Friday, July 12, 2013

Who should be All-Stars?

MLB presents it's midsummer classic next week to showcase the game's brightest stars.  Well, that's the intention anyway.  Every year we see players get snubbed in favor of less deserving ones.  The fan vote has a lot to do with this, as it often becomes a popularity contest rather than an indication of the league's best (well at least Derek Jeter didn't get voted in this year).  The illogical rule that still forces rosters to include at least one player from every team is another reason.  Seriously, do we really have to include anyone from the Padres or Astros?

The ballots are already in and the teams have been announced, but let's take a look at how these All-Star rosters should have looked like.
American League

Catcher
Fan vote: Joe Mauer 
Reserves: Jason Castro, Salvador Perez
My picks: Joe Mauer (.316/.397/.465, 8 HR, 32 RBI, 3.9 WAR)
Jason Castro (.266/.330/.474, 12 HR, 31 RBI, 2.3 WAR) 

The fans got this one right, as Mauer is far and away the best catcher in the AL.  There is a steep drop off after that, but Castro is an acceptable choice as a backup.  Especially since we had to find a way to squeeze in an Astro somewhere.  Otherwise the case could be made for Carlos Santana stealing that spot.  He's slowed down considerably after a torrid start to the season, knocking him down to the honorable mention category.  

First Base
Fan vote: Chris Davis
Reserves: Prince Fielder
My picks: Chris Davis (.310/.388/.696, 34 HR, 86 RBI, 4.0 WAR)
Prince Fielder (.267/.363/.463, 16 HR, 69 RBI, 0.8 WAR)

Somewhat surprising that the fans voted in Davis over the more popular Fielder, but it's clearly the correct choice.  Good job, fans!  Davis has been mashing throughout his breakout season, leading the majors in HRs and trailing only Miguel Cabrera in RBIs and Runs Created.  That average is likely to continue to steadily drop, but the power is legit.  Fielder has been a mild disappointment by his lofty standards and is a negative value on the defensive side, but the 1B pool in the AL isn't nearly as deep as it used to be, so he's an easy choice as a reserve.  

Second Base
Fan vote: Robinson Cano
Reserves: Dustin Pedroia, Jason Kipnis, Ben Zobrist
My picks: Robinson Cano (.299/.381/.535, 21 HR, 62 RBI, 4.7 WAR)
Dustin Pedroia (.316/.396/.437, 6 HR, 53 RBI, 4.4 WAR)
Jason Kipnis (.290/.375/.506, 13 HR, 54 RBI, 3.8 WAR)

Close call between Cano and Pedroia for the starting spot.  The Sox fan in me really wanted to find a way to push the Laser Show to the top, but Pedroia's edge in hits, average, runs and steals isn't large enough to overcome the gap in power.  He may be a better defensive player, but Cano is no slouch with the glove either.  The underrated Kipnis doesn't trail far behind.  It goes to show how deep the AL is at this position when a talent like Ian Kinsler doesn't even warrant consideration (granted, some missed playing time hurt his cause).  Zobrist is having a fine season, but adding a fourth 2B would have prevented me from adding more deserving players at other deep positions.  His position flexibility will surely come in handy though.

Third Base
Fan vote: Miguel Cabrera
Reserves: Manny Machado
My Picks: Miguel Cabrera (.366/.457/.682, 30 HR, 94 RBI, 5.3 WAR)
Manny Machado (.315/.343/.480, 7 HR, 45 RBI, 5.1 WAR)
Evan Longoria (.284/.362/.518, 18 HR, 51 RBI, 3.6 WAR)
Adrian Beltre (.318/.360/.544, 20 HR, 53 RBI, 3.2 WAR)
Josh Donaldson (.313/.384/.524, 15 HR, 58 RBI, 4.2 WAR)

One of the more obvious choices for a starter also happens to come from the league's deepest position.  Reigning MVP Miguel Cabrera is on pace to shatter his numbers from last season and has the chance to become the only player ever to win back-to-back Triple Crowns and become only the third player to reach that achievement multiple times in their career.  After Cabrera there are still several deserving candidates.  Machado was deservedly voted in by the players.  If his power numbers seem a bit low for the hot corner it's because he was originally a short stop, forced to switch positions to fill a bigger need for the O's, who already have an All-Star at SS.  Longoria, Beltre and the emerging Donaldson also deserve a spot on this team.  Too tough to cut any one of them, so I'm finding room for them all.

