen again. However, it does look like Boston has an edge (even if it's only slightly) in most areas, which is why I'm picking them to win their third World Series title of the decade.
Prediction: Red Sox in 6 Games.
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