Short Stop
Fan vote: JJ Hardy
Reserves: Jhonny Peralta
My Picks: Jhonny Peralta (.298/.356/.435, 7 HR, 42 RBI, 2.0 WAR)

It's close between Peralta and Hardy, but the Tigers SS has enough of an edge in most categories to overcome the gap in power.  I'm cheating a little here by not picking a reserve, figuring I can slot Machado into his natural position as a backup SS to allow an extra third baseman on the roster instead of Hardy.  It's my roster, I can do what I want to!

Outfield
Fan vote: Mike Trout, Adam Jones, Jose Bautista
Reserves: Nelson Cruz, Alex Gordon, Torii Hunter
My Picks: Mike Trout (.320/.399/.560, 15 HR, 58 RBI, 4.3 WAR)
Adam Jones (.288/.312/.472, 16 HR, 61 RBI, 1.9 WAR)
Jose Bautista (.261/.359/.506, 20 HR, 54 RBI, 2.9 WAR)
Jacoby Ellsbury (.308/.372/.429, 3 HR, 33 RBI, 3.5 WAR)
Alex Gordon (.287/.358/.426, 9 HR, 48 RBI, 2.4 WAR)
Nelson Cruz (.276/.333/.522, 22 HR, 68 RBI, 1.4 WAR)

Trout is showing his rookie season was no fluke as he continues to dominate major league pitching, while providing elite production on the base paths and on defense.  I have no qualms with the other two starters either, as Jones and Bautista have put up All-Star caliber numbers.  I would have put Ellsbury ahead of both of them, but the team is better served with him coming off the bench as a pinch runner and defensive replacement in CF.  I already have Trout as my lead-off hitter to start the game, so Ellsbury can replace him later on.  He replaces Hunter on my roster and I don't know how that choice was even close, aside from the fact that Hunter is very popular with other players.  The questionable selection on the roster is Cruz, who is on the list of players that potentially could be suspended in the Biogenesis case.  Out of principle, I considered leaving him off, but who else would you add in his place - Hunter?  Brett Gardner?  Desmond Jennings, perhaps?  Cruz's numbers dwarf them all, so until he's proven guilty, he stays.

DH
Fan vote: David Ortiz
Reserves: Edwin Encarnacion
My picks: David Ortiz (.327/.412/.629, 19 HR, 65 RBI, 2.9 WAR)
Edwin Encarnacion (.263/.353/.522, 23 HR, 68 RBI, 2.0 WAR)

Ortiz is the no brainer pick here, as is the case almost every year with Big Papi.  He's third in the league in SLG and OPS and his counting stats would look even more impressive if he hadn't missed the first three weeks of the season.  He's in the top 15 in the AL in WAR despite being a DH and receiving no credit for defensive metrics (although in all fairness, forcing him to play defense may actually lower his value).  Encarnacion's numbers are worthy of making the team.  Despite being capable of playing either infield corner spot, he's not very good at either position and is better suited for a DH role (they don't call him E5 for nothing).
Pitchers
* Note: pitchers are not voted in by fans, but by a combination of players and managers.
Player/Manager vote: Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Chris Sale, Justin Masterson, Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, Brett Cecil, Steve Delabar
Injured pitchers that were voted in: Clay Buchholz, Yu Darvish, Jesse Crain
Injury replacements: Bartolo Colon, Matt Moore, Glen Perkins
My picks: Justin Verlander (3.71 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 9.23 K/9, 2.5 WAR)
Max Scherzer (3.06 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 10.63 K/9, 3.9 WAR)
Yu Darvish* (3.02 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 11.84 K/9, 3.1 WAR)
Felix Hernandez (2.69 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 9.37 K/9, 4.2 WAR)
Hisashi Iwakuma (2.97 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 7.67 K/9, 3.5 WAR)
Clay Buccholz* (1.71 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 8.64 K/9, 4.1 WAR)
Chris Sale (2.85 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 9.83 K/9, 4.6 WAR)
Justin Masterson (3.72 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 9.11 K/9, 2.1 WAR)
Bartolo Colon (2.69 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 4.94 K/9, 3.4 WAR)
Hiroki Kuroda** (2.77 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 6.26 K/9, 2.8 WAR)
Mariano Rivera (1.89 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.37 K/9, 1.2 WAR)
Joe Nathan (1.36 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 9.53 K/9, 2.1 WAR)
Glen Perkins (1.93 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 12.40 K/9, 1.2 WAR)
Greg Holland** (1.80 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 15.43 K/9, 1.0 WAR)
Grant Balfour** (1.72 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 9.08 K/9, 1.6 WAR)
Jesse Crain* (0.74 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 11.29 K/9, 2.5 WAR)

* Injured
** Injury replacement

Verlander hasn't been his usual dominant self this year, but he has to still be considered one of the league's best.  Scherzer has had the better season so far and may have joined the former MVP as a co-ace of the Tigers staff.  The Mariners have their own pair of co-aces in King Felix and Iwakuma that may be having even better seasons.  Sale leads all AL pitchers in WAR and has a shot at starting the game.  Masterson's numbers may look a bit high, but the strikeout numbers jump out at you and show he deserves a spot.  Who knows how Colon is still getting by at this elite level with the junk he throws (oh wait, he's on the Biogenesis list too... so I guess we do know how he's doing it).  In his final season, you can't leave Mo off the All-Star team.  Even Yankee haters would like to see him lock down a save in the midsummer classic during his swan song season.  Nathan has been the AL's best closer, so he's a lock too.  We could also use a late inning lefty, so Perkins gets the nod, thanks in part to his high strikeout rate. 
National League

Catcher
Fan vote: Yadier Molina 
Reserves: Buster Posey
My Picks: Buster Posey (.317/.392/.529, 13 HR, 51 RBI, 3.8 WAR)
Yadier Molina (.339/.383/.479, 6 HR, 45 RBI, 3.6 WAR)

Flip these two either way you like.  Molina leads the NL in batting average and is considered the game's best game caller and defensive backstop.  Posey isn't far behind in that regard though, plus he walks more and hits for more power.  He gets the slight edge as the starter, but these two are locks for the team either way.

First Base
Fan vote: Joey Votto
Reserves: Paul Goldschmidt, Allen Craig, Freddie Freeman
My Picks: Paul Goldschmidt (.313/.396/.561, 21 HR, 76 RBI, 4.9 WAR) 
Joey Votto (.319/.431/.506, 15 HR, 41 RBI, 4.1 WAR)
Freddie Freeman (.313/.392/.477, 9 HR, 60 RBI, 2.9 WAR)

With a breakout season that has seen him take over as the face of the Diamondbacks, Goldschmidt deserves the starting spot.  He leads the NL in RBIs and is third in SLG.  I can see the case for Votto, due to his league leading OBP.  He's making the team anyway.  Freddie Freeman was the last player selected, winning  the Fan Vote to elect the 34th man to the roster and he should have been selected as a reserve before that.

Second Base
Fan vote: Brandon Phillips
Reserves: Matt Carpenter, Marco Scutaro
My picks:  Matt Carpenter (.318/.390/.497, 9 HR, 42 RBI, 3.8 WAR) 
Chase Utley (.275/.336/.500, 11 HR, 30 RBI, 2.8 WAR)
Brandon Phillips (.276/.319/.415, 12 HR, 69 RBI, 1.8 WAR)

Carpenter as a starter will surprise most people, but it's a weak crop this year for 2B in the NL.  Utley has been banged up and outside of the lofty RBI total, Phillips has been rather disappointing with his meager on base skills.  He barely makes the cut, despite that this roster probably doesn't need three second basemen.  Carpenter has the flexibility to be moved around to several positions though, which helps the case for keeping all three.

Third Base
Fan vote: David Wright
Reserves: Pedro Alvarez 
My Picks: David Wright (.308/.403/.517, 13 HR, 43 RBI, 5.0 WAR)
Ryan Zimmerman (.275/.355/.467, 11 HR, 51 RBI, 2.2 WAR)

Wright is a lock to be the starter considering he's second in the NL in WAR and has the best all around game of any third baseman in the league.  Zimmerman and Alverez is a close call.  Can't fault the players and managers for going with Alvarez - I just prefer Zimmerman a little more.

Short Stop
Fan vote: Troy Tulowitzki
Reserves: Jean Segura, Everth Cabrera
My Picks: Troy Tulowitzki (.341/.406/.624, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 3.4 WAR)
Jean Segura (.319/.354/.485, 11 HR, 36 RBI, 3.3 WAR)
Everth Cabrera (.292/.368/.400, 4 HR, 25 RBI, 2.6 WAR)

Despite missing nearly a month with a fractured rib, Tulo is the easy choice for the starting spot.  He leads all SS's in AVG, HR's and RBI's.  Segura has come out of nowhere to become the second best SS in the majors.  His average has predictably sunk after a torrid start, but he has decent pop for a middle infielder and is fourth in the majors in steals.  Despite leading the NL in steals, Cabrera probably doesn't really belong on this roster, but we have to have a Padre and he's the only reasonable choice.

Outfield
Fan vote: Carlos Beltran, Carlos Gonzalez, Bryce Harper
Reserves: Domonic Brown, Michael Cuddyer, Carlos Gomez, Andrew McCutchen
My Picks: Carlos Gonzalez (.307/.371/.623, 25 HR, 64 RBI, 4.6 WAR)
Andrew McCutchen (.303/.376/.465, 9 HR, 47 RBI, 4.7 WAR)
Carlos Gomez (.302/.344/.549, 14 HR, 43 RBI, 5.8 WAR)
Bryce Harper (.274/.373/.542, 13 HR, 29 RBI, 1.5 WAR)
Domonic Brown (.281/.325/.550, 23 HR, 64 RBI, 3.0 WAR)
Yasiel Puig (.397/.429/.630, 8 HR, 19 RBI, 2.6 WAR)

Gonzalez has been one of the league's best hitters.  Before you start complaining about the effects of Coors field on hitters, you might want to check out the fact that CarGo is actually hitting better on the road this season!  Speaking of guys named Carlos, Gomez leads the NL in WAR.  That's partly due to his defensive rating, which can be skewed in small sample sizes, but his other numbers are right in line, if not better, than McCutchen's.  Both deserve to be starters.  Harper's numbers probably aren't All-Star worthy, which is why I took him out of a starting spot, but that's partly due to missed playing time due to injury.  He's one of the game's brightest young stars and needs to be showcased in this game.  Brown finally came through on the potential the Phillies have been waiting on for years.  After a slow start, he's exploded with a binge of home runs that has left him second in the league in homers as we approach the break.  I get all the reasons why people don't want to see Puig in an All-Star game (Jonathan Papelbon made his thoughts crystal clear).  He's barely played a month in the majors and there are veterans with longer track records that are more deserving.  I don't care.  This kid is one of the most exciting young players in the game.  Just when we thought we had seen something historical from Mike Trout last year, Puig comes in ready to try to top him.  He's obviously going to drop off at some point, but he clearly has boatloads of talent.  Despite the limited playing time, he's still 9th among NL outfielders in WAR.  Let the kid play!

DH
My Picks: Allen Craig (.329/.374/.494, 10 HR, 71 RBI, 1.6 WAR)
Carlos Beltran (.305/.343/.527, 19 HR, 52 RBI)

I know, the NL doesn't have a DH and doesn't list it on the ballot, but the All-Star game uses the DH regardless of the fact that it's being played in an NL stadium, so I'm putting it on here.  I had Craig and Beltran on my list at 1B and OF respectively, so I'm plugging them into this slot due to those positions being crowded enough as it is.
Pitchers
Player/Manager vote: Clayton Kershaw, Matt Harvey, Adam Wainwright, Cliff Lee, Jordan Zimmermann, Madison Bumgarner, Patrick Corbin, Jose Fernandez, Jeff Locke, Travis Wood, Craig Kimbrell, Aroldis Chapman, Jason Grilli
My Picks: Clayton Kershaw
Matt Harvey
Adam Wainwright
Cliff Lee
Jordan Zimmermann
Stephen Strasburg
Patrick Corbin
Madison Bumgarner
Shelby Miller
Travis Wood
Jason Grilli
Craig Kimbrell
Aroldis Chapman

Kershaw currently holds the Best Pitcher on the Planet belt right now and should be starting this game for the NL.  He leads the NL in ERA and WHIP, while trailing only Harvey in K's.  Speaking of the Mets phenom, he's hot on his trail in the Cy Young race.  Considering the game is being played in Citi Field, Harvey could end up getting the start.  After missing the entire 2011 season with Tommy John surgery, Wainwright looked good last year, but now he's finally back to being one of the elite.  He has by far the league's best K/BB ratio at 9.00.  Lee is second in that category at 5.95, just to give an idea of how dominant Wainwright has been.  Stephen Strasburg gets all the hype, and while he should have still made the team as one of the bright young stars people want to see, Zimmermann has actually been the ace of the National's staff.  The defending champion Giants have struggled this season, but don't blame Bumgarner.  He's the one piece in their once vaunted rotation still delivering at a high level.  Corbin garnered a lot of attention for winning his first 10 decisions of the season.  He only has one win in the past month, but his regression hasn't been too harsh thus far.  Miller was a hyped prospect that is making good on his immense potential in his first full time crack in the starting rotation.  If you aren't a Cubs fan or fantasy baseball owner then you might not know much about Wood, but he's top 10 in the NL in ERA.  He barely beat out Locke for the final SP spot due to a better K/BB ratio.  Journeyman Jason Grilli has finally found himself a home as the Pirates closer.  He leads the NL in saves and he and Chapman are neck-and-neck in the battle for most strikeouts for a reliever.  Kimbrell has been the league's most dominant closer for the past few years and he remains not far from the top.

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